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We extensively covered the unusually strong El Niño, its weather impacts by region, and the risks this adverse weather poses to crop production and global food inflation. 

Here's what this year's El Niño looks like next to the three strongest that came before it. What stands out to you? https://t.co/owJvWsOvZl

— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) October 3, 2026

UBS's energy team hosted a call Tuesday with meteorologist James Block to assess El Niño impacts for weather markets. The discussion comes amid a global refining crisis and continued disruptions to Strait of Hormuz energy flows, with European natural gas futures approaching 90 euros per megawatt-hour this week.

Block offered some relief to energy consumers as the Northern Hemisphere approaches winter. He expressed high confidence that warmer-than-normal conditions will be present across several major energy-demand regions, including the northern US, Europe and parts of Asia. That could moderate heating demand as energy supplies, such as heating oil, remain tight.

Above-average temperatures, however, would not eliminate the risk of one or two cold blasts. Block warned of the potential for "black swan" events, including snowstorms and ice storms. In the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, a powerful nor'easter coinciding with an Arctic cold outbreak could blanket major cities with heavy snow, even within a mild winter. 

Here are the key takeaways from the discussion:

Strongest El Niño in more than 75 years

According to the expert, the current El Niño is unequivocally the strongest observed since modern sea surface temperature monitoring began in the 1950s. A "Super El Niño" is typically characterized by Pacific Ocean temperatures exceeding normal levels by more than 3°C, and the expert believes that anomalies could surpass 3.5°C this season. The event is expected to peak in January before gradually weakening, with conditions likely returning to normal by May 2027. While Super El Niño events generally result in milder winter weather, they can also generate so-called "black swan" weather events, including severe snowstorms and ice storms. Should such episodes occur, the expert believes they are most likely between late January and early February and would probably be short-lived, lasting between one and two weeks. Overall, however, the implication for energy markets is lower-than-average heating-related demand for this winter.

Regional outlooks

The impact from El Niño varies significantly by region. In the United States, the expert expects temperatures across the Northern Plains, Northeast and parts of Canada to average 1.5°C to 3°C above normal. In contrast, the Southern Tier is expected to experience cooler-than-average conditions. Texas, in particular, is likely to see colder and wetter weather than normal, although the probability of an extreme freeze event remains lower than in a typical winter. For Europe, the signal is less pronounced than in North America but still points towards a relatively mild season. The expert expects temperatures across Southern and Central Europe to average approximately 0.5°C to 1.5°C above normal. The impact is likely to be smaller in Northern Europe, although conditions are still expected to trend warmer than average overall. In Asia, confidence is highest for above-normal temperatures in India and Japan. Forecast signals for China are less robust, as weather patterns there are influenced more heavily by continental effects and local terrain. This is particularly relevant because energy demand is concentrated in northern China, where the warming signal appears weaker.

Beyond temperature: hurricanes, wind and precipitation

The discussion also covered the outlook for the remainder of the hurricane season, as well as expected wind and precipitation patterns. The expert does not anticipate any additional storms affecting the Gulf and highlighted the unusually quiet hurricane season to date, which has produced only one significant storm. Wind conditions in the United States are expected to benefit from a more southerly storm track, leading to stronger wind speeds, particularly in key wind-power generation regions. The outlook for Europe is less certain. On precipitation, the southern United States is expected to experience a wetter and stormier pattern, resulting in higher rainfall and improved water availability. Europe, by contrast, is expected to be both warmer and drier than average.

US Weather Pattern For El Niño & La Niña Winter 

Global El Niño Weather Pattern

Related:

• NOAA Winter Outlook: Record El Niño Points To Wetter South, Warmer North

So far, El Niño-related increases in vertical wind shear have helped suppress Atlantic tropical cyclone development, with no tropical development or storms hitting the US East Coast.

Authored by Robert Arvay via American Thinker,

It has happened before in history. Those who think it can't happen again are out of their minds...

In 1200 B.C., worldwide civilization fell into ruin. That is only partially an overstatement. The Americas and Asia were on a separate path, but the Mediterranean complex of civilizations, the "known world," was all but destroyed. It was laying the foundation of Western Civilization, which is the modern worldwide standard for science, technology, human rights, and self-government - and critically, an enduring monotheistic society.

The Bronze Age collapse took about a century, but that is sudden in terms of history. Before 1300 B.C. there was a network of prosperous, stable kingdoms. Then, shortly thereafter, everything went wrong at once. Volcanoes and invasions were the headline causes, but numerous other factors came into play. The result was the destruction of mighty empires. Thriving cities fell into ruin. Trade routes were cut. Barbarians massacred entire populations.

Recovery took centuries, but here we are, enjoying yet another golden age of worldwide prosperity. Yes, there are dark spots and open sores in the picture, but day to day, most people awaken to indoor plumbing and controlled temperatures. They enjoy breakfast, and they thrive within family, career, and comfort.

It could all come crashing down in a lifetime or less.

In the 1980s, cultural revolutionaries chanted, "Hey, hey, ho, ho, Western civ has got to go." If no one took them seriously at the time, we do now, because they are getting their wish.

Witness Europe. The aforementioned modern worldwide standard for science, etc. is being eroded. Invaders who once were repelled at the walls have now been invited in through the gates, and given food, shelter, medical care, and freedom. In return, they plunder, rape, and murder their benefactors. The revolution continues.

All of this was not only eminently predictable, but actually predicted. Hungary and Poland sounded the warning loud and clear, as did classic liberals throughout Europe and the anglosphere. Today, those two nations are the safest and most stable countries in Europe, yet they are excoriated by the others for practicing the very policies that make them the shining examples of what the continent could be. The lepers are screaming at the healthy, "Be like us!"

Is a reversal of the currently unfolding self-destruction possible? Yes, but the bandage must be painfully ripped off. Mass deportation, previously unthinkable to the leftist mind, is now being seriously discussed as a necessity. Painful solutions, however, are not something ignorant populations accept, or even understand.

As our Founders understood, evils will be suffered while they are sufferable, but eventually, they become neither tolerable nor tolerated. What happens when the evils are so deeply embedded that removing them is not merely painful, but destructive of the institutions of power?

Embedded they are. Western Europe, which was once the bastion of all that is valuable in a free society, has fallen into a state of what can only be called terminal madness - a state in which the cure is deemed to be the disease, and vice versa.

Worse yet, Canada and Australia, legendary allies and partners of the United States, are falling headlong into the same mire. Mires, almost by definition, only get worse, pulling their victims ever downward the more they struggle to extricate themselves. Canada will soon discover this, courtesy of its new friends in Communist China.

In the 1940s, European civilization was on the brink of final collapse. The economies of Italy and Germany had become so distressed that brutal dictatorships were installed as a solution, bringing ever more ruin. Will history repeat itself?

There is hope. Bronze was never the best metal; iron is better, but iron is more difficult to forge than the copper-tin alloy of bronze. Only when the supplies of tin were cut off were the metalsmiths forced to resort to the more abundant, and stronger, elemental iron. It had been there all along, available the whole time. (Does this give greater meaning to the word irony?)

By analogy, multiculturalism is the weak alloy of various, incompatible cultures. The values of Western civilization are the iron - difficult to practice but superior values to which we must return. Europe can survive, but it will have to be dragged, kicking and screaming (and worse) the whole way.

Viva Hungary. Viva Poland.

We publish a variety of perspectives. Nothing written here is to be construed as representing the views of ZeroHedge.

Authored by Joe Lauria via Consortium News

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has threatened a major military offensive against the West Bank four days before he stands for re-election after two Israeli soldiers were killed on Friday in Hebron. 

Consortium News on Thursday predicted that Palestinians killing an Israeli on the West Bank could trigger an all-out war against the Palestinian Authority. 

It is still unclear what led to the Israeli soldiers being killed after a clash with what early reports call Palestinian "gunmen." The men, identified by the Israelis as Firas and Hamouda al-Jaaba, did not appear to be members of the PA security forces.

Netanyahu rushed to Hebron, where in military gear, he announced that the entire city would be shut down as the IDF carried out house-to-house operations.  He vowed a major military operation in the West Bank, “of a scale not seen since the Six-Day War,” when Israel began its occupation of the territory in 1967.

“The IDF is ready to carry it out. We will determine the timing, but it is coming,” he said.

Before it was known that the Israeli soldiers had been killed, he issued this statement:

“It appears that Hamas terrorists were planning a major attack aimed at murdering innocent civilians, as evidenced by the large quantities of weapons and ammunition discovered. … I have instructed the IDF and security forces to immediately cordon off the city of Hebron and take additional security measures to prevent terrorist attacks originating from Judea and Samaria.”

Bezalel Smotrich, Israel’s  extreme right finance minister, also in Hebron, called for a major war against the occupied West Bank similar to Gaza. 

“There is no alternative to a comprehensive military operation in Judea and Samaria that will lead to the dismantling of the Palestinian Authority, the confiscation of weapons and the elimination of terrorists. Just as in Gaza and Lebanon,” said Smotrich, who added he would push for the operation to be approved and implemented. 

Consortium News reported Thursday:

“Israel is threatening ‘total war’ against the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank.

With just days to go before the Israeli general election on Oct. 27, Israel’s prime minister and defense minister have threatened a full-scale attack if an Israel settler or soldier is killed by a member of the Palestinian security forces.”

The article said that both Netanyahu and  Defense Minister Israel Katz warned that Palestinians killing an Israeli soldier or settler on the West bank would trigger a major offensive.

Katz said that the IDF was waiting for PA security personnel and associated groups to “turn their guns” against Israeli settlers and IDF troops in the West Bank.

He said:

“In such a case, war will be declared against the Palestinian Authority, and the IDF will launch a comprehensive offensive in accordance with an organized plan that was formulated and approved by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and by me, according to the principles outlined for the IDF.”

Katz added:

“The campaign will be short and powerful, and will include the use of ground and air forces, and the use of special means, the targeting and expulsion of senior officials, the destruction of weapons and military equipment, and the extensive evacuation of residents and destruction of terrorist infrastructure inside the cities and in all refugee camps in Judea and Samaria[West Bank] , in accordance with the Gaza and Lebanon model, alongside reinforcing forces and defending the Israeli communities.”

During a visit to a West Bank security barrier on Oct.13, Netanyahu also warned of all out war against Ramallah. “Our enemies are thinking of testing us in these days leading up to the elections. I warn them that we are prepared for every scenario, including what is known as ‘turning the guns around,’” he said.

Netanyahu said the IDF had given him and Katz “a powerful, robust plan. … In such a scenario, I wouldn’t advise our enemies to test us. You will encounter a level of force here that you never imagined.”

Israeli forces demolished homes and damaged roads in Hebron in the occupied West Bank, forcing around 1,200 Palestinians to leave their homes a day after a Palestinian attack killed two Israeli soldiers https://t.co/VncVZYi618 https://t.co/fVgqU0mQQC

— Reuters (@Reuters) October 24, 2026

CN speculated that Israel could provoke such a killing just days before the election in order to give Netanyahu the casus belli.

Polls indicate his party will not win a majority to form a new government, it could come in second place and that he might not be asked to form a new government. Netanyahu face possible jail time on corruption charges if he is no longer the prime minister.

The Nuclear Company (TNC) unveiled plans on October 21st for Prosperity One, a campus on the Ohio River in Lewis County, Kentucky, with room for up to six Westinghouse AP1000 reactors.

At roughly 6.6 GW, a fully built Prosperity One would top Georgia's four-unit Plant Vogtle as the largest nuclear plant in the country. That's more than a third of the roughly 18 GW of generating capacity Kentucky currently has.

It would also be Kentucky's first commercial reactor. The state only lifted its decades-old restrictions on new nuclear construction in 2017.

The first phase calls for two units, and TNC wants federal approvals in hand to start construction in 2028. 

That's ambitious for a project that hasn't filed anything with the NRC or PJM yet…

Power generation comps: nat gas still cheapest but grid queue now up to 5 years. Restart and uprates of nuclear more expensive but wait time much less. https://t.co/EI9F9GbrLE

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 6, 2026

The Carrs Bottom site near Vanceburg was once assembled for a coal plant that was later abandoned, and it sits half a mile from a 765 kV line feeding PJM. The land belongs to lifelong Lewis County resident Sam Howard, who is partnering on the project.

"I have nine grandchildren, and all of them live in Lewis County," Howard said. "I want them to have the opportunity to stay."

We've been tracking TNC for a while. In April, we reported the startup was preparing to propose an AP1000 at one of three South Carolina sites, noting that the $80 billion Westinghouse deal struck with Washington six months earlier had produced zero visible shovels in the dirt.

Weeks later, TNC and Brookfield, which owns 51% of Westinghouse, teamed up on a new company to develop Westinghouse reactor projects. Its first job is the possible completion of VC Summer Units 2 and 3, the two half-built AP1000s abandoned in 2017 after South Carolina utilities sank about $9 billion into them.

Cost overruns at the miserably managed Vogtle and Summer projects drove Westinghouse into bankruptcy that same year. Fast forward almost 10 years, and now the company is looking to IPO at almost $50 billion.

In May, we noted Brookfield was working toward a final investment decision by 2027, which would mean paying state-owned Santee Cooper $2.7 billion for the unfinished units. Brookfield has since told Santee Cooper's board it will make that call by March 31, 2028.

Kentucky is a bigger undertaking. Prosperity One is a greenfield site rather than an expansion of an existing plant, and TNC is betting that building the same reactor over and over will bring costs down.

Vogtle Unit 4 came online roughly 30% cheaper and faster than Unit 3, according to Heatmap. Joe Klecha, TNC's chief nuclear officer and a Vogtle construction veteran, expects at least that much at Prosperity One: "The 30%, I would say, is the floor on the savings from the first unit to the second unit."

That squares with the McKinsey work we covered in July, which credited identical units at the UAE's Barakah plant with cutting costs "from construction of the first unit to the fourth by roughly 40 percent."

The NRC has done some of the work already. On October 14th, it renewed the AP1000's design certification through 2066, folding in lessons from the nearly 200 license amendments approved during Vogtle's construction and startup.

Chairman Ho Nieh said the update "provides the regulatory foundation for America to move from building individual reactors to deploying them at scale."

Now find a buyer

What TNC doesn't have yet is a customer. It hasn't disclosed a cost estimate, a financing plan, or who will own the plant, though it says it’s negotiating offtake agreements and expects deals by next year.

In June, the DOE offered a $17.5 billion conditional commitment for long-lead AP1000 equipment, built around up to five two-reactor sites. Prosperity One's two-unit first phase would match that structure.

Then there's Korea. When Seoul's $120 billion reactor pledge was announced last month, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the units were "going in Kentucky," among other states.

Brookfield says those AP1000s will go on federal land, but TNC hasn't said whether Prosperity One is connected.

Seattle is moving ahead with a significant expansion of its electric vehicle charging infrastructure, announcing plans to bring another 200 public charging stations to city streets as part of an effort to make EV ownership more practical for residents without private garages or driveways, according to MyBallard.

The project represents the next phase of an earlier rollout that brought 58 charging units to 31 sites between 2023 and 2024. Seattle City Light and the city's transportation department will oversee the expansion, with particular attention given to apartment-heavy neighborhoods where residents often lack convenient places to plug in their vehicles overnight.

Rather than choosing every location in advance, Seattle is inviting residents and building owners to recommend potential sites through fall 2027. Officials will evaluate submissions in successive rounds of roughly 40 to 50 locations, weighing factors such as neighborhood population, existing charging availability, nearby commercial activity, and the number of households that could benefit. Areas historically underserved by public investment will also receive consideration.

The report says that each station will offer Level 2 charging with a maximum output of 9.6 kilowatts, translating to roughly 30 additional miles of driving range per hour under typical conditions. The equipment will come in several configurations, including freestanding units and chargers mounted to existing utility poles. Drivers will be able to use the stations without booking ahead, although access will depend on availability.

Engineering and planning work is expected to get underway in spring 2027, followed by the first installations later that year. Individual sites should require approximately two weeks of construction. The expansion will be financed through Seattle's voter-approved transportation levy alongside funding from the municipal electric utility.

The investment comes during a difficult period for the broader U.S. electric vehicle industry. According to Cox Automotive, Americans purchased approximately 263,000 new EVs during the third quarter of 2026, a 39.5% decline from the same period last year, when buyers rushed to take advantage of expiring federal tax incentives. EVs represented approximately 6.4% of new vehicle sales during the quarter, down from more than 10% a year earlier, although sales improved sequentially throughout 2026.

Tesla remains the dominant manufacturer, accounting for more than half of U.S. EV purchases, even as its own quarterly sales declined roughly 20% year over year. The figures highlight the challenge facing the industry: public charging networks continue to expand even as consumer adoption has slowed considerably from its previous pace.

Authored by Anthony Milewski of The Oregon Group, 

Sixteen days of the Iran war left coalition forces needing an estimated 4,000kg of tungsten just to replace the expended gun ammunition — but US mines produced none of the metal in 2025 and, instead, China accounted for 79% of global tungsten mine production.

And it's not just tungsten.

In a RUSI analysis of the Iran war, researchers estimated coalition forces expended more than 11,000 munitions in the first 16 days. And replenishing these arsenals will require secure access to a wide range critical minerals — from antimony to copper, rare earths to titanium — that make advanced weapon systems possible.

And the West's exposure, especially dependence on Chinese supply, is substantial. 

"If the war in Ukraine was a wake-up call for the Western defence industrial base, the first 16 days of the Iran conflict are a fire alarm signalling a crisis of endurance" — Over 11,000 munitions in 16 Days of the Iran War: 'Command of the Reload' Governs Endurance

Material risk matrix from War on the Rocks, August 2025. The authors' scores show relative risks, not measured percentages.

The critical mineral risks behind the weaponry

In their August 2025 War on the Rocks analysis, Macdonald Amoah, Morgan Bazilian, Clarkson Kamurai and Jahara Matisek, ranks across two broad tiers:

• first-tier risks are gallium, the battery-chemicals chain, tungsten, and graphite
• second tier includes titanium sponge, germanium, antimony, indium, magnesium, and molybdenum, with nitrocellulose and finish-line capacity in specialty steels and aerospace aluminum (requiring near-term hedges because surge capacity is slow to add)

The assessment combines concentration of supply, military importance, limited substitutes and the time needed to add capacity. For example, refining, separation and specialised finishing are frequent constraints if a mine whose output still passes through a vulnerable refining process that leaves part of the exposure intact.

Across ammunition, missiles and supporting military systems, six critical mineral priorities stand out:

• Magnet rare earths, including samarium, specialised magnets support military aircraft, missiles and control systems, making a secure supply chain from mining through magnet production strategically important
• Tungsten, its role in armaments, turbine alloys and metalworking tools connects mineral supply to both weapons and the equipment used to manufacture them
• Antimony, antimony trisulfide is used in ammunition primers; defence support for Perpetua's military-specification antimony programme connects mine development to that requirement
• Gallium, its semiconductor applications support radar and military communications; the Pentagon announced a US$174 million investment in planned Australian gallium production in August 2026
• Germanium, infrared optics and thermal-sensing equipment need dependable material supply; the Defense Logistics Agency has supported domestic recycling of optical-grade germanium
• Titanium, strong, lightweight materials are essential to military aerospace; defence backing for IperionX's domestic titanium supply chain illustrates the effort to expand alternative supply

For example, tungsten and gallium illustrate America's (and the West's) vulnerability because they underpin both weapons and the systems that support them: tungsten is used in armaments and the cutting tools needed to manufacture military equipment, while gallium enables semiconductors used in advanced military radars. Yet, China accounted for approx 79% of global tungsten mine production and 99% of primary low-purity gallium production in 2025, exposing these capabilities to highly concentrated mineral supply chains.

An arsenal built on imported minerals

US vulnerability extends across the critical-mineral supply chain. 

A July 2026 Government Accountability Office assessment reported that the US was fully import-dependent for 12 critical minerals and relied on imports for at least half its requirements for another 34.

USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026. Total import reliance is for 2025; China's share of imports covers 2021–24. The two measures have different denominators

Despite recent government funding, the scale of the challenge for the US remains significant, for example:

• recycling and substitution can help, but their contribution varies, with the US Government Accountability Office warning that alternatives for semiconductor minerals such as gallium are unlikely to reduce import dependence significantly in the near term.
• the antimony supply crisis illustrates the scale of that challenge with S&P Global's August 2026 assessment estimating that, even if announced projects proceed, smelting capacity outside China could remain approximately 27% below projected demand outside China in 2030. It also warned that new processing facilities could face shortages of mine feedstock
• a 2026 Hoover Institution policy paper, citing Stanford research, recounts a defence contractor tracing a titanium supply chain through 13 tiers to Chinese mines and transport infrastructure — leading directly to "Chinese mines, Chinese roads, and Chinese trucks"

The Pentagon is increasingly explicit about the stakes.

"Securing resilient domestic and allied supply chains is a fundamental warfighting requirement," said Mike Cadenazzi, the Pentagon's assistant secretary responsible for industrial base policy, in an August 2026 announcement committing US$750 million to secure rare-earth supply from Brazil's Serra Verde.

Acting Secretary of the Army Honorable Adam Telle recently announced the Army's first-ever "Manufacturing Rodeo", describing it as a competitive stress test for both the Army's organic industrial base and the nation's broader manufacturing network.

Meanwhile, the mineral demands of military rearmament are becoming more pressing. Global military expenditure reached a record US$2.887 trillion in 2025, with European spending rising 14% in real terms. US expenditure fell that year, but the wider rearmament cycle continued. Larger budgets create purchasing power; they cannot immediately create additional mineral supply.

Tungsten shows why securing supply takes more than money

The four tonnes of tungsten used in the weapons fired in the 11 days of the Iran War is a relatively small quantity in the wider tungsten market (the US imported an estimated 11,700 tonnes of tungsten in 2025) — but securing dependable supplies outside China increasingly means committing years ahead.

In July 2026, US processor Global Tungsten & Powders extended its agreement for approximately 90% of Sangdong's first-phase production to 21 years; buyers seeking additional material face a market where substantial volumes of new supply already have a customer.

And China has tightened access to its own production after, in February 2025, Beijing introduced export licensing requirements for selected tungsten products. S&P Global's August 2026 report found that prices more than quadrupled between January-July in 2026.

(See our recent article Tungsten price shock signals deeper supply crisis)

US sourcing requirements are tightening too: from January 2027, defence procurement restrictions on covered tungsten products extend back to the mining and feedstock stages, generally excluding Chinese-origin material even when processed elsewhere, subject to specified exceptions.

Turning defence demand into secure mineral supply

The clearest evidence of the strategic urgency is Washington's growing intervention in mining finance — particularly domestic projects — including:

• MP Materials' July 2025 Pentagon partnership combined equity, a ten-year price floor for neodymium-praseodymium products, long-term magnet purchases and financing
• the Pentagon's commitment of up to US$450 million to Elmet for tungsten mining in Nevada, including an initial US$200 million investment closed in September 2026
• USA Rare Earth's June 2026 agreement with the Commerce Department provides access to approx US$1.6 billion, to support the Round Top mining and processing project in Texas and expand US metal and magnet production
• the Pentagon's US$750 million investment announced in August 2026 to secure rare-earth supply from Brazil's Serra Verde forms part of a US$1.55 billion financing structure supporting an offtake agreement, alongside a US$300 million Defense Logistics Agency purchase commitment and US$500 million bank commitment
• The Pentagon's approx US$174 million equity investment announced in August 2026 for Australian gallium production will support construction of a facility at Alcoa's Wagerup refinery, projected to produce 100 tonnes annually, through a partnership involving Australia and Japan
• The US International Development Finance Corporation's US$600 million investment in the US$1.8 billion Orion Critical Mineral Consortium closed in January 2026. By July, its board had approved a further US$900 million in financing to support a portfolio of critical-mineral projects, including a proposed investment in copper and cobalt operations in the DRC

Conclusion

Before America can reload its missile stockpiles, it must first reload its critical-mineral supply chains — potentially making the mining companies capable of delivering those materials at scale strategic pillars of the US defense industrial base.

* * * 

Our Take 

The Oregon Group's assessment that the US must "reload its critical-mineral supply chains" before accelerating the rearmament supercycle reinforces our focus on miners already producing these materials. 

Yet a sharp disconnect has emerged between mining stocks and underlying spot metal prices. 

We highlighted that divergence in "Great Rare Earth Disconnect," a view shared by William Blair analysts, which suggested that rare earth stocks trading at 52-week lows... 

... may present a buying opportunity, arguing that optimism surrounding Chinese supply is "incorrect."