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Summary

• Tehran denes reports of 'technical talks' after it proposed 7-day roadmap to end the war and (eventually) restart nuclear talks.

• Hormuz reopening discussed in exchange for US concessions in NY, including lifting the blockade. 

• Tehran seeks sanctions relief, declares will hold to conditions, including restored oil exports and access to frozen funds.

• US-Iran talks reportedly show progress, with Qatar helping bridge differences.

• Escalation risk remains: Iran threatens a broader response - to 'spread war to Indian Ocean' if attacked again.

The Friday Afternoon Denial

Via state media Fars:

Axios and Al Jazeera's claim about Iran-US talks denied, reports Fars; News regarding another round of talks is false, and claims technical experts from Iran were sent to NY to join the talks, is untrue

This was either the result of more premature or false Axios reporting, or else there's a possible in strategy divergence between IRGC vs. presidential delegation in New York.

'Technical Talks'

Are we back to headline ping-pong pushing down oil prices?

Latest: Iran-US negotiations in New York have moved beyond initial diplomatic contacts into a more detailed technical phase, with sources in Tehran describing the atmosphere as increasingly positive, CBS reports, citing Al Jazeera.

And an official Iranian caution, or possibly even brush off, in reaction... Tehran signaling it intends to stick by its original conditions:

Senior Iranian official says Strait of Hormuz will remain closed, no nuclear talks with US until Iran's conditions are met, Reuters reports, citing sources; Iran will make no concessions on its nuclear program

AJ: A US official told Al Jazeera says Washington is in a strong position and controls the Strait of Hormuz, therefore we are not in a hurry to reach an agreement with Iran

For a rehash of what's played out over the last 24 hours on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly meeting:

• Iran's proposed seven-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the US drops its blockade is being discussed as an accelerated version of a previously discussed 60-day process, and would include urgent measures to get both countries back into direct negotiations over Iran's nuclear programme.
• The key Iranian demands under discussion include sanctions relief, the lifting of restrictions on oil exports and access to frozen Iranian funds.
• The two sides also continue to discuss arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz, including whether Iran and Oman could return to a form of joint management under an agreed framework involving regional countries and the United States, as well as arrangements governing the passage of US vessels.
• Despite the outstanding issues, sources in Tehran characterised the negotiations as making some progress, with talks continuing and Qatar working to bridge differences between the two sides.

Also, President Trump has just said he discussed the Iran conflict with China's Xi.

And crude tumbles...

BUT...

Independent Iranian Journliast Ghaderi reiterates that the narrative presented by some US media is incomplete

A few key points about the latest status of negotiations between #Iran and #America, that show the window for diplomacy is closing. I reiterate that the narrative presented by some US media is incomplete.?? pic.twitter.com/zWriFfoorf

— Mohammad Ghaderi | ???? ????? (@ghaderi62) September 25, 2026

7-Day Roadmap Proposed

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi has newly proposed to the US side a seven-day roadmap aimed at ending the war, while the top Iranian delegation is still in New York City engaged in deep diplomacy on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.

Aragchi is said to be planning to stay through the weekend while waiting on a US response to the plan. So far it seems Tehran hasn't backed down from its core conditions, and its roadmap proposal is said to closely parallel the 14-point Memorandum of Understanding that was signed by President Trump back in June, but which has since completely collapsed. The plan is new but is still being largely seen as just repackaged.

Q: Will you give up the 60% enriched uranium?

Pezeshkian: Yes, within the framework of international law, based on the Nonproliferation Treaty. Whatever we are supposed to adhere to, we will. pic.twitter.com/6v9WqG9AMP

— Clash Report (@clashreport) September 24, 2026

"Araghchi stressed that Iran was ready to begin putting the plan into effect as soon as Washington agreed to it," Al Jazeera reports.

Interestingly, also last night Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told journalists, "We don't want it to get to the midterm elections." He added: "We wish Americans to return to the MoU before the midterms." Here's where things stand in terms of Iran's position being represented in New York:

• Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi said the Strait of Hormuz can reopen if certain conditions are met by the US and that it would be better to implement before the Midterms, according to a Sky reporter.
• IRGC spokesperson warned in the event of another attack, Iran's method of defence will change including geography of the confrontation, the type of equipment and weapons used, and targets in defensive operations in line with new conditions.

This contradicted Trump's words given to the UN General Assembly during his speech. He said "They’re waiting to see how I do in the midterm election."

White House spokesperson Anna Kelly had in follow-up to Trump's address said, "The President is courageously ensuring that such an evil country never possesses a nuclear weapon, which will make the entire world safer and more stable."

Iran has said it will not be 'bullied' - but Pezeshkian appears to be offering something on the nuclear front alongside this seven-day roadmap overture, or at least according to a future timeline assuming a ceasefire is agreed to.

He explained in a Fox interview that in accord the framework of international law, Iran could give eventually up highly enriched uranium. But he was also fundamentally using the moment to highlight who is not a signatory to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty - Israel.

Packaging is new but what's inside is basically the offer that's been on the table for weeks: It's a return to the MOU, just on a compressed timetable

But the message from both Washington and diplomats in the region has been that Trump isn't interested in returning to the MOU…

— Gregg Carlstrom (@glcarlstrom) September 25, 2026

Pezeshkian further said it was up to the United States to choose when the war would end. "It's America that must choose whether it wants to end this or not," Pezeshkian said in response to a question by Fox's Bret Baier.

Tehran has meanwhile said it is ready to escalate, and even spread the war beyond the Persian Gulf region, into the Indian Ocean for example (where the UK-US have the Diego Garcia base).

Further UNGA Highlights

Recap of some of the highlights from the UN this week, via Middle East Eye:

• The US-Israeli war on Iran and the Israel-Palestine conflict continued to occupy prime positions on the fourth day of the UN General Assembly. Somali President Mohamed Hassan Sheikh Mohamud said his country was "suffering" as a result of the US-Israeli war, which has driven up the price of energy and food. Meanwhile, European Union Council president said the EU supports efforts to “find a solution to the conflict". He added that "freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz must be preserved without conditions and without hindrance".

• Crown Prince of Kuwait Sabah Al Khaled condemned the "illegal Iranian aggression" in his address to the UN Security Council on Thursday. Kuwait was one of the Gulf states hardest hit by Iran in retaliation for the US-Israeli war on the Islamic Republic. Kuwait is home to tens of thousands of US troops and military bases. US facilities in Kuwait were attacked along with civilian sites like Kuwait airport and energy infrastructure.

• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave a pugnacious speech at the United Nations General Assembly, attacking everyone from New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the leaders of Western Europe, as he tried to counter Israel’s growing international isolation. 

• Meanwhile, hundreds of protesters took up positions around the UN headquarters before Netanyahu's arrival and continued protesting while he spoke inside. Support for Palestinian statehood and disappointment over the ongoing attacks on Gaza were repeatedly brought up during the event.

• Vice President of Yemen Abdullah Abdulkader al-Alimi-Bawzer condemned the Houthis in his address to the UN General Assembly and tried to rally the global community to help fight the group. He said the government of Yemen had supported a peace initiative backed by the governments of Saudi Arabia and Oman, while the Houthis rejected it and "instead escalated their actions in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb to serve an Iranian agenda".

Overnight Developments Recap

via Newsquawk

• Iran Foreign Minister Araghchi said Iran presented a proposal to US through mediators this week to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restart negotiations towards a final deal, while it called for US to meet certain conditions within 7 days, according to CNN.
• Iranian President Pezeshkian said in Fox News interview that Iran does not want a nuclear bomb. They reached an agreement with the US President that was signed, and are still ready to move forward based on the same principles, adds it wasn't Iran that closed the Strait of Hormuz and it was open. They didn't seek war and that it was imposed on them, while they don't seek war but will defend themselves. They didn't start the war but will respond decisively.
• Iranian President Pezeshkian said Iran is ready for an agreement with the US and makes demands only within the framework of international law and could give up highly enriched uranium if it reaches an agreement with the US, according to TASS.
• Iran's President Pezeshkian said Tehran wants to revive its ceasefire memorandum of understanding with the US before the November midterm elections, saying Iran does not want talks delayed until after the vote. said:. Iran is open to inspections of its nuclear facilities and denies that Tehran is seeking to assassinate President Trump or his family.
• Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi said the Strait of Hormuz can reopen if certain conditions are met by the US and that it would be better to implement before the Midterms, according to a Sky reporter.
• IRGC spokesperson warned in the event of another attack, Iran's method of defence will change including geography of the confrontation, the type of equipment and weapons used, and targets in defensive operations in line with new conditions.
• Iranian Brigadier General Sheikh said "we seek to expand our capabilities and reconsider our tactics and technologies", via Al Mayadeen.
• Sources say a return to the June 18 memorandum of understanding between Iran and the US is no longer sought by either side, with both seeking amendments to some clauses, further complicating negotiations, Al-Akhbar reported.
• Pakistan's Defence Minister said intensive efforts are underway to establish a mechanism for ending the conflict as quickly as possible and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, according to Tasnim.

* * *

The mass conservative boycott against woke companies and far-left content has been wildly successful.  While the political left has repeatedly attempted such boycotts and "cancellations" over the years, not one has ever been as effective as the "Chud" revolution against woke media.  

It took a few years (along with a slowdown in outside funding from ESG programs and venture capital), but some of the biggest corporations in the world have been forced to acknowledge that ideological content just isn't working.  The much vaunted "modern audience" that progressive stalwarts bragged about failed to materialize.  It was always a myth.  It never existed. 

These businesses killed their own bottom line and alienated long-time customers in the name of a bizarre cult religion representing a small portion of the global population.  And even more embarrassing for companies like Bungie, those weirdos don't spend much money on video games anyway. 

The Bungie game studio achieved widespread acclaim with early installments of the Halo series, a direct competitor to Call Of Duty.  But, around 2014-2016, something changed.  The company started listening to the Twitter mob (a leftist echo chamber) and began hiring clucking broods of woke developers. 

Bungie integrated LGBT, DEI and feminist propaganda into their games.  Their senior narrative designer publicly defended the notorious Sweet Baby Inc., a woke consultation group known for "terrorizing" gaming companies into injecting woke content into their products.  Though, there is no direct evidence that Sweet Baby Inc. ever consulted for Bungie. 

To summarize the attitude of these people: They insist that they be able to "see themselves" in every media product, to the detriment of everyone else.  

 

The homosexual fantasies and trans delusions of developers were forced into character stories and designs.  The women got uglier and more masculine.  The men were more feminine and fruity.  Characters that were never gay were retconned and turned gay.  The minority pie chart was on full display and white straight men were quickly phased out. 

Bungie's Destiny 2 ultimately collapsed and Marathon was a disaster for the studio leading to mass player walkouts.  Sony took a $765M impairment on Bungie in FY2025, tied to Destiny 2’s slide and Marathon’s launch quarter (That is the company admitting the portfolio is worth a lot less than they paid).   

Finally, this week, the truth came out - Bungie is facing disaster, so much so that they posted a video "apologizing" to their gamer customers. 

However, veiled in a flurry of corporate-speak is a refusal to admit what the real problem is; the real reason why they failed.  At no point does Bungie admit that their company was destroyed by woke ideology.  At no point do they admit "Get Woke, Go Broke" was right all along. 

Instead, they pretend to offer an olive branch while barrelling ahead with games like Marathon that are already catastrophic failures.  Games that no one wants to play and will never want to play.  They say they want to listen to their customers, but not really.  Their customers are telling them to cleanse the company of wokeness, but they won't even acknowledge that wokeness is the original source of the problem. 

We have seen this time and time again with desperate media companies seeking a reprieve from the boycotts; they beg the audience to come back, they might even fire a bunch of their activist employees, but they never admit that progressive cultism poisoned their relationship with their customers.  

Until these companies are willing to do this, there is really no reason to give them another chance.  Until they face the truth and renounce the woke cult, it is perhaps better if they are allowed to die so they can be replaced by someone better.   

Authored by Alex Kimani via OilPrice.com,

Nearly a decade ago, the Canadian Oil Patch recorded a major asset sale and consolidation wave as oil majors exited the oil sands in favor of higher margins in U.S. shale oil as well as environmental concerns amid the ESG investing craze.

To wit, Shell Plc (NYSE:SHEL) sold the majority of its oil sands interests to Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (NYSE:CNQ) in 2017 a transaction valued at roughly $11.1 billion CAD ($8.5 billion USD), while Cenovus Energy (NYSE:CVE) acquired most of ConocoPhillips' (NYSE:COP) Canadian assets for C$17.7 billion (approximately US$13.2 billion). And now a similar dynamic is unfolding across Canada's energy sector: Canada's oil patch has recorded over $30 billion in mergers and acquisitions so far in the current year, with Wall Street projecting that this year's final tally will surpass the $53 billion recorded in 2017. However, this year's M&A wave is fundamentally different from its 2017 peer since it's mainly being driven by high oil and asset prices amid the Middle East conflict rather than a desperate attempt to dispose off distressed assets, "Whereas recently, we've seen a lot of clients merging from positions of strength, because it's the best outcome for shareholders at the time," Raj Singh, CEO at Calgary-based Fuelled Inc., told the Financial Post. "That's a healthier dynamic, and it tends to produce more durable combinations."

So far, this year's key highlight has been Shell's takeover of Arc Resources for $16.4 billion as the Dutch major looks to boost its depleted energy reserves, secure low-cost production and insulate its global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply chain from the Middle Eastern fallout. Prior to the acquisition, Shell faced an existential threat, with an estimated reserve life of just 5.3 years - well below the 10-year industry benchmark for European supermajors. ARC Resources immediately adds 370,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) to Shell's output, improving its projected annual production growth rate from 1% to roughly 4% through 2030.

To sweeten the deal further, ARC Resources is a premier, pure-play producer in Western Canada's natural-gas-heavy Montney Basin, while Shell owns a 40% operating stake in the massive LNG Canada export facility in British Columbia. By absorbing ARC, Shell effectively integrates its supply chain, securing the upstream gas needed to feed LNG Canada and paving the way to greenlight a Phase 2 expansion that could double the facility's size. Finally, whereas ARC is heavily focused on natural gas, roughly 40% of its output (and 70% of its underlying economic value) comes from high-margin oil and condensate liquids, with the asset mix increasing Shell's exposure to low-cost, long-duration liquids.

In yet another high-dollar deal, Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. (OTCPK:TNEYF) and Headwater Exploration Inc. (OTCPK:CDDRF) recently announced a definitive agreement to merge in an all-stock transaction valued at C$10 billion ($7.25 billion). The combined company expects production exceeding 80,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), making it the largest publicly traded pure-play Clearwater oil producer. Tamarack has already secured 25,000 barrels per day of Trans Mountain pipeline capacity starting in Q1 2027 that will allow the company to access West Coast markets, alongside long-term access to Cushing, Oklahoma, via the proposed South Bow Prairie Connector.

And just last week, American institutional private equity firm Carlyle expanded its Canadian energy footprint by forming a new entity, Avenrock Energy, to acquire Calgary-based private operator Parallax Energy Operating Inc. from Carnelian Energy Capital. Although details of the deal were not divulged, analysts believe the transaction cost hovers around $1 billion. That marked the private equity giant's second multi-billion-dollar scale push into Alberta's energy sector within a 12-month window after it acquired Kiwetinohk Energy Corp. in October for approximately $1.4 billion.

Parallax holds a 75% working interest across roughly 300,000 gross acres situated in Alberta's highly coveted East Shale Duvernay formation and gross production of 20,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), weighted heavily toward high-value light oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs). Carlyle aims to leverage the Parallax infrastructure as a launchpad to scale an expansive Western Canadian light oil platform.

And, the energy experts are saying we are likely to see more deals like these before the year closes, "Inflation and commodity pricing have simply made producing assets very attractive right now," Singh told the Financial Post. "When corporate development teams run the numbers today, acquisitions look appealing and can pull forward returns for shareholders."

Nike shares fell 2% in New York premarket trading after BofA retail analyst Lorraine Hutchinson downgraded the world's largest athletic footwear and apparel company, warning that its "turnaround is taking longer" than expected. With shares trading at 2014 levels, the downgrade adds new woes to a recovery story that might not materialize until 2028.

In the report published earlier today, titled "Moving the goalposts," Hutchinson downgraded Nike to "Underperform" from "Neutral" and cut her price target to $30 from $47, implying 17% downside from Thursday's close of $35.99.

Hutchinson now expects a sales decline through 2027, abandoning her earlier call for a 1H27 recovery and pushing the turnaround into 2028. She cut fiscal 2027 and 2028 earnings estimates by 11% and 12%, respectively. Her 2027 forecast of $1.43 a share sits roughly 14% below Visible Alpha consensus.

She added color:

Risks are rising, downgrading to Underperform

We see downside risk to EPS estimates and valuation as Nike's innovation continues to be overshadowed by a pressured classics business, while category and macro pressures build. We are cutting F27E/F28E EPS by 11%/12%; we now expect negative sales growth through F27E versus our prior view of a Spring inflection. Our F27E EPS is 14% below VA consensus. The dividend payout ratio is over 100% and, as a result, we are reducing our income rating to 8 (same/lower) from 7 (same/higher). Our $30 PO (was $47) is based on a 16x P/E (was 22x), now aligned with the peer average.

Wholesale momentum should slow as sell-through lags

NA wholesale has been an area of strength, growing 14% in F26 vs. flat total sales growth. In some instances, sell-through is lagging sell-in due to declines in classic styles and new launches that are missing expectations. This puts forward order books at risk as retailers become less willing to make a bet on newness until success is proven. We see progress slowing in 2Q as the business laps 24% growth, and remaining challenged in 2H as the current issues pressure Spring orders. We model NA wholesale sales declines beginning in 2Q through the rest of F27.

China reset faces a tougher demand backdrop

China is in flux, and Nike's reduction in partner online sales will likely cause promotional pressure through 2Q. After that, Nike is expected to present the brand more cohesively online. Competition is intense; the quest for newness is higher than ever, and we see risk that sales decline at least through F27. BofA's Luxury Goods team's China fieldtrip takeaways included weak sports demand, with product newness not resonating, moderation of running outperformance, and excess inventory driven by low demand. 

Despite Nike's 44% year-to-date bear market, Hutchinson said it's "unlikely that the stock will hold a premium multiple in the face of further EPS cuts. We see some green shoots on product innovation, but those have been dwarfed by weaker larger casual categories."

She added, "We think the multiple could compress as the turn is pushed to F28."

According to Bloomberg data, there are 15 "Buy" ratings, 25 "Neutral" ratings and 7 "Sell" ratings on the stock, with a 12-month price target of $46.10.

The stock is already down 80% from its 2021 high of $177. Where stabilization occurs and halts the vicious bear market remains to be seen, but it could materialize next year as Wall Street analysts see a turnaround ahead. Yet BofA analysts have pushed that expectation back to 2028. 

Back in July President Trump strongly signaled that he was greenlighting the ability of Ukraine to produce its own patriot anti-air defense missiles. Trump declared in the context of a Turkey-hosted NATO summit that Washington would give Ukraine "the right to make Patriots" - after Zelensky had been relentless in his requests, framing it as urgent and for the protection of cities and civilians.

But since then there's been denials and ambiguity surrounding the pledge. President Trump had at the time of the summer NATO summit admitted the risks involved, also while trying to press ahead to get the warring sides to the peace table, conceding, "It's an escalation but it’s also an escalation that can help lead to an end [of the war]."

On Friday while attending the UN General Assembly meeting in New York, Zelensky told journalists that the White House has made its 'final decision' to okay the Patriot production scheme.

The Ukrainian leader claimed: "At our last meeting, President Trump emphasized to me that yes, I have made a final decision. Ukraine will receive licenses for the production of Patriot missiles."

However, the White House has yet to affirm this, and hasn't issued comment on Zelensky's latest assertions. It seems premature, and a ploy to pressure Trump into agreeing.

The Guardian reviews that Trump had publicly backed down from the Patriot plan by mid-summer:

Donald Trump has backed off a promise to let Ukraine manufacture its own Patriot air defense interceptors, telling reporters that handing over the underlying technology was “a hard thing to give away” during a cabinet meeting at Camp David.

The retreat, billed by the White House as “something different” for the cabinet to experience together, was the first such meeting at the presidential compound of Trump’s second term.

It also became the venue for the US president to unpick, in real time, a commitment he made to Volodymyr Zelenskyy just a few days earlier.

Asked whether he was ready to grant Kyiv a license to build Patriots domestically – something he had suggested at a Nato summit in Turkey just this month, and which the Ukrainian president described as a productive topic in their White House meeting on Tuesday – Trump was noncommittal.

"We have not agreed to that," Trump had said at the Camp David meeting, reversing course. "We’re talking about it, but it’s a hard thing to give away that kind of technology."

Trump had said that an interceptor can go "8,600 miles an hour" - and that "Nobody else has that capacity" - strongly suggesting that he's averse to giving away such technology to a foreign ally.

Zelensky reveals the number of Patriot missiles fired during Iran War:

Just between us, PAC-3 missiles in the Middle East — the countries there have used about 800 or more missiles during these attacks.

Ukraine has never had that many missiles during all this time to repel… pic.twitter.com/WUz9E4hait

— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 5, 2026

But now Zelensky is claiming that Trump has reversed once again on the issue. Again, there's nothing at all indicating that this is what has come from the White House, in any official capacity.