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Americans have been subject to a variety of creative wartime propaganda claims by their government stretching back many decades. From the 'incubator babies' hoax of the first Iraq war, to hyping 'mushroom clouds' over US cities during the 2nd Iraq War, to Gaddafi 'mass rape' allegations through distributing Viagra pills to Libyan troops - there seems to be no end to such bizarre claims out of the D.C. beltway, and the mainstream media is consistently a willing participant in spreading these proven lies.

Already we've seen some whoppers coming from the same sources on Iran. Even Vice President J.D. Vance, reported to harbor quiet skepticism and doubts about Trump's Operation Epic Fury, has floated the idea that Tehran could send out terrorists with 'nuclear suicide vests'. But leave it to the Iranian 'expert' pundit class to come up with something even more absurd: suicide bomber dolphins. The below clip was recently aired on CNN, and the MSM channel gave the wild claim an air of credibility, because of course it did...

"To give you a sign of the desperate measures [Iran is] contemplating, the Wall Street Journal reported today that they're contemplating suicide dolphins, you know, dolphins equipped with mines to try to go after U.S. ships," @ksadjadpour says.

"That's not a that's not a measure… pic.twitter.com/wOJoIVLVMy

— Kaitlan Collins (@kaitlancollins) May 2, 2026

CNN show host Kaitlan Collins did nothing to challenge the assertion, which Iranian leaders were supposedly "contemplating". For example, the supposed 'expert' pundit didn't even bother to establish whether Iran has ever so much as had such a program.

However, there has long been a United States dolphin mine locating program and research. But in this instance - during the Iraq war of 2003 for example - they simply assisted in locating mines threatening the Persian Gulf waterway, according to archived news articles.

The Iranians may have, going years back, experimented with deploying dolphins to assist in surveillance operations - akin to some cutting edge programs in other countries like Russia, but nothing is known of what became of this, and it would without doubt be a very expensive research program which would require a heavy, long-term time investment as well.

And to be expected, the 'suicide dolphins' narrative gets re-laundered by Fox News:

Fox News is telling Americans that Iran is strapping suicide bombs to dolphins.

Who believes this propaganda anymore?pic.twitter.com/JPSwtcTpnj

— Ethan Levins ???? (@EthanLevins2) May 3, 2026

But it remains that there has never been evidence of any country deploying 'suicide dolphins' to take out enemy ships. When it comes to 'official enemies' of Washington, the pundit class can basically make up any nefarious and twisted allegation or plot and it won't be met with much scrutiny or pushback from the mainstream, if any at all.

When the MSM wants to float at outlandish claim and frame it as credible, another technique is to simply add "reports say" such and such a regime is "mulling" this or that.

Flipper Akbar!...

The propaganda claim then becomes impossible to confirm, but still gets widely circulated, and the 'method' keeps getting repeated, with only the most gullible buying into the claims (though sadly, this is way too many Americans).

The EyE-raNIAN SUICIDE aTTaCK DoLpHInS are COmINg!!!

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent joined Fox News' Sunday Morning Futures with Maria Bartiromo to discuss how the Trump administration is "suffocating" Iran with economic and financial pressure amid an ongoing U.S. military blockade of the Hormuz chokepoint.

"We are running a marathon over the past 12 months, and now we are sprinting toward the finish line"" Bessent told Bartiromo earlier this morning. 

Bessent explained how the U.S. maximum pressure campaign on Tehran has become "a real economic blockade," claiming the regime is "not able to pay their soldiers" and that oil infrastructure is quickly deteriorating, as crude oil storage quickly rises while export channels remain shuttered.

Bessent warned that Iran may have to start shutting in oil wells within the next week as exports remain constrained.

Bessent on Iran:

"We are suffocating the regime. They are not able to pay their soldiers." https://t.co/dX3LvhAPtl pic.twitter.com/3rICBw9nzL

— Adam Scott (@chefcascottccc) May 3, 2026

"Their oil infrastructure is starting to creak," he said. "It hasn't been maintained, again because of our decades-long sanctions against them."

Bessent said no tankers are transiting the critical waterway from the Iranian side, "and we have increased the pressure on anyone trying to remit money into Iran to help the IRGC," referring to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Amid the impact of Economic Fury, Iran’s currency has hit an all-time low.

The Iranian people deserve a new era, which the corrupt and shambolic Iranian regime cannot provide.

With their oil industry closing and their currency plummeting, it is past time for the Iranian regime… pic.twitter.com/k7QvKoWbl2

— Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (@SecScottBessent) April 30, 2026

Late last week, the Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control imposed sanctions on Chinese independent "teapot" refineries, particularly those in Shandong Province, for their continued purchase and refining of Iranian crude.

By Saturday morning, Beijing announced that companies in the country should ignore and not comply with U.S. sanctions targeting five domestic refineries.

"The Chinese government has consistently opposed unilateral sanctions that lack authorization from the United Nations and a basis in international law," Beijing's Commerce Ministry wrote in a statement. 

President Trump's maximum pressure campaign on Tehran comes as the latest U.S. national average for 87-octane gasoline at the pump has topped $4.446 per gallon. Demand destruction starts around $5 per gallon, with numerous Goldman notes indicating that working-poor consumers are already dialing back purchases or trading down at gas stations and convenience stores due to the recent fuel price shock.

On Saturday, President Trump stated that he "can't imagine" a new peace plan from Tehran that he will review would be acceptable. He added that Iran has not yet paid "a big enough price for what they have done."

Axios reported earlier that the U.S. and Iran are "still exchanging drafts of a framework agreement to end the war."

Last week, Iran delivered an updated 14-point proposal to the U.S. for a framework agreement. Sources told the outlet that the proposal sets a one-month deadline for reopening of the Hormuz chokepoint.

Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

Elizabeth Warren has built an entire political career on presenting herself as the righteous defender of ordinary Americans against powerful corporations.

Every speech is some variation of the same script: she’s fighting for workers, fighting for consumers, fighting for families, and standing up to greedy executives and monopolistic corporations that are supposedly rigging the system against everyone else. It is a message carefully designed to make her sound like a populist champion of the middle class while putting a polish on inherently broken socialist ideas.

When her flawed ideology collides with reality, it repeatedly produces outcomes that hurt the exact people she claims to represent. Spirit Airlines may be one of the clearest examples yet.

When JetBlue moved to acquire Spirit in 2022, Warren treated the deal like it was Apple, Netflix, Meta, Microsoft, Google, Amazon and the Third Reich all merging into one new authoritarian Orwellian company called Dystopian Evil Holdings, LLC.

She aggressively pushed regulators to block it, warning that the merger would reduce competition and raise ticket prices. The Biden administration’s Department of Justice embraced that argument and sued to stop the acquisition, ultimately succeeding when a federal judge blocked the deal.

Warren and her allies framed the decision as a victory for competition, arguing they had protected budget-conscious travelers from corporate consolidation. It was a neat political story: another giant corporation had been stopped before it could crush the little guy. Spirit Airlines and JetBlue have had their boot on the neck of John Q. Consumer for just too damn long.

The problem was that Spirit itself was never some stable, healthy company that simply needed to remain independent for the good of consumers. It was a deeply troubled airline with serious structural problems, mounting financial pressure, operational issues, and a business model that had become increasingly difficult to sustain. Investors knew it. Employees knew it. Executives knew it. That is precisely why a sale made sense.

JetBlue wasn’t trying to acquire a thriving competitor at the height of its strength—it was purchasing a distressed company that many people believed would struggle to survive on its own. There is an enormous difference between stopping anti-competitive monopoly behavior and preventing a struggling business from being absorbed by a company willing to keep its assets operational.

That distinction appears to be completely lost on Warren because her worldview requires every transaction to be bourgeoisie vs. proletariat. This corporate merger, to her, fit into the same simplistic narrative. In that worldview, corporations are almost always villains, regulators are almost always heroes, and any transaction involving large sums of money must be treated with suspicion. It is an ideology built for campaign speeches and social media clips only — not for reality.

Markets are not morality plays. Companies fail, industries consolidate, assets change hands, and stronger operators often absorb weaker ones. That process is not inherently exploitative, it is often what prevents total collapse.

And that is what makes this situation so politically revealing. Warren constantly brands herself as a defender of workers, yet her preferred outcome here appears to have been the complete destruction of a company rather than allowing a private-sector solution that may have preserved jobs, routes, and infrastructure.

What exactly is pro-worker about that? What kind of politician claims to care deeply about labor while helping create an outcome that leaves thousands of workers unemployed? Pilots, flight attendants, mechanics, baggage handlers, gate agents, airport vendors, hotel workers, rental car companies, and countless businesses connected to Spirit’s network all now face the consequences of a collapse that regulators helped accelerate. These are not abstract numbers on an antitrust white paper. These are actual people whose livelihoods depend on functioning businesses.

Or, as Warren put it: “This is a Biden win for flyers!”

And consumers were supposedly the people being protected. That argument looks even weaker now. Spirit may not have been beloved, but it played an important role in many markets by forcing larger airlines to compete on price. Millions of travelers tolerated the stripped-down experience because the fares were significantly cheaper than alternatives. That pressure matters. When low-cost carriers disappear from routes, prices frequently rise because legacy airlines face less pressure to offer aggressive pricing. Warren blocked a merger over the fear of hypothetical future price increases while helping create a scenario where an entire low-cost competitor disappears altogether. Consumers now get fewer choices, less competition, and likely higher prices—the exact outcome regulators claimed they were preventing.

This reflects a broader flaw in modern progressive economic thinking: an almost religious belief that government officials are uniquely qualified to outsmart markets.

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The assumption is always that regulators can better allocate resources, predict outcomes, and manage industries than investors, executives, workers, and consumers operating within those markets. That belief has repeatedly failed in practice because markets are dynamic and often messy. Politicians frequently intervene with enormous confidence and then act surprised when unintended consequences emerge. The people making those decisions rarely bear the cost of being wrong.

That may be the most frustrating part of this story. Elizabeth Warren will not suffer from Spirit’s collapse. She will not lose a paycheck. She will not be explaining layoffs to families. She will not be dealing with reduced travel options in underserved markets. She will not face higher airfare costs. She will continue appearing on television and telling voters she fought greed and protected consumers. The workers and travelers dealing with the consequences of her policies are the ones who will absorb the damage.

To be clear, Spirit was not a perfect company. It had major flaws and serious operational challenges. Bad business models fail all the time, and capitalism requires that poorly run companies face consequences. But capitalism also includes mergers, acquisitions, restructurings, and private-sector rescue attempts. If another company sees value in preserving assets and maintaining operations, that is part of how markets correct themselves. Preventing that process simply because it conflicts with an ideological hostility toward corporate transactions is not economic justice. It is performative politics masquerading as consumer advocacy.

Elizabeth Warren wanted to stop a merger because it allowed her to posture as a warrior against corporate power. She got her headline. She got her applause from anti-corporate activists. She got to claim another victory over big business. What she did not get was a better outcome for workers or consumers. Instead, she helped create a scenario where an already struggling airline disappeared entirely, leaving employees without jobs and consumers with fewer affordable options.

For someone who constantly claims to fight for working Americans, that is a remarkable record of harming them in the name of helping them.

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QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions. All positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.

The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

A large cargo ship near the Strait of Hormuz has reported being attacked by multiple small craft, the British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said Sunday, marking at least two dozen attacks in and around the strait since the Iran war began.

All crew on the unidentified northbound carrier, which could be the Pasargad 11 General Cargo Ship with a destination of Dubai after it reversed...

... were safe after the attack off Sirik, Iran, east of the strait, the monitor said. Iranian officials have asserted that they control the strait and that ships not affiliated with the United States or Israel can pass if they pay a toll.

There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the attack, the first reported in the area since April 22, when a cargo ship reported being fired upon, the monitor said. The threat level in the area remains critical. Tehran effectively closed the strait by attacking and threatening ships.

Iranian patrol boats, some powered only by twin outboard motors, are small, nimble and hard to detect and have attacked several ships. President Donald Trump last month ordered the U.S. military to “shoot and kill” small Iranian boats that deploy mines in the strait.

Separately, Iran's FARS news reported that several vessel captains in the Ras Al Khaimah area of the UAE had been instructed via VHF radio to vacate their anchorages. However, media reports indicate that it was business as usual 5 hours after the Iranian warning, with ship positions largely unchanged.

UAE ???? Ras Al Khaimah anchorage spotted TODAY 1417 UTC ??

Looks like business as usual 5 hours after Iran ???? channel 16 "orders". It is not like place is empty or something. https://t.co/tF2xQ7FR43 pic.twitter.com/51nja93xkF

— Tom Bike (@tom_bike) May 3, 2026

The fragile three-week ceasefire appears to be holding, though Trump on Saturday told journalists that further strikes remained a possibility

Nearly 18,000 left-wing activists on BlueSky are in panic mode this weekend after an anti-ICE activist website launched by a fired Trump official exposed their personal details due to a vulnerable connection (an unprotected API).

The website - "GTFO ICE" - was created by former DHS Chief of Staff and Google security executive, Miles Taylor, as a rapid response network that allows people to sign up for alerts about proposed ICE facilities in their area, HRR reports. Taylor, who launched the site in partnership with Project Salt Box, appeared last week on The Rachel Maddow show to announce their "rapid response network to stop ICE prison camps before they start." 

The breach exposed sign-up records, may have been forwarded to federal investigators. As Hagerstown Rapid Response writes of their experience: 

Three days ago, we signed up on the platform using multiple email addresses and phone numbers across several locations listed on the site, including Hagerstown and Williamsport, Maryland, as well as Salt Lake City. No confirmation emails or texts were received at the time of signup.

That changed this morning.

One of the phone numbers used during signup received a text message claiming that user data submitted to GTFOICE.org had been forwarded to federal authorities, including the FBI, HSI, and ICE. The message also included inflammatory claims about the individuals behind the project. We responded to the message but received no reply.

Shortly after, the GTFOICE.org website appeared to acknowledge an issue. Around 6 p.m. Eastern, the site displayed a notice stating that signups were temporarily paused while a security review was completed. Within roughly twenty minutes, that message was removed and replaced with a generic “under construction” page.

It remains unclear whether the message received was the result of a confirmed breach, a malicious spoof, or another form of compromise. However, the sequence of events raises serious questions about how user data was handled and whether it may have been exposed.

Taylor's security clearance was notably suspended in April 2025 for "treasonous conduct" after he allegedly "stoked dissension by manufacturing sensationalist reports on the existence of a supposed "resistance" within the Federal Government." Now, it appears he may have unintentionally honey-potted his left-wing comrades, many of whom reportedly plotted revolution on BlueSky.

Thousands signed up. In fact, a total of 17,662 users were exposed through a public REST API with no real authentication or rate limiting, leaving full records accessible, including timestamps, according to DOGE-aligned investigative journalist, DataRepublican. 

The man who ran the third-largest federal department (250,000 employees, $60 billion budget) who oversaw election security architecture and led counterterrorism operations, then served as Google's Head of National Security Policy...

...can't secure a sign-up form. But he does milk hundreds of thousands of NGO dollars on these credentials. While freeloading off his fame as the person who wrote the infamous NYT article "I Am Part of the Resistance Inside the Trump Administration." -DataRepublican

???? BREAKING: Miles Taylor: "Anonymous," former DHS Chief of Staff, Google security executive launched a website called GTFO ICE that collects your full name, email, phone number, and zip code to join an anti-ICE "rapid response network." And publishes the user infromation via… pic.twitter.com/zDKVIePntM

— DataRepublican (small r) (@DataRepublican) May 2, 2026

DataRepublican did her typical deep dive on the organizational structure of GTFO ICE, which only suggests it's linked to the protest industrial complex that is funded by dark money via left-wing billionaire kings and queens and their NGOs. She also notes that he launched DEFIANCE.org five months after his clearances were suspended, and five months after that, GTFO ICE. 

Taylor's security clearance was suspended by presidential memorandum in April 2025. Trump called his conduct "treasonous." Five months later, Taylor launched DEFIANCE dot org. Five months after that... GTFO ICE. pic.twitter.com/EL3kpWF8GX

— DataRepublican (small r) (@DataRepublican) May 2, 2026

GTFO ICE is a coalition of three orgs: 1. DEFIANCE dot org : Miles Taylor + Xander Schultz 2. Save America Movement : Steve Schmidt (yes, of the Lincoln Project) 3. Project Salt Box

GTFO ICE is a coalition of three orgs:

1. DEFIANCE dot org : Miles Taylor + Xander Schultz
2. Save America Movement : Steve Schmidt (yes, of the Lincoln Project)
3. Project Salt Box pic.twitter.com/D5TivYRYTO

— DataRepublican (small r) (@DataRepublican) May 2, 2026

Steve Schmidt co-founded the Lincoln Project. Raised ~$65M. Finances called under question when the money went to founders' consulting firms. AOC called it "scam territory." Co-founder John Weaver allegedly soliciting young men. Schmidt now runs Save America Movement ... same structure.

Steve Schmidt co-founded the Lincoln Project. Raised ~$65M. Finances called under question when the money went to founders' consulting firms. AOC called it "scam territory." Co-founder John Weaver allegedly soliciting young men. Schmidt now runs Save America Movement ... same… pic.twitter.com/uBiS0vJSDR

— DataRepublican (small r) (@DataRepublican) May 2, 2026

Scott Goodstein — GTFO ICE's "media contact" — was Obama's 2008 external digital director and led Bernie Sanders' 2016 digital fundraising ($218 million raised). His advisory board ties connect directly to the Arabella Advisors dark money network. "Grassroots."

Scott Goodstein — GTFO ICE's "media contact" — was Obama's 2008 external digital director and led Bernie Sanders' 2016 digital fundraising ($218 million raised). His advisory board ties connect directly to the Arabella Advisors dark money network. "Grassroots." pic.twitter.com/NVSpi7LR63

— DataRepublican (small r) (@DataRepublican) May 2, 2026

$625,000+ in confirmed Arabella/Sixteen Thirty Fund dark money flows to GTFO ICE coalition principals: • $300K ? Lincoln Project (Schmidt) • $250K ? One for Democracy (Schultz) • $75K ? Defeat by Tweet (Schultz)

$625,000+ in confirmed Arabella/Sixteen Thirty Fund dark money flows to GTFO ICE coalition principals:

• $300K ? Lincoln Project (Schmidt)
• $250K ? One for Democracy (Schultz)
• $75K ? Defeat by Tweet (Schultz) pic.twitter.com/VGUk44P02L

— DataRepublican (small r) (@DataRepublican) May 2, 2026

DEFIANCE.org calls itself a "nonprofit." I could not find IRS registration. It solicits monthly "memberships" up to $1,000/month... $12,000/year... with no known accountability.

https://t.co/APCLu52iVu calls itself a "nonprofit." I could not find IRS registration. It solicits monthly "memberships" up to $1,000/month... $12,000/year... with no known accountability. pic.twitter.com/3NxLemT4k3

— DataRepublican (small r) (@DataRepublican) May 2, 2026

The "bipartisan grassroots movement" is an unknown "nonprofit" run by Obama's digital director, Lincoln Project's co-founder, with hundreds of thousands in Arabella dark money... whose sign-up form was built by a former DHS Chief of Staff and Google security executive who left everyone's data exposed on an open API. The man who ran homeland security couldn't secure a sign-up form. And we wonder why the government is such a mess.

The "bipartisan grassroots movement" is an unknown "nonprofit" run by Obama's digital director, Lincoln Project's co-founder, with hundreds of thousands in Arabella dark money... whose sign-up form was built by a former DHS Chief of Staff and Google security executive who left…

— DataRepublican (small r) (@DataRepublican) May 2, 2026

DataRepublican continued... 

Please follow @astrarce and @bitchuneedsoap , who also helped to break the data breaches of STOP ICE and DEICER. pic.twitter.com/kTLBvfGWkh

— DataRepublican (small r) (@DataRepublican) May 2, 2026

Needless to say - "Bluesky is in full panic. A full on exposed API has revealed thousands of people who signed up for the GTFO Ice site. Full names, phone, and zip codes," one X user noted.

Bluesky is in full panic.

A full on exposed API has revealed thousands of people who signed up for the GTFO Ice site.

Full names, phone, and zip codes. https://t.co/HxjrLydHdE pic.twitter.com/zti8CTrC0N

— Grummz (@Grummz) May 2, 2026

To sum up, the same people who wanted to doxx ICE agents may have just doxxed themselves, thanks to sloppy website work by anti-Trump operative Miles Taylor, who should have known better.

The obvious question now: did Taylor accidentally honey-pot his own comrades?

Three months ago, billionaire Ryan Cohen, the CEO of GameStop, told The Wall Street Journal he was eyeing a major acquisition. Fast forward to late last week, and in what appears to be an intentional leak to the same outlet, Cohen's next move may now be coming into focus: preparing an offer to buy eBay.

The WSJ cites sources who say that Cohen's GameStop has built a $12 billion position in eBay ahead of a potential offer. Notably, eBay has a market capitalization 3.8 times larger than that of the video game retailer.

Sources said Cohen could announce the offer as early as this month, and if eBay rejects it, he may take the bid directly to shareholders.

In late January, Cohen told WSJ that he was eyeing a major transaction and searching for deals in the consumer and retail space, as part of a plan to expand the business far beyond video games and collectibles. 

WSJ's Lauren Thomas noted, "GameStop had around $9 billion in cash on hand at the end of March, up from $4.8 billion a year earlier. Cohen would likely enlist his legions of online followers to rally behind a deal, too."

The report comes as GameStop shares are up about 32% this year on hopes for dealmaking, while eBay shares are up nearly 20% this year.

However, one week ago, we penned a note covering AI startup Anthropic, which quietly released a report titled "Project Deal" suggesting the company may be preparing to take on eBay.

The Republican Party is bracing for a brutal midterm election this year. Polls show Democrats ahead in the generic congressional ballot, and prediction markets give them solid odds of taking the House and a modest chance of flipping the Senate. But despite polls and prediction markets, there are signs that the GOP could defy history.

And it comes down to black voters.

Could black voters actually be the secret weapon that keeps Republicans in power after the 2026 midterms? The numbers, at least according to CNN's Harry Enten, suggest the question is worth asking seriously.

Enten laid out a striking case, walking through data that shows Donald Trump and the GOP making inroads with African American voters that the Republican Party simply hasn't seen in decades. 

While there’s no doubt that Democrats still have a solid advantage among black voters, that advantage is shrinking, and in tight races, even modest shifts can flip outcomes.

Trump's approval rating among black voters sat at 12% during his first term. It's now at 16%. It’s a modest shift that could be consequential, Enten argues, in states like Georgia, where margins are razor-thin, and every percentage point is a battleground. "Republicans absolutely love the shift that's going on," Enten said, "because Democrats have had such a long-term advantage." He argued that Trump "actually gaining ground versus where he was in term number one... has major implications for elections down the line."

The party identification numbers are another good sign for the GOP in November. Democrats have a 51-point advantage with African-American voters, which may sound good, but it’s actually a devastating number when you consider that during Trump's first term, Democrats held a 63-point advantage. 

The Democratic advantage has shrunk by 12 points. 

"This to me was absolutely stunning," Enten said, noting that the Democratic lead among black voters is now "actually smaller than any lead from 2006 to 2021" - a stretch of time that includes Barack Obama's two presidential runs.

What makes this more than just a polling curiosity is that the gains appear to be sticking. Democrats got shellacked with black voters in 2024. Trump turned in what Enten called a "historically strong performance" with that group, and Democrats had their worst showing in a generation. The natural assumption would be that some of that was a one-cycle anomaly, and that current economic concerns and opposition to the war in Iran would erase the gains Trump made. 

But the data says otherwise. 

Pre-election polling ahead of 2024 showed Kamala Harris leading among Black voters by 63 points. That number now sits at 62 points. "Republicans are holding onto the gains that they made among African Americans in 2024," Enten observed.

Whether these gains will stick after Trump leaves office remains to be seen, but as far as the 2026 midterm elections go, it’s clear there’s no Democratic bounce-back. The voters who drifted toward Trump or away from the Democratic Party haven't come back. This is a huge problem for the Democratic Party coalition, which has relied heavily on the loyalty of black voters.

 "The Donald Trump-led Republican Party is making gains among African Americans that we simply put have not seen the Republican Party make in a generation." 

Trump's GOP is holding on to the generational gains they made with Black voters in the 2024 election.

The GOP has gained 12 pts on the Dems on party id with African Americans vs. Trump term 1 at this point.

Trump's approval with Black voters is higher than it was in term 1. pic.twitter.com/EKiEv561jk

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) April 30, 2026

The implications of these numbers is huge for the 2026 midterms.

Southern states with competitive House and Senate races depend heavily on black voter turnout and margins. This means that if Democrats are hemorrhaging even a few percentage points of that support, the math gets ugly for them really

Iran is telling Washington that the ball is in its court as President Trump has affirmed over the weekend that he is reviewing the latest peace deal submitted via Pakistani mediators. Tehran is further saying the US is going from worse to worse as it must now choose between an "impossible" military operation or a "bad" deal.

The intelligence unit of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has newly stated that "Trump must choose between an impossible military operation or a bad deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran," according to Al Jazeera referencing the official statement. The provocative words framing the dilemma came soon on the heels of the following Saturday Truth Social post from Trump:

As for the IRGC statement about an "impossible" miliary operation, it further indicated that Tehran sent the US military a deadline to end its blockade of Iranian ports. It highlighted that Europe, China and Russia are are increasingly taking a more critical toward Washington's war.

"The room for US decision-making has narrowed," the IRGC intelligence unit sad additionally, emphasizing "there is only one way to read this."

At the moment, the two-week ceasefire which was announced on April 8 through Pakistani mediation has been unilaterally extended by Trump, to now be indefinite. On Friday as the conflict reached 60-days, President Trump submitted a formal letter to Congress stressing Operation Epic Fury had already been 'terminated' due to the ceasefire. 

The White House is arguing that this loophole - or the fact that there's currently no exchanges of fire between the US and Iranian sides - means that required Congressional review and authorization of use of American troops is essentially voided. In the meantime gas prices at the pump for Americans are steadily rising. The below is the full IRGC statement to the US side:

IRGC Intelligence Organization:

?? Iran sets Pentagon a blockade deadline

?? China, Russia, Europe shift tone against Washington Trump's passive letter to Congress

?? Acceptance of Iran's negotiating terms pic.twitter.com/e5wIH4ZbHv

— Press TV ?? (@PressTV) May 3, 2026

The current Iran-submitted plan now being reviewed at the White House reportedly contains 14 points. A Russian correspondent has said that "Iran is seeking a decisive and permanent end to the conflict with the US, rather than a previously proposed two-month ceasefire" and that it seems a one-month window to end all hostilities.

"The plan includes a demand to resolve all issues and end the war within 30 days," said RT correspondent Saman Kojouri, adding that “"he space for compromise between Tehran and Washington is narrowing." Just by the close of last week Trump said he was 'not satisfied' with what he had seen so far.