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Sun, 21 Dec 2025 15:30:00 +0000 The Christmas Gift That Climate Grinches Can't Abide
The Christmas Gift That Climate Grinches Can't Abide
The Christmas Gift That Climate Grinches Can't Abide
Authored by Vijay Jayaraj via American Greatness,
The quietude of looking out the kitchen window on a December morning at a meadow dusted in snow is magical. A deer pauses at the edge of the wood, breath steaming in the cold air, grazing on whatever bits of green poke through the snow. It is a scene replicated on greeting cards and stamped on cookie tins.
Part of the magic behind that tableau—from the roast in the oven to the cranberries on a plate, from the pine and hardwoods standing tall outside to the browsing fauna—is a phenomenon the establishment media ignore: CO2-driven, NASA-acknowledged greening of Earth.
Satellite data from the last four decades confirm a significant increase in vegetation over as much as half the globe. During this period, atmospheric CO2 increased from about 350 parts per million (ppm) to more than 400 ppm, mostly from the burning of fossil fuels.
It is a gift arriving right on cue to meet a continuous increase in population and demand for food. This basic sustenance allows for all other human endeavors—developments in artificial intelligence, medicine, and more. It is difficult to write computer code on an empty stomach.
Behind this gift of plenty is a process fundamental to all life, starting with plants: Photosynthesis is a mechanism by which plants use CO2, water, and sunlight to make sugars for food. When atmospheric CO2 rises—whether from the emissions of human activity or any other source—plants grow faster. A side benefit is that they use water more efficiently, making them more resilient to arid conditions and extending their geographic range.
The degree to which plants respond to more CO2 varies, but it is always positive. An increase in CO2 to 800 parts per million (ppm) or so—more than double the current atmospheric concentration—increases yields by 10% to 100%.
In greenhouse farming, carbon dioxide levels are elevated to 1,000 ppm or so to increase the yields of tomatoes and cucumbers by 20% to 40%. Plants, such as corn, sugarcane, and millets, also benefit from higher atmospheric CO2, whose positive effect on them is even more evident in the presence of drought.
For many, a cold Christmas morning is warmed by coffee, especially festive offerings like peppermint mocha and gingerbread latte. Well, the good news is that even coffee plants are boosted by the rise of CO2. Studies in Latin America found that elevated carbon dioxide boosted coffee plant photosynthesis and increased yields by 12% to 14%.
People forget that the Little Ice Age—lasting from about 1300 to 1850—brought crop failures and famine to large sections of Europe and Asia. Rivers froze, and growing seasons shrank. Many communities struggled during periods of cold-induced scarcity.
The 20th century delivered the opposite: the longer growing seasons of a modestly warmer climate paired with higher levels of CO2. This is hardly the making of a catastrophe that some would have us believe. In fact, a 2025 analysis projected changes in global average yields across all crops to be neutral or positive up to 5 degrees Celsius of warming into the future.
Only the Climate Grinches would oppose such a bounty of greening from modern warmth and CO2 concentrations. These are the characters who have dominated headlines in popular media and policy roundtables in Brussels and Washington. They steal not only the joy of experiencing this natural abundance by spreading false fears but also the prosperity and sovereignty of nations.
Climate Grinches look at a greening planet and see disaster. When NASA announces that Earth has added vegetation equivalent to two American continents, they warn that this cannot last, that benefits are temporary, and that doom still awaits. When farmers report bumper harvests enabled by longer growing seasons and CO2 fertilization, the Climate Grinches insist that gains are outweighed by unspecified future horrors.
So, this Christmas season, when you gather with your family, look at the spread before you with new eyes. Reject the guilt that climate orthodoxy seeks to place on our shoulders.
Modern lifestyles are not destroying the planet. We are basking in a vibrant ecosystem that supports more greenery, more people, and more human potential than at any other time in history.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 12/21/2025 - 10:30 Close
Sun, 21 Dec 2025 14:55:00 +0000 'A Lie And Propaganda': Gabbard Fact-Checks Reuters' Russia Scaremongering In Real Time
'A Lie And Propaganda': Gabbard Fact-Checks Reuters' Russia Scaremongering In Real Time
On Saturday afternoon, Reuters posted an anonymously-sourced story pushing the idea that Russia is bent on reconstituting the S
Read more.....
'A Lie And Propaganda': Gabbard Fact-Checks Reuters' Russia Scaremongering In Real Time
On Saturday afternoon, Reuters posted an anonymously-sourced story pushing the idea that Russia is bent on reconstituting the Soviet Union . Before the metaphorical ink had dried, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard pounced , condemning the story as "a lie and propaganda" on behalf of "warmongers" seeking to derail President Trump's drive to end the long and bloody Ukraine war.
From selling the Iraq invasion to achieving a news and social media lockdown on Hunter Biden's laptop, the Deep State has long used major media outlets like Reuters , the New York Times and Washington Post to inject their agenda-advancing narratives into America's town square. Displaying the typical modus operandi with its Saturday night story , Reuters vaguely attributed the purported US intelligence conclusions about Russia to "six sources familiar with US intelligence."
Tulsi Gabbard at her January Senate confirmation hearing (Kevin Dietsch/ Getty Images via NPR )
According to those sources, "US intelligence reports" are warning that, despite Putin's outwardly earnest claims that he wants to end the Ukraine war -- claims credited by Trump -- Russia not only wants to conquer all of Ukraine but also other European territories that were part of the Soviet Union. "The reports present a starkly different picture from that painted by...Trump and his Ukraine peace negotiators," wrote Reuters journalists Jonathan Landay, Erin Banco and John Irish. Shortly after Banco promoted the story on X, Gabbard lashed out :
"No, this is a lie and propaganda Reuters is willingly pushing on behalf of warmongers who want to undermine President Trump’s tireless efforts to end this bloody war that has resulted in more than a million casualties on both sides. Dangerously, you are promoting this false narrative to block President Trump’s peace effort, and fomenting hysteria and fear among the people to get them to support the escalation of war, which is what NATO and the EU really want in order to pull the United States military directly into war with Russia.
The truth is the US intelligence community has briefed policymakers, including the Democrat HPSCI member quoted by Reuters, that US Intelligence assesses that Russia seeks to avoid a larger war with NATO . It also assesses that, as the last few years have shown, Russia’s battlefield performance indicates it does not currently have the capability to conquer and occupy all of Ukraine, let alone Europe."
The "Democratic HPSCI member" (House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence) is Illinois Rep. Mike Quigley, who told Reuters that intelligence has "always" said "Putin wants more ...The Europeans are convinced of it. The Poles are absolutely convinced of it. The Baltics think they're first.”
Gabbard also used her appearance at this weekend's Turning Point USA national conference to decry the "weaponization" of intelligence to slow-walk the West into World War III:
The Reuters story is just the latest element of a broader campaign, on both sides of the Atlantic , to promote the implausible idea that Russia -- which has taken nearly three years of grinding, yard-by-yard combat to control just 20% of Ukraine -- has designs to plunge forward and conquer NATO countries next. In November, for example, Germany claimed Russia is positioning itself for war with NATO by 2029, or maybe in 2028. Reuters led that reporting too. On Wednesday, Putin delivered his own blistering condemnation of the hype , going so far as to call EU officials promoting that narrative "European swine," adding:
"I have repeatedly stated: this is a lie, nonsense, pure nonsense about some imaginary Russian threat to European countries . But this is being done quite deliberately."
The Gabbard-Reuters controversy comes just days after Trump told reporters that "we're closer than we have been" to bringing peace to Ukraine. Observers voiced agreement with Gabbard that the timing of the Reuters story and similar claims from European officials is no coincidence:
"Notice the pattern Tulsi is calling out," wrote the X geopolitical account The Islander . "Every time negotiations inch ahead, fear narratives suddenly flood the zone . That’s not coincidence, it’s escalation management. The question isn’t whether Russia wants war; it doesn't, it’s who needs the public to believe it’s inevitable."
Elon Musk, who has long tangled with Ukraine's Zelensky government -- from mocking Zelensky's laughable claim that every dollar of US aid to his country is accounted for, to blasting Ukraine for suspending elections -- also endorsed Gabbard's rebuke of Reuters, joining others who lampooned the Deep State spectacle...
Tyler Durden
Sun, 12/21/2025 - 09:55 Close
Sun, 21 Dec 2025 14:20:00 +0000 Fed's Soft Landing Talk Meets Hard Data
Fed's Soft Landing Talk Meets Hard Data
Fed's Soft Landing Talk Meets Hard Data
Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,
The Fed’s soft landing narrative is a key theme in financial media, particularly on Wall Street, which expects a resurgence in economic activity in 2026 to justify increasing forward earnings expectations.
As shown, Wall Street currently expects the bottom 493 stocks to contribute more to earnings in 2026 than they have in the past 3 years. This is notable in that, over the past three years, the average growth rate for the bottom 493 stocks was less than 3%. Yet over the next 2 years, that earnings growth is expected to average above 11%.
Furthermore, the outlook is even more exuberant for the most economically sensitive stocks. Small and mid-cap companies struggled to produce earnings growth during the previous three years of robust economic growth, driven by monetary and fiscal stimulus. However, next year, even if the Fed’s soft landing narrative is valid, they are expected to see a surge in earnings growth rates of nearly 60%.
Notably, all this is occurring at a time when the entire economy’s profit margins have peaked and may potentially be turning lower.
It should come as no surprise that there is a high correlation between economic growth and earnings, given that in a demand-driven economy, consumption is what generates revenues, and revenues ultimately develop earnings.
“A better way to visualize this data is to look at the correlation between the annual change in earnings growth and inflation-adjusted GDP. There are periods when earnings deviate from underlying economic activity. However, those periods are due to pre- or post-recession earnings fluctuations. Currently, economic and earnings growth are very close to the long-term correlation.”
The problem currently facing the Fed’s soft landing narrative is that it hopes the economy can slow without a recession, allowing inflation to return to its target. For now, investors have held the markets higher, hoping the Fed’s soft landing narrative comes to fruition, which would lead to a surge in economic activity. However, the latest employment, retail sales, and inflation trends suggest a potentially worse outcome, characterized by weakening demand and shaky consumer strength.
Those factors weaken the case for the Fed’s hopes of a soft landing and suggest an increase in market fragility.
Falling Inflation Tells a Demand Story
Let’s start with inflation. If economic growth were on the cusp of resurgence, expectations for inflation would be rising. However, as shown, those expectations never rose with “printed inflation,” because it was the “transitory effect” of massive monetary stimulus. The bond market’s view was that inflation would revert to its normalized levels as that monetary excess left the system, which has been the case. This is particularly notable, as inflation expectations have always been more accurate than the “inflation” bears we discussed yesterday .
In the Fed’s narrative of a soft landing, the trend in inflation expectations is crucial. Here is an essential point:
“The Federal Reserve WANTS inflation.”
Here is another critical point: So do you .
Without inflation, there can not be economic growth, increasing wages, and an improving standard of living. In other words, prices must always rise over time, which is why the Fed targets a 2% inflation rate, thereby supporting 2% economic growth. What we don’t want is “disinflation” or “deflation,” which would occur in conjunction with a recession, leading to job losses, falling wages, and reduced prosperity overall. As shown in the chart below, there is a high correlation between inflation, economic growth, and interest rates over time.
When inflation eases because demand weakens, the economy slows, producers lower prices to clear unsold goods, and employers become more restrictive in hiring and wage increases. Services that rely on discretionary spending lose pricing power, and banks become more stringent in their lending practices. These are not signs of a healthy expansion, but rather reflect a decline in spending power among households.
The Fed’s soft landing narrative is predicated on the hope that it can achieve its 2% inflation target without causing a more widespread slowdown. Historically, the Fed has failed in such attempts, as shown by the relationship between Fed rate-cutting cycles and economic and financial consequences.
As an investor, you need to distinguish between inflation caused by temporary supply/demand shocks, as we saw following the Pandemic, and inflation caused by organic economic activity. Supply/demand imbalances, such as higher input costs or a lack of supply caused by a geopolitical shock, can create a spike in inflation, which resolves itself when the shock is over. However, inflation caused by organic demand provides insight into the strength or weakness of the economy. Currently, we are focused on potential demand erosion as consumers cut back, employment weakens, and wages decline.
The retail sector provides early signals of demand weakness. Housing-related spending, auto sales, and discretionary purchases show stress, and many consumers face higher borrowing costs and lower savings. As shown, PCE, which accounts for nearly 70% of the GDP calculation, slowing inflation rates, and weak retail sales growth, all suggest that demand destruction is present in the economy. Such a development may further weigh on the Fed’s narrative of a soft landing.
As noted, the Fed’s soft landing narrative requires demand to slow moderately while avoiding recession. However, falling inflation driven by weakening demand and sluggish employment growth suggests a more profound weakness.
Retail Sales Growth Is Not What It Appears
Headline retail sales reports often show month-over-month increases, which reporters interpret as evidence of resilient consumer strength. However, a look at the data tells a different story. For example, since 2022, real retail sales growth has effectively not grown. In fact, previous periods of flat retail sales growth were pre-recessionary warnings.
Secondly, the annual rate of change in real retail sales is at levels that have typically preceded weaker economic environments and recessions.
Notably, retail sales figures are subject to seasonal adjustments, which correct for typical spending patterns. During the holiday and back-to-school seasons, spending increases and the “adjustments” attempt to remove these effects. However, if the adjustment process overestimates normal seasonal strength, the adjusted result will appear firmer than it actually is. Secondly, another distortion comes from changes in price levels. If prices fall because demand weakens, nominal sales may rise while real volumes fall. Consumers buy less but pay lower prices. Nominal retail sales can mislead when viewed without context.
This is what we are currently seeing in the economy. As consumers pull back, businesses face the prospect of weaker revenue. That leads to slower hiring, lower investment, and falling confidence.
This matters for the Fed’s view of a soft landing. If consumer demand remains weak, the economy may slow more than expected, which increases the risk of recession. A “soft landing” requires growth to slow without tipping over, but current economic data points suggest a risk to that growth story.
The Market Risk If The Fed Is Wrong
If the Fed’s soft landing narrative proves incorrect, the downside risk to investors increases significantly. The soft landing narrative has been factored into market prices, earnings expectations, and economic projections. Any deviation exposes valuations and portfolios to sharp repricing. With valuations already very elevated, the risk of a repricing event is not insignificant.
Wall Street’s forward expectations hinge on a growth rebound in 2026. Those projections assume that demand will return and margins will remain stable. However, there is no guarantee that either of those assumptions are accurate. If margins have already peaked, inflation declines as demand erodes, and employment falls, negative earnings revisions could be substantial. The year-over-year change in real retail sales, as shown in the chart, has hovered near recessionary warning levels. With consumers already strained by high debt service costs, weak wage growth, and declining savings, discretionary spending is under pressure, which directly affects earnings across cyclical sectors.
If demand weakens further, companies will face lower revenue and tighter margins. The margin compression will initially impact earnings, particularly for smaller firms with limited pricing power. A repricing of earnings expectations will follow, dragging valuations with it.
The Fed’s historical track record of avoiding recession during tightening and easing cycles is poor. Most rate-cutting cycles have been in response to financial or economic stress, not smooth slowdowns. If the Fed cuts rates next year, it likely won’t be in response to a soft landing. That shift in narrative would catch most investors leaning the wrong way.
Positioning for a soft landing assumes the Fed can control inflation without breaking demand. The data say otherwise. The risk, as always, is that the market wakes up to this reality too late. Therefore, investors should consider preparing for such a possibility in advance.
If the Fed’s soft landing narrative fails, investors will face a different environment than the one markets currently price. The assumptions behind strong equity valuations, tight credit spreads, and risk-on positioning will crack. If it does, that means you will need to act based on risk, not rhetoric. Here are some actions to consider.
1. Reduce Exposure to Overvalued Growth Assets : Tech and growth stocks led the rally on rate cut hopes and soft landing optimism. If earnings disappoint and rates stay higher, these valuations come under pressure.
Trim overweight positions in mega-cap tech.
Avoid speculative names with no earnings.
Focus on companies with strong cash flow and pricing power.
2. Increase Cash and Short-Term Treasuries : If growth slows and volatility returns, capital preservation matters. Cash gives you optionality. Short-term Treasuries offer yield without duration risk.
Rebalance toward 3-month to 1-year Treasury bills.
Hold cash equivalents yielding over 4.5 percent.
Avoid reaching for yield in low-quality credit.
3. Tilt Toward Defensive Sectors : Slower growth hits cyclicals and high beta sectors first. Defensive sectors hold up better in downturns.
Favor healthcare, consumer staples, and utilities.
Limit exposure to discretionary, financial, and industrial sectors.
Screen for dividend sustainability and balance sheet strength.
4. Prepare for Credit Stress : If recession risk rises, corporate credit spreads will widen. Junk bonds will suffer. Bank lending tightens further.
Exit high-yield bonds and floating-rate loans.
Review credit exposure in bond funds.
Consider higher-quality fixed income with lower default risk.
5. Be Patient and Opportunistic : If markets break, forced selling creates dislocations. You want dry powder ready.
Hold 10–20 percent in cash or equivalents.
Build watchlists of high-quality names at lower valuations.
Add in stages as prices adjust, not all at once.
You don’t need to predict a recession. Instead, prepare for the potential risk if the Fed’s hopes for a soft landing fade. You can always increase risk more easily than recovering from losses. Remaining disciplined, protecting capital, and looking for opportunities is always the best course of action.
Trade accordingly.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 12/21/2025 - 09:20 Close
Sun, 21 Dec 2025 13:45:00 +0000 Track Seized Oil Tanker: Skipper Approaches Galveston Offshore Lightering Area
Track Seized Oil Tanker: Skipper Approaches Galveston Offshore Lightering Area
President Trump's gunboat diplomacy against Venezuela's autocratic leader, Nicolás Maduro, has moved full steam ahead. U.S. forces have seized two sanct
Read more.....
Track Seized Oil Tanker: Skipper Approaches Galveston Offshore Lightering Area
President Trump's gunboat diplomacy against Venezuela's autocratic leader, Nicolás Maduro, has moved full steam ahead. U.S. forces have seized two sanctioned "dark fleet" oil tankers, with the latest interception carried out during an early Saturday morning operation by the U.S. Coast Guard off the coast of Venezuela.
The first seizure occurred earlier this month, involving the VLCC Skipper , and sent shockwaves through the Caribbean region. At the time, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Skipper was en route to a U.S. port and that the United States intended to seize the oil.
However, with the second tanker now seized and its name yet to be released, Skipper had faded from the news cycle until now.
Research firm TankerTrackers provided an update on Saturday evening, indicating Skipper's location is about 1 day from Galveston, Texas.
"An update on SKIPPER (9304667): We are tracking her movements by satellite imagery (just to confirm the AIS data) and can see that she is about a day away from reaching GOLA (Galveston Offshore Lightering Area) where she will have to transfer her 1.85 million barrels cargo onto three smaller tankers in order to feed oil refineries in ports such as Houston," TankerTrackers wrote on X.
GOLA is a designated offshore zone in the Gulf of America, located several miles off the coast of Galveston, Texas, where large crude oil tankers, such as the Skipper, conduct ship-to-ship oil transfers known as lightering.
Given Leavitt's comments about the U.S. seizing Skipper's crude, we suspect the ship-to-ship oil transfer will take place at GOLA. In fact, when the tanker was just north of Saint Lucia in the eastern Caribbean Sea, we provided readers with a list of possible port calls in the Gulf of America.
We suspect yesterday's seizure of the sanctioned tanker will soon follow a similar path.
Trump's gunboat diplomacy is only ramping up. There will be more dark fleet oil tankers commandeered by U.S. forces, whose foreign policy objective is to accelerate regime instability in Caracas and materially weaken Cuba.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 12/21/2025 - 08:45 Close
Sun, 21 Dec 2025 13:10:00 +0000 Britain's Ruling Class Loves To Cosplay As A Titan
Britain's Ruling Class Loves To Cosplay As A Titan
Britain's Ruling Class Loves To Cosplay As A Titan
Authored by Gerry Nolan via The Ron Paul Institute
From the podium, it’s Churchillian thunder : prepare for war, deter Russia, stand tall, lead the free world. Back in the engine room, it’s Whitehall with a calculator, sweating through its suit because the numbers simply don’t work. The Financial Times reports Starmer has delayed the Defence Investment Plan over "affordability," kicking it into 2026, because the military’s wish list collided with the Treasury’s reality . Translation: the rhetoric is premium, the balance sheet is bargain-bin .
And then, because the universe has a sense of irony sharp enough to cut steel, enter Ajax; the £6-plus billion armored vehicle program that has become the British state’s spirit animal. Trials paused again. Fresh safety concerns. Soldiers injured. Crews sickened by vibration and noise. Endless reviews. Endless "lessons learned." Endless press lines insisting this is all somehow progress.
If you want to understand modern Britain, don’t read strategy documents. Watch a procurement program that cannot stop hurting the people it is meant to protect .
Ajax was meant to be the backbone of Britain’s future armored forces, a next-generation reconnaissance and strike platform designed to replace ageing vehicles and restore credibility to the British Army’s maneuver capability. Instead, it has become a case study in institutional failure: spiraling costs, years of delay, fundamental design flaws, and a safety record so poor it forced repeated trial suspensions. Soldiers were not merely inconvenienced; they were physically harmed in testing, suffering hearing damage, sickness, and long-term health concerns.
This is not a marginal technical glitch. It is the predictable outcome of a system where industrial capacity has been hollowed out, accountability diffused, and procurement reduced to a paper exercise optimized for contracts, not combat. Ajax does not fail because Britain lacks engineers or soldiers. It fails because Britain no longer possesses a state machinery capable of translating ambition into functioning hardware at scale.
This is the farce at the heart of the Atlantic security sermon .
Britain speaks about Russia the way a fading aristocrat sneers at a rising industrial superpower… condescending, dismissive, utterly uncurious . For years we’ve heard the same insult recycled like a nervous tic: Russia is a "gas station," a crude petro-state propped up by fumes and nostalgia. Yet here we are.
Russia the “gas station,” under the most comprehensive sanctions regime in modern history, has been forced—by Western institutions themselves—into an inconvenient admission: Russia now ranks as the fourth-largest economy in the world by purchasing-power parity.
So let’s pause and ask the question Britain’s elites refuse to face. If Russia is a glorified gas station, what exactly does that make Britain? A country that cannot publish a defence investment plan on time. A state that cannot field a functioning armoured vehicle without injuring its own troops. An economy that cannot sustain rearmament in spite of private finance gimmicks and accounting contortions. A political class that cannot reconcile its war talk with its industrial capacity.
If Russia is a gas station, Britain increasingly resembles a heritage museum complete with a gift shop, living off past glories while subcontracting its future .
Now let’s move to where the illusion truly collapses, production.
Wars are not won by hysterical speeches, theatrical bravado, summits, or moral pronouncements. They are won by output — steel, shells, access to critical minerals, drones, logistics, and the brutal arithmetic of throughput. On this front, the West has been dragged, kicking and screaming, into recognition of a reality it tried to meme out of existence.
Russia's military-industrial base bureaucratically compressed, hardened, and scaled under pressure —now outpaces NATO’s collective ammunition production by a multiple . Western officials themselves have been forced to admit the gap, even as they scramble to promise future catch-up schedules that read more like aspiration than viable plan.
In sum, while Russia produces, Britain reviews glorified mission statements. And while Russia iterates, Britain delays indefinitely out of impotence. Russia fields game changing adaptations learned from battlefield within months. While Britain commissions another inquiry.
And this is where the mockery turns into indictment.
Because Britain is not merely weak. It is performatively Russophobic , a leading amplifier of a psychological contagion that has swept Western Europe. A political culture that replaced diplomacy with insult, respect with caricature, and strategic realism with adolescent moral posturing.
For decades, Russians asked for nothing exotic. Security guarantees. Recognition of reasonable red lines. A place in a shared European security architecture. Basic respect and dignity after the Cold War. They were met instead with NATO expansion, broken promises, regime-change evangelism, and the casual humiliation of a great civilization reduced to punchlines for Western domestic politics.
And now, after years of stoking this hysteria, inflaming this anger, and dismissing Russian concerns as paranoia, Britain offers the world a confession written in delays, budget shortfalls, and broken machinery.
For all the talk of deterrence, what they’re left with is cold reality, exposure. A state that talks war while failing at procurement is not projecting strength. It is advertising vulnerability at scale . A leadership class that cannot fund its own defence while demanding continental confrontation is not leading, but gambling with other people’s lives.
For a country in this position to posture as a peer adversary to Russia is not serious strategy. It is suicide pact dressed up as virtue. At this point, honesty would demand something radical in London: humility and sober realism.
A state in Britain’s position should not be lecturing the world, moralizing from the sidelines , or inflating its own strategic importance. It should be urgently repairing what it helped to destroy, namely trust, diplomacy, and the basic architecture of European security. It should be suing for peace, not performing toughness it cannot afford.
Because history is unforgiving to former empires that mistake memory for power.
Russia did not arrive at this moment through fantasy. It arrived through necessity, through sanctions, pressure, exclusion, and the steady realisation that the West no longer spoke the language of compromise, only command. Britain, by contrast, arrived here through illusion: convinced it was still a titan while outsourcing its industry, hollowing out its capacity, and replacing strategy with theatre.
This is the real danger now, not Russian strength, but Western self-deception .
A political class that cannot build, cannot fund, and cannot field its own defence has no business escalating confrontation with a civilization that can. When rhetoric races far ahead of reality, history does not intervene gently. It intervenes brutally. Britain is not preparing for a conflict with Russia. It is preparing for a reckoning with the reality of its own weakness.
And reality, unlike Whitehall briefings, legacy slogans, or moral posturing, does not negotiate.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 12/21/2025 - 08:10 Close
Sun, 21 Dec 2025 12:35:00 +0000 DNA Evidence Proves "First Black Briton" Was Actually A White Girl
DNA Evidence Proves "First Black Briton" Was Actually A White Girl
In 2021 the establishment media was electrified by a discovery involving the ancient remains of a woman found over a century ago near a village in East Sussex in Bri
Read more.....
DNA Evidence Proves "First Black Briton" Was Actually A White Girl
In 2021 the establishment media was electrified by a discovery involving the ancient remains of a woman found over a century ago near a village in East Sussex in Britain. The reason leftist journalists were so hyped? A supposedly comprehensive study by "experts" in facial reconstruction had determined that the nearly 2000 year old skeleton belonged to a Sub-Saharan African person.
The remains became known as the "Beachy Head Woman" and images of her reconstructed black face circulating internationally. This was proof, somehow, that progressives had always been right to support third world immigration.
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The new data arrived conveniently in time to support a far-left campaign to defend the ideas of multiculturalism. Part of this narrative asserts that Caucasian regions of the world have never actually been Caucasian and that western culture doesn't really exist. In fact, white Europeans have no claim to any lands anywhere, they have no home, and African/Asian migrants have "always" freely traveled throughout Europe.
The political left was enthralled, taking to social media and reposting the discovery millions of times over to "own the fascists". The BBC even paid to have a plaque constructed on the site where the bones were discovered proudly proclaiming that this is where the first Briton of "African origin" had been found.
School lessons were immediately developed in the UK , teaching students about the multicultural history of Britain. This was scientific confirmation to back up the avalanche of European entertainment content depicting Sub-Saharan Africans as integral to the history of the continent, roaming the lands as tribesman or enjoying the finery of royal court.
Leftists argue that their version of history justifies the expansion of open mass immigration, because "things have always been this way" and white people today who want to protect their histories and cultures from erasure are merely ignorant of the past.
The problem is, Beachy Head Woman is not African or black. Recently confirmed DNA evidence shows she was white with blonde hair and blue eyes. She was not a migrant, but born in ancient Britain.
The narrative began to break down in 2023 when genetic studies indicated she might have come from Cyprus (a part of the Roman Empire) and was not of African origin. More advanced DNA analysis, released this week, destroyed the claims of migration and also embarrassed the "experts" involved in the facial reconstruction of the skull.
The new study, led by researchers at London’s Natural History Museum, working in collaboration with University College London, used advanced ancient DNA sequencing that was not available a decade ago. By extracting a much larger quantity of high-quality DNA, they were able to place her ancestry within a broader Roman-era genetic framework.
The results show that her DNA is most similar to that of individuals from rural southern Britain during the Roman period and to modern populations from England. There are no traces of recent sub-Saharan African or Mediterranean ancestry. Isotope analysis of her teeth and bones indicates that her early years were spent on the south coast of Britain, and her mobility patterns were similar to those of other local individuals from the same period.
It's a perfect example of the growing problem of ideology mixing with science and poisoning the well of human knowledge. The rules of scientific investigation require an objective mindset, letting the evidence show whatever the evidence shows. However, with the invasion of woke cultism into every facet of academia, the goal of science is now to fulfill the demands of the multicultural narrative.
Luckily, the takeover of academia is not total and the truth still slips through the cracks on occasion.
Woke "science" approaches investigation by developing a desired conclusion first, and then manipulating the evidence to support that conclusion. In other words, science is nothing more than another propaganda tool. This is why wokeness can no longer be allowed to spread into western academics or into STEM fields; it's not just destructive to political discourse and social stability, it is also a cancer eating away at the pillars of human knowledge.
If these people are allowed to continue their conquest of science, modern human civilization will crumble.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 12/21/2025 - 07:35 Close
Sun, 21 Dec 2025 12:00:00 +0000 Swiss Authorities Silent As EU Sanctions One Of World's Most Respected Military Analysts
Swiss Authorities Silent As EU Sanctions One Of World's Most Respected Military Analysts
Swiss Authorities Silent As EU Sanctions One Of World's Most Respected Military Analysts
Authored by Peter Hanseler via ForumGeopolitica.com,
When German journalists Röper and Lipp were sanctioned, no one in Switzerland reacted—now one of the world's most respected military analysts is being sanctioned—a Swiss citizen. Weltwoche is waking up, Switzerland is fast asleep.
Introduction
Terrorizing journalists with sanctions in order to suppress the truth is nothing new for the EU.
On May 20, 2025, the EU sanctioned two German journalists for the first time—Alina Lipp and Thomas Röper. At the time, we reported in detail on this case, “EU sanctions German journalists ,” and also analyzed the case from a legal perspective.
The result was clear: punishment without crime or trial, disenfranchisement and expropriation without a hearing.
The EU is dangerously close to the Nazi regime of 1936, when Thomas Mann was expatriated.
Following the same pattern, action is now being taken against a Swiss citizen for the first time.
Jacques Baud - You Can't Be More Objective Than He Is
Jacques Baud is one of the most objective and respected military analysts around. He is highly regarded and respected not only throughout Europe, but also in the US.
His work is not limited to analysis on the most prestigious YouTube platforms; he has also written numerous excellent books. His style is unique in that he does not concern himself with politics, but only with the analysis of warfare, in a calm and dispassionate manner. His analyses have never been anti-Ukrainian or pro-Russian, but objective.
He has long seen a NATO defeat on the horizon, not based on his wishes, but on the facts on the long front and the war strategy and tactics of the various parties.
This did not fit in at all with the Russophobic war cries of the EU, which still dreams of ultimate victory today, just like Adolf Hitler did in the spring of 1945.
The latest example comes from Friedrich Merz, whose lucidity must now seriously be called into question. To justify the theft of Russian assets, he said the following before the German Bundestag on December 15, 2025:
“To be very clear and very explicit here: we are not doing this to prolong the war. On the contrary, we are doing this to end this war as quickly as possible, ladies and gentlemen. Because this sends a clear signal to Moscow that continuing this war is pointless for Moscow.”
Friedrich Merz, December 15, 2025
Jacques Baud's crime was therefore that his analyses were correct - no more and no less.
Die Weltwoche Stands up— Finally
When Alina Lipp and Thomas Röper were sanctioned, Weltwoche contented itself with an indifferent, lukewarm article and did not stand up for its colleagues – we were shocked.
It seems that the opportunistic Mr. Köppel has felt the heat from Ms. Kaja Kallas a little too closely for his liking: Köppel is finally standing up, because he could be next, and, as Martin Niemöller said, when it's your turn, you're wide awake.
"First they came for the Communists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Communist
Then they came for the Socialists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Socialist
Then they came for the trade unionists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a trade unionist
Then they came for the Jews
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Jew
Then they came for me
And there was no one left
To speak out for me
Holocaust Memorial Day Trust
Now Weltwoche is also reflecting on the lack of a fair hearing and politically motivated persecution, not in as much detail as in our article of May 25, 2025 , but still.
"Opportunism is costing a 70-year-old military analyst his quality of life"
Weltwoche has published half a dozen articles on Jacque Baud, and Köppel is playing the Joan of Arc of journalists, styling himself in his own way as the Winkelried of his guild. It's rather late in the day. Had Köppel reacted with the same force in May, the men and women in Brussels would probably have thought twice about sanctioning a Swiss citizen. Opportunism is costing a 70-year-old military analyst his quality of life.
Official Switzerland Remains Silent
It is nothing new that my home country no longer has any backbone when it comes to Brussels. Weltwoche writes:
“In Bern, they would prefer to have nothing to do with it and are passing the buck like a hot potato.”
Weltwoche, December 18, 2025
This is obviously worrying, but the Swiss government is behaving in exactly the same way as Köppel did in May this year when German colleagues were sanctioned. They wanted nothing to do with the whole affair.
The Next Litmus Test for Switzerland Is Coming Soon
The EU's plundering of the Russian Federation's frozen funds will soon be complete. Incidentally, this has nothing to do with war, but rather with the sheer financial and political survival of the EU and its criminal leaders, because without the stolen money, the EU is bankrupt.
Despite the clarity that the EU is a criminal organization, Switzerland is negotiating a comprehensive package of new agreements with the EU , including the integration of dynamic legal adoption processes. This means that Switzerland is actually discussing automatically adopting the laws of a criminal organization.
Patrick Baab Interviewed Jacques Baud
We would like to draw your attention to the interview recorded on December 16 by our author Patrik Baab with Jaques Baud.
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Tyler Durden
Sun, 12/21/2025 - 07:00 Close
Sun, 21 Dec 2025 04:20:00 +0000 Why US Is Such A Popular Destination During Global Migrant Crisis
Why US Is Such A Popular Destination During Global Migrant Crisis
Why US Is Such A Popular Destination During Global Migrant Crisis
Authored by Chris Summers via The Epoch Times,
The Trump administration recently suspended the processing of all immigration applications from 19 countries, including Afghanistan, citing national security and public safety concerns.
The Dec. 2 decision came a week after an Afghan national who had been allowed into the United States under a Biden-era program was charged with shooting two National Guard soldiers near the White House. The ambush killed one of the victims and left the other in critical condition.
The White House’s move comes amid a global migration crisis, in which millions of people have left their home countries in Latin America, Africa, and Asia for the affluent economies of North America and Europe.
Although the United States was founded by immigrants, experts say that times have changed, and the country has become too popular a destination that now action is needed to restore a functioning immigration system.
“How this country was founded, and the ethos and numbers of people in the 1600s, 1700s, and 1800s are very different than what we’ve been experiencing,” Lora Ries, director of the Border Security and Immigration Center at The Heritage Foundation, told The Epoch Times. “And so our immigration system has just been run away, whether it’s illegal or legal.”
“We need to pop this bubble and get control over our country, [with] a lawful, manageable and orderly immigration system.”
The countries affected by the Dec. 2 memorandum were Burma (also known as Myanmar), Chad, the Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Haiti, Iran, Libya, Sudan, Yemen, Burundi, Cuba, Laos, Sierra Leone, Togo, Turkmenistan, and Venezuela. Most of these countries have high visa overstay rates or poor vetting procedures.
In August, the Pew Research Center analyzed Census Bureau data and said 53.3 million immigrants were living in the United States in June 2025.
According to the Migration Policy Institute, immigrants made up 14.8 percent of the population in 2024, a rate the United States has not seen since 1890.
“Our inn is not only full, it is overflowing,” Ries said. “So other countries need to step up and pitch in.”
Push and Pull Factors in Migration
In 2024, the United Nations’ population division published data that suggested a record 304 million people lived in a country other than their country of birth.
That figure—which represents 3.7 percent of the world’s 8.2 billion people—was up from 275 million in 2020.
That number would include the 42 million people who, in June 2025, the United Nations refugee agency said have left their home country due to “persecution, conflict, violence, human rights violations or events seriously disturbing public order,” plus 8.4 million who are claiming asylum in another country.
War and political violence are push factors in some parts of the world, says Paul Morland, demographer and author of “The Human Tide: How Population Shaped the Modern World,” but he said they were less significant than people’s age-old desire to improve their standard of living.
“A bigger story than the security one is the economic one, because that’s always there,” Morland told The Epoch Times.
He noted that the Congo, which has had an ongoing civil war for several years, has not generated large numbers of migrants to Europe or North America, while India and Pakistan—which have been largely peaceful—have seen large numbers move to the West.
Many times, migrants use the persecution justification to pursue the economic motive, Ries noted.
“There are 193 countries on this planet, so if you are truly fleeing for your life, then you should go to the first safe country that you enter,” she said, “You should not be able to country shop and go through multiple safe countries without getting protection there, just because you want to get to the U.S.”
Cultural differences play a role in immigration’s impact on the host country, said Morland.
“What has a very big impact is when people from very radically different cultures arrive,” he said, “They look very different, their practices are very different, their belief systems and values are very different. And the assumption has to be that they will take longer to integrate.”
In America, immigration has historically been associated with positive outcomes, Javier Palomarez, president and CEO of the United States Hispanic Business Council, told The Epoch Times.
“Since its inception, America has thrived by attracting the best and brightest from around the world to contribute to our innovation, economy, and society as whole,” said in a statement sent by email.
“After all, America was founded on the idea that you could leave your former life behind, start anew, and build something for yourself and your family.”
There are reasons behind that success.
“This idea is reliant on the invisible pillars that hold this nation together and attract contributors from around the world: freedom, opportunity, respect for family, patriotism, law and order, and a strong set of rules and guidelines that enable competition and encourage growth,” said Palomarez.
The “ubiquity of English” in much of Africa, Asia, and Latin America also made the United States and Britain attractive for many migrants, said Morland.
Birth of the Immigration Law Industry
In the 1990s, migrants and human traffickers began to realize that if they could get into their destination country and then claim asylum, they could use legal avenues to prevent being deported, Tony Smith, a former director general of the UK Border Force, told The Epoch Times.
“This gave birth to an industry of immigration lawyers who would support migrants who entered your country illegally,” Smith said. “That had the effect of preventing removals, at least temporarily, whilst that application was processed.”
He said the fact that the asylum-seekers had usually passed through numerous safe countries en route made no difference.
“You have people from all over the world coming in through Mexico because they want to go to the U.S.,” said Smith. “They’re not interested in getting refuge in Mexico or South America.”
A masked migrant illegally crosses into the United States outside of San Diego, Calif., on Dec. 5, 2023. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times
But President Donald Trump has upended the system.
“He is doing things that actually will horrify some judges and some lawyers,” said Smith, “[but] he’s had a very significant effect, both in terms of reducing illegal migration across the southern border, but also in terms of the inland activity by [U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement] to arrest people who should not be in the U.S., and by exerting political pressure on those countries that have traditionally said, ‘We’re not taking our own people back again.’”
Morland said in countries with grinding poverty, long-distance migration is unlikely.
“Ironically, it’s when people get off the floor [that migration happens],” Morland said. “They get a bit of money. They get an iPhone. They can see what the world’s like. They can afford an airfare. They maybe have already got an uncle in London or Paris. That’s when they move, not when they’re absolutely dirt poor and ignorant sitting in the village.”
Morland said it is also unlikely that migrants would return to countries like Afghanistan, Syria, or Sudan even when peace is restored.
“If the Taliban were overturned, and a beautiful liberal democracy were formed in Afghanistan, I hardly think anyone could go back,” Morland said. “Over many, many years, if that then led to economic prosperity, maybe.”
He said “unforced remigration” is going to be fairly limited from countries such as the United States, Canada, and Germany, where per-capita incomes are $50,000 or more.
Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) holds a photo of Army Spc. Sarah Beckstrom, a West Virginia National Guard member who was shot near the White House on Nov. 26, in Washington on Dec. 2, 2025. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times
National Security and ‘Open Border Welfare State’
Rahmanullah Lakanwal, 29, the Afghan national who has been charged with the first-degree murder of Army Spc. Sarah Beckstrom , 20, and assaulting Staff Sgt. Andrew Wolfe with intent to kill, in Washington, had worked with the CIA during the war in Afghanistan.
He was one of around 76,000 Afghans allowed to resettle in the United States under a Biden-era resettlement program, Operation Allies Welcome.
It has since faced intense scrutiny from Trump and other U.S. officials over allegations of gaps in the vetting process.
Ries said the president’s actions were a valid response to the Washington shooting, and what the Biden administration had done “in terms of opening the border, and mass paroling of hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of inadmissible aliens from around the world.”
Trump’s return to the White House this January also marked the culmination of many American voters’ frustration with the country’s immigration-related policies and concerns about national security, Ries noted.
“People got so fed up with the open border welfare state that we were living in that they voted against that last November,” she said.
“They wanted the border secure. They wanted the portable aliens removed, and they want taxpayer dollars to go to Americans first, not people who aren’t supposed to be here.”
Declining Birth Rate in the US
The global migration crisis also comes amid wildly contrasting fertility rates between the West and the Third World.
Africa has some of the highest rates in the world. Somalia, Chad, Niger, and the Congo all have fertility rates of six or above.
In 1960, the fertility rate in the United States was between four and five. By 2023, that number had halved to 2.2, approaching 2.1, the minimum level at which a population is able to replace itself from one generation to the next.
Macroeconomist Jesús Fernández-Villaverde called low fertility rates “the true economic challenge of our time” in a February report for the American Enterprise Institute.
Palomarez, the president and CEO of the United States Hispanic Business Council, said immigration has been part of the solution for this challenge.
“At the end of the day, especially given our declining birth rate, our nation is reliant upon a steady stream of immigrant workers and entrepreneurs,” Palomarez said.
Ries said the baby bust in the United States should be addressed at a fundamental level.
“The falling fertility rate in America is the result of a long-term destructive campaign against marriage, families, and having children, and so we just need to wake up from this decades-long nightmare of anti-family, anti-marriage, anti-children policies and agenda, and return to how God made us.”
Tyler Durden
Sat, 12/20/2025 - 23:20 Close
Sun, 21 Dec 2025 03:45:00 +0000 An AI Campaign War Is Coming: Boomers Vs. Doomers
An AI Campaign War Is Coming: Boomers Vs. Doomers
The battle over artificial intelligence policy is moving from Washington hearing rooms to the campaign trail , where two rival political efforts are preparing to spen
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An AI Campaign War Is Coming: Boomers Vs. Doomers
The battle over artificial intelligence policy is moving from Washington hearing rooms to the campaign trail , where two rival political efforts are preparing to spend at least $150 million to shape the outcome of federal and state elections.
The clash pits industry-backed advocates for rapid AI development against a bipartisan group of former lawmakers calling for stronger regulation and tighter export controls. The scale of the planned spending exceeds the roughly $100 million deployed by crypto-aligned political groups during the 2024 election cycle, Punchbowl News reports.
Unlike the crypto push, however, the emerging AI fight features two organized camps preparing to go head-to-head: pro-industry “AI boomers” and regulation-minded “AI doomers,” each seeking to influence lawmakers and voters ahead of the 2026 midterms.
BOOMERS: AI To The Moon Under One National Framework
On the pro-AI side is Leading the Future, a group of industry-backed super PACs seeded with money from technology leaders and venture capital interests. The effort has received early backing from OpenAI President Greg Brockman, venture capital firm a16z, and Palantir co-founder Joe Lonsdale , and is preparing to spend up to $100 million.
Josh Vlasto, who is co-leading the group’s political strategy, said the goal is to elect candidates supportive of a national, federal-led approach to AI regulation.
"You will see a broad consensus in Congress to have the federal government lead on creating a national, pro-AI, pro-America regulatory framework," Vlasto said.
That approach reflects industry concerns that a patchwork of state-level AI laws could hinder U.S. competitiveness, particularly in the race with China. While Vlasto said his group supports the idea of a federal AI standard, he indicated that policy specifics would be handled by a related advocacy organization.
Leading the Future is expected to support candidates who favor federal preemption of state AI regulations. Vlasto, who also served as a spokesperson for Fairshake - the crypto-aligned super PAC that backed more than 50 candidates in 2024 - declined to set a limit on how many races the AI-focused group might enter.
The group has already signaled its willingness to play offense, announcing plans to spend against New York State Assemblymember Alex Bores, a Democrat who has supported state-level AI regulation and is running for Congress.
Vlasto said the organization is designed to move quickly as policy debates evolve and has leaned heavily into digital advertising, though it has also purchased television spots.
“This is a highly dynamic moment in this policy debate ,” he said. “We are built… to use our resources and bring the AI sector together to advocate for this agenda.”
In short, AI Boomers want:
Federal preemption of state AI laws: one national AI framework , not 50 state regimes. States like New York or California passing their own AI rules are seen as a threat to innovation.
Light-touch federal regulation: Support a “federal standard,” but generally oppose detailed, prescriptive rules . Policy specifics are often deferred to industry-friendly agencies or advisory bodies.
Speed over precaution: The belief is that slowing deployment risks losing the global AI race, especially to China. Safety, bias, and misuse concerns are viewed as manageable after deployment.
Industry-driven governance: AI companies should have a major role in shaping the rules that govern them. Regulatory capture is not how they describe it; they frame it as “technical expertise.”
DOOMERS: Control AI before it reshapes society
On the opposing side, former Reps. Chris Stewart (R-Utah) and Brad Carson (D-Okla.) are launching two separate super PACs aimed at boosting candidates who favor stronger AI regulation and export controls.
Together, the PACs aim to raise $50 million for the 2026 cycle - roughly half the amount promised by Leading the Future, but enough, organizers say, to compete with tech industry spending.
“Most people are anxious about AI. They’re not opposed to it, they’re anxious ,” Carson said, arguing that public concern about the pace of AI development is being underestimated.
Carson criticized what he described as tech companies’ “accelerationist YOLO agenda” and said his PACs would disclose their donors in the coming months.
The groups plan to support candidates for the House and Senate and are also considering investments in state legislative races and gubernatorial contests. Carson said spending decisions will be made across television, digital platforms, and other media as appropriate, with endorsements coming from both political parties.
Two policy issues are central to the effort: AI regulation and export controls on advanced AI chips bound for China.
Carson said the PACs will support candidates “who favor strong export controls,” and he reiterated opposition to President Trump’s decision to allow Nvidia to sell advanced AI chips to China. Carson, who serves as president of Americans for Responsible Innovation, has argued that export restrictions are critical to national security.
The PACs will also back candidates who believe government has a role in regulating AI, including allowing states to act in the absence of a federal framework.
Doomer priorities:
Meaningful regulation, not just federal symbolism: They want enforceable rules on: Model deployment. Safety testing, Transparency, Accountability for harm.
State authority as a backstop - not a takeover: S tates should be allowed to regulate AI if Congress fails to act .
This mirrors how states regulate: Consumer protection, Data privacy, Product safety, State involvement is seen as a pressure mechanism , not the ideal endpoint.
Export controls and national security: They strongly support restricting advanced AI chips to China . They view unfettered exports as a strategic and military risk.
Public trust as a strategic asset: Their argument is that if voters lose confidence in AI, politicians will overcorrect. Early guardrails are framed as pro-innovation , not anti-innovation.
Competing visions for AI’s future
While Carson and Stewart reject the label “anti-AI,” they argue that guardrails are necessary to maintain public trust in the technology.
“Big tech has lost the confidence of the American people,” Carson said. “And if the American people don’t believe in [AI], you’re going to see politicians turn against it in a very severe wa y .”
Tyler Durden
Sat, 12/20/2025 - 22:45 Close
Sun, 21 Dec 2025 03:10:00 +0000 CIA is Broken... Can It Be Fixed?
CIA is Broken... Can It Be Fixed?
CIA is Broken... Can It Be Fixed?
Authored by Larry Johnson via Sonar21.com.
Sy Hersh's latest Substack article on the prospects a successful outcome of the US attempt to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine is important because it reveals the pathetic incompetence of the CIA. It appears that Sy reported what senior Trump officials told him about the on going negotiations with the Russians and Ukrainians, and that those officials were sharing their understanding of the capabilities of Russia and Ukraine based on intelligence reports and intelligence analysis provided principally by CIA analysts.
Here are some of the more egregious claims by these officials:
Both nations are on the verge of economic and military collapse…
Putin is facing economic, political, military, and public pressure...
Putin is facing increasing political, economic, and military opposition in Moscow—mortgage rates are soaring and the Russian military is in serious disarray—has realized that he must end the war…
Ongoing warfare is not going to change the balance of forces. Putin is under pressure to end the war from his military and from a public staggered by its continuing costs, and inflation is at 8.4 percent…
Some of the most senior Russian generals, while still loyal to Putin, urgently want the depleted Russian Army to get out.
Putin is staying afloat by borrowing money from Russian banks that are not permitted to lend to the population.
Rather than debunk each of these claims, I will focus on the last two.
Regarding the claim that Russian banks “are not permitted to lend to the population.” Wrong! Russian banks are fully allowed—and actively do—make loans to Russian citizens . According to Russia's Central Bank and news reports from Reuters , Bloomberg , and The Moscow Times , there are no prohibitions on domestic lending to Russian individuals under current regulations (as of December 2025). Consumer lending (unsecured loans, mortgages, car loans, credit cards) is a major part of the Russian banking sector, with retail loan portfolios growing continuously because Russian wages have increased more than the rate of inflation — 20% — and are greater than the high interest rates. How could the Trump intelligence community get such an easy fact to verify so wrong?
Then there is the assertion that the Russian army is “depleted.” Russia's active-duty military personnel strength as of December 2025 is approximately 1.32 million. This figure comes from the 2025 Global Firepower Index (reviewed January 2025) and cross-verified sources like Statista , which cites ~1.32 million active troops (part of a total force of ~3.57 million including reserves and paramilitary). My sources in Russia put the number at greater than 1.5 million. In February 2022, according to IISS Military Balance 2022 and Global Firepower , Russia's active-duty military forces were 900,000.
In terms of Russia's ground forces, they have grown from 300,000 in February 2022 to 623,000 in just the Ukrainian theater, according to Ukraine's General Syrsky. Total Russian ground forces now exceed 1 million men. Does that sound like depletion to you?
So why does the CIA persist in peddling provably false information . I blame former CIA Director John Brennan. John Brennan, as CIA Director (2013–2017), initiated a major reorganization in March 2015 that integrated analysts (from the Directorate of Analysis) and operations officers (from the Directorate of Operations) into hybrid mission centers.
This “modernization plan” aimed to break down traditional silos — ie, previously analysts and operations officers worked in separate units — by creating 10 new mission centers (focused on regions/threats like counterterrorism and cyber), where analysts, operators, digital experts, and support staff would work side-by-side under unified leadership. Brennan announced the overhaul on March 6, 2015 , with implementation beginning shortly after (eg, assistant directors named April 30, 2015). The ostensible goal was better integration for modern threats like cyber warfare, modeled partly on the existing Counterterrorism Center, but the actual effect subordinated independent analysis to the covert programs directed and managed by the operations officers.
When I started working as an analyst in the fall of 1986, the Directorate of Intelligence occupied the north wing of the CIA headquarters and the Directorate of Operations occupied the south wing… We were in our respective silos. I was the Honduras analyst when the war in Central America was a top priority for the Reagan administration. Funding the Contras and fighting the Sandinista was a major covert action program of the Director of Operations… The Central American Task Force (CATF) to be precise. The case officers in the CATF had every incentive to make the program look like it was being successful.
I vividly recall a briefing that I, along with the Nicaragua branch military analyst, gave to members of Congress on March 12, 1988 about a developing situation on the border of Honduras and Nicaragua. We were accompanied by the Chief of military operations for the CATF. We had intelligence that the Sandinistas were prepared to launch military operations against Contra forces in the Las Vegas salient of southern Honduras. During the course of that briefing we received news from headquarters that the Sandinistas had allegedly overrun a Contra base and were killing the CIA-backed Contras. What a disaster!
As we filed out of that briefing got into the van to take us back to headquarters, the CATF military chief began berating me and the military analyst for the Nicaraguan branch as having contributed to this alleged disaster for the Contras because our analysis did not enthusiastically support the CATF covert program. When I arrived back at headquarters and had a chance to look at the actual intelligence, I discovered that we had been told a lie. Instead of the Sandinistas swarming a Contra camp like Mexican troops attacking the Alamo, the intel report simply stated that a Contra patrol had skirmished with a Sandinista patrol 15 km south of the Contra base. The point of telling this anecdote is to illustrate the kind of pressure that we as analysts faced from the operations side of the house to spin a narrative that portrayed the Contra's in the best possible light while downplaying the competence of the Sandinista forces.
I think a similar phenomena has been at play since the start of Russia's Special Military Operation in February 2022. I believe that the analysts responsible for reporting on the Ukrainians and Russians are fully embedded in a Mission Center , something akin to the CATF, and that analysts face daily pressures from operations officers to paint the Ukrainians as victors and the Russians as losers who are on the verge of economic and political collapse.
It is simple human nature… If you want to get promoted, don't tell the truth, just go along with the program.
I also have learned that the primary source material the analysts are using is generated by the Ukrainians, who are working in concert with CIA officers deployed in Ukraine. I believe that the combination of peer pressure from operations officers to support a covert mission and a steady supply of tainted information from biased Ukrainian sources explains why the US officials who spoke to Sy Hersh are painting such a false and distorted picture of the war in Ukraine and are describing the Russians as incompetent, depleted and on the verge of crumbling. Garbage in, garbage out .
If the CIA has any hope of being able to provide something approaching objective, truthful analysis, the Mission Centers created by Brennan must be dismantled. There was a press report last February that current CIA director Ratcliffe was reviewing whether to reverse Brennan's changes due to perceived negative impacts on human intelligence (HUMINT) and core missions. Let me assure you that the negative impacts are real, not perceived.
So far, Ratcliffe has not acted to reverse Brennan. Maybe the defeat of Ukraine by Russia will finally convince Ratcliffe to take action to rescue analysts from the clutches of the operations officers.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 12/20/2025 - 22:10 Close