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Tue, 22 Sep 2026 08:15:00 +0000 US Views Of Islam Have Deteriorated In Past 25 Years
US Views Of Islam Have Deteriorated In Past 25 Years
The view that Islam is more likely to encourage violence than other religions is more widespread in the United States today than when Read more.....
US Views Of Islam Have Deteriorated In Past 25 Years
The view that Islam is more likely to encourage violence than other religions is more widespread in the United States today than when Pew Research Center first asked Americans this question in March of 2002, around six months after the catastrophic events of the 9/11 terrorist attacks orchestrated by Al-Qaeda Islamists.
As Statista's Katharina Buchholz reports , in January, 51 percent of surveyed American adults said Islam was more likely to encourage violence, split between 76 percent of Republicans or Republican leaners and 29 percent of Democrats or Democratic leaners.
Shortly after the attacks that claimed the lives of almost 3,000 people, these number had still stood at an average of 25 percent, with both Republicans and Democrats answering more similarly.
You will find more infographics at Statista
As soon as Sept. 17, 2001, president at the time, George W. Bush, visited the Islamic Center of Washington, D.C. and was quoted saying "Islam is peace" , showcasing how different sentiments were at the time, even among Republicans.
But 9/11 was also a watershed moment for the United States and the world as a whole, eroding trust in a stable world order and a positive future.
The number published by Pew could be interpreted so that the wars that followed in Afghanistan and Iraq did more damage to the relationship between the United States and the religion of Islam that 9/11 immediately did. The survey answers over time show how political polarization, affecting many if not most topics, has progressed in the United States in the past decades.
Pew Research Center also found that around 40 percent of U.S. adults said Muslims had a negative impact on the country, while another 40 percent said their impact was neutral and 17 percent thought it was positive.
Between the years 2000 and 2020, the number of mosques in the United States had grown from around 1,200 to 2,800 while the number of Muslims living in the U.S. also more than doubled to 5.5 million.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 09/22/2026 - 04:15 Close
Tue, 22 Sep 2026 07:30:00 +0000 Donald Rumsfeld's New Europe Is Waiting For Its Second Act
Donald Rumsfeld's New Europe Is Waiting For Its Second Act
Donald Rumsfeld's New Europe Is Waiting For Its Second Act
Authored by José Niño via The Libertarian Institute
On January 22, 2003, Donald Rumsfeld stepped behind the podium at the Foreign Press Center in Washington and, with one answer to a Dutch public television reporter, redrew the map of Europe. The reporter wanted to know why so many Europeans trusted Saddam Hussein more than then-President George W. Bush. The defense secretary fired back with words the Pentagon transcript preserved in full:
"Now, you’re thinking of Europe as Germany and France. I don’t. I think that’s old Europe. If you look at the entire NATO Europe today, the center of gravity is shifting to the east. And there are a lot of new members ."
Rumsfeld kept going. “Germany has been a problem, and France has been a problem.” When the reporter cited public opinion, he refused to budge. “But you look at vast numbers of other countries in Europe. They’re not with France and Germany on this, they’re with the United States.”
Berlin and Paris erupted in response. The transcript shows Rumsfeld never spoke the words “new Europe,” yet headlines supplied them within hours , and Radio Free Europe conceded that his underlying point about a split continent held up. A year later in Munich, he told reporters he felt too old for regretting his comments at the time.
The Iraq showdown gave the phrase its teeth. France and Germany, backed by Russia, wanted inspectors to keep working, and Paris threatened to veto a second war resolution at the United Nations . On January 30, 2003, the leaders of Britain, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Denmark, Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic answered with the “Letter of Eight,” a joint commentary urging unity against Baghdad. Six days later, foreign ministers from the Vilnius Ten, a bloc stretching from Albania to the Baltics, endorsed what they called Secretary of State Colin Powell’s “compelling evidence” and demanded “a united response from the community of democracies.”
Washington repaid the loyalty . On May 8, 2003, the Senate voted 96 to 0 to admit Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia while their foreign ministers watched from the balcony. The Senate’s own ratification resolution cited their February 5 statement on Iraq. All seven entered NATO in 2004, bringing three former Soviet republics into the alliance for the first time .
Troops trailed the rhetoric. On August 16, 2004, the Bush White House announced a posture overhaul that would bring home “about 60,000 to 70,000 uniformed personnel” over a decade and ship heavy Cold War forces out of Germany . Romania signed a defense cooperation agreement in 2005, and Bulgaria followed in 2006, opening Mihail Kogalniceanu, Novo Selo, and Bezmer to rotating American units. At Bucharest in 2008, Bush pressed allies to declare that Ukraine and Georgia “will become members of NATO.” Russia later went to war with Georgia that August .
Every president since has pushed the line east. Barack Obama canceled Bush’s Polish interceptor plan in 2009 but substituted a phased shield whose Romanian base at Deveselu went operational in May 2016. After Crimea joined the Russian Federation, NATO stationed four multinational battlegroups in the Baltic states and Poland, with Americans leading the Polish unit. Donald Trump’s first administration quit the INF Treaty in August 2019, and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo declared that “Russia is solely responsible for the treaty’s demise.” A 2020 pact with Warsaw produced a forward headquarters for V Corps in Poznan.
President Joe Biden hardened the frontier further . After February 2022, American forces in Europe swelled to roughly 100,000, congressional researchers noted. The Army opened its first permanent garrison in Poland in March 2023, and NATO declared the Aegis Ashore interceptor site at Redzikowo mission ready in July 2024.
Esteemed diplomat George Kennan saw where this road led. Reacting in 1998 to the first round of enlargement, the father of containment told Thomas Friedman, “I think it is the beginning of a new cold war. I think the Russians will gradually react quite adversely and it will affect their policies. I think it is a tragic mistake. There was no reason for this whatsoever. No one was threatening anybody else,” as The American Conservative recounted.
Donald Trump’s second term scrambled the script. In October 2025, the Pentagon sent a 101st Airborne brigade home from Romania without a replacement, leaving about 1,000 Americans in the country. U.S. Army Europe and Africa insisted the move was “not an American withdrawal from Europe or a signal of lessened commitment to NATO and Article 5” but “a positive sign of increased European capability and responsibility.” Armed Services Chairmen Senator Roger Wicker (R-MS) and Rep. Mike Rogers (R-AL) fired back that the decision “appears uncoordinated and directly at odds with the President’s strategy.”
Then Trump feuded with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz over the Iran war. On May 1, 2026, Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell announced , “The Secretary of War has ordered the withdrawal of approximately 5,000 troops from Germany.” Defense officials told CBS the missile battalion slated for Germany would go elsewhere. Three weeks later, Trump rewarded Warsaw instead. “Based on the successful Election of the now President of Poland, Karol Nawrocki, who I was proud to Endorse, and our relationship with him, I am pleased to announce that the United States will be sending an additional 5,000 Troops to Poland,” he wrote. Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski suggested the move would simply hold American numbers near previous levels.
Punish old Europe, reward new Europe. Rumsfeld would recognize the playbook .
Ukraine will decide how far that playbook runs. In July 2026, Thomas Graham of the Council on Foreign Relations outlined a plausible settlement built on a ceasefire along the front, Western security ties for Kiev without NATO membership, and an end to further eastward enlargement, terms Moscow could market as victory. Graham warned against assuming the tide favors Kiev. Bloomberg sources reported that Vladimir Putin wants the rest of Donbas before serious talks, and envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner left Moscow in September without a breakthrough.
Suppose Russia keeps its conquests at a ruinous price. A pyrrhic win of that kind would shut NATO’s door to new members, and Washington’s national security class would likely respond as it did in 2003, by pouring money and manpower into the eastern allies it already has . The scaffolding survives every Trump trim. Allies have pledged 5% of GDP on defense by 2035, and a CRS report counted about 86,000 U.S. personnel in European NATO countries as of March 2026, with Congress requiring certification before numbers fall below 76,000.
Once Trump exits, the hawks who blasted his Romania cut will still hold the blueprints and the bases . They may well revive Rumsfeld’s New Europe as a permanent front against Moscow, anchored in Poland, Romania, and the Baltics. Kennan warned that such a posture breeds the hostility it claims to deter. Americans deserve a debate before Washington signs them up for another generation of geopolitical tension with the Russian Bear.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 09/22/2026 - 03:30 Close
Tue, 22 Sep 2026 06:45:00 +0000 Houthis Threaten Strikes On Egypt, Turkey, Pakistan Interests As Yemen Intervention Looms
Houthis Threaten Strikes On Egypt, Turkey, Pakistan Interests As Yemen Intervention Looms
Houthi officials have put Egypt, Turkey, and Pakistan on notice amid the ongoing Saudi-Yemen conflict, and as Riyadh urges pa
Read more.....
Houthis Threaten Strikes On Egypt, Turkey, Pakistan Interests As Yemen Intervention Looms
Houthi officials have put Egypt, Turkey, and Pakistan on notice amid the ongoing Saudi-Yemen conflict, and as Riyadh urges partners to assist militarily against the Ansar Allah movement. Iran's state Nour News , which is affiliated with the country's Supreme National Security Council, has issued a report saying the three Saudi allies "will likely be targeted in the next stages"
- per a Houthi official.
The Houthi official warned that "The targeting of Iran by the enemies will not be limited to the country's borders and, according to him, the next efforts will be to target Egypt, Turkey and Pakistan ."
Source: SPA Already the Houthis have launched several attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities, also including fuel depots next to Riyadh's international airport. The Houthis subsequently confirmed sending ballistic missiles on the capital, in a first of the war. This happened Friday night into Saturday.
According to more from the Iranian media report :
Referring to the position of these three countries in the Islamic world, he said that their power and influence could be an obstacle to the Zionist regime's plans. The Ansarullah official stated that this plan is based on pushing Egypt, Turkey, and Pakistan towards wars and internal conflicts, and that Saudi Arabia plays a role in this process. According to him, such a situation could lead to the erosion of capabilities, weakening, and disintegration of the internal social fabric of these countries
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was just in Cairo meeting with Egyptian leader Abdel Fattah El-Sisi. The visit came just in the wake of an Iranian-backed militia attack on the key Saudi East-West pipeline , which one US official described as having been launched from Iraq.
A big focus of the MbS-Sisi meeting was regional security. The Saudis have been asking all regional allies for support at a moment the internationally recognized Sanaa government is rapidly losing ground to the Houthis.
Washington has appeared to shrug its shoulders, staying on the sidelines thus far. President Trump was reported ready to pull the trigger against the Houthis but reportedly TACO'd by close of the weekend .
But there's even greater pressure on the Pakistanis and Turks to take action, given the recently signed Mecca Defense Pact. We featured the following commentary last week :
Turkey's new commitments to Saudi Arabia under the Mecca defence pact could increase the risk of Ankara being drawn into a confrontation with Yemen's Houthis, a development that could have significant consequences for Turkish supply lines to the Horn of Africa. Although Turkey has yet to ratify the pact, expected in October , continued Houthi attacks against Saudi Arabia, and Ankara’s recent participation in the Saudi-led Multinational Maritime Defense Alliance make some form of confrontation possible .
Another big, obvious risk includes the whole thing spinning out into a full-on regional war, which would likely further fuel US-Iran confrontation, and possibly bring in the Israelis.
Bigger conflict would also likely close Red Sea shipping. The Houthis have so far only declared the Bab Al-Mandab Strait off limits to Saudi and Israeli-linked ships. But the fear is that any moment the group could begin assaults on all international shipping, akin to the ongoing crisis in the Strait of Hormuz .
The Iranians and Houthis know they hold this card, and are likely intentionally slow-playing their leverage, but ready to pull the trigger on the next potential round of escalation with the US-Saudi-Israeli axis.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 09/22/2026 - 02:45 Close
Tue, 22 Sep 2026 06:00:00 +0000 Germany's Debt King Merz Gets a Greek Lesson in Fiscal Policy
Germany's Debt King Merz Gets a Greek Lesson in Fiscal Policy
Submitted by Thomas Kolbe
Revenge is sweet. It tastes all the sweeter the longer one has had to wait for it to arrive, and the deeper the pain of the hum
Read more.....
Germany's Debt King Merz Gets a Greek Lesson in Fiscal Policy
Submitted by Thomas Kolbe
Revenge is sweet. It tastes all the sweeter the longer one has had to wait for it to arrive, and the deeper the pain of the humiliation that preceded it.
Some may still have the images of the great debt crisis of a decade and a half ago before their eyes: German politicians, led by then-Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble, traveled to Athens at regular intervals to make sure everything was in order . Greece, the supposed sinner of the debt crisis, had gone off the rails, accumulated too much debt and was quickly made the scapegoat for the financial-market and sovereign-debt crisis. It was convenient - because it diverted attention from Germany’s own failures.
That someone had apparently left a score to settle was made clear by Greek Finance Minister Kyriakos Pierrakakis in an interview with Handelsblatt on Monday . When the conversation turned to the debt question, Pierrakakis, who also serves as president of the Eurogroup, noted that reforms in fiscal policy might be painful at first, but would ultimately pay off politically and economically.
The man is right. And Berlin should listen to him, because the debt club around Friedrich Merz is knowingly driving the budget into the wall with new borrowing of more than 5 percent next year.
It really does sound like an open score to settle when the Greek generously praises Germany’s economic potential in flowery language while at the same time noting that the country is not untouchable: “Germany is the industrial locomotive of Europe” — Pierrakakis is mercilessly putting his finger on the wound. For he cannot have failed to notice how rapidly the country is economically destroying itself, how quickly it is deindustrializing in the grip of climate fanaticism and mutating from a nation of tinkerers and engineers into an open-air institution for moralists and degrowth ideologues.
While Germany has embarked on the road to second-class status, Greece is gradually growing out of its permanent crisis. The problem with the local economy remains the euro: The Greeks actually need a significantly devalued currency in order to compete more effectively on international markets. After the introduction of the euro and the cheaper borrowing costs made possible by Germany’s credit anchor, the country slipped into an artificial debt trap — the land of spendthrifts and pleasure-seekers, according to the ugly narrative.
German banks and insurers had invested as much as 45 billion euros in Greek bonds at the time — money for which German taxpayers ultimately had to foot the bill. Distorted interest rates caused by the introduction of the euro and the euro debt club’s highly heterogeneous economies were bound to produce such a disaster — and the next debacle is already taking shape: Debt is rising everywhere, while interest rates are climbing. The bond market is responding by selling government bonds, thereby driving up the cost of servicing debt through higher interest rates.
Were Greece’s efforts toward austerity and thrift ultimately in vain?
Whether the moment of the great debt reckoning has now arrived is rather unlikely — there is still plenty of room to push the sovereign-debt crisis to the point of rupture. Nevertheless, much is reminiscent of the period 15 years ago, when the bond market reacted in a similar way and the U.S. housing crisis spread through the market mechanism to the fragile European sovereign-bond markets. Greece, the EU’s smallest economy with the highest level of government debt, was hit first before the dominoes began to fall.
Schäuble’s Greek counterpart at the time was Giannis Varoufakis: an intellectual, committed socialist who stood up to the Teutons and the Troika of the European Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the European Commission — until his party Syriza and Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras were brought to their knees.
The consequence: austerity policy . Massive pension cuts, hospital closures — the shrinking of the welfare state. The Greeks experienced their social-policy Waterloo and have since managed to reduce their government debt ratio from the peak of the crisis, around 180 percent, to 146 percent.
Chapeau! The Greeks deserve every bit of respect in the face of the lax fiscal policies all around them — whether in Italy, Germany, France or Spain. Athens is staying the course, voting conservatively and struggling through this painful period of adjustment.
In the Handelsblatt interview, Pierrakakis becomes something of a fiscal-policy armchair philosopher: The cost of doing nothing, he says, is ultimately higher for everyone than the cost of reforms. That may be true. But the lesson contains a kernel of truth that will not move the German governing coalition even a millimeter toward the mountain of necessary reforms growing larger by the day.
Because consolidating this year’s 180-billion-euro deficit-ridden chaos budget would imply corresponding spending cuts. Tax increases would strangle the economy — Germany would have to begin with remigration, end development aid, reform the welfare state and seriously consider what to do about the war with Russia and the massive military buildup it entails.
The pain of austerity is still ahead for the Germans. Whether it is brought about through the bond market or through the harsh cuts of a reform government makes no difference.
All in all, it was a memorable interview because it describes Germany’s changing era from the perspective of the underdog. Above all, Pierrakakis’ remark that Germany has economic potential should resonate for a long time in its ironic sharpness. Because the country has overstretched its public finances and now lives on credit — just as the Greeks once did.
* * *
About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a graduate economist, has worked for or over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 09/22/2026 - 02:00 Close
Tue, 22 Sep 2026 03:25:00 +0000 The Hunger Margin: How Intel Analysts Learned To Measure The End Of Abundance
The Hunger Margin: How Intel Analysts Learned To Measure The End Of Abundance
The Hunger Margin: How Intel Analysts Learned To Measure The End Of Abundance
Authored by Milan Adams via Preppgroup ,
The shift happened gradually, then all at once.
By late 2024, analysts at Langley and Fort Meade who had spent careers tracking terrorist cells and nuclear programs found themselves redirected to spreadsheets showing fertilizer shipments, satellite passes over Ukrainian wheat fields, and soil moisture readings from the Sahel. Nobody had issued a memo announcing the change.
It simply became obvious that agricultural data had become national security data, and that the old distinctions between threats to the state and threats to the food supply had collapsed into a single, uncomfortable reality.
The numbers they confronted were not abstract. 266 million people facing crisis-level hunger or worse - not "food insecurity" as bureaucrats define it, the anxiety of choosing between rent and groceries, but the physiological reality of bodies consuming muscle tissue to keep hearts beating. 1.9 million perched on the absolute edge of famine, the IPC Phase 5 designation that translates, in plain language, to mass death. These figures accumulated across six consecutive years of escalating hunger, each emergency layering atop the last until the system began to resemble geological strata of suffering.
Then came the confirmations that turned statistical tragedy into historical rupture. In 2025, for the first time in the twenty-first century, two simultaneous famines achieved formal verification. Gaza and Sudan - regions separated by thousands of miles but united in the mechanics of collapse - entered what the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification calls "catastrophic" conditions. This means households have exhausted every coping mechanism. Assets sold. Wild foods consumed. Migration attempted, often failed. The stage before mortality curves spike.
Intelligence agencies do not typically concern themselves with crop yields. Their mandate runs toward adversaries with intentions and capabilities: states, terrorist organizations, criminal networks. But by early 2025, the distinction between traditional security threats and agricultural data had dissolved. The Director of National Intelligence's Annual Threat Assessment, typically reserved for cyber warfare and nuclear proliferation, dedicated unprecedented space to "food system fragility" as a destabilizing force with implications exceeding regional conflicts.
The logic was straightforward, once you looked at it. Civilizations do not tolerate starvation passively. The 2011 Arab Spring erupted partly from wheat price spikes. The Syrian civil war's origins traced partially to drought-induced rural migration overwhelming urban infrastructure. When 266 million people face acute food insecurity, the number of potential failed states multiplies. Analysts began modeling scenarios where famine drove migration flows that overwhelmed border security, where desperate populations radicalized or simply marched, where governments fell and weapons stockpiles dispersed into anarchic spaces.
The assessments grew darker as 2025 progressed. Satellite imagery revealed anomalies first. Ukrainian wheat fields showed reduced planting density despite marginal territorial gains. Argentine growing regions displayed parched soil patterns invisible from ground level but unmistakable from orbit. The Sahel's marginal agricultural zones retreated further as fertilizer shipments - delayed by shipping disruptions and currency collapses - simply never arrived. Each failed planting season represented a debt against future harvests that could not be repaid.
The fertilizer crisis provided the mechanism for systemic failure. Nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium - the triad of industrial agriculture - had experienced price trajectories that defied market correction. Urea prices in the Middle East remained between seventy-five and one hundred eight percent above pre-conflict baselines. Natural gas, the feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer production, had grown volatile. Farmers in developing regions faced a brutal choice: purchase reduced quantities of fertilizer, or abandon planting entirely. Many chose reduction, gambling that diminished yields exceeded no yields at all.
Soil chemistry does not negotiate. The Council on Foreign Relations noted what agronomists understood but policymakers ignored: soil holds phosphate reserves sufficient to absorb one season of deprivation, perhaps two. Beyond that, yield depression accelerates non-linearly. Reduced nitrogen application could compress yields for certain crops by fifty percent within a single growing season. The human stomach makes no distinction between geopolitical causes and agricultural effects. It registers only absence.
Humanitarian funding collapsed precisely when requirements peaked. The $37 billion allocated globally for food assistance in 2024 - a figure already insufficient - plummeted to $21 billion in 2025 as donor fatigue intersected with domestic economic pressures in wealthy nations. The World Food Programme, which had prevented famines through sheer logistical determination in previous decades, found itself choosing which populations to abandon. The $16.9 billion required to address the most acute crises represented less than three days of global military expenditure, yet remained unattainable.
Grain reserves - the buffer against harvest failure that civilization has maintained since Pharaoh's dreams - had eroded to levels unseen in decades. Global wheat ending stocks for 2024/25 reached 257 million metric tons, a nine-year low and declining. Corn stocks followed similar trajectories. The stock-to-use ratio, indicating how many days of consumption existing reserves could cover, had compressed dangerously. Previous generations maintained reserves sufficient for multiple growing seasons. Contemporary just-in-time agriculture had reduced this margin to months, then weeks.
The geography of vulnerability concentrated in patterns that analysts could map but not prevent. Six nations faced the highest risk of famine or catastrophic hunger as 2025 closed: Sudan, Palestine, South Sudan, Mali, Haiti, Yemen. These were not accidents of weather or bad policy alone. They represented the intersection of conflict, climate stress, and economic collapse - the triad that assessments identified as the new normal. Sudan's conflict destroyed not just this season's harvest but the seed stock and agricultural infrastructure required for future planting. Gaza's siege compressed centuries of agricultural decline into months. Haiti's gangs controlled food distribution as effectively as any medieval siege.
Climate data completed the picture. The 2024-2025 El Niño event disrupted monsoon patterns across South Asia and East Africa. Drought in the Horn of Africa persisted into its sixth year in some regions, exhausting pastoralist strategies developed over millennia. Meanwhile, flash floods destroyed standing crops in Pakistan, Brazil, Libya. The weather had become not merely unpredictable but actively hostile, each season bringing some new permutation of extremity that agricultural systems - optimized for twentieth-century climate stability - could not absorb.
Analysts began employing vocabulary previously reserved for nuclear scenarios. "Cascading failures." "Systemic risk." "Irreversible tipping points." The food system they observed had evolved for efficiency and profit margins, not resilience. Global supply chains assumed continuous functionality of shipping lanes, stable energy prices, peaceful trade routes. When these assumptions failed simultaneously, as they did in 2024-2025, the system lacked redundancy. There was no backup plan beyond hoping that next year's harvest would compensate.
The psychological impact within the intelligence community itself proved noteworthy. Analysts accustomed to studying deliberate threats - enemy actions, terrorist plots, state aggression - confronted a different category of horror: structural inevitability. No amount of drone strikes could restore soil nutrients. No sanctions could compel rain. The famine approaching was not an attack to be thwarted but a physical process to be witnessed, documented, mitigated at the margins.
By mid-2025, classified briefings included projections that would have seemed fantastical five years earlier. Scenarios where multiple breadbasket regions experienced simultaneous harvest failures. Models of migration flows numbering tens of millions. Assessments of which governments could withstand food price spikes of three hundred percent, five hundred percent, a thousand percent. The answers were not reassuring. Modern states rest upon implicit contracts wherein populations accept governance in exchange for basic provisioning. When that provisioning fails, legitimacy evaporates faster than grain silos empty.
Agricultural scientists had warned for decades. The "Green Revolution" that fed billions relied on fossil fuel inputs, aquifer depletion, crop genetic uniformity that maximized yield while minimizing resilience. Each season of intensive cultivation mined soil organic matter that required centuries to accumulate. Each monoculture planting expanded territory available to pests and pathogens. The system worked until it didn't. By 2025, the "didn't" had arrived.
What distinguishes the current crisis from historical famines is not the suffering - human beings have starved in uncountable millions throughout history - but the impossibility of remedy. The 1845 Irish Potato Famine killed one million because the potato crop failed; grain continued flowing from Ireland to England throughout. The 1959-1961 Chinese famine resulted from policy decisions that could theoretically have been reversed. Today's crisis emerges from global systems so complex and interdependent that no single actor controls them, yet no local community escapes their failure. You cannot plant your way out of fertilizer shortages when Haber-Bosch plants require natural gas you cannot afford. You cannot irrigate through drought when aquifers have been pumped dry. You cannot import grain when exporting nations have banned shipments to protect their own populations.
The assessments reportedly concluded with recommendations that bordered on existential. Prioritize stability in nuclear-armed states facing food stress - Pakistan, India, China - regardless of other policy considerations. Prepare for migration flows that would make the 2015 Syrian refugee crisis appear trivial. Accept that certain regions would experience demographic collapse regardless of intervention. This language - sacrifice, triage, strategic abandonment - had not appeared in food security discussions since the Cold War's darkest scenarios. Its reemergence signaled recognition that the present crisis exceeded the framework of humanitarian assistance. It had entered the realm of national security survival.
The 2026 projections, finalized in classified channels during autumn 2025, offered no reprieve. Even assuming average weather - a generous assumption - global grain production would remain below consumption requirements. Stock-to-use ratios would compress further. Prices would rise sufficiently to trigger the political instability that agencies most feared. The "best case" scenarios assumed successful harvests in multiple regions simultaneously, a statistical improbability given recent patterns. The worst cases assumed "compound events" - drought in one breadbasket, flood in another, heat stress in a third - occurring within the same growing season.
Such compound events had occurred before. The 2010 Russian heat wave destroyed one-third of that nation's wheat crop and triggered export bans that contributed to Arab Spring uprisings. The difference in 2025 was systemic vulnerability. In 2010, global reserves could absorb regional failures. In 2025, reserves had been consumed by successive years of deficit. The buffer was gone. Each regional failure would transmit directly to global markets as price spikes, and to vulnerable populations as hunger.
INDICATOR
2022 BASELINE
2025 REALITY
TRAJECTORY
Global acutely food insecure
193 million
266 million
+38% in 36 months
People on famine's brink (IPC Phase 5)
570,000
1.9 million
+233% expansion
Confirmed famines (simultaneous)
0
2 (Gaza, Sudan)
First this century
Humanitarian funding
$37 billion
$21 billion
-43% collapse
Global wheat stocks
284 million tonnes
257 million tonnes
9-year minimum
Urea price (Middle East benchmark)
$400/tonne
$850/tonne
+112% volatility
Major breadbasket regions at risk
3
8
Systemic contagion
El Niño severity index
Neutral
Strong (1.8°C anomaly)
Climate forcing
The table tells a story that prose cannot compress. Each percentage point represents millions of human lives suspended over an abyss. The negative correlations - funding down, need up, reserves depleted, prices soaring - create a vise from which extraction seems impossible. Intelligence analysts deal in probabilities, but by late 2025, the scenario tree had pruned itself to variations of catastrophe.
What the public received were sanitized versions. Press releases about "food security challenges" and "need for increased humanitarian assistance." The classified assessments, leaked in fragments, contained starker language. References to "civilizational stress tests" and "historical inflection points." Comparisons to the fourteenth century's combination of climate deterioration, pandemic, and systemic collapse. Hyperbole, some said. Historical analogy, others countered. The analysts themselves reportedly requested classification upgrades, not to protect sources and methods, but because they feared the political and social consequences of public comprehension.
For comprehension breeds panic, and panic accelerates collapse. When populations understand that grain reserves measure in weeks rather than years, hoarding becomes rational. When farmers realize fertilizer will remain unavailable, they plant less. When governments accept that famine is inevitable, they prioritize regime survival over population welfare. The intelligence community thus faced a paradox: warning loudly enough to motivate action risked triggering the very dynamics that would ensure failure. Warning quietly accomplished nothing.
The 2025 harvests confirmed the modeling. Ukrainian wheat production fell below pre-invasion levels despite territorial gains, because the agricultural labor force had been mobilized, killed, or displaced. Argentine soybeans suffered from drought that irrigation could not mitigate. Australian wheat faced quality downgrades from unseasonable rains during harvest. Each regional failure subtracted from a global balance already overdrawn. The world consumed more grain than it produced in 2024, and again in 2025, drawing down reserves that could not be replenished.
Fertilizer industry executives spoke in private what they dared not announce publicly. The CEO of Yara International, one of the world's largest nitrogen fertilizer producers, reportedly warned that sustained crisis conditions could eliminate ten billion meals per week globally. Ten billion. The number exceeds comprehension until one realizes it represents the caloric foundation for three billion human beings. Remove those meals, and the biological mathematics become inexorable. The body requires approximately 2,000 calories daily for sedentary survival. Below 1,200, organ damage begins. Below 800, mortality becomes probable within months. The hunger margin - the gap between available calories and required calories - had turned negative for hundreds of millions.
What happens when the assessments prove correct is not yet fully visible. History suggests that famine does not produce uniform outcomes. Some societies fragment into violence; others achieve surprising solidarity. Some governments fall; others consolidate authoritarian control over remaining resources. The variables include not just food availability but pre-existing social capital, institutional legitimacy, and the presence or absence of external intervention.
What seems predictable is the silence that precedes recognition. The period when data accumulate but public consciousness has not yet shifted. When grain traders know what consumers do not. When analysts draft reports that policymakers hope to address through incremental measures. When the physics of soil and climate proceed indifferent to human urgency.
This silence characterized 2024 and 2025. The information was available. The Global Report on Food Crises published its findings openly. Agricultural commodity markets reflected scarcity in their price structures. Climate scientists documented the anomalies. Yet the public discourse in wealthy nations remained fixated on other concerns - political scandals, cultural conflicts, technological distractions - while the foundation eroded.
The silence breaks eventually. It breaks when food prices in developed nations spike sufficiently to affect middle-class budgets. When migration pressures overwhelm border infrastructure. When media attention finally focuses on emaciated populations in ways that cannot be ignored. By then, the dynamics have acquired momentum that policy cannot easily arrest. Famine operates on biological timelines - caloric deficits accumulate, immune systems weaken, mortality rises - that do not pause for political deliberation.
The Margin Has Closed
Intelligence agencies prepare for this breaking point because it is their function to anticipate rather than react. They model the scenarios, identify the triggers, recommend the interventions that might - might - mitigate the worst outcomes. But they cannot manufacture rainfall, synthesize fertilizer without feedstock, or force populations to consume less so that others might survive. They operate within constraints that physics and chemistry impose.
The "worst food catastrophe in human history" is not hyperbole if measured by absolute numbers at risk. Previous famines killed millions, but involved populations measured in tens or hundreds of millions. The current crisis threatens hundreds of millions directly, and billions indirectly through price spikes, economic collapse, contagion effects. The scale is unprecedented because the global population is unprecedented, because the integration of food systems is unprecedented, and because the environmental degradation accumulated over centuries is unprecedented.
What the assessments ultimately convey is humility in the face of complexity. The recognition that systems built over generations can fail within seasons. That the margin between subsistence and catastrophe is narrower than comfortable assumption allows. That the future is not an extrapolation of the past but a terrain of radical uncertainty.
The granaries speak in whispers now. The satellite imagery reveals parched fields. The fertilizer plants operate below capacity. The grain traders price in scarcity. The analysts draft their assessments. The populations at risk continue their daily struggle for calories, unaware that their fate has been modeled, projected, and largely determined by forces they did not create and cannot control.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/21/2026 - 23:25 Close
Tue, 22 Sep 2026 03:15:05 +0000 Agentic Wars Begin: Amazon Blocks Meta's Agents As Muse Takes World By Storm
Agentic Wars Begin: Amazon Blocks Meta's Agents As Muse Takes World By Storm
Amazon.com has blocked Meta’s new AI agent from its retail site after the social media company declined a request to remove the bot, Read more.....
Agentic Wars Begin: Amazon Blocks Meta's Agents As Muse Takes World By Storm
Amazon.com has blocked Meta’s new AI agent from its retail site after the social media company declined a request to remove the bot, Bloomberg reported .
Meta’s Muse, which was introduced earlier this month and has taken the world by storm, quickly rising to the top of mobile app charts , a sign that the social media company is gaining traction in the increasingly crowded market for consumer AI assistants, and sent the company's stock price soaring, is designed to help people carry out such common online tasks as shopping and booking appointments.
However, since it has its own agentic product, Amazon prohibits other companies from deploying automated tools to shop its site and started blocking Muse on Sunday night, a spokesperson said. Shoppers using Muse see a series of pop-ups saying its use violates Amazon’s terms of use.
“We think it’s fairly straightforward that third-party applications that offer to make purchases on behalf of customers from other businesses should operate openly and respect service provider decisions about whether or not to participate,” Amazon spokesperson Lara Hendrickson said in an emailed statement, adding that an opt-in requirement is standard practice for food delivery apps and online travel agencies. “Agentic third-party applications such as Muse have the same obligations, and we’ve requested that Meta remove Amazon from the experience.”
Amazon builds its own automated shopping tools, but has sought to prevent rivals’ bots from browsing and making purchases from its catalog. The company last year sued Perplexity AI Inc., saying the widely used artificial intelligence startup sought to conceal its shopping agents after Amazon asked Perplexity to remove them. The legal skirmish is widely seen as a high-profile test case that could help determine the rules of the road governing agentic shopping.
So far, consumers are mostly using bots to research products rather than let them make purchases. So Amazon’s move to block shopping agents from accessing its site means the company is unlikely to lose much business. But if consumers start using AI agents to buy stuff, the bots could select other e-commerce sites, costing Amazon sales and advertising revenue.
Amazon Chief Executive Officer Andy Jassy said earlier this year that the agentic shopping experience left much to be desired, and that the bots often flubbed pricing or other data.
“We’re having conversations with all those folks to try and make that better and find something that works for customers and all the companies,” he said in April.
Perhaps to offset the negative vibes from the angry Amazon response, late on Monday, CEO Mark Zuckerberg said that he was "teaming up with Shopify to make shopping and checkout easier in Muse. Shoppers find more. Shops sell more. More partnerships like this coming soon."
Maybe... but more likely the won't be, since every retailer will want to have their own proprietary agents access to their own content and product offering.
Hence agent wars.
Meta's Muse is ranked the No. 1 free app on the US Apple iOS App and Google Play stores as of Monday. The assistant, which is available for people 18 years and older, was downloaded more than 902,000 times in the six days after Meta introduced it on Sept. 8, according to Abe Yousef, senior insights analyst at Sensor Tower. That’s more than the 773,000 downloads of its predecessor, the Meta AI app, in the same post-launch period.
According to Goldman, Meta’s Muse (powered by Muse Spark) represents a major leap because it delivers ready-to-use personal agents with simple chat interfaces, including deep WhatsApp integration for Muse, so no coding is required - unlike earlier Claude-style bots.
They actively handle tasks like booking holidays or restaurants, and go further by proactively chasing email follow-ups, flagging inconsistencies or conflicts in your inbox, monitoring threads, and advancing goals in the background even when you’re offline. Classic chatbots like ChatGPT stay reactive: they answer questions or draft text only when prompted, never independently act across your apps or keep working on your behalf. As Goldman's TMT specialist Sean Johnstone writes, "the more I use Instinct the more I like it – its really is like having your own dedicated PA."
The sudden surge of Muse means the frontier models' agentic dominance just got another major competitor. It also means there will be an unprecedented demand for hardware: as Wccftech writes , " If Meta’s Muse Personal Agent Scales To Just 100 Million Users, It Would Require 1.58 Million AMD Ryzen CPUs, 800 Petabyte Of RAM, And 10,000 Petabyte Of SSD Under Ideal Conditions ." More:
If you were wondering why everyone has suddenly turned so bullish on CPUs from Intel, AMD, and Arm, look no further than the underlying compute requirements for serving Meta's Muse personal agent to just 100 million users, assuming minimal sharing, especially as Meta has promised each Muse user a dedicated VM that can work continuously in the background.
Also, Meta is currently allowing up to 100 million free tokens per week, with paid subscription tiers starting around $20 per month for heavy power users.
Of course, the agentic fee will only cover a tiny fraction of the hardware required to run the compute the agents will soak up, which means that - if successful in getting more people to use it - Zuckerberg is about to take Meta's capex into hyperdrive. Which, for the company formerly known as Facebook before it changed its name to Meta after a catastrophic foray into the metaverse which cost it nearly $100 billion in wasted funds, won't be the first time it has aggressively chased an overhyped concept only to crash and burn.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/21/2026 - 23:15 Close
Tue, 22 Sep 2026 03:00:00 +0000 China's Rare-Earth Magnet Exports To US Plunge As Trump-Xi Meeting Looms
China's Rare-Earth Magnet Exports To US Plunge As Trump-Xi Meeting Looms
Chinese President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump are scheduled to meet in Washington on Thursday. UBS analysts quoted chief China economist Yu Song as
Read more.....
China's Rare-Earth Magnet Exports To US Plunge As Trump-Xi Meeting Looms
Chinese President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump are scheduled to meet in Washington on Thursday. UBS analysts quoted chief China economist Yu Song as saying the meeting between the leaders of the two global superpowers is largely about strategic stability and modest progress on tariffs, rare earths, and AI safety .
Political risk analyst Marcus Bischoff expects no major breakthrough but says the most realistic outcome is continuity in US-China relations as the most likely outcome. He sees cautious grounds for higher expectations following discussions between US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng ahead of the Trump-Xi summit.
Over the weekend, a Reuters report said that Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng were set to discuss advanced AI bots and the global adoption of the technology, as well as rare earths .
As Christian Keller, Barclays' global head of economics research, recently described , China's near-total control of more than 95% of critical material refining has been used as leverage against the US . Whether magnets, tungsten, germanium, gallium, or other critical materials, China has restricted their flows over the last year and a half, forcing the US into a mad sprint to secure conflict-free supplies.
Bloomberg reported the latest details on China's resource nationalism and the weaponization of critical material supply chains overnight, citing customs data released Sunday that showed rare earth shipments from China to the US plunged sharply in August.
Shipments dropped 21% from July to 512 tons , according to the new trade data. The decline leaves US supplies of components used in cars, consumer goods, and weapons as a key talking point, whether in discussions between Bessent and his Chinese counterparts or between Trump and Xi.
Bloomberg Economics' Chris Kennedy said, "Washington needs stability with Beijing to keep these critical inputs moving ," adding, "Yet periods of calm that restore access to lower-cost Chinese material weaken the urgency for the US to break its dependence on China ."
The latest trade data shows China's quasi-monopolistic control of critical materials can be used as geopolitical leverage.
One major problem for the US is that Barclays' Keller shows Beijing will control mineral mining and global refining of these materials through at least 2030.
Breaking Beijing's quasi-monopolistic grip has been an emerging theme of ours that includes finding producing miners with conflict-free supply chains that can deliver to the West. Those miners will be the early winners because these critical materials are the building blocks of the West's pursuit of reindustrialization, the AI data center buildout, power grid upgrades, and, of course, the incoming rearmament cycle.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/21/2026 - 23:00 Close
Tue, 22 Sep 2026 02:33:35 +0000 "Supply Shortage Problem Has Disappeared": Acer CEO Says Memory Prices To Decline In 2027 As CXMT Starts Mass Production Of New Chip Platform
"Supply Shortage Problem Has Disappeared": Acer CEO Says Memory Prices To Decline In 2027 As CXMT Starts Mass Production Of New Chip Platform
At long last, the memory bubble may be finally bursting.
According to Jason Chen,
Read more.....
"Supply Shortage Problem Has Disappeared": Acer CEO Says Memory Prices To Decline In 2027 As CXMT Starts Mass Production Of New Chip Platform
At long last, the memory bubble may be finally bursting.
According to Jason Chen, chairman and CEO of Taiwanese PC and IT hardware giant, Acer, prices for memory chips will start reversing in the latter half of next year, dismissing the memory cartel pardon Big 3 claim that chip prices will keep rising well beyond 2027, and bucking the popular narrative which expects no declines in chip prices for the foreseeable future.
According to United Daily News , Chen said that only high-end DDR5 parts like LPDDR5X-9600 and niche CPUs like Nvidia’s N1 and N1X chips are in short supply. Since supplier pricing lags consumer pricing by about a few months, he added that PC prices will still rise between 5% and 20% towards the end of this year, plateau by the first half of 2027, before finally declining after years of AI-drive hikes.
The AI boom has driven shortages for various PC components, beginning with GPUs in late 2022, before expanding to memory chips by late 2025. This made memory prices climb 500% in 12 months, although the increases have finally cooled as consumers refuse to absorb further hikes .
Some memory companies like SK Hynix are saying that the shortage will be worse next year and that it won’t be until 2030 before pricing will start to normalize. The Adata chief even said that the DRAM shortage would last another 10 years . This is plausibly true, especially as HBM demand from AI hyperscalers remains strong, and the various memory chip fabs under construction aren’t expected to come online until the 2030s.
However, Chen disagreed with this take. He said that the major memory suppliers naturally want to keep their margins as high as possible for longer, and the reason memory makers keep coming out and saying "the price uptrend will continue into 2027" is that antitrust rules prevent them from coordinating prices directly, so they use public statements to send a kind of "signal" to one another “so they keep putting out the message: let me tell you, prices won’t come down until the year 20-whatever.”
The Acer chairperson argued that there’s already ample memory and SSD supplies, while the purported CPU shortage is now limited to specific models: "No. How could it stay short forever? Chinese capacity keeps coming onto the market. The supply shortage problem has already completely disappeared."
Chen also expects the cost of the SSDs and memory Acer holds in 2027 to be lower than this year. If that gets reflected in end product prices, he sees a possibility that prices at least stop rising and stabilize in the second half of next year. The Acer CEO said prices could be raised further in Q1 27 as well. But since this is a period of pricing chaos, he expects the size of the increases to gradually shrink. He estimates component prices could peak around the middle of 2027, when the capacity that chipmakers have added is expected to start running in earnest.
After that, prices would stabilize, and whether they can actually come down in the second half remains to be seen. He admitted, though, that nobody can know the exact timing of the reversal. Chen said PC selling prices coming back down is strictly "a hope."
He also added that Chinese memory makers churning out cheaper alternatives would disrupt the market - something that SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won feared. In fact, Acer, alongside HP and Asus, has started using CXMT chips in some of its products, while some Lenovo models sold in Germany were found to have YMTC SSDs.
Nevertheless, he said that price increases are becoming their own trend, saying that SSDs, PCBs, and fiberglass cloth used in motherboards are seeing their own hikes. “A lot of people come and tell us they want to raise prices, and we find it a bit baffling — this needs to go up, too?” Chen said to the reporters.
He wrapped up by saying this chain of price hikes creates inflation (according to Goldman, rising memory prices will push core PCE higher by 0.5%) which in turn pushes central banks to raise rates, and that "this is not a normal phenomenon."
As Tom's Hardware summarizes , the overall tenor from Chen is good news for long-suffering PC enthusiasts if computer manufacturers could finally lower prices after years of shortages and expensive parts.
Certainly happy to take advantage of the soaring profit margins, China's best IPO of the decade, DRAM chipmaker CXMT, said on ?Sunday its fifth-generation technology platform had entered mass production, a claimed breakthrough that could help China build a stronger competitor to Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and Micron Technology in the global market for memory chips.
The new platform is ?designed to make more powerful memory chips at lower cost and with less power ?use, Reuters reported . CXMT, which earlier this year listed on Shanghai's STAR Market, said it would give electronics makers an additional ?source of supply for chips used in smartphones and other devices. The company is currently the 4th largest DRAM maker in the world - but rapidly growing - after the Big-3 cartel of Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron.
CXMT, China's leading producer of DRAM, said the ?new platform packs the tiny structures that store data closer together, allowing more memory to fit on each chip and more individual chips to be made from each silicon wafer.
The Hefei-based memory-chip maker said it had reduced the spacing of key features ?in the part of the chip that stores data to 11.95 nanometres, or about 12 billionths of a ?metre.
It achieved this using "quadruple patterning," a process that repeats several manufacturing steps to produce finer circuit patterns.
"Our process capability is now ?on ?par with the most advanced mass-produced nodes out there in the industry," Luo Xiaodong, CXMT's vice president and head of its marketing centre, said at the 2026 World Manufacturing Convention in Hefei.
CXMT also unveiled two 24-gigabit LPDDR5X products made on the new platform. LPDDR5X is a power-saving type of DRAM used mainly ?in smartphones and other portable ?electronics. The products each hold ?50% more data than CXMT's previous equivalent products and are already in mass production, the company said. They are offered in two package formats for different smartphone ?and portable-device designs.
CXMT said the platform can produce at least 50% more gross chip ?dies per ?wafer than its fourth-generation platform, using an 8-gigabit-chip baseline. That measures the potential number of chips made from a wafer before defective units are excluded, rather than the proportion that pass final testing.
CXMT said it developed the platform using computer ?simulations ?and joint work with Chinese chip-equipment makers on critical production steps.
The ?advance comes as Beijing seeks to reduce reliance on foreign semiconductor technology and US export controls since 2022 have restricted China's access to ?certain advanced chipmaking equipment and related software.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/21/2026 - 22:33 Close
Tue, 22 Sep 2026 02:10:00 +0000 "Technically Not A Hurricane": Rare Nor'easter Threatens Northeast This Weekend
"Technically Not A Hurricane": Rare Nor'easter Threatens Northeast This Weekend
Meteorologists on X are tracking a potential nor'easter that could form off the East Coast late this week.
"Technically Not A Hurricane": Rare Nor'easter Threatens Northeast This Weekend
Meteorologists on X are tracking a potential nor'easter that could form off the East Coast late this week.
A late-September nor'easter is rare for this time of year , and it comes as El Niño has curbed hurricane development so far this season.
"While not technically a hurricane , the coastal impacts from a powerful Nor'easter will bring "battering waves" and erosion plus very strong winds perhaps gusting to 70-80 mph," meteorologist Ryan Maue wrote on X earlier Monday, adding, "Even without a storm name -- news media should take this "climate-fueled cyclone" very seriously."
PIX11 senior meteorologist Mike Masco said, "Some model guidance has hinted at gusts of 60–70 mph from eastern New Jersey to eastern Long Island . That is NOT a forecast at this point, but I’m not dismissing the potential, particularly across eastern Long Island."
The good news is that peak hurricane season was on September 10 (11 days ago), without a named storm, because strong wind shear associated with El Niño was tearing apart developing systems in the Atlantic Basin. However, the season runs through November 30.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/21/2026 - 22:10 Close
Tue, 22 Sep 2026 01:45:00 +0000 Chinese County Orders Lawyers To Get Government Approval Before Defending Criminal Charges
Chinese County Orders Lawyers To Get Government Approval Before Defending Criminal Charges
Chinese County Orders Lawyers To Get Government Approval Before Defending Criminal Charges
Authored by Michael Zhuang via The Epoch Times ,
A county justice bureau in southwestern China has ordered local law firms to report cases related to the government's "anti-organized crime" campaign and obtain official approval before lawyers can argue that a defendant's alleged offense should be classified differently.
The No. 2 Intermediate People's Court in the Beijing suburb of Fangzhuang on Aug. 15, 2006. Goh Chai Hin/AFP via Getty Images The notice, issued directly to law firms by the Justice Bureau of Pu'an County in Guizhou Province, requires lawyers handling cases covered by a recent anti-organized crime public notice to report them to the bureau's public legal services department, according to a Sept. 18 blog post by a legal blogger on Chinese news portal NetEase.
The requirement has prompted concerns among Chinese lawyers that a government administrative agency is attempting to exercise control over how defense lawyers present their cases in court.
The notice states that law firms handling cases covered by the campaign "must promptly report [them] to the county justice bureau's public legal services department."
It adds: "If the defense argument is to change the legal characterization of the crime, it must be reported to the county justice bureau for study and approval before that defense theory can be expressed . All law firms are requested to strictly implement this."
Under the arrangement, lawyers would therefore need to do more than simply notify the justice bureau that they are handling a particular case. Before presenting a defense argument that challenges the prosecution's characterization of an alleged offense, they would have to obtain approval from the same government agency responsible for regulating the local legal profession .
Lawyers Question Restrictions
Two China-based attorneys spoke to The Epoch Times on condition of anonymity, giving only their surnames out of fear of reprisal.
Zhang, a human rights lawyer from Hubei Province, said the local county requirement violates China's Criminal Procedure Law and interferes with defendants' rights to a defense, as well as lawyers' independent practice.
"Lawyers [should act] independently in accordance with the law and not be subject to unlawful interference by any administrative agency," Zhang said. "Establishing administrative approval or consent as a prerequisite for using a defense argument is tantamount to placing the review of judicial administrative agencies above the law ."
China's Criminal Procedure Law provides that defense lawyers should, based on facts and law, present materials and opinions concerning innocence, lesser offenses, or the reduction or exemption of criminal responsibility.
However, the Pu'an County notice requires lawyers to wait for the justice bureau to "study and approve" one category of such defense arguments before presenting it.
Liu, a Beijing-based human rights lawyer, told The Epoch Times that the requirement is particularly significant in cases arising from government-led anti-organized crime campaigns, in which lawyers may need to challenge the evidence or the prosecution's classification of an alleged offense.
"In mainland China, the more anti-organized crime is designated by the authorities as a task, the more lawyers need to question the evidence and the characterization of the crime," Liu said.
If administrative agencies can screen out defense arguments they do not approve of, he said, a trial could effectively be left with only the prosecution's account, reducing the defense to a mere formality .
"Special campaigns such as the 'anti-organized crime' campaign launched by the Chinese Communist Party ... carry clear political-task implications for local officials," Liu said. "This precisely reflects that the [local] authorities concerned are moving toward abandoning judicial fairness, and doing so will lead to more wrongful and unjust cases."
Similar Rule Previously Withdrawn
The requirement in Pu'an has a precedent elsewhere in Guizhou Province.
According to a 2015 report by Chinese state-owned media outlet The Paper, the Zunyi Municipal Justice Bureau introduced a rule in late 2014 requiring lawyers to report cases in which they intended to argue for a defendant's acquittal or seek a change in the criminal charge.
Lawyers filed a government information disclosure request concerning the rule. The justice bureau responded that because the provision was controversial, it had decided to withdraw it.
The earlier rule required lawyers to report such cases. The Pu'an notice goes further by explicitly stating that a lawyer seeking to change the legal characterization of a crime must obtain the county justice bureau's "study and approval" before expressing the defense argument in court.
Ye Zilong contributed to this report.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/21/2026 - 21:45 Close