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Thu, 11 Dec 2025 19:00:00 +0000 Putin Doubles Down On Backing Maduro As US Prepares To Seize More Oil Tankers
Putin Doubles Down On Backing Maduro As US Prepares To Seize More Oil Tankers
Putin Doubles Down On Backing Maduro As US Prepares To Seize More Oil Tankers
The Kremlin confirmed that Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke by phone with Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on Thursday and reassured him of Moscow's support, at a moment he's facing likely regime change action at the hands of US military might.
Putin expressed support for Maduro's rule "in the face of growing external pressure," but they also discussed their advancing a strategic partnership and the areas of ongoing economic and energy projects. Moscow has long stood by Caracas' side throughout years of growing isolation and sanctions.
The Kremlin statement added that "Putin expressed solidarity with the Venezuelan people and reaffirmed his support for the Maduro government's policy of safeguarding national interests and sovereignty amid mounting external pressure."
Wednesday saw elite American special forces operators board and seize a Venezuelan oil tanker. They were filmed rappelling onto the ship's deck from a helicopter, with rifles at the ready.
This has serious repercussions for Russia too, given Moscow has been a longtime trading partner with Caracas, and it raises the potential that Russian tankers in the Caribbean could be intercepted.
Perhaps even more notably, Reuters reports that Washington is preparing to intercept more ships transporting Venezuelan oil following the seizure of a tanker this week, as it increases pressure on Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, six sources familiar with the matter said on Thursday .
Further direct interventions by the U.S. are expected in the coming weeks targeting ships carrying Venezuelan oil that may also have transported oil from other countries targeted by U.S. sanctions, such as Iran, according to the sources familiar with the matter who declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the issue.
Last weekend Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said that his country would stand "shoulder to shoulder" with Venezuela in this time of crisis, but didn't offer anything concrete.
"This is primarily due to the desire to assert the unquestioning dominance of the United States in the region, this is a trademark of the Trump administration ," Ryabkov explained .
According to some more of the latest developments via Newsweek :
Initial reports on Wednesday cited U.S. officials saying the Coast Guard carried out the tanker seizure under international maritime law, targeting vessels tied to alleged illicit PDVSA-linked crude shipments.
U.S President Donald Trump later confirmed the seizure, hinting that “other things are happening,” but offered no further details.
A senior Trump administration official described the move as a “judicial enforcement action on a stateless vessel” last docked in Venezuela.
Oil prices jumped on the news: Brent crude rose 0.8 percent to $62.35 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate climbed to $58.46.
Analysts warn the seizure may further strain U.S.–Venezuela relations and deter shippers already wary of handling sanctioned Venezuelan crude.
Maduro has long accused Washington of seeking to overthrow him and seize Venezuela’s vast oil reserves; the nation’s production has fallen from over 2 million barrels a day to roughly 1 million.
The seizure comes after Trump renewed threats of intervention by land, air, or sea, including a recent U.S. fighter jet flyover near Venezuelan airspace.
Caracas condemned the action as “international piracy” and “brazen theft,” accusing the U.S. of trying to control its natural resources.
Trump called the tanker the “largest ever” seized by the U.S.
Some hawks have long viewed Venezuela as a Latin American satellite state of Russian influence...
While Russia has been a longtime ally of President Maduro, it is unlikely to come to his defense in any direct way, also given the delicate and sensitive efforts to improve bilateral ties with Washington amid talks to de-escalate the Ukraine war. This despite Caracas having formally pleaded for more help from Moscow of late, including arms deliveries.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/11/2025 - 14:00 Close
Thu, 11 Dec 2025 18:45:00 +0000 Impeachment Articles Filed Against Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Impeachment Articles Filed Against Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Impeachment Articles Filed Against Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Authored by Jonathan Turley,
I recently wrote about the absurdity of the Democratic effort to impeach Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. I have also opposed Republican calls to impeach judges. Impeachment mania has returned for the midterm elections. However, on the scale of utter lunacy, the call to impeach Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. takes the cake.
This effort is being led by Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI), who is running for Senate and has decided that the best way to achieve that distinction is to turn the constitutional process into a mockery.In academic writings, testimony (including at the impeachment hearings of Clinton, Trump, and Biden), and litigation (as the lead counsel in the last judicial impeachment trial), I have long argued against such ill-defined articles for impeachment.Stevens is seeking to impeach Kennedy for turning “his back on science”:
“Today, I formally introduced articles of impeachment against Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. RFK Jr. has turned his back on science and the safety of the American people. Michiganders cannot take another day of his chaos.”
Many Americans welcome Kennedy’s efforts to make food healthier and to challenge the status quo at HHS. Others, like Stevens, have strong objections to those policies. This is a good-faith and worthy debate for us to have. For years, there was little debate on such questions.
Indeed, in the prior Administration, to challenge prevailing expert opinion was to risk being labeled a wingnut or conspiracist. The very same people who are calling for Kennedy’s head were part of the mob denouncing dissenters in the scientific community, or those who remained silent as scientists were fired, censored, and cancelled.
The most anti-science position was to demand compliance with the orthodoxy of the pandemic years. Take Jay Bhattacharya, who co-authored the Great Barrington Declaration and was a vocal critic of COVID-19 policies.
Bhattacharya is now the 18th director of the National Institutes of Health and is working with Kennedy to change the culture of groupthink among health researchers and regulators in the government.
Bhattacharya was censored, blacklisted, and vilified due to his opposing views on health policy, including opposing wholesale shutdowns of schools and businesses. He was recently honored with the prestigious “Intellectual Freedom” award from the American Academy of Sciences and Letters.
He was one of many who were blacklisted for challenging pandemic policies. It did not matter that positions once denounced as “conspiracy theories” have been recognized or embraced by many.
Some argued that there was no need to shut down schools, which has led to a crisis in mental illness among the young and the loss of critical years of education. Other nations heeded such advice with more limited shutdowns (including keeping schools open) and did not experience our losses.
Others argued that the virus’s origin was likely the Chinese research lab in Wuhan. That position was denounced by the Washington Post as a “debunked” coronavirus “conspiracy theory .” The New York Times Science and Health reporter Apoorva Mandavilli called any mention of the lab theory “racist.”
Federal agencies now support the lab theory as the most likely based on the scientific evidence.
Likewise, many questioned the efficacy of those blue surgical masks and supported natural immunity to the virus — both positions were later recognized by the government.
Others questioned the six-foot rule, which shut down many businesses, as unsupported by science. In congressional testimony, Dr. Anthony Fauci recently admitted that the rule “sort of just appeared” and “wasn’t based on data.” Yet not only did it result in heavily enforced rules (and meltdowns) in public areas, but the media further ostracized dissenting critics.
Again, Fauci and other scientists did little to stand up for these scientists or call for free speech to be protected. As I discuss in my new book, “ The Indispensable Right ,” the result is that we never really had a national debate on many of these issues and the result was massive social and economic costs.
The point is that these attacks were “turning your back on science” by crushing dissent and stopping any meaningful debate on these issues. These same figures were wrong on the science, but now seek to lead another mob to impeach those seeking to change policies and practices at HHS and NIH.
Democrats clearly oppose Kennedy’s initiatives. Fine. Use legislation and the power of the purse to push back on those efforts if you have a majority in Congress. What you should not do is use impeachment to achieve what you could not achieve during the confirmation process.
Many on the left appear to have a particular hatred for Kennedy as a type of fallen angel, a progressive from an iconic Democratic family who rejected the party’s intolerance and direction. Hell hath no fury like a party scorned.
The pledges of new impeachments are ominous going into the midterm elections, where Democrats appear to be promising more of the same dysfunctional efforts to use this constitutional process for raw partisan advantage. Even with those who oppose Trump Administration policies, it is hard to believe that a majority of Americans want to return to the same chaos of the first term.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/11/2025 - 13:45 Close
Thu, 11 Dec 2025 18:30:31 +0000 Solid 30Y Auction Stops Through, Easing Long-End Selloff Concerns
Solid 30Y Auction Stops Through, Easing Long-End Selloff Concerns
After two impressive coupon auctions ahead of yesterday's FOMC, moments ago we got the week's final auction, a sale of $22BN in 30Y paper. The auction was solid: it t
Read more.....
Solid 30Y Auction Stops Through, Easing Long-End Selloff Concerns
After two impressive coupon auctions ahead of yesterday's FOMC, moments ago we got the week's final auction, a sale of $22BN in 30Y paper. The auction was solid: it through, with a bounce in the bid to cover and solid buyside demand despite a modest dip in foreign bidders.
Here are the details.
The auction stopped at a high yield of 4.773%, up from 4.694% in November, although unlike the November auction, today's auction stopped through the 4.774% When Issued by 0.1bps. This was the first through since September, and only the second in the past 6 months.
The bid to cover rose to 2.365% from 2.295% in November, and was just fractionally above the 2.355% six auction average.
The internals showed continued solid buyside demand: Indirects were awarded 65.4%, down from 71.0% in November. but stripping away that one outlier auction, the foreign demand was the highest since January. And with Directs taking 23.5%, in line with the recent average of 23.9%, Dealers were left with 11.2%, down from 14.5% last month and below the six auction average of 12.5%.
Overall, this was another solid auction with impressive demand and refuting creeping concerns about rapidly rising long-end yields amid a global bond selloff, one which for now at least has avoided the US.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/11/2025 - 13:30 Close
Thu, 11 Dec 2025 18:11:55 +0000 Senate Fails To Advance GOP Healthcare Plan After Collins, Murkowski, Hawley & Sullivan Break Ranks
Senate Fails To Advance GOP Healthcare Plan After Collins, Murkowski, Hawley & Sullivan Break Ranks
Update (1311ET): The Senate has failed to advance the GOP's healthcare plan which would allow Obam
Read more.....
Senate Fails To Advance GOP Healthcare Plan After Collins, Murkowski, Hawley & Sullivan Break Ranks
Update (1311ET): The Senate has failed to advance the GOP's healthcare plan which would allow Obamacare subsidies to expire, and would give millions of Americans $1,000 - $1,500 in health savings accounts.
The plan failed by a vote of 51 yeas to 48 nays. Republicans needed 60 votes to pass it. Breaking ranks with the GOP were Republican Sens. Collins, Hawley, Murkowski and Sullivan.
Looks like they did have a plan...
Next up: the Democrats' plan .
* * *
Authored by Lawrence Wilson & Nathan Worcester via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
The Senate is poised for a Dec. 11 vote on competing measures to resolve the standoff over extending the expiring subsidies for Obamacare.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.).
Both are likely to fall along party lines, and to fail to reach the 60-vote threshold required to advance legislation in the Senate.
The subsidies, officially known as enhanced premium tax credits, were created as a temporary measure in 2021 to blunt the economic impact of the COVID-19 national health emergency.
Originally offered for two years, the enhanced subsidies were further extended for three years and will expire at the end of this month.
Democrats, fearing that allowing the subsidies to expire now would cause financial hardship and cause millions of Americans to drop their health coverage, have proposed another three-year extension.
“Democrats have put forward the cleanest, fastest, most realistic solution, a three-year extension of the current tax credits ,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said on Dec. 9.
Republicans, saying that the billions spent on these additional subsidies have contributed to rapidly rising insurance premiums and have given rise to opportunities for fraud, oppose an extension that does not address those issues.
“The bill [Democrats] are going to put on the floor will fail, ” Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) told reporters on Dec. 9.
Republicans have proposed an alternative plan. It would replace the enhanced subsidies with a cash payment to eligible enrollees, to be placed in a Health Savings Account. The original Obamacare subsidies, distinct from the enhanced subsides, would remain in place.
Schumer on Dec. 9 criticized the proposal as “dead on arrival.”
Enhanced Subsidies
The enhanced subsidies enacted in 2021 expanded eligibility for Obamacare, offering subsidies for wage earners well into the middle class.
The original Obamacare subsidies are open to people making between 100 percent and 400 percent of the federal poverty level. That equates to a household income of between $32,150 and $128,600 for a family of four.
The enhanced subsidies increased the amount of the subsidies, removed the income limit, and capped out-of-pocket premium payments at 8.5 percent of household income. Some low-income enrollees are eligible for plans with no premium payment under the coverage expansion.
Obamacare enrollment more than doubled after the enhanced subsidies were introduced.
Standoff
Democrats pushed for a permanent extension of the enhanced subsidies early in the fall, refusing to authorize continued spending to fund the government until Republicans agreed to negotiate over this and other health-care-related proposals.
Republicans refused to consider the extension during the shutdown.
The government shutdown, which lasted for 43 days, ended when eight Democratic Senators voted with Republicans to approve stopgap funding to reopen the government, but on the condition that their party be given a vote this month on extending the subsidies.
Schumer revealed the Democrats’ proposal for a three-year extension on Dec. 4.
Sens. Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) and Bill Cassidy (R-La.) released their plan on Dec. 8, and Republicans elected to present it for a vote alongside the Schumer plan on Dec. 11.
Other plans have been proposed by Senate Republicans, by bipartisan groups of House members, and by the House New Democrat Alliance.
Compromise Seekers
The latest compromise proposal has been put forward by Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), joined by a bipartisan group of House members.
Fitzpatrick introduced a discharge petition that, if successful, could force the House to vote on his proposal. A discharge petition requires support from 218 House members.
The Fitzpatrick plan would extend the enhanced premium tax credits through 2027 to insulate consumers from sudden rate increases . It includes some measures to check fraud by unscrupulous insurance brokers and rein in some practices of pharmacy benefit managers, the middlemen in the prescription drug supply chain.
The measure has the support of several moderate House members, including Reps. Jared Golden (D-Maine), Michael Lawler (R-N.Y.), Don Bacon (R-Neb.), Thomas Suozzi (D-N.Y.), and Robert Bresnahan (R-Pa.).
The subsidies have taken on a sense of urgency as the Jan. 1 premium increases draw nearer. “This is personal to a lot of us because these are our friends and our neighbors that are losing sleep over this,” Fitzpatrick said.
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) applauded the effort, saying it seemed similar to a three-year ramp-down of the subsidies that he suggested.
Tillis told The Epoch Times on Dec. 10 that any measure would need roughly equal support from both parties because hardliners on both sides would be likely to reject a compromise.
Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) said, “Compromise should never be a dirty word.”
Sen. Angus King (I-Maine) said: “This should be a bipartisan. Let’s get together and figure this out.”
Sen. Josh Hawley, who has proposed no tax on health care premiums, deductibles, or copays, said lawmakers should explore every option for bringing down the cost of health care.
“I think it should be hard to go home and say to people whose premiums are doubling, ‘You know, we just couldn’t quite get it done,’” he said.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/11/2025 - 13:11 Close
Thu, 11 Dec 2025 18:05:00 +0000 Dems Are "Greatest Con Artists" When It Comes To Inflation Disaster
Dems Are "Greatest Con Artists" When It Comes To Inflation Disaster
Dems Are "Greatest Con Artists" When It Comes To Inflation Disaster
Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,
In a fresh interview, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt exposed the left’s blatant hypocrisy on economic issues that have hammered everyday Americans for years.
Leavitt hammered Democrats for posing as saviors on affordability while ignoring their own role in fueling runaway inflation during the Biden era.
Appearing on Fox News, Leavitt labeled Democrats “the greatest CON ARTISTS in American politics!” She zeroed in on their empty rhetoric, stating, “They are pretending to champion the issue of affordability when they themselves created the worst inflation crisis in a generation.”
She drove the point home, noting “You can’t create a problem and then turn around and say, I’m the best person to fix it!”
Leavitt emphasized that voters see through the charade, adding, “that’s why President Trump was reelected to fix it. And that’s exactly what he’s doing.”
The press secretary urged Republicans to step up their game, noting, “So as President Trump has been screaming from the rooftops, Republicans need to remain tough and smart, and they need to be more vocal about touting the accomplishments of this administration.”
She wrapped up by dismantling the Democrats’ claims to represent ordinary folks: “You can’t say you’re for the working man and woman when you vote to raise their taxes. Republicans and President Trump have a proven economic formula and agenda that’s working. It’s focused on bigger paychecks and lower prices, and that’s what President Trump will talk about tonight.”
Leavitt’s comments come against the backdrop of the Biden administration’s dismal economic track record, where inflation soared to levels not seen in decades. Under Biden, the average year-over-year inflation rate hit nearly 5%, with a peak of 9.1% in mid-2022 – a far cry from the stable, low-inflation environment of Trump’s first term.
Cumulative price increases reached a staggering 21.5% over Biden’s four years, squeezing family budgets on everything from groceries to housing.
This wasn’t some unavoidable global hiccup; it stemmed from reckless spending sprees and anti-energy policies that crippled domestic production.
Democrats flooded the economy with trillions in unchecked stimulus, igniting price hikes that disproportionately burdened working-class Americans. Meanwhile, their war on fossil fuels drove up energy costs, amplifying the pain at every turn.
Contrast that with Trump’s approach, which prioritizes unleashing U.S. energy independence and cutting red tape to boost growth. The results are already showing, proving Leavitt’s point that Republicans hold the winning formula for prosperity.
Nowhere is the Trump turnaround more evident than at the gas pump, where prices have tumbled to levels unseen in decades. Americans are stunned by the rapid drop, crediting President Trump’s pro-drilling policies and focus on energy dominance.
In Colorado, one driver captured the widespread disbelief: “I ain’t seen the gas $1.83 since the F-ing early 2000s! What the F goin’ on? What the hell goin’ on?!”
This sentiment echoes across the nation as Trump’s agenda slashes costs that skyrocketed under Biden. During Biden’s tenure, average gas prices hovered around $3.50 per gallon nationally, with spikes above $5 in some states – a direct hit from policies that hampered drilling and pipelines.
Under Trump, Americans are seeing multi-year lows, with Colorado’s current averages dipping below $2.50 and trending even lower in spots.
These plummeting prices aren’t magic – they’re the fruit of Trump’s drill-baby-drill strategy, reopening federal lands for exploration and fast-tracking infrastructure projects.
It’s a stark rebuke to the green zealots who prioritized climate virtue-signaling over affordable energy for families.
The facts are clear: When America produces its own energy, prices fall, and independence grows. Trump’s policies are restoring that edge, putting more money back in pockets and easing the affordability crunch Democrats exacerbated.
Leavitt’s call for Republicans to get louder about these successes couldn’t be timelier. With Democrats scrambling to rewrite history and claim credit for fixes they obstructed, the GOP needs to own the narrative. Trump’s playbook – tax cuts, deregulation, and energy freedom – is delivering bigger paychecks and lower costs, just as promised.
As inflation cools and gas flows cheaply, Americans are experiencing the tangible benefits of ditching globalist agendas for pro-worker priorities. The contrast exposes the left’s con game: They broke it, but Trump is fixing it.
Democrats’ affordability charade crumbles under scrutiny, while Trump’s results speak for themselves.
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Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/11/2025 - 13:05 Close
Thu, 11 Dec 2025 17:10:00 +0000 Left-Wing Judge Orders "Maryland Father" Migrant Released From ICE Custody
Left-Wing Judge Orders "Maryland Father" Migrant Released From ICE Custody
A left-wing federal judge in Maryland has ordered the immediate release of Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia, a Salvadoran migrant, directing Imm
Read more.....
Left-Wing Judge Orders "Maryland Father" Migrant Released From ICE Custody
A left-wing federal judge in Maryland has ordered the immediate release of Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia, a Salvadoran migrant, directing Immigration and Customs Enforcement to free him by 5 p.m. EST today.
U.S. District Judge Paula Xinis ruled that the federal government lacked lawful authority to continue detaining Garcia, accused of smuggling migrants within the U.S.
He has also been accused of being a member of the foreign terrorist organization MS-13.
Xinis noted that his confinement appeared "constitutionally infirm" because there was no final deportation order on record and officials had failed to take reasonable steps to secure a lawful destination for removal.
The Trump administration previously admitted it mistakenly deported Garcia to El Salvador earlier this year, where he was jailed in the CECOT maximum-security prison before being flown back to the U.S. to face human smuggling charges in Tennessee.
Left-wing corporate media and Democrats routinely identified the accused migrant smuggler as a "Maryland Father" ...
Notice how the "Maryland Father " corporate media stories suddenly erupted earlier this year - there is an information war underway by the Democratic Party and their MSM cheerleaders. Time for this term to surge once again...
The Justice Department could still appeal the ruling, and Trump officials may attempt to initiate new immigration proceedings against the migrant. Separately, Garcia still faces federal smuggling charges in Nashville.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/11/2025 - 12:10 Close
Thu, 11 Dec 2025 17:00:00 +0000 US 'Answers' China By Sending Pair Of Nuclear-Capable Bombers Over Sea Of Japan
US 'Answers' China By Sending Pair Of Nuclear-Capable Bombers Over Sea Of Japan
US 'Answers' China By Sending Pair Of Nuclear-Capable Bombers Over Sea Of Japan
On Wednesday we detailed that Japanese and South Korean fighter jets quickly answered a joint Russian-Chinese long-range bomber flight over the Western Pacific. Chinese J-16 fighter jets, two Russian Su-30 fighters and an A-50 early-warning aircraft were part of the provocative flight, which also passed close to South Korea. Russia's Defense Ministry (MoD) had confirmed its Tu-95MS strategic bombers and China’s H-9 strategic bombers conducted the eight hour flight over the Sea of Japan, the East China Sea and the Western Pacific - but that at no time was any country's airspace violated.
Washington has quickly injected itself into the ratcheting situation , coming amid a diplomatic and economic standoff between Japan and China, by sending US nuclear capable bombers on patrol over the Sea of Japan .
Handout photo from Japan's Ministry of Defense
Japan's government confirmed its fighter planes joined the US bomber patrol, which was clearly a show of force signaling China and Russia.
"We confirmed the strong resolve of Japan and the United States not to allow any unilateral change of the status quo by force, as well as the readiness of the Self-Defense Forces and the US military," Japan's Defense Ministry said in a statement.
The fresh exercise with the US Air Force was conducted in "an increasingly severe security environment surrounding our country" - it said.
The flight included a pair of US B-52 bombers, escorted by Japanese F-35 stealth fighters and three F-15 jets . Beijing had presented the prior, longer flight as routine and in accord with international law.
"We consider it a grave concern from the standpoint of Japan's security," Japan's Chief of Staff, Joint Staff General Hiroaki Uchikura, commented of the prior Chinese-Russian aerial patrol.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun responded dismissively, saying "The Japanese side has no need to make a fuss about nothing or to take this personally."
All of this is taking place as a carrier strike group is sailing close to Japan, and after weekend PLA drills saw monitoring Japanese planes come under radar lock. The US State Department has condemned this, saying "China's actions are not conducive to regional peace and stability."
Much of these tensions hearken back to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's words to parliament last month wherein she left open the possibility of Japan sending its military to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion.
Amid economic and diplomatic retaliation, including on the tourism sector, Japan was hoping for more vocal help from the Trump administration while feeling Beijing's wrath, but alas it hasn't come in a political form. However, the US sending bombers for an 'exercise' does seem fairly muscular.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/11/2025 - 12:00 Close
Thu, 11 Dec 2025 16:25:00 +0000 Over 30 Kamikaze Drones Sent On Moscow Overnight, Shutting Down Airports
Over 30 Kamikaze Drones Sent On Moscow Overnight, Shutting Down Airports
An overnight drone assault on Russia by Ukraine was particularly large, including dozens of drones sent on Moscow. The Russian defense ministry said it down 28
Read more.....
Over 30 Kamikaze Drones Sent On Moscow Overnight, Shutting Down Airports
An overnight drone assault on Russia by Ukraine was particularly large, including dozens of drones sent on Moscow. The Russian defense ministry said it down 287 drones across the country, one of the highest single-night totals ever recorded in the war .
Among these were 32 Ukrainian long-range kamikaze drone inbound on Moscow , reportedly intercepted. The disruption of airspace around Moscow was enough to briefly shut down area hubs and cause the delay of some 200 flights, impacting at least four airports.
Prior drone attacks have hit buildings in the heart of Moscow, via AFP
In addition to the 32 drones "intercepted and shot down" which were directly targeting the capital city, at least 40 more were headed toward the broader Moscow region, the defense ministry noted.
Two fertilizer plants were also targeted in the western Novgorod and Smolensk regions. Fire resulted at one of these, the Acron mineral fertilizer plant, among Russia's largest chemical producers .
The drone assault was quite extended in time too, with authorities saying it lasted over a period of some eight hours. Large drone waves were reported in other regions as well :
Bryansk region: 118 drones
Moscow region: 40
Kaluga region: 40
Russian media has presented the overnight operation as an act of desperation at a moment Zelensky is feeling the pressure from Washington, and as Ukraine forces are in retreat on the battlefield :
A senior Russian diplomat linked the surge in Ukrainian attacks to growing US pressure on Vladimir Zelensky to accept a peace deal with Russia that would require concessions that Kiev has so far refused to make. Several European NATO states, meanwhile, back Zelensky’s uncompromising stance. US President Donald Trump said this week that the Ukrainian leader “has to be realistic” about the situation and “start accepting things” his administration is offering.
Indeed Trump as a of a late Wednesday presser has not backed off his calls for Zelensky to quickly accept reality and sign a peace deal and prepare for elections.
Zelensky has said that while he's "ready" to organize and hold elections, it has to be done under safety, and that the international community must step up and help ensure this happens. He said he's ready to within 60 days if his government and external backers can offer a viable plan. But is he just buying time and pacifying Trump?
There's a possibility his own parliament could, under pressure, come back and say that elections are not a practical reality at this point. Likely Kiev will demand that Russia observe a ceasefire in order for the elections to take place .
Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/11/2025 - 11:25 Close
Thu, 11 Dec 2025 16:05:00 +0000 Affordability Crisis: Challenging The Poverty Line
Affordability Crisis: Challenging The Poverty Line
Affordability Crisis: Challenging The Poverty Line
Authored by Michael Lebowtiz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,
Michael Green, Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager at Simplify Asset Management, wrote a provocative Substack essay, Part 1: My Life Is A Lie , that is sparking a debate among economists and raising awareness of the affordability crisis. It’s not just the wonky economists debating the merits of his article; The Washington Post , CNN (News Central), FOX Business (Charles Payne), and social media are also critiquing it.
Michael uses the official poverty line calculation and what he deems the “Mathematical Valley” to help his readers better appreciate why affordability is becoming a hot topic.
The Poverty Line
Per Michael Green:
But there was one number I had somehow never interrogated. One number that I simply accepted, the way a child accepts gravity.
The poverty line.
I don’t know why. It seemed apolitical, an actuarial fact calculated by serious people in government offices. A line someone else drew decades ago that we use to define who is “poor,” who is “middle class,” and who deserves help. It was infrastructure—invisible, unquestioned, foundational.
This week, while trying to understand why the American middle class feels poorer each year despite healthy GDP growth and low unemployment, I came across a sentence buried in a research paper:
“The U.S. poverty line is calculated as three times the cost of a minimum food diet in 1963, adjusted for inflation.”
I read it again. Three times the minimum food budget.
I felt sick.
This article summarizes Michael Green’s perspective and opposing arguments regarding the poverty line. Bear in mind, as you read on, that there is no “right” poverty line. However, what Michael Green has successfully done is ignite a conversation about the large number of Americans who feel left behind economically and repeatedly raise affordability as a key political issue.
The 1963 Poverty Line Benchmark
Green’s analysis centers on the poverty line, which was established in the early 1960s by Mollie Orshansky. The original formula she developed was simple: take the cost of a basic basket of food for a family, multiply it by three (on the assumption that food accounted for about one-third of a household’s budget), and use that as the poverty threshold.
Her benchmark was then adjusted for inflation each year, but the underlying assumptions about household spending and needs haven’t been updated since. Per Green:
Orshansky’s food-times-three formula was crude, but as a crisis threshold—a measure of “too little”—it roughly corresponded to reality. A family spending one-third of its income on food would spend the other two-thirds on everything else, and those proportions more or less worked. Below that line, you were in genuine crisis. Above it, you had a fighting chance.
Notably, Green emphasizes that Orshansky’s poverty line served as a threshold. Those with incomes beneath this threshold were in crisis.
Orshanky’s Poverty Line Is Outdated
Green emphasizes the items we spend money on, and their costs compared to food prices have changed significantly since then. For example, he points out:
Housing costs as a percentage of income rose significantly.
Cell phones didn’t exist.
Healthcare costs have become the most significant expense for most families.
A second income became a necessity for many families after the formula was devised, leading to increased childcare expenses.
He also notes rising college and transportation costs.
Simply, feeding a family no longer constitutes a third of total family budgets. To wit, he states:
Housing now consumes 35 to 45 percent. Healthcare takes 15 to 25 percent. Childcare, for families with young children, can eat 20 to 40 percent.
Michael Green’s punchline:
Which means if you measured income inadequacy today the way Orshansky measured it in 1963, the threshold for a family of four wouldn’t be $31,200.
It would be somewhere between $130,000 and $150,000.
What does that tell you about the $31,200 line we still use?
It tells you we are measuring starvation.
Green’s Data Analysis
Green supports his theory with a basic family budget based on national averages. He applies it to a family earning the median household income of $80,000. The results, as we share below, cast significant doubt on the value of the current $31,200 poverty line. Furthermore, they argue that at least half of the nation is “living in deep poverty.” Per Green:
I wanted to see what would happen if I ignored the official stats and simply calculated the cost of existing. I built a Basic Needs budget for a family of four (two earners, two kids). No vacations, no Netflix, no luxury. Just the “Participation Tickets” required to hold a job and raise kids in 2024.
Using conservative, national-average data:
Childcare: $32,773
Housing: $23,267
Food: $14,717
Transportation: $14,828
Healthcare: $10,567
Other essentials: $21,857
Required net income: $118,009
Add federal, state, and FICA taxes of roughly $18,500, and you arrive at a required gross income of $136,500.
The graph below shows the cumulative price growth for $1,000 across many of the spending items Michael Green identifies above. As shown, except for transportation prices, all the others have significantly outpaced food prices. Thus, to Green’s point, a poverty line based on a steady price-consumption relationship for these goods and others in relation to food prices has become grossly ineffective.
Hedonics
Hedonics is a statistical method used by the BLS in the CPI report to distinguish pure price changes from changes in product quality and how those changes impact value.
For example, if a new laptop offers twice the performance at the same sticker price as an old one, hedonics treats that as a quality improvement and will record an effective price decline. Supporters say it prevents overstating inflation as products improve. In contrast, critics argue that it can understate inflation and relies on modeling choices that are impossible to validate.
Green is a critic. As we share below, he uses landline telephones and smartphones to make his point:
To function in 1955 society—to have a job, call a doctor, and be a citizen—you needed a telephone line. That “Participation Ticket” cost $5 a month.
Adjusted for standard inflation, that $5 should be $58 today.
But you cannot run a household in 2024 on a $58 landline. To function today—to factor authenticate your bank account, to answer work emails, to check your child’s school portal (which is now digital-only)—you need a smartphone plan and home broadband.
The cost of that “Participation Ticket” for a family of four is not $58. It’s $200 a month.
Green states that food prices, not hedonics, are the only primary factors used to compute the CPI for food. In his calculations, the rate of inflation across many other CPI items greatly exceeded the CPI’s reported rate, in part due to faulty hedonics.
Mathematical Valley
Michael Green introduces what he calls a “mathematical valley.” This idea illustrates a trap within the American economic system. The valley symbolizes the area where working families earn enough to lose government benefits but not enough to cover the actual cost of middle-class economic stability.
As families move from poverty into the lower middle class—usually earning between about $40,000 and $100,000—they lose access to safety net programs like food stamps, housing subsidies, or Medicaid. Still, their wages don’t keep up with the rising costs of housing, healthcare, childcare, and transportation. As a result, climbing the economic ladder can actually make families worse off financially because the loss of benefits outweighs the income gains.
This Valley creates a perverse incentive to stay poor or near-poor, traps millions in financial insecurity, and fuels widespread cynicism among the working poor who feel punished for trying to get ahead.
Green’s Summary
The Orshansky poverty line is based on the amount required to cover a minimum food budget times three. Since she developed her formula in 1963, the price of food has tracked below the broad CPI inflation rate. At the same time, many essential items have grown faster than food prices. To wit, food-at-home expenditures currently account for only 5 to 7 percent of spending, not the 33% assumed by Orshansky.
Therefore, because food prices are used as the basis for calculating the poverty line instead of a broader range of essential expenses, which have increased much more than food prices, the $31,200 poverty line is significantly understated. Additionally, the Mathematical Valley diminishes some incentives to earn more, thus resulting in affordability issues.
Arguing Against Green
While Michael Green makes a strong case that the poverty rate in this country is much higher than we think, and that affordability is becoming a hot topic, other opinions on Green’s article are worth considering. We summarize a few of them below.
Child Care Costs Exaggerated: While childcare is costly, it isn’t part of most budgets once their children are past the age of four or five.
Stuff is also cheaper: Green harps on things we buy that are more expensive, but some necessities, like clothing and electronics, are more affordable.
Real incomes are rising. While a good argument, it raises questions about whether CPI is a good indicator of actual costs.
What is the poverty line? To quote Alex Tabarrok of George Mason via the Washington Post: “He takes the poverty measure — and then turns it around and turns it into a middle-class measure,” Tabarrok said. “What do you need to be comfortable or thriving or middle class? Then, of course, you get a much bigger number. But to think that we today are living in some hellish landscape compared to our parents and even our grandparents is just a complete distortion of reality.”
Our Take- Summary
There isn’t a single inflation rate or poverty line. We live in a diverse country with many different regional economies. Also, families have unique needs and desires that can’t be summarized in one number. That said, no matter the poverty line, many American households are struggling.
Remember when Obama ran on “Change”? He was followed by Trump, who ran twice on a similar message. The economic system remains broken for many Americans, and they are voicing concerns about affordability in election polls and sentiment surveys. Look at the graph below. According to the University of Michigan, consumer sentiment is at its lowest point since at least 1960!
Of course, diagnosing the affordability problem and fixing it are two different things. But it’s hard to fix the problem without being aware of it. Hopefully, Michael Green’s article is raising enough debate and awareness on affordability to inspire action.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/11/2025 - 11:05 Close
Thu, 11 Dec 2025 15:25:00 +0000 An "Existential Crisis" To Close 2025
An "Existential Crisis" To Close 2025
By Michael Every of Rabobank
The Fed delivered what was expected – a 25bps rate cut to 3.75% and a deep public split over whether it should cut further because the labor market
Read more.....
An "Existential Crisis" To Close 2025
By Michael Every of Rabobank
The Fed delivered what was expected – a 25bps rate cut to 3.75% and a deep public split over whether it should cut further because the labor market is weakening or keep policy tight because inflation is too high. The Fed will also buy $40bn of T-Bills just after stopping QT, but this is not to be seen as QE, nor as having any impact on monetary policy - and QE was a neutral “asset swap”, not a balance sheet expansion that juiced asset prices. See here for the take of our US Strategist Philip Marey, who concludes that as Trump takes a firmer grip of the Fed ahead, rates are likely to fall more than some expect.
The ECB’s Lagarde spoke of “Europe's existential crisis ” and didn’t think the level of ECB rates could do anything about it. She underlined estimates that internal trade barriers due to national regulations on top of the EU’s own amount to an effective tariff of 110% on services and 60% on goods traded between member states. “Everybody wants to sugarcoat, gold-plate and do just a bit more,” yet on reforms, “There will be pushback from multiple corners… from people who say: ‘We’re very happy in our corner of Europe, leave us alone.’” (As ‘Teresa Ribera is ‘not interested in competition ,’ complains jilted Brussels bubble’ – but that didn’t stop the EU from just raiding China’s Temu over a foreign subsidy allegation .) Lagarde underlined the need for a transformative capital markets union and joint Eurobonds for defence funding, seeing this as opportunity.
The BoC left rates on hold at 2.25% and seems to think it’s done, yet admitted it‘s difficult to “assess the underlying momentum of the economy,” given US tariffs’ impact over time. See here for more from Molly Schwartz.
The RBA, hawkish on Tuesday, prompting market chatter of rate hikes in 2026 , will look at the jobs numbers today (-21.3K vs +20K expected) and perhaps rethink. But what of asset prices as the AFR notes, ‘Why this mum bought her 11-year-old son a townhouse .’ Only one ? Tsk!
Today, BoE Governor Bailey will testify to Parliament’s Covid Inquiry. Will we see questions about the Bank’s response, e.g., why didn’t it use macroprudential measures on mortgage lending at the same time as deep rate cuts and massive QE? There are key lessons to be learned for when the next, inevitable ‘nobody saw it coming’ crisis hits - will central banks have a clearer idea of what they are *for* by then?
Meanwhile, as so often reiterated here, the backdrop against which all central banks pretend to know what they’re doing is getting increasingly unpredictable.
In geoeconomics, Mexico imposed 50% tariffs on China and other Asian economies –exactly the Trump Plan we predicted: next, Canada(?) Against that backdrop, the USTR said he seeks a “constructive” reset on trade with China, which launched a satellite super factory to rival Starlink and added domestic AI chips to its official procurement list for the first time. However, Ford suppliers received China's new streamlined rare-earth licenses - but German automakers were notably excluded so far . Indonesia is resisting US trade demands on critical minerals and energy it sees risking its relations with China and Russia. On the other hand, India reportedly offered the US its ‘best-ever’ deal, as D.C. pushes farm access in trade negotiations, as the US Soybean association president meanwhile stated that Trump’s farm aid plan for them is “A band-aid on an open wound.” The UK’s PM also told Parliament that a return to the EU customs union would “unravel” new UK trade deals: yes, some things are zero sum. Trade can be one of them.
In geopolitics, US Representative Massie has introduced a bill to pull America out of NATO, which speaks to the times if not its likelihood of passage. It’s nonetheless noted that Trump’s recent verbal attacks on Europe will force it to speed up post-America defence plans , with belated recognition that the era of America’s “security guarantee” for Europe is over. It seems Europe will have to pay much more than it has budgeted for the military by 2035, and a lot sooner. That’s as a report suggested a parallel US National Security Strategy to split up the EU and establish a new global “C5” of the US, China, Russia, India, and Japan , leaving Europe out of the power loop.
Germany’s Chancellor Merz nonetheless underlined he still wants the US as partner, and if Trump "can't make sense of this institution or the structure of the EU," the US can still cooperate with member states, and “Germany is, of course, first and foremost one of them.” Divide et impera.
Regardless, the EU is pressing harder for the passage of its €210bn Ukraine loan scheme, which Lagarde says is now the “closest” to being legal so far - is that something compliance officers like hearing? She added the new version should reassure investors it “does not amount to confiscation” - but as this money is clearly not going to be given back to Russia, it’s unclear how. Indeed, Belgium is demanding an extra cash buffer as wergild against expected Russian retaliation against it and Euroclear. And that’s presuming retaliation stays in that dimension – the FT reports on fears of a wider Russian campaign of sabotage to infrastructure and businesses ahead, which potentially comes with its own cost in terms of lower growth and higher inflation.
Muddying the waters for the EU in terms of its desire to adhere to global institutions, the International Court of Justice granted Russia’s counterclaim in a genocide case vs Kyiv . The potential implication, according to some, is that any warfare can be genocide if civilians are involved. Elsewhere, the US threatened to sanction the International Criminal Court unless it promises not to prosecute President Trump.
In Latin America, the US seized an Iranian oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela after smuggling Nobel peace prize laureate Machado out of the country: she called for democracies to “fight for freedom,” which may not be metaphorical. In Brazil, a bill that could reduce ex-President Bolsonaro’s prison time has advanced in Congress. In Bolivia, leftist ex-president Arce was just arrested for corruption a month after leaving office. And China pledged foreign aid to the region with no “political conditions” – it seems the Western Hemisphere may be ideologically, if not physically, contested.
In the Indo-Pacific, China says it seeks a “fair and just maritime order” in the South China Sea, which it claims; the ongoing Japan-China spat is seen as having no off-ramp; a Telegraph report claims China’s hypersonic missiles would destroy the US Navy in a fight over Taiwan - as the US Navy Secretary called for a “wartime footing” in US weapons production ; and Thailand-Cambodia border fighting rages on as Trump signals he might try to intervene.
In the Middle East, there are reports of a build-up of US military jets heading towards the Middle East, as others say Iran has started mass production of ballistic missiles again . Trump will also delay unveiling his Gaza Board of Peace members until 2026, and it’s reported that the US is weighing hitting the UN Palestinian refugee agency UNWRA with terrorism-related sanctions.
If you think that’s too much information to fit into a Global Daily, try writing it(!) Moreover, consider this is just one day, in one week, in one month, in what has been a non-stop year for wild news headlines. 2026 doesn’t look like it’s going to get any easier. Quite the opposite, in fact.
You might not see it all as an existential crisis, just a ‘volatile trading backdrop’, but trying to keep up with just that part for readers can certainly prompt one for those who try!
Tyler Durden
Thu, 12/11/2025 - 10:25 Close