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Update (1540ET):

Ford shares fell slightly in late trading after Reuters reported that Ford Motor will pause production next week at its Dearborn, Michigan, auto plant, which builds the F-150 Lightning electric pickup. The shutdown is linked to a September 16 fire at Novelis's aluminum plant in Oswego, New York, a major supplier of sheet aluminum used to make the truck's body.

As detailed in our previous report below, the blaze severely damaged Novelis's hot mill, disrupting sheet aluminum production that won't come back online until early 2026. 

Reuters said details about Ford's planned shutdown of the EV truck plant came from union official Nick Kottalis, who heads the Dearborn Truck and REVC operations. He confirmed the stoppage planned for next week. 

Earlier, Evercore ISI analyst Chris McNally wrote in a note to clients, "We believe this is largely a Ford issue, at this time being, although we are continuing to check knock-on effects for [Stellantis] and Toyota as well," adding, the disruption at the Dearborn plant will generate a $500 million to $1 billion hit to Frod's EBIT. 

Shares of Ford have slumped more than 8% since Bloomberg reported on Tuesday how Novelis's aluminum plant disruption will likely affect Ford.

*  *  * 

A devastating fire at a major aluminum plant in New York in mid-September is set to roil the U.S. auto industry and could even disrupt production of Ford Motor's F-150 pickup trucks, according to a new Wall Street Journal report. 

The Novelis aluminum mill in Oswego, New York, suffered a fire on September 16 that destroyed the building housing the hot mill, rendering the plant inoperable until at least early 2026. This part of the facility is where sheet aluminum used by the auto industry is produced. 

The plant supplies about 40% of all aluminum sheet used by U.S. automakers, making it a very critical production node for America's auto industry. WSJ noted that Ford is the mill's largest customer and primarily uses the lightweight industrial metal for its top-selling and most profitable model, the F-150 pickup.

Shares of Ford in New York were hammered on the news by midday, down 7%, marking the worst intraday decline in eight months. 

WSJ cited industry analysts who warned the impacts of the mill's closure are widespread: 

Novelis produces more than 350,000 metric tons of sheet aluminum annually for the automotive industry, according to industry analysts. Around a dozen automakers get aluminum from Novelis, including Ford, Toyota, Hyundai, Volkswagen and Jeep maker Stellantis, according to a regulatory filing.

Kaustubh Chandorkar, an aluminum-industry analyst, said this incident "represents a serious question for the production of F-150 because that's the aluminum that comes out of Oswego." He pointed out that the automaker switched the F-150's exterior skin from steel to aluminum about a decade ago. 

"Since the fire nearly three weeks ago, Ford has been working closely with Novelis, and a full team is dedicated to addressing the situation and exploring all possible alternatives to minimize any potential disruptions," a Ford spokesperson stated.

Novelis, owned by India's Hindalco Industries, is preparing to mitigate production losses in the U.S. by sourcing the metal from overseas plants in Europe, Brazil, and South Korea. However, a 50% tariff on imported aluminum complicates things.

This incident could trigger one of the most severe supply shocks for North American automakers in years. All eyes are on Ford's upcoming earnings call for more details on the situation, as well as on its Dearborn Truck Plant and Kansas City Assembly Plant, for any signs of slowing production that would only signal snarled supply chains. 

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

It’s odd to consider, but a recession could flip our bullish outlook on bonds to bearish. It’s unusual because typically, inflation drops during a recession, leading to lower yields and higher bond prices. While we believe that if an economic downturn or recession occurs soon, the immediate effect on bonds will be favorable. However, the bigger question in our mind is how steep a decline in yields we might see.

While many factors will ultimately influence the answer, the primary constraint on a decline in yield may be the government’s response to a recession. In 2020 and again in 2021, the government issued checks to the public to stimulate economic growth. These checks, along with other large-scale fiscal spending and supply chain shutdowns, led to the highest inflation rates since the early 1980s. Although it’s unlikely that the next recession will face supply constraints like those during the pandemic, we worry that another round of fiscal stimulus, including direct payments to the public, could drive inflation higher. Moreover, grossly negligent fiscal deficits could further spur the bond vigilantes to pressure yields higher.

Some of our readers, upon hearing this concern, have asked us how Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) can protect them in such a situation. To answer their question, we review recent history and compare an actual TIPS to a non-inflation-adjusted Treasury bond (nominal bond) before, during, and after the 2022 inflation surge. Additionally, we provide an overview of TIPS to help you better understand their mechanics and when they might offer better returns than nominal bonds.

TIPS vs Nominal Bonds 2020-2025

In our opinion, a great way to help readers become better acquainted with TIPS is to illustrate how TIPS have performed over the last five years in comparison to a typical fixed-coupon non-TIP US Treasury bond (nominal bond).

To accomplish this, we selected a TIPS and a nominal bond with nearly identical maturities and issuance dates. Both bonds, detailed below, mature in October 2025, providing a complete performance picture.

TIP 

• Cusip: 91282CAQ4

• Coupon: 0.125%

• Issuance Yield:  -1.32%

• Issue Date:  10/15/2020

• Maturity Date:  10/15/2025

Nominal Bond

• Cusip: 91282CAT8

• Coupon: 0.250%

• Issuance Yield:  0.33%

• Issue Date:  11/2/2020

• Maturity Date:  10/31/2025

At issuance, the TIPS yield was -1.32% while the nominal bond yield was +0.33%. Therefore, at that time, the implied inflation rate, otherwise known as the breakeven inflation rate, for the next five years was 1.65%. Had the actual inflation rate over the next five years been 1.65%, the total return on the TIP would have been identical to that of the nominal bond at +0.33%. This calculation is based on the yield to maturity of -1.32% plus the inflation benefit of +1.65%.

It turns out inflation was almost 3% more than what the market expected. CPI, the index used for TIPS calculations, has averaged 4.43% since the bonds were issued. Thus, the yield on our TIP bond was not the -1.32% yield to maturity at issuance, nor the expected 0.33%, but 3.11% (-1.32% + 4.43%).  Investors who bet that actual inflation would exceed inflation expectations were rewarded for choosing TIPS over nominal bonds.

The graph and table below show the total returns of both bonds. Total return includes the coupon payments, the inflation factor, and the price changes from issuance to maturity.

TIPS Mechanics

TIPS are debt securities issued by the U.S. government. Like most U.S. Treasury securities, TIPS have a specified maturity date and coupon rate. However, unlike other Treasury bonds, the principal value of TIPS changes in response to inflation. The so-called TIPS inflation factor is multiplied by the par value to determine the principal value. But, even if inflation is negative, the principal will never drop below the bond’s original par value (100).

The dollar amount of the coupon payment is not constant, unlike nominal bonds. For TIPS, it is the coupon rate times the inflation-adjusted principal value. However, unlike other Treasury bonds, the principal value of TIPS varies with changes in the inflation rate. In our example above, the factor increased from 1.00 at issuance to 1.246 at maturity. As a result, the final coupon payment was 24.6% larger than the initial coupon payment.

Breakeven Inflation, Not Yield To Maturity

When comparing TIPS to other bonds, investors should focus less on the yield to maturity. Instead, the breakeven inflation rate is far more important.

For example, as we mentioned earlier, even though the initial yield to maturity was -1.32%, the yield at maturity for the TIPS ended up being +3.11%, not the -1.32% it was at issuance. The yield to maturity at issuance and at maturity for nominal bonds is always the same.

The breakeven rate is simply the yield difference between TIPS and nominal bonds with the same maturity date. If realized inflation over the life of a TIPS is less than the breakeven rate, the investor earns a lower return than if they had bought a nominal bond with the same maturity. Conversely, as we showed earlier, in our example, if inflation exceeds the breakeven rate, the TIPS investor earns a higher return than a nominal Treasury bond.

Current Environment

Currently, the yield on a five-year TIPS and a nominal Treasury bond is 1.15% and 3.65% respectively. Thus, the breakeven inflation rate is currently 2.50%.

For some market context, consider the following estimates of inflation for the next five years:

• University of Michigan Consumer Survey- 5 Year Inflation Expectations is currently 3.70%.

• The New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations median inflation expectation is 2.90%.

• The Cleveland Fed projects 2.32%

• The Fed’s FOMC current long-range inflation projection is 2.00%.

As an investor choosing between a 5-year TIPS and a nominal bond, the key question to ask is whether the CPI will average more or less than 2.50%.

Keep in mind that the answer might change during a recession. Therefore, TIPS could appear much more appealing than nominal bonds for those who believe the government will boost inflation with heavy fiscal spending.

Summary

Markets have a long history of assuming the future will be just like the past. Until 2020, the market assumed inflation would be benign. Over the last five years, that assumption has fallen apart, as we illustrated in our example. However, looking forward, we must assess whether the recent high-inflationary period will persist, or will the sub-2% inflation of the pre-pandemic era reassert itself?

In relation to this article, the answer to the question above may depend on whether or not a round or multiple rounds of checks are written to the populace to combat a recession.  

President Donald Trump is hosting a White House roundtable with independent journalists who have experienced Antifa's violence firsthand. In addition to journalists and influencers, Seamus Bruner, the lead researcher for Peter Schweizer's Government Accountability Institute, will also be at the table to discuss dark-money-funded NGO networks that are fueling chaos across America.

The roundtable discussion is scheduled for 3 p.m. EST and comes amid renewed Antifa attacks on ICE facilities in Portland and other crime-ridden sanctuary cities. Over the past decade, Democrats and left-wing groups have normalized assassination culture by labeling Trump and his supporters as "fascists" and "Nazis." That dangerous rhetoric has fueled an alarming wave of nihilistic accelerationism among extremist "woke warriors," culminating in horrific incidents such as the transgender mass shooter at a Catholic Church in Minneapolis and the political assassination of Charlie Kirk last month. The Kirk assassination placed radical leftist groups at the center of discussion for White House officials.     

"For too long, Antifa has ravaged great American cities while ineffectual Democrat leaders turn a blind eye — and most in the media have gone right along with them," White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson told Fox News Digital Wednesday, adding, "Some reporters have been brave enough to blaze their own trail and report the facts rather than go along with the Fake News Groupthink."

Fox News Digital reports that the roundtable will feature Trump delivering remarks before hearing from Cabinet members and independent journalists. These cabinet members and administration officials include Attorney General Pam Bondi, Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem, FBI Director Kash Patel, Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche, White House Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy and Homeland Security Advisor Stephen Miller, and White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt. 

Independent journalists slated to join the roundtable include Nick Sortor, Cam Higby, Jonathan Choe, Andy Ngo, Katie Daviscourt, James Klug, Savanah Hernandez, Nick Shirley, Brandi Kruse, and Julio Rojas. 

Jonathan Choe wrote on X, 

I'm heading to the White House with a group of independent journalists for what's being called a "Roundtable on Antifa." We are about to brief President Trump on how these domestic terrorists operate and it could help federal authorities disrupt their covert network. What a time to be alive. 

HAPPENING NOW: I'm heading to the White House with a group of independent journalists for what's being called a "Roundtable on Antifa."
We are about to brief President Trump on how these domestic terrorists operate and it could help federal authorities disrupt their covert… pic.twitter.com/mUbL57OecT

— Jonathan Choe (@choeshow) October 8, 2025

Bruner, the lead researcher for Peter Schweizer, is expected to share new details about dark-money–funded NGOs backed by foundations such as the Rockefeller Foundation, the Arabella Network, Tides, and Soros, along with foreign-linked funders like Neville Roy Singham, who have fueled unrest across the country. 

Bruner's briefing to Trump will build on the New York Times' report, citing a Capital Research Center report, that "Soros' Open Society gave $80 million to pro-terror groups"...

Here's a preview...

??The beginning of the end for Chaos, Inc.?
The Government Accountability Institute has mapped how non-governmental funding networks intersect with protest and activist movements across the US. The chaos and unrest spreading across this country, especially the ongoing anti-ICE… pic.twitter.com/IQlYwAKWuW

— Seamus Bruner (@seamusbruner) October 8, 2025

This will be music to Stephen Miller's ears, as the White House official recently declared war on the radical left, vowing to "disrupt" and "dismantle" the groups sowing chaos nationwide.

Watch Live:

. . . 

For Him // For Her // Save the planet

Authored by Mark Jeftovic via BombThrower.com,

“Blue Horseshoe Loves Gold and Bitcoin”

Suddenly the likes of Goldman and  JP Morgan are talking about this and the mainstream press are framing it as “the so-called Debasement Trade”

Bitcoiners, of course, have been talking about this for, well since the beginning.

Except, it’s not a “trade.”

The trade du jour lasts for a couple weeks or a few months – then it starts getting referred to as “a crowded trade” and then some new theme emerges and all the hot-money rotates into that.

Less than two weeks ago a finance guru I’m aware of (I won’t name him) sold 90% of his Bitcoin and crypto positions (via IBIT and ETH) “due to bearish MACD crosses and support breaks”. 

Bitcoin has since run to successive new ATHs.

As I’ve long said, Bitcoin isn’t a trade and trying to time it with chart patterns generally does not work. (I’ve never really felt like technical analysis carried much real predictive edge in general and when it comes to BTC, I’ve seen too many failed “death crosses” to change my opinion).

It’s a monetary regime change – if market participants are trading anything it’s getting rid of a currency (“it’s the denominator, stupid”) for a store of value – and we’re seeing it in spades with Bitcoin and gold:

what do you call this pic.twitter.com/qiWgG0bcGk

— Mark E. Jeftovic (@MarkJeftovic) October 6, 2025

To be fair to that finance influencer, I don’t follow him enough to know if he maintains separate core Bitcoin stack in self-custody, and these moves are just referring to his trading activities, as distinct from long term holds. He apparently rotated into TSLA and silver. He’s also since followed up, acknowledging that Bitcoin ran to fresh highs, but he still expects a 40% to 50% decline in cryptos over the next year because of that MACD crossover. That said, he sold his TSLA and went back into Bitcoin (which has since dropped about $4K  )

I don’t know if he’ll be proven right or wrong about a 50% drop  – what I do know, and something I found out the hard way right when I was about to launch The Bitcoin Capitalist Letter, was that trying to pick the intermediate tops and bottoms when it came to Bitcoin was a fool’s errand.

You end up getting whipsawed. It sure looks like I’m watching it happen to this guy right now.

The advice I’ve been giving to my subscribers over the years, both for Bitcoin and the stocks we hold in our portfolio has always been:

• Don’t try to time or trade the intermediate tops

• Whenever Bitcoin (or one of our holdings drops) we ask ourselves:

  • Is the underlying thesis intact?

  • If yes: the only decision is whether to buy more or hold through

  • If no: then you exit the position, at the moment your thesis is invalidated, regardless of the price.

• Beyond that – exit when your own personal financial goals are met.

That’s it,  basically the entire Bitcoin Capitalist playbook right here 

What got me thinking about all this today was all these headlines we’ve been seeing lately about “The Debasement Trade”.

This has been so obvious to Bitcoiners (and before that, goldbugs), for so long, that I didn’t really “clue in” to the fact that our entire long-term thesis is finally in the process of being mainstreamed right now.

Mainstream establishment analyst wakes up to what we have been talking about for 5 years. In fact, some of us even wrote books about it! @elerianm (had to do a screen shot because he blocked me). Proof that the elites are late and are not even here yet. pic.twitter.com/oxxOKClRpi

— Lawrence Lepard, "fix the money, fix the world" (@LawrenceLepard) October 2, 2025

Gold and BTC hitting all-time highs together is sending a signal.

Bond yields going up even though central banks are cutting rates, is sending a signal.

Stonks are hitting levels that make the .com bubble look like a bombed-out value play.

Why?

Because these aren’t trades anymore.

It’s capital flight.

*  *  *

The Bitcoin Capitalist Letter is our premium service for Bitcoin macro and the future of fintech. Try a special deal for Bombthrower readers here »
Sign up for the Bombthrower Mailing List here and get a free copy of The Bitcoin Treasuries Playbook.
Follow me Twitter/X or Nostr: npub1elwpzsul8d9k4tgxqdjuzxp0wa94ysr4zu9xeudrcxe2h3sazqkq5mehan

Update (1010ET): As expected, Comey sauntered into court in Alexandria, Virginia today and pleaded 'not guilty' at this morning's arraignment. 

Comey pleads not guilty pic.twitter.com/19hapS5N0Q

— Karli Bonne’ ???? (@KarluskaP) October 8, 2025

Seems he was even allowed to enter through the back door, avoiding cameras. 

?? JUST IN: James Comey has arrived at the courthouse to be arraigned. He was NOT brought through the front for all the cameras to see. pic.twitter.com/AX46z21sdO

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 8, 2025

*  *  * Stock up for fall, or the fall. 

Former FBI Director James Comey - who's been charged with lying and obstruction of justice, is set to be arraigned today in Alexandria, Virginia - just outside Washington.

Comey - who was also a key player in the Russiagate hoax, spying on Trump's campaign, downplaying Hillary's emails, etc. - has not been arrested since his indictment by a grand jury, and will apparently just 'show up' for his arraignment. 

The two counts are:

• False Statement - under 18 U.S.C. § 1001, the charge alleges that in his 2020 Senate testimony he falsely claimed he had not authorized someone at the FBI to act as an anonymous source to the news media.
• Obstruction of a Congressional Proceeding - under 18 U.S.C. § 1505, for allegedly making misleading statements that impeded the Senate Judiciary Committee’s investigation.

Not to worry, Democrats - the FBI promises not to wrinkle Comey's suit with a perp walk - the kind Comey subjected multiple members of Trump's first team to... According to Fox News, Director Kash Patel and Deputy AG Todd Blanche insist that reports of a camera-ready Comey arrest are nothing more than a distraction.

"Mr. Comey has been directed to appear, and I expect that he will. But the noise from MSNBC and from retired agents or unnamed anonymous sources about perp walks is just that," Blanche told the outlet , adding "It's just noise." 

Wouldn't Roger Stone or Peter Navarro have appeared too when Comey's FBI was in charge?

Roger Stone was perp walked on live TV for what he claims is the same crime Comey committed

Kash Patel is said to be considering this for Comey

Raise your hand ?? if you want Kash to send FBI agents to Comey's house and perp walk him out on live TV like they did to Stone pic.twitter.com/pyCgvYkyjr

— @Chicago1Ray ???? (@Chicago1Ray) October 6, 2025

Also kinda interesting... the judge in the case is U.S. District Judge Michael Nachmanoff, whose father, Arnold Nachmanoff, was pals with former President Barack Obama's father, wrote Kissinger about the Cubans, was an NSC staffer, and worked in Naval intelligence. And now his son will oversee James Comey's trial.

Meanwhile, Patel told staff at the Chicago field office that media reports about a Comey perp walk were a "distraction" from the FBI's work. 

"The mainstream media wants to take the eye off the ball and create theater," Patel said, after having not raided Comey's house to rifle through his shit. 

Patel dismisses perp walk rumors, says no 'theater' in Comey indictment https://t.co/33qldv5K7A

— Fox News Politics (@foxnewspolitics) October 8, 2025

Patel and Blanche's statements come after Reuters, MSNBC and other outlets reported in recent days that an FBI official was canned for refusing to take part in a Comey perp walk. 

Muted Victory Lap for Trump 

When Comey was indicted last month, President Trump celebrated what he called “Justice in America!” on social media, calling Comey “one of the worst human beings this Country has ever been exposed to” and declaring that he was “finally being held responsible for his crimes.”

Comey - who weeks earlier joked about a Trump assassination - responded like a wounded dove.

In a self-produced Instagram video, the ex-G-man claimed his family had “known for years that there are costs to standing up to Donald Trump.” He vowed that he “won’t live on his knees” - a defiant posture that rang hollow to many who remember his years of leaks, contradictions, and political gamesmanship at the FBI.

What a SICK PSYCHOPATH James Comey truly is! Here’s his Instagram video that he just released.
Yeah, you’re INNOCENT, Comey, just like the moon is square! ????????? pic.twitter.com/iUhoZu927Z

— MAGA Kitty (@SaveUSAKitty) September 26, 2025

Comey said his “heart is broken for the Department of Justice,” but insisted he welcomed the chance to clear his name at trial. For Trump, the stakes are high — an acquittal would hand the media another cudgel to accuse him of “weaponizing” the DOJ. But if Comey is convicted, it would be a stunning vindication for Trump. 

Bondi vs. Democrats

Attorney General Pam Bondi faced hostile questions Tuesday in a fiery Senate Judiciary hearing. Democrats accused her of acting as Trump’s “personal lawyer” after Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) flashed a photo of her dining with Trump others the night before Comey’s indictment.

BLUMENTHAL: The night before Comey's indictment, you had dinner with the president. A pretty intimate group

BONDI: Actually there were a lot of people there that night

BLUMENTHAL: Did you discuss James Comey?

BONDI: I love that picture pic.twitter.com/8wQdTheAyp

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) October 7, 2025

She also pointed out Blumenthal's stolen valor...

???? AG BONDI TO SEN. BLUMENTHAL: DON'T QUESTION MY ABILITY TO BE FAIR AND IMPARTIAL AS AG

"I cannot believe that you would accuse me of impropriety when you lied about your military service.

I am a career prosecutor, don't you ever challenge my integrity.

I have abided by every… https://t.co/uwr3WOf9ut pic.twitter.com/ZMPQD5JDoV

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) October 7, 2025

Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) pressed further, asking if Trump’s September post urging Bondi to “seek Comey’s indictment” amounted to a directive. Bondi dismissed the insinuation, saying everyone already knew where Trump stood - and had for years.

Bondi won't answer Klobuchar's question about if she was directed by the White House to prosecuted Comey but lies that Trump "is the most transparent president in American history" pic.twitter.com/uyCWeDqfMP

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) October 7, 2025

Then she slammed Democrats for shutting down the government.

Anything better on a Tuesday morning than watching Pam Bondi BlTCH SLAP Amy Klobuchar???

pic.twitter.com/SWADFiCbdR

— SaltyGoat (@SaltyGoat17) October 7, 2025

Are you not entertained? Also, where's the list Pam?

Since the last FOMC meeting (when The fed cut rates by 25bps with one dissent for 50bps on Sept 17th), gold has gone to the moon, stocks are higher (as is the dollar) while bonds are down modestly...

Source: Bloomberg

As a reminder, at his post-meeting press conference, Chair Powell characterized the rate cut as a risk management decision, responding to meaningful downside risks to the labor market, but stressed that he does not feel the need to move quickly on rates.

Despite the lack of data (due to the government shutdown), the labor market is cooling, and now policymakers are turning their attention to that side of the mandate (though we note that housing data saw a huge upside surprise while soft survey data since the FOMC meeting has weakened)...

Powell said that moving rates down slightly supports a more neutral policy stance and balances risks to employment and inflation. 

The government shutdown is seen as complicating the Fed's data-dependent policy approach, with key employment and inflation releases (including weekly jobless claims, September payrolls, and CPI reports) delayed; analysts say this could cloud judgment for the October FOMC meeting, increasing uncertainty over further rate cuts amid the Committee's divided views on inflation, GDP growth, and labor market resilience.

Interestingly, the odds of a 25bps cut in Oct (29th) has risen from 75% to 95% since the last FOMC meeting while the odds of an additional cut in December has slipped to just above 80%...

Source: Bloomberg

The Fed Chair emphasized a meeting-by-meeting approach, guided by incoming data, and noted that markets are pricing in a path of cuts, but the Fed is focused on the data rather than market expectations. Current market expectations are for 44bps of cuts in 2025 (unchanged since the meeting) and 63bps of cuts in 2026 (hawkishly lower than the 73bps at the meeting).

Powell has spoken again after the FOMC meeting and said the Committee will continue balancing high inflation risks against a slowing job market in upcoming rate decisions, maintaining flexibility rather than a preset path.

So, what does The Fed want us to know it was thinking during the meeting?

Almost all participants supported 25bps cut to Fed funds rate at the September meeting.

“Most judged that it likely would be appropriate to ease policy further over the remainder of this year,” according to minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s Sept. 16-17 meeting.

One participant preferred a 50bps rate cut at last month’s meeting.

Some noted financial conditions suggested policy may not be particularly restrictive, those participants judged a cautious approach to future policy was warranted.

“A few participants stated there was merit in keeping the federal funds rate unchanged at this meeting or that they could have supported such a decision,” the minutes said.

"Around half" of Fed officials saw another two interest rate cuts by the end of 2025 (which we already knew from the Dot Plot).

Most participants judged the downside risks to employment had increased, upside risks to inflation had either diminished or not increased.

The record of the meeting also showed “a majority of participants emphasized upside risks to their outlooks for inflation.”

A few participants noted the standing Repo facility would help keep the Fed funds rate in the target range and ensure money market pressures would not disrupt ongoing quantitative tightening.

Fed staff revised up the GDP growth projection for 2025 through 2028.

Equity prices continued to rise over the intermeeting period and stood very close to record highs despite the recent weaker-than-expected employment reports.

A few participants commented that the agricultural sector continued to face headwinds because of low crop prices and high input costs.

Read the full minutes below:

After yesterday's ugly 3Y auction, moments ago the Treasury sold $39 billion in 10Y paper (technically a 9 Year, 10 Month reopening of cusip NT4), and the reception was again rather disappointing. 

The note priced at a high yield of 4.117%, up from 4.033% in Sept, but except for that one month, it was the lowest since Oct 2024. The auction also tailed the 4.114% When Issued by 0.3bps, following last month's stop and was the 2nd tail in the last 8 auctions.

The bid to cover dropped from 2.65% to 2.478%, which while not the worst in the past year wasn't too far off, and was well below the 2.57 six-auction average. 

The internals were also ugly, with Indirects (aka foreign bidders) plunging from 83.1% to 66.8%, which also was below the six-auction average of 73.7%. And with Directs taking down 24.1%, or the highest in 11 years...

... Dealers were left with a modest 9.1%, below the recent average of 10.0%, but above last month's record low of 4.2%.

Overall, this was a subpar and disappointing 10Y auction, but it could have been worse, which is why while yields moved by 1-2bps higher across the curve, pushing the 10Y to 4.125%, they are well off yesterday's session highs.

How's your shutdown going so far? 

So far, no mass firings. The sky is intact. Cats are not sleeping with dogs. And low-income food aid isn't at risk, after the White House found funding to keep the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children (also known as WIC) afloat using tariff revenues "for the foreseeable future," a White House official tells Axios. 

The program — which provides vouchers for healthy food, breastfeeding assistance and nutritional education — was in danger of running out of funding within weeks amid the government shutdown. 

The tariff money infusion was described as a temporary fix by a White House official, who said that the Office of Management and Budget had worked to find a "creative solution" to preserve WIC. 

In 2024, the federal government spent over $7 billion to fund the program, which benefits over 6 million people in the United States. 

"President Trump and the White House have identified a creative solution to transfer resources from Section 232 tariff revenue to this critical program," White House spox Karoline Leavitt told the outlet. "The Trump White House will not allow impoverished mothers and their babies to go hungry because of the Democrats' political games." 

Said creative solution came one day after CNN and other outlets 'sounded the alarm' over 'Millions of moms and young kids' who could 'lose WIC food assistance within two weeks.'