CMR is the leading provider of funding and management support for small to medium-sized businesses and entrepreneurs 

Via The Cradle

Israel's leading outlets reacted with alarm on Wednesday after the Democratic Party captured both the US House of Representatives and the Senate in the midterm elections, warning that lawmakers opposed to US military aid to Israel are heading to Congress in growing numbers. 

At least 11 Democrats who have backed Palestinian rights and opposed US military support for Israel won seats across both chambers, swelling the ranks of Tel Aviv's critics in the US legislature. 

Channel 14, a network aligned with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, called the outcome a "major blow to Trump and Israel," expecting Democrats in charge of the foreign affairs, defense, and appropriations committees to put US weapons sales and deliveries to Israel under a far harsher spotlight. 

Yedioth Ahronoth branded the vote a "historic blue tsunami" and a humiliating defeat for US President Donald Trump, noting that Democrats broke through in districts once considered safely Republican, and are now positioned to obstruct legislation favorable to Israel. 

The Jerusalem Post blamed the sweeping Republican loss chiefly on the US-Israeli war on Iran, launched on February 28, warning that the rise of Israel’s critics in Washington "represents a shift that Israel cannot afford to ignore."

Maariv singled out the state of Maine, where Democrat Troy Jackson ousted Senator Susan Collins, an Israel ally in office since 1997, on a platform of ending US military aid to Tel Aviv, calling the wider Democratic victory a sign of the party’s shifting balance on Israel.

Times of Isreal/Reuters headline: After midterms, opposition leaders accuse Netanyahu of harming relationship with US

Haaretz pointed to the Michigan Senate win of progressive Democrat Abdul el-Sayed, the chamber’s first Muslim member, over AIPAC-backed Republican Mike Rogers as proof that fierce opposition to Israel no longer hinders candidates but in fact strengthens their standing with the US public.

AIPAC failed to stop El-Sayed despite pouring more than $30 million into Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary, the most it has ever spent on a single race, and later directing up to $9 million to a super PAC backing Rogers, part of a midterm spending push that topped $100 million across its PAC and super PAC, according to Sludge.

Vice President JD Vance's odds of winning the 2028 Republican nomination tumbled overnight as Democrats absolutely torched Republicans in Tuesday's midterms, flipping both the House and the Senate. On Polymarket, Vance slid from about 37% to 31.4%, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis rocketed from around 3% to 15.5%, in a market that has drawn more than $726 million in bets.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Vance's closest rival in the polls, barely moved at 19.2%, roughly where he sat before polls closed. Kalshi shows the same shuffle: Vance at 32% and Rubio at 22%, both down slightly, while DeSantis is up 14 points to 19%.

The selloff hit Tuesday night as results rolled in, hours before Vance offered his own autopsy on X Wednesday morning. "The reason we lost is the war," he wrote, as we reported earlier. "If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so."

One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.

— JD Vance (@JDVance) November 4, 2026

Before the war began, Vance was the White House official most opposed to a full-scale war with Iran, the New York Times reported in April. Distance or not, he's the sitting vice president of an administration that just lost both chambers of Congress.

Florida was one of the GOP's bright spots: Rep. Byron Donalds will succeed the term-limited DeSantis as governor, while Democrats flipped governor's mansions in Georgia and Texas. Vance cited the state himself, writing that Florida's electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, "just a couple points worse than 2024."

Vance's lead had already shrunk from the start of the year. A New York Times/Siena poll of 850 likely GOP primary voters, taken Oct. 12 to 19, had him at 33% to Rubio's 23%, with 26% undecided or declining to answer. In February, Emerson had Vance crushing Rubio 52% to 20%; by May, the two were essentially tied at 36% to 35%.

Neither man has declared, and Rubio has said he would defer to Vance. Vance has said he would talk over a 2028 run with his wife after the midterms - which ended Tuesday.

Democrats are celebrating one of their biggest midterm victories in decades, but their historic triumph could come with a nasty political hangover.

The party's sweeping gains in Tuesday's elections delivered a major rebuke to President Donald Trump, as voter frustration over the Iran war, soaring gas prices and the cost of living fueled a nationwide Democratic surge.

However, the New York Post's Isaac Schorr argued in an op-ed that Democrats' biggest victory could quickly become their next political headache.

The problem is simple: Trump isn't going anywhere.

Schorr argues that even with Congress under Democratic control, Trump's veto power could prevent the party from delivering on its legislative agenda:

"With President Donald Trump in the White House and his veto pen in hand, they won't be able to push through any of their major agenda items"

However, there is another problem, according to Schorr:

"His caucus won't let him work with Trump during his waning days in the White House"

Schorr suggests Democrats could negotiate deals on energy production, immigration enforcement and government spending. Instead, the columnist predicts the party will prioritize confrontation:

"Alas, instead it'll be all talk and no work on behalf of their constituents."

Schorr also warned that Democrats could revive divisive battles over immigration, spending, climate policy and transgender participation in women's sports, while potentially pursuing another impeachment of Trump.

Schorr closed with a warning that could prove prescient:

"But they're equally likely to give themselves a years-long hangover - by reminding Americans of who they really are."

Republicans suffered a string of major Senate defeats in states long considered Republican strongholds. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico toppled Ken Paxton, while Adam Hamilton ousted Sen. Roger Marshall in Kansas. Moreover, the biggest shock came in South Carolina, where Annie Andrews defeated Sen. Darline Graham, the sister of the late Lindsey Graham.

Democrats also flipped House districts across the country, securing control of both chambers of Congress.

LAWYER UP.

— Congressman Robert Garcia (@RepRobertGarcia) November 4, 2026

Yet, in surprising twist that could complicate Schorr's argument, Trump revealed last night that he has already spoke with Democrat leaders and expressed a willingness to work together.

"Well, we're going to work with the Democrats to make sure things go well for our country. Very important. They've already called and they want to work with," Trump told POLITICO's Dasha Burns. "[I] have the right to veto everything, but I don't want to be just sitting there for two years vetoing everything. They want to see things happen, too."

However, Democrats now have the power to investigate the Trump administration and block legislation, and they're already talking tough. Rep. Robert Garcia (D-CA) wasted no time sending Trump and his Republican allies a blunt two-word warning: "Lawyer up."

Technically there's still supposed to be a fragile (and not infrequently violated) Lebanon truce in effect.

But fighting has been on the uptick in southern Lebanon of late, as encroaching Israeli forces target suspected Hezbollah hideouts and individuals. Wednesay saw the IDF launch a deadly drone strike on the Lebanese town of Qabrikha, which it said involved targeting "suspects" who were "observing" Isreali forces inside Lebanon.

"Earlier today (Wednesday), the [army] struck two suspects who were observing … forces in the area of Qabrikha, located outside the security zone in southern Lebanon," the army said.

"The strike was carried out to eliminate the threat to forces operating in the security zone," it added, but then further claimed Israel "remains committed to the agreement between Israel and Lebanon."

However, Lebanese and locals are outraged that a motorcyclist was simply taken out while traversing roads in his own country. This is amid an ongoing IDF occupation, well inside Lebanese territory.

Lebanese health authorties later confirmed one person was killed and another wounded, the former said to be a medical worker, and the latter said to be a local photojournalist. The incident is reported to be a first major Israeli military action in weeks.

Israeli media's account: Israeli drone strikes two suspects on a motorcycle in southern Lebanon after they allegedly approached troops and posed an immediate threat; at least one killed, identified in local reports as a medical worker affiliated with the Amal movement allied with Hezbollah

In the meantime, some top Lebanese officials are warning Hezbollah against escalation. The country's prime minister Nawaf Salam is urgently warning the group against plunging the country into a new war.

Looming large in the background is also the potential that the Iran war could resume at any moment, potentially involving Israel once again as well. “Faced with the risks of renewed war in the region, I renew my warning of the dangers of dragging Lebanon into a new senseless adventure in service of outside interests," Salam said. According to more:

Without mentioning Hezbollah, though the reference was clear, he condemned the “exorbitant price in human lives, livelihoods, and destroyed homes” already paid by the Lebanese, especially those in the South, who should have the right to “live in security and build their future away from the cycle of wars, forced displacements, and destruction.”

The prime minister then reiterated that protecting Lebanon is “a national responsibility,” in contrast to Hezbollah’s claim to lead the “resistance” against Israel, and emphasized the importance of “putting Lebanon’s higher interest” above all other considerations. “The decision of war and peace is the exclusive domain of the state and its constitutional institutions,” he insisted.

"We do not accept the country again becoming a theatre for the conflict of others," Salam added, emphasizing that Lebanon had "already paid a heavy price."

Late Wednesday into overnight hours: Reports of intense Israeli strikes taking place across southern Lebanon:

Lebanese politicians and the people remain deeply divided on Hezollah - which does have a widespread and popular support base both in Lebanon and the broader region.

The group, which has support from Iran, is by far the most well-armed force in Lebanon, and has long been more powerful than even the Lebanese national army. Ironically this is in part due to US sanctions on Lebanon's military which greatly throttles the type and amount of military equipment it can receive from abroad.

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice,

• Asia’s crude imports have nearly recovered to pre-war levels, reaching 26.39 million bpd in October, while refined fuel imports remain 10% below pre-war volumes.
• Diesel shortages persist despite recovering crude flows, as damaged Middle Eastern refineries, Russian supply disruptions and reduced fuel shipments keep refining margins elevated.
• The global diesel crunch could extend well into 2027, with deferred refinery maintenance and uncertain Chinese exports threatening to prolong supply shortages.

While crude oil imports in Asia have reached pre-war levels, imports of refined products remain weak as gasoline and diesel imports from the Middle East have crashed amid reduced refining capacity.

Asia's oil import story these days is a reflection of the global oil markets - crude oil availability has significantly increased since the early summer lows and flows out of the Middle East have largely recovered, but supply of gasoline, and especially diesel, has sharply dropped since the Iran war began at the end of February.

Reduced refinery runs in the Middle East, with some refineries still out following Iranian strikes in the early days of the war, have combined with lower refined product flows through the Strait of Hormuz, due to the much more dangerous ship-to-ship transfers of highly inflammable fuels, to slash supply to the market.

Russia's fuel crunch due to Ukrainian strikes on refineries and the lack of Russian diesel exports have compounded the global diesel problem, sending refining margins and retail prices to record highs in the third quarter of the year.

The crunch is extending into the fourth quarter, and could last well into 2027, analysts say, as many refineries will have to undergo in the spring long overdue maintenance that has been deferred from this year to maximize production.

In this context, crude and product imports in Asia, the world's biggest oil-importing region, are telling of the state of the global oil market.

A Tale of Two Markets

Asia's crude oil imports jumped to 26.39 million barrels per day (bpd) in October, up from 24.24 million bpd the month prior, per data by Kpler cited by Reuters' Asia Commodities and Energy Columnist Clyde Russell.

The import levels are estimated at nearly par with the three-month average of 27 million bpd before the Iran war, and up by 39% compared to the lowest level during the conflict so far of 19 million bpd in April, according to the data.

Asia's crude imports that have moved through the Strait of Hormuz soared to 7.4 million bpd in October, compared to just 1.6 million bpd in April. Flows through Hormuz en route to Asia are still lagging the pre-war levels of about 13 million bpd, but supply has jumped from Saudi Arabia's Red Sea port of Yanbu. In recent months, Asian refiners have also materially raised crude oil imports from Russia and the Americas to offset the supply lost at the Strait of Hormuz.

In contrast, Asia's light and middle distillate imports, estimated at about 6.15 million bpd in October by Kpler, were still 10% below pre-war levels. Imports from the Middle East alone remain 18.4% below pre-war volumes, although Asia's total fuel imports rose from September on the back of increased supply from the Americas and Africa.

Diesel Crunch

Gasoline and especially diesel supply remains more restricted than crude oil flows. Since the summer, diesel has been the most distressed barrel in the oil market and soaring refining margins and wholesale and retail prices globally are reflecting this constraint.

Despite the recovered crude flows, refineries outside the Middle East and Russia cannot offset the lost capacity, at a time when diesel and other middle distillate demand is rising going into the northern hemisphere winter.

China's near-term export policies will be key for Asia's regional supply in the fourth quarter, analysts say.

"China remains the main Asian uncertainty. October's clean-product export plan was around 500 kt below September's, while November diesel and jet export volumes remain unclear," Abhishek Kumar, senior oil market analyst at Sparta Commodities, said last week.

"Additional Chinese cargoes could loosen Asian balances, but the market needs greater clarity on approvals and actual loadings."

For global supply, the crunch is likely to extend until the middle of 2027, investment banks and the International Energy Agency (IEA) have warned.

Global seaborne gasoil and diesel exports have contracted sharply since the Middle East crisis began, the IEA said in its latest Oil Market Report for October.

Reduced refinery output lowered exports to an average 4.7 million barrels per day over the first nine months of 2026, which was 10% below the same period last year, or a drop of 700,000 bpd, the agency noted.

Even if refinery output rose early next year, the diesel and gasoil market balance "will remain tight well into 2027 and is dependent on a recovery of product supply from the Middle East," the IEA said.

"Failing this, further demand reductions and the heavy economic costs these will entail may be needed to balance markets."

Global fuel markets are set to remain tight until at least the middle of next year as the second quarter of 2027 will see unusually high planned maintenance that refiners have deferred from this year, Morgan Stanley said last month.

The expected drop in refinery utilization in the second quarter of next year would be two and a half times the usual capacity taken offline by spring maintenance globally, and is more than the capacity in the Middle East and Russia that's currently offline, according to Morgan Stanley's analysts.