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Amid the escalating violence in Minnesota, we calmly ask you to cast your mind back a few years - we know it's hard, but just try...

President Obama gave his ICE chief an award for deporting 409,000 illegals (in 2012).

President Trump's ICE chief has deported 290,000 (in 2025) and he is called a Nazi.

The ICE chief... the same guy - Tom Homan.

The difference is Democrats' rhetoric and the industrial crisis-manufacturing complex.

And that is why President Trump is calling for some "common sense" from officials:

"I am hereby calling on Governor Walz, Mayor Frey, and EVERY Democrat Governor and Mayor in the United States of America to formally cooperate with the Trump Administration to enforce our Nation’s Laws, rather than resist and stoke the flames of Division, Chaos, and Violence:

1.    Governor Walz and Mayor Frey should turn over all Criminal Illegal Aliens that are currently incarcerated in their State Prisons and Jails to Federal Authorities, along with all Illegal Criminals with an active warrant or known Criminal History, for Immediate Deportation.

2.    State and Local Law Enforcement must agree to turn over all Illegal Aliens arrested by Local Police.

3.    Local Police must assist Federal Law Enforcement in apprehending and detaining Illegal Aliens who are wanted for Crimes.

4.    Democrat Politicians must partner with the Federal Government to protect American Citizens in the rapid removal of all Criminal Illegal Aliens in our Country. Some Democrats, in places like Memphis, Tennessee, or Washington, D.C., have done so, resulting in safer streets for ALL.

Additionally, President Trump calls for an end to Sanctuary cities:

"In addition, I am hereby calling on the United States Congress to immediately pass Legislation to END Sanctuary Cities, which is the root cause of all of these problems.

American Cities should be Safe Sanctuaries for Law Abiding American Citizens ONLY, not Illegal Alien Criminals who broke our Nation’s Laws."

And all in the name of "common sense":

"All of these requests are rooted in COMMON SENSE, and will provide the best possible circumstances to, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!

The Trump Administration is standing by, and waiting for ANY Democrat to do the right thing, and work with us on these important matters of MAKING AMERICA SAFE like it is in all sections of our Country where we are, together with Local Leadership, participating and involved."

We anxiously await the Democrats' "common sense" response... which we expect to be "nope! Racist!"

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

The Fed

On the betting apps, it looks like Rick Rieder has become the odds on favorite to win. I like the idea of mixing things up at the Fed and think that having a market practitioner in charge would be an interesting change. If he gets the nomination, expect more of a focus across the yield curve (our view all along of how the Fed will operate in 2026). The balance sheet is less likely to be used as a blunt, lumbering tool (prescribed amounts for well-telegraphed time periods), but rather something to shape the curve to fit policy more frequently.

The Fed – Coordination Should Be Encouraged, Not Feared

I think coordination and cooperation between the Fed, Treasury, and the admin is good. It doesn’t defeat “independence” and has happened in the past – typically, in times of stress, with COVID being the most recent example. I continue to believe the announcement that the Fed would buy fixed income ETFs changed the trajectory of the corporate bond market overnight. For those of you following the T-Report, you know I strongly believe in the ETF Spiral™, where ETFs trading at a discount to NAV help create more selling pressure. It might seem counterintuitive, but that is a hill I will stand on and fight to the end (and have a few times). At the time, even VCSH (a short-dated corporate bond ETF) was trading at a large discount to NAV (more than 3% if I remember correctly). That ETF Spiral™ was adding to the problems at the front-end of the corporate bond market. When the announcement came that the Fed would buy these ETFs, the problem corrected itself quite literally overnight, and the corporate bond market began to heal, rapidly.

I bring this up because:

• The Federal Reserve did not have the mandate to buy corporate bond ETFs. They just didn’t.
• The Federal Reserve did not have the “plumbing,” in any case, to buy ETFs. They weren’t set up to do it at all.

But…

• The Treasury could take that risk, but didn’t have the funds to buy a lot.
• The solution was a “CLO” type of structure, where Treasury provided the “equity” capital. They would take the losses. The Fed could leverage that money, something within their repertoire.
• Voila – the ability to buy corporate bond ETFs was created through a clever interaction of the Treasury and the Fed, both using tools in their toolkit. (I am sure I have overly simplified this, but the gist of the story remains the same).
  • They still didn’t have the “plumbing” and I think it took a month before any corporate bond ETFs were purchased, but that didn’t matter, as the problem resolved itself overnight. That shows the power of the balance sheet on markets (which we witnessed recently again, when the agencies announced greater purchases of mortgage-backed bonds and spreads collapsed even before the first additional bond was purchased).

The morals of the story are:

• Coordination should be welcomed and does not eliminate the independence of the Fed.
• The balance sheet is an incredibly powerful tool, and taking a new approach to its usage, could unlock some interesting new ways to shape the curve.

The Fed Won’t Cut, But They Should

The bond market is pricing in a 0.03% chance of a cut in January (which is also, sadly, the realistic probability of the Bills ever winning a Super Bowl). So, we will not get a cut this week. We are also unlikely to see a cut slated for the meeting in March.

I think the case that the “Neutral Rate” is lower than where the Fed seems to think it is, is a strong one. Miran surprised me with that argument, but I actually like it and agree.

January jobs could be strong. We continue to believe the data overstates jobs in Jan/Feb and understates jobs in the summer, as the seasonal adjustments no longer reflect seasonal reality. Construction has shifted from Northeast-centric to Southern-centric. The “gig” economy has shifted how “seasonal” workers are hired, which along with the earlier start of shopping (especially on-line, where “Black Friday” sales start before Thanksgiving) means the BLS adds too many jobs back in January. In any case, I will admit, I expect a strong jobs report for January, but it will be “adjustment” driven more than reality driven, and my case for cutting depends on other arguments.

The ”crowd-sourced” data doesn’t paint a pretty picture.

The QUITS rate in the JOLTS data remains weak. It has improved a smidge and has been affected by the government shutdown (in terms of preparation of the data), but is still below the average of the past decade. This just tells me that people with the sorts of jobs that can say “take this job and shove it” aren’t saying that. They are keeping their head down and keeping their job because they know how difficult it is to find another job.

While I think the jobs data warrants attention and gives the Fed the ammunition they need to at least look for cuts, I think they are stuck in some mythical world of higher inflation.

Again, many of these committee members were in camp “transitory” which turned out not to be transitory. Many of the people on this Fed were still doing QE when they were already talking about hiking rates. QE does not need to be well telegraphed. For the life of me, I cannot understand why we would be doing QE when hikes are on the table.

Finally, for those who manage risk, you often have “stop losses” because when something goes wrong on a view, it is difficult to change your mind. You don’t necessarily think well. So, stop losses force change. Corporations tend to see “heads roll” if a major strategic blunder occurs. I still do not think anyone from “team transitory” lost their job.

So, we are stuck, I believe, with a Fed that is fighting their own past mistakes. They are too worried about being wrong to act.

Why does OER still exist?

Had the Fed just looked at Zillow Rent, we would have cut off QE much sooner and probably started hiking sooner. Maybe, with the shutdown, and being forced to look at alternative data, the Fed will be more wholistic in their choice of data to be dependent on? OER is fraught with issues. (Only a portion of the market is evaluated each month, and the premise that most rentals are single family homes, is now ludicrous). Even the Cleveland Fed has developed a real-time rent estimate. Why not rely more heavily on that? Housing in CPI is currently overstated and will certainly come down in the next few quarters (just math). So cut now, rather than waiting for this particularly bad data set to conform to reality.

Maybe Truflation is on to something?

Truflation only attempts to capture part of the inflation story. But wow, it is telling a very different story than core PCE (the Fed’s preferred measure). I wouldn’t pay attention, except Truflation showed more inflation, sooner than CPI did back during time “transitory.” Again, had the Fed given this data set some serious consideration, we would have stopped QE earlier and hiked sooner.

The Fed should cut, but they won’t.

Electricity Inflation

If you want to get a room with a hundred or more people engaged and focused on one topic, this is the chart to use (as I learned in Baltimore on Friday).

It has slowed of late (kind of, I guess), but is and will be one of the biggest issues politicians face in coming elections. Enough on that for now, but that is why our ProSec™ theme focuses on power generation, from solar, to coal, to gas, to fission, to fusion (I don’t see wind getting traction under this admin).

Does the EU Need Change?

The German Chancellor said that the EU was the “world champion of overregulation.” If you haven’t seen the Venn diagrams of who leads what between China, the U.S., and the EU, they are funny. There is overlap between the U.S. and China while the EU stands alone on “regulation.”

Hungary blocked the EU from sending a “joint statement” to the U.S. in response to Greenland. Sure, sticks and stones may break my bones, but joint statements will never hurt me, so it was likely to be an ineffective tactic to begin with. But sometimes ineffective is better than nothing. Hungary, at $220 billon of GDP, got to determine EU policy? I get inclusion, but this is going to be difficult if the “weakest” link has control, thereby elevating it to the “strongest” link.

You know that I felt Europe had “one job” in regards to Russia. Their job was to seize the frozen assets and come to the U.S. with “oodles” of money to spend on weapons for Ukraine (with no need to fund the purchases, etc.) Belgium said no. Maybe Hungary and Slovakia did too (can’t tell from AI or from memory).

Not saying that “might is right,” but if Germany and France and others are aligned, doesn’t that mean something?

No idea how Europe will react to so much of what is going on, though I think Europe is going to adopt ProSec™ far sooner than I had expected.

ProSec For Housing Affordability

We could do a whole section on housing affordability and we will. But today it is too cold and the report is already getting too long (though I somehow find myself in Palm Beach this weekend, so guess I should stop writing about the cold). So far, the evidence is largely anecdotal, but I’ve had several really encouraging discussion on this subject.

Production for Security has the potential to create jobs in areas that currently are not overly crowded and very expensive.

Some areas have a high cost of land. That makes it difficult to create affordable housing. While construction costs (especially the materials) don’t vary as much region to region, they do vary (especially labor).

If we can create pockets of new jobs in new areas, it could reduce the average cost of home prices in the U.S. without causing existing home prices to drop much.

That is the key – building new homes in areas that are less expensive to build in makes the average go down, without hurting existing home prices too much (there will be some drag as people move out of some expensive areas).

Just starting to explore this idea, but look at the housing boom that occurred in conjunction with the shale boom. 1Could we be at the early stages of a self-correcting housing affordability solution? New jobs in new areas?

Something to ponder (in a positive way).

ProSec Is Going Global After Davos

During the President’s speech/lecture/admonishment/address/whatever you want to call it, he did specifically say something to the effect of:

• The earths and minerals are NOT rare, it is the processed earths and minerals that are rare.
• This is the point we have been trying to make, and it seems like it is finally being addressed properly. The real bottleneck is in the processed and refined versions. See last weekend’s Production, Security, and Resilience for more on that.

For what it is worth, I think there is more to the Greenland and Venezuela story on rare earths and critical minerals. I think the “surprise” will be not just extracting more from these two countries, but also processing and refining more there. It fits the theme of keeping production of “things” we need in the Western Hemisphere where the U.S. has a renewed focus.

Bottom Line

Stay warm. The Fed won’t cut, but they should

January has been a long month already, only 11 more months to go until 2027.

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

The mid-19th century Gold Rush earned California the nickname “Golden State.” Over generations, the region became a place of aspiration— a projection screen for ambition and prosperity. Here, the American Dream coalesced into tangible stories of social mobility. Today, the state has become the stage for a political experiment that mirrors Europe’s globalist ideology.

This year’s World Economic Forum in Davos was entirely overshadowed by Donald Trump’s speech. The U.S. President declared the centrally planned EU-style climate socialism a failure, sending a chill through those who had benefited economically from the past years’ policies and fully embraced the green transformation agenda.

A politician who seems particularly devoted to this European-style centralist approach is California Governor Gavin Newsom. The day after Trump’s grand Davos performance, Newsom had the chance to present his perspective—a performance that quickly struck observers as bizarre. He labeled the Western leaders’ response to Trump’s policies as pathetic, accusing them of cowardice and bowing to the Trump administration. Symbolically, he carried a pair of bright red Trump Signature Knee Pads as a political prop, claiming he should have brought a full set for every world leader.

This hardly reflects the conduct of a serious statesman, particularly as his policies at home have generated genuine economic problems and deep social upheavals.

California on a Green Course

Newsom, a prospective Democratic presidential hopeful, governs the world’s fourth-largest economy—if California were its own nation.

He stages himself as a champion of the supposedly progressive, preferring the role of climate activist over that of a sober governor. The 2024 California wildfire disaster was apodictically attributed by him, in a blunt “Basta-style,” to climate change—opportunistic, eager to push through his climate agenda in the immediate shock of catastrophe.

Repeatedly, the state-induced water shortages in California are stylized as consequences of extreme drought linked to CO2 emissions. California finds itself trapped in a familiar argumentative loop: every storm, every hail event is reinterpreted as a climate catastrophe, while normal conditions recede behind a veil of media-induced panic.

Newsom would prefer to exclude skeptics of the CO2 debate from political discourse—a faint echo of Daniel Günther, but in woke-American design. Under his governance, California has become North America’s LGBTQ mecca: gender politics over academic excellence, paternalistic state control replacing the principle of autonomous individual action. The American spirit of the minimal state, which respects private life, is disappearing piece by piece in Newsom’s California.

Since taking office in 2019, California has mirrored the European Union in textbook fashion. The state has become the U.S. model for the most radical implementation of the Green Deal. Regulatory codes for industry, agriculture, and transportation read like translations of Brussels’ bureaucratic playbook.

As in the EU, California’s green transformation and debt-financed subsidy machinery have rapidly driven up public debt: over the past three years, the budget deficit reached roughly $110 billion, and the total debt now stands at $1.8 trillion—including unfunded social obligations.

Debt King Newsom governs his ideal state on clay feet.

One wonders at the audacity of his Davos performance as a supposed savior of the American Dream. Of course, it was home turf. In the WEF halls, at the heart of globalist think tanks, there is still faith in a centrally planned Net-Zero economy—without crashing the existing economic model or provoking a severe societal crisis.

In California, CO2 emissions are to end by 2045. The cult lives, beneath the state’s radiant sun, which has simultaneously spawned a veritable homeless industry alongside its green art economy.

During Newsom’s tenure, a hybrid system of state-funded private homelessness care emerged. The number of beneficiaries managed by California’s social complex has multiplied tenfold to 180,000. Much like in Minnesota, where a network of Somali immigrant-run daycares created a tax-extraction model, California has a comparable system: poverty is managed and monetized, with major beneficiaries being Democratic Party members—a vast political donation machine ensuring campaign financing for future elections.

Ever-Increasing Taxes

California’s increasingly centralist regulatory policies are matched by aggressive fiscal measures aimed at delaying the inevitable economic collapse. Alongside heavy burdens on the middle class, businesses, and rising social contributions, a so-called billionaire tax is nearing enactment—a populist instrument, mirroring Germany’s current policy moves. In the 2026 super-election year, Germany’s ruling coalition seeks moral credibility by blaming the wealthy for social and economic decay. Similarly, future inheritance taxes on mid-sized corporate assets are planned. It sells well, a sound of social justice, distracting from the true culprits of the crisis.

This is Newsom in full form. California — a slice of Europe on the American West Coast.

Of course, Newsom’s billionaire tax is a Trojan horse. Once codified, the initially one-time plunder of the private wealth of roughly 200 California billionaires will soon be recast as a recurring “public welfare” levy: five percent of total net worth, payable once, or stretched over five years.

As usual, politics disregards that this capital is often tied up in corporate investments, funding the future of the state and securing jobs. Newsom needs liquidity. The green transformation must be funded—especially as the Trump administration in Washington deregulates the energy sector, prompting businesses to flee California in droves. The Red States are in demand now more than ever.

California billionaires voice unified disapproval. Larry Page, former CEO of Alphabet/Google, spins off parts of his companies to Delaware. Elon Musk had long since relocated Tesla. Peter Thiel, co-founder of Palantir, moves capital to Miami, Florida. David Sachs of Craft Ventures also leaves California for Austin, Texas.

The green transformation chaos has become a boost for U.S. business locations that value private property and market freedom.

We know this industrial exodus from Germany—a near-identical outcome under the same policies. And, like the German government under Friedrich Merz, which layers media spectacles over economic decline alongside the EU Commission, Newsom stages his media skirmishes with Donald Trump. The NGO-prince Newsom rhetorically flees into moralism. His tax-funded social state shields him from economic reality, capital flight, and growing criticism over misplaced priorities.

In Europe, this sound is all too familiar. It preempts criticism that grows louder as Net-Zero policies produce severe collateral damage and social upheaval. The solutions preferred by Newsom and the EU complex follow the same controlled green socialism principle: social scoring models based on individual carbon footprints, a maximalist censorship apparatus in social media, and digital central bank currencies granting the state total power over the private sector. Society is forcibly molded to fit the political ideology—regardless of the cost. Woke softening rhetoric attempts to paint this new socialism in gentle tones, masking its brutal reality.

By Haley Zaremba of OilPrice

• Scientists at the University of New South Wales (UNSW) are developing a "reverse solar" panel, called a thermoradiative diode, which generates electricity by emitting infrared light (heat) into cold surroundings.

• The device works by capturing heat absorbed by the Earth during the day and radiating it out at night, offering a way to generate power when traditional solar panels are inactive.

• While currently producing a small amount of power, the long-term goal for this technology is to power small devices overnight or even supply energy to satellites when they pass through the dark side of their orbit.

On a global level, solar energy has grown exponentially over the last few decades as costs have plummeted and demand has risen accordingly. It is estimated that the world added a third more solar power in 2025 than it did in 2024, marking a remarkable quantity of added capacity. But while renewables are proving too cheap to fail, there are some notable drawbacks to the rapid addition of these resources – most notably the insufficient co-addition of supportive grid and transmission infrastructure and the variability of solar and wind energy, both of which pose significant threat to energy security around the world. 

Unlike fossil fuels, the level of production of which can be manipulated at will to meet demand, solar and wind energy are dependent upon natural variables outside of human control. The production rate of solar panels depends on the length of day and the quality of the sunlight, and the most productive hours are often at odds with demand peaks. 

But a team of scientists in Australia is working on a way to fix that problem by developing a novel type of solar panel that could work at night. It’s a sort of solar panel in reverse, which works by emitting light rather than absorbing it. Instead of using photovoltaics to capture sunlight, this device uses a semiconductor called a thermoradiative diode capable of converting heat into energy. The heat that these devices are using is solar energy, but captured through the heat absorbed by the Earth during sunlight hours, which is then released as infrared energy even well after the sun has set. 

“If you were to look at the Earth at night, what you’d see with an infrared camera is the Earth glowing,” says Professor Ned Ekins-Daukes, who leads the research team developing these thermoradiative ‘solar panels’ at Sydney’s University of New South Wales (UNSW). “What’s happening is the Earth is radiating heat out into the cold universe,” he adds. His team aims to capture that heat and convert it into a useable and reliable energy source.

In more scientific terms, “Solar cells generate an electric current by absorbing photons from a hotter object (i.e. the Sun), whereas thermoradiative diodes generate a current by emitting photons of infrared light into colder surroundings,” explains a companion article by Nature Portfolio. “As long as thermoradiative diodes are warmer than their surroundings, they will emit infrared radiation and generate electricity.”

The research team at UNSW is building on prior research and modeling of thermoradiative diodes developed at Harvard and Stanford universities in the United States. The UNSW team has taken this foundation and run with it, and was the first to successfully use one of the devices to “directly demonstrate electrical power” back in 2022. 

The research has continued to advance since then, but is still a long way from being competitive with conventional solar. “So far, the device can generate only a very small amount of electricity — around 100,000 times less than that of a conventional solar panel,” reports CNN. 

In the not-so-distant future, these diodes could power small devices overnight, functionally replacing batteries or serving to recharge them.

“Many people leave their WiFi on overnight and charge their phones,” says Ekins-Dauke. “There’s a light electrical load at night, which thermoradiative diodes could help supply in the future.” 

But someday, these thermoradiative diode semiconductors could have a much grander application, powering satellites orbiting the earth. These satellites vacillate between light and darkness in relatively quick cycles – about every 45 minutes – and attaching thermoradiative diodes could help to power these devices when they’re out of the reach of sunlight and in the extremely cold temperatures of space. 

About one year ago, the Federal Bureau of Investigation Counterterrorism Division conducted an unclassified briefing warning of an emerging domestic threat vector described as "nihilistic accelerationism." The briefing was around the time of a series of attacks in which left-wing militants firebombed Tesla vehicles at showrooms. These attacks were largely in response to President Donald Trump and Elon Musk's crusade against the federal bureaucracy through DOGE-related initiatives.

By late summer, less than two weeks before Charlie Kirk was assassinated by a left-wing activist, we published an assessment titled "America Has a 'Transtifa' Problem." The report probably stunned most people, and they couldn't believe their eyes as the accelerating convergence of militant ideology and left-wing activism was beginning to unleash chaos.

Weeks later, we penned another note, titled "Planning War Against Fascists" - Socialist Rifle Association Boasts 10,000 Members... In our opinion, the profiling of these left-wing activists, from the Tesla Takedown fueled by dark-money funded NGOs (permanent protest industrial complex) and the militant left to anti-ICE riots in Los Angeles, to the political assassination of Kirk, only suggested to us that left-wing chaos would accelerate into the new year.

The nation has entered a dangerous period, as the turmoil in Minneapolis could be replicated in other sanctuary cities when warmer weather arrives.

• Left-Wing NGOs Plan "Economic Blackout" Across Minnesota As State Becomes Testbed For Revolution

Left-wing activists are reported to be operating shadow police-style networks on Signal to target federal immigration agents, possibly in coordination with local police and with individuals linked to Gov. Walz, in efforts to impede federal deportation operations. The clashes between activists and federal agents have already resulted in multiple shootings, including two fatal ones. 

???? MINNEAPOLIS SIGNAL INFILTRATED

I have infiltrated organizational signal groups all around Minneapolis with the sole intention of tracking down federal agents and impeding/assaulting/and obstructing them.

BUCKLE UP ALL WILL BE REVEALED

Each area of the city has a signal… pic.twitter.com/ATSHlCucWv

— Cam Higby ???? (@camhigby) January 24, 2026

The chaos emanating from left-wing activists surprisingly and recently prompted deep state publication The Atlantic to pen a note titled, "Left-Wing Terrorism Is on the Rise."

Following the chaos on Saturday, in which another activist was shot and killed by federal agents after an altercation, X users are reporting that Minneapolis's "Antifa General," AKA Kyle Wagner, has urged his comrades: "Get your f—king guns and stop these f—king people"

Citizen journalist Andy Ngo reported:

"Get your f—king guns and stop these f—king people"

A Minnesota Antifa member-turned-social media influencer and online recruiter named Kyle Wagner is urging his comrades to take up arms to kill agents of the federal government. His recruitment videos are on @instagram , which has become popular for the far-left in organizing violence due to its reach with mainstream liberals.

Wagner has branded himself on the neck with the gang tattoo of the Antifa "Iron Front" logo, similar to how neo-Nazis brand themselves with fascist symbols.

“Get your f—king guns and stop these f—king people”

A Minnesota Antifa member-turned-social media influencer and online recruiter named Kyle Wagner is urging his comrades to take up arms to kill agents of the federal government. His recruitment videos are on @instagram, which… pic.twitter.com/TUTZqZQdcT

— Andy Ngo (@MrAndyNgo) January 24, 2026

The cross-dressing activist ...

BREAKING - It’s been revealed Minneapolis’s “Antifa General,” AKA Kyle Wagner, who recently called for guns to be used against the federal government, is a cross-dresser who really enjoys dresses. pic.twitter.com/dIS0Ur9UI0

— Right Angle News Network (@Rightanglenews) January 25, 2026

Before becoming an influencer for Antifa violent extremism, Kyle Edward Wagner, of Eden Prairie, Minn., was a cross-dressing activist. pic.twitter.com/Wh35gJRxer

— Andy Ngo (@MrAndyNgo) January 25, 2026

Others report:

Hey @ICEgov @DHSgov @FBI,

This guy calls himself Kyle, says he’s Antifa, and is on the street in Minneapolis right now near where the anti-ICE attacker got gunned down today.

Kyle has called for people to get their guns and start sh**ting ICE.

Please find and arrest him now! https://t.co/yVQmb3xvYG pic.twitter.com/xZlNd3E3Kk

— Paul A. Szypula ???? (@Bubblebathgirl) January 24, 2026

??Has everyone met Kyle Wagner? Kyle claims that he is Antifa. Kyle is also suggesting killing federal law enforcement!

Kyle is a LOSER!

??Don't be like Kyle!?? pic.twitter.com/5aFp65lTco

— ??????~*Guardians of the Grid *~??????~ USA (@guardingthegrid) January 24, 2026

??BREAKING: Self proclaimed Antifa member, Kyle Wagner just doxxed himself while streaming! https://t.co/iQrY7giNKm pic.twitter.com/EJT4TGp6qU

— I Meme Therefore I Am ???? (@ImMeme0) January 24, 2026

This has been a long time in the making. Our reporting from 2017:

• "Anti-Fascist" Militia Training Video Shows Leftists Are Preparing For Armed Confrontation

Democrats spent a decade creating target profiles on Trump and all of MAGA. 

Here is the roadmap to Charlie Kirk’s assassination… pic.twitter.com/S4JPbPiFy8

— James Woods (@RealJamesWoods) September 12, 2025

Trump White House staffers should probably take retired Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn's advice and run with it (read here).

Update (1603ET): Chuck Schumer is out with a new statement explicitly refusing to move forward with DHS funding as part of the six-part spending package to avert a government shutdown. 

"Senate Democrats will not allow the current DHS funding bill to move forward," he said, adding "Senate Republicans must work with Democrats to advance the other five funding bills while we work to rewrite the DHS bill." 

*  *  *

With Congress already veering towards a shutdown this Friday after Senate Democrats vowed to oppose funding DHS in a six-bill spending package, yesterday's killing of a 37-year-old Minneapolis man by federal agents all but cemented it - unless Republicans are willing to cave. 

In a Saturday night statement, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said Democrats won't advance the bill as long as it includes DHS funding. The package requires Democratic support to clear a 60-vote hurdle. 

"Senate Democrats will not provide the votes to proceed to the appropriations bill if the DHS funding bill is included," said Schumer, adding that he's personally a 'no.'

Following Saturday's shooting, several Democratic senators who previously voted to advance government funding measures flipped, and now oppose the package unless DHS - and therefore funding for ICE and Border Patrol - is stripped.

Please note: @DHSgov org chart dated 2023 (link below) includes @uscoastguard @fema @TSA @CISAgov @SecretService etc.https://t.co/NooJ0vXutz pic.twitter.com/8s1iKTZjlO

— One American (@1silveramerican) January 25, 2026

"I am voting against any funding for DHS until and unless more controls are put in place to hold ICE accountable," said Sen. Brian Schatz (D-HI) in a Saturday statement on X. "I am voting against any funding for DHS until and unless more controls are put in place to hold ICE accountable."

Sens. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) and Jacky Rosen (D-NV) - who voted to end the shutdown in November - also announced on Saturday that they will oppose the DHS funding bill, Politico reports.

"I have the responsibility to hold the Trump Administration accountable when I see abuses of power — like we are seeing from ICE right now," Rosen said on X. "That is why I’ll be voting against any government funding package that contains the bill that funds this agency, until we have guardrails in place to curtail these abuses of power and ensure more accountability and transparency."

The DHS bill passed the House Thursday 220-207, with only seven Democrats voting for it. But Republican House leaders merged it with five other bills funding the departments of Defense, Health and Human Services and State, among others, sending it to the Senate as one package.

More than half of the 47-member Democratic caucus has already vowed to oppose the package, many before Saturday’s shooting. And that number is growing as Democrats’ re-evaluate the legislation in the wake of the shooting and as they face pressure from House Democrats and their Senate colleagues, not to mention outside voices close to the party base. -Politico

Following the shooting, government shutdown odds surged on Polymarket, and are now at 76%.

Meanwhile, there's this...

You can't announce you are abolishing the Department of Education and then pressure conservatives to vote to fund it at the FULL Biden level WITH a Dem rider PREVENTING transfer of those funds. This is a game. https://t.co/lglQZjGwrB pic.twitter.com/8SofrNZdvq

— Daniel Horowitz (@RMConservative) January 23, 2026

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Investment Risk Is Underappreciated

There’s an old parable worth remembering, especially when it comes to investment risk and the markets. Once upon a time, there was a young shepherd who was tasked with watching over a flock of sheep. Eventually, bored and craving attention, he runs into the village shouting, “Wolf!” The villagers drop everything to help, only to find there’s no danger. He laughs, amused by everyone’s reaction. Later, he does it again. Once again, the villagers fall for it. Unfortunately, when a wolf does indeed appear, he cries for help. But not wanting to be fooled again, the villagers ignore him, and the flock is quickly slaughtered.

The lesson is simple: lie often enough, and no one believes you when it matters. In investing, we see this regularly with pundits and YouTubers who continually claim that market crashes and devastation are imminent as the bull market continues its climb. Eventually, those individuals get tuned out. It is the same with permabulls who see upside in every dip. When the real turning point comes, few are listening. That’s how risk blindsides the crowd.

The financial markets do one thing very well: lull investors into a false sense of security and complacency. Rallies stretch longer than logic allows, optimism builds on hope rather than data, and eventually risk becomes ignored, just as the boy who “cried wolf.” Today, investors are leaning hard into a bullish narrative, while ignoring key warning signs, from slowing earnings to inflated valuations. The market’s investment risk profile is rising, but few are listening.

Earnings and Profit Margin Expectations Are Very Optimistic

Recent quarters have delivered strong earnings surprises, but much of that upside came from aggressive cost-cutting and financial engineering rather than organic revenue growth. We can see this in the breakdown of earnings between accounting gimmicks and actual revenue growth.

As shown below, Wall Street is increasingly confident of earnings growth in 2026, with a faster growth rate than in any of the last several years.

However, consumer demand is softening, input costs are sticky, savings rates are declining, and employment remains weak. Furthermore, the post-pandemic pricing power that companies once enjoyed is now fading. That certainly isn’t the recipe for a rather exuberant surge in earnings, particularly when earnings are already very deviated above the historical growth trend.

Despite the obvious risk, investors are treating earnings as a certainty rather than a variable. However, that assumption breaks down quickly when growth slows and margins compress. Currently, many Wall Street analysts have been slow to lower earnings estimates. While that is typical, the investment risk to individuals is that by the time revisions hit the wires, markets have already adjusted. This lag creates a false sense of security. Therefore, if earnings begin to disappoint in the next few quarters, stocks priced for perfection will get punished.

The same analysis applies to corporate profit margins, which expanded massively during the stimulus-driven recovery. However, despite the reversal of that stimulus, Wall Street expects profit margins to surge to record levels in 2026. While during the pandemic, companies could raise prices while holding labor and input costs low, that cycle is reversing. Wage inflation remains sticky, and commodity costs (silver, copper, and other metals) are surging. With companies now competing more on price again, profit margins are an investment risk that shouldn’t be dismissed.

While the bullish consensus is, well, very bullish, companies can’t maintain wide margins if they can’t pass along cost pressures. Is this guaranteed to happen? No. However, investors betting on sustained profitability could be caught offside given that the markets are priced for perfection. Of all the investment risks, this is one of the clearest red flags being ignored right now.

The Reflation Narrative Is Built on Assumptions

As I discussed at the 2026 Investment Summit last weekend, the prevailing market narrative is simple: inflation is falling, the economy is growing, and central banks will continue to cut rates. In other words, 2026 is a year of “reflation.” However, none of these assumptions is guaranteed. Inflation is proving sticky, central banks are closer to pausing rate cuts, and, most importantly, economic growth is currently a function of one-off issues, as David Rosenberg recently noted.

Furthermore, the labor market remains tight, and consumer spending is uneven, with the top 10% of income earners accounting for nearly 50% of spending.

While markets tend to move ahead of policy, the investment risk arises when policy doesn’t match the forecast. If the reflation narrative takes hold and economic growth increases, inflation will likely rise. Such would put the Federal Reserve in a difficult position. If the Fed pauses, or worse, lifts rates as a response, the equity risk premium shrinks. That means valuations must adjust downward, and investors believing in a smooth landing and a quick pivot to rate cuts are leaning too far into hope.

Valuations Are Still Stretched

Of course, this ties back to the one investment risk that is well known, and currently ignored: Valuations. Valuations are the “boy who cried wolf.” For several years, Wall Street, YouTubers, and the media have all decried valuations as expensive, predicting an imminent correction. Unfortunately, valuations don’t work that way. Now, after several years of false alarms, investors feel valuations are “the boy who cried wolf.”

However, valuations are the one investment risk that should not be ignored, but understood. As discussed previously, valuations are a terrible timing indicator, but rather a measure of sentiment in the near term. The current trailing twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio sits at 26, near historic extremes. The Shiller CAPE ratio, which adjusts for inflation and smooths cycles over a decade, stands near 39. Forward P/E estimates for 2026 earnings are in the 23 range. By almost every measure, equities are priced at levels that historically limit future returns.

However, this is also the investment risk that investors need to prepare for. At current valuation levels, stocks don’t need a crisis to fall; they only need disappointment. If growth falls short, or if the Fed doesn’t deliver the cuts the market expects, equities face pressure. In other words, a “recession” is not the risk; it is just anything that is “less than perfect.”

The Risks Are Interconnected

Each of these risks, earnings, margins, the reflation narrative, and valuations feeds into the others. If earnings disappoint, margin assumptions fall apart. If inflation re-accelerates, the Fed stays hawkish, hurting valuations. These feedback loops increase the risk to investors, leaving them exposed to negative outcomes. With the market currently built on “narratives,” rather than fundamentals, when the story changes, price will follow. It’s not a matter of if sentiment will shift, but when. Therefore, positioning yourself ahead of that shift is critical.

There’s no magic bullet, but there are steps you can take to reduce risk without giving up opportunity.

1. Diversify across asset classes. That means holding stocks, bonds, and cash.

2. Tilt your equity exposure toward quality. Look for companies with strong balance sheets, consistent earnings, and pricing power.

3. Reduce exposure to over-valued names. Focus on valuation. History tells us that buying “cheap” protects capital in downturns.

4. Use defensive sectors like healthcare and consumer staples as ballast.

5. Review your position sizes. Don’t let a few names dominate your portfolio.

6. Lastly, raise some cash. Not as a market call, but as a tool to take advantage of lower prices later.

Most importantly, the key to navigating investment risks this year will be remaining data-driven. Ignore the headlines, disregard narratives, and watch real indicators like earnings revisions, margin trends, inflation reports, and Fed guidance. Don’t forecast. React to changes as they occur.

Risk doesn’t disappear. Investors ignore it at their peril. If you want to survive the next market shock, prepare now. Hope is not a strategy. Discipline is.

Bulls Remain In Control

This week’s price action reflected growing short-term volatility and technical signals that traders use to gauge potential risk and reward. After a politically driven selloff early in the week, market internals weakened before recovering mid-week. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) surged above 20.0 on Tuesday, then quickly retraced back toward 17.0 by Friday, highlighting swings in fear and complacency among traders. A high, then rapid drop in VIX suggests short-term traders may be reducing hedges after the headline shock passed, but volatility could remain elevated in the weeks ahead. As MarketWatch observed, “a recent spike in the fear gauge was swiftly erased after tariff threats were softened,” yet analysts warn that sustained volatility remains likely.

Breadth measures are also telling a mixed story. Major indexes like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed the week with only modest net movement, but many breadth indicators remain tepid. Recent market breadth data showed that a smaller proportion of S&P 500 stocks are making new highs even as the index approaches record levels, signaling a more narrow leadership. This pattern often precedes a larger corrective phase if broader participation does not improve, and recent analysis pointed to ongoing breadth weakness despite headline strength.

Rotation is evident beneath the surface. Small-cap stocks and cyclical sectors have outperformed as of late, pushing the Russell 2000 to a series of record highs and outperforming megacaps year-to-date. However, small-caps are now very overbought and extended, suggesting a near-term rotational risk is becoming more likely. Furthermore, this shift away from the largest, momentum tech names, which generate a significant share of earnings growth, to more economically and non-profitable companies is a risk if economic “reflation” fails to mature.

Such a rotation into small capitalization companies can be constructive, but only if it broadens rather than temporarily lifts market averages.

?? Key Catalysts Next Week

The market arrives at a turning point as January wraps up into a week that will define near-term risk appetite. Volatility remains elevated, and the narrative has shifted decisively from political headline swings to earnings and economic fundamentals. Last week’s tariff tensions triggered sharp moves across major tech names and drove the CBOE Volatility Index back above 20 before it retraced. Investors now turn to hard data and earnings from key bellwethers on whether the growth and inflation story supporting 2026 valuations can hold up. The backdrop is a market pricing in expectations of continued strength in consumer and business demand, but also significant sensitivity to guidance and Fed policy signals.

The Fed’s January meeting on the 28th looms large as a pivotal catalyst. With inflation still above target and short-term yields higher, any shift in language on rate cuts or growth expectations could move stocks and bonds sharply. Early-week economic reports, such as durable goods orders and consumer confidence, will set the tone, but it is the big tech earnings mid-week that have traders bracing for impact. Microsoft, Tesla, Apple, and Meta Platforms are reporting results that will deeply influence the narrative on sector rotation, growth sustainability, and the pricing of risk assets. Stocks with wide exposure to consumer demand, cloud and AI adoption, and discretionary spending will be heavily scrutinized, with guidance statements likely to matter more than quarterly beats or misses. Given the market’s recent sensitivity to earnings guidance, any signs of softening demand or caution in capex could quickly alter the technical landscape.

With the market closing at 6,915 on Friday, here are key technical support and resistance levels to watch going into next week:

Resistance Levels

• Primary resistance: 7,000 — First initial resistance following any attempt to break out to new all-time highs.

• Secondary resistance: 7,100 — First initial Fibonacci extension level.

• Extended resistance: 7,200 — Third Fibonacci extension level

Support Levels

• Primary support: 6,913 — 20-day moving average.

• Secondary support: 6,836 — 50-day moving average and recent lows.

• Key support: 6,378 — 100-day moving average

These levels are critical guides. A breakout to new all-time highs on strong volume could signal continuation of the broader uptrend, whereas a break below 6,836 would shift short-term momentum toward deeper correction risk. Traders should continue to monitor portfolio risk and rebalance as needed until the market provides better direction with a trend in one direction or the other.