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President Trump has repeatedly said that China's President Xi Jinping has directly assured him that Beijing will not supply Iran with weaponry or military support.

But this week these 'assurances' have been called into question by an Reuters investigation. "Iran is expected to receive within weeks a first shipment out of up to 400 Chinese-made shoulder-fired air-defense missile launchers, three sources familiar with the deal told ?Reuters, as it rebuilds its defenses amid war with the United States," the fresh report says.

"The purchase, valued at $60-70 million, is one of Tehran's largest-known efforts to strengthen its short-range air ?defences since the outbreak of its war with the U.S. and Israel, which exposed gaps in Iran's ability to protect military sites and strategic infrastructure," it adds.

The fresh report cites three anonymous sources and did not receive comment from the Iranian side. Some of the assertions of the Reuters report are surprisingly specific, such as in the following:

The contract covers the purchase of between 300 and 400 man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS), including Chinese-made QW-12 and FN-16 missiles, the sources said.

The deal was signed with Zhongqing Baoshang International Investment, a Hong Kong-based company that the sources said was acting as an intermediary between the Iranian ?side and the Chinese supplier.

The reporting even explores options being considered for delivery of the weapons, at a moment Iran is urgently seeking to replenish its air defense supplies after months of grinding tit-for-tat conflict with the US military.

"Two Western intelligence sources and an Iranian official said Tehran had also explored the use of overland routes to move Chinese military supplies and dual-use components ?more discreetly and ?reduce the risk of disruption," Reuters continues.

MANPADS could prove especially dangerous for US helicopters and other low flying aircraft, and for Iran can serve as layer of short-range protection.

The opening days of Operation Epic Fury saw much of Iran's anti-air units get taken out, especially across the Western part of the country, giving US-Israeli jets air superiority. However, at times the Iranians have claimed to shoot down some aircraft, and since then the US has seemed to operate from further afar.

Trump wrote on Truth Social just last week that "President Xi, at our recent meeting in Beijing, China, told me that he would not, under any circumstances, give or sell Weapons to the Islamic Republic of Iran — And that statement included Chinese Companies."

"Considering our relationship, I take him at his word and, besides, l am doing him very big favors, also. Likewise, President Putin … told me that he would not sell Weapons to Iran," he stated. Trump continued, "Therefore, two major Countries that people speak of often in terms of Iran are, in my opinion, not participating. If they did, it would be very bad for them — Certainly not in their best interests."

As for Reuters' findings, Beijing as expected has blasted them as lies. China's Foreign Ministry said in response: "The relevant reports are completely groundless. China has consistently played a role ?in promoting peace and ending the conflict."

Microsoft walked into tonight's fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report carrying the most bearish positioning it has seen in more than a decade, and it does so on an afternoon when the Fed - now run by a chairman who has made a point of telling markets nothing - triggered significant volatility in stocks and bonds.

The positioning data tells the story first. According to S3 Partners data reported by CNBC, roughly 92 million Microsoft shares are now sold short, or 1.27% of the public float - the highest short interest as a percentage of float since May 2015, and the largest short-interest build anywhere in the Magnificent Seven. More telling than the level is the behavior: S3 says there has been virtually no short covering into the print, which means the bears are not taking profits on a stock that is already down more than 18% year-to-date and, as GeekWire notes, sitting near a one-year low despite consistently beating estimates. They are holding, and they are holding into the report.

The reason is not mysterious to anyone who watched last week.

Alphabet delivered what would once have been a triumphant quarter - revenue up 24%, cloud up 82% - then raised its 2026 capex forecast by roughly $15 billion to as much as $205 billion, and for its trouble watched the stock fall 7% the next day and slip below its prior $4 trillion valuation.

Crucially, the lesson from GOOGL is that the market has stopped rewarding hyperscalers for spending money, which is inconvenient for companies whose entire strategic posture is spending money.

"Alphabet's capex boost increases the odds of similar behavior" from Microsoft and Amazon, Evercore ISI's Mark Mahaney wrote in a client note last week, which is precisely what the shorts are betting on.

And so, with all that in mind, what did MSFT report?

The headline is a strong top-line beat out of the gate:

• Microsoft Q4 Revenue was $90.01 billion, up 18%, and better than the consensus $87.7 billion.

• Q4 diluted earnings per share jumped 23% (on a non-GAAP basis) to $4.74 (but this is not entirely comparable to the $4.25 consensus thanks to $3.2billion gain from their investment in Anthropic and 7c/share loss from OpenAI's investment)

Under the hood, MSFT's cloud unit posted a larger-than-expected increase in sales, suggesting that the company’s computing infrastructure and artificial intelligence services continue to make inroads with businesses.

Azure cloud-computing revenue increased 43% during the fiscal fourth quarter, the company said Wednesday in a statement. That exceeded analysts’ average growth estimate of about 40%. 

Nadella highlighted progress on the “cost-to-outcome curve” and noted two major milestones

“We are advancing the frontier on the cost-to-outcome curve, ensuring every customer can turn tokens into business results," said Satya Nadella, chairman and chief executive officer of Microsoft.

“This year, Azure revenue surpassed $100 billion for the first time, and Microsoft 365 Copilot reached over 30 million paid seats, reflecting the confidence customers are placing in us to power their AI transformation.”

All units beat on revenues:

• Microsoft Cloud Q4 revenue $59.3 billion, estimate $58.71 billion, up 27% YoY

• Intelligent Cloud revenue $39.31 billion, estimate $38.17 billion

• Productivity and Business Processes revenue $37.85 billion, estimate $37.27 billion

• More Personal Computing revenue $12.85 billion, estimate $12.17 billion

Net income was $35.8 billion and increased 31% on a GAAP basis, and was $35.3 billion and increased 22% on a non-GAAP basis

Finally, and perhaps most crucially, Capital expenditures (including assets acquired under finance leases) increased 70% to $41 billion in the quarter, which is notably less than the $42.5 billion expected, on track to meet their roughly $190 billion annual guidance, but Capital-spending details on the conference call are more important, given the metric exceeds 50% of calendar 2026 sales.

Following an afternoon of pain (thanks to Warsh), MSFT shares are bouncing modestly after hours - up around 3%...

Tonight closes the books on a fiscal year in which Microsoft guided capital expenditures and finance leases to roughly $190 billion - up 61% from the prior year - including, per CFO Amy Hood's April guidance, a $25 billion hit from higher component prices as the global memory crunch feeds straight into the cost of building AI infrastructure.

The forward-looking problem is worse: BNP Paribas analysts are already penciling in $262 billion of capex for fiscal 2027. Cloud gross margin, guided to roughly 64% for the quarter, has been grinding lower as data-center depreciation piles up, meaning the spending is now visibly eating into the earnings it was supposed to eventually justify.

Along those lines, Bloomberg's Brody Ford reports that Microsoft added more than $130 billion in new data center leases in the past quarter, signaling an accelerating pace of spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure.

The company’s total commitments for leases that have not yet commenced were $329.1 billion as of the quarter ended June 30, Microsoft said Wednesday in a regulatory filing. That’s up from $196.6 billion in the prior period.

“That’s really a signal of the continued demand strength that we see,” Jonathan Neilson, Microsoft investor relations chief, said in an interview.

“These leases are going to be there to serve demand for many many years.”

The future costs, which come on top of active leases, won’t appear on Microsoft’s balance sheet until it begins making payments on them. The company said they are “primarily” for data centers and some are “subject to certain contractual conditions being met.”

This represents Microsoft’s largest quarterly jump in data center leasing by far.

The software giant continues to be held back by a lack of data center capacity after taking a pause on its leasing activity through much of 2025.

However, as we detailed earlier, simply put, until MSFT demonstrates some more tangible progress in AI (Copilot progress, proprietary LLM, proprietary chip, etc. as OpenAI potentially steals institutional share), it will likely remain on the battleground.

Microsoft will give its sales outlook for the current quarter, its fiscal Q1, as well as details on actual FY2026 CapEx on the conference call with analysts tonight.

Lemonade shares crashed early in the US cash session after the technology-focused insurer reported fewer second-quarter customers than Wall Street expected and announced a transition of its chief financial officer.

The company, which provides renters, homeowners, auto, pet and life insurance in the US and parts of Europe, plunged 18%, marking its steepest intraday decline since July 31, 2024.

The shares are down 30% this year, rapidly reversing a rally that catapulted the stock from about $20 in late 2024 to nearly triple digits. Lemonade peaked at around $96 earlier this year.

What traders focused on was that customers in the second quarter increased 23% to 3.31 million, short of the Bloomberg Consensus estimate of 3.33 million. Revenues in the quarter surged 79% to $294.4 million, beating expectations, while the adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to $18.7 million from $40.9 million a year earlier. The gross loss ratio improved to 60%, better than the 64.8% estimate.

2Q Earnings Snapshot (courtesy of Bloomberg):

• Loss per share 56c vs. loss/shr 60c y/y, estimate loss/shr 56c
• Revenue $294.4 million, +79% y/y, estimate $290.9 million
• In force premium $1.43 billion, +32% y/y, estimate $1.43 billion
• Gross earned premium $332.4 million, +32% y/y, estimate $329.6 million
• Adjusted Ebitda loss $18.7 million vs. loss $40.9 million y/y, estimate loss $20.4 million
• Customers 3.31 million, +23% y/y, estimate 3.33 million
• Premium per customer $433, +7.7% y/y, estimate $428.39
• Gross Loss Ratio 60% vs. 67% y/y, estimate 64.8%

Lemonade raised its full-year revenue forecast to $1.21 billion to $1.22 billion but maintained an adjusted EBITDA loss outlook wider than consensus.

Nick Stead, currently senior vice president of finance, will succeed Tim Bixby as CFO on Jan. 1, with Bixby transitioning to the board. The company provided no color on the rationale behind the leadership change.

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

The State Department updated its travel advisory for the Bahamas, highlighting the risk of crime, including sexual assaults, in the Caribbean nation.

Violent crimes, such as sexual assaults, armed robberies, and burglaries, can occur anywhere in the country, the department said in a July 28 update.

“Most crime occurs in Nassau and Freeport on New Providence and Grand Bahama islands. Stay alert in the ‘Over the Hill’ area in Nassau, south of Shirley Street, where gangs have killed residents. Stay alert in vacation rental properties, especially where private security is not present,” the department said.

Located on New Providence Island, Nassau is the capital of the Bahamas.

The Bahamas has been designated as a “Level 2: Exercise Increased Caution” classification.

The advisory specifically warned about jet skiing and boating activities in the Bahamas, highlighting that these are not well regulated in the country. Deaths and injuries involving such activities have been reported. In some instances, jet ski operators have allegedly committed sexual assaults.

The U.S. government has banned its employees from using or renting jet skis and personal watercraft from independent operators on Paradise Islands and New Providence due to safety risks. Some watercraft operators may not be licensed or insured, and may ignore weather forecasts, according to the advisory.

In a June 15 alert, the U.S. Embassy in Nassau had warned Americans about jet ski risks in the Bahamas.

According to the embassy, at least two Americans have reported being sexually assaulted in the Bahamas this year by jet ski operators. Two such reports were registered in 2025, while three were reported in 2024.

Some of the victims alleged that operators had solicited them for rides from the small islands east of Paradise Island, downtown Nassau, and Paradise Island beaches, including areas stretching from Junkanoo Beach to Saunders Beach and Cabbage Beach.

The victims said they were assaulted on isolated islands near Nassau, according to the embassy.

In its latest advisory, the State Department warned travelers to the Bahamas to be aware of their surroundings and stay alert in public restrooms. Sexual assaults have occurred on or near beaches in downtown Nassau.

The department advised people never to swim alone and to be aware of watercraft or jet skis operating close to the shore.

In 2024, roughly 85 percent of the around 11.2 million visitors to the Bahamas were from the United States, according to data from the International Trade Administration.

In addition to the Bahamas, the State Department has issued travel advisories for other nations in the Caribbean.

A July 10 travel advisory updated the alert level for Saint Lucia to Level 2, warning about the risk of crime in the country.

American citizens and other foreigners in Saint Lucia have reported being victims of assault, armed robbery, rape, and burglary. In some instances, U.S. citizens have been killed, the advisory said.

Tourist resorts have been targets of violent crimes. Moreover, response times of local police are not as fast as in the United States.

In April, a State Department advisory warned of crime and terrorism risks in Trinidad and Tobago, designating the country with a “Level 3: Reconsider Travel” classification, the second-most severe travel advisory.

The department advised avoiding beaches, downtown Port of Spain, Fort George, and Queen’s Park Savannah after dark, warning that tourists are vulnerable to armed assault at these sites.

Meanwhile, a “Worldwide Caution” security alert was issued on July 22 by the State Department for Americans due to the heightened tensions in the Middle East.

U.S. diplomatic facilities, within and outside of the Middle East, have been targeted by rivals, with the Iranian regime and its supporting groups likely to target other American interests overseas. Targets may include locations linked to the United States and U.S. citizens anywhere in the world, such as businesses and institutions, according to the department.

“Americans currently in the Middle East should exercise caution and heightened vigilance and should be prepared for flight cancellations, periodic airspace closures, and potential travel disruptions,” the alert said.

Houthis have entered the chat...

Already multiple Saudi vessels have been targeted in the Red Sea region, forcing a number of tankers to U-turn, and now Yemen's Houthis are seeking to introduce their own 'toll system' for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

"Yemen's information minister said intelligence confirmed IRGC advisers were directly involved in designing a Houthi-enforced toll system for the Bab el-Mandeb, mirroring Iran's contested claim to charge fees in the Strait of Hormuz," European media reports Wednesday.

"The Houthi armed group is working with Iran to charge ships to transit the Bab el-Mandeb in the Red Sea, threatening another waterway after Tehran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a minister in Yemen's internationally recognised government said on Wednesday." 

The scheme is to be a mirror image of that Tehran is seeking to enforce in the Strait of Hormuz, where it continues to insist that it will settle for nothing less than its own vision of management, including fee collection for "navigation" "environmental" and safety assurance. According to more via Reuters:

Yemen's Houthi group is considering imposing fees on commercial ships sailing through the southern Red Sea, a week after declaring a naval blockade ?on Saudi Arabia, regional sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters.

The Iran-aligned Houthis on July 20 declared a maritime embargo against Saudi ?Arabia, opening a new front against the U.S. and its allies in the Iran war and expanding attacks on tankers carrying global energy and other supplies to waters beyond the Gulf.

The US and Saudi backed government in Yemen, which has for over a decade been at civil war with the Houthi rebels, has described the move as "a dangerous escalation aimed at transforming one of the world's most strategic maritime corridors into a permanent source of funding for the militia's military and terrorist activities," according to Yemen's Information Minister Moammar al-Eryani.

The pro-Saudi axis has said it recently obtained "confirmed intelligence" indicating that Iran's IRGC were helping to manage the toll initiative.

"The intelligence indicates that IRGC experts and advisers are directly involved in designing the technical and administrative framework of the project," Eryani added.

Eryani stated this would include "the establishment of a dedicated entity responsible for collecting payments from shipping companies and commercial vessels".

Iran has been pledging to support its ground proxies in Iraq and Yemen, as both since last weekend appeared to begin launching attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities.

Overnight saw a rare joint US-Saudi response with attacks on Iraqi militias. In the case of Yemen, there's not much the coalition can do given the Houthis have remained entrenched even after years of massive bombing campaigns, including strikes conducted solely by the Israeli Air Force at times.

China is said to be in direct talks with the Houthis to allow for passage of Chinese vessels, also based on prior precedent wherein the Houthis allowed Russian and Chinese ships to pass without incident, connected to the prior Gaza war.

Garmin shares jumped as much as 9.6% in premarket trading after the GPS-device maker delivered a broad beat on second-quarter earnings and raised its full-year outlook.

Garmin produces GPS-enabled electronics and wearable technology across five main markets:

• Fitness: smartwatches, running watches, cycling computers and activity trackers
• Outdoor: hiking watches, handheld GPS devices, satellite communicators and dog-tracking systems
• Aviation: cockpit displays, navigation systems, avionics and flight instruments
• Marine: chartplotters, sonar, radar, autopilots and fish finders
• Automotive: vehicle navigation systems, cameras and technology supplied to automakers

The company attributed the outperformance to "strong demand for advanced wearables," particularly within its fitness segment:

Revenue from the fitness segment increased 25% in the second quarter with growth across all product categories, led by strong demand for advanced wearables. Gross and operating margins were 64% and 37%, respectively, resulting in $277 million of operating income.

During the quarter, we launched the Forerunner 70 and Forerunner 170, easy-to-use GPS running smartwatches designed to help runners of all levels reach their goals. In addition, we celebrated Global Running Day and Global Cycling Day with the release of our running and cycling data reports, highlighting how athletes around the world are recording runs and rides. More recently, we announced the CIRQA Smart Band, a screenless wearable that offers rich wellness and fitness insights without requiring a subscription and further expands our addressable market for wellness devices.

Hottest watch on the golf course is the Garmin Approach S70 Golf GPS Watch: 

Here's a snapshot of second quarter results:

Pro forma EPS $2.81 vs. $2.17 y/y, estimate $2.28

Revenue $2.02 billion, +11% y/y, estimate $1.92 billion

• Aviation net sales $268.7 million, +7.8% y/y, estimate $265.4 million
• Fitness net sales $756.8 million, +25% y/y, estimate $670.5 million
• Outdoor net sales $482.7 million, -1.6% y/y, estimate $477.6 million
• Marine net sales $341.4 million, +14% y/y, estimate $322.4 million

Operating income $615.5 million, +30% y/y, estimate $486 million

• Fitness operating income $277 million, +40% y/y, estimate $196.8 million
• Outdoor operating income $163.6 million, +3.5% y/y, estimate $142.3 million
• Aviation operating profit $72 million, +14% y/y, estimate $66.7 million
• Marine operating income $100 million, +59% y/y, estimate $66.6 million

Gross margin 62.4% vs. 58.8% y/y, estimate 58.8%

Here's a snapshot of the full-year forecast:

Sees pro forma EPS $10.00, saw $9.35, estimate $9.62 (Bloomberg Consensus)

Sees revenue about $8.05 billion, saw about $7.9 billion, estimate $7.99 billion 

Sees gross margin 59.7%, saw 58.5%, estimate 58.8%

The report offers a positive outlook on consumer hardware demand, with folks increasingly gravitating toward wearables. It also highlights a growing divergence within the technology sector: while the AI selloff pressures memory-chip producers and hyperscalers, consumer-device companies with strong demand and earnings momentum continue to outperform.

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Last week, Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s short stint as a faux president ended with an embarrassing acknowledgment that he could not, as promised during his campaign, arrest Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

So, this week, Mamdani the Grocer made a reappearance, with details on the five city-run grocery stores that he will open.

But rather than deliver discount groceries, Mamdani is selling New Yorkers a bill of goods that will cost them millions.

What Mamdani described was a discount food bank dressed up as a grocery. Standing in front of blackboards saying “REDUCED 30%,” Mamdani sounded like a bodega hawker: “Once a month, our five city-run grocery stores will set prices for this core set of goods at 30% below typical retail prices. No exceptions, no gimmicks”

Here’s the most delicious part: the presser was a gimmick from beginning to end.

The mayor promised that “The savings will last for the entire month. That means no weekly fluctuations or sticker shock at the checkout line — not for our seniors living on fixed incomes, nor for the parents who rely on a regular supply of apple slices to keep toddler tantrums at bay.”

The Mamdani markets are new variations of an old New York grift: selling gold watches for $5.

The dupes want to believe that somehow this street vendor, surreptitiously displaying watches inside his overcoat, actually found a way to sell “solid gold watches” for just a few bucks.

The math simply does not add up for Mamdani.

Most groceries have an average profit margin between 1% and 3%, one of the smallest margins of any industry.

To promise a 30% discount below market rate that cannot be adjusted due to monthly market fluctuations is economically absurd.

It is not a description of a competitive grocery but a public charity. It is a quasi-food bank where taxpayers subsidize the cost.

As usual, Mamdani turns this into a class war, demonizing business owners. He suggests that real grocery stores are simply price gougers hoarding windfall profits from consumers. He ignores that they must pay rent, upkeep and fees — all things the city-run stores may simply write off.

He proclaimed, “May the most affordable grocery store win.”

Of course, the test is not which grocery is the most affordable, but which is the most sustainable. If you are willing to take a bath on sales, you can always offer the most affordable prices for as long as your excess cash holds out.

In Mamdani’s case, he has the credit of New York City to draw on to compete against Mom-and-Pop bodegas.

The subsidy, however, is only part of the costs. The average bodega owner must cover the fixed costs of renting a space, building the store, and complying with inspectors. Those are the fixed costs that must be internalized into the cost of produce to break even.

Real stores are competing in one of the tightest markets in the world and are grappling with a 33% nationwide increase in costs since 2019. Mamdani wants to use the stores to prove that socialism works as part of his effort to introduce New York to the “warmth of socialism.” We may never know the real costs of the Mamdani markets.

According to the New York Post, the city plans to open an East Harlem location as its first store, at a reported cost of $30 million.

However, that is not the full cost.  The Post also reported that the city had already appropriated $25 million to improve the first site. The city will lose millions that could have been acquired through a sale of the land or through rents to private companies. Those costs are left on other ledgers and not likely counted in the true costs of the Mamdani markets.

The first store will not even open until 2027 despite the props behind Mamdani. The second Manhattan store will not open until 2029.  That is three years and tens of millions of dollars for just the first two stores.

That is how Mamdani is promising New Yorkers savings of  “$90 a month, or roughly $1,000 a year.” He is using the city to subsidize food under the guise of selling at low, but still profitable prices. Ironically, those who can take advantage of the subsidy at the first two stores in Manhattan will be anyone, including the privileged, wealthy New Yorkers whom Mamdani denounces for not paying their fair share. After all, everyone wants below-market-priced slices in the Big Apple.

The first city-run grocery, in East Harlem, will cost $30 million to build — and perhaps more. It will never need to pay this money back nor factor it into its prices. The “warmth of socialism” will cover it; that is, you.

In reality, Mamdani will be selling apples at a far greater cost than any competitor, but those true costs will be buried in the city budget and paid for by the taxpayers.

Indeed, the Mamdani markets are likely to prove the most expensive groceries in the city.

Mamdani, however, has never sweated the math or the means. He knows that the focus will be on the cash register price and not the true cost.

Of course, there is a big difference between the gold watch grift and the Mamdani grift: buying a knockoff watch only costs chumps a few bucks. The Mamdani con will cost New Yorkers millions, and most will thank him for it.

Jonathan Turley is a law professor and the New York Times best-selling author of “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution.”