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Citi analysts examined recreational vehicles and boats and found that high prices and elevated financing costs are keeping much of the market under pressure. There's some good news: motorcycles, off-road vehicles, and motorized RVs have become more affordable relative to incomes.

Citi leisure analyst James Hardiman wrote in a note on Monday that investors typically group RVs, boats, motorcycles, and off-road vehicles together in terms of macro factors. But he noted that "these categories face very different affordability backdrops," contrary to investor beliefs.

"Towable RV and boat payments remain well above their historical share of buyer income, and while motorcycle/ORV payments are up meaningfully, this has been outpaced by income growth," Hardiman said, adding, "The relative retail performance of these categories supports the conclusion that affordability, rather than a uniform pullback in discretionary spending, is the biggest factor separating the winners from the losers."

Hardiman estimates that monthly payments on a comparable new towable RV are 67% above 2019 levels, while boat payments have risen 54%. 

He said unaffordable towable RVs and high financing costs have forced buyers to trade down. "Buyers have responded by trading down to smaller, less expensive, and lower-content units, but that mix shift has not solved the underlying affordability problem," he wrote.

There is some good news: motorcycles and off-road vehicles like Polaris RZRs tell a much different story and have become more affordable relative to incomes. He said that although monthly payments have increased 17% and 21% since 2019, respectively, buyer income growth has more than offset those increases. Motorized RV affordability is roughly unchanged from 2019. 

Here are the highlights from the note:

Towable RVs remain at the center of the affordability crisis. The monthly payment on the same new towable is 67% higher than in 2019 and now consumes 4.4% of a typical buyer household's income, up from ~3.5% in 2019. More importantly, the payment consumes 26% more of the buyer's discretionary income than it did in 2019, even after improving from 38% above 2019 at the 2024 peak. Buyers have responded by trading down to smaller, less expensive, and lower-content units, but that mix shift has not solved the underlying affordability problem.

Boats face a similar but somewhat less severe problem. Boat payments stand 54% above 2019, consuming 5.7% of buyer income vs. 4.9% in 2019. Measured against discretionary income, the payment burden stands 16% above 2019, after peaking at ~25% above in 2024.

Contrary to popular belief, neither motorcycles nor ORVs face an affordability crisis; quite the contrary. Motorcycle payments consume 4.0% of typical buyer income vs. 4.6% in 2019, while ORV payments consume 3.4% vs. 3.7% in 2019. Measured against discretionary income, motorcycles are 13% more affordable than in 2019 and ORVs are ~10% more affordable, as discretionary income growth has more than offset payment increases of 17% and 21%, respectively, helping explain both categories' relative retail outperformance.

Hardiman's 2027 outlook on financing rates for outdoor leisure items is unlikely to bring relief anytime soon: 

2027 is unlikely to bring meaningful affordability relief: Based on forward market expectations, prime borrowing rates could rise another 44 to 51 bps by late 2027, while we assume prices increase 2.5% across categories. 

Together, these factors would drive monthly payments 3% to 4% higher, including 2.5% to 3.0% from rates for RVs and boats versus roughly 1% for powersports given their shorter loan terms. Assuming buyer income grows 3.75% and the share available for discretionary spending remains near current levels, affordability should remain roughly flat overall, preserving rather than closing the current gap. Towable RVs and boats would remain stretched, while motorcycles and ORVs should retain their relative affordability advantage.

The affordability squeeze is set to follow towable RVs and boats into next year, keeping demand well under pressure and potentially weighing on manufacturers' shares.

Motorcycles and off-road vehicles look brighter, with payment burdens relative to income below 2019 levels, while motorized RVs are roughly back to pre-pandemic levels. 

Dramatic footage surfaced on X earlier Wednesday showing the wreckage after a high-speed train slammed into the rear of another train that had stopped on the Spanish railway system. Early reports say at least 30 people are dead and dozens are injured.

The collision occurred in Toledo province, located in central Spain, just south of Madrid. AP News cites Castilla-La Mancha regional spokeswoman Esther Padilla, who confirmed 10 deaths but warned that "that number will surely rise." 

???? Horrifying footage from inside a high-speed train that crashed and derailed today in Toledo, Spain. At least 39 people were killed and hundreds were injured. https://t.co/OcEin3UucO

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) October 28, 2026

However, a separate report from Bloomberg, citing the Castilla-La Mancha spokeswoman, now says that the death toll has reached at least 30 people. 

BREAKING: At least 46 dead and 179 injured after Iryo train carrying 146 people and Renfe train carrying 397 people collide near Toledo, Spain; numbers expected to climb. https://t.co/gmxSgXpskt

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) October 28, 2026

State-owned Renfe and privately owned Iryo operated the trains involved in the rail incident, carrying 397 and 147 passengers, respectively. Spanish media reported that the Renfe train appeared to have struck the Iryo service.

Health Minister Mónica García told state broadcaster TVE, "It was a high-speed impact, so we are expecting this to be a tragedy." She said the worst casualties were in two carriages crushed in the impact.

Today's collision follows a January derailment in southern Spain that killed 45 people and also involved Renfe and Iryo trains. The deadliest rail crash in Spain occurred in 2013, when 80 people died.

Summary: 

• Brazil On Brink Of Political Chaos? 
• Bolsonaro Inbound To US, Trump To Issue Visas 
• Democracy Dies In Brazil Under Lula's Socialist Regime 
• Bolsonaro Reportedly Entered Argentina To Fly To US 
• Bolsonaro Says His Political Prosecution By Socialists Is "Sign Democracy Has Failed"  
• Bolsonaro Drops Annulment Bid As Party Concedes To Lula, Vows Congressional "Fortress" Against Socialist Rule

Bolsonaro Heading To US Amid Lula's Political Crackdown 

The Trump administration plans to issue visas to Flávio Bolsonaro and his family, Bloomberg reported late Tuesday evening, citing a senior State Department official.

The move follows a Brazilian Supreme Court order ordering Bolsonaro to surrender his passports after Sunday's presidential runoff. 

More color from the report:

The visas will allow Bolsonaro and his family to enter the US, the official said Tuesday. Bolsonaro is en route to the US and is likely to land in either Dallas or Miami, Folha de S.Paulo reported earlier in the day.

Brownstone Institute founder and president Jeffrey Tucker wrote on X:

Disaster is unfolding in Brazil. Obviously faked election results and totalitarian crackdown on opposition: could they trigger a US intervention? It could, which would also be a disaster. There are no solutions.

The developments suggest Brazil could be on the verge of a political crisis, heightening tensions between the Trump administration and Lula's socialist regime.

Brazil On Brink Of Political Turmoil?

The lack of scrutiny from Western news outlets and left-wing NGOs as Lula's socialist regime imposes court-ordered travel restrictions on Bolsonaro raises concerns about political persecution and the use of overreaching judicial power to attack the opposition. Every mainstream lefty outlet has been quiet about this, and that's very telling.

Democrats, the DSA, and Alex Soros championed a Lula win, yet the political persecution of Bolsonaro is quite alarming and only a symptom of what the socialists have in store for their opponents across the West.

Lula supporters in Brazil celebrate their victory by BURNING the American flag and chanting "Fora Trump".. The Soros foundation sent Brazil about R$605 million between 2016 and 2023, and over $31 million to 95 NGOs in 2023 alone, according to Gazeta do Povo.. Look at what those NGOs push: dr*g decriminalization, abortion, fewer people in prison, and groups like Sleeping Giants Brasil that organize ad boycotts against right-wing media. RIP BRAZIL

— American AF ???? (@iAnonPatriot) October 26, 2026

As Bolsonaro put it shortly after the regime seized his passport on Monday afternoon, it's "a sign that our democracy has failed."

There are new developments in the Brazilian political arena, according to Glenn Greenwald:

Brazilian authorities and media are trying to find out where Flavio Bolsonaro is. 

Brazil's notorious authoritarian Judge Alexandre de Moraes -- before the votes were counted -- already had an order prepared to seize Bolsonaro's passports and bar him from leaving the country even though **he's been charged with no crime** (there are various pending financial investigations). Moraes signed the order barring Bolsonaro from leaving Brazil SEVEN MINUTES after Lula was declared the winner on Sunday night. 

A media outlet in Argentina this morning reported that Bolsonaro entered Argentina to fly to the US. His friends and allies deny this, but Flavio could easily just appear in Brazil or even by video and has not done so. Argentina is being sketchy, evasive and somewhat uncooperative with Brazil's federal police (Lula and Milei are obviously not allies).

BREAKING: Private plane reportedly carrying Brazilian Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, allegedly trying to flee to the U.S., remains grounded in Argentina after failing to take off at 2 a.m., local media report. https://t.co/H435zUI8c5

— Scope Report (@ScopeReport_) October 27, 2026

Greenwald continued: 

Whatever else is true, it is not exactly a sign of a healthy, normal or functioning democracy when the candidate who narrowly loses a presidential race -- and concedes defeat -- is suddenly barred from leaving the country by a Supreme Court Judge now globally notorious for censoring, imprisoning and otherwise persecuting his critics and opponents of Lula's government. 

It is also worth noting that Bolsonaro's party dominates the Senate, having run on a vow to impeach Moraes, and this is seen by many as a kind of leverage/hostage ploy by Moraes to cling to power. 

Brazilian authorities and media are trying to find out where Flavio Bolsonaro is. Brazil's notorious authoritarian Judge Alexandre de Moraes -- before the votes were counted -- already had an order prepared to seize Bolsonaro's passports and bar him from leaving the country even though **he's been charged with no crime** (there are various pending financial investigations). Moraes signed the order barring Bolsonaro from leaving Brazil SEVEN MINUTES after Lula was declared the winner on Sunday night. A media outlet in Argentina this morning reported that Bolsonaro entered Argentina to fly to the US. His friends and allies deny this, but Flavio could easily just appear in Brazil or even by video and has not done so. Argentina is being sketchy, evasive and somewhat uncooperative with Brazil's federal police (Lula and Milei are obviously not allies). Whatever else is true, it is not exactly a sign of a healthy, normal or functioning democracy when the candidate who narrowly loses a presidential race -- and concedes defeat -- is suddenly barred from leaving the country by a Supreme Court Judge now globally notorious for censoring, imprisoning and otherwise persecuting his critics and opponents of Lula's government. It is also worth noting that Bolsonaro's party dominates the Senate, having run on a vow to impeach Moraes, and this is seen by many as a kind of leverage/hostage ploy by Moraes to cling to power.

— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) October 27, 2026

Brazil's post-election turmoil tests the credibility of Lula and his regime, who say they're the "good guys" fighting against authoritarianism, yet they are using state institutions to attack a political opponent.

Lula nevertheless faces mounting political headwinds after the first-round election. Bolsonaro's party gains in the Senate could complicate the government's socialist agenda of deficit spending and bankrupting the country.

For the Trump administration, Brazil remains key to efforts to counter Chinese influence and rid the hemisphere of nation-killing socialists. Lula's reelection complicates a strategy that has worked in many recent South American elections, from Ecuador to Colombia to Argentina.

Now we wait for a Trump administration to respond to Lula's socialist regime.

Bolsonaro Drops Annulment Bid As Party Concedes To Lula, Vows Congressional "Fortress" Against Socialist Rule

After the Brazilian runoff election, right-wing Flávio Bolsonaro has abandoned plans to seek its annulment, as his Liberal Party has formally recognized the reelection of socialist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

Lula's socialist regime wasted no time attacking Bolsonaro after the election. Federal Police snatched Bolsonaro's passport late Monday, and regime favorite Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes has banned him from leaving the country.

Bolsonaro declared that he is under attack by the socialist regime and that this is merely "a sign that our democracy has failed."

Glenn Greenwald pointed out, "If, by the way, the same situation that just happened in Brazil had happened but with the parties switched ... if Bolsonaro had won last night's election and then a pro-Bolsonaro judge sent the Federal Police to seize Lula's passport and bar him from leaving the country ... every major western media outlet and liberal NGOs would be screaming about the authoritarian attack on Brazil's elections and the destruction of basic freedoms."

Notably, Bolsonaro's proposed annulment challenge centered on a last-minute Supreme Court decision extending voting by two hours.

Bolsonaro has now changed course, saying he would pursue a separate effort to disqualify Lula's ticket over allegations of false information and misuse of public funds, another legal strategy described as having low odds of success.

"I wasn't the one who lost. The system won," Bolsonaro said late Monday.

Bolsonaro continued, "I will bring together the elected lawmakers and senators to organize our strategy and turn the lower house and the Senate into our fortress against the barbarity that is already taking shape with four more years of Lula."

UBS analyst Wensek noted, "If there is a silver lining, Lula will have to build a coalition to pass key policy initiatives through a more right-leaning Senate and Lower House."

Attention now shifts to how Lula and the socialists, praised by the far-left DSA, Democrats, and unhinged Alex Soros, will govern as fiscal strains mount and investors question whether he'll rein in out-of-control spending.

"Lula's surprise victory resets the Brazil trade: expect higher yields, a weaker BRL and pressure on domestic cyclicals and SMIDs. A right-leaning Congress should constrain fiscal expansion, but lower rates and equity flows are delayed," Jefferies analyst Alejandro Anibal Demichelis wrote in a note.

President Trump's US-Russia deal to export diesel and crude cargoes has drawn considerable scrutiny from Western elites as the first shipments could soon reach US shores. Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries, combined with disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, have intensified pressure on the global energy market and refining capacity ahead of the US midterms.

UBS chief economist Arend Kapteyn published new data tracking Russian oil exports. Before reading the note, the assumption would have been that Western sanctions and Ukraine's efforts to cripple Russia's export capacity had delivered a massive blow. In fact, Moscow simply reconfigured its supply chain to send crude and energy products east.

Kapteyn titled the note "Who Is Buying Russia's Oil?"

He said, "The most visible effect of the restrictions on Russia's oil exports seems to have been to redistribute the global supply of oil."

The biggest shift in Moscow's exports has been in their destinations. The EU's share of Russian crude exports collapsed from 48% before the war in Ukraine to just 4% by September, while the combined share purchased by China, India and Turkey jumped from 29% to 77%.

Kapteyn added more color:

In recent months, Russia has begun importing significant volumes of refined petroleum products, reflecting the damage Ukrainian strikes have inflicted on its domestic refining capacity. That is highly unusual for one of the world's largest exporters of diesel, fuel oil and naphtha, and is one factor helping to keep global gasoline prices elevated.By contrast, Russia's crude oil exports have proven remarkably resilient. Despite the EU embargo and the G7 price cap regime, export volumes remain only around 10% below pre-war levels. An estimated 61% of Russian crude now leaves on the so-called "shadow fleet". We note this operates outside Western financing and insurance systems and thereby reducing the effectiveness of the sanctions and price-cap regime. However, it is worth noting that these sanctions are jurisdictional rather than global, which we understand means they do not apply to countries that have not imposed them.

So who is buying all that Russian oil? Today's chart shows one set of estimates (Russia itself stopped publishing data in 2022), which corresponds roughly to the import data of trade partners. The left side of today's chart shows 14-day average export volumes by destination, while the right side compares market shares between January-February 2022 and the latest data. The EU's share of Russian crude exports has collapsed from 48% to just 4% (though for now it is still the largest buyer of Russian LNG), while the combined share of China, India and Turkey has surged from 29% to 77%. Those gains came largely at the expense of other suppliers. In China, Russia's share of mineral fuel imports rose from about 18% before the war to 27% since February 2022, displacing imports from Australia, Iran, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Singapore and the EU. In India, Russia's share jumped from just over 1% to 24%, alongside sharp declines in imports from Nigeria, Iran and Saudi Arabia. All this highlights the fungibility of oil markets: while the sanctions never intended to reduce global supply their most visible effect has been to redistribute the map of global supply.

The immediate takeaway is that Western sanctions and Ukrainian drone strikes have disrupted Russia's energy sector without crippling its crude exports. 

Moscow's pivot toward Asian buyers and reliance on a shadow fleet of tankers have allowed it to continue business as usual, exposing the limits of Western financial warfare and kinetic warfare. 

Last week, Canaccord's critical minerals team highlighted what we call the "great rare earth disconnect": tight supplies and elevated spot prices alongside a vicious bear market in mining stocks that began in early summer and extended into October. 

William Blair's rare-earths analysts also commented on the downturn, challenging the market's expectations that Chinese supply constraints would ease and calling that view "incorrect."

The divergence between ongoing critical-material supply constraints, driven by China's "resource nationalism," and depressed mining stocks has some traders weighing whether shares near 52-week lows represent a buying opportunity.

The VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF (REMX) has fallen roughly 55% from its peak over about 24 weeks, reversing much of its advance from around $32 in spring 2025 to $111 in spring 2026. 

The fund, which holds SQM, Albemarle, China Northern Rare Earth, MP Materials and Almonty Industries, among others, rose about 4% in early Tuesday trading.

The rebound could reflect technical buying after a prolonged selloff, with shares trading near the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the prior rally. It could also signal that investors are reassessing expectations of easing supply constraints and recognizing that China's "quasi-monopoly" on critical materials and resource nationalism won't break anytime soon.

At a moment Washington and Moscow are seeking to improve bilateral relations, and as the Trump administration continues pressuring Ukraine's Zelensky to essentially shut-up and make compromise, European leaders are scrambling for a seat at the table regarding any potential peace deal.

Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store held rare phone calls with President Vladimir Putin Tuesday, after years of lack of any direct contact or diplomacy amid the Ukraine war. The two European presidents later touched base with Zelensky in a phone call as well. The Putin conversation was reportedly initiated by the Finnish and Norwegian sides, and not by Moscow.

The Kremlin, which feels itself in the driver's seat given Trump has lately been publicly chiding Zelensky, issued a statement: "It was emphasized that achieving a just and long-term peace is possible only if the legitimate interests of the Russian Federation are fully and unconditionally taken into account," it said.

"At the same time, attention was drawn to the confrontational policies of EU and NATO countries, which are contributing to the prolongation of the hostilities."

Stubb's office confirmed that much of the conversation centered on preparations for trilateral technical-level meetings set for Abu Dhabi in early November, involving the US, Russia, and Ukraine.

The Finnish readout said (with a hint of defensiveness), "The discussion was frank and substantive. We are neighboring countries to Russia. The outcome of this war will have a direct impact on our and broader European security. Ending the war requires direct discussions."

Last week, after Trump's envoy met with Putin in St. Petersburg, a Kremlin readout indicated "Our president informed Steve Witkoff that we are ready in principle to resume the above-mentioned trilateral talks around November 10 on the main subject. This topic is about building a security system for Russia and Ukraine."

So now that there's clear forward momentum, which is fully backed by the US, European leaders are hurrying to have a say, jumping on the trilateral talks bandwagon.

Russia's RT has noted, "The two Nordic leaders said they took part in the call as leaders of their countries and were not speaking on behalf of Europe."

The expected denunciations fly from other European capitals...

And, "They added that the call was held in consultation with Ukraine to convey its position ahead of the Abu Dhabi talks, and vowed to continue to support Kiev."

Sounding the alarm... over talking about how to achieve peace:

There has of late been significant changes in Washington's posture in Ukraine, the Kremlin has noted this month, and this has caused Moscow's stance to in turn be "re-evaluated, taking into account the signals received from the Americans."