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Mon, 06 Jul 2026 16:25:00 +0000 Xbox Hit With 3,000 Layoffs After CEO Warns Business Is "Not Healthy"
Xbox Hit With 3,000 Layoffs After CEO Warns Business Is "Not Healthy"
Xbox CEO Asha Sharma issued a dire warning to staff on Monday: "Our business today is not healthy. We must reset Xbox."
Read more.....
Xbox Hit With 3,000 Layoffs After CEO Warns Business Is "Not Healthy"
Xbox CEO Asha Sharma issued a dire warning to staff on Monday: "Our business today is not healthy. We must reset Xbox."
Sharma's memo, first published on the Xbox website, announced cuts of 3,200 jobs tied to Microsoft's Xbox division, or equal to about 20% of staff, as deteriorating margins and disappointing Game Pass subscriptions have forced the unit into a major restructuring effort.
The 3,200-job reduction will be split into two waves: the first 1,600 layoffs will begin this week, with another 1,600 occurring over the rest of the fiscal year, according to the memo.
Last month, Sharma told employees in another memo that Xbox's "accountability margin," the metric Microsoft uses to reflect profit margin, had slipped to 3% and that annual revenue had tumbled to alarmingly low levels. "Going forward, this cannot continue," she wrote then.
The CEO said:
After careful consideration, I've made the difficult decision to reduce our team by approximately 3,200 throughout FY27. This will include approximately 1,600 role eliminations today, and in addition, four studios will leave XBOX to new management. I recognize that a year-long restructuring creates additional challenges. Unfortunately, it is not possible to make all the necessary changes in a single day, and I wanted to be direct about the scale.
. . .
Our business today is not healthy. We are operating on margins that are 3-10x lower than those of comparable platform and publishing businesses. We entered Gen 9 with a smaller install base and a higher cost structure. To grow, we bet on Game Pass, multi-platform, and a broader portfolio of content. While those businesses have created meaningful value, they did not grow at the pace we expected. As that happened, our core business weakened, and we added more teams, more investment, and more time, hoping for a better outcome. And now the industry is facing the most severe hardware crisis in its history. We must reset XBOX.
She provided color on restructuring across Xbox's content portfolio:
Since 2018, we have aggressively expanded our studio portfolio while the number of games created each month across the industry now outpaces the last ten years combined. We now find ourselves competing not only with the largest publishers, but also with smaller independent studios. It is neither possible nor desirable to own every great independent studio. We have also learned that we are not the best home for every type of studio; in a typical year, we lost 64 cents for every dollar we invested. As we reset XBOX, we will help independent creators succeed by providing open development tools and audiences to realize their vision.
Compulsion Games and Double Fine Productions will return to management and transition to independent studios with their IP, catalog, and runway for their next games. Ninja Theory and Undead Labs have entered terms to join new ownership with funding to complete and grow Senua and State of Decay 3. In France, Arkane's management is beginning required consultation with its Works Council to review potential strategic options.
We are also making reductions across other units, and in some cases, shifting investment to focus on higher priority projects. These changes vary in size across Activision, Bethesda/ZeniMax, Blizzard, King, Mojang, and XBOX Game Studios. None of our first party publicly announced games or projects are being cancelled as part of these reductions.
In addition, Mojang and King will now report directly to me. These two studios have increasingly become platforms and are our largest by monthly active players. They bring critical geographic, demographic, and differentiation to XBOX.
The changes at Xbox come as the broader video game industry remains stuck in a post-pandemic slump. Compounding the pressure is the memory-chip squeeze , fueled by AI data-center demand, which has pushed console production costs higher and forced both Xbox and PlayStation prices to climb .
The release of GTA VI, now about 135 days away, cannot come soon enough. WallStreet analysts expect the blockbuster launch to drive a new wave of console demand and potentially produce some tailwinds for the struggling gaming industry.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 07/06/2026 - 12:25 Close
Mon, 06 Jul 2026 16:05:00 +0000 New Jersey Lawmakers Pass Bill To Establish Large Load Data Center Tariff
New Jersey Lawmakers Pass Bill To Establish Large Load Data Center Tariff
By Zachary Skidmore of DataCenterDynamics
New Jersey lawmakers have passed a bi
Read more.....
New Jersey Lawmakers Pass Bill To Establish Large Load Data Center Tariff
By Zachary Skidmore of DataCenterDynamics
New Jersey lawmakers have passed a bill that will direct the state's Board of Public Utilities (PUC) to establish a dedicated data center tariff for facilities with a capacity of 50MW or more, in an attempt to shield other ratepayers from cost increases tied to new builds.
A similar bill was originally proposed in June of last year by Democratic assemblymen Dave Bailey and Joe Danielsen. However, that initial bill was pocket-vetoed by then-governor Phil Murphy, who did not sign it before his term ended.
CoreSite’s NY3 data center is located in Secaucus and offers more than 138,000 square feet of capacity.CoreSite
Following the veto, the bill was replaced with S731, which proposed broader protections than the previous bill. It will now head to Democratic governor Mikie Sherrill for final approval. Assemblyman David Bailey Jr. said Sherrill's office was involved in drafting the latest version and expressed optimism she would sign it.
The new bill is broader than the previously vetoed bill, applying to both existing and new facilities, and lowering the threshold from 100MW . It also aggregates facilities that are under common ownership or on contiguous sites, treating them as a single large data center for purposes of the threshold.
Other provisions in the bill include requiring data centers to demonstrate their project is not proposed elsewhere to avoid speculative applications, providing financial guarantees to take or pay for at least 85 percent of the requested service for ten years, and committing to demand response and flexibility programs. In addition, the bill mandates that large data center customers be curtailed before residential customers during grid emergencies.
It will also require the PUC to prioritize interconnection for data centers that make binding commitments to bring their own clean generation or storage.
The bill is the latest to be passed within a state legislature, with several already enshrined in law, and many others currently making their way through the approval process.
Last month, regulators in Oregon approved a new rate class for data centers and other large loads, which is now in effect.
Before this, Oklahoma’s governor, Kevin Stitt, signed into law a new bill aimed at protecting ratepayers in the state from rising utility and infrastructure costs associated with data centers. This closely followed Florida, whose governor signed into law a similar bill that prohibited utilities from passing data center infrastructure costs on to residential and small-business ratepayers and required large-scale users to bear their full cost of service.
Other states to see similar rules proposed and passed include Ohio , North Carolina , and Virginia , to name a few.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 07/06/2026 - 12:05 Close
Mon, 06 Jul 2026 15:25:00 +0000 Truck Driver Accused Of Using Fake Documents To Steal $2.9 Million Cargo
Truck Driver Accused Of Using Fake Documents To Steal $2.9 Million Cargo
Truck Driver Accused Of Using Fake Documents To Steal $2.9 Million Cargo
By Phil Bring of FreightWaves
Police in Greenfield, Indiana, arrested a California truck driver after officers recovered nearly $2.9 million worth of tungsten oxide powder that police said thieves stole during a cargo theft in Pennsylvania.
According to a June 28 news release from the Greenfield Police Department , officers received an alert around 6 a.m. Saturday regarding a wanted semi tractor-trailer traveling eastbound on Interstate 70 into Hancock County. Police said the truck was connected to a cargo theft that occurred in Pennsylvania on June 25. Officers located the truck and trailer just west of the Greenfield exit at mile marker 104, confirmed the information and conducted a traffic stop.
Police identified the driver as 31-year-old Deepak Kumar of Fresno, California. Authorities said Kumar used fraudulent documents to obtain a load of nearly 40,000 pounds of tungsten oxide powder . Police valued the shipment at $2,857,500 and said it was headed to Mitsubishi Materials Corporation in Japan.
Deepak Kumar, 31, of Fresno, California, was arrested June 27 after Greenfield police recovered a shipment of tungsten oxide powder valued at about $2.9 million. Police said Kumar faces theft-related charges in Pennsylvania. Source: Greenfield Police Department
Greenfield police arrested Kumar at the scene on an active arrest warrant issued by the state of Pennsylvania. According to police, the warrant charges Kumar with theft by unlawful taking of movable property and criminal use of a communication facility.
Officers transported Kumar to the Hancock County Jail following the arrest. Police said the Hancock County Prosecutor’s Office will determine whether Kumar will face criminal charges in Indiana related to the traffic stop and evidence recovered during the subsequent search warrant.
Police said officers impounded the truck and trailer through Inman’s Towing of Greenfield following the traffic stop. Investigators held both as evidence while they requested a search warrant. After a judge issued the warrant, officers searched the trailer and confirmed it contained the reported stolen cargo.
According to police, a representative of Mitsubishi Materials Corporation traveled to Greenfield on Sunday and took possession of the recovered shipment.
The Greenfield Police Department has not identified the Pennsylvania business where investigators allege the cargo theft occurred. Authorities also have not released additional information describing the fraudulent documents investigators said Kumar used to obtain the cargo.
Police have not identified additional suspects or released court documents describing the alleged cargo theft. The department said the Hancock County Prosecutor’s Office will determine whether Kumar will face additional criminal charges in Indiana related to the traffic stop and the evidence recovered during the search warrant.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 07/06/2026 - 11:25 Close
Mon, 06 Jul 2026 15:10:00 +0000 Saudi Arabia Sells Oil At A Discount For The First Time Since COVID Crash, As China Demand Collapses
Saudi Arabia Sells Oil At A Discount For The First Time Since COVID Crash, As China Demand Collapses
We previously discussed the unprecedented collapse observed in recent months in Chinese oil demand and imports, which led to the bi
Read more.....
Saudi Arabia Sells Oil At A Discount For The First Time Since COVID Crash, As China Demand Collapses
We previously discussed the unprecedented collapse observed in recent months in Chinese oil demand and imports, which led to the bizarre scenario where even Iran can't find buyers (read China) for its temporarily unsanctioned oil armada (see "Iran Runs Into Big Problem: No Buyers For Its Oil, As Full Tankers Pile Up Off China " ) and which prompted even JPM to point out that something bigger is going on behind the scenes.
Understandably, with such a huge source of demand sidelined, today Bloomberg reported that Saudi Arabia has made big reductions to its main crude oil prices for buyers in Asia, selling barrels at a discount for the first time since it embarked on a price war in 2020, as a surge of global supply heightens competition to find buyers.
State producer Saudi Aramco will lower Arab Light oil for next month by $11 a barrel to a $1.50 discount over the regional benchmark, according to a price list seen by Bloomberg. The last two times it sold the grade at a discount were during price wars in 2020 and 2015.
The large drop in prices, the biggest in at least 26 years, follows a surge at the height of the Iran war when the disruption to the Strait of Hormuz restricted the kingdom’s flows; it is also bigger than the $8 decline expected in a Bloomberg survey.
The surprise price cut underscores the surging volumes of oil that are now available on global markets, as the interim US-Iran peace deal enables Gulf producers to ramp up exports at the same time as a flood of trapped barrels escape through the Strait of Hormuz. The size of the cutback also raises questions whether other Middle East producers might be forced into steeper cuts to their prices as they compete for customers (mostly China, as India is quite happy importing cheap Russian oil) that are inundated with supply.
Aramco’s August prices are for buyers who purchase crude on long-term contracts, the main way in which the kingdom markets its barrels. Some traders who spoke to Bloomberg said even with such a large reduction, the barrels are more expensive than spot supplies from other regional producers that are available for immediate purchase on an adhoc basis.
According to Bloomberg, official prices from other producers in the region are expected to be released in the coming days.
Oil has plunged since the agreement between US and Iran came into effect in the middle of June, allowing traffic to resume through the Strait of Hormuz, the key chokepoint that had been largely blocked since the start of hostilities. Brent crude has given up all its wartime gains, and was trading below $72 a barrel on Tuesday.
Before the war, Saudi Arabia loaded most of its crude from within the Persian Gulf. However, Aramco diverted a chunk of those flows to its Red Sea facility at Yanbu as the war effectively blocked Hormuz. The kingdom made the rare move of selling some cargoes on a so-called spot basis in recent days , as it got resumed flows of shipments that had been trapped inside the Persian Gulf.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 07/06/2026 - 11:10 Close
Mon, 06 Jul 2026 14:35:00 +0000 'Restraining Order Needed': Trump Again Taunts Italy's Meloni, Ahead Of NATO Summit
'Restraining Order Needed': Trump Again Taunts Italy's Meloni, Ahead Of NATO Summit
There's no time like the eve of the major annual NATO summit for Trump to reignite his longstanding feud with Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni,
Read more.....
'Restraining Order Needed': Trump Again Taunts Italy's Meloni, Ahead Of NATO Summit
There's no time like the eve of the major annual NATO summit for Trump to reignite his longstanding feud with Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni, apparently. The American President blasted out the below Truth Social just before heading to Ankara, Turkey for the gathering of NATO heads...
The doctored image featuring the caption "Restraining order needed" marks but the latest escalation between to the two leaders. Meloni has not responded or commented directly regarding the Truth Social Post, and is unlikely to given that Italy likely wants to avoid escalation.
"People come and go but relations must endure," Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto remarked on the prime minister still being in Trump's crosshairs to news channel Sky TG24. And Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani tried to brush it off while presenting an optimistic picture of future relations, saying he was "sure that transatlantic relations go well beyond individual comments."
This new post follows on another Truth Social post from June, in which Trump accused the Italian PM of asking for a picture with him "over and over" at the G7 Summit in France.
At heart of the feud is Italy's breaking with Trump over his Iran operation . This has included denying shared base usage for American military flights connected with Operation Epic Fury.
Trump had claimed earlier in the summer of Meloni, "She is doing poorly in Italy with her level of popularity, possibly because she turned down the United States of America, a Country that truly loves and protects Italy, when it came to denying Iran from obtaining or developing a Nuclear Weapon."
He then suggested that Meloni wanted to be "friends again" to get her "numbers up" - but has appeared to stipulate that she must fully open up Italian bases for US aircraft usage once again.
Meloni in response to the prior June post slammed the US president for his "senseless" and "constant, unprovoked attacks" .
via Anadolu Agency
"As for my popularity, being your friend has certainly not helped it, nor does it depend on my relationship with you," she shot back. "My popularity is none of your concern. I suggest you focus on yours."
All of this could serve to make any close-quarter contact at the NATO summit in Ankara very awkward - also as the two will certainly be in the same general vicinity for events like the group photo.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 07/06/2026 - 10:35 Close
Mon, 06 Jul 2026 14:10:08 +0000 US Services Surveys Show Continued Expansion In June: Jobs Up, Inflation Down
US Services Surveys Show Continued Expansion In June: Jobs Up, Inflation Down
Following US manufacturing small dip in June (though still expanding), the US Services sector PMI surveys are a little more mixed but both still solidly i
Read more.....
US Services Surveys Show Continued Expansion In June: Jobs Up, Inflation Down
Following US manufacturing small dip in June (though still expanding), the US Services sector PMI surveys are a little more mixed but both still solidly in expansion in June:
“A slight acceleration of business growth in the services economy takes the expansion to the strongest since the outbreak of the war in the Middle East," says Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence , "though the pace of growth remains lacklustre compared to that seen at the start of the year before the conflict."
The survey data are hence broadly indicative of the economy only growing at a 1.2% annualized rate over the second quarter...
Similarly, while business growth expectations for the year ahead improved in June, they remained subdued compared to that seen prior to the war as businesses lack clarity over the outlook , both from economic and geopolitical contexts.
Here's what ISM Respondents are saying...
“We continue to experience higher prices due to the Persian Gulf conflict through rising diesel fuel costs and increased input costs for resin-based packaging . The brunt of the impact will be experienced in the third quarter (Q3) of 2026, but we are feeling the impact now. Suppliers are aggressively attempting to pass through price increases.” [Accommodation & Food Services]
“Extreme drought in Virginia is creating financial problems for farmers and the agricultural industry . Dramatically reduced spring crops harvest has created significant cost increases in feed expense. The barley grain crop was nearly totally lost due to the early hot weather and spring freeze. High fertilizer cost increases due to the war in Iran and increased freight cost has driven cost for crops above breakeven levels on many farms. Many dairy farmers are struggling with crop shortages, high input cost and below milk price breakeven. The financial stress from higher cost due to the Iran war and drought-related forage losses has resulted in decreased spending in the agricultural sector .” [Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting]
“In general, our company (commercial construction) is doing well . Pipeline is healthy for current and future work. Material pricing is higher and lead times on certain components in support of data center piping is elongating.” [Construction]
“In addition to the known semiconductor manufacturing issue, now there are concerns regarding memory availability that is materially impacting our OEM’s purchasing patterns, which is affecting availability and driving my company’s purchasing decisions , including how much longer we are sweating our assets, how frequently we refresh, and how we approach maintenance contracts.” [Finance & Insurance]
“Despite economic headwinds like persistent inflation, patient volumes and overall business activity remain strong reflected mainly by outstanding revenue performance . Supply chains remain resilient as well; back orders are at a historical low, and few if any critical products are experiencing difficulties. Labor is steady, as we continue to add full-time workers while the forecast remains positive . Given the continuation of the conflict in the Middle East, we are beginning to hear that cost of goods increases are on the horizon but have yet to materialize. Cost increases are in focus for the next quarter.” [Health Care & Social Assistance]
“From a strategic supply chain perspective, we are seeing increased complexity in managing total landed cost due to tariffs, import/export constraints and duty recovery mechanisms, requiring more proactive coordination across sourcing, logistics and compliance teams. Recent discussions internally also highlight the impact of tariff programs and duty drawback evaluations on purchasing strategies.” [Mining]
“Demand remains strong in infrastructure, environmental, and resilience projects, while procurement faces persistent labor inflation, supplier capacity constraints, and regulatory complexity —particularly in California and other high-cost markets . Labor-driven categories remain elevated despite easing goods inflation. The impact is higher rates, longer lead times, and increased importance of capacity assurance vs. lowest-cost sourcing.” [Professional, Scientific & Technical Services]
“Business has been very strong during what is usually a less active time of the year . Pricing is stable, and employment just where we want it to be. Supply chain strong with no challenges.” [Retail Trade]
“The utility industry continues to experience extended lead times, supply-chain constraints, material shortages, and pricing volatility. As a result, suppliers are often limiting quotation validity periods, with many RFQs carrying expiration dates as short as 24 hours . These conditions require timely evaluation and procurement decisions to mitigate the risk of price changes and availability issues.” [Utilities]
“We are experiencing continued sequential top-line growth driven mostly by increased prices.” [Wholesale Trade]
“In addition to the known semiconductor manufacturing issue, now there are concerns regarding memory availability that is materially impacting our OEM’s purchasing patterns, which is affecting availability and driving my company’s purchasing decisions , including how much longer we are sweating our assets, how frequently we refresh, and how we approach maintenance contracts.” [Finance & Insurance]
Williamson notes that the prospect of higher interest rates also acted as a further headwind to growth, notably in the financial service sector, where business expectations remain especially muted, adding that “a key underlying factor behind the relatively subdued performance of the services economy was again elevated price pressures."
Although easing slightly, aided largely by lower oil prices, costs continued to rise at a steep rate in June, driving up rates levied for services.
Customer push-back against these high prices was again widely reported, most notably in consumer-facing businesses.
But Williamson concludes that "consumer-facing companies are nevertheless reporting that further price falls should help stimulate sales in the months ahead, providing a ray of hope for both the growth and inflation outlooks.”
Tyler Durden
Mon, 07/06/2026 - 10:10 Close
Mon, 06 Jul 2026 13:45:00 +0000 Key Events This Week: ISM, FOMC Minutes And Fed Speakers
Key Events This Week: ISM, FOMC Minutes And Fed Speakers
The week after payrolls is usually a quieter affair but there's plenty of global events even if the US calendar is light.
In terms of the main highlights, give
Read more.....
Key Events This Week: ISM, FOMC Minutes And Fed Speakers
The week after payrolls is usually a quieter affair but there's plenty of global events even if the US calendar is light.
In terms of the main highlights, given the current focus on monetary policy the FOMC minutes (Wednesday) and the ECB’s June meeting account (Thursday) will be carefully watched, especially the former given it was the first of the new Warsh regime. Speeches from Fed Governors Waller (Monday), Williams and Logan (Thursday) will provide a more "live" update to the committees' thinking. Elsewhere, China inflation data (Thursday) and a run of German activity indicators including factory orders (today), industrial production (tomorrow) and trade (Thursday) are worth tracking. German reforms in recent weeks have offered some renewed optimism that we will finally see the benefits of the huge fiscal spending and reform agenda after skepticism had been building. Geopolitically, the NATO summit (Tuesday–Wednesday) will also be in focus, with Trump in attendance, and could generate plenty of headlines.
In terms of other data and events, today sees ISM services (Monday) which follows the recent weakness in manufacturing , where DB economists expect a modest improvement. Most of the other data in the US is second tier but includes existing home sales on Thursday. Outside of the US, the BoE’s financial stability report (tomorrow) will be interesting, while inflation prints from Sweden (Wednesday) and Denmark and Norway (Friday) deserve a glance . In Japan, the data flow includes labor cash earnings and household spending (tomorrow), the Economy Watchers survey (Wednesday) and PPI (Friday). Elsewhere, we will see the RBNZ policy decision (Wednesday ), where economists expect a rate hike, and Canada’s labor market report (Friday).
Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events
Monday July 6
Data: US June ISM services, UK June new car registrations, construction PMI, Germany May factory orders, June construction PMI, Eurozone May PPI, retail sales, Canada June services PMI
Central banks: Fed’s Waller speaks, ECB's Schnabel, Wunsch and Lane speak, BoE’s Mann speaks, BoC business outlook
Tuesday July 7
Data: US May trade balance, China June foreign reserves, Japan May labor cash earnings, household spending, leading index, coincident index, Germany May industrial production, France May trade balance, Canada May international merchandise trade
Central banks: ECB's Panetta and Kocher speak, BoE’s financial stability report
Auctions: US 3-yr Notes ($58bn)
Other: NATO summit (through July 8), French Court ruling on Marine Le Pen’s eligibility to run for President
Wednesday July 8
Data : US May wholesale trade sales, consumer credit, Japan May BoP current account balance, BoP trade balance, June bank lending, Economy Watchers survey, France May current account balance, Sweden June CPI, May GDP indicator
Central banks: FOMC minutes, ECB's Kocher, Moulin, Nagel and Dolenc speak, RBNZ decision
Auctions: US 10-yr Notes (reopening, $39bn)
Thursday July 9
Data : US June existing home sales, initial jobless claims, China June CPI, PPI, UK June RICS house price balance, Japan June M2, M3, machine tool orders, Germany May trade balance
Central banks : ECB’s account of the June meeting, Fed's Williams and Logan speak, BoE’s Breeden speaks
Earnings : PepsiCo
Auctions : US 30-yr Bond (reopening, $22bn)
Friday July 10
Data : Japan June PPI, Italy May industrial production, Canada June labour force survey, May building permits, Denmark June CPI, Norway June CPI
Central banks : ECB’s Vujcic and Stournaras speak
Earnings : Delta Air Lines
Looking at the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data release this week is the ISM services index on Monday. There are a few speaking engagements with Fed officials this week, including events with Governor Waller and Presidents Williams and Logan. The minutes to the FOMC’s June meeting will be released on Wednesday.
Monday, July 6
09:45 AM S&P Global US services PMI, June final (consensus 51.3, last 51.3)
10:00 AM ISM services index, June (GS 54.0, consensus 54.0, last 54.5): We estimate that the ISM services index declined to 54.0 in June. Our non-manufacturing survey tracker was unchanged in June but remained below the latest ISM services reading at 52.9.
11:00 AM Fed Governor Waller speaks: Fed Governor Christopher Waller will take part in a policy panel at a conference in Rome. On May 22, Waller said that while he did not think the FOMC should hike “in the near future,” he could “no longer rule out rate hikes further down the road if inflation does not abate soon,” especially if inflation expectations showed “signs of becoming unanchored.” At the same time, Waller said there would need to be “improvement on inflation or a significant deterioration in the labor market” for him to support cuts.
Tuesday, July 7
08:30 AM Trade balance, May (GS -$78.5bn, consensus -$78.8bn, last -$55.9bn)
Wednesday, July 8
10:00 AM Wholesale inventories, May final (last +0.3%)
02:00 PM FOMC meeting minutes, June 16-17 meeting: The FOMC left the funds rate unchanged at 3.5-3.75% and removed the previous forward guidance suggesting cuts from its statement at the June FOMC meeting. But the meeting delivered a hawkish surprise, with nine participants projecting a hike in 2026 (vs. our expectation of three). That said, we suspect that FOMC participants treated the news about a deal with Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz—which emerged only a few days before the meeting—cautiously. Chairman Warsh also noted earlier this week that “inflation expectations have come down, and inflation risks have come down” at a panel discussion in Sintra, Portugal. We will look for details in the minutes on the assumptions underlying participants’ economic outlook and views of the balance of risks at the time.
Thursday, July 9
08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended July 3 (GS 225k, consensus 220k, last 215k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended June 27 (consensus 1,815k, last 1,814k)
09:00 AM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will take part in a moderated discussion at a conference on market liquidity and functioning hosted by the New York Fed and The Clark Center for Global Markets at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. On June 25, Williams said that the current stance of monetary policy was “well positioned” to restore inflation to the Fed’s 2% target. Williams said he expected inflation to “edge down” as tariff effects faded, supply disruptions from the Middle East got resolved, and slow rent growth translated into a lower pace of shelter inflation. He noted that medium-term inflation expectations “have remained well anchored through May.”
10:00 AM Existing home sales, June (GS +2.5%, consensus +0.7%, last +3.2%)
01:30 PM Dallas Fed President Logan (FOMC voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will moderate a panel on market liquidity at a conference hosted by the New York Fed and The Clark Center for Global Markets at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. On June 3, Logan noted that “inflation appears to be trending toward the mid 2’s—not all the way back to 2 percent” and that “above-target inflation can become entrenched if it persists too long.” At the same time, Logan said economic activity “remains strong,” financial conditions are “accommodative,” and the labor market “appears stable and broadly balanced.” Logan stressed she was “increasingly concerned that higher interest rates could be necessary later this year to fully restore price stability and appropriately balance both sides of the Fed’s dual mandate.”
Friday, July 10
There are no major economic data releases scheduled.
Source: DB, GS, Barc
Tyler Durden
Mon, 07/06/2026 - 09:45 Close
Mon, 06 Jul 2026 13:30:00 +0000 Russia & Ukraine Trade Some Of Biggest Strikes Of War On Eve Of NATO Summit
Russia & Ukraine Trade Some Of Biggest Strikes Of War On Eve Of NATO Summit
Russia has unleashed another massive drone and missile attack wave on Ukraine's capital, just on the eve of the major annual NATO summit, which is in Ankara
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Russia & Ukraine Trade Some Of Biggest Strikes Of War On Eve Of NATO Summit
Russia has unleashed another massive drone and missile attack wave on Ukraine's capital, just on the eve of the major annual NATO summit, which is in Ankara, Turkey this week.
Over a dozen people were killed, with heavy damage against residential structures observed. The death toll could rise, but "In total, 14 people have died and 117 have been injured in Kyiv ," the office of the attorney general said on Monday morning. Rescue crews have been retrieving bodies from under rubble throughout Monday.
via Associated Press
The Russian Defense ?Ministry announced that it used long-range weapons ?and drones to carry out a "massive" attack on ?Kiev and other cities, saying that military bases and energy facilities were successfully struck.
According to details of the timing of the attack wave :
The Kyiv Independent reported that the first explosions were heard at about 1:40am local time, followed by more strikes at 2:10am and 3:15am.
Thousands of residents fled to underground shelters, it reported, as air raid sirens sounded across Ukraine. At least 15 buildings were damaged in Kyiv in the strikes, including four in the capital’s historic Podilskyi district, Tkachenko said.
As for the significant numbers of projectiles focused on the Ukrainian capital alone, another source reports :
Ukraine's air force said Russia used 68 missiles, including 23 ballistic and six super and hypersonic missiles, as well as 351 drones in the attack . Air force units shot down or neutralized 37 missiles and 326 drones, but none of the ballistic missiles or super and hypersonic missiles, the air force data showed.
Neighboring Poland briefly scrambled fighter ?jets as a preventive measure.
Rumors of warehouse with depleted uranium having been struck ...
Rumors persist...
But Ukraine has been launching its own significant drone salvos against Russia, with devastating effect against its energy infrastructure.
In its second large-scale attack in under a week, drones were sent against an oil terminal and port in St. Petersburg, with damage being observed in the Baltic Sea ports of Vysotsk and Ust-Luga. More attacks also impacted Sevastopol on the Black Sea, resulting in a power blackout there.
According to some further details in CBNC being reported :
Ukrainian officials reported that forces struck a major oil terminal in Russia’s second-largest city, St. Petersburg, as well as the Kronstadt Naval Base , the main base of the Russian Baltic Fleet, on Friday and Saturday. The attacks reportedly caused fires at both the oil terminal and the military facility.
Further Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure were reported on Monday morning. Ukraine’s military said via Telegram that it had struck oil refineries in Russia’s Yaroslavl and Leningrad regions overnight . CNBC couldn’t independently verify the report.
It was only on Saturday that President Trump said he had a "business-like and constructive" nearly 90-minute phone call with his Russian counterpart Putin.
The prospect of renewed US mediation efforts to find peace in the Ukraine conflict was discussed, and Trump was even (once again) invited to visit Russia for an in-person summit.
While the prospect of renewed talks and diplomatic effort was raised, the two warring sides seem further from dialogue than ever, and the Zelensky government is finally sensing that it has found a 'weak point' - hammering Russian energy and creating a national fuel shortage crisis.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 07/06/2026 - 09:30 Close
Mon, 06 Jul 2026 13:15:00 +0000 When A Toll Isn't A Toll
When A Toll Isn't A Toll
By Benjamin Picton, senior market strategist at Rabobank
When A Toll Isn't A Toll
Yields on 10-year Treasuries finished last week up 11bps to 4.48% while yields on 10-year Bunds ro
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When A Toll Isn't A Toll
By Benjamin Picton, senior market strategist at Rabobank
When A Toll Isn't A Toll
Yields on 10-year Treasuries finished last week up 11bps to 4.48% while yields on 10-year Bunds rose 8.5bps to 2.93%. Those higher borrowing costs came despite signs of weakening in the US jobs market, a weaker-than-expected prices paid figure on the ISM manufacturing index, and a surprisingly weak Eurozone CPI inflation report that follows in the wake of lower than expected inflation readings in the UK.
Market-based expectations of the future path of the Fed Funds rate finished the week a little lower than it started, with pricing of a future rate hike pushed out from October to December . 2-year Treasury yields fell by almost 4bps on Thursday after the payrolls report confirmed hiring in June was little better than half the expected figure.
This was still enough for the unemployment rate to tick down to 4.2% as a lower participation rate saw the labor force contract. Nevertheless, 2-year yields were higher across the week as sovereign curves bear-steepened.
Brent crude posted its first weekly gain in almost a month last week to see the front contract close up 0.18% at $72.12/bbl. The gains appear to have been short-lived as news of continued tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz and a decision by OPEC+ over the weekend to ease production restrictions by 188,000 barrels/day from August steer the price action lower this morning . Announcements of increased production are all well and good, but when much of that production is occurring in the Persian Gulf or in Russia (where Ukrainian strikes against oil infrastructure are ongoing) the ability to actually ship the product to market will remain the critical limiting factor.
On that note, official figures show that Hormuz traffic is back to approximately 30% of pre-war levels, though this likely understates the true picture as many vessels are transiting dark (i.e. without their tracking systems on) to avoid the attentions of Iran’s IRGC. Bloomberg reports that six vessels transited the route closest to the Omani coastline under US auspices on Sunday without incident . That follows reports of up to eight vessels performing u-turns (with some later being redirected through the Iranian route) after attempting to transit close to Oman on Friday and Saturday.
Updated data from Kpler and Vortexa shows that crude exports from the UAE surged in June to exceed pre-war levels and approach record highs. The UAE’s recent decision to leave OPEC and OPEC+ is considered bearish over the longer term for energy prices as a diminished share of potential production is subject to non-market constraints.
On the other hand, Iran again indicated over the weekend that it will be instituting “service fees” on vessels transiting Hormuz through its territorial waters once the 60-day negotiating period kicked-off by the signing of the Iran-US memorandum of understanding expires . According to Iran’s ambassador to China a new fee regime is being designed in consultation with Oman and will include “special considerations” for China and other friendly nations in determining the level and type of fee applied. According to the ambassador, this is not a toll. This might prove be a convenient fiction for all parties given President Trump’s unyielding view that a permanent toll regime would not be acceptable after the 60-day negotiating period expires.
Critically, what this little titbit sets up is exactly the type of scenario we have been pointing towards for some time: the ‘oil market’ splitting into ‘oil markets’ with terms over pricing and access being determined by which geopolitical camp you happen to sit in, and a series of quid pro quos informing the deal that each party gets.
The prime movers here are the United States and China, with Iran having clearly chosen China and the UAE hitching its wagon to the US of A . An easy tell that this scenario is playing out will be pressure from Iran to have other Gulf producers accept a toll that isn’t a toll, and/or have their cargoes priced in CNY rather than USD . The USA, similarly, will pressure Gulf allies to price in Dollars and normalize relations with Israel to expand the Abraham Accords and have oil flow from east to west to cut out Iran entirely and demonstrate to China that Uncle Sam can step on the hose whenever he likes.
Europe and the balance of Asia are likely to be reduced to the role of spectators in these affairs. Highlighting the weakness of Europe’s current position in the Great Game, the Wall Street Journal carried a story last week on how the German Mittelstand is being decimated by state-backed Chinese competition , with the most energy-exposed sectors of the manufacturing economy faring particularly badly.
To a certain extent, the hollowing out of German industry at the hands of China mirrors the hollowing-out of British finance at the hands of the United States as more and more firms choose to list in New York in pursuit of higher multiples or are bought-up as value picks . This has elicited a response from the British Government in the form of the Mansion House compact aimed at encouraging pension funds to hold more British assets. If that fails, will the discussion then turn to capital controls under an Andy Burnham premiership?
Similarly, the rapid decline of the German Mittelstand will almost certainly elicit further protectionist measures from officials in Brussels who have just spent the last 18 months and more criticizing Washington for taking similar steps to protect American industry. In the absence of a hold-your-nose peace accord with Russia to reduce energy costs that will almost certainly not happen, what is Europe’s grand macro strategy to avoid being de-industrialised by China and vassalized by US energy and finance?
Tyler Durden
Mon, 07/06/2026 - 09:15 Close
Mon, 06 Jul 2026 13:00:00 +0000 Porsche To Eliminate 4,000 Jobs In Germany: Report
Porsche To Eliminate 4,000 Jobs In Germany: Report
Germany was once the industrial engine of Europe, but years of disastrous climate change policies, high energy costs, and left-wing economic mismanagement have battered its manufac
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Porsche To Eliminate 4,000 Jobs In Germany: Report
Germany was once the industrial engine of Europe, but years of disastrous climate change policies, high energy costs, and left-wing economic mismanagement have battered its manufacturing base. This pressure has been roiling the country's auto industry, where struggling carmakers are restructuring operations through workforce reductions, production cuts, and capacity reductions.
Germany's top financial newspaper, Handelsblatt , reports that Porsche is preparing another round of deep job cuts at its main factories as the sports car maker grapples with weak demand.
The company is considering eliminating as many as 4,000 additional jobs at its Zuffenhausen plant, the outlet said, citing people familiar with the matter. These reductions would come on top of previously agreed cuts impacting 3,900 jobs.
Porsche's Zuffenhausen plant in Stuttgart is home to the brand's core sports car production lines, including the 911, 718, and Taycan.
Administration and management roles are expected to be reduced the most, while Porsche may also cut capacity at its Weissach development site by up to 30%.
Last month, Porsche CEO Michael Leiters said the company plans to produce at a lower capacity than the roughly 280,000 cars sold last year. He stated that the company must "make money with fewer cars."
Porsche's profit eroded further in the first quarter as the automaker faced mounting pressure from tariffs, geopolitical turmoil, and gaps in its model lineup. The emergence of Chinese EV giants like BYD and Chery in Europe is another troubling development for EU automakers.
Porsche is part of the Volkswagen Group, where the VW CEO recently warned that more than 100,000 jobs could be eliminated in a massive overhaul.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 07/06/2026 - 09:00 Close