CMR is the leading provider of funding and management support for small to medium-sized businesses and entrepreneurs 

The China-Japan spat now seems to be accelerating by the day, with Tokyo warning in the aftermath of Tuesday's dual use export curb announcement by China's commerce ministry that the fresh action could "impact more than 40% of Chinese exports to Japan" - according to Bloomberg.

In unveiling its fresh punitive measures Tuesday, marking a serious escalation, a Chinese government spokesperson railed against Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's "erroneous" comments from last November where she suggested her forces could defend Taiwan in a future invasion by China.

"These comments constitute a crude interference in China’s internal affairs, seriously violate the one-China principle and are extremely harmful in nature and impact," the statement said, followed by a warning that any entity or individual which violates the export ban will be held legally accountable. These new controls on 'military-civilian' dual use are likely to affect shipments of semiconductors and rare earth materials to Japan's Self-Defense Forces and defense industry firms - which is without doubt the intent, and signals that greater punishment and damage could be further implemented at any time.

Within hours of Beijing unveiling these measures, Masaaki Kanai, secretary general of the Japanese Foreign Ministry’s Asian and Oceanian Affairs Bureau, had "strongly protested and demanded the withdrawal of these measures."

Kanai conveyed the formal diplomatic protest to the Chinese embassy's deputy chief of mission in Tokyo, Shi Yong. Kanai said the measures "deviate significantly from international practice, is absolutely unacceptable and deeply regrettable."

But Beijing isn't backing down, also after its sought-for formal retraction and apology from Takaichi has failed to materialize. Instead, Japan is bracing for continued incremental punitive measures. The latest includes China's Commerce Ministry further announcing an anti-dumping probe into Japan Dichlorosilane imports. According to the new statement and press release:

China's Ministry of Commerce announced on Wednesday that it has initiated an anti-dumping investigation into imports of dichlorosilane originating from Japan. Dichlorosilane is a chemical critical to the manufacture of semiconductor chips.

The investigation is not scheduled to conclude until January next year, and could be extended for an additional six months if deemed necessary, according to a ministry statement. On Tuesday, the ministry announced control measures on the export of dual-use items to Japan.

According to a ministry spokesperson, the investigation was initiated after requests by domestic manufacturers in China.

"The preliminary evidence submitted by the applicant indicates that from 2022 to 2024, the volume of dichlorosilane imported from Japan showed an overall increasing trend, with its cumulative price decline reaching 31 percent," the spokesperson said.

But some analysts consider that there still a chance for de-escalation and walk-back, with Global risk consultancy Teneo describing that the lack of clarity in China’s announcement may be deliberate.

"The brief statement by China’s commerce ministry is vague, and the impact of the new measures could range from almost entirely symbolic to highly disruptive," the consultancy said. "By triggering concern in Japan about the ongoing availability of critical Chinese industrial inputs, the announcement puts immediate pressure on Takaichi to offer concessions," Teneo added.

"A plausible scenario is that the commerce ministry initially rejects a small handful of license applications, creating only minor supply-chain disruption but signaling potential for broader damage in future unless Tokyo takes conciliatory action."

Bloomberg noted overnight that shares tied to rare earths rose across Asia-Pacific markets within the day after the announcement. It reviews that Tokyo trading, Toyo Engineering Corp - which develops technology to extract rare earths from the seabed - surged 20%. And Cerium producer Daiichi Kigenso Kagaku-Kogyo Co jumped as much as 27%. Australian-based companies surged as well, with Lynas Rare Earths Ltd climbing as much as 16%, its biggest gain since July, and Australian Strategic Materials Ltd advancing nearly 10%.

On Wednesday a fresh Bloomberg headline further noted: "The Japan-China squabble is causing some jitters after a strong start to the year for the region’s stocks." It added: "The rally had also started to show signs of overheating. The 14-day relative strength index for the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed above 70 this week, entering technical overbought territory for the first time since early October."

Despite the open question of just how the export controls will be implemented, China Daily has indeed confirmed that the restrictions will extend to rare earth-related products.

China had already been steadily retaliating through measures related to curbing trade, cultural exchanges, and tourism - coupled with threats of more punitive action to come. There have lately been some serious military 'close calls' as well.

While today's ADP report was a solid rebound from the worst monthly report in years (even if it missed expectations due to a sudden plunge in California payrolls), the same could not be said for the JOLTS job opening report that followed less than two hours later, and which was another epic disaster: for the month of November (recall JOLTS lags the payrolls report by a month), the US had only 7.146 million job openings, a huge drop from the 7.670 million in October (which was conveniently revised lower to 7.449 million) and the lowest since September 2024.

The November print was also a 3+ sigma miss to expectations and came in below the lowest estimate (that of TD Securities).

According to the BLS, the number of job openings decreased in accommodation and food services (-148,000); transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-108,000); and wholesale trade (-63,000). Job openings increased in construction (+90,000).

But the most notable drop by far, was that in government, where the number of workers collapsed to the lowest level since early 2021.

Meanwhile, after four years of the US labor market dodging the bullet, its luck has finally run out because while until just a few months ago, the labor market was supply-constrained, with more job openings than unemployed workers in the US, in November we are finally back to sharply demand constrained, with 685k fewer job openings than unemployed workers, the most since March 2021...

... and translating into a 0.9 ratio of job openings to unemployed workers, the first sub-1.0x print in 4 years.

While the job openings data was ugly and potentially another harbinger of the coming jobs recession - things were even uglier below the surface, as the number of new hires tumbled by 253K - the biggest one month drrop since June 2024 - to 5.1156MM the lowest since June 2024.

The only silver lining is that the number of people quitting their jobs - also known as the take this job and shove it indicator - rebounded by almost 200K, to 3.161MM, from 2.994MM.

 

Putting it all together, despite a rather solid ADP print earlier, today's JOLTS report was quite terrible and certainly enough to ensure that Fed rate cuts continue (assuming no dramatic improvement in Friday's job report). The flip side, of course, is that this report took place when the government was still mostly shut down, so our advice would be to just ignore everything since it is not indicative of the current state of the US economy after it reopened shortly after Democrats captiulated without achieving anything. 

Math skills are a foundational input into modern economies. They support innovation, productivity, and long-term competitiveness. As technology and data-driven work become more central, countries with stronger math outcomes often gain an edge.

This infographic, via Visual Capitalist's Bruno Venditti, ranks countries by their average math scores among 15–16 year-olds.

The data for this visualization comes from the OECD’s PISA 2022 assessment. PISA measures how well students can apply math knowledge to practical problems, offering a global comparison of education systems.

Scores typically range from below 400 to above 600. Top performers in this dataset score well above the OECD average of 472.

East Asia Sets the Global Benchmark

Singapore ranks first with an average math score of 575.

Macau (SAR), Taiwan, Hong Kong (SAR), Japan, and South Korea also appear near the top of the ranking. These economies have consistently prioritized math education through rigorous programs and high academic expectations.

Rank	Country	Average PISA Score
1	???? Singapore	575
2	???? Macau	552
3	???? Taiwan	547
4	???? Hong Kong	540
5	???? Japan	536
6	???? South Korea	527
7	???? Estonia	510
8	???? Switzerland	508
9	???? Canada	497
10	???? Netherlands	493
11	???? Ireland	492
12	???? Belgium	489
13	???? Denmark	489
14	???? United Kingdom	489
15	???? Poland	489
16	???? Australia	487
17	???? Austria	487
18	???? Czech Republic	487
19	???? Slovenia	485
20	???? Finland	484
21	???? Latvia	483
22	???? Sweden	482
23	???? New Zealand	479
24	???? Germany	475
25	???? Lithuania	475
26	???? France	474
27	???? Spain	473
28	???? Hungary	473
29	???? Portugal	472
	?? OECD average	472
30	???? Italy	471
31	???? Norway	468
32	???? Malta	466
33	???? U.S.	465
34	???? Slovakia	464
35	???? Croatia	463

Europe’s Strong, Steady Performers

Several European countries cluster just above or around the 500 mark. Estonia leads the region, followed closely by Switzerland and the Netherlands. Ireland, Belgium, Denmark, and Poland also post solid results.

How North America Compares

Canada ranks ninth overall with a score of 497, standing out as one of the strongest performers outside East Asia and Europe. The United States ranks lower at 465, below the OECD average.

Countries from Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America are absent from the list, reflecting long-standing gaps in educational performance across regions.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out Ranked: Productivity of the World’s Largest 30 Economies (2005-2025) on Voronoi, the app from Visual Capitalist.

By Elwin de Groot, Head of Macro Strategy at Rabobank

You may already have buckled yourself up, but an arctic chill may also require you to wear an extra vest these days. President Trump and some officials in his administration amplified threats to take Greenland. Preferably by “buying” it, but by force if necessary.

The White House yesterday said it is discussing options for acquiring Greenland, including potential use of the military. The key reason put forward in a statement is that it sees this action as neccessary to “deter our adversaries in the Arctic region”. "The president and his team are discussing a range of options to pursue this important foreign policy goal, and of course, utilizing the U.S. military is always an option at the commander-in-chief's disposal," the White House said.

Several government officials did try to take the sting out of that last sentence. US special envoy to Greenland, Jeff Landry, told CNBC that Trump isn’t ready to seize the island and the President “supports an independent Greenland,” whilst the Wall Street Journal reported that Secretary of State Marco Rubio told lawmakers during a classified briefing on Monday that recent administration threats against Greenland did not signal an imminent invasion and that the goal is to buy the island from Denmark.

Meanwhile US Senate Democrats have said they plan to introduce a resolution to block Trump from invading Greenland. The US has portrayed its action in Venezuela as support for the ‘arrest' of Maduro, which -some argue- offered the president more leeway. But the Greenland case may not be so easy to fit into that category.  

Still, the threat remains wide open on the table now. And that this risks driving a big wedge between the US and its allies is clear. Earlier this week, Denmark’s Premier Mette Frederikson had already warned that, while she is taking the threats by the Trump administration seriously, “everything stops, including NATO and thus the security that has been established since the end of the Second World War”, should the US choose to attack another NATO country.

What is interesting, is that the US has long neglected its military presence on Greenland. Since 1951 it has had a Defense Agreement with Denmark, establishing the operation of Pituffik (Thule) Air Base on the island. During the Cold War this hosted up to 6,000 US personnel across several camps; today that presence has shrunk dramatically to roughly 150 service members. Last June Denmark’s parliament expanded US access to the island through the 2023 Defence Cooperation Agreement (DCA), giving it broad rights to station personnel, store equipment, conduct maintenance and exercises and have jurisdiction over US troops.

The reference to these existing arrangements was also a key feature in a (quite unusual) joint statement by the leaders from France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, the UK and Denmark yesterday. It notes that “Arctic security remains a key priority for Europe and it is critical for international and transatlantic security. NATO has made clear that the Arctic region is a priority and European Allies are stepping up. We and many other Allies have increased our presence, activities and investments, to keep the Arctic safe and to deter adversaries. The Kingdom of Denmark – including Greenland – is part of NATO.” The statement emphasizes NATO unity and collective security in the Arctic and the importance of adhering to UN principles: sovereignty, territorial integrity and the inviolability of borders. It also declares that Greenland’s future is for its people and Denmark to decide.

How the situation and diplomatic activity around Greenland evolves in the coming weeks could also have a bearing on that other – and much more acute – dossier, namely Ukraine. On that front there was actually some positive news yesterday. After meeting in Paris with Zelenskyy and European leaders from the ‘coalition of the willing’, US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff said that “significant progress” had been made on a security guarantee framework.

With their Paris Declaration – Robust Security Guarantees for a Solid and Lasting Peace in Ukraine, European leaders clearly wanted to project some rare Euro-Atlantic unity. The statement suggests, among other things, that the US would support a US-led ceasefire monitoring and verification mechanism and that there will be binding commitments to support Ukraine in the case of a future armed attack by Russia. If approved by Washington this would be a significant step forward, although many details still need to be fleshed out. It is also very unclear how this would land in Russia and –if Russia dismisses the plan– how allies and particularly the US would respond.

So far, markets have remained largely unfazed despite the geopolitical landslides that have been taking place in recent weeks. The S&P 500 hit a fresh record high yesterday and so did the Eurostoxx 600 index. Whilst Treasury yields rose by 1 to 2 basis points, European yields slipped, as investors took their cues from mixed PMI surveys and relatively benign inflation data from the region. The euro also weakened vis-à-vis the dollar, with EURUSD falling below the 1.17 handle.

December PMI surveys for Spain and Italy showed contrasting developments, with Spain surprising positively (composite index up 0.5 points to 55.6) but Italy negatively (composite index down 3.5 points to 50.3). Together with small downward revisions in the French and German PMIs, the overall message is that the European economy likely entered a soft spot towards the end of 2025. This confirms our cautious view on the economy for the next several months.

Meanwhile, inflation data surprised to the downside. French inflation was down one notch in December, where expectations were for a slight rise. The headline print moderated to 0.8% from 0.9% whilst harmonized inflation eased to 0.7% from 0.8%. This print again underscores that France remains in the lower league when it comes to inflation in Europe. The fall in inflation was mainly attributed to a more pronounced decrease in energy prices, particularly petroleum, INSEE noted. Fresh food inflation accelerated, whilst the decline of prices in manufactured goods moderated to -0.4% y/y from -0.6% y/y. Services inflation stayed at 2.2% y/y.

In Germany, the fall in inflation was more pronounced. Harmonized inflation for December dropped no less than 0.6 percentage points to 2% (consensus: 2.2%). Although a fall in food and energy inflation added their bit, a significant fall in core inflation – in contrast to the French numbers – was a key driver for the German inflation rate. The national measure for core inflation dropped 0.3 percentage points. There were notable declines in prices of clothing and recreation. The latter tend to be volatile items and quite sensitive to distortions in seasonal patterns (such as the timing of holidays etc.), so not all of the drop in core inflation may stick as we head into 2026.

Overall, though, the benign inflation data from Germany and France shifted investor’s focus to the possibility that the ECB could still cut rates if both the economy and inflation were to slip further in the months ahead. The ECB doves have been relatively quiet of late, but these kind of numbers are sufficient to keep some speculation alive.

Update (1014ET):

"Donroe Doctrine" to clean up the Western Hemisphere was busy Wednesday morning, with the seizure of the Russian-flagged oil tanker Marinera (formerly Bella 1) in the North Atlantic, followed by U.S. forces seizing a stateless dark-fleet tanker in the Caribbean region.

The seizure of Marinera is the headliner this morning, given that Russian warships and a submarine are nearby, raising the risk that the situation could spiral out of control after Moscow warned the Trump administration in recent days to back off the tanker.

Within the last hour, U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) wrote on X that U.S. forces "apprehended a stateless, sanctioned dark-fleet motor tanker without incident." SOUTHCOM said, "The interdicted vessel, M/T Sophia, was operating in international waters and conducting illicit activities in the Caribbean Sea. The U.S. Coast Guard is escorting M/T Sophia to the U.S. for final disposition."

SOUTHCOM concluded the post by signaling the Donroe Doctrine: "Through Operation Southern Spear, the Department of War is unwavering in its mission to crush illicit activity in the Western Hemisphere. We will defend our Homeland and restore security and strength across the Americas."

In a pre-dawn action this morning, the Department of War, in coordination with the Department of Homeland Security, apprehended a stateless, sanctioned dark fleet motor tanker without incident.

The interdicted vessel, M/T Sophia, was operating in international waters and… pic.twitter.com/JQm9gHprPk

— U.S. Southern Command (@Southcom) January 7, 2026

Welcome to the era of the Donroe Doctrine.

*   *   * 

Update (0920ET):

U.S. European Command (EUCOM) confirmed on X that the Department of Justice and the Department of Homeland Security, in coordination with the Department of Defense, seized the Russian-flagged oil tanker Marinera (formerly Bella 1) for violating U.S. sanctions.

"The vessel was seized in the North Atlantic pursuant to a warrant issued by a U.S. federal court after being tracked by the USCGC Munro," EUCOM said.

The @TheJusticeDept & @DHSgov, in coordination with the @DeptofWar today announced the seizure of
the M/V Bella 1 for violations of U.S. sanctions. The vessel was seized in the North Atlantic pursuant to a warrant issued by a U.S. federal court after being tracked by USCGC Munro. pic.twitter.com/bm5KcCK30X

— U.S. European Command (@US_EUCOM) January 7, 2026

EUCOM continued...

pic.twitter.com/E0hii3A6Zo

— U.S. European Command (@US_EUCOM) January 7, 2026

Read the earlier updates: Russian warships and submarines are nearby.

*   *   * 

Update (0855ET):

NBC News reports that the U.S. Special Forces operation in the North Atlantic to seize a Russian-flagged oil tanker, the Marinera (formerly Bella 1), was successful.

U.S. officials told the outlet that the Marinera "has been secured" following a dramatic, weeks-long chase on the high seas.

The U.S. seized two oil tankers off the coast of Venezuela last month as part of President Trump's gunboat diplomacy. But why would a U.S. Coast Guard cutter and surveillance planes chase an empty, rusted, Russian-flagged tanker across the Atlantic unless there was potentially something far more valuable on board?

*   *   * 

Update (0814ET):

The Russian outlet RT News has posted footage that appears to show U.S. military forces attempting to board the Russian-flagged tanker Marinera early Wednesday morning in the North Atlantic.

?? Military forces, presumably American, are attempting to board Russian-flagged civilian tanker 'Marinera' RIGHT NOW — RT source

RT has obtained first exclusive visual confirmation of the boarding attempt https://t.co/lWf62lN7hH pic.twitter.com/rn9xfLmNxi

— RT (@RT_com) January 7, 2026

Reuters reports that the U.S. is "attempting" to seize the Venezuela-linked oil tanker after a two-week chase involving a U.S. Coast Guard vessel and surveillance aircraft.

From like an hour ago or more, as the Americans got into position to attempt boarding.

A massive swarm of RAF jets were patrolling around the north sea, potentially shadowing the Russian Naval fleet on route to escort it. pic.twitter.com/DxxioNbLw6

— Lee Mitchell (@Lee_Mitchell91) January 7, 2026

More color on the operation from the outlet:

The officials, who were speaking on condition of anonymity, said the operation is being carried out by the Coast Guard and the U.S. military.

They added that Russian military vessels, including a submarine, were in the general vicinity when the operation took place.

Marinera made an abrupt heading change as the US MH-6 Little Bird, the 160th SOAR's smallest helicopter, approached the vessel. 

MARINERA (9230880) just made a sudden southbound turn at 11:26 UTC at 60.9386, -16.37014. Decelerated from 9kn to 8kn speed. pic.twitter.com/dH8BnpF6r5

— TankerTrackers.com, Inc. (@TankerTrackers) January 7, 2026

This is what the "Donroe" doctrine to clean up the Western Hemisphere looks like. However, certainly appears that conflict fears are on the rise ... 

*   *   * 

In what can only be described as straight out of a Cold War techno-thriller, The Hunt for Red October vibes, the U.S. Coast Guard is chasing a rusting oil tanker formerly known as Bella 1, now renamed Marinera, flying the Russian flag about 300 miles south of Iceland as it heads toward the North Sea.

On Tuesday, Russian outlet RT News posted an exclusive video on X showing Marinera being chased by a U.S. Coast Guard cutter in the North Atlantic.

BREAKING WORLD EXCLUSIVE: RT obtains FIRST footage of Russian-flagged civilian Marinera tanker being CHASED by US Coast Guard warship in the North Atlantic https://t.co/sNbqJkm5O5 pic.twitter.com/XtbBML3a6j

— RT (@RT_com) January 6, 2026

The Wall Street Journal then reported overnight that Russia is countering the Trump administration's attempt to seize Marinera by deploying a submarine and other warships to escort the allegedly now-empty tanker.

The chase in the North Atlantic follows last month's incident near Venezuelan waters, when the tanker - then stateless and flying a false flag - was subject to a U.S. judicial seizure order. As the Coast Guard attempted to board, the crew switched the ship's registration to Russia, prompting Moscow to demand that the U.S. halt its pursuit.

Trump's gunboat diplomacy in the Caribbean, along with a broader push for Western Hemisphere defense - what some have called the "Don-roe Doctrine" - has set the tone for the year: U.S. forces intend to control the seas in the Americas, not China and not Russia.

One key question is why Washington is hyper-focused on this particular tanker, given that the global dark fleet numbers more than 1,000 tankers hauling sanctioned crude worldwide. The ship's quick registration in Russia, without inspection or formalities, may only suggest that the tanker, which departed Venezuelan waters, could be carrying other cargo bound for Russia.

Tuesday marks five years since the January 6 unrest of 2021, when self-proclaimed MAGA supporters entered the Capitol.

Now, with Donald Trump back in the White House and entering the second year of his second term in office, a recent poll by NBC News Decision Desk shows signs that his strong support base has started to splinter.

As Statista's Anna Fleck details below, the share of self-identified MAGA (Make America Great Again) supporters ticked down seven percentage points between April and December in 2025, from 57 percent of Republicans to 50 percent.

This loss was mirrored by the increase of seven percentage points among self-identified traditional Republican party members, which rose from 53 percent to 50 percent.

You will find more infographics at Statista

The shift indicates there had been a distancing of some members of the party from Trump within that timeframe, while the subsection maintained party values.

Meanwhile, the share of Republican voters who said they strongly approved of Trump’s actions ticked down.

Among traditional Republicans, strong approval ticked down from 38 to 35 percent, while among MAGA supporters, strong approval dropped to 70 percent from 78 percent - still a strong majority.

Over the eight months between the two survey waves, the Trump administration has had to contend with the resurgence of the Epstein files as well as growing criticism over his handling of the economy and trade, in a country where concerns over the cost of living are high.

As of the December poll, overall approval stood at 42 percent, with overall “strong approval” at 21 percent.

It remains to be seen how the capture of deposed president Nicolas Maduro will affect Trump's ratings.

Reuters reports that among MAGA supporters, the move has so far been largely praised.

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) has confirmed that Abukar Dahir Osman, Somalia’s permanent representative to the United Nations and the current president of the U.N. Security Council, is associated with an Ohio-based home health care company that the federal government previously took action against following a Medicaid fraud conviction.

“I can confirm public speculation that Ambassador Abukar Dahir Osman, Permanent Representative of Somalia to the UN and President of the Security Council, is in fact associated with Progressive Health Care Services, a home health agency in Cincinnati,” HHS Deputy Secretary Jim O’Neill said in a Jan. 5 post on X.

“HHS has previously taken action against Progressive in response to a conviction for Medicaid fraud. More to come.”

O’Neill and HHS did not immediately provide details about the nature of the Medicaid fraud case or specify what enforcement actions were taken against Progressive Health Care Services.

The Epoch Times has contacted Progressive Health Care Services for comment, including details about the referenced Medicaid fraud conviction, any enforcement actions taken, and the company’s current regulatory status. No response was received by publication time.

Osman’s ties to the Ohio company drew widespread attention last week after people on social media circulated records suggesting he held a senior corporate role while simultaneously serving as Somalia’s top diplomat to the United Nations.

Screenshots of Osman’s LinkedIn profile, shared by the Libs of TikTok social media account, list him as having served as “Managing Director” of Progressive Health Care Services from 2014 to May 2019—overlapping with his tenure as Somalia’s permanent representative in New York. Other publicly available records indicate he was also listed as president and chief executive officer of the company.

Libs of TikTok further reported that the firm’s National Provider Identifier appeared on a federal exclusion list under a code associated with Medicare and Medicaid-related crimes. HHS has not publicly confirmed those specific details.

Osman is serving as president of the U.N. Security Council for January 2026, a rotating position held by member states on a monthly basis.

The Epoch Times has reached out to Somalia’s Permanent Mission to the United Nations seeking comment from Osman on the HHS statement and his association with Progressive Health Care Services. No reply was received by publication time.

Context of Broader Fraud Investigations

The disclosure involving the U.N. ambassador comes as federal and state authorities investigate what officials have described as large-scale fraud schemes involving government-funded programs across several states.

In Minnesota, the Feeding Our Future case—now the largest pandemic-related fraud prosecution in U.S. history—has resulted in dozens of convictions. Federal prosecutors allege that organizers falsely claimed to provide meals to children while diverting hundreds of millions of dollars in taxpayer funds.

Additional investigations into Medicaid-funded services, including home health care and autism therapy programs, are ongoing. Federal officials have said the total fraud exposure across just a subset of Minnesota’s Medicaid programs could exceed $9 billion.

President Donald Trump and senior administration officials have recently taken enforcement action against Minnesota, including freezing federal child care funds after alleged fraudulent day care schemes were uncovered.

FBI Director Kash Patel recently revealed that federal officials have indicted dozens of people in an alleged $250 million scheme in Minnesota that allegedly included crimes such as wire fraud, money laundering, and conspiracy.

The Small Business Administration recently suspended nearly 6,900 Minnesota borrowers from future federal loan programs after reviewing pandemic-era Paycheck Protection Program and Economic Injury Disaster Loan approvals. SBA Administrator Kelly Loeffler said the borrowers had received roughly $400 million in loans now under investigation.

Amid mounting scrutiny, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, a Democrat, announced on Jan. 5 that he would not seek reelection, saying he wanted to focus on combating fraud instead of campaigning.

If the last years have shown us anything, it’s that a lot can change, fast.

While many events cannot be foreseen, can others?

Ipsos asked more than 23,600 people across 30 countries about their predictions for the coming year, with a survey on topics ranging from artificial intelligence to the climate and the World Cup.

This data is based on one survey alone and although it does not focus on additional knowledge of experts and analysts, it does capture a snapshot of sentiments and standpoints in different countries and regions.

As Statista's Anna Fleck shows in the following chart, many people around the globe seem to be in agreement that global temperatures will rise in 2026. Around eight in ten respondents (78 percent) said that next year, we can expect the world to warm further still. This belief was most widespread in Indonesia (91 percent), Singapore (90 percent), South Korea (86 percent) and Malaysia (85 percent). In a similar vein, nearly seven in ten (69 percent) of respondents said they expect to see more extreme weather events in the country that they live in than last year. Meanwhile, only 48 percent of respondents felt that their government will introduce more demanding targets to reduce emissions. Respondents in Indonesia were the most optimistic about this prospect (80 percent).

You will find more infographics at Statista

Views on whether the conflict currently raging in Ukraine will come to an end in 2026 were pessimistic.

Only around three in ten people (29 percent) thought it would be the case in Ukraine, although this marks a three percentage point increase on predictions from the same time one year ago.

In terms of the online world, two thirds of respondents (67 percent) said that they expect AI will replace jobs in their country in 2026, up three percentage points from last year.

At the same time, 43 percent agreed that AI will lead to many new jobs being created in their country.

Other job worries persist, with almost half of the total respondents predicting that their country will be in recession in 2026, with Turkey (68 percent), Thailand (66 percent) and Romania (63 percent) reporting the highest shares of people who held this opinion.

Nearly two in five worldwide (38 percent) think major stock markets around the world will crash.

While Trump has repeatedly asserted that he would like a Nobel Peace Prize, the vast majority thinks this is unlikely to happen. A total of 21 percent of respondents said they think this is likely, compared to 64 percent who said they thought it was not. India had the highest share of respondents who said they thought it would happen, at 51 percent. In the United States, 25 percent said the same.

One month after ADP reported a dismal -29K private payrolls print for November, tied for the worst month since March 2023, and just in time to validate the Fed's latest rate cut, moments ago ADP reported that in December, the US added 41K payrolls, which while a solid jump from last month's -29K, missed consensus estimates of a +50K print. 

The breakdown showed continued weakness in manufacturing jobs, which shrank by 3K in December, offset by a 44K increase in Service jobs, despite another notable drop in Information (-12K) and Professional/Business services (-29K) jobs. Also notable is that all the weakness was in the Western region (read California) where 61K jobs were lost, while a breakdown of establishments by size saw solid hiring by small and medium companies, offset by a modest 2K increase amid Large companies.

“Small establishments recovered from November job losses with positive end-of-year hiring, even as large employers pulled back,” said ADP chief economist Nela Richardson.

There was more good news for the Trump admin which appears to have halted the sharp deterioration in the labor market: year-over-year pay for job-stayers rose 4.4% in December, unchanged from November while jobchangers saw their pay growth accelerate to 6.6% from 6.3%.