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Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

Sometimes the best conversations happen after an argument.

That's exactly what unfolded this week when I sat down with fund manager Larry Lepard for a discussion that almost never happened. After disagreeing earlier in the week over my criticism of Michael Saylor, Strategy, and the company's evolving Bitcoin strategy, we decided to hash it out publicly in a podcast/debate. Stupid thing to get in the way of a friendship, right?

The result wasn't a shouting match. It was a substantive debate between two people who actually agree on more than they disagree. We both remain skeptical of today's euphoric markets. We both think most of crypto outside of Bitcoin is likely worthless. And we both believe Bitcoin deserves to be taken seriously as a macro asset.

Where we disagree is on Strategy. My argument was never that the company is headed for an imminent collapse. In fact, I acknowledged that its new Bitcoin monetization framework, dedicated cash reserves, and more disciplined capital allocation likely buy the company significant time while improving financial flexibility.

My concern is with management credibility. Earlier this year Michael Saylor insisted Strategy would not become a Bitcoin seller. Today, the company has sold Bitcoin as part of its capital management strategy while shifting its messaging toward liquidity and balance sheet flexibility. I also questioned why "Bitcoin Yield," once heavily promoted by both Saylor and CEO Phong Le, has largely disappeared from public messaging now that the metric has become less favorable. To me, consistency matters, especially when investors are being asked to trust management.

Larry's response was that I'm confusing adaptation with deception. He argued management simply adjusted after learning where the market's tolerance for leverage actually sits. Rather than signaling distress, he believes the company's new emphasis on liquidity strengthens the business and reassures investors that dividend obligations remain easily manageable.

His broader point was that the balance sheet simply doesn't support the bearish narrative. With roughly $6 billion of debt against tens of billions of dollars in Bitcoin holdings, Larry believes Strategy remains well insulated, even if Bitcoin suffers another major drawdown.

I pushed back by arguing that the entire bull case rests on assumptions continuing to hold. Bitcoin has never existed alongside equity markets this expensive, nor has there ever been a corporate treasury vehicle as large as Strategy simultaneously serving as one of the market's biggest buyers while now acknowledging it can also become a seller.

Leverage changes the equation. Every preferred issue, dividend obligation, and financing decision adds another layer that depends on Bitcoin continuing to appreciate over time. If Bitcoin performs as expected, those obligations remain manageable. If it doesn't, they become increasingly important.

Larry countered that I was overly focused on downside scenarios while overlooking Bitcoin's asymmetric upside. He pointed to prior drawdowns, increasing institutional adoption, ETF ownership, and long-term network growth as evidence that Bitcoin continues following the same path it always has.

One place we found plenty of common ground was on crypto more broadly. Larry argued most of the crypto ecosystem is ultimately worthless while Bitcoin increasingly resembles digital gold. I largely agreed, though I noted that a collapse elsewhere in crypto could still create broader risk-off pressure that spills over into Bitcoin and highly levered companies like Strategy.

The biggest takeaway wasn't who won the debate. It was that markets need more conversations like this. Healthy skepticism shouldn't automatically be confused with pessimism, and pointing out risks isn't the same as predicting disaster.

Larry remains convinced Strategy is one of the market's best long-term opportunities.I remain convinced that management credibility, leverage, and changing narratives deserve scrutiny. Reasonable people can disagree. That's exactly what made the conversation worth having.

Now you can watch the full debate 100% free and decide for yourself.

(WATCH THE FULL DEBATE, 100% FREE, HERE). 

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QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions.

As of May 20, 2026 I personally no longer actively trade (read my story here). My investing/saving is done by recurring contributions mostly to sector ETFs and a few select equities, trusted third parties who oversee my accounts, and advisors. Such advisors or funds, through individual equities, options, index funds, mutual funds, ETFs, or other securities, may have positions in, exposure to, or holdings of names mentioned herein that I know nothing about. Basically, via index funds, ETFs and individual equities it is possible I could own, have exposure to, or not own anything at any point. As of the same date, May 20, 2026, in an attempt to lead a healthier lifestyle, I’ve also excluded myself from fantasy sports, sports betting, online and in-person casinos and prediction markets.

And all positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.

The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

Did the Israelis do it?  Did the US government?  Did Charlie Kirk's wife plan it?  Did Trump have Charlie killed?  Nope. It turns out that all the theories raging online about the "real" assassins behind the Charlie Kirk murder were complete bunk - A distraction away from the obvious suspect and the leftist movement that inspired him.     

Anyone waiting for concrete evidence to be produced before forming conclusions on the Tyler Robinson case was richly rewarded in the past week, because the preliminary court hearing did not disappoint. 

The prosecution produced a substantial evidence trial implicating Robinson in the killing, including testimony from his trans lover and roommate, Lance Twiggs (aka "Luna").  Twiggs recounted Robinson's confession that he did, in fact, shoot Charlie Kirk, and he identified Robinson in multiple surveillance videos showing Robinson scouting the UVU campus in Orem, Utah.  

?? WATCH: FULL video of Lance Twiggs' DAMNING testimony about accused Charlie Kirk kiIIer Tyler Robinson

It's pretty clear why the defense worked SO hard to hide this

KEY MOMENTS:

01:08 - Placed under OATH, agreeing to give testimony under penalty of perjury
01:58 -… pic.twitter.com/tUubdhC1yD

— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) July 9, 2026

Not surprisingly, Robinson's defense team tried unsuccessfully to block the release of this testimony to the media and the public.  The Twiggs interview confirms statements made in the original arrest report, which included the fact that Robinson confessed to his own family members that he committed the crime.  It's the reason they arranged for Tyler to turn himself in to law enforcement.    

This arrest report was made available to the public not long after Kirk's assassination.  Yet, Robinson's confession to his family was ignored and conspiracy theories persisted.  Unless everyone involved is "in on the conspiracy", including Robinson trans lover and his own family, then there is no viable defense.  Robinson's defense team's only recourse has been to block as much evidence as possible from being seen by the public. 

This includes never before released high definition footage which media witnesses in the courtroom describe as detailed images of a man identified by investigators (and witnesses viewing the footage) as Tyler Robinson climbing to the roof, going prone with a rifle, and "jolting" (as if absorbing the recoil of a rifle shot). 

Just witnessed something at the Charlie Kirk assassination pre-trial in Utah that has NOT been made public yet and you need to hear about it...

Erika Kirk asked for us to be here today. We sat inside the small courthouse in Provo with the family. The Judge told the media to turn… pic.twitter.com/vDFCnY53ah

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) July 10, 2026

He then runs across the roof and jumps off the edge with an item wrapped in a towel.  Robinson's defense team presented no alibi for his whereabouts during this time, which means he doesn't have one. 

Oh, what’s this?

The prosecutors in Charlie Kirk’s murder trial telling the Judge they have video of Tyler Robinson taking the shot:

"Tyler makes his way to the sniper's perch. Takes the shot. Then runs, drops off the building. All captured on video."
?? pic.twitter.com/89YNx9WtxN

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) July 11, 2026

Though this video will not be released to the public (yet) on the request of the defense team, it corroborates already available footage of a man identified as Tyler Robinson leaving a vehicle (a gray Dodge Charger) registered to him, walking across the campus and entering the building stairwell with a limp just before the shooting. 

New video shows what a law enforcement officer identified as Tyler Robinson walking with a limp on the UVU campus shortly before Charlie Kirk’s murder. It’s been suggested that it may have been due to a concealed gun or gun part. pic.twitter.com/4tR7LNjx5H

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) July 7, 2026

Beyond the video footage, DNA evidence from the rifle and the towel it was wrapped in was identified as belonging to Tyler Robinson and Lance Twiggs.  Twiggs testified that Robinson had also asked him about the use of a Dremel tool to etch "messages on bullets".  The rifle rounds recovered from the Kirk shooting was etched with Antifa related phrases including "“Hey fascist! Catch!” and “Oh Bella, ciao, bella, ciao Bella ciao ciao ciao" (From an Antifa rally song). 

Robinson's family and Lance Twiggs noted in the arrest report and interviews than Robinson had expressed political anger against Charlie Kirk and Donald Trump leading up to the shooting.  Robinson was, without a doubt, motivated by left-wing politics, which undermines the false narrative promoted by media pundits and celebrities like Jimmy Kimmel that Robinson is conservative. 

Soft point .30 cal bullet fragments were recovered from Charlie Kirk's body and shown in the hearing.  And though identifying tool marks were destroyed by the impact and fragmentation, the bullet caliber matches the rifle that was recovered (with Robinson's DNA all over it).  

The evidence is so overwhelming that many commentators expect Robinson to change his plea to guilty.  This would likely save his parents from being put on the stand and going through the pain of testifying against their own son (which they're going to do if the case goes to jury trial).  The presiding judge (Judge Tony Graf) has until September to decide if the case will go forward.  The extended wait time may be designed to give Robinson an opportunity to change his plea in order to avoid the death penalty.  

Everyone Robinson knows is confirming his guilt, because he confessed to them that he did it.  

It is unfortunate that Charlie Kirk's wife and family have been made to suffer through the indignity of unfounded theories while waiting so many months for this evidence to be released.  It's greatly distressing that the woke left also continues to engage in political violence and assassination attempts, emboldened by Robinson's success. 

It should not surprise anyone that the person most likely to have killed Charlie Kirk is a leftist.  Leftists have been enacting organized violence for years now.  The real conspiracy is that conservative groups were tricked into infighting about who did it when the answer was obvious.  

Authored by The Federalist Papers Project (@TheFederalist1) via X,

Ayn Rand was right when she wrote these words, and she is still right now.

“Fascism, Nazism, Communism and Socialism are only superficial variations of the same monstrous theme: collectivism.”

That is the part too many people refuse to understand.

These systems may use different slogans.

They may wave different flags. They may promise different futures.

One may speak in the language of nationalism, another in the language of equality, another in the language of compassion, another in the language of revolution.

But underneath the branding, the heart of the thing is the same.

The individual is pushed aside. The family is weakened. Faith is mocked or controlled.

Property becomes conditional. Speech becomes dangerous. And the State becomes the final authority over your life.

That is collectivism.

It always starts with beautiful promises. Free this, fair that, justice for all, power to the people. But somehow, every time, the people end up with less power and the rulers end up with more.

Why anyone would want this in America is beyond my understanding.

The only explanation that makes sense is that generations have been trained not to recognize the pattern. They were taught to hate capitalism, distrust liberty, and look to government as the answer to every problem. That did not happen by accident.

A free people cannot stay free if they forget what freedom is.

That is why this warning matters.

Rand was not saying these systems are identical in every historical detail. She was saying they all lead back to the same ugly principle, the group over the person, the State over the citizen, the collective over the individual soul.

Different heads.

Same beast.

And once that beast gets inside a nation, it does not leave quietly.

Should foreign governments be allowed to support or fund lawsuits against the US government over its immigration and enforcement policies?  US sovereign immunity aside, the very idea of foreigners trying to influence American immigration law through indirect civil suits sounds insane.  Why, oh why, should Americans care what Mexico thinks?

To put the issue in context, it's important to understand that the Mexican government has been actively encouraging and enabling mass illegal immigration into the US for decades.  This strategy accomplishes a few things simultaneously:

First, the southern border acts as a steam valve for poverty stricken malcontents and criminals.  Mexican leaders like to have the option of leaving the door open to citizens crossing illegally into the US en masse because this means less mouths to feed, less strain on social services and less crime for Mexico. 

Second, the Mexican economy relies heavily on foreign remittances.  Illegals from Mexico enter the US, work under the table, then wire around $64 billion back home every year.  Mexico's annual federal welfare programs cost only $57 billion per year.  In other words, remittances from migrants in the US are bigger than Mexico's entire welfare budget.

It has become increasingly clear since Donald Trump took office in 2025 that far too many third-world countries are using the US as a cash cow for their own national economies.  And, they have been doing this primarily through illegal immigration, or, work visa and refugee loopholes.  Without Trump's migrant crackdown, this problem may have never been exposed to the wider public. 

Third, mass immigration acts as a destabilizing element in US politics and economics.  There are many socialist elements within Mexico, not to mention Central and South America, who would like to quietly sabotage the US to make way for "La Raza" - An ideological movement of Hispanic activists that wants to invade and reconquer North America. 

They aren't satisfied with simply bleeding the US for a trickle of wealth.  Rather, like any group of barbarians at the gate, they want to pillage the entire country because they live under the delusion that they're "owed" something.  This agenda, of course, relies heavily on progressive politicians staying in power in the US, which is not currently the case. 

Claudia Sheinbaum said on Thursday that her government plans to file criminal complaints in the U.S. regarding ?Mexican citizens who have died in immigration custody or while being targeted in anti-immigration ?operations. The goal is to escalate these complaints while supporting civil suits. Fourteen Mexican nationals have died while in the custody of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and three more died in arrest operations conducted by the agency, the Mexican government said.

The latest incident in Houston involved an arrest which was disrupted by a Mexican migrant who was not the original target of the operation.  Agents report that the man tried to ram them with his van while they were looking for a different suspect.    

Lorenzo Araujo, a Mexican immigrant who had lived in the United States without authorization for 35 years, was on his way to work with three other men.  When agents tried to stop the vehicle, the encounter quickly escalated when he allegedly tried to run them over.  An agent shot Mr. Araujo in the abdomen. He died at a hospital hours later.  Suspects generally only end up dead when they present a physical threat to ICE agents.   

Mexico's president intends to exploit these events as a way to rally lawfare operations.  She seems to believe that she can leverage against deportation policies by burying the Trump Administration in litigation.  She's not alone.  Democrats are also using similar tactics while ignoring the circumstances of the shootings and the self defense of immigration agents. 

Democrat Rep. Al Green says Americans are obligated to give illegal aliens protection under the Constitution: "Mr. Arajo belongs to us! He should not receive any less attention from the Constitution that I or any of you would receive!" pic.twitter.com/3rW5DFgQoA

— TheBlaze (@theblaze) July 10, 2026

When it comes to deportations, illegal immigrants do not have the same constitutional protections as American citizens.  Due process for migrants only involves identifying them as legal or illegal.  If they are illegal, then they can and should be kicked out of the country with haste.  No trial.  No jury.  No wasted time or wasted taxpayer money.

It makes no sense that Democrats under the Biden Administration can open the borders to millions of illegals without any legal checks and balances, then they demand that the Trump Administration pursue years of court cases to remove just a handful.

Meanwhile, it's obvious that Mexico's government has every reason to subvert the deportation process.  By labeling it a "human rights violation" and creating a legal fog, the Mexicans, like the Democrats, are hoping they can stall the accelerating deportations so that their economy can continue to benefit from the parasitic relationship they have with the US. 

Mexico's only goal is to create as many obstacles as possible with the expectation that Democrats will eventually return to power and open the floodgates once again.  

President Trump's declaration from the NATO summit in Turkey this week saying that he'll give Ukraine a license to produce Patriot defense systems has been met with a lot of skepticism, both among Ukrainians and internationally. 

"We’ll give them the right to make Patriots. We’ll show them how to do it," Trump had said. "I think they can produce them pretty quickly."

Zelensky seized on the opening, telling reports on Thursday, "America has recognized Ukraine as a country that is ready to do this" and urged Ukrainian and American officials to now work "without pauses" to finalize the licensing arrangements.

Immediately the Associated Press raised some relevant questions, such as: What exactly would Ukraine be allowed to produce?... also while pointing out that under the best conditions, getting such production off the ground would take 'years'. It wrote:

Anatolii Khrapchynskyi, development director of the Fly Group Ukraine defense company, said Trump’s wording was ambiguous because he referred broadly to producing “Patriots,” without specifying whether he meant missiles, launchers, radar systems, command centers or components.

Missile production alone involves a vast supply chain, Khrapchynskyi said, with hundreds of companies making parts such as control surfaces, engines, guidance systems and communications equipment.

Following this, on Saturday Ukrainian economist and financial analyst Alexey Kushch - considered an expert of Ukraine's defense production - was cited in regional media as dismissing Trump's promise as mere empty PR.

His commentary is below, featured in Russian media:

"I think that was a marketing statement," Kushch said in an interview with Novyny. Live news website, referring to Trump’s pledge. According to him, only Semi-Knocked Down (SKD) production of Patriot missiles could be launched in Ukraine, using imported components. "Such production sites should be protected," the expert explained. "The whole of Ukraine is exposed to [enemy] fire, and missiles can even reach the Transcarpathian Region," he said. According to Kushch, Patriot production could be localized in his country only after the hostilities end.

"We don’t have a [Turkish] Bayraktar plant, or [German] Rheinmetall production either here yet," he added.

As for Trump's initial comments, he had also explained that American defense firms are already building "four plants" in the US and claimed that "all of our companies will be able to do this in two to three months."

There have notoriously been immense backlogs when it comes to Patriot production, and there's said to be great global demand among US allies, especially given depletions which have come as a result of the Iran war.

What some meteorologists are calling the "planet's strongest heat dome" is set to build over America's heartland next week. Triple-digit temperatures are expected across the northern Plains, with dangerous heat pushing eastward into parts of the Mid-Atlantic.

"The planet's strongest heat dome will develop over the Intermountain West and Plains into next week," meteorologists Ben Noll wrote on X, adding, "This will produce rare levels of heat up to around 110 degrees in Idaho, Wyoming, Montana and the Dakotas. On Sunday, Billings, Montana, could be hotter than Phoenix!"

The planet's strongest heat dome will develop over the Intermountain West and Plains into next week.

This will produce rare levels of heat up to around 110 degrees in Idaho, Wyoming, Montana and the Dakotas.

On Sunday, Billings, Montana, could be hotter than Phoenix! pic.twitter.com/rM60lGjUVS

— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) July 10, 2026

Meteorologist Jeff Berardelli also sounded the alarm, saying, "Whopper of a heat dome coming, and that's no exaggeration! In all aspects: size, longevity, and especially intensity this will be extreme. The heat dome should shatter all-time records for upper level pressure in the Northern Plain States." 

?? Whopper of a heat dome coming, and that’s no exaggeration! In all aspects: size, longevity, and especially intensity this will be extreme. The heat dome should shatter all-time records for upper level pressure in the Northern Plain States. Actual Temperatures (not heat index)… pic.twitter.com/C3HF7N2nbL

— Jeff Berardelli (@WeatherProf) July 8, 2026

Bloomberg data for the Lower 48 show that forecast high temperatures will be comparable to those recorded during the last heat wave from late June into early July.

High temperatures in Washington are expected to reach 100F by midweek.

Temperatures in New York City are expected to reach the high 90s by Wednesday.

It is likely that the PJM Interconnection grid will withstand the second round of heat, as the Trump administration has made it a priority to ensure maximum power generation during hot days when cooling demand surges.

Beyond grid stability concerns during peak-load hours, attention will likely turn to agricultural markets as critical growing regions bake under extreme heat. Wheat futures in Chicago surged 3% on Friday. 

The Strait of Hormuz’s southern shipping channel remained open Sunday morning despite a sharp escalation in tit-for-tat attacks, with the US launching a third round of airstrikes on Iran and Tehran retaliating against US-linked targets across Arab Gulf states.

"Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continued at reduced levels, with vessels transiting via both the southern Omani corridor and the northern Iranian-controlled route," the Joint Maritime Information Center wrote in a note early Sunday.

JMIC added, "Traffic patterns continued to reflect operator caution following recent attacks."

US Central Command said the overnight strikes on Iran were to neuter its ability to attack commercial ships in the Hormuz chokepoint after a Cyprus-flagged container vessel was heavily damaged near the critical waterway. Iranian media reported explosions across key coastal and energy facilities, including Bushehr, Asalouyeh, and Bandar Abbas.

Our overnight US-Iran wrap detailed that Tehran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on US-linked military facilities in Jordan, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman. Qatar said it intercepted incoming missiles, while air-defense sirens were reported across several Gulf states. Read the report here.

Despite Tehran declaring the Hormuz chokepoint "closed until further notice," JMIC's update on the southern Omani shipping corridor and Bloomberg data show a trickle of activity, which may only suggest Tehran's total control of the strait is waning.

As for the normalization of tanker flows in the Hormuz chokepoint, the timeline now appears to be slipping. Many institutional desks had already priced in a gradual reopening and lowered their Brent and WTI forecasts (Citi was the latest), but that outlook now looks on hold.