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Sun, 20 Sep 2026 03:20:00 +0000 The Apocalyptic Game: Panic And Opportunity
The Apocalyptic Game: Panic And Opportunity
The Apocalyptic Game: Panic And Opportunity
Authored by Sasha Gong via American Greatness ,
America's latest argument over artificial intelligence has suddenly become apocalyptic. Former Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxon accused AI companies of "gambling with our lives." Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei urged the industry to slow the development of frontier models, an idea supported by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Elon Musk. At the same time, opposition to the data centers needed to power AI is spreading across the United States.
China has noticed. X recently uncovered a suspected Chinese influence network of roughly 200,000 fake accounts; about 200 of them were directly involved in amplifying claims that American data centers were raising electricity prices and overwhelming the power grid.
This does not mean that criticism of AI or data centers is manufactured in Beijing. Concerns about electricity costs, water use, pollution, cyberattacks, job losses, and mass surveillance are real. But China does not need to invent American divisions. It needs only to identify, amplify, and exploit them.
Modern democracies periodically succumb to predictions that a new technology will destroy humanity. The fear may be legitimate, but its political consequences are not evenly distributed. Democracies permit protest, litigation, regulation, and obstruction. They may even abandon a technology out of fear.
Dictatorships suppress debate, concentrate resources, and use their rivals' hesitation to catch up.
The first great technological apocalypse began with the atomic bomb.
As the Manhattan Project approached completion in 1945, scientists considered whether an atomic explosion might ignite nitrogen in the atmosphere or trigger an uncontrollable reaction in the oceans. Edward Teller raised the possibility; Hans Bethe and others calculated that the risk was physically negligible. The Trinity test proceeded.
The question nevertheless haunted Robert Oppenheimer. After Hiroshima and Nagasaki, he feared that scientists had opened a Pandora's box. When Washington decided to develop the hydrogen bomb after the Soviet atomic test, he opposed it on moral and strategic grounds.
Oppenheimer's Communist associations then turned a policy dispute into a political scandal. His wife and brother were members of the Communist Party USA (CPUSA), and he had many pro-Soviet acquaintances. Meanwhile, actual Soviet spies inside the Manhattan Project - including Klaus Fuchs and Theodore Hall - passed crucial nuclear information to Moscow.
The Soviet Union tested an atomic bomb in 1949 and a thermonuclear device in 1953. China tested its first atomic bomb in 1964, shortly after emerging from a famine that killed 40 million people. Neither Communist regime permitted a genuine public debate over the wisdom of nuclear competition.
The West did. Scientists, churches, students, and citizens organized enormous anti-nuclear movements. Their pressure contributed to test-ban treaties and arms control negotiations. Yet Americans still understood that the danger came not only from nuclear weapons but also from the regimes possessing them. After Sputnik in 1957, few believed the United States could safely withdraw from technological competition while the Soviet Union continued advancing.
After the Cold War, climate change became the next vehicle for apocalyptic politics.
Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth turned complex climate models into images of approaching catastrophe. Greta Thunberg transformed policy disagreements into moral indictments. Claims that humanity had only "12 years" remaining circulated widely.
Fear of climate change converted a scientific problem into an ideological commandment. Energy restrictions, endless permitting, penalties on traditional industries, and costly transitions were presented as the only acceptable path. These policies greatly contributed to and accelerated Western deindustrialization.
China followed a different course. Unrestrained by voters, environmental groups, or local governments, Beijing concentrated subsidies, land, energy, and credit to build complete industrial supply chains. The West congratulated itself for reducing domestic emissions while transferring production to China. It then discovered that it depended on China for pharmaceuticals, rare earths, batteries, solar panels, and electronics.
The pattern is now repeating with AI.
While Americans debate moratoriums, China is treating artificial intelligence, robotics, and computing infrastructure as pillars of national power. Its "Eastern Data, Western Computing" strategy is creating an integrated national computing network, moving the eastern seaboard's data-processing demands to western provinces with abundant land and energy. Beijing intends to control not only AI models but also the electricity, chips, servers, communications systems, and data centers that sustain them.
China is also competing to write the rules. In 2026, 29 countries signed an agreement in Shanghai establishing the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization, which Beijing describes as the first intergovernmental organization devoted to AI. China does not plan to pause while America debates whether the future is too dangerous to build.
AI requires serious safeguards: independent testing, cybersecurity standards, protection against biological misuse, transparent energy pricing, and accountability for harms. But regulation should make development safer, not make development impossible. Data-center projects should bear their actual costs, but local objections cannot become a nationwide veto over the infrastructure of the next industrial age.
Open debate is one of democracy's moral strengths. The power to suppress debate is one of authoritarianism's strategic advantages. When democratic caution becomes paralysis, freedom itself becomes vulnerable to exploitation.
America can decide how it develops artificial intelligence. It cannot decide whether artificial intelligence will continue to develop. If the United States stops because it fears the future, China will not stop with it.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 09/19/2026 - 23:20 Close
Sun, 20 Sep 2026 02:45:00 +0000 Military Report Details Six UFOs Traveling At 480 MPH
Military Report Details Six UFOs Traveling At 480 MPH
Newly public military records are offering another look at unexplained objects encountered by U.S. forces, including a cluster reportedly moving through Middle Eastern airspace a
Read more.....
Military Report Details Six UFOs Traveling At 480 MPH
Newly public military records are offering another look at unexplained objects encountered by U.S. forces, including a cluster reportedly moving through Middle Eastern airspace at extraordinary speed, according to the NY Post .
According to a CENTCOM account from 2025, military personnel tracked six round objects traveling together at about 480 mph. Their flight path was unusual enough to draw attention, with the objects repeatedly altering course. Military video from the encounter shows several small objects crossing the sky above an arid landscape.
The Post wrote:
A 2025 report from US Central Command (CENTCOM) details a sighting of “six small spherical objects, grouped together” and “frequently changing direction” at 480 mph. Accompanying the report was one minute of video footage showing the objects as they flew over what appeared to be a desert region.
Another video, from 2023, captured circular objects flying over the Yellow Sea that were spotted by an infrared sensor aboard a US military platform.
In a separate case that year, a Colorado police officer spent about 15 minutes recording a stationary, silent object displaying several different colored lights.
The Post writes that some of the material reaches much further back. In 1952, Navy warrant officer Delbert Newhouse filmed a formation of bright objects while traveling through Utah. The case eventually became part of Project Blue Book, the Air Force's long-running investigation into reports of unidentified objects in American skies.
Officials explored mundane explanations for the Utah footage, ranging from balloons to birds. One Air Force review ultimately attributed the objects to seagulls circling in rising air, although another examination found aspects of their brightness difficult to reconcile with ordinary birds.
The records are part of the government's continuing release of historical and more recent UAP material, providing additional documentation of sightings that military personnel and investigators have examined over decades.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 09/19/2026 - 22:45 Close
Sun, 20 Sep 2026 02:10:00 +0000 'Princes Of The Dollar': Why QE Is Over
'Princes Of The Dollar': Why QE Is Over
'Princes Of The Dollar': Why QE Is Over
Authored by Kane McGukin via Bombthrower ,
What the G20, Werner, and Warsh tell us about America's new monetary playbook
In every transition, there are road signs along the way. Matt Dines has been one of the more accurate minds of late on the monetary and geopolitical transition we are living through.
His and Camron Otsuka's commentary earlier this month on Mine Print Hash , post the G20 meeting in North Carolina, sheds a lot of light on major sticking points that will pave the way for both future policy and monetary frameworks. This will not happen overnight, but at the same time we'll likely look back and say, "man, the world changed fast."
VIDEO
A few highlights that matter:
1. The Financial Stability Board (FSB ). Just as Great Depression meetings brought new entities for the next cycle, G20 meetings post-GFC brought the FSB for the same reason. New rules to pave the way for stability in a new economic era (2009 Pittsburgh summit). According to Dines FSB brings AI into the mix, plugging it into the Basel Accords, the last of which, Basel III, an update required because of the financial behaviors and shortcomings that caused the GFC.
As Dines points out, all we need now is a final agreement so all parties can play nice around the new rails, i.e. stablecoin/Bitcoin/SOFR rails. Global stablecoin arrangements will take final shape after the announcement of a Bretton Woods 2.0. Something I've discussed many times over, and something that feels nearer and nearer by the day. The most important point? Bessent has basically championed this from day one.
As Werner's model suggests (see point four), Bessent opposes the state picking winners directly, but supports guiding private capital toward strategic ends. Video referenced in Samson's post.
VIDEO
2. Bringing forward the private sector as a way to grow our way out of this. What's critical to understand here is that during the GFC, entities and individuals were overleveraged. To combat this, the central bank expanded its balance sheet to take on all the underwater debt. Today, the script is flipped. The private sector is relatively unlevered, and the central bank is overlevered. This is important because the only way to grow an economy is to guide credit towards productive use cases. Regardless of opinion, this has been the underlying basis of the early-stage beginnings of all successful economies and empires for centuries (see Werner). For those keeping score at home, these are the breadcrumbs we've been given to better understand where monetary and fiscal policy are going (Office of Strategic Capital ).
3. G20 is bringing in banks and private institutions, which is a paradigm shift in how credit allocation works. This is the announcement. We are going to run a different playbook for our monetary framework from now on. This is the only way out. The only way back to some state of "normal". This is exactly what Werner lays out in the Princes of the Yen. An in-depth study of Japan and other great banking empires. Our "new approach" will be one that has succeeded many times in the past. Including during the creation of America. Why? Because this style best achieves rebuilding the US' industrial capacity - think modernization of infrastructure. Today's infrastructure and infrastructure for the 21st-century is inherently digital. That's why capital formation is being directed and pointed at all things AI and digital. This is why all these related industries are points of "national security". This is what is meant by "Hamiltonian policy", a notion we've discussed before .
In short, exactly as Dines pointed out, you're going to have to pick sides - US or China. This is what is meant by the new multi-polar world. Believe it or not, for the first time in more than two decades, "we're actually trying to accomplish something".
4. Credit expansion is the only way to get growth (PofY), which is why Main Street over Wall Street matters. See the Foundry School to better understand the government's refocus on centralizing and deploying capital into productive use cases. Centralize the steering of credit, decentralize who receives it.
The key to the entire process is Matt's highlighting of Richard Werner's work. Richard wrote the Princes of the Yen , which outlines not only the rise and fall of the great Japanese financial system, but more importantly, the foundations of how dominant banking and financial systems work. A means by which the US economic system has drifted far away from over the last thirty to fifty years.
In simple terms, the keys are state-directed capital and credit allocation to productive uses. That's all that matters for a budding or dominant economic system. Without it, one dies. Without it, one meanders toward financial engineering practices that eventually kill the entire system. Proper credit allocation (capital formation) is representative of early-stage and highly successful/functioning economic systems. Financialization is the sign of an aging or failing financial system. If you strip out all the complexity and jargon, it's as simple as this.
As Werner points out, the Quantity Theory of Credit is the origin of all successful banking models that have worked for thousands of years. It started in early Asia before moving through Europe, Germany, Japan, the US, and now back to China. It was the basis of China's rise as they've built out the Belt and Road system over the last decade-plus. It has allowed them to pull economic power and global sway away from the US by way of state-directed capital aimed at globally and systemically important supply chains. By doing so, China created a vast decentralized product and manufacturing hub for the world; for anything and everything at a low price. On the contrary, the US chose the more deadly path. Centralization, consolidation, and a reduction in the number of banking entities. All the while increasing the amount of financialization, leverage, and risk in the fewer and fewer nodes within the system.
The core thesis, unlike what we've seen in the US over the last two decades, is decentralization. In short, you have the combination of centralized capital flows towards a decentralized private sector, which forms the basis of growth. You conquer, so to speak, in numbers.
This is a major paradigm shift from what we've become, but it is what we are finally seeing the US wake up to and begin to move back towards.
That's why it feels so chaotic and out of sync. It's different than anything we've seen in the last 70 to 100 years or more. It is what Hamilton implemented in the US to found our great and successful American experiment. It is what we reimplemented in the 30s to 50s to extend US dominance. But it is what we moved away from post-1971 with the creation of petrodollars and a heavy reliance on financialization and incentivization of lack of productivity (service). It is what stablecoin dollars, Bitcoin, and a SOFR based system are meant to hopefully replace. The brokenness of petrodollar and eurodollars. These steps are an attempt to revert back to something that works - productivity.
Instead of growth, for decades, we've implemented policies that promote fewer and fewer entities in industry and banking. The exact steps that choke off growth and kill economic systems. It also leads, as we've seen, to a vicious cycle of bad policy design that encourages less competition. All of which only exacerbate the problem.
Eventually, you end up right where we are. In an unproductive and overly financialized economy without the ability to provide because you've outsourced everything for the sake of profits, quarterly numbers, and inflated margins for analysts to bicker over. At some point, you wake up and realize the amount of power you've given away to others by centralizing your resources and profits into fewer and fewer hands. That's when you realize those providing to you have decentralized their resources, profits, and state-directed capital into real economic power that eventually unseats you from number one.
For a financial system to work, the entire system must depend on the quantity of credit, as Werner lays out, and if you follow the Japanese story, which I believe we are only 25-30 years behind, then Kevin Warsh is no different than the last Central Bank prince whose specific role was to change the regime . Unfortunately, if we choose to extend, the only option is to become the carry trade for others to piggyback off of. As we see, that game can unproductively go on for decades.
As Dines notes, the QE period is over. The only move to sustain is to provide credit to those who have capacity (Main Street) and guide it into productive use cases (21st-century infrastructure).
Sign up for the Bombthrower mailing list here . Follow Kane McGukin on Substack here.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 09/19/2026 - 22:10 Close
Sun, 20 Sep 2026 01:35:00 +0000 Foreign Capital Returns To Brazil As Goldman Clients See 20% Stock Rally If Bolsonaro Defeats Socialist
Foreign Capital Returns To Brazil As Goldman Clients See 20% Stock Rally If Bolsonaro Defeats Socialist
Foreign Capital Returns To Brazil As Goldman Clients See 20% Stock Rally If Bolsonaro Defeats Socialist
Brazil's tightening presidential race could drive a sharp repricing of local equities.
A new Goldman Sachs survey of 70 global investors found that half see at least 20% upside in EWZ, the US-listed Brazil equity ETF, by year-end if right-wing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro defeats socialist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva . The first round is scheduled for Oct. 4, with a potential runoff on Oct. 25.
Lula (Left); Bolsonaro (Right)
Goldman Sachs Managing Director Nelson Armbrust provided clients color on the upcoming elections in South America, which could cement a historic, once-in-a-generation rightward shift across the continent .
Related:
He focused on positioning :
Flávio Bolsonaro (right-leaning candidate) is gaining momentum; polls show him tied or closing the gap in the second round.
As a reminder, pools don't adjust for the likely voter (aka: the people that actually turn up on the day to cast a vote, no mail ballot votes in Brazil), and historically there has been higher absence from Lula's voters.
We just did a survey with 70 global investors about their cross-asset views in Brazil, the bottom line:
Equities is the least owned asset class (60% are either "very light" or "light") and it is the vehicle this group sees the most upside (half see EWZ at least +20% by year end if Flavio wins ) From my convos, local Equity investor positioning is a 6/10 while local Macro accounts are small in equities (3/10).
Foreign capital is starting to come back to Brazil as we near the event:
We have seen massive buying of upside from investors , EWZ Call Open Interest at ALL TIME HIGHS:
Implementation: I like EWZ Call Spreads for November (runoff is October 25th) and going long our Rate Sensitive basket (GSBZRATE Index).
Implied 2 month vols have risen from ~30v to ~45v and past election cycles (noted on the graph below) show that vols could keep moving higher.
But the cost of the 30% delta call vs the 10% delta call has been stable lately and is historically cheap (21st percentile).
EWZ Nov 42 50 call spread = $1.00 offer 8x max payout, ref 37.20, ~45v ATMF, 23% delta, max loss is premium paid.
Another way to implement is going long GSBZRATE Index, they are the 30 stocks in Ibovespa most correlated to 5y rates. It is composed of Fins (38%), Real Estate (17%), Industrials (17%), Utilities (12%), Cons Disc (9%) and Materials (6%). You can trade U$75mn a day at 10% volume.
Brazil has the highest real rate in the WORLD (~10%) and is the most correlated EM Equity with local Rates. If rates come down, the move in Equities could be meaningful.
Below is a chart of the basket's P/E vs local short-term rates (Jan29 rates) inverted. As flagged by Louis Miller, one could expect a ~30%+ re-rating in GSBZRATE (P/E going from 9x to 12x) if the local rates price in 200bps of cuts – from my investors discussions, 200-300bps is where most expect to see short term rates by year end if Flavio wins.
Historically when the market prices cuts, our Brazil Rate Sensitive Basket delivered ~3x the Ibovespa's return (table below). The basket struggles if rates are cut due to recession risk or if there is a commodity boom (1/3 of Ibovespa is commods). Quick explanation below on periods the basket did not outperform Ibovespa (and I don't expect any of these scenarios to play out):
Jan2010-Aug2010: economy and inflation were strong, CB started hiking and we had a bull flattening of the curve so the ongoing 5y came down.
Jan2014-Aug2014: CB finished a hiking cycle on April 2014, economy started to decelerate sharply, mkt read it as "CB wont be able to keep rate high for long" so the 5y came down. Also, 2014 was an election year with Dilma x Aecio Neves (mkt thought Aecio, a right-leaning candidate, would win… but he lost and Ibovespa finished flat on that year.)
Dec2015-Apr2018: huge commodities boom from China expanding, so Vale and Petrobras led the rally. Also in Aug2016 Dilma was impeached and Temer ran the country. During this time, markets rallied.
Earlier this month, Polymarket showed Bolsonaro overtaking Lula for the first time, and that lead has held through Saturday morning. Bolsonaro's odds of winning currently stand at 57%, while Lula's are around 42%.
Brazilian stocks have rebounded alongside rising Polymarket bets on a Bolsonaro victory .
A Bolsonaro win would cement a rightward shift after socialists spent years destroying the continent with nation-killing progressive experiments .
Also, across the pond in Europe, Nomura analysts expect an 18-month election cycle that sees the continent "lurching right ."
Tyler Durden
Sat, 09/19/2026 - 21:35 Close
Sun, 20 Sep 2026 01:00:00 +0000 Waste Of The Day: SBA Reviewed Loans 20 Years Late
Waste Of The Day: SBA Reviewed Loans 20 Years Late
Waste Of The Day: SBA Reviewed Loans 20 Years Late
Authored by Jeremy Portnoy via RealClearInvestigations ,
The Small Business Administration potentially made $11.5 million in improper payments to banks after overruling its own employees who had recommended reducing or denying government guarantees on 16 failed small-business loans.
For another 13 failed loans, SBA took so long to review them that the six-year statute of limitations expired, wasting another $5.4 million , according to an Aug. 27 inspector general report .
Key facts: SBA's 7(a) program helps startups with a risky business model get loans, but it does not generally lend taxpayer money directly. Private banks make loans of up to $5 million, and the government promises to cover as much as 85% of the loss if the borrower defaults.
But taxpayers only have to honor that guarantee when the bank follows SBA rules. If a bank failed to properly determine whether a borrower could repay the loan, verify required investments or follow other safeguards, SBA can reduce or deny the payout to the bank.
Auditors reviewed 32 failed loans where SBA employees recommended reducing or denying the payouts to banks, but higher-level reviewers later overturned those decisions.
For 16 of the 32 loans, auditors found insufficient evidence to justify the reversal, resulting in $11.5 million worth of potential improper payments. That included almost $4.9 million loaned to borrowers who never showed evidence they could repay the money.
One small business defaulted within 18 months. The bank argued that the small business had a sound strategy, but it failed due to the unforeseen loss of a major customer. The bank provided no evidence for its claim, but the SBA paid the guarantee anyway.
The SBA is also taking far too long to review high-risk loans, the audit found. The agency has only six years to sue a bank for violating the loan terms, but auditors found 13 loans where impropriety was not discovered until that deadline had passed. Two of them were not reviewed for more than 20 years after the loan guarantee was paid.
The SBA legally could have withheld other federal payments to the banks even after the six-year time limit expired, but the SBA has no process for doing so, the audit found.
SBA guaranteed $37 billion through 77,600 new 7(a) loans in fiscal year 2025 .
Summary: A government loan guarantee is supposed to protect lenders from legitimate business failures, not protect them from following the rules. Taking 20 years to decide which is which leaves taxpayers holding the bag.
The #WasteOfTheDay is brought to you by the forensic auditors at OpenTheBooks.com
Tyler Durden
Sat, 09/19/2026 - 21:00 Close
Sun, 20 Sep 2026 00:25:00 +0000 Tesla Engineers Audit Chinese Suppliers As Optimus Commercialization Nears
Tesla Engineers Audit Chinese Suppliers As Optimus Commercialization Nears
Tesla Engineers Audit Chinese Suppliers As Optimus Commercialization Nears
About a month after JPMorgan analysts toured Tesla's Fremont factory and confirmed a "targeted four-month transition following the end of S/X production in May" to humanoid production lines, a new report on Friday says that Tesla engineers arrived in China to inspect robotics component suppliers, as Elon Musk appears to be moving closer and closer toward the commercialization of humanoid robots.
Bloomberg first reported this development as Tesla engineers arrived in Ningbo, a major port and manufacturing city in Zhejiang province on China's eastern coast, just south of Shanghai. The engineers inspected parts and component factories for the humanoid robot called "Optimus."
"Tesla's reported supplier audits are a positive commercialization signal for China's humanoid supply chain, pointing to progress toward repeatable Optimus production," Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Ian Ma wrote in a note, adding, "Near-term sentiment could stay supported if audits lead to confirmed supplier nominations and larger orders."
Tesla is reportedly targeting the second half of 2027 for commercial sales of Optimus. Production is likely to begin much earlier, as JPM analyst Rajat Gupta said the "Optimus Academy" will be operating later this year, with robots collecting real-world training data before being deployed in factories.
News of this development sent the Solactive China Humanoid Robotics Index slightly higher on Friday, up about 1.4%, amid a tumultuous year that has left it down about 30%.
The market's appetite for physical AI, specifically humanoids, was hyped in mid-August by China's blockbuster Unitree IPO, but the momentum failed to follow through .
Bernstein analyst Eunice Lee recently pointed out that the adoption curve for humanoids will be much steeper than that of automobiles over a century ago.
Goldman analysts last month raised their global humanoid robot delivery base case to 75,000 shipments in 2026, 890,000 in 2030, and 6.5 million in 2035, versus previous estimates of 51,000, 256,000, and 1.4 million, respectively.
The invasion of physical AI is just around the corner.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 09/19/2026 - 20:25 Close
Sat, 19 Sep 2026 23:50:00 +0000 HHS Awards $42.3 Million To Push 'Treatment First' Model For Homelessness & Addiction
HHS Awards $42.3 Million To Push 'Treatment First' Model For Homelessness & Addiction
HHS Awards $42.3 Million To Push 'Treatment First' Model For Homelessness & Addiction
Authored by Kimberly Hayek via The Epoch Times ,
A federal agency within the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) awarded $42.3 million in new supplemental cash Friday to states and territories with the goal of speeding up the implementation of the Treatment First model for homelessness tied to addiction.
The Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA) funding supports the initiative falling under President Donald Trump's executive order titled "Ending Crime and Disorder on America's Streets" and the relevant Best Practices Toolkit that followed. That order from July 2025 directed agencies to put treatment and recovery ahead of the old approaches.
"President Trump has directed us to break the cycle of homelessness and addiction by putting treatment, recovery, and self-sufficiency first," HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said in a statement. "These investments will help states move people from crisis into treatment and from treatment into lasting recovery, stable housing, and work. We are funding results that help people reclaim their health and independence."
About $17.3 million of the funds went to Community Mental Health Services Block Grant recipients. Officials say it builds systems, partnerships, workforce capacity, policies, and the technical pieces needed to make Treatment First a success. The funds will go toward technical assistance, training, policy work, and coordination across systems.
Roughly $25 million went to Substance Use Prevention, Treatment, and Recovery Services Block Grant recipients to expand options for safe, licensed, certified, or chartered sober and recovery housing, as well as the requisite technical assistance to ensure that more recovery residences open and quality standards tighten.
"Treatment First means building a system that does not leave people cycling between homelessness, emergency rooms, and the criminal justice system," SAMHSA Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary Christopher D. Carroll said. "These investments will help states strengthen the infrastructure - partnerships, data, workforce, and recovery supports - needed to connect people with serious mental illness and addiction to effective treatment and support them on a path toward lasting recovery, stable housing, employment, and self-sufficiency."
In June, the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) published a $4.04 billion Continuum of Care notice. It walked away from the Housing First model, which provided permanent housing with no strings attached. Chronic homelessness climbed 81 percent from 2013 to 2025, despite the number of taxpayer-funded beds increasing 151 percent, HUD figures show.
HUD Secretary Scott Turner called Housing First a failure that "warehoused the vulnerable without results." Housing alone will not fix a crisis driven by addiction and mental illness, he said.
Kennedy earlier this year announced more than $700 million for related work, of which nearly $100 million went to the STREETS program for homeless people dealing with addiction or serious mental illness. In February, he introduced the $100 million STREETS effort itself, built around continuous contact from the street through recovery, jobs and self-sufficiency.
A federal appeals court this week allowed HUD to forge ahead with funding shifts after lower-court challenges. The department has earmarked $1.3 billion for transitional housing and supportive services.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 09/19/2026 - 19:50 Close
Sat, 19 Sep 2026 22:40:00 +0000 Appeals Court Rules Federal Ban On Interstate Handgun Sales Unconstitutional
Appeals Court Rules Federal Ban On Interstate Handgun Sales Unconstitutional
Appeals Court Rules Federal Ban On Interstate Handgun Sales Unconstitutional
Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times ,
The Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled 2-1 against the federal government's ban on interstate transfers of handguns on Sept. 18, finding the nearly 60-year-old law was unconstitutional.
The ruling reverses provisions of the Gun Control Act of 1968 that prohibit handguns from being sold directly from licensed firearms dealers to buyers across state lines.
"The ban sullies the plain text of the Second Amendment and is inconsistent with the nation's tradition of firearms regulation, dating back to the founding era, under that Amendment," Circuit Judge Jerry Smith wrote in the ruling.
The court also rejected the lower court's analysis when dismissing the lawsuit last year, determining that the historical record adequately justified the ban because colonial and state laws regulating the movement of firearms across borders satisfy conditions outlined in the Bruen ruling of 2022.
The Supreme Court's 2022 decision in New York State Rifle and Pistol Association v. Bruen set a history-based standard: A new regulation must be consistent with the nation's historical tradition of firearm regulation.
Smith wrote that the lower court's analysis "stretches the historical record far beyond what it can actually bear."
Circuit Judge Catharina Haynes dissented, agreeing with the lower court's decision to dismiss the case last year.
"I agree with the district court's decision that the several provisions of [the gun control act] discussed in this case are not unconstitutional under the Second Amendment," Haynes wrote. "That is all that is in play in this case."
The federal lawsuit was filed in January 2025 by Texas custom firearms dealer Elite Precision Customs LLC and out-of-state customers Tim Herron, a New Mexico-based grand master in the U.S. Practical Shooting Association, and Freddie Blish, a retired U.S. Marine Corps veteran who travels around the country teaching safe firearms handling for self-defense.
The Firearms Policy Coalition, a national gun rights organization, also joined the lawsuit against the federal government.
The plaintiffs argued the law prohibited people from directly purchasing handguns from licensed dealers outside their state of residence, while allowing them to buy rifles and shotguns.
Handgun buyers were forced to arrange transfers through a licensed dealer in their state, which required them to depend on another dealer agreeing to participate in the transaction and usually included more fees and delays, according to the Firearms Policy Coalition.
The Firearms Policy Coalition said the ruling was a win for people's rights.
"This is a massive victory for the People and another major defeat for the federal government's unconstitutional gun-control regime," said the coalition's President Brandon Combs in a statement. "Your right to keep and bear arms does not stop at your state line, and the government cannot make you pay a penalty just to exercise it."
A district court in Texas granted the federal government's motion to dismiss the lawsuit on Sept. 30, 2025, finding the sale restrictions didn't function as a de facto prohibition on possession but were a reasonable commercial restriction enacted by Congress.
Congress passed the Sale Restrictions provision in 1968, finding that interstate commerce provided an easy way for citizens to evade states' gun laws at the time, according to the lower court.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 09/19/2026 - 18:40 Close
Sat, 19 Sep 2026 22:05:00 +0000 CENTCOM Claims US Military Has Escorted A Billion Barrels Of Crude Out Of Hormuz
CENTCOM Claims US Military Has Escorted A Billion Barrels Of Crude Out Of Hormuz
Brent crude futures eased toward $103 a barrel by the end of the week as mixed Iran headlines and hopes for renewed diplomacy around n
Read more.....
CENTCOM Claims US Military Has Escorted A Billion Barrels Of Crude Out Of Hormuz
Brent crude futures eased toward $103 a barrel by the end of the week as mixed Iran headlines and hopes for renewed diplomacy around next week's United Nations General Assembly weighed on energy markets .
On Saturday morning, CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper said the US had escorted 1 billion barrels of oil and more than 2,000 commercial vessels out of the Persian Gulf over the past couple of months .
Hostilities at the Hormuz chokepoint continued into Friday, as CBS News reported that two vessels were hit by projectiles . Iran claimed responsibility for striking one over an alleged "illegal crossing."
President Trump said Thursday he would soon make a "big decision " on whether to launch a major assault to "annihilate" the Iranian regime. "It's a big decision ," the president told Axios ahead of a planned meeting with Persian Gulf leaders next week. "Anything could happen to me."
We suspect any major action against the Iranian regime could come after the midterm elections , whether kinetic, securing or neutralizing Kharg Island, or a next phase of expanded sanctions that could include not just Tehran but also China.
Middle East oil exports have stayed resilient despite the Saudi East-West pipeline disruption, largely because flows have been rerouted through Hormuz.
UBS oil and gas analyst Henri Patricot wrote in a note that combined crude and petroleum-product exports through the critical waterway and alternative routes reached about 14 million barrels a day in the two days preceding Friday. He said the weekly average remained around 12 million barrels a day , compared with more than 20 million before the conflict kicked off in late February.
That still leaves global oil markets with a deficit of more than 8 million barrels from these export routes on a weekly basis. This only shows the scale of the disruption that continues ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter, as Saudi Arabia told major refineries in Europe that crude loadings would be halted next month due to ongoing disruptions to the East-West pipeline.
Patricot said the increased shipments through the Hormuz chokepoint continue to be driven by "dark transits ":
Reduced concerns on near-term flows, same uncertainty on resolution
A pick-up in flows via the Strait of Hormuz in recent days has eased some of the concerns around near-term crude supply, impacting prices. More reports indicate that Aramco will raise exports from Oman over the next few weeks. Flows will reportedly be going to Asia. US President Donald Trump said that the is nearing a decision over whether to restart attacks on Iran. He is due to meet GCC leaders next Tuesday. Meanwhile attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz have reportedly continued.
Flows going up in the past couple of days, despite Yanbu interruption
We estimate total crude oil and oil product exports via Hormuz plus volumes diverted to the bypass routes were up to 14Mb/d in the past couple of days, despite the drop in Yanbu. Total flows remain at 12Mb/d on a weekly basis vs. the >20Mb/d preconflict. The increase continues to be driven by dark transits via Hormuz as visible volumes in the latest UBS Evidence Lab data. Another LNG carrier left the Gulf yesterday, the second one we have seen exiting this month. Flows via the Bab el Mandeb Strait remain within the recent range.
Gulf loadings ramping up Gulf
Gulf crude loadings ex-Iran rose to >10Mb/d over the past 2 days and are near their highest level since the start of the conflict at 8.1Mb/d over the past week vs. the August average of 5.5Mb/d. This is driven by higher Saudi and Iraqi exports. There is still no fresh Iranian crude loading on the other hand . Including Fujairah, loadings on the bypass routes averaged 2.5Mb/d in the past 2 days and are at 4.9Mb/d so far in September vs. 3.4Mb/d in August and 6.4Mb/d in July. Oil product loadings in the Gulf are also bouncing back slightly, above 1.5Mb/d vs. sub-1Mb/d for most of the conflict.
Separately, JPMorgan's head of global markets strategy, Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, told clients, "Middle East oil exports have stayed unexpectedly resilient despite the Saudi East-West pipeline disruption, largely because flows have been rerouted through Hormuz ."
Brent crude futures settled around $103.87 a barrel on Friday, while the US diesel crack spread closed around $112.60 a barrel , suggesting the crisis is less about crude and more about refining (read Goldman's diesel report ), specifically diesel .
Tyler Durden
Sat, 09/19/2026 - 18:05 Close
Sat, 19 Sep 2026 21:30:00 +0000 Total PsAI-Op: How Altman, Amodei, And The 'EA' Cult Are Milking "Rogue AI" Breakouts To Protect A Trillion-Dollar Bubble
Total PsAI-Op: How Altman, Amodei, And The 'EA' Cult Are Milking "Rogue AI" Breakouts To Protect A Trillion-Dollar Bubble
The sudden emergence of an 'AI Panic' over the past weeks and months was highly suspect from the beginning. Read more.....
Total PsAI-Op: How Altman, Amodei, And The 'EA' Cult Are Milking "Rogue AI" Breakouts To Protect A Trillion-Dollar Bubble
The sudden emergence of an 'AI Panic' over the past weeks and months was highly suspect from the beginning. According to tech insiders, Silicon Valley's apex AI labs are deliberately overselling "rogue AI" hacks to pressure the federal government into building a regulatory moat that would lock out future competition - and the timing, months after both OpenAI and Anthropic announced plans to go public, couldn't be more obvious.
Akhil Verghese, founder of AI software company Krazimo, told the NY Post the incidents were no rebellion: "They were simply told to get the best result possible on a test." Voice AI co-founder Abhi Kumar was blunter: "One man's 'the model escaped the sandbox' is another man's 'you failed to build the sandbox correctly.'" Taivo Pungas, chief intelligence officer at Pactum AI, said the leap from "we didn't build the right sort of box" to a whole-of-government emergency feels exaggerated.
PANIC!
The AI "breakouts" that lit up Capitol Hill this summer were about as organic as #4 red dye. On July 16, OpenAI models running a cyber evaluation exploited a zero-day and got from their test range into Hugging Face's production systems ; OpenAI disclosed it five days later, naming GPT-5.6 Sol and an unreleased model, and noting the models had been configured "with reduced cyber refusals so they could attempt offensive exercises that normal safeguards might reject." Nine days after that, Anthropic disclosed three incidents of its own.
According to Anthropic's July 30 write-up - the "waking up" narrative is total bullshit. "A misconfiguration left the machines that Claude accessed as part of the evaluation with live internet access," the company wrote; the models had been told they were offline . Claude Opus 4.7 went after a real company that happened to share a name with the fictional target and pulled "several hundred rows of production data." Mythos 5 published a booby-trapped Python package to the live PyPI registry that was "downloaded and run on 15 real systems." An unreleased research model scanned "roughly 9,000 targets" and got into one company's web app "using basic and well-known cyberattack techniques." Anthropic's own verdict: "We believe these incidents to be closer to a harness and operational failure than a model alignment failure." It halted cyber evals on July 23 and called in METR - their preferred Orwellian arbiter - to review.
Anthropic's account has one wrinkle: Opus 4.7 kept attacking after it recognized the system was real. Only the newer research model stopped. So the machines are not uniformly "blameless" - but a model that keeps following its instructions on a misconfigured network is Irregular's failure, not evidence of intent.
The Common Denominator
Every one of these evaluations was run by the same third party: Irregular, an AI security firm that tested the OpenAI, Anthropic and Google models and, per Axios , hit "the same security issues" each time. The Verge adds Meta to the list - a pattern Axios's Sam Sabin flagged in July:
Then came Gemini. On Friday, the Wall Street Journal reported that Google's model had broken into three real companies during an Irregular capture-the-flag exercise. The incident happened in May, Irregular published its report on August 14, and Google didn't mention it until the Journal called - and then explained that it hadn't considered the hacks worth disclosing because Gemini "acted appropriately" and stopped once it realized the targets were real.
Irregular told Axios the model "wasn't supposed to be able to get online, but internet access was unintentionally available ," and the fictional target company "had the same name as a real one." In one case Gemini guessed passwords until it got in; in two others it found credentials sitting in a public repository. Irregular says "all known issues on our end were remedied and resolved weeks ago" and that the Gemini case "does not represent a materially separate incident." Google VP Heather Adkins: "Safe development of powerful AI models is critical and we invest deeply in this area."
But when looking at the actual events, the model was blameless .
So Google - which isn't asking Washington to pace anything, considered the incident a non-event - yet the two labs lobbying for a federal slowdown scrambled to put out press releases.
Industry commentator John Ennis put the obvious question, pointing out that "once is an accident, twice is questionable, but three times looks intentional" .
The Effective Altruism movement is the doomsday tendency that has spent a decade staffing AI safety boards and testing labs on the premise that AI will kill everyone unless the right people are in charge of it. Whether Irregular is EA-aligned is Ennis's call. That it is the one firm under all of these incidents is on the record from Axios, The Verge and Anthropic itself.
The Pacing Play
Six days before the Gemini story broke, Dario Amodei published a September 12 post warning that within 6 to 12 months an AI swarm could "take over the entire internet with a persistent botnet," potentially causing hundreds of billions of dollars in damage. His prescription: "We must slow the pace at which we improve the capabilities of AI models." Sam Altman and Elon Musk signaled support. In a nutshell, Pacing the Frontier ™ is a bid to become strategically indispensable - too big to fail, with Beijing as the justification.
Nvidia's Jensen Huang - circle-jerker-in-chief noted: "What better way to create demand than to create a problem." lol yes.
Palo Alto Networks CEO Nikesh Arora called it a "NINJA move" and then, after more time talking to labs, open-source projects and government, warned it could backfire:
Lawmakers jumped on this right on cue .
Senator Josh Hawley opened an investigation into OpenAI on September 9, with a records deadline of October 1 ; Senator Bernie Sanders announced a bill to ban further frontier-lab development; Senator Elizabeth Warren demanded an "immediate pause." As we noted earlier this week , everybody in this conversation is talking their own book. On Friday the White House joined in from the other side: Trump posted that AI safety concerns are a "hoax" and said he will appoint an AI czar and stand up an "AI Force," per Bloomberg.
Follow The Money
Oh and then there's that, yes. A leaked OpenAI presentation obtained by the Financial Times projects negative free cash flow of $278 billion from 2026 to 2030 , with the company's compute bill rising from a $600 billion estimate in February to $856 billion by July - against revenue it hopes to grow from $36 billion this year to $350 billion in 2030. As we detailed previously , Altman has already walked back the timeline on the economic transformation that was supposed to pay for all of it.
Anthropic, meanwhile, has shifted its planned IPO from October to November, per the Journal, on what Reuters reports is $100 billion-plus in annualized revenue. And a week after its CEO said the industry must slow down, Reuters reports Anthropic is considering rushing out a new model to counter OpenAI's momentum ahead of that IPO. Pacing for thee.
If an open-weight model out of Hangzhou does 95% of what Claude or GPT-5 does for a fraction of the cost, the valuations both labs are banking on implode. The only way to protect the margins, justify the cash burn and satisfy Wall Street is to make it legally impossible for anyone else to compete - a regulatory moat so thick, and compliance costs so high, that only a $100 billion corporation can afford to train a frontier model. Arora's point stands: no actual security fix has been proposed, only more "compute spent on safety" and a federal body to bless it.
The models didn't rebel. A contractor left the internet on, three times that we know of, and the two labs with IPOs to protect turned that into a case for federal pacing. Hawley's records are due October 1, Anthropic has promised a redacted PyPI transcript and an outside METR review, and Google's explanation for sitting on a May breach of three companies until a newspaper called is that the model behaved. Don't believe the byte.
* * *
Tyler Durden
Sat, 09/19/2026 - 17:30 Close