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Thu, 23 Apr 2026 17:40:00 +0000 Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei Surrounded By 24/7 Medical Team In Hideout As Generals Run Iran: NYT
Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei Surrounded By 24/7 Medical Team In Hideout As Generals Run Iran: NYT
The NY Times in a new deep dive of what governing structures now look like inside Iran says what's already long been obvious to many in
Read more.....
Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei Surrounded By 24/7 Medical Team In Hideout As Generals Run Iran: NYT
The NY Times in a new deep dive of what governing structures now look like inside Iran says what's already long been obvious to many in the wake of longtime Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death: "When Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ruled Iran as the supreme leader, he exerted absolute power over all decisions about war, peace and negotiations with the United States. His son and successor does not play the same role ."
The publication says it was able to interview at least half-a-dozen Iranian insiders, including IRGC officials, and individuals who know the younger Khamenei "well". The NY Times describes of Mojtaba Khamenei: "His father, wife and son were all killed. Access to him is extremely difficult and limited now . He is surrounded mostly by a team of doctors and medical staff who are treating the injuries he sustained in the airstrikes ."
ISNA/AFP/Getty Images
Apparently even top 'trusted' generals and IRGC commanders do visit him for fear of being surveilled and tracked to his location by Israel and the United States.
Per the sources cited in the Times , "Though Mr. Khamenei was gravely wounded , he is mentally sharp and engaged , according to four senior Iranian officials familiar with his health."
And more: "One leg was operated on three times, and he is awaiting a prosthetic. He had surgery on one hand and is slowly regaining function. His face and lips have been burned severely, making it difficult for him to speak , the officials said, adding that, eventually, he will need plastic surgery ."
All of this provides an explanation as to why he has never been seen or heard from in public since Trump's Operation Epic Fury began on February 28. He has not so much as been photographed, and when state media has issued a few prior statements, it does so via text or what appears to be AI-configured audio over state media airwaves.
This fact has unleashed an avalanche of speculation as to his fate over the course of the war, and who is "really in charge". And yet it's also well-known that Iran is able to function militarily based on autonomy and dispersion of command among units , with the IRGC given more independence to act.
The White House has alleged there are essentially two factions vying for power and direction over the war - the civilian leadership and the IRGC command sides.
"Mojtaba is not yet in full command or control," Sanam Vakil, the director of the Middle East and North Africa for Chatham House, claimed in the NYT report. But as expected the situation is nuanced: "There is, perhaps, deference to him," he continued. "He signs off or he is part of the decision-making structure in a formal way . But he is presented with fait accompli presentations right now."
As we and other have pointed out, in public at least the de facto day-to-day leader of the country remains speaker of the Iranian Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. He has taken point as lead negotiator with the United States in Pakistan, and has been the public face of updating his country and the world on both the status of the war and the now stalled negotiations.
One other interesting detail in the Times report is seen in the following :
Messages to him are handwritten, sealed in envelopes and relayed via a human chain from one trusted courier to the next , who travel on highways and back roads, in cars and on motorcycles until they reach his hide-out . His guidance on issues snakes back the same way.
Some pundits have correctly pointed out that skepticism is warranted, also given the NYT's often deeply inaccurate reporting on Bush's Iraq war invasion, and other Mideast conflict zones including Syria:
The NY Times alleged findings has it to the conclusion that even big decisions are currently under control of the generals and IRGC apparatus: "The combination of concern for his safety, his injuries and the sheer challenge of reaching him has resulted in Mr. Khamenei's delegating decision making to the generals, at least for now ," the report concludes.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 04/23/2026 - 13:40 Close
Thu, 23 Apr 2026 17:20:00 +0000 The US Military Is Running A Bitcoin Node, Admiral Paparo Reveals
The US Military Is Running A Bitcoin Node, Admiral Paparo Reveals
The US Military Is Running A Bitcoin Node, Admiral Paparo Reveals
Authored by Micah Zimmerman via Bitcoin Magazine,
The United States military has an active node on the Bitcoin network, according to Admiral Samuel Paparo, commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM). The disclosure, made at a House Services committee hearing, marks the first known confirmation that a U.S. military combatant command is directly participating in the Bitcoin peer-to-peer network.
“We have a node on the Bitcoin network,” Paparo wrote. “We’re doing a number of operational tests to secure and protect networks using the Bitcoin protocol.”
The statement landed one day after Paparo made waves in Congress with testimony that framed Bitcoin as a tool of American power.
What Paparo said yesterday
On April 21, Paparo testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee during a FY2027 defense authorization hearing. Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) asked Paparo whether U.S. leadership in Bitcoin could give the country an edge against China in the Indo-Pacific theater.
Paparo did not deflect. He told the committee that INDOPACOM’s research centers on Bitcoin as a computer science tool — not as a financial asset.
“Our research into Bitcoin is as a computer science tool,” Paparo said.
“It’s the combination of cryptography, a blockchain, and a proof of work. And Bitcoin shows incredible potential as a computer science tool that through the proof-of-work protocols , actually imposes more cost than just the algorithmic securing of networks and our ability to operate.”
He described Bitcoin as “a peer-to-peer, zero-trust transfer of value” and said that “anything that supports all instruments of national power for the United States of America is to the good.”
The testimony was notable for what Paparo did not say. He did not describe Bitcoin as a reserve asset, a payment system, or a speculative instrument. He framed it as a computer science system with direct military relevance — a distinction that set his remarks apart from most official government commentary on crypto.
What running a Bitcoin node means
A Bitcoin node is a computer that runs the Bitcoin software, maintains a full copy of the blockchain, and independently validates every transaction and block against the network’s consensus rules. Nodes do not mine Bitcoin. They enforce the rules of the protocol and relay data across the peer-to-peer network.
Running a node gives an operator direct, trustless access to the Bitcoin network without relying on any third party. The operator’s computer connects to other nodes worldwide, verifies incoming transactions and blocks, and rejects anything that violates Bitcoin’s protocol rules.
For INDOPACOM, operating a node positions the command as a first-hand participant in the Bitcoin network, not an observer.
The disclosure that the military is conducting “operational tests to secure and protect networks using the Bitcoin protocol” suggests the command is moving beyond theoretical research and into active experimentation with Bitcoin’s cryptographic architecture as a defensive tool.
As of early 2026, there are an estimated 15,000 to 20,000 publicly reachable full nodes on the Bitcoin network, though the actual number is likely higher since many nodes operate behind firewalls and are not publicly visible.
credittrader
Thu, 04/23/2026 - 13:20 Close
Thu, 23 Apr 2026 17:18:00 +0000 Crude Spikes On Israeli Report: Iran Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf Resigns From Negotiating Team After IRGC Intervention
Crude Spikes On Israeli Report: Iran Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf Resigns From Negotiating Team After IRGC Intervention
Crude Spikes On Israeli Report: Iran Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf Resigns From Negotiating Team After IRGC Intervention
Summary
Israeli media says Iran Parliament Speaker resigns from negotiating team under IRGC pressure , oil spikes.
Trump orders US Navy 'shoot & kill' small Iranian boats amid concern over mines in Hormuz. Says US now "doesn't need a deal" .
Overnight, US military intercepted two more Iranian oil supertankers that tried to evade the blockade And in Indian Ocean US conducted a maritime interdiction and right-of-visit boarding of the sanctioned stateless vessel M/T Majestic X transporting oil from Iran.
Media sources confirm based on prior Trump post that US has extended the ceasefire indefinitely until 'unified proposal' can be brought forward by Tehran.
Iran announces first Hormuz tolls paid to the country's central bank . Also asserts US blockade breached & could build atomic bomb "if we wanted to" .
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Yes 56% · No 44%View full market & trade on Polymarket * * *
'Air Defenses Active' Over Tehran Reports: Oil Spikes to 2-Week High
Nour News says cause still unclear, and this could be another drill, or false alarm, or a mere lone drone. Israel is denying it has launched an attack . But oil immediately reacted:
Parliament Speaker Resigns after IRGC Intervention
Israel's N12 News has issued a breaking headline claiming that Speaker of the Iranian Parliament Ghalibaf, who has appeared to run the day to day over the civilian government, has resigned from the country's negotiating team following the intervention of the IRGC. There have been rumors and unverified murmurings that he was even arrested.
Of course, given this comes via Israel - which is a party to the conflict - it should be taken with a grain of salt until verified; however Newsquawk notes it was enough to hit stocks and cause a spike in crude...
Meanwhile, Iranian social media accounts of Iran's two highest civilian officials have sought to push back against the current White House/MSM consensus that Washington is dealing with a fractured, divided Iranian nation when it comes to negotiations:
Iran Asserts US Blockade Breached; Could Build Nuke "If We Wanted To"
US CENTCOM on Thursday announced its forces have redirected 33 Iran-linked vessels in the Hormuz Strait since the start of the blockade; however, Iranian state media is citing the below public source tanker data (in a Telegram post) to proclaim that four Iranian oil tankers successfully crossed the US blockade and enter Iranian waters .
According to the latest statements out of top Iran officials, Tehran is demonstrating "strength" in the strait, and also the foreign ministry has insisted that while the country is still not seeking nuclear weapons, it possesses the capability to create a bomb if needed . Via Al Jazeera: "We are not seeking to manufacture a nuclear bomb from our stockpile of highly enriched uranium, and if we wanted to, we could."
Meanwhile Iran's foreign ministry has commented on the freeze on Pakistan talks, saying it has not decided to participate as of yet, but emphasized too that it is "not an option" to transfer out of the country its highly enriched uranium.
Iran Confirms First Hormuz Toll Payments to Central Bank
On Thursday Iran publicly announced for the first time that initial toll payments have been successfully transferred to the state-operated Central Bank of Iran (CBI) :
The Iranian authorities have received revenue from tolls for ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz for the first time, Parliament Deputy Speaker Hamid Reza Hajibabai said.
"The first revenue received from tolls in the Strait of Hormuz has been transferred to the Central Bank's account," the Fars news agency quoted him as saying.
A specific monetary amount was not given - but it can go up to $2 million per tanker, officials have indicated. This week has seen reports that several Iranian tankers, with transponders off, have made it past the US Navy's blockade - which the Pentagon has denied.
Latest From Trump: 'Doesn't Need a Deal'
Talks have stalled, and don't appear to be any closer - despite some optimistic Thursday early headlines - as the two sides are as far away as ever on the nuclear issue. This is perhaps why Trump has agreed the US 'doesn't need a deal' to get what it wants from Iran. The president shared a Washington Post article wherein the author argues that Iran is running out of [oil] storage, money, and time .
The below fresh Truth Social commentary also generally reflects recent reporting and the outlook of WaPo's Marc Thiessen , of Iraq War infamy as a former longtime speechwriter for Donald Rumsfeld and President George W. Bush :
It should be noted that this is some of Marc Thiessen's prior content and 'reporting'. He's the most hawkish of all the hawkish pundits, lately also appearing on Mark Levin. And...
Trump Orders Navy to Shoot & Kill
Despite a ceasefire still technically being on, President Trump has just ordered the US Navy to "shoot and kill" any small Iranian boat which poses a threat to the Strait of Hormuz, especially ones "putting mines in the waters" of the strait. This risks rapid escalation already amid tit-for-tat tanker seizures, and it means a shooting war could soon open up in the contested vital waterway.
Oil, and markets reacted immediately on the escalatory order from Washington:
Status of Stalled Pakistan Negotiations: 'Breakthrough' Soon?
US hours began with a somewhat optimistic headline, picked up by Reuters, which was strangely enough first issued by Chinese media. Iranian sources said preparations for Iran-US negotiations could produce a breakthrough "tonight or tomorrow," according to Chinese state broadcaster CCTV. However, this supposed 'breakthrough' speaks to merely getting to the table, which last weekend the sides failed to do in what was the planned, but canceled, second round.
Meanwhile a reported Pakistani proposal calls for reopening the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for a partial lifting of sanctions on Iran .
Pakistani officials blamed the US blockade, not internal divisions in Iran, for the stalled talks, while President Trump apparently having extended the ceasefire indefinitely, citing what he described as "fractured" leadership in Tehran.
Trump has extended the ceasefire indefinitely . From a Tuesday Truth Social Post : "Based on the fact that the Government of Iran is seriously fractured, not unexpectedly so and, upon the request of Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, of Pakistan, we have been asked to hold our Attack on the Country of Iran until such time as their leaders and representatives can come up with a unified proposal ."
Another US Boarding... in Indian Ocean
US forces conducted "a maritime interdiction and right-of-visit boarding of the sanctioned stateless vessel M/T Majestic X transporting oil from Iran in the Indian Ocean" overnight, the US Department of Defense said on X.
The statement said the vessel was operating within the area of responsibility of United States Indo-Pacific Command. "We will continue global maritime enforcement to disrupt illicit networks and interdict vessels providing material support to Iran, wherever they operate," it said. "International waters cannot be used as a shield by sanctioned actors. The Department of War will continue to deny illicit actors and their vessels freedom of maneuver in the maritime domain."
The interdiction video put out by US Central Command:
Latest Hormuz Intercepts
The Hormuz chokepoint standoff between Tehran and the US military has become the center of the nearly two-month conflict. This standoff marks the next phase following an extended ceasefire with Iran after a second round of peace talks was canceled in Pakistan earlier this week.
On Wednesday, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said President Donald Trump is allowing Iran more time to respond to US demands, but expects Tehran to present a "unified proposal."
"So, again, the president's offering them a little bit of flexibility because we want to see a unified proposal to the president's very strong proposal. And he's made his red lines very clear," Leavitt said.
Iran has stated that it will not resume negotiations with US officials while a US naval blockade on its ports remains in place, and the US military said it intercepted two Iranian oil supertankers that tried to evade the blockade .
This comes after Iranian forces seized two ships on Wednesday.
In response to Trump's ceasefire extension, Iran's state TV cited the foreign ministry as saying it is monitoring developments and that the armed forces are ready for any threat.
With Hormuz effectively shut this week, roughly a fifth of global oil and LNG flows remain highly disrupted as the energy shock ripples from the Middle East to Asia, Africa, Europe, and finally the West Coast of the US.
A new Department of War assessment cited by The Washington Post said it would take US forces six months to clear the maritime chokepoint of mines deployed by Iranian naval forces.
Other overnight news includes Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell announcing that Secretary John C. Phelan will be stepping down. "On behalf of the Secretary of War and Deputy Secretary of War, we are grateful to Secretary Phelan for his service to the Department and the United States Navy," Parnell said in a statement. "We wish him well in his future endeavors."
Latest overnight headlines (courtesy of Bloomberg):
Ceasefire Extension
US President Donald Trump extended a ceasefire with Iran indefinitely on Tuesday evening with no deadline for its expiry
Iran has said it will not resume negotiations while a US naval blockade on its port remains in place
Vice President JD Vance had been prepared to fly to Islamabad for peace talks, but Tehran says it has no plans to take part in negotiations imminently
Hormuz
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz ground to a halt on Thursday after Iran fired on commercial ships and seized at least two vessels
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps seized the MSC Francesca and another ship identified as 'Epaminondes' on Wednesday
Iran has collected its first revenue from tolls imposed on the Strait of Hormuz, according to an Iranian lawmaker
Blockade
The US military intercepted two Iranian oil supertankers Hedy and Hero II that tried to evade its blockade earlier this week
At least two fully laden Iranian tankers sailed past a US blockade this week, ferrying roughly 9 million barrels of oil to market
Iranian gunboats fired on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday while two of its own oil supertankers tested the US blockade
Market Impacts
Energy prices are rising again due to the impasse and worsening tension over the Strait of Hormuz
Emirates is operating at 65% of capacity with about 13% of airports in its network still cut off
Honeywell's outlook assumes the conflict will last through the second quarter and decrease revenue by about $100 million to $150 million
Sweden may need to restrict energy use if supplies from the Middle East remain disrupted, with the government examining potential limits on fuel use
Chart of the Day (via UBS)
Commentary on energy markets from UBS analyst Catherine Gordon:
The UBS oil & gas team continues to argue the scale of disruption is underpriced in both oil and equities: the UBS base case had de-escalation in early April and gradual resumption of flows over 2Q26, keeping Brent at $100/bbl in 2Q26 and in the low to mid-$80s in 2H26, but this path requires actual improvements in flows very soon, rather than only a ceasefire.
Absent progress toward normalizing energy flows via the Strait of Hormuz within the next week or two, UBS warns the market risks a significant spike in oil and LNG prices, with longer disruption into May breaching recent highs of ~$120/bbl for front month and ~$150/bbl for Dated Brent.
Energy-dedicated investors continue to focus on barrels versus rhetoric: each day of stalemate implies a forfeiture of roughly 12–15mb/d of production. The market is now moving into an energy “air pocket,” which should drive a convergence between dated and forward oil prices, or between divergent price expectations in the physical and paper energy markets.
From a trading perspective, broader equities have remained resilient on “de-escalation” headlines, but the setup still feels very fragile, with technicals having done much of the work (CTAs slowing), positioning has caught up, and index-level valuations are pricing in relatively little disruption.
Brent crude futures are trading at $103 a barrel.
*This is the running blog of the US-Iran conflict for Thursday.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 04/23/2026 - 13:18 Close
Thu, 23 Apr 2026 17:00:00 +0000 Republicans Open New Front In Growing Battle Against "Climate Lawfare"
Republicans Open New Front In Growing Battle Against "Climate Lawfare"
Republicans in Congress are taking action to shield U.S. energy producers from “Climate lawfare,” the relentless barrage of frivolous lawsuits orchestrated by ra
Read more.....
Republicans Open New Front In Growing Battle Against "Climate Lawfare"
Republicans in Congress are taking action to shield U.S. energy producers from “Climate lawfare,” the relentless barrage of frivolous lawsuits orchestrated by radical environmental activists.
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) introduced S.4340, a bill that would bar frivolous lawsuits from green activist groups seeking damages, injunctions, or other relief for harms allegedly caused by the end use of energy products . Senators Ted Budd (R- NC), Tom Cotton (R-AR), and Mike Lee (R-UT) are cosponsoring the legislation. The House companion bill, H.R. 8330, was introduced yesterday by Rep. Harriet Hageman (R-WY). The bill would also void any energy penalty law and preempts any states’ attempts to regulate interstate and global emissions.
“Radical environmental groups have waged a coordinated campaign to weaponize our judicial system against American energy producers, including many in Texas,” Cruz said in a statement. “They’re using meritless lawsuits to bankrupt our energy industry, kill good paying jobs, and drive up the cost of electricity and gasoline for hardworking families. I am proud to lead this bill to stop that abuse to protect American jobs, lower energy costs, and defend American energy dominance.”
“Energy security is national security, and we will not self-sabotage our critical industries with a cascade of costly lawsuits and extreme penalties that jeopardize American drilling. America’s energy producers should be protected from the dangerous legal precedent that would be set by the retroactive punishment of lawful activity ,” Hageman said .
The bill has already won applause by energy groups aligned with President Donald Trump’s pro-growth agenda.
“Green left activists have always gone to extraordinary lengths to impose their anti-energy agenda on Americans. Filing sweeping lawsuits against oil and gas companies in an attempt to force policy outcomes they have failed to achieve in the legislative and administrative arenas is some of their most egregious work yet,” American Energy Alliance president Tom Pyle said . "This kind of politically motivated litigation threatens not only energy stability, security, and affordability but also the integrity of our legal system.”
The legislation arrives as California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Vermont have taken landmark legal action aimed at holding fossil fuel companies accountable for misrepresenting to the public about their products’ role in climate change.
On Friday, the Supreme Court delivered a unanimous procedural victory for sanity, ruling that certain environmental damage lawsuits, including one against Chevron for alleged destruction of coastal wetlands in Louisiana, can be removed from hostile state courts to more neutral federal forums.
“Chevron’s case fits comfortably within the ordinary meaning of a suit ‘relating to’ the performance of federal duties, ” said Justice Clarence Thomas. “Chevron has plausibly alleged a close relationship between its challenged conduct and the performance of its federal duties —not a tenuous, remote, or peripheral one.”
Tyler Durden
Thu, 04/23/2026 - 13:00 Close
Thu, 23 Apr 2026 16:40:00 +0000 RFK Jr. Tells Senate Glyphosate Causes Cancer
RFK Jr. Tells Senate Glyphosate Causes Cancer
RFK Jr. Tells Senate Glyphosate Causes Cancer
Authored by Troy Myers via The Epoch Times,
Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. told senators on April 21 that glyphosate, a key ingredient in herbicides like Roundup, causes cancer and that human consumption of the chemical should be minimized.
His comments came amid growing political and legal controversy over the chemical, which is widely used in agriculture. During a Senate Budget Committee hearing, Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) asked Kennedy whether the chemical caused cancer.
Without hesitation, Kennedy replied, “Yes.” Schatz also asked if the chemical was safe for human use.
“I mean, safe, or does it kill weeds? It kills weeds,” Kennedy said. “I would say it’s important to minimize consumption of glyphosate as much as possible.”
Schatz told Kennedy he was being “uncharacteristically diplomatic about glyphosate,” which Kennedy, a standard-bearer for the Make America Healthy Again movement, denied.
Kennedy helped secure a $289 million award from Monsanto in 2018 while representing a client who alleged Roundup caused him to develop non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. Now, Kennedy is the leading health official for an administration that is defending Monsanto in a Supreme Court case set for oral argument just days after the health secretary’s testimony.
That case, known as Monsanto v. Durnell, similarly involves a man alleging that Monsanto’s Roundup caused him to develop non-Hodgkins lymphoma. The Justice Department didn’t argue as much on glyphosate’s alleged health hazards as it did that the lower-court verdict against Monsanto was legally flawed.
President Donald Trump addressed the issue in February, signing an executive order that said glyphosate-based herbicides were critical to the nation’s economy and national security.
“Any major restrictions in access to glyphosate-based herbicides would result in economic losses for growers and make it untenable for them to meet growing food and feed demands,” his order reads.
“Ensuring an adequate supply of elemental phosphorus and glyphosate-based herbicides is thus crucial to the national security and defense, including food-supply security, which is essential to protecting the health and safety of Americans.”
Schatz told Kennedy he had many friends in Hawaii who supported the health secretary, but they were shocked when Kennedy put out a February statement in support of Trump’s executive order on glyphosate, which would also give immunity to manufacturers if Congress were to pass it into law.
“Pesticides and herbicides are toxic by design,” Kennedy wrote in a post on X. “Unfortunately, our agricultural system depends heavily on these chemicals.”
The executive order, and Kennedy’s reaction, led to pushback among Make America Healthy Again, or MAHA, supporters, who denounced Trump’s characterization of glyphosate as critical to national security.
“I was very clear with the president about my own displeasure with the executive order,” Kennedy told Schatz. “The president felt it was necessary for national security reasons.”
The health secretary said the idea for the executive order came from the Pentagon, and the administration regards the issue as one that Trump inherited—not created.
The overwhelming majority of American agriculture relies on glyphosate-based herbicides, and “100 percent of that is coming from China,” Kennedy said.
“You have an adversary that could literally shut down the American food supply overnight,” he testified. “[Trump’s] executive order does not increase the use of glyphosate. All it says is, as long as we’re dependent on it, we’re going to make it here.”
In Kennedy’s X post, he stated that cross-agency steps are being taken to shift away from harmful agricultural practices. The health secretary reaffirmed this goal to lawmakers at the April 21 hearing.
Monsanto has denied Roundup causes cancer and has argued no cancer warning is necessary because the Environmental Protection Agency has historically considered Roundup and glyphosate safe to use.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 04/23/2026 - 12:40 Close
Thu, 23 Apr 2026 16:20:00 +0000 Goldman: Fast Food's 'Bang For The Buck' Gains As Casual Dining Appeal Craters
Goldman: Fast Food's 'Bang For The Buck' Gains As Casual Dining Appeal Craters
Goldman analyst Christine Cho has published her latest quarterly survey of 2,000 consumers for 1Q26, pointing to a softer restaurant environment. Muted d
Read more.....
Goldman: Fast Food's 'Bang For The Buck' Gains As Casual Dining Appeal Craters
Goldman analyst Christine Cho has published her latest quarterly survey of 2,000 consumers for 1Q26, pointing to a softer restaurant environment. Muted demand backdrop suggests that the K-shaped economy continues to fester, with working-poor consumers still facing the greatest downward pressure.
Respondents expect their visits to limited-service restaurants (LSRs), restaurants where customers generally order and pay at a counter, kiosk, drive-thru, or app, such as McDonald's, Burger King, Wendy's, Chipotle, CAVA, Sweetgreen, Panera, and others, to hold steady for the next three months, while casual dining still has some room for visit growth, though at a slower pace than in prior quarters.
The respondents under most pressure to spend on food away from home were among lower-income households, with roughly half of consumers earning under $70,000 saying they plan to dine out less.
Another key takeaway is the growing divide in perceptions of value. Fast food's "bang for the buck" has improved since 3Q25, while casual dining's value perception has deteriorated to the lowest level in Goldman's dataset.
Cho attributes the improvement in fast food partly to value menus, meal deals, and marketing tie-ins, which are boosting scores for value, quality, and willingness to pay more.
"Consumers still see grocery as better value," Cho noted.
Intention to spend was flat.
GS Brand Scores — Major fast food brands showing sequential improvement with stepped-up value focus
Exhibit 11: Summary of GS Restaurant Survey Scores - % change vs. 3Q25 Summary
Exhibit 12: Summary of GS Restaurant Survey Scores - YoY % change Summary
Cho then covered which restaurant stocks looked the strongest or weakest in the survey:
Stock callouts. QSR was a standout in the monthly dashboard, showing trends consistent with higher brand scores vs. 3Q25 for Burger King (+6.5%), Popeyes (+3.6%), and Tim Hortons (+1.7%) in our survey. DRI remains a casual dining outlier as accelerating NPS trends align with positive transaction growth and an increase in Olive Garden brand score vs. 3Q25. MCD and YUM are successfully pivoting toward value-led growth, contrasting deterioration in conversion and quality scores at SG and BLMN.
The S&P 500 Restaurants Sub-Industry Index has largely traded sideways since early 2025.
Our takeaway is that fast food's aggressive marketing of meal deals and other value offerings has clearly resonated with budget-conscious consumers amid K-shaped economy woes.
Professional subscribers can read "Deep-dive into 1Q26 restaurant survey " at our new Marketdesk.ai portal
Tyler Durden
Thu, 04/23/2026 - 12:20 Close
Thu, 23 Apr 2026 16:15:07 +0000 Andurand's "Hedge" Fund Lost 52% In First Two Weeks Of April On Levered Oil Bets
Andurand's "Hedge" Fund Lost 52% In First Two Weeks Of April On Levered Oil Bets
Three weeks ago, when Bloomberg pointed out that Andurand was the best performing hedge fund in March thanks to its notorious levered long oil position
Read more.....
Andurand's "Hedge" Fund Lost 52% In First Two Weeks Of April On Levered Oil Bets
Three weeks ago, when Bloomberg pointed out that Andurand was the best performing hedge fund in March thanks to its notorious levered long oil positioning (and really nothing else), we said they may want to refresh his exposure after the April 7 oil crash.
Three weeks later, they did: according to a report published this morning, Pierre Andurand’s largest "hedge fund" (and when it comes to Andurand, the word "hedging" is a catastrophic misnomer), plunged about 52% in the first half of April, wiping out all of its first quarter gains and then some made on bullish oil bets at the start of the Iran war.
His fund slumped this month through April 17 and is now down almost 37% for the year despite oil being substantially higher YTD . It comes after the Andurand Commodities Discretionary Enhanced fund delivered a 31% gain in March even as other hedge funds were caught off guard by the huge swings in commodities prices and inflation expectations unleashed by the war. Perhaps in the parallel universe inhabited by the ultra liberal trader, oil can somehow magically rise to infinity without demand destruction. Well... no.
Andurand trying to lever up his oil bets to 100x.
The fund - which is basically a 5x levered bet on oil, and which refuses to ever consider the possibility its manager is wrong - has no set risk limits and regularly delivers both double digit gains and losses... though in fairness it has been more losses than gains.
Oil prices posted a record monthly rally in March, driving the firm’s gains, as war between the US and Iran throttled exports from the Persian Gulf and triggered the most severe supply disruption in history. Brent futures, an international benchmark, climbed to almost $120 a barrel on March 9. Yet instead of taking profits on the way down, Andurand appears to have doubled and tripled down. And that's how he wiped out more than half of his fund's AUM in 2 weeks.
It begs the question: which foolish prime broker generously gave Andurand the insane leverage to lose such a staggering amount of money in just two weeks?
Unlike Andurand, the Iranian chaos has been lucrative for oil trading houses that buy and sell physical cargoes of crude, driving outsize profits at firms including Vitol Group, Trafigura Group and Gunvor Group.
For Andurand, the setback in March was a reminder of how volatile commodity markets can be. The fund lost about 40% last year after making a 50% gain the previous year. Yet with the 37% drop in 2026, it is pretty clear that not a single investor in Andurand's hedge fund is even remotely close to ever breaking even on their catastrophic investment.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 04/23/2026 - 12:15 Close
Thu, 23 Apr 2026 16:00:00 +0000 Kalshi Bans 3 US Politicians For Betting On Their Own Election Races
Kalshi Bans 3 US Politicians For Betting On Their Own Election Races
Kalshi Bans 3 US Politicians For Betting On Their Own Election Races
Authored by Stephen Katte via CoinTelegraph.com,
Two US congressional candidates and one sitting lawmaker have received fines and bans from Kalshi after they were found betting on the outcomes of their election races, as prediction market platforms crack down on insider trading.
Matt Klein, a sitting member of the Minnesota State Senate, was fined $539 for betting on his primary race in his bid for the US House of Representatives, which is set to take place in August. Ezekiel Enriquez, who ran for a US House seat in March, received a $784 penalty, according to Kalshi's notice of settlement.
Another case involved Mark Moran, a candidate in Virginia's US Senate race, who received a $6,229 penalty and was ordered to return any profits from his trades after allegedly refusing to cooperate with Kalshi to resolve the issue. All three were banned from the platform for five years.
Prediction markets, which let users trade contracts on the outcomes of future events, have faced growing scrutiny over insider trading and possible violations of gambling laws. Kalshi and Polymarket, the two largest platforms, have pledged to introduce stricter controls and crack down on unlawful activity.
Lawmakers offer reasons for insider trades
Moran said in a statement on X that he placed his wager to test Kalshi's procedures and see how the platform would respond to insider trading.
“YES, I did bet ~$100 on myself on Kalshi because I wanted to get caught,” he said, adding that he “wanted to see (1) if Kalshi would come after me and (2) what their path would be.”
Source: Mark Moran
Klein said in a statement that he placed the wager out of curiosity about how prediction markets worked, but later learned it violated platform rules.
“In compliance with their request, I paid a penalty and agreed to be suspended from the platform. That was the only wager I have ever made on a predictions market,” he added.
Klein is a co-sponsor of a bill in the Minnesota Legislature that aims to ban wagers on the outcomes of real-world events such as elections or policy decisions.
Cointelegraph was unable to reach Ezekiel Enriquez for comment.
Kalshi’s ongoing insider trading crackdown
Bobby DeNault, Kalshi's head of enforcement, said Tuesday these cases violated Kalshi's exchange rules but didn't warrant referral to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission or the Department of Justice for further investigation and prosecution.
“Regardless of the size of a trade, political candidates who can influence a market based on whether they stay in or out of a race violate our rules. No matter how small the size of the trade, any trade that is found to have violated our exchange rules will be punished,” he added.
The platform issued a $2,000 fine and a five-year ban in February to a former California gubernatorial contender for betting on his own candidacy last year.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 04/23/2026 - 12:00 Close
Thu, 23 Apr 2026 15:40:00 +0000 Air Force Advances Microreactor Deployments at Three Bases
Air Force Advances Microreactor Deployments at Three Bases
The Department of the Air Force (DAF) has moved forward with its Advanced Nuclear Power for Installations (ANPI) initiative, Read more.....
Air Force Advances Microreactor Deployments at Three Bases
The Department of the Air Force (DAF) has moved forward with its Advanced Nuclear Power for Installations (ANPI) initiative, announcing specific company pairings to develop microreactors at three installations .
Radiant Industries will partner with Buckley Space Force Base in Colorado. Radiant is developing Kaleidos , a portable 1 MW helium gas-cooled microreactor using TRISO fuel. Factory-built and transportable by truck or aircraft, the unit requires no on-site water, relying instead on air cooling with fans and passive natural convection. It targets military installations among other resilient power needs. Radiant plans its first demonstration at Idaho National Laboratory's DOME test bed, with criticality planned before July 4th .
Westinghouse will deploy at Malmstrom Air Force Base in Montana. Westinghouse brings decades of nuclear expertise and its eVinci microreactor. This heat-pipe cooled design produces about 5 MW, offering eight-plus years of fuel life with minimal maintenance. Fully factory-assembled and transportable in shipping containers, the unit operates without water cooling and supports remote or edge-of-grid applications while pairing well with renewables.
Antares Nuclear will build at Joint Base San Antonio in Texas. Antares is focused on its R1 microreactor, a sodium heat-pipe cooled system delivering 100 kWe to 1 MWe with over six years between refueling. The modular design emphasizes reliability for defense-critical assets and incorporates high-temperature heat pipes and automated controls. We recently covered Antares and their first of a kind approval from the DOE for their Mark-0 test reactor at Idaho National Lab.
ANPI’s goal is operating at least one advanced nuclear reactor on a DAF installation by 2030 or sooner .
We reported on the ANPI program's launch and the Defense Innovation Unit's selection of eight companies in April 2025, part of a larger Pentagon push for resilient, emissions-free power at military sites. The effort aligns with the Army's related Janus program targeting operational microreactors by 2028.
The initiative remains separate from the standalone microreactor pilot at Eielson Air Force Base in Alaska. With next steps now underway, the DAF is positioning itself to deliver reliable power where it matters most.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 04/23/2026 - 11:40 Close
Thu, 23 Apr 2026 15:35:25 +0000 Tether Freezes $344 Million USDT Stablecoins Flagged For Illicit Activity
Tether Freezes $344 Million USDT Stablecoins Flagged For Illicit Activity
Tether Freezes $344 Million USDT Stablecoins Flagged For Illicit Activity
Tether froze more than $344 million in USDT across two Tron addresses on Thursday, in coordination with the US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), marking one of the stablecoin issuer's largest compliance actions on record.
While Tether did not name the network of the frozen funds, blockchain security firm PeckShield identified the blacklisted addresses as TNiq9...QZH81 and TTiDL...pjSr9, holding approximately $213 million and $131 million respectively.
The action comes weeks after the $285 million Drift Protocol exploit; an incident that put the entire stablecoin industry under public scrutiny and drove hard questions about issuer’s crisis responses. Tether addressed the incident by proposing a $127.5 million recovery contribution.
“USDT is not a safe haven for illicit activity,” said Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino, in a statement. “When credible links to sanctioned entities or criminal networks are identified, we act immediately and decisively. Recent events have shown what happens when platforms fail to move quickly, enforcement breaks down, users are exposed, and trust erodes.”
“Our approach is different,” he continued. “We combine blockchain transparency with real-time monitoring and direct coordination with law enforcement to stop funds before they can move. That’s a responsibility we take seriously as one of the largest issuers in the market.”
As Decrypt notes , the freeze underscores Tether's expanding compliance infrastructure, which now encompasses partnerships with more than 340 law enforcement agencies across 65 countries. The stablecoin issuer said it has supported over 2,300 cases globally and frozen more than $4.4 billion in assets overall—including $2.1 billion tied specifically to U.S. authorities.
Thursday's action follows a pattern of large-scale Tether freezes coordinated with US authorities. In November 2023, the company froze about $225 million in USDT linked to a Southeast Asia human-trafficking and pig butchering scam investigation. In January 2026, Tether froze roughly $182 million across five Tron wallets in another action.
To date Tether has supported more than 2,000 cases globally, including over 1,050 tied to U.S. law enforcement, and has led to the freezing of more than $4 billion in assets, including over $1.9 billion connected to U.S. authorities . This latest action adds to a series of high-profile enforcement efforts in which Tether has supported U.S. and international authorities in tracing, freezing, and seizing funds tied to fraud, terrorism financing, and sanctions evasion.
These freezes typically involve the Office of Foreign Assets Control, the U.S. Treasury Department agency that administers and enforces economic and trade sanctions. The increasing frequency and scale of such actions reflect both the growing use of stablecoins in illicit finance and Tether's efforts to maintain regulatory compliance.
Tether’s latest action follows a pair of high-profile crypto project hacks that have been linked by investigators to North Korean hackers: the $285 million Drift Protocol attack, and $292 million Kelp DAO exploit. Tether's biggest competitor, USDC stablecoin issuer Circle, faced criticism following the Drift Protocol hack for not taking action to freeze funds linked to the attack. The firm defended its inaction, saying that it can only freeze funds when identified by law enforcement or required through court orders.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 04/23/2026 - 11:35 Close