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Sun, 10 May 2026 03:20:00 +0000 How Governments, Corporations, & Technocratic Systems Are Quietly Redefining Ownership In The 21st Century
How Governments, Corporations, & Technocratic Systems Are Quietly Redefining Ownership In The 21st Century
How Governments, Corporations, & Technocratic Systems Are Quietly Redefining Ownership In The 21st Century
Authored by Milan Adams via PreppGroup,
There are periods in history when societies begin to discover that the liberties they believed to be permanent were, in reality, conditional arrangements tolerated only while they remained politically convenient. Across the Western world, governments are quietly expanding the legal and administrative mechanisms through which private land can be reclassified, restricted, absorbed, or transferred in the name of infrastructure, sustainability, industrial security, climate adaptation, and economic modernization. Entire farming regions are now being surveyed for carbon pipelines. Rural communities are facing unprecedented redevelopment pressure linked to energy transitions and semiconductor expansion. Financial institutions are purchasing strategic agricultural land at historic levels while policymakers openly discuss the restructuring of urban life around centralized digital systems. Officially, these transformations are described as progress. Unofficially, an increasing number of citizens have begun to suspect that the modern definition of ownership itself is being rewritten in real time.
The New Architecture of Property Seizure
The modern citizen has been conditioned to believe that private property represents one of the sacred foundations of liberal democracy. Constitutions defend it, political campaigns celebrate it, and economists routinely describe it as the engine of prosperity and social stability. Yet beneath the ceremonial rhetoric lies a more fragile reality — one in which ownership increasingly resembles a conditional administrative privilege rather than an untouchable natural right. This contradiction becomes impossible to ignore when examining the doctrine of eminent domain, the extraordinary legal authority through which governments may confiscate private property without the owner’s consent.
Supporters of eminent domain insist that such authority is indispensable for the functioning of modern civilization. Roads must be built, railways expanded, energy corridors connected, airports enlarged, water systems modernized, and industrial facilities constructed. In many cases, governments provide financial compensation to displaced owners, presenting the process as a rational exchange carried out for the collective benefit of society. Yet the deeper philosophical problem has never truly revolved around compensation. The more disturbing issue is whether property can genuinely be called “private” if the state ultimately reserves the authority to seize it whenever officials determine that a superior public or economic purpose exists.
Centuries ago, political philosopher John Locke articulated this contradiction with remarkable clarity in his Second Treatise of Civil Government , writing: “For I have truly no Property in that, which another can by right take from me, when he pleases against my Consent.” Locke understood that property rights and liberty are inseparable mechanisms. If ownership exists only so long as political authorities permit it, then freedom itself becomes conditional . A citizen whose property may be overridden by state power is not fully sovereign over the fruits of his labor, his land, or his future.
This philosophical tension has become increasingly visible throughout 2025 and 2026 as eminent domain controversies intensify across the United States and parts of Europe. The issue is no longer confined to highways and traditional public infrastructure. Governments are now invoking compulsory acquisition powers for semiconductor manufacturing facilities, renewable energy grids, carbon capture pipelines, smart-city redevelopment programs, affordable housing mandates, climate resilience projects, and strategic industrial corridors tied to geopolitical competition with China. What once appeared to be an exceptional legal mechanism reserved for rare circumstances is gradually evolving into a normalized instrument of economic planning.
The transformation accelerated dramatically after the controversial Supreme Court decision in Kelo v. City of New London in 2005, which expanded the interpretation of “public use” to include broader economic development objectives. The ruling effectively established that governments could seize private property and transfer it to private developers if officials believed the redevelopment project might generate greater economic productivity or increased tax revenue. Although the decision triggered national outrage, the long-term implications proved even more consequential than many observers initially realized. The ruling fundamentally altered the psychological relationship between citizens and ownership itself. Property was no longer protected solely because it belonged to an individual; it could now be reclassified according to projected economic utility.
Ironically, many of the promises surrounding the original New London redevelopment project collapsed. Large sections of the confiscated land remained undeveloped for years, becoming symbolic monuments to speculative planning failures. Yet rather than causing governments to retreat from expansive eminent domain practices, the ruling instead normalized a new political vocabulary capable of reframing coercive land acquisition in increasingly sophisticated ways. “Urban renewal” evolved into “smart growth.” “Industrial expansion” transformed into “strategic economic resilience.” “Environmental necessity” became “climate adaptation infrastructure.” The language softened while the underlying mechanism remained fundamentally unchanged.
One of the most explosive contemporary examples emerged from the construction of carbon dioxide pipelines across the American Midwest. These projects, promoted as essential components of future climate infrastructure, triggered fierce resistance from farmers and rural landowners who argued that their property rights were being subordinated to corporate and political agendas disguised as environmental policy. Summit Carbon Solutions initiated hundreds of legal actions connected to eminent domain disputes as officials and developers attempted to secure continuous pipeline corridors through privately owned agricultural land. For many rural communities, the issue transcended compensation entirely. Families feared not only environmental consequences involving groundwater and soil stability, but also the broader precedent being established through these forced acquisitions.
The backlash became politically severe enough that South Dakota eventually banned the use of eminent domain for carbon dioxide pipelines in 2025. The significance of this moment extended beyond the pipeline debate itself because it revealed a rapidly expanding distrust toward centralized planning institutions. Citizens increasingly sensed that environmental objectives were being used to justify extraordinary powers capable of overriding local autonomy and long-standing ownership traditions. While governments publicly framed such projects as indispensable for decarbonization and sustainable development, critics argued that the legal infrastructure being constructed around climate policy could eventually extend far beyond pipelines alone.
Many analysts dismiss these fears as exaggerated or conspiratorial. Nevertheless, the broader anxieties persist because governments and international organizations are already openly discussing policies involving managed retreat zones, climate adaptation corridors, AI-assisted urban planning systems, and expanded environmental land-use restrictions. Individually, each proposal appears administratively rational. Collectively, however, they begin to resemble the early architecture of a society in which ownership is increasingly subordinate to centralized optimization models designed around sustainability metrics, industrial planning objectives, and algorithmic governance systems.
The semiconductor industry has provided another revealing example of how geopolitical competition is reshaping the balance between state authority and individual property rights. In New York, a massive semiconductor manufacturing expansion connected to a multibillion-dollar industrial initiative displaced elderly homeowners whose land had been targeted for redevelopment. Officials justified the project as strategically indispensable for national security and technological independence, particularly amid intensifying tensions between the United States and China over advanced chip production. Within such frameworks, resistance from individual landowners becomes politically inconvenient because industrial competitiveness itself is treated as a permanent national emergency requiring extraordinary intervention.
This represents a profound transformation in the logic of democratic governance. Historically, governments expanded coercive authority during visible wars or catastrophic crises. Today, however, economic competition itself increasingly functions as a perpetual justification for exceptional state power. Artificial intelligence infrastructure requires enormous data centers. Data centers require energy corridors and water access. Energy corridors require land consolidation. Strategic manufacturing requires zoning flexibility and rapid acquisition mechanisms. Under these conditions, private property gradually becomes an obstacle to national planning objectives rather than a protected sphere of individual autonomy.
The emotional dimension of this conflict becomes especially visible when examining multigenerational farmland disputes. Across several states, families cultivating the same land for over a century have found themselves confronting eminent domain proceedings connected to rail expansions, renewable energy projects, housing mandates, and transportation corridors. These confrontations reveal a deeper philosophical fracture embedded within modern governance systems. Technocratic institutions increasingly evaluate land through the lens of utility maximization, calculating value according to projected tax revenue, housing density targets, industrial productivity, environmental compliance metrics, or strategic infrastructure potential. Within such frameworks, land ceases to represent permanence, inheritance, or identity and instead becomes a movable economic variable inside a larger administrative equation.
Families, however, tend to perceive property through an entirely different moral architecture. A farm cultivated across generations is not merely acreage measured in market value, just as a family home cannot be reduced to a line inside a municipal redevelopment blueprint. These places often embody continuity, memory, sacrifice, and personal sovereignty in ways financial compensation can never adequately replace. This growing collision between technocratic optimization and emotional permanence is rapidly becoming one of the defining political tensions of the twenty-first century.
What makes the situation particularly volatile is the emergence of a broader economic philosophy that increasingly treats ownership itself as inefficient when compared to centralized management systems. A growing number of political theorists and economic critics have begun describing this transformation as a form of neo-feudalism — not a literal return to medieval structures, but rather the gradual replacement of independent ownership with conditional access controlled by interconnected institutional authorities. Under such systems, citizens may still possess legal titles, mortgages, or deeds, yet ultimate control over property becomes layered beneath zoning commissions, environmental agencies, taxation systems, redevelopment authorities, financial institutions, insurance corporations, and emergency regulatory powers capable of overriding individual autonomy whenever larger policy objectives demand intervention.
The implications of this shift become even more unsettling when viewed alongside the accelerating digitization of governance. Across the Western world, governments and international organizations have proposed integrating land registries with digital identity systems, smart contracts, environmental compliance monitoring, and AI-assisted administrative oversight. Publicly, these innovations are framed as modernization efforts designed to reduce fraud, improve efficiency, and streamline urban planning. Critics, however, fear that such systems could eventually create the infrastructure for unprecedented levels of centralized influence over property rights, particularly if future economic or climate emergencies are used to justify extraordinary intervention measures.
While many of the more apocalyptic theories surrounding these developments remain speculative, the underlying anxieties persist because citizens can already observe partial versions of these dynamics emerging in real time through environmental zoning restrictions, mass institutional acquisition of farmland, algorithmic insurance risk assessments, and increasingly aggressive redevelopment policies carried out under the language of sustainability and economic necessity. Even in the absence of a coordinated conspiracy, the cumulative effect can still produce the same practical outcome: the gradual erosion of truly independent ownership.
Regions Increasingly Targeted by Strategic Redevelopment and Land Acquisition Pressures
Midwest agricultural corridors in Iowa, Nebraska, and South Dakota connected to carbon pipeline expansion projects and renewable infrastructure routes.
Semiconductor development zones in New York, Arizona, and Texas where strategic manufacturing initiatives are accelerating property acquisition and rezoning procedures.
Coastal regions in California, Florida, and parts of the Gulf Coast increasingly affected by climate adaptation planning, insurance withdrawal crises, and managed retreat discussions.
Rural farmland sectors across Illinois, Indiana, and Kansas experiencing rapid institutional investment linked to future food security and energy transition strategies.
Urban redevelopment districts in cities such as Atlanta, Chicago, and Philadelphia where “blight” designations and smart-city modernization programs have intensified displacement concerns.
Transportation and logistics corridors surrounding major inland freight hubs, particularly near Dallas-Fort Worth, Memphis, and Kansas City, where industrial optimization projects continue expanding aggressively.
Water-resource regions in the American Southwest where future scarcity projections are beginning to influence zoning policy, agricultural rights, and long-term land valuation models.
As these pressures intensify, the political meaning of ownership itself may continue evolving in ways previous generations would have considered unthinkable. The central issue is no longer limited to whether governments possess the authority to seize property under extraordinary circumstances. The more consequential question involves how frequently those circumstances are now being redefined and expanded to accommodate increasingly ambitious economic, technological, environmental, and geopolitical objectives.
The modern world increasingly celebrates efficiency as the supreme organizing principle of civilization. Governments pursue efficient transportation systems, efficient energy transitions, efficient housing density models, efficient industrial logistics, and efficient urban management structures powered by predictive algorithms and centralized data analysis. Yet liberty has never been efficient. Genuine freedom often depends upon the existence of friction — the ability of individuals to refuse, resist, delay, negotiate, or preserve spaces outside the reach of centralized planning systems.
The farmer who refuses to sell ancestral land, the homeowner resisting redevelopment pressure, the rancher opposing compulsory easements, and the family preserving generational property despite extraordinary financial offers all represent forms of resistance against the growing belief that economic optimization should supersede personal sovereignty. From a purely technocratic perspective, such resistance appears irrational because it slows development and complicates large-scale planning objectives. From a liberty-centered perspective, however, these acts preserve the final boundary separating ownership from conditional occupancy.
In this sense, the debate surrounding eminent domain extends far beyond legal procedure or infrastructure policy. It touches the deeper philosophical foundation of democratic civilization itself. A society in which property exists only until authorities identify a superior administrative use gradually transforms ownership into permission rather than right. Once that transition occurs, liberty itself begins losing the permanence required for true independence. The danger may not emerge suddenly through overt authoritarianism, but incrementally through layers of regulation, emergency policy, technological integration, and economic planning that slowly redefine the relationship between citizens and the spaces they once believed belonged entirely to them.
The long-term consequences of this transformation may become even more profound as artificial intelligence, predictive governance systems, and centralized economic planning begin converging into a single administrative framework. During previous centuries, governments lacked the technological capacity to monitor property usage, energy consumption, environmental compliance, financial behavior, demographic movement, and land productivity in real time. That limitation functioned as an invisible restraint on centralized authority. Modern states, however, are rapidly acquiring precisely these capabilities through satellite surveillance, digital registries, biometric identification systems, AI-assisted analytics, and integrated financial technologies capable of processing enormous volumes of behavioral data simultaneously.
This technological convergence has introduced a new political phenomenon that many citizens still underestimate: the replacement of reactive governance with anticipatory governance. Traditional democratic systems generally responded to visible crises after they emerged. Contemporary institutions increasingly attempt to predict and preempt future economic, environmental, or infrastructural disruptions before they fully materialize. In theory, such predictive governance promises efficiency and stability. In practice, it creates conditions under which governments may justify extraordinary interventions based not on present realities, but on statistical projections, algorithmic forecasting, and speculative risk assessments.
This distinction is critical because speculative governance dramatically expands the potential scope of eminent domain and administrative land control. A government no longer needs to demonstrate that land is immediately necessary for an existing public project. It may instead argue that future climate migration patterns, projected energy shortages, demographic shifts, industrial competition, water scarcity, or strategic economic vulnerabilities justify preemptive territorial restructuring decades in advance. Under such conditions, ownership becomes vulnerable not only to current policy objectives but also to predictive models generated by institutions whose assumptions may themselves remain politically contested.
The implications become especially significant when examining the emerging relationship between climate policy and territorial governance. Across North America and Europe, policymakers increasingly discuss the concept of “climate resilience corridors,” managed retreat zones, adaptive infrastructure networks, and carbon-neutral urban restructuring. Publicly, these proposals are presented as rational responses to environmental instability. Yet critics argue that the language surrounding climate adaptation is gradually normalizing the idea that governments may eventually redesign entire regions according to sustainability criteria determined by centralized planning authorities rather than local communities.
Several environmental planning documents have already explored scenarios involving the relocation of populations away from vulnerable coastal areas, the consolidation of agricultural production into designated efficiency zones, and the expansion of urban density models designed to reduce transportation emissions. None of these proposals necessarily constitute authoritarian conspiracies in themselves. Nevertheless, they reveal an ideological trajectory in which land is increasingly treated as a strategic administrative asset subject to optimization rather than as a decentralized foundation of individual autonomy.
This broader transformation also intersects with the accelerating financialization of property markets. Over the past decade, institutional investors, multinational asset management firms, pension funds, and corporate real-estate conglomerates have acquired unprecedented quantities of residential housing, farmland, and strategic infrastructure-linked territory throughout the Western world. In many regions, ordinary citizens now compete against entities possessing virtually unlimited liquidity and long-term strategic acquisition models. Critics increasingly fear that this trend is creating a bifurcated society in which large institutions accumulate permanent ownership while ordinary populations transition toward perpetual rental dependency.
The psychological effects of this shift are already visible among younger generations. Homeownership, once considered a realistic milestone of adulthood, has become unattainable for millions due to escalating property prices, speculative investment patterns, and declining purchasing power. As ownership recedes, dependence on institutional landlords, subscription-based living models, and centralized service ecosystems intensifies. What previous generations viewed as temporary economic hardship may actually represent the early stages of a more permanent structural transition away from widespread independent ownership.
Some economic futurists openly defend this transition, arguing that access-based economies are more flexible, sustainable, and technologically compatible with modern urban life. According to this perspective, citizens no longer require permanent ownership because digital platforms can provide transportation, housing, entertainment, labor, and consumption through integrated subscription ecosystems. Yet critics counter that access and ownership are fundamentally different forms of social power. Ownership creates autonomy, while access remains conditional upon continued institutional approval and financial compliance. A citizen who owns nothing substantial becomes increasingly vulnerable to economic disruption, policy changes, financial censorship, algorithmic exclusion, or shifting regulatory standards.
This concern has intensified dramatically following the expansion of digital financial surveillance systems and programmable payment technologies. Several governments and central banks have explored the future implementation of central bank digital currencies capable of integrating transactions into highly centralized financial architectures. Officially, such systems are promoted as tools for efficiency, anti-fraud enforcement, and economic modernization. However, skeptics fear that combining centralized financial control with digitized property systems could eventually create unprecedented leverage over individual autonomy. If property rights, taxation, energy consumption, environmental compliance, banking access, and digital identity become interconnected within unified administrative systems, then ownership itself may become increasingly conditional upon behavioral conformity.
While some of the more apocalyptic narratives surrounding these developments undoubtedly exaggerate the immediacy of such scenarios, the broader structural trajectory remains difficult to ignore. Governments across the world are steadily increasing their reliance on integrated digital oversight mechanisms. Corporations are accumulating strategic physical assets at extraordinary rates. Artificial intelligence systems are becoming embedded within regulatory decision-making processes. Climate policy is expanding into territorial planning. Economic competition is increasingly framed as a permanent emergency requiring centralized coordination. Each development, considered individually, appears manageable. Collectively, however, they form a landscape in which traditional concepts of private ownership may become progressively diluted over time.
The cultural consequences of this evolution could prove as significant as the legal and economic consequences. Property ownership historically functioned not merely as a financial asset, but as a psychological foundation for citizenship itself. Individuals who possessed land, homes, farms, or independent businesses generally maintained stronger incentives to participate in civic life, resist political overreach, and preserve local community structures. Ownership cultivated permanence, and permanence fostered responsibility toward future generations.
By contrast, highly transient populations dependent upon rental systems and centralized infrastructure often develop weaker attachments to local institutions and reduced capacity for long-term independence. A society dominated by temporary access arrangements rather than enduring ownership may gradually become more politically passive, economically fragile, and administratively manageable . In such environments, governments and corporations acquire increasing influence not necessarily through overt coercion, but through structural dependency.
This dynamic helps explain why eminent domain debates provoke such intense emotional reactions even among citizens who never expect their own property to be seized directly. At an instinctive level, many people recognize that the issue transcends infrastructure policy entirely. The struggle concerns whether there remains any sphere of life genuinely insulated from centralized authority. If property can ultimately be overridden whenever sufficient political, economic, environmental, or technological justification emerges, then ownership itself risks becoming symbolic rather than substantive.
The modern political class frequently frames these tensions as conflicts between progress and obstruction. Citizens resisting redevelopment projects are often portrayed as impediments to modernization, sustainability, affordability, or economic growth. Yet this framing deliberately ignores the philosophical role private property has historically played within free societies. Property rights were never designed solely to maximize economic efficiency. They existed partly to limit concentrations of power by ensuring that individuals retained independent zones of autonomy resistant to political centralization.
The erosion of those protections rarely occurs through sudden authoritarian decrees. More often, it unfolds gradually through administrative normalization. Each new exception appears temporary. Each emergency justification appears rational. Each expansion of authority appears narrowly tailored to a specific crisis. Over time, however, the cumulative effect can fundamentally redefine the relationship between citizens and the state without any single revolutionary moment ever occurring.
History repeatedly demonstrates that societies often fail to recognize transformative shifts while they are happening. Citizens adapt incrementally to changes that previous generations would have considered extraordinary. Policies initially introduced during emergencies become permanent. Temporary surveillance becomes normalized infrastructure. Exceptional powers evolve into ordinary administrative procedures. By the time the broader transformation becomes fully visible, institutional momentum may already be deeply entrenched.
This is precisely why contemporary property-rights debates deserve far greater scrutiny than they currently receive. The issue is not simply whether governments occasionally require land for legitimate public projects. Every complex civilization inevitably faces situations involving infrastructure development and competing territorial interests. The deeper concern involves the accelerating expansion of the philosophical categories capable of justifying compulsory acquisition and centralized territorial management.
Today, governments invoke eminent domain and land restrictions for highways, carbon pipelines, renewable energy corridors, semiconductor facilities, affordable housing mandates, environmental adaptation projects, logistics hubs, and industrial modernization zones. Tomorrow, additional categories may emerge involving AI infrastructure, water rationing systems, food-security corridors, demographic redistribution planning, or automated transportation networks. As technological complexity increases, the temptation for centralized optimization will likely intensify alongside it.
Yet civilizations ultimately face a profound choice between efficiency and autonomy. A perfectly optimized society may achieve extraordinary administrative coordination while simultaneously eroding the independent spaces necessary for genuine liberty. Conversely, a society committed to preserving strong property rights inevitably accepts a degree of inefficiency because decentralized ownership creates friction against centralized planning. That friction is not a flaw within free societies; it is often their primary safeguard against excessive concentration of power.
The future of property rights may therefore determine far more than real-estate law or zoning policy. It may shape the very architecture of citizenship in the twenty-first century. Whether individuals remain sovereign owners with meaningful independence or gradually transition into highly managed participants within centralized administrative ecosystems could become one of the defining political questions of the coming era.
And perhaps that is the most unsettling aspect of the entire debate: the possibility that the transformation is not arriving through dramatic revolution, military force, or visible dictatorship, but through a slow and highly sophisticated convergence of technology, economic planning, environmental policy, financial centralization, and administrative normalization that redefines ownership so gradually that many citizens may not fully recognize the implications until the older understanding of liberty has already faded into history.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 05/09/2026 - 23:20 Close
Sun, 10 May 2026 02:45:00 +0000 Chinese EVs Absent From U.S. Roads, But Parts Under The Hood Are Alarming
Chinese EVs Absent From U.S. Roads, But Parts Under The Hood Are Alarming
For good reason, U.S. policymakers have resisted opening the domestic auto market to a flood of cheap, gasoline-powered Chinese cars and EVs. Such a move woul
Read more.....
Chinese EVs Absent From U.S. Roads, But Parts Under The Hood Are Alarming
For good reason, U.S. policymakers have resisted opening the domestic auto market to a flood of cheap, gasoline-powered Chinese cars and EVs. Such a move would crush Detroit into even more misery. It would accelerate the hollowing out of the nation's industrial base (something Europe willingly did ), further degrade suppliers, and weaken the country's ability to convert truck production lines to tank production in wartime.
However, while Chinese-made cars remain absent from U.S. highways, there has been a flood of Chinese auto parts, from airbags to transmissions to starters to steering systems and many other components, according to a new Wall Street Journal report citing data from consulting firm AlixPartners.
According to AlixPartners data, Chinese companies hold ownership stakes in about 10,000 suppliers nationwide. The exposure is an eye-opener for lawmakers, as the urgency to decouple critical supply chains from China remains a national security priority under the Trump administration.
"They're [China] deeply integrated into the industry," Michael Dunne, CEO of automotive consulting firm Dunne Insights, told the outlet.
Examples of this alarming deep integration include Ford's Mustang GT, which uses a six-speed manual transmission from China; Toyota's Prius plug-in hybrid, with about 15% of parts sourced from China; and GM's Chevrolet Trax, Blazer EV, and Equinox EV, which contain approximately 20% Chinese parts.
Several automakers have been dialing back their parts exposure to China in recent years. Tesla has required suppliers to remove China-made components from U.S.-built vehicles, while GM says China now accounts for less than 3% of its direct material spending for U.S.-made cars. Still, government data show that at least 40 models for sale in the U.S. have alarmingly high levels of Chinese components.
What's increasingly clear is that over the last 15 years, Beijing has been taking aggressive market share in the global auto market to become a dominant player. AlixPartners data show that in 2012, only one Chinese company ranked among the world's top 100 auto suppliers. Now that figure is expected to reach 22 by 2030.
Lawmakers have been briefed about ways to eliminate Chinese auto parts from the U.S. market, which has only put pressure on the domestic supplier network.
In late April, more than 50 House Republicans, led by Rep. Mike Kelly (R., Pa.), penned a letter to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, urging them to block Chinese automotive and battery companies from manufacturing in the U.S.
Juergen Simon, a partner at AlixPartners, told the outlet, "This shows the incredible speed at which the competitive environment has changed." He noted that Chinese suppliers were once avoided due to concerns about quality and performance, but that is no longer the case.
The race to clean up decades of globalism that crushed America's industrial core is well underway with the Trump administration. It appears the move to rebuild the nation's auto supplier network and eliminate China from that ecosystem could be nearing.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 05/09/2026 - 22:45 Close
Sun, 10 May 2026 02:10:00 +0000 4 Key Points From New White House Counter-Terror Strategy
4 Key Points From New White House Counter-Terror Strategy
4 Key Points From New White House Counter-Terror Strategy
Authored by Ryan Morgan via The Epoch Times,
President Donald Trump’s administration rolled out its new counterterrorism strategy overview on May 6, articulating recent policy shifts and new pledges going forward.
The 16-page strategy guide seeks to articulate an “America First” approach to dealing with militants, extremists, and criminal enterprises.
“For the 25th Anniversary of the 9/11 terror attacks, America has returned to a common sense and reality-based Counterterrorism Strategy,” the document states.
“President Trump has [effected] a complete revision of how we defeat threats to America predicated on national sovereignty and civilizational confidence and the objective of destroying the groups who would kill Americans or hurt our interests as a free nation.”
Here are four key points in the new strategy rollout.
Violent Left-Wing Groups Fall Under Expanded Counterterror Scope
The new strategy document articulates a widened aperture for U.S. counterterrorism efforts.
“We face new categories and combinations of violent actors that make the established ways of doing counterterrorism insufficient or obsolete,” the document reads.
Although U.S. counterterror efforts have long focused on threats posed by radical Islamist groups, the new strategy document also lists “violent left-wing extremists” and “narcoterrorists and transnational gangs” among the top three major categories of terror groups.
The Trump administration has already taken steps to apply counterterrorism authorities to violent left-wing groups and ideological movements that oppose the American way of life as outlined in the founding documents.
In November 2025, the U.S. State Department designated four violent transnational left-wing groups as foreign terrorist organizations.
Trump previously issued an executive order declaring Antifa a domestic terrorist organization, although U.S. law currently provides no domestic equivalent to a foreign terrorist organization designation.
Antifa members gather to demonstrate following the announcement of the results of the first round of the presidential election, in Nantes, France, on April 23, 2017. Jean-Sebastien Evrard/AFP via Getty Images
“Our national [counterterrorism] activities will also prioritize the rapid identification and neutralization of violent secular political groups whose ideology is anti-American, radically pro-transgender, and anarchist,” the document states.
“We will use all the tools constitutionally available to us to map them at home, identify their membership, map their ties to international organizations like Antifa, and use law enforcement tools to cripple them operationally before they can maim or kill the innocent.”
The document, at one point, describes a so-called Red-Green alliance of deepening alignment between far-left and Islamist movements.
Focus Shifting to the Western Hemisphere
The move to list cartels and transnational gangs as a leading terror threat category aligns with a broader effort to shift the focus of U.S. counterterror operations to the Western Hemisphere.
“Our Strategy first prioritizes the neutralization of hemispheric terror threats by incapacitating cartel operations until these groups are incapable of bringing their drugs, their members, and their trafficked victims into the United States,” the document reads.
Since the start of Trump’s second term, the State Department has added 15 Latin American and Caribbean cartels and criminal gangs to its list of foreign terrorist organizations.
In September 2025, U.S. military forces began conducting lethal strikes on what officials said were confirmed drug trafficking boats operating in the Caribbean Sea, and later in the Eastern Pacific. Those lethal strikes have continued in the months since.
The U.S. Southern Command reported its most recent strike on a drug boat on May 5. Three people were killed in the strike.
Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores (rear), are escorted by federal agents after landing at a Manhattan helipad, as they make their way into an armored car en route to a federal courthouse in New York City on Jan. 5, 2026. XNY/Star Max/GC Images
U.S. forces also carried out a special operations raid on Venezuela on Jan. 3 to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and bring him to the United States to face criminal prosecution on charges related to drug trafficking and narco-terrorism.
The new strategy document explicitly lists countering leading Islamic extremist groups as its second-highest priority. The document said the top five Islamist groups are al-Qaeda, al-Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula, ISIS, ISIS-Khorasan, which is active in central and south Asia, and the Muslim Brotherhood.
Expanding Resources and Partnerships
Overall, the new strategy document describes an effort to reinvigorate counterterrorism efforts under Trump’s tenure. That includes allocating additional domestic resources and bolstering international partnerships.
The document described the move to designate cartels and other transnational gangs as foreign terrorist organizations as one such step “to make available additional intelligence authorities and deny and disrupt their financial streams and access to the United States.”
Trump is the first U.S. president to apply formal terror designations to such groups and free up counterterrorism authorities to address their activities.
In March, U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth signed a multilateral security cooperation agreement for the Western Hemisphere with 16 counterparts across Latin America and the Caribbean. The agreement included a commitment to join “a coalition to combat narco-terrorism and other shared threats” in the region.
Sonora State Police officers conduct an operation in the deserts of Sonora, Mexico, on April 15, 2025. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times
“President Trump has ushered in a new dawn of burdenshifting, and now is the time to work more aggressively with partners to crush lingering terrorist threats to the United States,” the new counterterrorism strategy document states.
The new document also described the use of diplomatic, financial, cyber, and covert actions to support counterterrorism efforts.
The administration said counterterrorism efforts also include “aggressive information operations to demoralize terror organizations and undermine their anti-American and anti-Western propaganda.”
“We have assets outside the realms of hard security in the informational space that were allowed to atrophy in recent years or were used for partisan political purposes,“ the document states. ”These were previously de-weaponized and must now be reinvigorated to demoralize and delegitimize terror threat groups and their enablers.”
Pledge for Apolitical, Evidence-Based Approach
Although the new counterterrorism guide elevates violent left-wing extremists to one of the three major groups responsible for perpetrating terror against the United States, the strategy document articulates a pledge to guard against counterterrorism authorities being abused for political ends.
“Our counterterrorism operations will be executed apolitically and founded upon reality-based threat assessments,” the document states.
“Our counterterrorism powers will not be used to target our fellow Americans who simply disagree with us. We will not permit the weaponization of America’s unparalleled CT capabilities for partisan purposes and in contravention of every American’s God-given rights.”
Members of the FBI knock on the doors of neighbors of a home associated with the suspected White House Correspondents’ Dinner shooter in Torrance, Calif., on April 26, 2026. Patrick T. Fallon/AFP
The strategy document described U.S. counterterrorism efforts under Trump’s predecessor—President Joe Biden—as being directed against conservatives, Christians, and parents protesting policy changes at school boards.
“Millions of Americans have lost confidence in the rectitude of the most powerful elements of our Federal government; the national security apparatus of the United States,” the document reads.
“That confidence can only be won back when counterterrorism is executed uninfected by politics, and if those who used their counterterrorism powers as a weapon against the innocent pay the full judicial cost for their crimes against the civil rights of innocent Americans.”
Tyler Durden
Sat, 05/09/2026 - 22:10 Close
Sun, 10 May 2026 01:35:00 +0000 Cameco Sees As Many As 20 AP1000 Nuclear Reactors On The Horizon
Cameco Sees As Many As 20 AP1000 Nuclear Reactors On The Horizon
Cameco leadership recently made announcements during their 2026Q1 earnings call regarding an expectation that as many as 20 AP1000 reactors will be announced f
Read more.....
Cameco Sees As Many As 20 AP1000 Nuclear Reactors On The Horizon
Cameco leadership recently made announcements during their 2026Q1 earnings call regarding an expectation that as many as 20 AP1000 reactors will be announced for construction with support from the Department of Commerce (DOC) and the Department of Energy (DOE).
Grant Isaac, the Chief Operating Officer and President of Cameco, provided some color on the call for the difference between the different department efforts and the stages of discussions under each.
We covered the announcement from the DOC at length last fall, providing details on the $80 billion agreement between the US government, Brookfield and Cameco to deploy up to 10 AP1000 reactors across the US.
Few updates have been given to this program so far. But Isaac comments that the “project continues to move along”. The efforts under the DOC contract appear to be focused on “long lead items that are required in order to stand” up a fleet of large reactors.
Considering the domestic and global supply chain outside of China and Russia has been more focused on sustainment and decommissioning, there is currently a lack of capacity across all the involved companies to build multiple reactors a year.
The sole-producer of the reactor cooling pumps for Westinghouse AP1000 reactor plants, Curtiss-Wright, recently remarked that they only have capacity to produce enough pumps for three to four reactors per year . Significant expansion efforts will be required to remove deployment roadblocks for multiple different systems and components.
Another question trying to be answered under the DOC program is under what model the reactors could be built. Isaac says. Isaac said, “those models could be a range of things from a federal build, own and operate to a federal build-own transfer model all the way to perhaps a financing of an existing nuclear operator who simply is just looking for financing.”
But the ten large reactors being pursued under the DOC plan are apparently completely separate from as many as ten reactors that are being pursued under the DOE.
There are a number of utilities progressing towards the construction of pairs of AP1000 reactors, with “five or six of them in very advanced stages ”. These utilities are coordinating with the DOE and the Office of Energy Dominance Financing to secure loans for the projects, as well as potentially ordering long lead items ahead of time.
“So when you step back and look at it, the U.S. isn't just talking about potentially 10 reactors under the DOC program. They’re potentially telling about another 10 under the DOE more traditional approach.”
Tyler Durden
Sat, 05/09/2026 - 21:35 Close
Sun, 10 May 2026 01:00:00 +0000 Trump Congratulates Incoming Iraqi Leader, Who Moves To Disarm Pro-Iran Militias
Trump Congratulates Incoming Iraqi Leader, Who Moves To Disarm Pro-Iran Militias
Trump Congratulates Incoming Iraqi Leader, Who Moves To Disarm Pro-Iran Militias
Via The Cradle
A committee comprising three senior Iraqi figures is close to finalizing an "executive plan" to disarm factions within the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) that enjoy support from Iran , Asharq Al-Awsat reported on 8 May.
Development of the plan, which will be presented to US officials in the next few days, comes amid expected changes to the leadership of key security agencies under the incoming government of Ali al-Zaidi .
Trump congratulates Iraq PM nominee Ali al-Zaidi, eyes stronger ties
Zaidi was nominated by the Shia-majority Coordination Framework (CF) political bloc on April 27 as the consensus candidate to succeed Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani . According to sources speaking to the Saudi newspaper, the three-member committee includes Zaidi, Sudani, and the leader of the Badr Organization, Hadi al-Amiri.
Washington has intensified pressure on Iraq's ruling Shia political parties to disarm the anti-terrorist militias and prevent their representatives from participating in the new government.
The sources revealed that the committee has held secret negotiations with leaders of the factions, providing their leaders with "ideas on how to disarm and integrate fighters."
Sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Badr Organization leader Amiri, who enjoys close relations with Iran, "was supposed to help build trust with the factions and persuade them to engage with the state." However, some meetings "did not proceed calmly" due to the request to disarm .
A spokesperson for one faction within the PMF said that Kataib Hezbollah, Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada, and Harakat al-Nujaba rejected handing over their weapons to any party whatsoever . The spokesperson, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the three factions were "prepared to pay any price resulting from their refusal to disarm."
The PMF were created in 2014 with support from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force to fight ISIS and were later formally incorporated into the Iraqi armed forces.
During the war between the US and Iran that began on 28 February, the US air force bombed PMF positions across the country, while the resistance factions carried out drone attacks against US bases in the Iraqi Kurdistan Region (IKR) and the US embassy in Baghdad.
In a phone call last Wednesday, US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth reportedly told Zaidi that Washington that the legitimacy of his incoming government would depend on its ability to distance the armed factions from the apparatus of the state.
A senior political official told Asharq Al-Awsat that the three-man committee had, under mounting US pressure, accelerated its work in recent weeks to disarm the factions. The official added that the executive plan included restructuring the PMF and ensuring it hands over its heavy and medium weapons, while the US is pressuring Baghdad to disband the PMF entirely.
Asharq Al-Awsat reported that former US General David Petraeus may visit Baghdad this week to ensure that "the new government fully severs its ties with the armed factions.
Petraeus, who holds no formal government position currently, commanded the 101st Airborne Division during the 2003 invasion that toppled the government of Saddam Hussein. He later became CIA director, overseeing the covert war in Syria in partnership with Al-Qaeda.
In 2004, he worked with some of the leaders of the Iran-backed armed factions, including Hadi al-Amiri, to establish a new Iraqi police force after Iraq's army and police were disbanded by the US occupation head, Paul Bremer.
Iraqi police commandos operating under Petraeus and Iraq's Ministry of Interior, in particular the Wolf Brigade, were known for abducting, killing, and torturing Sunni Muslims . Some of the police commandos were trained by US commander James Steele, who was known for running death squads in El Salvador in the 1980's.
On Friday, Republican Party member Malik Francis told Shafaq News Agency that the US administration "appears so far to be cautious in its dealings with Ali al-Zaidi, but it is not showing a direct hostile stance towards him."
Francis stated that Washington is not yet giving Zaidi a "blank check," but at the same time, it is not treating him as an adversary . On Thursday, the US Treasury Department announced it had imposed new sanctions on a list of Iraqi individuals and companies for their alleged connection to Iran.
Politicians from the CF said the sanctions may have been intended to "block undesirable nominations" to posts in the new government and "steer the process toward other candidates."
The PMU factions are reportedly exploring the possibility of avoiding direct participation in the new government, while backing figures described as independent for ministerial positions to maintain indirect influence over those posts.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 05/09/2026 - 21:00 Close
Sun, 10 May 2026 00:25:00 +0000 "Exponentially Deteriorating": Baltimore's Lawlessness Spreads Into Suburbs As Democrats Lose Control
"Exponentially Deteriorating": Baltimore's Lawlessness Spreads Into Suburbs As Democrats Lose Control
Maryland is one of many blue states that have transformed into a failed progressive experiment, where net migration flows are ne
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"Exponentially Deteriorating": Baltimore's Lawlessness Spreads Into Suburbs As Democrats Lose Control
Maryland is one of many blue states that have transformed into a failed progressive experiment, where net migration flows are negative as productive, working-class taxpayers flee the state, not just because of high taxes and the power bill crisis, but also because they've had enough of left-wing politicians and their failed criminal justice and social reforms that have fueled a decade of violent crime chaos .
We've extensively covered more than a decade of violent crime, riots, population collapse , and the exodus of taxpayers and businesses from imploding Baltimore City, which has been hit hard by a commercial real estate crisis in parts of the downtown area. But rarely have we focused on Baltimore County, just north of the city, where, yet again, left-wing politicians who masquerade as competent managers but are merely DEI activists have unleashed years of lawlessness through failed policies.
FOX45 News spoke with Mickey Hoppert, a retired sergeant with the Baltimore County Police Department who has spent more than two decades on the force, warned about the lawlessness of juveniles in the Towson metro area:
I wouldn't say that it's out of control, but it's getting there. Baltimore County is slowly, actually it's not slowly, it's exponentially deteriorating , and there are more and more pockets of bad elements coming into the county and wreaking havoc.
Hoppert identified Towson as a major hub for juveniles to meet up and cause chaos over the last ten years.
"It's easy access here," he said. "Bus lines come here. Friends and family can bring them here ."
He pointed out that current juvenile laws in the deeply blue county do not support officers and have been nothing but demotivating towards the department.
"When I say nobody supporting them, I mean the judicial system, the judges, they're not supporting them because the laws don't allow them to . The newer laws that have been enacted by lawmakers," Hoppert said. "Revamp the laws. Go back in and look at the laws and see what they can do to change them and make them more, more beneficial to the public and actually make it so that there is a consequence for the action that the juvenile commits."
VIDEO
The current reading of population data in Baltimore County indicates it has lost population since 2020. The decline is modest, but it shows that population growth is quickly losing momentum as residents flee not just the county, but the state, seeking common-sense politicians in red states that offer low taxes and law and order .
At the state level, the failures are piling up for left-wing Gov. Wes Moore , whose polling data has sunk and alarmed the Democratic Party. The governor faces an ongoing trust issue with voters as Sinclair Broadcasting's David Smith wages an informational war on the unhinged leftist in the state .
Since Gov. Wes Moore took office in January 2023, Maryland's fiscal profile has deteriorated sharply. The state entered Moore's first term with a roughly $5 billion surplus, but by 2025, it was facing a $3.3 billion deficit. This swing from surplus to deficit only suggests how Democratic leftists in Annapolis spent taxpayer funds on failed progressive experiments.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 05/09/2026 - 20:25 Close
Sat, 09 May 2026 23:50:00 +0000 From Civilian To Military Economy: This Is What A Declining Empire's Economy Looks Like
From Civilian To Military Economy: This Is What A Declining Empire's Economy Looks Like
From Civilian To Military Economy: This Is What A Declining Empire's Economy Looks Like
Authored by Bryan Lutz via DollarCollapse.com,
“A government always finds itself obliged to resort to inflationary measures when it cannot negotiate loans and dare not levy taxes, because it has reason to fear that it will forfeit approval of the policy it is following if it reveals too soon the financial and general economic consequences of that policy.”
~ Ludwig von Mises, The Theory of Money and Credit (1912)
Empires don’t announce their decline.
They reveal it in the data…
And on Monday, the U.S. Census Bureau quietly published the latest installment.
Rome elevated the military as the empire decayed.
Britain did the same after 1914.
And after 1971, when Nixon severed the dollar from gold, America began the same process.
The factory floor is where it shows up first…
So let’s look at it.
March 2026 defense capital goods orders: up 18 percent month-over-month.
But, year-over-year, it’s a much larger number: up 80 percent .
Non-defense capital goods? Down 1.2 percent, which makes it the sixth contraction in seven months.
Strip out defense production, and the headline factory number moves negative.
Now, the United States isn’t exactly in full-on war economy yet. It’s what a peacetime empire economy looks like in late stage.
Here’s what the transition looks like on the chart, defense versus non-defense aircraft orders, last 24 months:
One of those lines is paid for by the Pentagon writing a check. The other is paid for by airlines and freight companies deciding they want to expand. Guess which kind of order an empire prioritizes when it’s running out of money.
And here’s where it gets interesting.
Ludwig von Mises wrote in 1912:
“A government always finds itself obliged to resort to inflationary measures when it cannot negotiate loans and dare not levy taxes, because it has reason to fear that it will forfeit approval of the policy it is following if it reveals too soon the financial and general economic consequences of that policy.”
You see, a Federal government has three ways to pay its bills.
It can tax.
It can borrow.
Or it can print.
If the US government were to tax citizens for $2.5 trillion in defense spending they’d revolt by Tuesday.
If they were to borrow it from foreigners who are already net sellers of Treasuries? Good luck.
That leaves the printer.
Every empire elevates the military as the civilian economy decays. Rome did it under Diocletian. The British did it after 1914. America started in 1971.
The Vietnam-era proof is the cleanest.
After the war ended, federal spending kept rising. The 1969 federal surplus of $3 billion turned into a $23 billion deficit by 1972, with the war winding down .
America didn’t exactly demobilize after that. Instead, they redirected attention.
In fact, look at where the redirection is going right now.
The Pentagon’s 2027 national security request will exceed $2.5 trillion . The cost of the Iran war isn’t even in that budget.
And the money supply just surged to a multi-year high. The Fed has quietly restarted QE.
So, the Pentagon gets more airplanes.
You can see what that printing looks like in the chart, below. Federal interest expense just crossed $1 trillion trailing twelve months, and M2 is heading vertical:
Mises predicted this curve. The Census Bureau is now reporting it.
And that’s why every empire’s late-stage transition ends the same way.
Eventually, the currency thins out, military thickens up, and the middle class evaporates between them.
Weimar Germany. Late-stage Rome. The Soviet Union in its last decade.
Each time, the people who held the State’s paper got wiped.
Each time, the people who held gold got out.
This week, the Fed will move closer to the cut. The Treasury will sell another half-trillion next week. Defense will keep ordering. And Civilian CapEx will keep contracting…
This is what a declining empire’s economy looks like. There just hasn’t been an announcement yet.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 05/09/2026 - 19:50 Close
Sat, 09 May 2026 22:40:00 +0000 When The Persian Gulf Supply Shock Meets The Warsh Fed: Stagflation & The Coming AI Bubble Bust
When The Persian Gulf Supply Shock Meets The Warsh Fed: Stagflation & The Coming AI Bubble Bust
When The Persian Gulf Supply Shock Meets The Warsh Fed: Stagflation & The Coming AI Bubble Bust
Authored by David Stockman via InternationalMan.com,
Here is a salient place to start regarding the economic impact of the Donald’s misbegotten war on Iran: To wit, approximately 7 billion ton-miles of freight moves by truck each and every day in the USA, which heavy truck fleet consumes upwards of 2.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) of diesel fuel.
Alas, the price of diesel fuel was about $3.55/gallon both a year ago and as of early January 2026, but has since soared by more than+$2.00 per gallon to around $5.60 recently. That’s a 56% rise in the cost of pumping goods and commodities through the arteries of the US economy. On an annualized basis, the diesel fuel bill for the US truck fleet went from $155 billion per year to $250 billion per year at current oil prices.
The big question, of course, is through which channel these drastically higher fuel acquisition costs will be absorbed—in higher prices or reduced output?
And that pertains not just to the microcosm of the trucking sector, but the entire GDP now being battered by the Donald’s elective war-based dislocation of the world’s 175 million BOE/day oil and natural gas markets.
We’d bet it will be a combination of both inflation and deflation, otherwise known as stagflation . The mix of these outcomes depends upon supply and demand conditions in individual sectors of the economy in part, but also, and ultimately and more importantly, on the Fed.
That is, whether the nation’s central bank pumps incremental demand into the economy via credit expansion with a view to “accommodating” the soaring price of energy today, and, soon, food and other commodity inputs to GDP, too; or holds firm on the printing press dials and allows the now cresting energy and commodity shocks to work their way through the interstices of the $30 trillion US economy.
Of course, during the previous comparable petroleum supply disruption of the 1970s, the Fed made the huge mistake of printing the money to counteract what was a “supply shock” in the form of soaring petroleum prices. But that led—just as sound money advocates had always held—to double digit increases in the general price level by the end of the decade, and thereafter the trauma of the Volcker administered application of the monetary brakes.
With the Fed fixing to welcome a new Chairman, as recent congressional hearings remind, it is therefore a question of whether or not the Kevin Warsh Fed will want to take its place in the monetary policy villains gallery along with Arthur Burns and the hapless William G. Miller.
We think not. We actually believe that for the first time since Volcker we are about to get a Fed chairman who understands the requisites of sound money and noninflationary finance, as well as the profound error of Keynesian demand management at the central bank.
And not only that. As far as we can tell, he also has the experience from his prior service on the Fed during the so-called Great Financial Crisis and the cajones to lean heavily against the supply shock now emanating from the Persian Gulf.
Of course, in a perfect world of honest money and free markets—including in the production of money and credit—there wouldn’t be any central bank “leaning” to do. Under an honest gold standard, for instance, the impending petroleum supply shock would cause relative price changes, thereby generating a sharp curtailment of activity in petroleum intensive sectors and the reallocation of activity, output, jobs and capital to less petroleum intensive sectors. That’s what the miracle of free markets do when they are allowed by the state to operate.
We obviously do not have anything close to free money and capital markets today. Yet we may be lucking out with the arrival of a new Fed Chairman who might well attempt to stand up a sound money proxy—at least in part—to simulate the deflationary and re-allocative impulses that would otherwise arise in the face of a world scale supply shock.
That is to say, Warsh may permit the incoming Persian Gulf supply shock to curtail output in heavily impacted sectors rather than monetize it, as did his failed predecessors during the 1970s.
Moreover, one thing which may help Walsh lean in this anti-Keynesian direction is the the need to avoid the tattered legacy of the private equity deal lawyer who proceeded him. As it happened, Powell had no clue that the blue suits who soon surrounded him at the Eccles Building were wrong-headed Keynesian monetary statists through and though.
Accordingly, when the far smaller supply shock from the Black Sea dislocation at the on-set of the Russia-Ukraine War came cascading through the global energy and food commodity markets, Powell joined the Burns/Miller brigade and kept on “accommodating”.
That’s evident in the graph below, which depicts the domestic services inflation rate excluding energy.
This is the Fed’s go to inflation metric because it arguably measures a subset of prices in the US economy that are mainly driven by so-called domestic “demand”, which is the very thing the Fed claims to be expert at calibrating.
We think Fed “demand management” is pretty much mischievous nonsense.
The fact is, however, when the Ukraine War incepted in February 2022 the domestic services less energy index was already rising at a 4.1% Y/Y rate. So there was no room for “accommodation” at all.
In fact, the Ukraine War supply shock had caught the Fed with its monetary pants down. The Fed funds rate was effectively zero in nominal terms at the time (February 2022) and had been pinned to the zero bound for the previous 22 months. Thereafter Powell and his merry band of money printers kept kidding themselves into believing that the Ukrainian War inflation surge was “transitory” and that a Volcker style slamming of the monetary brakes was unnecessary.
As it evident in the chart, however, the Fed tepid 25 basis point increases month after month in its target funds rate was blatantly too little and way too late. By February 2023, the very inflation metric that the Keynesian central bankers claim to heavily influence—-domestic services less energy services—was leaping higher at a +7.3% Y/Y rate.
By then, of course, and with double digit energy and food inflation layered on top, headline inflation was running at 40-year highs and knocking on the door of 1970s style double digit inflation.
We think this history is profoundly relevant to where a Kevin Warsh-led Fed may come out because it just so happens that the the Y/Y rate on this key metric stood at +3.05% in March 2026 or about where it had been in October 2021 on the eve of the “Powell Inflation”.
Needless to say, we don’t think Kevin Warsh, who is a real student of money and economics, wishes to be placed next in line in the Burns/Miller/Powell gallery of monetary villains.
CPI For Services Less Energy Services, June 2021 to March 2026
That’s especially the case when you look at the history of the Fed’s so-called monetary target adjusted for the prevailing (Y/Y) inflation rate. To wit, there is no logical or sustainable world in which the inflation-adjusted or “real” cost of overnight money can be negative for any even limited period of time.
That’s because negative cost overnight money in real terms is truly the mother’s milk of speculation—especially on Wall Street among the hedge funds and fast money operators, but on the main street economy, too.
Stated differently, cheap money everywhere and always causes excessive speculation, imprudent leverage, debt accumulation, financial asset bubbles, malinvestment of capital and economic waste. But above all else, it also fuels an inflationary rise in the general price level owing to artificial credit-fueled demand uncoupled from any prior and corresponding increase in supply.
In this context, the chart below tells you all you need to know about what the Warsh Fed will be up against, and also the lessons of the 2022-2023 error committed by the Fed in its delayed and languid reaction to the Black Sea commodity shock. To wit, the inflation-adjusted Fed funds rate in Q2 2022 when measured by the inflation metric the Fed swears by—the domestic services CPI less energy services—was negative -4.4% .
Surely that was a signal that the money-printers were way over the end of their skis. That’s especially because the Fed funds rate had been negative in real terms for 57 quarters running, going all the way back to Q1 2008, when the real funds rate had last been slightly positive.
But here’s where the inflationary gale force was gestated. It actually took the Fed more than three years—until Q2 2025—to get the Fed funds rate positive in real terms, and then only marginally so at just +0.75%. Indeed, it is nothing less than the big pool of negative real cost credit enabled by the Fed during those three years that rocked the US economy with an inflationary outbreak that is still not fully extinguished.
In fact, as the US economy now begins to absorb the far more powerful supply shock waves from the Persian Gulf supply shock, we think the incoming Warsh Fed is not about to run a repeat of 2021-2022.
The more likely course is actually suggested by the left-hand side of the graph, which shows that the real funds rate measured with this metric hovered in the +2.5% range or higher during the salad days of non-inflationary growth of the 1980s and 1990s.
That is to say, Kevin Warsh is likely to prove to be more of a Volcker/Reagan sound money central banker than we have experienced since Alan Greenspan sold his gold standard bona fides for a stint as the world’s most famous money-printer after the dotcom crash.
Inflation-Adjusted Fed Funds Rate, 1982 to 2026
So the question recurs. What is likely to happen to the alleged Trumpian Golden Age when the Persian Gulf Supply shock smacks up against the incoming sounder money Fed under Kevin Warsh?
In a word, we think the US economy is already teetering on the edge of recession, waiting for the proverbial wing-flap to tip it over into contraction. After all, it’s already evident that the one bright spot in the US economy during the Donald’s second go round—capital spending—is purely an artifact of the stock market bubble in AI.
For want of doubt, the table below shows Capex spending for AI and data centers and compares it to the second column, which is the standard measure of business fixed investment in structures, equipment and intellectual capital as reported in the income and product accounts. It is notable that the former accounted for just 2.5% of business capital investment in 2020, but grew by $188 billion in 2025 versus prior year.
At the same time, total business investment rose by just $228 billion in 2025, meaning that the AI/data center boom accounted for fully 82% of total business investment spending growth in the US economy during 2025.
The final two columns show the same data in constant dollar terms. Whereas the reported data shows that real nonresidential fixed investment investment (fifth column) rose by a seemingly robust 4.1% during Trump’s first year, capital spending excluding the AI bubble actually shrank at a -0.4% annual rate.
As it happened, the latter had actually grown by 6.7% per annum during the time of Sleepy Joe (2020-2024) owing to the unsustainable stimulus of borrow, spend and print after the pandemic collapse in the spring of 2020.
So “Joe Biden” therefore gets no plaudits for the artificially bloated economy he inherited from Trump 45 and the money-printing excesses of the Powell Fed. Still, it can be well and truly said that the US economy was already positioned on a banana peel when the Donald elected to blow up the Persian Gulf for no good reason of homeland security.
Business CapEx With And Without The AI/Data Center Boom, 2020 to 2025
In short, the Persian Gulf supply shock is about to monkey-hammer the US economy good and hard. And then the AI bubble in the stock market will bust—even as this time there will be no money-printers at the central bank waiting to bailout the mess.
* * *
The Persian Gulf supply shock may prove to be only one part of a much larger economic reckoning. If confidence in the US dollar continues to erode, the consequences could go far beyond higher prices, tighter credit, and recession. At some point, desperate governments often reach for desperate measures—including capital controls, restrictions on movement, retirement account grabs, and other forms of wealth confiscation.
That’s why it’s critical to consider your options before the window to act narrows. To help, we’ve prepared a special report, Guide to Surviving and Thriving During an Economic Collapse. It explains practical steps you can take now to better protect your money, freedom, and future.
Get your free copy of Guide to Surviving and Thriving During an Economic Collapse.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 05/09/2026 - 18:40 Close
Sat, 09 May 2026 22:05:00 +0000 Caught On Tape: California Billionaire Tax Architect Admits Wealth Confiscation Could Go Even Further
Caught On Tape: California Billionaire Tax Architect Admits Wealth Confiscation Could Go Even Further
One of the co-authors of California’s controversial 'one-time' tax on billionaires appeared to suggest that the levy could
Read more.....
Caught On Tape: California Billionaire Tax Architect Admits Wealth Confiscation Could Go Even Further
One of the co-authors of California’s controversial 'one-time' tax on billionaires appeared to suggest that the levy could extend beyond a single imposition.
Marxist economics professor Emmanuel Saez, who hails from France, made the comment during a Tuesday debate against economist Arthur Laffer at the University of California, Berkeley.
VIDEO
“I don’t think it’s going to be a one-time tax. Because you can’t surprise billionaires more than once ,” Saez said . "Even then, maybe some of them were expecting something like this. So, it’s going to be a debate about this time, you know, a permanent wealth tax at a low rate that’s going to last for a number of years .”
Watch the entire debate below:
VIDEO
The radical tax pushed by the far-left Service Employees International Union–United Healthcare Workers West would slap California residents with a punishing one-time 5% levy on anyone with assets over $1 billion.
The proposal has reverberated through Silicon Valley, where several high-profile figures have already established residency elsewhere . Google co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin have moved to Florida, drawn by its more favorable business and tax environment, while Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg purchased a $150 million mansion in Miami. This week, Bloomberg reported that Palantir CEO Alex Karp scooped up a Miami-area mansion for $46 million, while the company itself has recently relocated from Denver to Florida.
Even Reid Hoffman, the LinkedIn co-founder, prominent Democrat donor, and longtime buddy of convicted schrodinger's pedophile Jeffrey Epstein, has publicly criticized the proposal, describing California’s wealth tax tax as a “horrendous idea” that would hasten the departure of tech founders and executives from the state.
California is not alone among Democrat-leaning states experiencing such outflows. This week, former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz, a longtime backer of liberal causes, announced his relocation from Washington state to Miami, Florida, shortly after state legislators advanced a bill imposing a tax on residents earning more than $1 million annually.
"We have moved to Miami for our next adventure together. We are enjoying the sunshine of South Florida and its allure to our kids on the East Coast as they raise families of their own," he wrote in a Linkedin post.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 05/09/2026 - 18:05 Close
Sat, 09 May 2026 21:30:00 +0000 Commodity Supercycle: The Enemy Of The Bull Thesis
Commodity Supercycle: The Enemy Of The Bull Thesis
Commodity Supercycle: The Enemy Of The Bull Thesis
Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,
The commodity supercycle thesis is everywhere right now. Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett, one of the most widely read strategists on Wall Street, recently declared “commodities the biggest trade of the next five years,” anchoring the call on deglobalization, chronic capital underinvestment, and a world drifting away from dollar dominance. As is often the case, the narrative is extremely compelling. However, it’s also internally contradictory in ways that most investors aren’t stopping to examine.
After three decades of managing money, I have learned to be THE most skeptical of the trades that feel the most inevitable. That skepticism isn’t contrarianism for its own sake, but rather the recognition that when a thesis achieves consensus, the crowd has usually already priced the easy part of the move, and the hard part is what comes next. The commodity supercycle argument has real structural legs. But it also carries a reflexivity problem, a dollar mechanics problem, and a catastrophist assumption problem that, taken together, make the clean “go long commodities” conclusion far messier than the headline suggests.
Let’s work through each one carefully, and as always, with the data.
The Reflexivity Problem: When the Trade Defeats Itself
The most straightforward critique of any commodity supercycle thesis is that a sustained commodity rally is, by definition, inflationary. And sustained inflation is demand destruction. Before we get to the counterarguments (there are legitimate ones) , it’s worth mapping out the feedback loop precisely, because the mechanism is more complex than the simple “inflation is bad for growth” headline suggests.
Commodity bulls offer a legitimate counterargument here. First, they distinguish between demand-pull inflation, where a hot economy bids up prices, and supply-constrained inflation. The latter is where chronic underinvestment means the world can’t produce enough regardless of demand levels. Hartnett’s case leans heavily on the supply side, and that’s the more defensible version of the argument. A decade of ESG-driven capital withdrawal from energy and metals, combined with the shale revolution’s diminishing returns, has created real supply deficits in several commodity markets.
The data below illustrates the scale of that underinvestment. Global upstream oil and gas capital expenditure peaked around 2014 and remained roughly 40% below that level as recently as 2023, even as demand returned to pre-pandemic levels. That is a genuine structural story, and certainly is worth paying attention to.
But even granting the supply-side framing, the reflexivity problem doesn’t disappear. This is a point that is often forgotten in the “heat of the moment” of a profitable trade. The markets are not static, but dynamic, and, as the old saying goes, “high prices are a cure for high prices.” There are two reasons why that is true.
First, high commodity prices are a tax on growth by transferring wealth from consumers and manufacturers to producers. That transfer compresses the demand on which commodity producers depend. Governments and central banks respond asymmetrically to commodity inflation by releasing strategic reserves, imposing windfall taxes, or accelerating substitution. The 2022 oil spike is a perfect case study: WTI briefly hit $130 per barrel, the Biden administration released over 180 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and demand destruction combined with a Fed tightening cycle broke the trade within months of the initial spike.
Secondly, high prices bring more supply online. When prices rise, producers are incentivized to produce more products. When that increase in supply collides with the collapse in demand, the cycle reverses quickly due to the supply glut. As shown in the chart below, the commodity market is notorious for booms and busts precisely because of this.
The 2022 episode compressed in real time what would normally take years to play out, but we also saw a similar episode from 2000 to 2007, as China consumed commodities in a push to rapidly grow its economy. That episode crashed in 2008 as the Financial Crisis crushed global demand. The policy/producer response isn’t hypothetical; it’s a documented reflex, and the more dramatic the commodity rally, the more certain the policy response becomes.
The Dollar Contradiction at the Heart of the Thesis
Here’s the fault line that most commodity bulls don’t address directly, and it’s the one I find most analytically significant: virtually all commodities are priced and settled in U.S. dollars in global markets. That’s not incidental; it’s the structural backbone of the petrodollar system that has anchored dollar demand since the 1970s. When oil prices rise, petrodollar recycling intensifies. Commodity exporters accumulate dollar surpluses and recycle them into U.S. Treasuries and dollar-denominated assets (including U.S. equities, gold, and other commodities) . More commodity volume at higher prices means more dollar-denominated transactions, more dollar liquidity needs, and more dollar reserves held by commodity-importing nations.
A commodity supercycle, properly understood, is structurally dollar-supportive, not dollar-negative. As shown, many point to the decline in the US dollar’s “share” of global foreign exchange reserves as “proof” of its declining dominance.
The chart above tells a story the catastrophist crowd loves to cite, and they’re not wrong that the dollar’s reserve share has declined from its 2000 peak of roughly 71%. But look carefully at the actual level: as of late 2024, the dollar still accounts for approximately 57-58% of global reserves. The next closest competitor, the euro, sits around 20%. The Chinese yuan, despite years of de-dollarization rhetoric, accounts for less than 3%. The decline is real, but only because the Euro did not exist before 1999, and the Yuan only became accepted for trade on a limited basis a few years ago. However, a crisis it is not, and a commodity cycle only strengthens the dollar position.
This creates a direct contradiction with the other major pillar of the commodity bull narrative: the dollar debasement story. If the thesis requires dollar weakness to fully materialize, and many versions of it explicitly do, then a successful commodity cycle works against that by generating incremental dollar demand. The two arguments pull in opposite directions, and that tension is almost never acknowledged in the thesis presentations.
The only scenario in which both the commodity bull and the dollar bear cases work simultaneously is one in which U.S. fiscal excess debases the dollar faster than commodity-driven dollar demand can offset it. That requires a genuine crisis of fiscal confidence, a level of sovereign stress that isn’t currently visible and isn’t probable within a five-year investment horizon. Yes, the U.S. deficit is running approximately $1.8 to $2 trillion annually, interest expense has eclipsed defense spending, and the CBO projects no credible stabilization path under current policy. That is a real long-run problem over the next 30-50 years. But it’s not a five-year catalyst.
The China Problem: No Replacement for the Original Engine
China is the most critical lynchpin to the commodity supercycle. The 2000s commodity supercycle, the one this thesis is implicitly invoking as its template, was not primarily a supply story. It was a demand shock of historic proportions, and it had a name: China’s urbanization and industrialization. Between 2000 and 2012, China accounted for roughly half of all incremental global demand growth for steel, copper, aluminum, and coal. Its share of global iron ore consumption grew from under 20% to over 60% in that same period. That’s not a supply-deficit story. That’s a billion people building cities that no one lived in, which have now become an economic anchor.
That engine is now structurally impaired, and the table below illustrates why the India- and emerging-market “replacement demand” narrative falls significantly short of the original.
India’s commodity demand growth is real, and the broader emerging market infrastructure buildout adds genuine incremental demand. But there’s no single country or bloc that replicates the concentrated, high-velocity demand shock that China delivered between 2000 and 2012. The 2000s supercycle had a demand engine of historic scale running underneath it. Hartnett’s version relies on supply-side logic. In the absence of a comparably powerful demand driver, the supply/demand imbalance will not be as significant.
Meanwhile, as noted, China’s property sector collapse has removed the world’s single largest commodity demand driver. At its peak, Chinese real estate accounted for roughly 25-30% of GDP when the full construction supply chain is included. That’s not recovering in five years. The commodity demand that China generated during its construction boom was effectively borrowed from the future. Now that the borrowed “future” is arriving, it came as a demand vacuum.
Tail Risk Dressed as Base Case: The Catastrophist Problem
The “dollar demise / U.S. asset exodus / bipolar world” framing has been a persistent feature of bearish macro commentary since at least 2009. Every round of quantitative easing was supposed to be the moment dollar credibility broke. Every geopolitical fracture, the European debt crisis, Russia’s annexation of Crimea, the U.S. credit downgrade, and the rise of the BRICS payment alternatives, was supposed to accelerate de-dollarization beyond the margin.
None of it happened on the timeline or at the magnitude the catastrophist crowd predicted. And yet the narrative keeps resurfacing and gets refreshed with new catalysts because the old narrative failed. That is why those castraphosists always have a key statement: “just not yet.”
The table above makes a straightforward point. In every major crisis of the past 20 years, the world’s response has been to buy dollars, not sell them. The de-dollarization that Hartnett and others embed in their commodity bull thesis requires the world to do the opposite. Rather, the world would shift away from dollar-denominated reserves and transactions in a sustained, structural way. There’s no evidence that’s happening at the pace or scale the narrative requires.
This doesn’t mean the dollar is invulnerable. The fiscal trajectory is genuinely concerning over a multi-decade horizon. A term premium reset in U.S. Treasuries is already underway, driven by foreign buyers demanding more compensation for duration risk. These are real and worth monitoring. But they’re 10 to 15-year dynamics, not five-year catalysts. Hartnett is packaging a legitimate long-run concern as an imminent trade driver, and that’s where the analytical rigor slips.
What This Means for Investors
I want to be precise about what I’m arguing and what I’m not. I’m not saying commodities are a bad investment or that the structural supply-deficit case is wrong; it’s not. Energy, select industrial metals, and agricultural commodities face real, medium-term supply constraints. Those constraints should support prices above the levels they traded at in the 2010s deflationary decade. The capex destruction of the prior cycle created a genuine deficit. That deficit will take years to close, and that story is worth holding exposure to in a diversified portfolio.
What I’m arguing is that the clean, multi-year commodity supercycle narrative, particularly the version built on dollar collapse and a wholesale shift away from U.S. assets, overstates the probability of its own enabling conditions. And more importantly, it contains a logical fault line: the commodity supercycle itself is dollar-supportive, not dollar-negative. The two main pillars of the thesis pull in opposite directions.
But What About The AI Boom?
Here is the real question. Can the artificial intelligence infrastructure boom replace China’s urbanization as the demand engine underneath a new commodity supercycle? The short answer is no, and understanding why clarifies exactly what kind of commodity opportunity we’re actually dealing with.
AI infrastructure does generate real commodity demand. Data centers require significant copper for power distribution and cooling systems. The grid expansion needed to support hyperscaler compute loads is driving demand for steel, aluminum, and transformers. Natural gas and nuclear power are being positioned as the baseload energy sources for facilities that can’t tolerate renewable intermittency. Goldman Sachs estimated that data center power demand could grow by roughly 160% by 2030, a figure worth taking seriously. Copper in particular has a legitimate AI demand tailwind, and uranium’s renaissance as a clean baseload energy source is directly tied to this infrastructure buildout.
But here’s where the China comparison breaks down completely. China’s urbanization moved roughly 500 million people from subsistence agriculture into cities over 20 years. It required building entire urban ecosystems. That boom required everything from roads and bridges to apartment towers, factories, ports, and railways. All scratch, simultaneously, across every commodity category at once. That was broad-based, high-intensity demand across iron ore, coal, copper, aluminum, cement, and energy, running in parallel. A true commodity supercycle requires that kind of breadth. AI infrastructure demand is concentrated almost entirely in copper and electricity. It doesn’t move the needle on iron ore, agricultural commodities, coal, or the dozens of other categories that a genuine supercycle requires.
There’s an irony here that rarely gets discussed .
“AI is simultaneously the most compelling new source of commodity demand and one of the most powerful long-run deflationary forces for commodity consumption. “
AI-driven efficiency gains in manufacturing, logistics, energy management, and precision agriculture reduce the per-unit economic output intensity of commodities. Predictive maintenance reduces equipment replacement cycles. Smart grid management reduces transmission losses. The same technology driving data center copper demand is also optimizing the systems that consume commodities everywhere else in the economy. Over a five-year horizon, those efficiency gains compound. The net commodity impact of the AI revolution is almost certainly positive. However, it is far more modest than the bull case narrative implies.
Conclusion
The highest probability scenario, a structurally elevated commodity price floor with significant cyclical volatility, doesn’t support a set-it-and-forget-it long commodity position. It supports tactical, rules-based exposure management. The investors who generated the most alpha during the 2000s commodity bull weren’t the ones who correctly read the structural thesis in 2001 and held through 2008. They were the ones who managed position sizes through the cyclical interruptions and had predefined frameworks for when to add and when to reduce.
That discipline is exactly what the current “biggest trade of the next five years” framing discourages. When a thesis gets packaged as a multi-year certainty, it creates complacency about the cyclical risks embedded in the trade. Those risks — recession-driven demand destruction, Fed policy response, dollar strength in stress events — are precisely the ones that cause the most damage to investors who sized positions based on narrative conviction rather than risk-adjusted analysis.
Tyler Durden
Sat, 05/09/2026 - 17:30 Close