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Tue, 08 Sep 2026 11:20:00 +0000 Europe's Von der Leyen Wants To Put Private Bank Deposits Under State Direction
Europe's Von der Leyen Wants To Put Private Bank Deposits Under State Direction
Submitted by Thomas Kolbe
How will we deal with private property in Europe in the future?
A highly complex debate follows from
Read more.....
Europe's Von der Leyen Wants To Put Private Bank Deposits Under State Direction
Submitted by Thomas Kolbe
How will we deal with private property in Europe in the future?
A highly complex debate follows from this question, one that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen interpreted in her own very particular way on Friday. In a speech to French business leaders at the MEDEF’s La Rencontre des Entrepreneurs de France in Paris, the former defense minister talked about using EU citizens’ bank deposits to get the ailing eurozone, the European economy, back on its feet.
VIDEO
An unmistakable message: In the view of the EU’s chief Eurocrat, private property as a protective wall shielding citizens from an overreaching state has served its purpose as a pillar of civilization.
Central planning, subsidy madness – this is Brussels under the magnifying glass.
Certainly: In the face of towering government debt and capital flight from the old continent, in whose wake thousands of patents and tens of thousands of highly qualified professionals are being swept away, citizens’ wealth is bound to awaken political appetites. A ruthless expropriation or the decreed redirection of cash, as the finest bureaucratic German puts it, is supposed to solve the problems Brussels itself has caused through its stubborn climate policy, its overregulation and its continuing insanity of interventionism.
Von der Leyen was explicit before the business leaders: Europe has savings, she said, but unfortunately those savings are sitting on the sidelines. Ten trillion euros are sitting as cash savings in the hands of private households in bank accounts, lectures von der Leyen in the manner of a classic central planner who can no longer take her eyes off citizens’ wealth . The European economy must now put this capital to work for its companies, the chief bureaucrat decreed.
None of this merely sounds like Erich Honecker. Von der Leyen is increasingly turning into a socialist sister in spirit to this disastrous regime.
Von der Leyen is following the path of the German chancellor. Friedrich Merz, too, discovered the cash holdings of Germans as political capital for himself more than a year ago – thoroughly socialist, indeed almost dictatorial, the chancellor also pointed to the possibilities opened up by what he called an activation of this money.
Ursula von der Leyen and Friedrich Merz reveal not merely an ethical and ideological abyss; they are contemplating dictatorial control over the private wealth of citizens who are still sovereign.
Almost tragically comical is the economic ignorance of these two political protagonists of an EU that is now openly turning toward an illiberal ideology.
Bank deposits are by no means useless cash. From the perspective of the banking sector, customer deposits are a central source of refinancing and liquidity, embedded in the money and credit cycle and enabling the provision of loans. Bank credit in the modern monetary system does not simply arise from passing on existing deposits. Commercial banks create new bank money through lending, although this process cannot simply be understood as a mechanical “leveraging” of existing deposits . Customer deposits thus fulfill numerous functions, from private liquidity planning and cash holdings to the financing and management of banking processes.
Such a massive intervention in the highly complex and fragile liquidity and credit structure of the banking sector would not merely be a barbaric act of socialism – it would be a frontal assault on the functionality of the banking system as such.
Nevertheless, the EU will resort to massive interventions – financially, after all, they have run into a wall.
Starting in 2028, repayment of the €800 billion Eurobond “NextGenerationEU” will come due. Von der Leyen’s speech before business leaders was ostensibly directed at the private sector, but in reality it concerned the financing of the European debt club, which is now moving toward tapping every financial source that can help keep the Ponzi scheme of European credit alive – the activation of cash appears to be one of those sources.
France is caught in a debt spiral , with new borrowing amounting to 5.7% of GDP this year and a parliamentary deadlock that rules out any form of fiscal consolidation.
Germany, too, will post new borrowing of more than 5 percent next year if the municipal deficit, the special funds and the social insurance funds are included – making common financing through Eurobonds, the consolidation of the mountain of debt under the roof of the European Commission and under the active liquidity assistance of the ECB increasingly likely.
And here the circle closes.
While capital is leaving the old continent through every remaining, every still-open channel, the financial needs of the EU’s ideological grand experiment and its nation-states are growing beyond measure.
The green subsidy machine alone destroys billions year after year. The final push over the economic cliff, however, will come from Europe’s rediscovered appetite for militarism. Military Keynesianism is not, however, an economic alternative to the free market. It is merely another fiscal grave that the political leadership is digging in its panic in these months.
The following final chapter is essentially known: Brussels will opt for massive capital controls.
The framework for this is already taking shape: In two years, the digital euro is to be introduced, initially as a pilot phase and, almost certainly at a later stage, as a monetary standard that will allow Brussels to exercise complete control over transfers abroad.
A ban on foreign bank accounts for EU citizens is also on the table and is being introduced step by step, just like the digital ID and the harsh regulation of the crypto sector. Slowly but steadily, the gates are closing.
Basically, this is how it always works in socialism: One day, the central planners will run out of other people’s money. Only then does the grinding machinery of repression by the powerful central authority begin.
* * *
About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 09/08/2026 - 07:20 Close
Tue, 08 Sep 2026 10:55:00 +0000 Europe Finally Gets Its Own SpaceX Challenger As Isar Reaches Orbit
Europe Finally Gets Its Own SpaceX Challenger As Isar Reaches Orbit
At 10:12pm local time on Saturday, a 92-foot rocket built by Munich startup Read more.....
Europe Finally Gets Its Own SpaceX Challenger As Isar Reaches Orbit
At 10:12pm local time on Saturday, a 92-foot rocket built by Munich startup Isar Aerospace lifted off from a windswept island above the Arctic Circle and reached orbit, where it deployed five small satellites into a roughly 500-km orbit on what was only its second flight, making it the first commercial European company to deliver payloads to orbit and the first successful commercial orbital launch from continental Europe.
Isar Aerospace’s Spectrum rocket takes off from the Andøya Spaceport in Norway on Sept. 5. Source: Isar Aerospace
Readers may recall how the first attempt went. As we noted in March 2025 , Spectrum's maiden flight lasted about 30 seconds before the rocket flipped over and dropped into the sea in a fireball. The post-mortem, per NASASpaceflight : a vent valve popped open at T+25 seconds during the pitch-over maneuver, the vehicle lost attitude control, and the flight termination system cut all nine engines at T+30. Isar went back to the drawing board, rewrote the software, and widened the vehicle's margins.
According o European Spaceflight , the 2026 campaign was not a smooth affair: January, scrubbed for a pressurization valve. March, delayed by weather, then scrubbed when an unauthorized boat wandered into the maritime exclusion zone. April, a leak in a composite pressure vessel. June, "off-nominal behaviour" in the fluid systems. September 4, called off hours after the road closures went into effect. September 5, orbit.
On Sunday their Spectrum rocket finally reached orbit.
CEO Daniel Metzler said in a statement that Europe now has sovereign access to space, and that vehicle launches remain "the largest bottleneck for the global space industry."
Welcome To The Big Leagues
In response to the launch, Berlin, Brussels, Paris and Oslo all rushed out excited statements on Saturday night - which come after a series of dismal European 'failures to launch' (both literal and figurative).
Between 2022 and 2024, Europe lost access to Russian Soyuz after the Ukraine invasion, grounded the medium-lift capable Vega-C after a December 2022 failure, retired Ariane 5, and watched Ariane 6 slip four years past its planned 2020 debut. The upshot: Galileo, the navigation constellation Europe built specifically so it wouldn't have to depend on America's GPS, went up on a Falcon 9 in April 2024 under a €180 million contract with SpaceX, alongside ESA's Euclid telescope, the EarthCARE climate satellite and the Hera asteroid mission. European officials "studiously avoided" mentioning which rocket had carried them.
In 2025, Europe managed seven orbital launches : four Ariane 6 and three Vega-C, all from French Guiana. The United States did 193. China did 93. SpaceX alone flew 165 Falcon 9 missions , roughly one every 2.2 days , with individual boosters now on their 32nd flight.
ESA's answer was the European Launcher Challenge: rather than build yet another agency rocket, pay commercial upstarts to prove they can reach orbit by the end of 2027, then buy launches from the survivors through 2030. Member states were so keen that at last November's ministerial in Bremen they more than doubled the €420 million ESA had asked for, subscribing €902 million inside a record €22.07 billion three-year budget. Isar signed its €197.8 million contract on August 27 , nine days before clearing the first milestone more than a year ahead of the deadline. Rocket Factory Augsburg (€186.9 million) and Spain's PLD Space (€158.9 million) got the other two contracts; ArianeGroup's own MaiaSpace was conspicuously left waiting, and Britain's Orbex went into administration in February, leaving the UK's contribution unassigned.
Timing...
The launch landed four days before Emmanuel Macron opens his international space summit in Paris on Wednesday, a two-day affair whose stated theme is European sovereignty in space, and which SpaceX, Blue Origin, Stoke Space and Starcloud pulled out of last Thursday after a White House Office of Science and Technology Policy official told U.S. companies on a private call, per Politico, that attending "could look like tacit support for EU policy positions."
The policies in question: the EU Space Act, which would require any operator serving EU users to obtain prior authorization and appoint an EU legal representative, and a Franco-German push to carve out more satellite spectrum for European operators, including the €10-billion-plus IRIS² constellation. That is to say, for someone other than Starlink.
The French research ministry said it was "difficult not to link" the cancellations to the reports of pressure; an Élysée official shrugged that it was the absentees' loss. Chinese delegations are expected to fill the empty chairs. And in a detail that undercuts the drama somewhat, the same American companies are due back in Paris a week later for World Space Business Week, where they will presumably be happy to sell to the Europeans they declined to meet.
So: Washington leans on its rocket companies to boycott a summit about Europe not depending on American rocket companies, and 96 hours before it opens, a German rocket reaches orbit from Norway. You could not script it.
Funding Fuels Flight
In the 17 months between fireball and orbit, Isar says its demand flipped from almost entirely civil to roughly 60% defense , with the manifest now booked through 2028. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius toured the Ottobrunn factory in July to reiterate the €35 billion Germany intends to pour into space over the coming years, calling it "an indispensable security domain that cannot be replaced." Chancellor Friedrich Merz visited the Andøya pad in March and on Saturday called the launch "the beginning of a new era." EU defense and space commissioner Andrius Kubilius chimed in from Brussels along the same lines. Norway's trade minister cast it as a matter of Norwegian and European security; Oslo has already contracted Spectrum to launch two Arctic Ocean surveillance satellites by 2028.
Isar’s Spectrum rocket rolls out to its launch pad in Norway. Credit: Isar Aerospace
The NATO Innovation Fund made Isar its first-ever investment in a launch provider in 2024 . State-owned KfW Capital co-invested in June's €270 million Series D, which valued the company at roughly €2 billion and took total funding to about €870 million alongside Lakestar, HV Capital, UVC Partners, Molten Ventures, Island Green Capital, Airbus Ventures, Porsche SE and Eldridge. And on the day NATO leaders gathered in Ankara in July, Isar signed a 10-year, roughly $112 million deal for a dedicated pad at Spaceport Nova Scotia, pitched explicitly as sovereign access for Canada, with first launches targeted for 2028.
Chief commercial officer Stella Guillen told CNBC on Monday that the industry is "desperate" for launch capacity and that Isar's pipeline now exceeds €10 billion ($11.6 billion). CNBC noted the company did not immediately clarify how much of that is actually under contract. Metzler, for his part, told reporters an IPO is not being considered.
Spectrum lifts up to 1,000 kg to low Earth orbit (700 kg to sun-synchronous), roughly a twentieth of a Falcon 9, and it is fully expendable; Isar has signaled reusability only for later versions . Its long-advertised target of about €10,000 per kilogram sits above the $5,000 to $7,000 per kilogram SpaceX charges on Transporter rideshares, though those prices have been climbing and the slots are getting scarcer as Kuiper, Chinese constellations and military customers eat the manifest. Isar's pitch is that governments will pay a premium for a dedicated ride to a specific orbit on a rocket built and launched inside NATO territory. Saturday's payloads, for what it's worth, were DLR competition winners flying on ESA's dime , not paying customers.
Right now, Spectrum vehicles 3 through 7 are in production, and the new 40,000 m² factory at Parsdorf is meant to eventually turn out 40 rockets a year, a figure that would put a company that has flown twice at roughly a quarter of SpaceX's 2025 cadence .
Tyler Durden
Tue, 09/08/2026 - 06:55 Close
Tue, 08 Sep 2026 10:55:00 +0000 Bolsonaro Leads Socialist Lula As "Huge Bet" On Right-Wing Victory Fuels Brazil ETF Options Frenzy
Bolsonaro Leads Socialist Lula As "Huge Bet" On Right-Wing Victory Fuels Brazil ETF Options Frenzy
Summary:
"Explosive Surge" in iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) call open interest Read more.....
Bolsonaro Leads Socialist Lula As "Huge Bet" On Right-Wing Victory Fuels Brazil ETF Options Frenzy
Summary:
"Explosive Surge" in iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) call open interest
BTG Pactual/Nexus Survey Shows Bolsonaro Leads Over Socialist Lula
UBS Calls Brazil Election "Extremely Close" - Bolsonaro Win Would Cement LatAm's Political Shift
The BTG Pactual/Nexus survey released earlier today puts right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro narrowly ahead of socialist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva , though within the margin of error, as a deepening Supreme Court scandal strengthens the conservative challenger's campaign.
At the center of the political turmoil is Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who oversaw the case that sent former President Jair Bolsonaro to prison for plotting a coup. Newly published private messages, according to Bloomberg, suggest closer ties between Moraes and Daniel Vorcaro, the former owner of failed lender Banco Master, which is under investigation for fraud.
"Anyone who votes for Lula is voting for Alexandre de Moraes ," Bolsonaro recently told supporters.
Polymarket odds for next month's Brazilian election show the gap between Bolsonaro and Lula narrowing dramatically.
Overnight, we ??????showed an "explosive surge" in iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) call open interest.
"The Brazil FOMO is real," The Market Ear wrote on X.
A Bolsonaro victory would reinforce South America's broader shift from unhinged left-wing regimes toward the common sense right.
UBS Calls Brazil Election "Extremely Close" - Bolsonaro Win Would Cement LatAm's Political Shift
Socialist Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's polling lead over right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro has eroded in recent weeks, leaving both statistically tied in UBS' latest runoff polling average .
Arend Kapteyn, UBS' global head of economics and strategy research, described the upcoming election in early October as "extremely close" in a note to clients on Monday.
Lula (Left); Bolsonaro (Right)
Kapteyn's note today puts Bolsonaro at 50.4% in a hypothetical runoff, against 49.6% for Lula , adding that the narrowing spread leaves the candidates statistically tied.
Kapteyn continued:
On 4 October, Brazilians will vote for a president, the entire Chamber of Deputies and two-thirds of the Senate. Brazil currently has one of the highest real interest rates in the world, contributing to increasingly adverse debt dynamics. In our view, an election outcome that delivers a credible fiscal consolidation program could significantly improve the macroeconomic outlook. Relative to our baseline, real interest rates could fall by at least 2.5 percentage points (to around 5% from 7.5%), potential growth could be 1pp higher (2.5% rather than 1.5%), and inflation could be around 1pp lower (3.5% rather than 4.5%).
Our poll aggregator currently shows first-round voting intentions of 42.5% for Lula and 36.0% for Flávio Bolsonaro . Given the historical polling error of approximately 3 percentage points, the candidates' confidence intervals overlap. Rejection rates are elevated for both candidates, while other contenders collectively attract 21.5% of voting intentions. If no candidate secures an outright majority in the first round, a runoff will be held on 25 October.
The second round appears even tighter. Lula currently polls at 49.6% of voting intentions versus 50.4% for Flávio . Compared with our poll update a week ago, the lead has effectively changed hands . Importantly, these surveys were conducted before the latest controversy involving a Supreme Court justice, who is alleged to have advised an individual under fraud investigation, a case that could potentially implicate key allies within Lula's inner circle.
Historically, incumbent presidents have generally secured re-election when their "good or great" approval rating exceeded 40%. Lula currently stands at 37% on this measure. Conversations with two political consultants also suggest that momentum may be shifting in Flávio's favor . Nevertheless, prediction markets continue to assign Lula a modest advantage. Polymarket implies odds of roughly 55%-43% in Lula's ffavor while Kalshi places the race at approximately 55%-44%.
Polymarket Odds:
Read:
The election may determine whether Brazil moves further left or right politically. Across the continent, the latest country to shift right was Colombia. Many others have followed :
By mid-2026, South America had already flipped . Argentina (Milei), Chile (Kast), Colombia (de la Espriella), Peru (Keiko Fujimori), Ecuador (Noboa), Bolivia (Paz), and Paraguay (Peña) sit on the right.
The remaining large left-wing governments are Brazil and Uruguay. Brazil accounts for about half of South America's GDP and population. If Brazil goes right , the region would be entirely aligned with the Trump administration and would be on track to rid itself of nation-killing socialism and other failed progressive experiments.
In Germany on Sunday, right-wing Alternative für Deutschland delivered its strongest election result ever in Saxony-Anhalt, dealing a sharp blow to the political establishment. Nomura analysts indicate that Europe may be in the early stages of "lurching right" (read the report).
Putting this all together, Western voters are rejecting nation-killing left-wing regimes that have done nothing more than allow mass migration, pursue progressive experiments, and neuter the West's industrial and power grids with climate change policies, which has only given China a leg up in the AI and weapons race.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 09/08/2026 - 06:55 Close
Tue, 08 Sep 2026 10:30:00 +0000 The Bond Selloff Isn't Fiscal Armageddon, It's The End Of A Decade Of Financial Repression; Deutsche Bank
The Bond Selloff Isn't Fiscal Armageddon, It's The End Of A Decade Of Financial Repression; Deutsche Bank
The Bond Selloff Isn't Fiscal Armageddon, It's The End Of A Decade Of Financial Repression; Deutsche Bank
Authored by Jim Reid, Deutsche Bank global head of macro research,
The latest global bond sell-off has revived the idea that markets are fretting over unsustainable public finances. As concerned as I am by this issue in the longer term, the recent bond market weakness at the moment should be seen more as a continuation of the long normalisation from the historic anomaly of the 2010s.
That was a decade of financial repression with central banks buying trillions in government debt, benchmark policy rates sitting near zero, and sovereign borrowing costs held down for years. Had you been on a desert island for a couple of decades, the level of yields today would look perfectly normal at the end of your sabbatical from the world, not at crisis levels.
At Deutsche Bank, our house view has consistently been in recent years that yields would rise due to heavy government issuance, the retreat of quantitative easing programmes of bond buying by central banks and inflation levels that have been persistently higher and more volatile than the pre-pandemic period. In the US, inflation has now been above the Federal Reserve’s 2 per cent target for more than five years.
There is also some positive news that has supported higher yields. Global growth has held up better than most expected since the conflict with Iran began. US nominal GDP growth in the second quarter was 6.6 per cent year on year, which, outside the Covid-19 bounceback period, was the highest level since 2005. Clearly, part of this reflects higher energy prices and inflation, but there is no doubt that real growth is also holding up, partly thanks to the continuing AI boom. This has also increased corporate debt supply, which has competed with government bonds for investor demand in recent months. European growth, meanwhile, is also performing better than many thought possible in the face of an all-too-familiar energy shock for the continent.
And make no mistake, fiscal concerns are real and higher borrowing costs potentially worsen debt arithmetic, especially if growth fades.
The big shift, though, is that the equilibrium rate for bond yields is higher than markets became accustomed to in the ultra-loose era.
This has raised understandable concern, but one thing has been under-reported: returns for investors are starting to stabilise and, in many cases, have been positive over recent months and years.
This has been a welcome change from the early 2020s, when low starting yields offered no protection from the bear market. Rolling five- and 10-year total returns are still around their lowest on record across many government bond markets. However, the worst of the negative-return period is probably behind us.
Over the past year, the Bloomberg US Treasury Total Return index delivered a positive return even as 10-year yields rose by about 0.60 percentage points. From current levels, the 10-year yield would need to rise to roughly 5.5 per cent over the next year, or 6.4 per cent over two years, before total returns turned negative. An investor who bought 10-year Treasuries at the October 2023 yield peak of 4.99 per cent would now have a total return of more than 16 per cent. It is a useful reminder of how much starting yield now matters.
The UK provides an even clearer example, given the constant negative headlines. Ten-year gilt yields are now about 0.65 percentage points above the peaks reached during the 2022 mini-Budget crisis. Yet the broad gilt index has returned roughly 12 per cent since those crisis highs. There hasn’t been any prolonged period of negative returns in gilts over those four years.
This does not mean the secular adjustment is complete. Outside of a material downgrade to growth expectations or an external shock, the forces encouraging yields to move upwards are unlikely to disappear, but at least we’re in the ballpark of normal again. Over the past 100 years, a period with regular and large swings in prices, inflation has averaged 3 per cent in the US and 4 per cent in the UK — a higher level than that seen since 1990 but lower than current long-dated yields.
After years in which returns depended heavily on capital gains, more normal levels of yields are again providing income that can compound over time, which is helping to cushion volatility and steadily reward patience. The pressures will remain, and it’s hard to see spectacular returns, especially in real terms, but at least bonds have become bonds again, and investors should bear this in mind when the next inevitable bad headline comes through.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 09/08/2026 - 06:30 Close
Tue, 08 Sep 2026 09:55:00 +0000 AfD's Historic Win Shocks German Political Establishment: Here's What Happens Next
AfD's Historic Win Shocks German Political Establishment: Here's What Happens Next
The pro-Germany, anti-globalist, anti-mass migration right-wing populist party known as Alternative für Deutschland delivered its Read more.....
AfD's Historic Win Shocks German Political Establishment: Here's What Happens Next
The pro-Germany, anti-globalist, anti-mass migration right-wing populist party known as Alternative für Deutschland delivered its strongest election result ever in Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday, dealing a sharp blow to Germany's political establishment.
On Sunday, AfD secured 43.8% of the vote in Sunday's regional election , exceeding polling estimates. Chancellor Friedrich Merz's Christian Democrats lost about 19 percentage points, while turnout surged to 77.8% from 60.3% in 2021.
According to Marion Mühlberger, a senior economist at Deutsche Bank, AfD's weekend win leaves the party holding 39 seats in the 83-member legislature, three short of an absolute majority . The CDU, Social Democrats, Greens and Left also have a combined 39 seats.
Mühlberger said there are two possible outcomes of what comes next : an AfD minority government tolerated by BSW, or a political stalemate that leads to a snap election, which would only give AfD a new opportunity to secure outright control.
Mühlbergere explained:
At the time of writing, the two most likely options are i) an AfD minority government (supported by the BSW) or ii) a stalemate resulting in snap elections, with the AfD hoping to reach an absolute majority rather than attempting a minority government. AfD leadership for now appears undecided on their preference: while national co-leader Chrupalla last night indicated a willingness to try a minority government, AfD's lead candidate in Saxony-Anhalt, Ulrich Siegmund, already suggested a snap election as his preferred option, saying that "the AfD is not prepared to make far- reaching compromise to form a coalition."
We believe that even an AfD (minority) government supported by the BSW would have materially detrimental ramifications for the economic prospects of Saxony-Anhalt over the coming years . Direct investment in the state would likely decline amid significant policy uncertainty, and skilled worker shortages would likely become even more pronounced. However, Saxony-Anhalt contributes less than 2% of German GDP, and any structural damage done to the regional economy is unlikely to spill over to the rest of the German economy. While an AfD state government might test some of Germany's federal institutions, it will have no leverage over national economic or fiscal policy, not even via the constitutional court.
Over the course of today, we will see leaders of the coalition parties in Berlin officially react to their parties' weak electoral performance. Chancellor Merz is expected to give a press statement today at 13.30 CET. There will likely be considerable political noise over the couple of weeks ahead of the state elections on 20 September in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern . There may be some criticism of party leadership and reform proposals. However, once these final state elections of the year are over, we believe that an AfD government in Saxony-Anhalt is likely to provide an additional impetus for the federal government coalition to double down on reforms
Mühlbergere said the five seats held by the populist BSW will be decisive:
Thus, the populist BSW, with its 5 seats, has a key role to play in the upcoming coalition negotiations as potential kingmakers . While the AfD missed their 45+% / absolute majority election target, they missed it so narrowly that it seems difficult for them to not aim for governing Saxony-Anhalt
The BSW is the potential kingmaker
As no single party reached an absolute majority needed to govern alone, coalition negotiations for entering a formal coalition or receiving ad hoc support for a minority government will kick off today.
The BSW has theoretically three options once the new parliament has convened and the next state premier is to be elected. First, they could elect the AfD lead candidate as state premier (without entering a formal coalition), second they could elect the CDU lead candidate or third they could abstain in the first two ballots for state premier.
Judging from statements of BSW co-leaders (at the federal level) Wagenknecht and Ali yesterday night,1 we deem the first option the most likely.
What comes next? There are two options:
Option 1 - BSW abstains in third round facilitating an AfD minority government
This morning, BSW leader Wagenknecht called for a "political reset" in Saxony- Anhalt, especially when it comes to energy policy, sanctions against Russia (which however are set at the EU level), education, and public broadcasting. Thus, there is a certain overlap of political priorities with the AfD. However, the BSW does not want to enter a formal coalition with the AfD.
With the AfD rejecting the BSW's proposal for an independent state premier, an AfD minority government tolerated by the BSW seems to be a possible outcome. This means that the BSW would not enter a formal coalition with the AfD, but elect the AfD lead candidate as state premier in an informal cooperation.
Option 2 - The route to snap elections
The newly elected parliament must convene for the first time by 6 October at the latest. But the regional constitution does not set a deadline for electing a state premier. Until a new government is elected, Sven Schulze will remain in office leading the caretaker government.
As government formation could turn out to be complex, snap elections may be a possible way out . The AfD's lead candidate Siegmund already suggested this as a potential option, saying that the AfD is not prepared to make far-reaching compromise to form a coalition.
There are three routes to snap elections:
If the newly elected parliament does not elect a state premier with an absolute majority after two ballots, it can decide with an absolute majority to dissolve itself before a third ballot.
Six months after the election, the new parliament can decide with a two- thirds majority to dissolve itself.
A newly elected state premier could call a vote of confidence. This could be a viable option for an AfD minority government, confident of winning an absolute majority in snap elections.
It is highly uncertain that snap elections would generate clear majorities. What could help the AfD is the narrative that the other parties want to keep them out of power, and that they now need a clear mandate . Moreover, smaller parties would again be at risk of not making the 5% hurdle, which would help the AfD. On the other hand, the strong AfD performance could again mobilise the centrist forces to avoid the AfD winning an absolute majority.
Mühlberger's assessment was that an AfD majority in Saxony-Anhalt could weaken investment and aggravate skilled-worker shortages. She cited policy uncertainty, the party's anti-mass migration agenda, and potential conflict with the civil service.
For Merz, the most consequential challenge is containing AfD's momentum in the upcoming elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern on Sept. 20.
Polymarket's "Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner " market puts AfD's odds of winning at 82%.
AfD's odds of winning the Berlin election are much lower, at around 18%.
While Deutsche Bank was considerably less favorable toward AfD, Nomura analyst Andrzej Szczepaniak's recent report said that markets are less concerned about right-wing populism and more concerned about "populist left-wing parties being elected due to their desire to increase spending ."
Tyler Durden
Tue, 09/08/2026 - 05:55 Close
Tue, 08 Sep 2026 09:45:00 +0000 Ukraine's 'Mood Swing' Against Zelensky: Widespread Fraud, Wartime Protests, Unpopular Dismissals
Ukraine's 'Mood Swing' Against Zelensky: Widespread Fraud, Wartime Protests, Unpopular Dismissals
The mainstream media is turning on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and more and more of his population may be doing the same,
Read more.....
Ukraine's 'Mood Swing' Against Zelensky: Widespread Fraud, Wartime Protests, Unpopular Dismissals
The mainstream media is turning on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and more and more of his population may be doing the same, at a moment of multiple high level corruption cases running straight through the presidential office .
To review, this was the second straight summer that controversial decisions by Zelensky sparked rare war time protests in Ukraine . In summer of 2025, Zelensky moved to weaken and de-legitimize two key national anti-corruption bodies. After, he came under immense pressure, also from Europe, and was forced to reverse course .
AFP/Getty Images
Then in July of this year, he dismised his popular young defense minister amid a major military reshuffling, which appears to be ongoing. Mykhailo Fedorov had been just six months on the job, and Ukrainians were by and large pleased with his strategy and direction in the war.
A sort of internal civil war had been raging between top military command and defense ministry ranks. Zelensky's intervention and final reshuffle remains highly controversial and unpopular.
Days ago, the 'esteemed' and very establishment journal, Foreign Policy ran a surprise headline strongly suggesting a popular swing among the citizenry against his rule, which has been extended amid canceled elections and martial law:
Ukraine’s Mood Swing: Public sentiment is turning against Zelensky amid corruption concerns and weariness with his rule.
"For most of his presidency and especially since Russia launched its full-scale war, Ukrainian voters have rallied around Volodymyr Zelensky as a pillar of national resilience and unity," the FP report introduces of the 'good ole days'. "That’s for good reason: He has been an effective wartime leader and helped mobilize the democratic world on Ukraine’s behalf.
"But now, after more than seven years in office, four and a half years of war with Russia, and a series of scandals involving his leadership team and close friends, Zelensky appears to have lost the nation’s political support," it then adds. "Indeed, polling published in early August points to a major mood swing among Ukrainians, suggesting that many of them have lost faith in Zelensky and would vote him out of office at the earliest opportunity ."
Following on this, the NY Times on Sunday detailed how Ukraine lost around $1.2 billion to fraud, waste and mismanagement in military procurement activities. This was in 2024 alone, the paper found, based on confidential documents and audits.
The NYT characterized the waste and fraud as a "persistent phenomenon" led by seven large military contractors in Ukraine, all of which kept landing new large contracts despite ongoing fraud investigations into them.
One section of the Times report reads as follows :
But even as the officials noticed that weapons were arriving faulty, government audits obtained by The New York Times show, Ukraine’s Defense Procurement Agency continued to award Mr. Shyman’s factory new contracts .
The case reflects a persistent phenomenon of the war in Ukraine. Seven of Ukraine’s top 10 military contractors won new business despite open criminal investigations for fraud, failures to deliver on earlier deals or the arrest of chief executives for corruption , according to the government audits obtained by The Times, court records and Ukrainian news accounts.
The devastating report concludes that in Ukraine, wrongdoing is continually 'rewarded' with new opportunities and contracts, at a moment hundreds of billions in European and US aid continues to get doled out.
You don't see THIS everyday...
President Trump has long criticized certain elements of Zelensky's extended rule, even calling him out for resisting calls to hold new national elections, but more recently began to hail 'results' against Russia on the military front, given the persisting long-range drone program which has wreaked havoc on Russian energy infrastructure.
But as the mainstream continues to 'turn' on Zelensky (and possibly the military too), and given more and more instances of a population 'mood swing' - how long does he have? The clock is ticking .
Tyler Durden
Tue, 09/08/2026 - 05:45 Close
Tue, 08 Sep 2026 09:00:00 +0000 'Deeply Shocked': Merz Speaks Of 'Consequences' After Historic CDU Defeat
'Deeply Shocked': Merz Speaks Of 'Consequences' After Historic CDU Defeat
'Deeply Shocked': Merz Speaks Of 'Consequences' After Historic CDU Defeat
via Remix News ,
Germany's political establishment is still absorbing the shock of Sunday's state election in Saxony-Anhalt, where the Alternative for Germany (AfD) surged to 43.8 percent and the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) of Chancellor Friedrich Merz crashed to 17.2 percent .
Merz called the result the CDU's "heaviest defeat" in decades and said it could not simply be treated as business as usual.
"And I have to admit, this is the heaviest electoral defeat that the CDU has suffered in years, in decades," Merz told reporters in Berlin after CDU leadership meetings. "We are all deeply shocked...We did not expect it to be like this."
"That does something to us. Including me personally... All of this will, of course, have to have consequences," he continued.
It remains unclear what those "consequences" will be exactly, as Merz did not clarify. However, he did point to two upcoming elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, which will be held in the next two weeks. If the CDU faces further routs, there may be pressure for Merz to step down.
He accepted the democratic verdict but insisted the outcome had changed the political landscape "not only in Saxony-Anhalt, but throughout Germany." When nearly 60 percent of voters backed parties that question the country's democratic institutions, he said, "that is an election result with which we can not just treat as business as usual."
Merz said he was searching for explanations, including in his own record: "What fear is there in the population that we may have underestimated?"
Merz has plans to hold talks in the coming days with SPD leaders on how the coalition could continue on its present course. "Giving up is not an option," he added.
Meanwhile, the AfD federal co-leaders Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla pledged support for an AfD government in Saxony-Anhalt. Weidel called it a "dream result" and argued Merz had become "a great burden." She predicted the CDU/CSU would never again win a federal election and said the AfD's goal was to widen the gap to at least 40 percent by the next national vote. Chrupalla called the outcome "absolutely historic."
Merz's coalition partner, Bärbel Bas of the far-left Social Democrats (SPD), used her own press conference to argue that the government's language on work and welfare had itself fueled public anxiety.
Outgoing Minister-President Sven Schulze was blunt: the CDU no longer held a government mandate and would sit in opposition. He ruled out CDU defectors joining any AfD-led arrangement and predicted the BSW would help put an AfD in power.
AfD lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund described the result as "a very clear government mandate" and said he could be "perhaps the next minister-president."
As Remix News reported, the AfD has a real opportunity to lead Saxony-Anhalt , but a number of scenarios could play out, including a coalition with BSW or even a snap election.
Read more here...
Tyler Durden
Tue, 09/08/2026 - 05:00 Close
Tue, 08 Sep 2026 08:15:00 +0000 The Exodus Continues... Britain's 3rd Largest Taxpayer Escapes To Greece
The Exodus Continues... Britain's 3rd Largest Taxpayer Escapes To Greece
Britain’s highest taxpayers have been drifting offshore since the non-dom regime was scrapped in April 2025 and inheritance tax was extended t
Read more.....
The Exodus Continues... Britain's 3rd Largest Taxpayer Escapes To Greece
Britain’s highest taxpayers have been drifting offshore since the non-dom regime was scrapped in April 2025 and inheritance tax was extended to worldwide assets.
This shift is already visible on the Sunday Times lists : six of the 2026 Tax List’s top 100 (including Revolut’s Nik Storonsky) had left in the previous year, the compiler noted that one in nine names on that list were no longer UK-resident , and the companion Rich List dropped dozens of foreign billionaires while recording a sharp rise in British nationals now based in Dubai, Switzerland and Monaco .
But, the latest news is likely the most disturbing to the increasingly socialist government as the UK's 3rd largest taxpayer - hedge fund founder Chris Rokos - is set to leave.
The star trader paid a stunning £330 million ($447 million) in taxes last year...
That's one hell of a hole for Burnham and his buddies to fill.
As Bloomberg reports , Rokos is the latest in a string of high-profile financiers and business leaders that have opted to leave.
Since winning the general election in 2024, Labour has targeted wealth with taxes on non-domiciled residents, inheritance on family farms and businesses, private equity and private school fees.
At her last budget, former chancellor Rachel Reeves introduced a tax on homes worth more than £2 million.
With a net worth of about $4 billion according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, Rokos is among the UK’s most prominent figures in finance.
The Rokos Capital Management founder is switching his residency to Greece , people with knowledge of the arrangement said.
Rokos will also open an office in Athens as part of the move, one of the people said, asking not to be identified because the details are private.
Greece offers a 15-year high-net-worth investor regime.
Italy operates a similar 15-year system, but after recent increases, it has set the flat tax at €300,000 on foreign-sourced income.
Greece has also sought to lure fund managers and private equity executives, adopting new tax rules this summer designed to prevent double taxation.
If the highest taxpayers keep leaving - as Rokos’s reported move to Greece underlines - Labour’s bet that abolishing non-doms and tightening inheritance tax would raise more money starts to look fragile , because a thin slice of people already supplies a large share of income-tax receipts.
The government then faces an awkward choice: accept a smaller tax base and tighter budgets, or raise rates on the mobile and immobile alike and risk accelerating the outflow it is trying to tax.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 09/08/2026 - 04:15 Close
Tue, 08 Sep 2026 08:00:00 +0000 Iran To Draw New "Restricted Zone" In Hormuz As Saudi Aramco Facility Hit Again, Oil Climbs
Iran To Draw New "Restricted Zone" In Hormuz As Saudi Aramco Facility Hit Again, Oil Climbs
At a moment US officials have been boasting of more and more oil tankers making it through the Strait of Hormuz under US naval protection an
Read more.....
Iran To Draw New "Restricted Zone" In Hormuz As Saudi Aramco Facility Hit Again, Oil Climbs
At a moment US officials have been boasting of more and more oil tankers making it through the Strait of Hormuz under US naval protection and support, Iran has previewed a new 'restricted zone' in the Gulf , which it says will be announced in the coming days.
The announcement is expected to include maps of the new shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz, likely to begin from where the US blockade of Iran starts and extending into areas of the Gulf, according to Iran's Supreme National Security Council on Sunday.
Jizan Industrial Gas Complex
"The maps of a new international corridor which lies in Iranian and Omani waters and in which Iran will have management have been agreed and should be signed in the coming days," national security council official Mohsen Rezaei said.
"We will only commit to the Strait of Hormuz being open when they (the Americans) stop the sabotage, threats and attacks on Iran ," he added. Per a Monday Bloomberg note:
Oil advances, with Brent futures trading above $97 a barrel, after US attacks on Iranian tankers and Tehran’s threat of a new restricted zone outside the Strait of Hormuz. European natural gas prices surge. Meanwhile, Ukraine is resigned to Russia’s war dragging on through another tough winter.
Also, in a latest Monday warning, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has put US energy firms on notice, saying they could be targeted if Iranian tankers continue to be attacked (following precisely a rare US airstrike on an Iranian civilian tanker).
According to Ghalibaf's words on X : "It's simple: the oil and gas production chain here is sprawling, accessible, and exposed. American oil and gas companies across these waters and facilities share that exposure. Strike our assets and you get struck . We’ve already proven it. Ask the bases that are no longer viable."
Brent reaches high since July 23
The top Iranian negotiator also said in a weekend speech , "The Americans must have understood that the era of proportionate responses has come to an end ," adding that "any aggression against Iran's interests and security will receive a faster, more intense and more painful response .”
Across the Gulf, the UAE is voicing its frustration , vowing to establish alternative energy routes :
The United Arab ?Emirates is building alternative routes for its energy exports and trade to ensure they are not "held ?hostage" by the ongoing war between the U.S. and Iran, UAE presidential adviser Anwar Gargash said on Monday.
"Our energy exports will not be held hostage , nor will our trade and economic activity," Gargash ?said before the Hili Forum in Abu Dhabi.
Meanwhile, not helping rising energy prices is fresh reporting out of Saudi Arabia of key oil facilities hit, likely by more Houthi attacks from neighboring Yemen.
"Saudi Aramco’s oil facilities in the Saudi Arabian city of Jizan have been attacked only a month after a separate strike temporarily knocked out some production at its refinery," Financial Times reports. "The company’s oil infrastructure was hit on Monday and the damage was being assessed, said two people with knowledge of the matter."
Tehran continues to see itself as having the ability to leverage economic blowback against Washington...
Jizan provides a convenient targeting opportunity for the Houthis given its closeness to the Yemeni border as a significant Saudi industrial city. The Iran-linked group has not immediately claimed responsibility for any fresh attacks on the kingdom, however.
Bloomberg reports Monday, "The latest attack didn’t cause major damage , the people said, asking not to be identified discussing confidential matters. The 400,000 barrel-a-day refinery remains shut following a strike in July , one of them said."
The Houthis have sought to impose a blockade on Saudi Arabia's Red Sea ports since July - and this has been coupled by sporadic major drone and missile attacks on Saudi oil sites. Ansar Allah is no doubt working in tandem with Tehran keep up the pressure on global energy markets.
Weekend & Overnight Developments
US launched strikes against three Iranian crude oil tankers on Saturday, which destroyed one, in retaliation for the IRGC targeting US Navy warships with ballistic missiles.
Iran’s navy said it targeted three oil tankers that were travelling through unauthorised routes in the Strait of Hormuz and three additional US vessels in other areas.
US President Trump said on Friday that they do intermittent strikes in Iran and that the Iran issue is a military conflict, while he added that they may hit Pickaxe Mountain very soon. Trump warned that if anything goes badly with Iran, they may hit them hard and have essentially taken over Iran. He also claimed there have been no shootings for days and there are no mines in the Strait.
US Energy Secretary Wright said a nuclear deal with Iran may not be achievable in the near term and military action may be needed to address threats from Iran, according to ABC News.
Iran's top security official Rezaei said Iran and Oman will sign agreed Strait of Hormuz passage maps in the coming days and that Iran will commit to keeping the Strait of Hormuz open when the US neither threatens Iran nor attacks it. Rezaei also stated that they will announce in the coming days and weeks a restricted zone outside the Strait of Hormuz that starts from the US Navy's blockade line and extends through the strait into the Persian Gulf, and any ship identified entering this zone with the intention of passing through the strait will be added to the sanctions list. Furthermore, he said that Iran tested an Iranian anti-ship missile above a US warship for the first time and claimed the missile created 'hell' for the Americans 'and they fled'.
Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Ghalibaf warned that Iran’s response to any attack against its interests and security would be faster, heavier and more painful.
Iran's Foreign Ministry said the US-led war is disrupting global oil trade and costs, while it added that US aggression is causing instability in the Strait of Hormuz.
Israeli military announced that it struck southern Lebanon after Hezbollah launched drones towards Israeli soldiers in the security zone. Israel's army also issued an evacuation warning to residents of a building in Deir Zahrani, southern Lebanon.
Israeli Finance Minister Smotrich said PM Netanyahu ordered the evacuation of certain settlement outposts in the West Bank. It was separately reported that Israel conducted an airstrike on eastern Gaza City with four missiles.
Joint statement by UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, Indonesia, Pakistan, Turkey and Egypt Foreign Ministers strongly condemned statements made by Israel's National Security Minister Ben-Gvir and Defence Minister Katz regarding the displacement of Palestinians.
Yemeni armed forces said they thwarted an attempt by Houthis to infiltrate the Dabab front, while they announced that warplanes struck Houthi positions in Balhaf and south of Hodeidah.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 09/08/2026 - 04:00 Close
Tue, 08 Sep 2026 07:30:00 +0000 Why Won't China Cut Ukraine Off From Drone-Related Sales?
Why Won't China Cut Ukraine Off From Drone-Related Sales?
Why Won't China Cut Ukraine Off From Drone-Related Sales?
Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack ,
Indefinitely perpetuating the Ukrainian Conflict through these means indefinitely delays the full implementation of the US' planned "Pivot (back) to (East) Asia", can lead to Russia selling its natural resource wealth to China at bargain-basement prices, and maintains China's "active neutrality".
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) referenced the EU's summertime disbursement of the first €1 billion to Ukraine for drone procurement out of the €6 billion promised for this program in an article late last month about how "Ukraine's Drone War Exposes An Uncomfortable Reliance On China ". They drew attention to the carve-out allowing Ukraine to purchase Chinese parts with these funds, ergo the politically incorrect observation back then that "The EU Plans To Pay China To Help Ukraine Kill Russians ".
RFE/RL reported that "While Kyiv has cut back on the purchase of ready-made drones from China, components such as motors, lithium batteries, and fiberoptics are still in high demand." Additionally, "In the first six months of 2026, imports of Chinese parts had already reached around 76 percent of the total recorded for the previous year." They also cited a Ukrainian report which claimed that "38 percent of the value of drone components imported by Ukraine in the first half of 2025 came from China."
The purpose of their piece appears to be to instill a sense of urgency in Ukraine and the West alike to radically ramp up domestic drone production in order to reduce what one of their cited experts described as Ukraine's "hostile interdependence" on China. They explained that "Beijing remains Kyiv's largest trading partner, while Ukraine is a key supplier of agricultural goods to China." That's true, and it's one of the reasons why China won't cut Ukraine off from drone-related sales, but there's more to it.
While Sino-Russo ties are better than at anytime in history, it was suspected as far back as early 2023 that "China Doesn't Want Anyone To Win In Ukraine ", the reason being that a supposedly manageable forever war would indefinitely delay the full implementation of the US' planned "Pivot (back) to (East) Asia ". Moreover, resource-rich Russia could become disproportionately dependent on China, thus leading to Moscow selling its natural wealth to Beijing at bargain-basement prices.
In pursuit of this cynical end, China has simultaneously played an irreplaceable role in providing Ukraine with drones, parts, and fiber optics (even if only indirectly through intermediaries like apologists have speculated) while serving as an irreplaceable valve from sanctions pressure for Russia. Ukraine is therefore able to keep pace with Russia's military-technical advancements, the Russian economy avoids the crisis that the West sought to catalyze through sanctions, and China maintains its "active neutrality".
The last point refers to China actively helping Ukraine and Russia, thus making it neutral in the sense of not taking either side. China financially profits from Ukraine's drone-related purchases, its economy continues growing due to the large-scale import of heavily discounted Russian energy, and it relatively reduces the overall Western pressure upon it by proving that it's not secretly "allied" with Russia. This policy, for whatever one might think about its merits, indisputably contributed to prolonging the conflict .
Had China cut Ukraine off from its drone-related sales in the spirit of its "no-limits" partnership with Russia that was declared several weeks before the start of special operation , then Russia might have attained more of its stated objectives in the conflict by now, if not outright achieved maximum victory . The US' military and intelligence support for Ukraine is more important than China's drone-related sales, but since there's no end to US support in sight , Russia should try to get China to finally cut Ukraine off.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 09/08/2026 - 03:30 Close