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Thu, 21 May 2026 17:00:00 +0000 The News-to-Death Ratio Strikes Again
The News-to-Death Ratio Strikes Again
The News-to-Death Ratio Strikes Again
Authored by Carl Henegan and Tom Jefferson via The Brownstone Institute,
There is a peculiar arithmetic that governs modern health reporting, one that has very little to do with actual risk. Hans Rosling captured it neatly during the 2009 swine flu episode, when he calculated a “news-to-death ratio” of 8,176-to-1. In other words, for every death attributed to swine flu, there were over eight thousand news stories. Tuberculosis, by contrast, received less than 0.1 news stories per death over the same period.
VIDEO
If that sounds absurd, it is, and yet very little has changed.
Take the current hantavirus scare. A cruise ship, the MV Hondius , sits off Cape Verde. There are 7 cases in total (2 confirmed, 5 suspected) and 3 deaths, including a Dutch couple and a German national. Passengers have been confined to their cabins while evacuations and disinfection efforts are organised. It is, undeniably, a dramatic story: a floating Petri dish, a whiff of quarantine, and a hint of the exotic.
In the past week alone, there have been at least 10 to 15 unique news stories, generating hundreds of articles. For a disease that, in normal times, struggles to attract even a single weekly mention, this represents a surge bordering on the hysterical.
And yet it is worth stepping back for a moment and asking, what are we actually looking at?
Hantavirus is a rare disease. In the United States, which diligently tracks such cases, there have been 890 laboratory-confirmed instances since 1993. In the UK, the situation is even less clear: from 2012 to early 2025, only 11 domestically acquired symptomatic cases have been recorded. Surprisingly, nine of these cases were not linked to cruise ships or exotic travel, but rather to a more mundane source—exposure to “pet fancy rats” or rodents bred as reptile feed.
This is not a pathogen ready to spread through the Home Counties. However, the rarity is not the issue; visibility is.
Diseases that afflict the poor, quietly and persistently, rarely command attention. Tuberculosis killed 1.23 million people globally in 2024. Over a million deaths every year, largely concentrated in less affluent parts of the world. It is one of the most lethal infectious diseases known to medicine, and yet it barely registers in the Western news cycle.
Why? Because TB is familiar, it is slow; It lacks narrative flair, and it does not trap well-heeled passengers in their cabins while helicopters circle overhead.
If you want coverage, you need something else entirely. You need novelty, uncertainty, and above all, proximity to affluence. A cruise ship outbreak ticks every box: a disease with a balcony suite.
This is the uncomfortable truth behind Rosling’s ratio: the media does not report risk, it reports drama . And drama requires context that audiences can imagine themselves in.
A rodent-borne virus in some remote rural setting barely registers. Put that very same virus aboard a cruise ship with buffet queues, balcony cabins, and a passenger list that looks uncomfortably like the readership, and suddenly it becomes headline news.
The result is a profound distortion of public perception. We are invited to worry about the improbable while ignoring the inevitable and reality. A handful of hantavirus cases generates dozens of headlines; a million tuberculosis deaths pass with barely a murmur.
If we were to apply Rosling’s lens to the present moment, the imbalance would be obvious. Three deaths linked to a suspected hantavirus cluster have produced hundreds of reports in a matter of days. Meanwhile, tuberculosis continues its relentless toll with scarcely a fraction of that attention.
The modern “news-to-death ratio” may not be precisely 8,176-to-1, but the underlying pattern remains intact.
The lesson here isn’t truly about hantavirus; instead, it’s about how we collectively determine what is significant.
Diseases associated with poverty—those that are endemic, predictable, and devastating—often fail to attract media attention because they don’t instill fear in the right audience or in the right way. No one is interested in the thousands of cholera deaths that are too remote, too ordinary, and lack the dramatic impact that draws interest. What commands attention are diseases that puncture our sense of safety, the kind that can slip past the gangway and make themselves at home on a cruise ship.
This post was written by two old geezers who live in a world where risk is misread, priorities are skewed, and the arithmetic of attention bears little resemblance to the arithmetic of death .
Republished from the authors’ Substack
Tyler Durden
Thu, 05/21/2026 - 13:00 Close
Thu, 21 May 2026 16:20:00 +0000 Jane Street Accused Of Using Terra Telegram Backchannel Before UST Crash
Jane Street Accused Of Using Terra Telegram Backchannel Before UST Crash
Jane Street Accused Of Using Terra Telegram Backchannel Before UST Crash
Authored by Zoltan Vardai via CoinTelegraph.com,
A newly unsealed court filing in the Terraform Labs bankruptcy case alleges Jane Street used a private Telegram channel with former Terraform intern Bryce Pratt to obtain nonpublic information before the collapse of TerraUSD . Pratt is currently a systems developer at Jane Street.
The channel, called “Bryce’s Secret,” allegedly gave the quantitative trading firm a backchannel to Terraform insiders as Jane Street unwound exposure to TerraUSD (UST) shortly before the algorithmic stablecoin lost its dollar peg in May 2022, according to the filing. “Jane Street used Bryce’s Secret chat group and other backchannel sources of non-public information to front-run trading that hastened the collapse of Terraform,” the filing states.
The claims renew scrutiny of who profited from Terra’s $40 billion collapse, one of the crypto industry’s largest failures, and could test how traditional insider trading and market manipulation theories apply to decentralized finance markets.
On Feb. 23, Todd Snyder, Terraform’s court-appointed administrator, sued Jane Street , its co-founder Robert Granieri, and employees Bryce Pratt and Michael Huang in Manhattan federal court, accusing them of “misappropriating confidential information and manipulating market prices.”
Two months later, Jane Street filed a motion to dismiss the lawsuit, arguing that Terraform attempted to “extract cash from Jane Street to foot the bill for a fraud that Terraform itself perpetrated on the market,” Cointelegraph reported on April 23.
A spokesperson for Jane Street told Cointelegraph that the lawsuit was a transparent attempt to “extract money when it is well-established that the losses suffered by Terra and Luna holders were the result of a multi-billion dollar fraud perpetrated by the management of Terraform Labs.”
Terraform Labs court filing in the lawsuit against Jane Street. Source: cloudfront.net
Curve trade raises new UST concerns
The timing of a particular UST trade has raised more concerns, suggesting potential access to insider information by an unknown entity.
On May 7, 2022, Terraform quietly withdrew about $150 million in UST from the Curve 3pool liquidity pool.
Less than 10 minutes after Terraform’s withdrawal, Curve 3pool saw its largest single swap of $85 million, precipitating a steep sell-off in UST, which the filing said “ultimately led to the collapse of the Terra ecosystem.”
The heavily redacted filing does not identify the entity behind the swap.
Terraform Labs court filing in the lawsuit against Jane Street. Source: cloudfront.net
Snyder seeks to recover alleged wrongful gains from Jane Street, plus compensation for additional damages to distribute to Terraform creditors and investors who lost funds in the 2022 collapse.
Jane Street is the world’s leading quantitative trading firm by net trading revenue, with $39.6 billion generated in 2025, reported Reuters.
Cointelegraph reached out to Terraform’s court-appointed administrator for comment but had not received a response by publication.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 05/21/2026 - 12:20 Close
Thu, 21 May 2026 16:00:00 +0000 "Drills Are Intended To Send A Signal": Russia Holds Massive Nuclear Drills On Land, Sea And Air Alongside Belarus
"Drills Are Intended To Send A Signal": Russia Holds Massive Nuclear Drills On Land, Sea And Air Alongside Belarus
Trucks carrying intercontinental ballistic missiles rumbled over forest roads, atomic-powered submarines set sail fro
Read more.....
"Drills Are Intended To Send A Signal": Russia Holds Massive Nuclear Drills On Land, Sea And Air Alongside Belarus
Trucks carrying intercontinental ballistic missiles rumbled over forest roads, atomic-powered submarines set sail from Arctic and Pacific ports, and crews scrambled into warplanes as Russia and neighboring Belarus held the final stage of their joint nuclear drills Thursday.
Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the maneuvers in a video call with his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko. “The use of nuclear weapons is an extreme, exceptional measure for ensuring the national security of our states,” Putin said, according to AP .
Lukashenko earlier inspected Russian short-range nuclear-capable Iskander ballistic missiles at a military unit involved in the drills and declared: “I dreamed about this machine a long time ago.”
The three-day drills that began Tuesday come amid a surge in Ukrainian drone strikes. including on Moscow’s suburbs that killed three people and damaged several buildings and industrial facilities. The strikes made it harder for officials in the Kremlin to cast the conflict in Ukraine — now in its fifth year — as something so distant that it doesn’t affect the daily routines of Russian civilians.
Drills involve wide array of nuclear weapons
Russia’s Defense Ministry said the exercise involved 64,000 troops, over 200 missile launchers, more than 140 aircraft, 73 surface warships and 13 submarines, including eight armed with nuclear-tipped ICBMs. The drills focused on the “preparation and use of nuclear forces under the threat of aggression,” it said.
The maneuvers also practice cooperation with Belarus, an ally that hosts Russian nuclear weapons. Russian arsenals in Belarus include its latest intermediate range nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile system.
A Yars ICBM is seen during drills of Russia's nuclear forces in Belarus (Russian defense ministry).
Along with nuclear-tipped ground- and submarine-launched ICBMs , the maneuvers featured a broad assortment of short- and medium-range weapons.
Unlike the intercontinental missiles that can destroy entire cities, tactical nuclear weapons intended for use against troops on the battlefield are less powerful. They include aerial bombs and warheads for short- and medium-range missiles and artillery munitions.
The Defense Ministry said the Russian armed forces test-fired Yars and Sineva ICBMs, as well as medium-range sea-launched Zircon and air-launched Kinzhal missiles, noting that all missiles hit their designated practice targets. Belarusian troops test-fired a short-range Iskander ballistic missile inside Russia.
Putin has repeatedly reminded the world about Moscow’s nuclear arsenals since the war in Ukraine started in February 2022 to deter the West from ramping up support for Kyiv.
In 2024, the Kremlin adopted a revised nuclear doctrine, noting that any nation’s conventional attack on Russia that is supported by a nuclear power will be considered a joint attack on his country. That threat was clearly aimed at discouraging the West from allowing Ukraine to strike Russia with longer-range weapons and appears to significantly lower the threshold for the possible use of Moscow’s nuclear arsenal.
Russia's new Sarmat ICBM is being test launched at an unspecified location in Russia (Russian defense ministry).
The revised doctrine also placed Belarus under the Russian nuclear umbrella. Putin has said that Moscow will retain control of its nuclear weapons deployed in Belarus, which borders Ukraine and NATO members Latvia, Lithuania and Poland, but would allow its ally to select the targets in case of conflict.
Drills come as Ukrainian drones spotted in the Baltics
The maneuvers are held amid an increase in drone activity in the Baltic nations. On Tuesday, a NATO jet shot down a Ukrainian drone over southern Estonia. Ukraine apologized for that “unintended incident,” without specifying what had happened.
On Wednesday, an emergency announcement about a drone flying over Belarus prompted residents of the Lithuanian capital of Vilnius, including top officials and lawmakers, to take shelter and led to a brief closure of its airport.
Ukrainian drones targeting Russia’s Baltic ports and energy facilities have recently crossed or come down in NATO territory on several occasions. Amusingly, instead of blaming the source, Ukraine, Western officials blamed Russian electronic jamming of the drones.
Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service said Tuesday that Ukraine is preparing drone attacks against Russia from the territory of the Baltic countries and warned of retaliation It alleged Ukrainian military personnel had been deployed to Latvia and warned that the country’s membership in NATO wouldn’t protect it from “just retribution.” Latvian authorities said the allegation was not true.
Last month, the Russian Defense Ministry published a list of factories in Europe that it said were involved in producing drones and their components for Ukraine. It warned that attacks on Russia involving drones manufactured in Europe are fraught with “unpredictable consequences.”
Some commentators interpreted the bellicose statements from Moscow and this week’s exercise featuring short- and medium-range nuclear weapons capable of reaching targets in Europe as part of Kremlin efforts to discourage Western allies from bolstering support for Ukraine.
Asked what message the nuclear exercise was intended to send, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded that “any drills are intended to send a signal,” but wouldn’t elaborate.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 05/21/2026 - 12:00 Close
Thu, 21 May 2026 15:40:00 +0000 US Targets Hamas Support Networks
US Targets Hamas Support Networks
US Targets Hamas Support Networks
Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
The Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) is sanctioning four individuals associated with a pro-Hamas flotilla that is trying to access Gaza in support of the terrorist group , the department said in a May 19 statement.
Hamas terrorists secure an area before handing over an Israeli American hostage to a Red Cross team in Gaza City on Feb. 1, 2025. Photo by SAEED JARAS/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images
The flotilla is organized by the Popular Conference for Palestinians Abroad (PCPA), which has been classified as a specially designated global terrorist by the United States.
"The PCPA was established with funding from Hamas's International Relations Bureau and Hamas directs its activity through the placement of Hamas officials throughout the organization, including its executive body, the General Secretariat ," the Treasury said.
"So-called humanitarian flotillas that are organized by or supporting designated parties represent a significant compliance risk for financial institutions. Sanctioned terrorist groups continue to maintain significant influence over maritime flotillas to Gaza."
The four individuals sanctioned by the Treasury include a Spanish member of the PCPA's General Secretariat, who is a central figure of the flotilla; the acting secretary general and president of the PCPA, who is from Jordan; a Belgium-based European coordinator for the Samidoun organization; and a Samidoun coordinator from Spain.
Samidoun is a front organization for the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, which the State Department has designated as a foreign terrorist organization. Both the PCPA and Samidoun act on behalf of sanctioned Palestinian terrorist organizations, the Treasury said.
In addition, OFAC sanctioned several members of Muslim Brotherhood networks who are aligned with Hamas.
All property and interests in property of the sanctioned individuals that are in the United States or in control of U.S. persons are effectively blocked and must be reported to OFAC. The sanctions prohibit U.S. persons from engaging in any transactions involving the property or interests in property of those who are sanctioned.
"The pro-terror flotilla attempting to reach Gaza is a ludicrous attempt to undermine President Trump's successful progress toward lasting peace in the region ," Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent said. "Treasury will continue to sever Hamas' global financial support networks, no matter where in the world they are."
State Department spokesperson Thomas Pigott said in a May 19 statement that OFAC has targeted three enablers - the flotilla organizers, Muslim Brotherhood members, and Samidoun members - who he said are used by Hamas to sustain its position in Gaza, engage in terrorist violence, and finance its operations.
OFAC's action exposes how Hamas exploits purported civil society organizations, diaspora groups, and religious institutions "to advance its malign agenda while claiming humanitarian objectives," according to the spokesperson.
"Under President Trump, the United States remains committed to supporting efforts to achieve lasting peace in the Middle East," he added. "We will continue to use all available tools to counter those who support terrorism and obstruct the path to a peaceful resolution of the conflict."
Hamas-UN Ties
Meanwhile, U.S. lawmakers are aiming to eliminate a U.N. agency accused of employing Hamas terrorists, according to a May 19 statement from the office of Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.). The agency being targeted is the U.N. Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA).
In February 2025, President Donald Trump signed an executive order banning funding for UNRWA. According to the order, the agency has reportedly been infiltrated by members of foreign terrorist organizations, with employees from the organization being directly involved in the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel.
UNRWA has dismissed these allegations. In a September 2025 fact sheet, the agency said that claims of some members of its staff in Gaza having links with Hamas or the Palestinian Islamic Jihad are false and that it has "not received any information, let alone any evidence, from the Israeli Authorities or any other Member State " about such accusations.
In a May 18 letter to Trump, Cotton and 24 colleagues asked that the administration take "decisive action to fully dismantle UNRWA and eliminate it from the UN budget."
"Any aid organization in Gaza or otherwise must be demonstrably free of ties to terrorism and committed to transparency, accountability, and peace," they said in the letter. "We must ensure this failed system doesn't continue reinforcing the conditions that have fueled terrorism for generations. The time to act is now."
Tyler Durden
Thu, 05/21/2026 - 11:40 Close
Thu, 21 May 2026 15:20:00 +0000 Turkey Liquidated Almost All Of Its US Treasuries In March To Defend Crashing Lira
Turkey Liquidated Almost All Of Its US Treasuries In March To Defend Crashing Lira
Turkey Liquidated Almost All Of Its US Treasuries In March To Defend Crashing Lira
Two months ago, at the end of March, we reported that Turkey was aggressively dumping its gold reserves in a panic scramble to obtain dollar funding, which Erdogan's regime was using to keep the Turkish lira from crashing, and to also pay for energy imports which had suddenly soared in price as a result of the Iran war.
The violent selling by Turkey (and other emerging markets) was behind the brutal plunge in gold prices, which tumbled by more than $1000 from near all-time highs at the start of the war to the low 4000s by the time Turkey had done selling much of its gold.
Then earlier this week , we got another confirmation of Turkey's wild liquidation spree when the latest central bank data showed that Turkey’s foreign reserves had their biggest monthly decline on record in March , as the Iran war triggered global selloffs in emerging market assets and strained the lira.
According to balance-of-payments data, Turkey's official reserves cratered by $43.4 billion in March. Part of the decline reflected state intervention to offset portfolio outflows. The current-account deficit, meanwhile, widened to $9.7 billion in March from $7.3 billion in February as a result of soaring commodity prices.
A major energy importer, Turkey has been hit hard by higher oil and gas prices caused by the effective closing of the Strait of Hormuz and the resulting disruptions to world supplies of crude and refined products. Meanwhile, global banks have started changing their formerly favorable outlook on the lira, citing the exploding current-account deficit. Should inflation pressures persist, Turkey will have no choice but to pursue another accelerated devaluation of the Turkish lira.
“As international institutions continue to raise their average oil price forecasts for 2026, disruptions in supply chains and ongoing regional tensions — and their potential negative impact on transportation and tourism revenues — keep upward risks alive in year-end projections ” for Turkey, said Istanbul-based economist Haluk Burumcekci.
Turkish central bank Governor Fatih Karahan said last week that the ratio between the current-account deficit and gross domestic product would be “below historical averages” this year while acknowledging the upside risks.
Yet as we said in March, while selling gold is a step of clear desperation for Turkey which had put in much efforts in recent years to build up a substantial gold stock, it is understandable for a regime that suddenly finds itself in a dollar funding crisis, the bigger question is did Turkey do the same with its holdings of Treasuries which are far more liquid and thus far less likely to move the market even when facing a sizable liquidation.
The answer, we learned today, is a resounding yes.
According to Bloomberg calculations based on US Treasury data, Turkey sold almost all of its US Treasuries in March as it stepped up efforts to support its currency during the first month of the Iran war. The amount of Treasuries held by Turkey crashed to just $1.8 billion by the end of March, down from $16 billion the previous month , the data showed. The figure includes securities held by the central bank and other Turkish entities, including corporates.
The decline coincided with a selloff in Turkish markets after the Middle East conflict erupted, sending oil prices sharply higher. The central bank moved immediately to prevent a crash in the lira by tightening funding conditions and selling off foreign exchange and gold assets. Its interventions also included swapping gold from reserves, although now that it has also dumped the bulk of its last ditch dollar reserves, those swaps will almost certainly end up forcing Turkey to hand over whatever gold was pledged.
Turkey’s Treasury holdings were as high as $21 billion in February 2025 after the country spent a year rebuilding reserves. They had peaked about a decade ago at $80 billion, before steadily declining as relations with the US soured over a range of political and geopolitical disputes, and as Turkey consistently sold reserves to maintain a smooth devaluation of the lira.
Despite the interventions, the lira has remained under pressure as the war drags on. Last week, the central bank raised its year-end inflation target to 24% from 16%, after data showed annual inflation accelerated to 32.4%. Turkish bonds have also suffered steep losses, with 10-year yields hitting record highs of 35.75%.
And now that Turkey has no more gold or Treasurys with which to defend the currency, expect a sharp and painful death in the currency which has gone from less than 10 against the dollar five years ago to a record 45.6 today..
Tyler Durden
Thu, 05/21/2026 - 11:20 Close
Thu, 21 May 2026 15:05:00 +0000 Is The Bond Market About To Break Washington
Is The Bond Market About To Break Washington
Is The Bond Market About To Break Washington
Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance
The bond market is beginning to force reality onto Washington, and it may ultimately force an end to the Iran war long before politicians or diplomats are willing to admit it.
For months, investors have focused on missiles, retaliation headlines, oil chokepoints, and the possibility of a broader regional escalation from the Iran War. During the geopolitical noise, I urged readers not to overlook stress in financial markets that was happening before the war even started, namely in places like private credit and subprime auto lending . I called these “real crises” hiding behind record highs while “investors” chase gamma squeezes higher in an ongoing distortion feedback loop that is making things look far better than they are under the surface.
And now, beneath all the geopolitical noise, a much more serious, harder to ignore crisis is unfolding. As Cypher says in The Matrix:
"Fasten your seat belt Dorothy, 'cause Kansas is going bye-bye."
This crisis is in the Treasury market. Bond yields are moving sharply higher, and they are sending a message that policymakers can no longer afford to ignore: the financial system is becoming unstable under the weight of war spending, massive deficits, persistent inflation, and a debt load that was already unsustainable before this conflict began.
The bond market does not give a flying fuck about political narratives, gamma squeezes, meme stocks, retail investors or any other ticky tacky end-around style loopholes that continue to push stocks higher. It cares about math, fiscal policy and monetary policy. And the math is getting ugly very quickly.
The 10-year Treasury yield is arguably the single most important price in global finance because virtually every major asset class is built on top of it. Mortgage rates, commercial real estate valuations, private equity models, corporate borrowing costs, equity multiples, venture capital, and government financing itself all depend on stable Treasury markets. When yields rise too quickly, everything starts repricing at once. That is why this matters so much more than the daily moves in the stock market.
Washington understands this, even if it refuses to say it publicly.
The United States can survive political embarrassment overseas, but it simply cannot survive a disorderly Treasury market.
That is why I believe the bond market is eventually going to force a few things. First, a de-escalation of the Iran conflict. The priority now is no longer “victory” or even geopolitical strategy. The priority is restoring stability before bond yields spiral completely out of control. A prolonged war that keeps oil prices elevated while deficits explode higher is simply incompatible with a heavily indebted financial system already struggling under the burden of high interest rates.
The problem is that America entered this conflict from an extraordinarily weak fiscal position to begin with. This is not World War II, when the country had a young population, industrial dominance, low debt levels, and decades of economic expansion ahead of it. Today the US government is already running deficits approaching $2 trillion annually during what is supposedly a normal economic environment. Interest expense on the national debt has already become one of the largest items in the federal budget. Now add war spending, weakening foreign demand for Treasuries, rising commodity prices, and higher refinancing costs, and the entire situation starts looking dangerously unstable.
This is where the inflation problem becomes unavoidable.
War has always been inflationary, but not just because of oil shocks or supply chain disruptions. The deeper issue is debt creation itself. Wars are financed through borrowing, and borrowing at these levels increasingly requires central bank intervention one way or another. The process is actually very simple: war creates debt, debt pressures the financial system, and eventually the system responds through some combination of money creation, currency debasement, and financial repression.
That is exactly what the bond market is beginning to anticipate right now.
Ironically, as I’ve predicted the past week, before the Federal Reserve eventually steps in to suppress yields, we may actually see another round of rate hikes first . If oil prices remain elevated and inflation expectations continue rising alongside Treasury yields, the Fed may feel forced to tighten policy again simply to preserve credibility and prevent inflation psychology from becoming entrenched. If that doesn’t work, I’ve predicted that the Fed will simply start bullshitting its inflation numbers .
In other words, the system may briefly attempt to defend the dollar before ultimately surrendering to debt realities. That creates the possibility of a brutal stagflationary environment where growth slows, markets weaken, borrowing costs rise, and inflation remains stubbornly elevated at the same time.
And that… is a nightmare scenario for risk assets and a near-impossible job for incoming Fed chair Kevin Warsh .
For years, markets became addicted to near-zero rates and endless liquidity. Entire sectors of the economy were built on the assumption that capital would remain permanently cheap. But when Treasury yields rise meaningfully, everything changes. Leveraged speculation becomes harder to sustain. Corporate refinancing becomes more expensive. Housing affordability deteriorates further. Commercial real estate faces additional stress. Equity valuations compress. The “everything bubble” suddenly starts losing oxygen and all the shit I’ve written about that I think will blow up — including all 10 area of the market I highlighted here — will implode.
And once again, the people who get hurt the most will not be the financial elite, it will be ordinary Americans. You heard it from the former bartender turned Substack shit-talker first…read this slowly:
Mom and pop savers are about to get squeezed from every direction at once. Their wages will fail to keep up with inflation. Their borrowing costs will rise. Their credit card rates will stay elevated. Their insurance, food, energy, and housing costs will continue climbing. Their retirement portfolios will become more volatile. And eventually, after enduring all of that pain, they will likely watch policymakers step in to rescue the bond market and financial system through another round of monetary intervention that further destroys the purchasing power of their savings.
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Every cycle ends the same way. Wall Street and the financial system are treated as too important to fail, while ordinary citizens absorb the consequences through inflation and currency debasement. Policymakers will present future interventions as necessary for “financial stability,” but stability for whom? Stability for leveraged institutions, overextended governments, and asset markets dependent on artificially suppressed rates.
Meanwhile, the average family gets punished twice. First through inflation, then through the policies used to contain the damage caused by inflation.
And make no mistake, if yields continue climbing, the Fed and Treasury will eventually intervene in some form. Maybe they will not officially call it yield curve control at first. Maybe it arrives through stealth quantitative easing, emergency liquidity facilities, Treasury buyback programs, bank regulatory changes, or coordinated purchases through the financial system. But the end result will be the same: suppress long-term yields because the debt burden has become too large for markets to absorb naturally.
At current debt levels, genuinely free market interest rates are politically and financially impossible. The bond market is beginning to expose that reality.
That is also why I am becoming bullish again on gold, silver, and mining stocks after stepping away from them earlier this year following their enormous run in 2025. If the Fed ultimately chooses to suppress yields while inflation remains structurally elevated, precious metals become one of the clearest beneficiaries. Gold and silver perform best when confidence in fiat systems deteriorates and when governments prioritize debt sustainability over currency stability. I’ve long said I think they will have a sharp fall lower on the initial deleveraging, then probably double off their near term bottom in short order once the Fed’s liquidity starts hitting the market.
And that is exactly the direction this appears to be heading.
The Iran war may end sooner than many expect, not because global leaders suddenly become responsible, but because the bond market is forcing them into a corner. Financial instability is becoming the greater threat. Policymakers now face an impossible balancing act between inflation, debt servicing costs, economic slowdown, and geopolitical conflict.
Something will have to give. Historically, when governments reach this stage, they choose to protect the debt market and sacrifice the currency.
There is little reason to believe this time will be any different.
--
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Tyler Durden
Thu, 05/21/2026 - 11:05 Close
Thu, 21 May 2026 14:45:00 +0000 Trump Posts Article Laying Out: "Here's How To Crush Tehran In Three Moves"
Trump Posts Article Laying Out: "Here's How To Crush Tehran In Three Moves"
President Trump on Thursday posted to Truth Social a New York Post article which was first published over two weeks ago, on May 1st, with the headl
Read more.....
Trump Posts Article Laying Out: "Here's How To Crush Tehran In Three Moves"
President Trump on Thursday posted to Truth Social a New York Post article which was first published over two weeks ago, on May 1st, with the headline "Here's how to crush Tehran in three moves ."
Trump's new social media post, issued without additional comment, comes just after news of Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei having drawn a hard line in the sand , ordering that Iran's stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% remain strictly inside Iranian territory . So now the world awaits what's next at a moment the White House has renewed threats of massive military strikes if Iran doesn't quickly come to the table and conform.
The NY Post article had straight-faced and without a hint of intended irony proclaimed: "President Trump has the upper hand." That statement was issued on day 63 of Trump's Iran war. Today is day 83 .
What did the interim look like as the world's most powerful military force has been unable to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, amid constant threats to take new, bigger military action - but which never actually materializes (at least not yet) no matter how many times the Iranians reject Washington's terms?
The below timeline and outline, stretching from last week into this one, basically illustrates the weekly Trump pattern that's been on display going back many weeks at this point :
Wed: Iran wants a deal. They called us
Thu: We are looking at proposals
Fri: We might be close. Very close
Sat: Iran knows what to do
Sun: OBLITERATION. TOTAL. COMPLETE. They have 24 hrs.
Mon: The storm is coming
Tue: I'm giving it more time
This is what 'winning' looks like according to the NY Post , apparently. The publication also feels itself in a position to give 'advice' and guidance to the White House on executing a war. "His best path forward is to pursue three lines of effort in parallel," author Richard Goldberg (of Foundation for Defense of Democracies) wrote. It must be remembered that very recently a former senior official from FDD Action, the think tank's lobbying arm, joined Trump's Iran negotiating team - his name is Nick Stewart.
Here are the three :
Sustain the blockade and accompanying economic warfare to destabilize the regime’s hold on the state;
Remake the world in America's energy dominance image to mitigate long-term price impacts while undermining China's global ambition to defeat the United States;
Order the US military to forge a path through the Strait of Hormuz to restore freedom of navigation on our terms not Tehran’s.
...if only simply ordering a military "path through" was that easy !
NurPhoto via Getty Images
"You might call the latter Operation Epic Passage — a combined naval and air mission of self-defense that offers escort to tankers and restores freedom of navigation, all while making clear to Tehran the devastating consequences of breaking cease-fire," Goldberg, who openly boasts of his close ties to the Israeli government, also wrote. He further offered the mission name of "Blockade Plus".
After the opening days and weeks of Operation Epic Fury, when it became clear that the large-scale US and Israeli bombardment would not produced regime change in Iran, pundits widely questioned whether the Trump White House actually had a plan , or long-term strategic vision for the military mission .
And now, after more than 80 days in, the public gets Trump posting a NY Post article by a hawkish FDD writer, which seems more focused merely on ways to mitigate the blowback and 'make the best' of a failed regime change operation , in the wake of the administration's constantly evolving stated goals.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 05/21/2026 - 10:45 Close
Thu, 21 May 2026 14:35:00 +0000 Iran's Drones, Defense Base Being Restored 'Faster Than Expected' Amid Extended Ceasefire: US Intelligence
Iran's Drones, Defense Base Being Restored 'Faster Than Expected' Amid Extended Ceasefire: US Intelligence
Summary
Reuters reported that Ayatollah ordered that stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% remain s
Read more.....
Iran's Drones, Defense Base Being Restored 'Faster Than Expected' Amid Extended Ceasefire: US Intelligence
Summary
Reuters reported that Ayatollah ordered that stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% remain strictly inside Iranian territory . Some Iranian officials then denied report to Al Jazeera.
WH says make a deal or else... "they can face a punishment from our military the likes of which has not been seen in modern history."
US Intelligence says Iran has reconstitute drone program, defense industrial base, "faster than expected" (CNN).
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?
Yes 51% · No 50%View full market & trade on Polymarket * * *
Drones, Military Industrial Base Being Rapidly Restored Amid Extended Ceasefire
The Iranians have reportedly rebuilt damaged and destroyed defense industrial sites much faster than expected. That's according to US intelligence assessments cited in CNN , and based on anonymous officials. The Pakistan-mediated talks have been stalled, and each of the last several weeks has seen Washington issue updated peace conditions, only for Tehran to in return counter-issue its own demands. And round and round the indirect negotiation has gone, yet with no breakthrough , or not so much as a step forward.
But perhaps this was all a tactic to simply prolong the ceasefire? It allowed for Iran to rearm and regroup, after the prior 38-days of US-Israeli bombing. "Iran has already restarted some of its drone production during the six-week ceasefire that began in early April, one sign it is rapidly rebuilding certain military capabilities degraded by US-Israeli strikes, according to two sources familiar with US intelligence assessments," CNN reports Thursday. "Four sources told CNN that US intelligence indicates Iran’s military is reconstituting much faster than initially estimated."
One US official cited in the report has gone so far as to say "The Iranians have exceeded all timelines the IC had for reconstitution." In the recent past, White House officials themselves have admitted that the Islamic Republic is probably reconstituting. Trump in the meantime keeps saying he's 'days' away from reordering strikes amid Tehran's intransigence. According to more on Iranian efforts to prepare for the next potential round of fighting :
The rebuilding of military capabilities, including replacing missile sites, launchers and production capacity for key weapons systems destroyed during the current conflict, means that Iran remains a significant threat to regional allies should President Donald Trump restart the bombing campaign , according to the four sources familiar with the intelligence. It also calls into question claims about the extent to which US-Israeli strikes have degraded Iran’s military in the long term.
While the time to restart production of different weapons components varies, some US intelligence estimates indicate Iran could fully reconstitute its drone attack capability in as soon as six months , one of the sources, a US official, told CNN.
Iranian Denials
Throughout the morning, and since the Reuters report was first issued, various unnamed Iranian officials are saying the Ayatollah gave no such order regarding taking enriched uranium removal off the table when it comes to potential negotiations. According to an Al Jazeera correspondent:
A senior Iranian official denied to me reports that Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei has issued a new order requiring enriched uranium to remain inside Iran, saying they are “propaganda by the enemies of the deal” The official added there are “no new order has been issued,” and that Tehran’s position has been consistent: Iran would downblend the material itself. “That is the subject of talks in the next stage,” the official said.
This will likely only fuel speculation of deep division within Iranian leadership ranks. Traditionally the IRGC reports directly to the Ayatollah, and is seen as the more hardline faction, ready to resist compromise and opt for a military response to US pressure.
Oil snaps lower on the denials... per Newsquawk:
In an immediate reaction, crude fell to the detriment of the USD and the benefit of equity and fixed benchmarks. Specifically:
• WTI Jul'26 fell from USD 102/bbl to USD 100.56/bbl.
• UST Jun'26 lifted from 109-00 to 109-04+.
• ES Jun'26 lifted from 7418 to 7433.
Ayatollah Orders Enriched Uranium To Say On Iranian Soil: RTRS
The illusion of a grand diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East is once again colliding with reality. The White House has been busy trying to paint a picture of a total capitulation by Tehran, which hasn't been demonstrated given its consistent position defying Washington's demands on the nuclear issue.
According to two senior Iranian officials speaking to Reuters , Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has drawn a hard line in the sand, ordering that Iran's stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% remain strictly inside Iranian territory .
Office of the Supreme Leader, via Reuters
Reuters underscores that "Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei's order could further frustrate U.S. President Donald Trump and complicate talks on ending the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran."
"Israeli officials have told Reuters that ?Trump has assured Israel that Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium , needed to make an atomic weapon, will be sent out of Iran and that any peace deal must include a clause on this," the report continues.
The officials noted that within Tehran, there is deep suspicion that the ceasefire is in fact "a tactical deception by the US," designed to lull Iran into a "false sense of security... before the fighting resumes."
The fresh directive from from the supreme leader flies directly in the face of the narrative being spun by Washington and Tel Aviv, given Israeli officials maintain that President Trump explicitly promised Israel that Iran's highly enriched stockpile would be completely removed from the country as part of any negotiated settlement.
Trump has also recently proclaimed this publicly, for example in a phone interview with CBS News last month, wherein he confidently proclaimed that Iran "agreed to everything" and would cooperate fully to ship its enriched uranium out of the country.
Extraction of nuclear material would of course rely heavily on the assumption of total Iranian compliance, given Trump has also lately appeared to rule out out a hostile invasion force, stating, "No. No troops."
There seems to be widespread agreement among national security officials at this point that some kind of special forces op to covertly go in and take it would be tantamount to a 'suicide mission'.
According to more of what Trump (prematurely) proclaimed in the prior CBS interview : "Our people, together with the Iranians, are going to work together to go get it. And then we'll take it to the United States."
The reality is all along the two sides' positions have been very far apart, and largely unbending:
And on a potential deal: "We'll be getting it together because by that time, we'll have an agreement and there's no need for fighting when there's an agreement. Nice right? That's better. We would have done it the other way if we had to" - he sought to explain.
At the moment, Iranian officials are reportedly reviewing the latest updated US proposals for peace, having reportedly asked Pakistan for time to assess and study the American points for negotiations."
However, Khamenei locking down the 60% enriched uranium inside Iranian borders, and amid suspicion that the US ceasefire offer is but a Trojan horse to get the Islamic Republic to simply given up its potential last line of defense, doesn't bode well for the chances of a breakthrough anytime soon.
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Yes 18% · No 83%View full market & trade on Polymarket For the latest warning from the White House, via Stephen Miller: "Iran has a choice to make: they can either agree to a piece of paper that is satisfactory to the United States, or they can face a punishment from our military the likes of which has not been seen in modern history . That's the choice they face" - he told Fox News.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 05/21/2026 - 10:35 Close
Thu, 21 May 2026 14:15:00 +0000 Trump EPA Targets Biden-Era Refrigerant Rules In Affordability Push
Trump EPA Targets Biden-Era Refrigerant Rules In Affordability Push
Trump EPA Targets Biden-Era Refrigerant Rules In Affordability Push
Watch Live
* * *
The Trump administration plans to delay compliance with Biden-era EPA regulations targeting hydrofluorocarbons later today. These regulations apply to refrigerants used in air conditioners, refrigerators, supermarket cooling systems, refrigerated trucks, cold storage, and some industrial applications.
Bloomberg reports that the EPA's 2023 Technology Transitions Rule, enacted under the American Innovation and Manufacturing Act, will be rolled back, with an estimated cost savings of more than $2.4 billion.
EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin said the Biden-era rules imposed costly and unrealistic requirements that exceeded the law.
Americans were right to be frustrated with the Biden-era refrigerant rules. They didn't protect human health or the environment and instead piled on costly, unattainable restrictions beyond what the law requires," Zeldin told the outlet in a statement.
Zeldin added, "Today, the Trump EPA is fulfilling President Trump's promise to lower costs and is fixing every problem we can under the authority Congress gave us."
President Trump and Zeldin are set to announce the rollback of Biden-era EPA regulations at a White House event later today. Zeldin's team is also preparing to propose additional rollbacks on hydrofluorocarbon regulations for refrigerated transport.
C-SPAN says Trump and Zeldin are set to announce the Oval Office at 11:00 ET.
The move here fits within Trump's broader deregulation agenda, which has focused on rolling back Biden-era environmental rules and lowering compliance costs for businesses to induce an economic boom.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 05/21/2026 - 10:15 Close
Thu, 21 May 2026 13:54:19 +0000 US PMIs Lead The World As Manufacturing Tops 4-Year Highs, Services Sink
US PMIs Lead The World As Manufacturing Tops 4-Year Highs, Services Sink
Following Japan's ugly PMIs (Services lowest since March 2025) and Europe's disaster (weakest composite EU PMI since late 20
Read more.....
US PMIs Lead The World As Manufacturing Tops 4-Year Highs, Services Sink
Following Japan's ugly PMIs (Services lowest since March 2025) and Europe's disaster (weakest composite EU PMI since late 2023)...
...with prices surging ...
All eyes are on the US 'soft' survey data for signs of divergence (or contagion).
With US 'hard' data improving notably, the preliminary soft survey data for May was mixed with improved performance in manufacturing was countered by a sluggish service sector .
Source: Bloomberg
“The damaging economic impact from the war in the Middle East is becoming increasingly evident in the business surveys," according to Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence :
"The ‘flash’ PMI data for May recorded only modest growth of business activity as demand was again squeezed by a further spike in prices and jobs were cut as firms worried over rising costs and the economic outlook.
Coming on the heels of a subdued April reading, the May PMI indicates that the economy will struggle to manage annualized GDP growth of much more than 1% in the second quarter ...
However, Williamson notes that even this subdued pace of growth may not last .
"On average, over the past three months order book growth has slowed to its weakest for two years, and a boost from precautionary stock building due to concerns over further price hikes and supply delays will not last forever.
Demand also looks set to cool further in response to rising prices.
"Firms’ costs have jumped higher at a pace not seen since the energy price shock of 2022 and are being passed on to customers in the form of sharply higher selling prices. The survey price gauges therefore indicate that inflation looks set to rise further just as the economy cools.”
Finally, while the composite numbers are not that encouraging, on a relative basis, US looks dominant...
Maybe trump was right about the impact of the war on everyone else? (Just don't tell anyone who drives!)
Tyler Durden
Thu, 05/21/2026 - 09:54 Close