CMR is the leading provider of funding and management support for small to medium-sized businesses and entrepreneurs 

First it was revealed this week that UAE had directly attacked Iran in retaliatory strikes earlier in Operation Epic Fury, and now it has come to light that the Saudis did the same, and in multiple strike operations.

Reuters reports Tuesday that "Saudi Arabia launched numerous, unpublicized strikes on Iran in retaliation for attacks carried out in the kingdom during the Middle East war, two Western officials briefed on the matter, and two Iranian officials said."

"The Saudi attacks, not previously reported, mark the first time that the kingdom is known to have directly carried out military action on Iranian soil and show it is becoming much bolder in defending itself against its main regional rival," the report continues.

"The attacks, launched by the Saudi Air Force, were assessed to have been carried out in late March, the two Western officials said," Reuters notes further. One of the sources described this military actions as "tit-for-tat strikes in retaliation for when Saudi [Arabia] was hit."

The revelation suggests that even as the Trump White House tried to present this is a very limited war, or even a mere US "excursion" - as Trump previously said, it was on the brink of spiraling into an all-out regional war involving Gulf allies hitting back directly at the Islamic Republic.

By and large the Gulf allies relied solely on the US and Israel to pummel Iran during the prior 38 days of heavy bombing which marked the peak of Operation Epic Fury.

This as the Gulf absorbed the bulk of Iran's retaliation. Iran sent hundreds if not thousands of ballistic missiles and drones on Gulf energy, infrastructure, and even central areas of cities.

It had remained at the time an open question of whether countries like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar and Kuwait would actually then go on the offensive. It seems that to some degree they did, and the public didn't know about it.

Neither the Saudis nor Emirates have publicly acknowledged direct attacks on Iran, and per the new Reuters reporting Tuesday:

Saudi Arabia has meanwhile sought to prevent the conflict from escalating and has stayed in regular contact with Iran, including via Tehran's ambassador in Riyadh. He did not respond to a request for comment.

The senior Saudi foreign ministry official did not directly address whether a de-escalation agreement had been struck with Iran, but said: "We reaffirm Saudi Arabia's consistent position advocating de-escalation, self-restraint and the reduction of tensions in pursuit of the stability, security and prosperity of the region and its people."

Iranian officials declared they were primarily targeting US assets and military bases, and further vowed to 'punish' these countries for ever hosting American bases in the first place.

But this new info showing that the Saudis and UAE in had already in effect joined the US military campaign marks yet more evidence of escalation. The ceasefire meanwhile seems effectively dead at this stage. NBC is now reporting the Pentagon actually considering re-naming Iran war ‘Sledgehammer’ if ceasefire collapses.

Iran on Tuesday revealed its demands in a counteroffer to the United States that President Trump shot down on Sunday, which has put the whole conflict and Pakistan-mediated talks in a holding pattern and stalemate, as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively blocked.

The demands hinge on war reparations, Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and an end to US sanctions - things which the White House balked at, with war reparations especially being focus of rejection by the US side, and the lack of taking up the nuclear issue, which Iran has insisted is a non-starter and would only be dealt with after the war is settled.

Trump had previously made clear on Truth Social that "I have just read the response from Iran’s so-called ‘Representatives.’ I don’t like it — TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!"

Al Jazeera correspondent Ali Hashem has listed the following five conditions that it sees as the basis for reentering talks:

1. Ending the war on all fronts, including Lebanon

2. Lifting all sanctions

3. Releasing frozen Iranian assets

4. Compensation for war damages and losses

5. Recognition of Iran’s sovereign rights over the Strait of Hormuz

Again, all this according to Tehran must be agreed to while at the same time Iran is pushing back against nuclear negotiations.

In a Monday press briefing Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei had publicly alluded to several of these, including in his words, "Demanding an end to the war, lifting the blockade and piracy, and releasing Iranian assets that have been unjustly frozen in banks due to U.S. pressure."

Also, there was mention of "Safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz and establishing security in the region and Lebanon were other demands of Iran, which are considered a generous and responsible offer for regional security" - before talks could begin in good faith.

Tehran apparently feels it can weather the tightening economic noose its under, given Tanker Trackers on Tuesday said Iran has not successfully exported any crude oil by sea over the past 28 days.

To our best knowledge, Iran hasn't successfully exported* any crude oil by sea over the past 28 days. Some refined products managed to escape because US OFAC did not slap sanctions on those tankers.

In addition, Kharg Island hasn't loaded any tankers since 2026-05-06 as a result…

— TankerTrackers.com, Inc. (@TankerTrackers) May 12, 2026

Trump, just before his departure to China, remarked to Axios: "Iran will either do the right thing or we will finish the job... we are either gonna make a deal or they will be decimated."

The NY Federal published its latest report on Household Debt and Credit for the first quarter: the report showed total household debt increased by $18 billion, just a 0.1% increase, in Q1 2026, to $18.8 trillion. 

Some details:

• Mortgage balances shown on consumer credit reports grew slightly by $21 billion during the first quarter of 2026 and totaled $13.19 trillion at the end of March.
• Balances on home equity lines of credit (HELOC) rose by $12 billion, marking the 16th consecutive quarterly increase. Outstanding HELOC balances now total $446 billion, $129 billion above the low reached in 2022Q1.
• Non-housing debt balances declined by $15 billion, or 0.3%, from 2025Q4. This decline was driven primarily by a seasonal decrease in credit card balances, which fell by $25 billion and now stand at $1.25 trillion.
• Student loan balances were essentially flat, decreasing by $6 billion and standing at $1.66 trillion.
• Auto loan balances grew by $18 billion, to $1.69 trillion.
• Other balances, which include retail cards and consumer finance loans, edged down by $2 billion to $562 billion.

The volume of newly originated credit held steady in the first quarter of 2026 for both mortgages and auto loans.  Mortgage originations, measured as appearances of new mortgages on consumer credit reports and including both refinance and purchase originations, were largely steady with $530 billion newly originated in 2026Q1.

About 59,000 individuals had new foreclosures on their credit reports, a slight increase from the previous quarter.

There were $182 billion in new auto loans appearing on credit reports during the first quarter.

Aggregate limits on credit cards continued to rise, with a $60 billion (1.1%) uptick in the first quarter, to ~$5.5 trillion.  Home equity lines of credit (HELOC) limits rose, albeit at a slightly slower pace, by $14 billion (1.4%), continuing an expansion in HELOCs that began in 2022.

The total balance of loans delinquent at least 30 days remained unchanged at 4.8% from the prior quarter after six quarters of steady increase. Still, the overall delinquency rate matched the highest level reported since 2017. Transition into early delinquency held steady for auto loans, but ticked down for credit cards, from 8.7% annually to 8.6%, and for mortgages from 3.9% to 3.8%. 

“Aggregate household debt levels rose slightly, with modest increases in most debt types offsetting a seasonal decline in credit card balances,” said Daniel Mangrum, Research Economist at the New York Fed. “Delinquency transition rates were mostly steady, while student loan delinquencies are returning to pre-pandemic levels.”

More concerning is that the percentage of loan balances that are seriously delinquent and set to transition to default/discharge continues rising - student loan delinquency rate increased to 10.3% of balances 90+ days delinquent, up from the 9.6% observed in 2025Q4 - and while it hit a new post-covid high for student loans after the Biden moratorium ended last year, the credit card picture is most dire, with the percentage there on pace to surpass the financial crisis record in the next few quarters. As shown below, transition rates into serious delinquency were mostly unchanged for auto loans and credit cards, but increased slightly for mortgages from 1.4 % annually to 1.5%. The student loan delinquency rate increased to 10.3% of balances 90+ days delinquent, up from the 9.6% observed in Q4 2025.

Some more details: 

• The student loan transition rate into serious delinquency, measured as a four-quarter moving sum, declined from 16.2% in Q4 2025 to 10.9% this quarter, reflecting a slower pace of new student loan delinquencies in the first quarter relative to the previous year.
• 2.6 million student loan borrowers who were more than 120 days past due had their loans transferred to the U.S Department of Education’s Default Resolution Group.

About 124,000 consumers had a bankruptcy notation added to their credit reports in 2026Q1, a pace unchanged from the previous quarter. The percentage of consumers with a third-party collection account on their credit report worsened slightly to 5.0 percent

Taking a closer look at the army of defaulting "students", the WSJ writes that millions of borrowers are defaulting on their student loans, and they are nearly 40 years old on average. That is nearly 2½ years older than the profile of a student-loan defaulter before the pandemic. Borrowers 50 and older are now at higher risk of default than younger borrowers. 

Since a pandemic-era pause on student-loan repayments ended in 2023, the federal government has been pushing people to start repaying their loans. In the fourth quarter of last year, those who failed to restart payments began defaulting, meaning they hit 270 days past due on their payments. The New York Fed estimated that more than 3.5 million people defaulted between October and March.

The Fed report offers a look at who is defaulting:

• Most recently, the share of student-loan balances past due increased to just over 10%, nearing prepandemic levels.
• The average borrower in default is more likely to live in the South, though borrowers are defaulting across the country.
• Most of the newly defaulted borrowers weren’t past due on their student loans before the pandemic.
• Borrowers who have defaulted on their student loans are struggling to make other debt payments, too. Nearly 40% of those with auto loans are past due, 56% with at least one credit card are past due and 20% with a mortgage are past due. Loan delinquencies have been broadly trending higher.
• Some of these borrowers are likely parents who borrowed on behalf of their children, New York Fed researchers said.

The report found that Gen X borrowers, including those age 50 to 61, have the highest average student-loan balance of any age group. Many of them either reached college age as the modern federal student-loan system was forming or borrowed later, likely on behalf of their children.  

Just as concerning is that in late 2024, borrowers who missed their student-loan payments saw steep drops in their credit scores for the first time in years. 

The Trump administration has been revamping the federal student-loan system, emphasizing repayment. It is a reversal from the Biden administration, which pushed policies to reduce monthly payments for borrowers and get them closer to student-loan forgiveness. 

The biggest consequence for defaulted borrowers is that they could have their wages, tax returns and Social Security garnished. But the Education Department has delayed its garnishment plans. 

Finally, the Saving on a Valuable Education plan, or SAVE, one of the more affordable student-loan repayment plans introduced by the Biden administration, is ending, forcing millions of borrowers to transition to new plans. The new Repayment Assistance Plan, or RAP, is being introduced in July. As millions of borrowers transition out of SAVE, they will see their monthly payments increase under other income-based repayment plans. Many of them could also default on their student loans in the coming months, according to the Fed.

Source: NY Fed

Authored by Troy Myers via The Epoch Times,

A public interest law firm announced Monday it was suing Illinois over its use of race in drawing congressional maps.

The lawsuit accuses the state of violating the 15th Amendment, which prohibits government from denying a citizen the right to vote based on race, and the Voting Rights Act of 1965 in light of a recent Supreme Court ruling, which found district boundaries drawn primarily with racial considerations are unconstitutional.

The Public Interest Legal Foundation filed the lawsuit May 8 in the U.S. District Court for the Central District of Illinois after the high court’s decision in Louisiana v. Callais on April 29.

“States may not use race to allocate power,” the group’s president and general counsel, John Christian Adams, said.

The suit specifically named Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, the Illinois State Board of Elections, and its executive director Bernadette Matthews as defendants.

None immediately responded to a request for comment from The Epoch Times.

Pritzker signed a new congressional map for his state in 2021, and he said at the time that the “Illinois Voting Rights Act of 2011 ensures redistricting plans are crafted in a way that preserves clusters of minority voters if they are of size or cohesion to exert collective electoral power. The maps signed into law today meet those requirements to adequately preserve minority representation and reflect the diversity of our state.”

The Public Interest Legal Foundation argued in the lawsuit that this statement from the governor is a direct admission to violating federal law in using race to draw districts.

Furthermore, the Illinois Voting Rights Act of 2011 illegally mandated a racial map, ordering districts to be created as crossover, coalition, or influence districts, the group said.

According to the state’s legislation, a crossover district is where majority voters vote with the racial or language minority to elect their preferred candidate.

A coalition district is where more than one group of racial or language minorities can form a coalition to elect a candidate of all of their choice. An influence district is where a racial or language minority can impact the outcome of an election even if its preferred candidate cannot be elected.

All three types of districts in Illinois require “drawing district lines to preserve deliberate racial percentages, racial majorities, and the deliberate preservation of racial influence districts,” the lawsuit read.

The public interest law firm is representing Jeanne Ives, an Illinois resident, voter, and former state legislator. Attorneys for Ives said she has seen the state’s redistricting up close and how it violates the U.S. Constitution.

The Public Interest Legal Foundation is also currently challenging California’s congressional map, using the Louisiana v. Callais decision to try to invalidate it.

Since that Supreme Court ruling, Republican-led states have leapt at the opportunity to redraw their congressional districts ahead of the midterm elections this year with the GOP’s House majority on the line.

The coast-to-coast redistricting battle has shifted further in favor of Republicans following the high court’s ruling.

On May 8, Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey signed a bill that would authorize a new primary election if a court ruled favorably on the state’s redistricting litigation. Alabama also filed an emergency appeal to the Supreme Court to rule in its case, which was granted Monday.

Tennessee already passed redistricting legislation to carve up the state’s only blue district.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis signed the Sunshine State’s new map into law on May 4.

A South Carolina plan for redistricting is also advancing through the state’s legislature.

Meanwhile, Virginia’s Supreme Court struck down an attempt at a new map favoring Democrats. The state has now appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court.

The Public Interest Legal Foundation’s lawsuit against Illinois and California’s maps, if successful, could tip the scales toward Republicans and set an example for other Democratic-run states.

Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to raise the issue of increasingly costly US arms transfers to Taiwan during their bilateral summit at the end of this week, spanning Thursday through Friday. Taiwan of course remains the "core of China's core interests" - as Beijing has in the recent past characterized the issue. While Trump officials have previewed that it will be focused on trade and investment, the White House too is reportedly placing Taiwan and regional geopolitical hot button issues on the agenda.

"I'm going to have that discussion with President Xi," Trump told reporters at the White House, specifically on the question of weapons sales. "President Xi would like us not to, and I’ll have that discussion. That's one of the many things I’ll be talking about."

Also there's the looming question of the future of the Iran war and blockaded Strait of Hormuz. Currently there's a stalemated situation and supposed ceasefire which is barely holding. By many accounts, Trump was hopeful that the Iran 'excursion' would be wrapped up by now, but it now seems to be sliding into protracted quagmire - critics point out.

The WSJ says that Beijing is feeling confident as it prepares to receive Trump and what's looking to be a rather large entourage:

But behind the scenes, Beijing feels more emboldened, and more insistent on defending areas it regards as vital to its long-term strategic interests.

These include resisting U.S. pressure to relax its grip over global supply chains and fundamentally rebalance trade between the two countries. They also include urging Washington to look the other way as it pressures Taiwan, the self-ruled island that Beijing claims as its own, and as it projects military power across Asia.

“They feel very well about how last year played out,” said Jonathan Czin, a fellow at the Washington-based Brookings Institution and a former U.S. intelligence officer focused on China. “They showed they could weather the storm and the administration had to climb down from the tariffs and spend most of the past year trying to mollify China.”

As for more implications of the Iran war dragging on as Trump goes to Beijing, CNBC writes:

Iran’s ambassador to China Reza Rahmani Fazli in a Tuesday post on X pressed Tehran's case with Beijing, saying that the relationship between the two is too strong for the U.S. to overcome.

The bottom line is that higher energy prices are baked in for the foreseeable future. The price of crude oil makes up about half of the cost of a gallon of gas, according to the Energy Information Administration. 

And U.S. elections are less than six months away. The 2026 midterm elections will be a crucial referendum on Trump and the Republican Party as they seek to retain a lock on both chambers in Congress.

Trump early Tuesday put out the following message on Truth Social, teasing that the next regime change operations could be unleashed on China's small island-nation ally in America's immediate backyard...

For some further big picture analysis on how the Iran gambit has raised the stakes, and made the Beijing summit more unpredictable, the below is some fresh Rabobank commentary outlining related developments to watch:

In a case of curious timing, the US just imposed fresh sanctions on individuals and firms involved in facilitating Iranian oil sales to China, and Acting Secretary of the Navy Hung Cao yesterday released a new 30-year shipbuilding plan. That plan anticipates the acquisition of 11 nuclear-powered Trump class battleships, new underwater drones, and an ongoing review to the Ford class aircraft carrier design to increase lethality and reliability while reducing unit costs and production lead times. The planned expansion of the US fleet and shipbuilding industrial base is undoubtedly a reaction to China’s growing naval strength and substantial advantage in production capacity. The message to Xi is an unsubtle one.

The FT’s Gideon Rachman characterises Trump as arriving at Xi’s court in a state of supplication, having effectively lost the trade war vs China and the shooting war vs Iran. This perhaps overstates the weakness of Trump’s position by ignoring the fact that the US has tightened its grip on global energy supply chains and has shown that is has the power to put its foot on the hosepipe of Chinese energy imports whenever it likes. In the flurry of commentary over China’s bumper trade surplus in April, it seems to have been missed that import volumes for crude oil were down sharply, but values were higher. Yesterday’s April PPI figures for China also underscored the uncomfortable effects that the Iran war is having on the Chinese industrial economy.

Xi will be acutely aware of this, and he will also be aware that the US holds similar power to disrupt Chinese food imports if it was of a mind to do so. Seapower IS power, as the shipbuilding plan should remind us all. In this respect, Trump holds better cards than the FT is giving him credit for. Perhaps it is no coincidence that China bought more soybeans in April than it had done for months.

Some more of Trump's latest commentary amid his hope for a 'good' Xi meeting:

Trump: If you have the right president, I don't think Taiwan invasion will happen. I have a very good relationship with President Xi.

We're 9,500 miles away. He's 67 miles away. But there’s a lot of support for Taiwan from Japan and countries in that area. 2X pic.twitter.com/8ipHIKy4pM

— Tymofiy Mylovanov (@Mylovanov) May 12, 2026

Below is a preview of the day-by-day schedule and what to expect, via Newsquawk.

*  *  *

PREVIEW: Trump-Xi Summit to take place in Beijing on May 14th-15th

• US President Trump and Chinese President Xi are set to meet in Beijing for the first time since October 2025. The public tone is expected to be warm and friendly, while the substance of the meeting will cover a range of topics.
• No breakthrough is expected in US-China relations, with attention instead focused on implications for Iran and Taiwan.The situation in Iran will likely be one of the core topics, with some fearing an Iran-for-Taiwan bargain.

SCHEDULE

• Trump is expected to arrive in Beijing on the evening of Wednesday, 13th May.
• The main Trump-Xi talks are expected across Thursday, 14th May and Friday, 15th May.

THURSDAY

• The White House said Trump will meet Xi on Thursday at 10:15 Beijing time / 03:15BST / 22:15EDT.
• Thursday is expected to be the main ceremonial and diplomatic day, including a welcome ceremony, Temple of Heaven visit, formal bilateral meeting and state banquet.
• The banquet is scheduled for Thursday at 18:00 Beijing time / 11:00BST / 06:00EDT.

FRIDAY

• Discussions are expected to continue on Friday, including extended talks and a working lunch before Trump’s departure later in the day.

AGENDA

• Iran: A primary focus will be the war in Iran, with the US pressing China to use its influence over Tehran to support de-escalation, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and curb oil-funded escalation.
• Taiwan: Taiwan is expected to be one of the most sensitive issues, with concern focused on whether Xi pushes Trump for softer US language on Taiwan independence or restraint on arms sales.
• Russia: The US is expected to raise China’s economic ties with Russia, including revenue flows, dual-use goods, components, parts and potential weapons-related support.
• Strategic guardrails: The leaders are expected to discuss a possible formal AI communication channel to manage military and cyber risks, alongside nuclear arms-control issues, although Beijing remains cautious on nuclear arsenal transparency.
• Commercial: The summit could produce major “big win” announcements, including Chinese purchases of Boeing aircraft, agricultural products such as soybeans and beef, and energy.
• Board of Trade/Investment: Proposals are on the table for a bilateral Board of Trade and Board of Investment, designed to manage trade and investment flows through formal channels rather than relying mainly on tariff escalation.

DETAILS

Iran/Strait of Hormuz

• Primary summit focus: The war in Iran, which began after US and Israeli strikes on 28th February, is expected to be one of the dominant geopolitical issues at the meeting.
• US pressure on Beijing: Washington is said to be pressing China to use its influence over Tehran, given China’s role as a major buyer of Iranian oil, to push Iran towards a deal and support efforts to end the conflict.
• Strait of Hormuz: The US is expected to press China to help secure the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
• China’s position: Beijing has so far avoided joining a US-led pressure campaign against Tehran, while continuing to call for de-escalation and a diplomatic resolution.
• China’s exposure: China’s dependence on Gulf energy flows gives it a direct interest in ending the Hormuz disruption.
• Sanctions: Days before the summit, on May 11th, the US issued new sanctions against three individuals and nine companies accused of facilitating Iranian oil shipments to China.

Taiwan

• Arms sales: Trump said he will discuss US arms sales to Taiwan with Xi, alongside other sensitive issues, including Hong Kong media tycoon Jimmy Lai. The Trump admin announced a more than USD 11bln weapons package for Taiwan in December, the largest-ever US weapons package for Taiwan.
• No policy change: US officials have said the Trump-Xi summit signals no change in longstanding US policy toward Taiwan.
• China’s position: China said its stance against US arms sales to Taiwan is “consistent and clear.” Beijing continues to frame Taiwan as a core issue and a red line in US-China relations.
• Semiconductor angle: Taiwan’s strategic importance is also tied to the US technology supply chain, particularly semiconductors and advanced manufacturing.
• South China Sea: Regional security is likely to come up alongside Taiwan, military communication and wider US-China strategic competition. The South China Sea remains a persistent flashpoint, with US concerns around Chinese military activity and Chinese objections to US regional deployments and alliances in the region, such as the AUKUS security pact.

Iran-for-Taiwan Risk

• Linkage: There has been reporting and speculation that Beijing could seek to trade help on Iran or the Strait of Hormuz for US restraint on Taiwan, including softer language on Taiwan independence or reduced pressure around arms sales.
• Concerns: The concern is that Beijing may offer help on Iran or the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in return for softer US language on Taiwan or restraint on arms sales. Politico reported that diplomats from Asian and European countries are worried Trump could make an off-script statement that appears to shift US policy on Taiwan. Taiwanese officials have expressed concern about being “on the menu” during the Trump-Xi talks.
• Shift in Language: The key wording risk is a shift from the current US formulation of “we do not support Taiwan independence” to Beijing’s preferred wording of “we oppose Taiwan independence.” Desks suggest that a shift would be significant as Beijing could use it to challenge routine US-Taiwan engagement, including arms sales, lawmaker visits and other political contacts.
• US Position: Despite the speculation, US officials have publicly stated that US policy toward Taiwan will not change at the summit.

China's Backing of Iran and Russia

• Direct confrontation: Trump is expected to press Xi over China’s economic and material support for Iran and Russia.
• Iranian oil: China remains a major buyer of Iranian oil, and Washington views those flows as helping Tehran withstand US pressure and finance military activity.
• Russia links: The US is also expected to raise China’s economic ties with Russia, including whether Chinese trade is helping Moscow sustain its war effort.
• Dual-use goods: Officials cited concerns around Chinese dual-use goods, components, parts and potential weapons exports to Iran and Russia.
• Iran weapons sanctions: On 8th May, the US imposed sanctions on individuals and companies, including China- and Hong Kong-based entities, accused of helping Iran obtain materials for Shahed drones and ballistic missiles.
• Iran oil sanctions: On 11 May, the US imposed separate sanctions on three individuals and nine companies accused of facilitating Iranian oil shipments to China.
• 50% tariff threat: Trump previously threatened 50% tariffs on imports from countries supplying military weapons to Iran, with no exemptions.

Trade

• Trump tariff stance: Trump commented that the US needs more tariffs, keeping tariff risk firmly on the table.
• Trade-truce extension: The two sides are expected to discuss whether to extend the existing trade-war truce.
• Unclear timing: A US official said it is not yet clear whether the agreement will be extended this week, but expressed confidence that it will eventually be extended.
• October meeting: Trump and Xi's last meeting in October in South Korea resulted in a pause to a trade war that had seen the US impose triple-digit tariffs on Chinese goods and Beijing threaten rare earth restrictions.
• Tariff Legality: Trump has vowed to reimpose some tariffs through alternative legal avenues after the Supreme Court said in February.
• Investments
• Trade and investment forums: Reports suggested that the US and China are expected to agree on forums to facilitate mutual trade and investment.
• Board of Trade / Board of Investment: A Board of Trade and Board of Investment may be formally announced, although officials said these mechanisms may require further work before implementation.
• Chinese purchase announcements: China is expected to announce purchases related to Boeing (BA) aircraft, US agriculture and energy.
• Sectors to watch: The main areas to watch are aircraft, agriculture, energy, trade flows, investment access, market-opening commitments, payments access, technology restrictions and regulatory approvals.
• Delegation: Executives from Tesla (TSLA), Apple (AAPL), Boeing (BA), GE Aerospace (GE), Meta Platforms (META), BlackRock (BLK), Blackstone (BX), Micron (MU), Mastercard (MA), Qualcomm (QCOM), Visa (V), Cargill, Coherent (COHR) and Illumina (ILMN) are part of, or linked to, the US business delegation. Cisco (CSCO) was invited but its CEO is not attending due to earnings, while NVIDIA (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang is not attending.

AI

• AI channel: Trump and Xi are expected to discuss creating a formal US-China communication channel on AI-related security risks.
• US concern: US officials are increasingly concerned about advanced Chinese AI models and their potential military, cyber and intelligence uses.
• Military risk: Talks are expected to cover AI risks in autonomous weapons, cyber operations and military decision-making.
• Nuclear guardrails: AI may also be discussed alongside nuclear stability, including keeping AI out of nuclear launch decisions.
• Export controls: Any AI dialogue will sit against the backdrop of US chip controls and wider tech restrictions on China.
• Nuclear arms-control
• US stance: Washington has long sought nuclear arms-control talks with Beijing.
• China's stance: China has privately told the US it has no current interest in sitting down for nuclear arms-control discussions.
• No breakthrough: Expectations for a breakthrough on nuclear arms control remain low, but even agreement to continue dialogue would be net constructive.

Fentanyl

• US stance: The US is expected to press China on precursor chemicals and enforcement against supply chains linked to the opioid crisis.

US derivatives exchange CME Group and index provider Silicon Data have teamed up to create a futures market for computing power, a key source driving the AI boom. Bloomberg reports that the futures will help traders, financial firms, AI builders and cloud providers manage volatility and price swings. Indexes from market-intelligence firm Silicon Data will help underpin the products. The project is still pending regulatory review.

“As the backbone of the digital economy, compute is the new oil of the 21st century,” CME CEO Terry Duffy said in the statement. “Every AI model trained, every transaction cleared and every byte of data processed runs on compute, which is becoming a fast-emerging asset class in its own right.”

CME’s addition of compute futures signals a broader shift to make the asset tradable like other commodities. Creating a futures market can help make the costs more transparent and raise overall market efficiency. 

Computing power, better known as "compute", has seen soaring demand as AI companies use it to power their systems. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said last week that a new asset class will likely be buying futures of compute given the shortage and high demand.

Futures contracts, which give investors the ability to bet on the future value of a commodity such as oil or metals at a certain date, are traded on exchanges such as Chicago-based CME’s, and require a brokerage account that’s approved to trade futures.

The need for compute power has been growing as AI technologies have scaled. But until now, it’s been difficult to hedge against price swings and other costs.

The index from Silicon Data, which is backed by trading firm DRW Holdings, provides a benchmark for traders and others to follow, giving insight into the cost of goods for those building AI products or in need of graphics processing unit computing power.

Silicon Data, founded by former DRW trader Carmen Li, created daily GPU benchmarks for on-demand rental rates, giving customers insight into the cost of goods for those building AI products or in need of GPU computing power.

The company’s Silicon Data H100 Rental Index tracks the hourly cost of renting a GPU, which is the workhorse for training AI models.

A data center typically uses hundreds or even thousands of processors, which can cost thousands of dollars.