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Sun, 18 Oct 2026 16:30:00 +0000 Two Decades Of Mass Financial Delusion Ends Now
Two Decades Of Mass Financial Delusion Ends Now
Two Decades Of Mass Financial Delusion Ends Now
Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance
Friday’s selloff was not a surprise.
Between deteriorating credit markets, rising Treasury yields, increasingly absurd artificial intelligence valuations, enormous amounts of leverage and an entire financial system that has spent the better part of two decades mainlining cheap money like a frat guy guzzling Jaegermeister at the bottom of an ice luge, the warning signs have been flashing for quite some time.
The only real surprise, at least to me, is that it’s taken this long for equity investors to begin paying attention. And what worries me most isn’t how far stocks could fall, but how spectacularly unprepared investors are to deal with a market that actually goes down and stays down.
I want to start with something I read on CNBC this morning, because I think it perfectly encapsulates the extraordinary complacency and all around ignorance that exists on Wall Street. Discussing whether increased debt issuance could become a systemic problem, Michael Rosen, chief investment officer at Angeles, offered the following assessment:
“The question is: Is this a systemic issue? Obviously, increased debt issuance is something to observe and continue to watch and be concerned about if it continues to get to levels of excessiveness. But we’re not remotely close to that right now.”
I’m sorry. What? We’re not remotely close to excessive debt issuance?
The United States has more than $40 trillion in federal debt. Annual deficits are measured in trillions. Interest expense is approaching levels that would have been unthinkable a generation ago. Corporations are borrowing enormous amounts of money to finance everything from acquisitions and share repurchases to an artificial intelligence infrastructure boom whose eventual returns remain largely theoretical .
And that’s before we get to the trillions in private credit, leveraged loans, off-balance-sheet financing arrangements, GPU-backed borrowing and assorted financial engineering Wall Street has stuffed into every available corner of the economy.
But don’t worry, everybody. Apparently we’re not remotely close to excessiveness. Oh and don’t worry about the market going down…Jim Cramer blamed Friday’s sell off on a “big hedge fund blowing up”.
It’s hilarious to constantly be called a conspiracy theorist and then see the financial world’s predominant retail voice blaming a 2% move lower on “possible scenarios” about unnamed rogue margin clerks and hedge funds, before hoping to “start fresh” on Monday, as though $2 trillion in off balance sheet AI debt, dogshit private credit marks, positive real rates on the largest debt bubble in history and all the natural laws of mathematics are just going to go away if he closes his eyes and wishes hard enough for it.
If this isn’t excessive, what the fuck qualifies? Does the Treasury have to start issuing debt denominated in scientific notation? Do we need to start borrowing money to pay the interest on the money we borrowed to pay the interest on the money we borrowed?
Oh, wait.
The remarkable part isn’t the statement itself. Wall Street is a cesspool of delusion and ignorance like that. It’s that I suspect a significant percentage of Wall Street genuinely believes it . We’ve spent so long normalizing financial absurdity that the concept of excess has lost its meaning. And I think that complacency is going to make the next genuine market drawdown considerably more psychologically devastating than people realize.
As part of my award-winning “The World Is Ending, So Please Prioritize Renewing Your Paid Subscription To A Former Bartender’s Finance Substack” Series, on September 23, I published Bonds Are About To Crash The Stock Market , arguing that rising Treasury yields were threatening to expose the extraordinary amount of leverage and speculative valuation built into financial markets. As I wrote then:
“Rising rates are a slow, methodical wood chipper for anything built on cheap money.”
And we’ve spent the better part of twenty years building almost everything on cheap money.
My argument wasn’t complicated. When the risk-free rate rises, everything built on cheap financing becomes more difficult to justify. Equity valuations compress, refinancing costs increase, leveraged borrowers come under pressure and speculative investments requiring endless access to capital suddenly discover that capital has a price. The equity market can ignore that math for a while, invent new narratives and convince itself that artificial intelligence has somehow repealed the laws of finance. But it cannot ignore arithmetic indefinitely.
As I also wrote in that piece , the market has spent the last fifteen years assuming we would eventually return to the financial environment that followed the Global Financial Crisis: zero rates, endless liquidity, cheap leverage and central banks standing behind asset prices. Then I asked a question I think is becoming increasingly relevant:
“What if we don’t? What if this is the reckoning?”
There are legitimate reasons the market could find some relief in the near term. Lower oil prices, for example, could ease inflation expectations, reduce pressure on consumers and potentially give the bond market some breathing room after scorching producer prices rose the most in 4 years this past week :
And investors will keep looking to telegraph the Fed’s next move…as long as reading the tea leaves results in confirmation bias that rates are definitely going lower very soon.
Stocks found slight intraday relief for a few moments when, speaking in Bangkok during meetings of the International Monetary Fund, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh declined to endorse or reject recent indications from colleagues that the central bank was in no hurry to raise interest rates. Warsh said he wouldn’t prejudge upcoming meetings, adding that the Fed was entering a new chapter in which it would no longer preview its decisions.
In other words, Warsh essentially told everybody that he wasn’t going to tell them anything. And the market managed to find some relief in that.
Which tells you something about the extraordinary degree to which investors have become conditioned to hang on every syllable uttered by central bankers. We’re now at the point where the chairman of the Federal Reserve declining to speculate about future policy decisions can be interpreted as comforting news.
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For much of the recent turmoil, stocks and bonds have both been under pressure, consistent with fears about inflation, fiscal deterioration and higher interest rates. But Friday offered some evidence that the traditional flight from equities into Treasuries may finally be beginning to emerge. Longer-duration Treasuries rallied meaningfully, and the 30-year yield reportedly recorded its largest weekly decline since April 2025. That doesn’t establish a sustained rotation yet, but I think it’s something worth watching closely.
As equity losses accumulate, credit markets deteriorate and investors begin worrying less about inflation and more about preserving capital, I suspect demand for Treasuries could return in force. Yields could decline substantially even as equities continue falling. (Read: You Have To Like Bonds Here...Right? )
There is a world where falling yields are bullish for stocks because they reflect improving inflation expectations and a healthier economic outlook. And there is another world where falling yields are a symptom of investors becoming terrified of everything else. I think the second scenario deserves far more attention than it’s getting.
I suspect investors are going to be stunned if we enter an environment where Treasury yields fall, oil prices fall and equities continue getting their teeth kicked in anyway.
After years of conditioning investors to believe that lower interest rates automatically translate into higher stock prices, a genuine credit-driven bear market could be deeply confusing. If earnings expectations are collapsing, credit is tightening and investors are unwinding leverage, falling Treasury yields don’t necessarily rescue equities. They may simply indicate that the economy is deteriorating faster than policymakers can respond.
This is also why, as I wrote recently in You Have To Like Bonds Here...Right? , I’ve become increasingly interested in fixed income. Longer-duration Treasuries could benefit enormously from a serious economic contraction and eventual flight to safety. There are still risks, particularly if inflation remains stubborn or fiscal deterioration continues pushing yields higher, but I think the possibility of a reversal in rates is compelling.
And the truly fascinating possibility is that bonds could begin performing precisely when equity investors discover that the Fed can’t magically prevent every decline. (If they don’t, bonds keep crashing and gold heads toward $10,000 as the Fed implements yield curve control.)
One of the reasons I’m so concerned about what comes next is that, despite the selling we’ve already seen, I don’t believe we’ve come remotely close to clearing out the speculative excess built up during this cycle.
Take CoreWeave, which I’ve spent the last several days writing about . The company has become one of the poster children for the financial insanity surrounding the AI infrastructure buildout: enormous capital requirements, debt financing, GPU collateral, extraordinary growth expectations and a business model heavily dependent on continued access to capital. It should have never IPO’d if you ask me and if it wasn’t for Nvidia backstopping its IPO, it might not have.
As I wrote in my recent piece about Nvidia potentially being forced to support CoreWeave :
“They share an uncomfortable characteristic: the financial health of one participant increasingly depends on the continued financial health, spending and access to capital of everybody else.”
That’s a wonderful arrangement when asset prices are rising and a potential catastrophe when the music stops.
I suspect Nvidia may eventually find itself forced to intervene if CoreWeave’s financial condition continues deteriorating. Not necessarily because Jensen Huang wants to throw good money after bad, but because allowing one of the central financing mechanisms behind the AI boom to unravel could prove far more expensive than trying to save it. And even then, another investment might simply postpone the inevitable. (Read: Jensen Will Blink First )
CoreWeave is just one example, and frankly, it may be one of the more visible ones.
Look at crypto, where an enormous speculative ecosystem has developed around assets whose prices depend heavily on continued confidence, liquidity and risk appetite. There are legitimate technologies and businesses within that ecosystem, but also extraordinary amounts of leverage, financial engineering, questionable collateral and speculation.
What happens when investors discover that their crypto holdings, technology stocks and other speculative investments were effectively different versions of the same liquidity trade? And crypto doesn’t even need market forces to crash. It just needs…Democrats to win Congress in November: The Crypto Risk No One Is Discussing
Then there’s private credit, a market I’ve been warning about for quite some time. In this sector, the absence of daily price discovery is not the absence of risk. Sometimes it’s just the absence of a mirror: From Par To Pennies
Beyond that, there are leveraged loans, speculative real estate investments, private equity portfolios, venture capital valuations, structured financing arrangements and countless other corners of the market that have benefited from the same two-decade experiment in cheap money.
In my September 29 piece, It’s Official: The AI Emperor Has No Clothes , I wrote:
“Crises have a nasty habit of beginning from the ground up and working their way toward the assets everyone previously assumed were untouchable.”
I think that’s precisely the risk we’re facing now. And despite the recent selling, I suspect we’ve barely begun to uncover what’s hiding beneath the surface. The excess is still massive, the leverage is still massive, and the psychological complacency may be the most massive thing of all.
Here’s what I think people are really underestimating about the possibility of a major market drawdown: we have spent so long conditioning ourselves to believe that financial markets are supposed to go up that an actual sustained decline could produce a level of psychological hysteria unlike anything we’ve seen in decades.
I’m not talking about a garden-variety 5% correction or a couple of uncomfortable trading sessions followed by Nvidia announcing another $100 billion investment in somebody who will turn around and spend it buying Nvidia chips. I’m talking about a bear market where every rally gets sold, every supposedly cheap stock gets cheaper and every dip buyer who spent the last fifteen years congratulating himself for being a financial genius discovers that his entire investment strategy was predicated on the Federal Reserve making sure he never had to experience genuine discomfort.
I don’t think people have any idea what that would feel like anymore.
Why would they? For nearly twenty years, we’ve operated under a financial regime in which virtually every meaningful market disruption has eventually been met with lower interest rates, quantitative easing, emergency lending facilities, fiscal stimulus or outright intervention. We’ve trained investors to expect the rescue before they’ve even experienced the crisis. We’ve trained corporations to believe capital should always be available, private equity firms to believe valuations are whatever the last financing round says they are, and speculators to believe leverage is a permanent wealth creation strategy.
As I wrote in my recent piece about the potential return of boring blue-chip stocks :
“We’ve spent twenty years confusing asset price inflation with genuine prosperity, speculation with investing and central bank liquidity with actual wealth creation.”
We’ve spent two decades systematically eliminating financial discomfort, and in doing so, we’ve created a market populated by people who have almost no tolerance for it. That’s a hell of a psychological experiment, and I think we may be getting ready to find out what happens when it ends. (Read: Modern Chickenshit Monetary Theory )
The first genuine drawdown will be met with disbelief, followed by anger, accusations of manipulation, demands that the Federal Reserve do something and eventually, if the selling continues, people will be f*cking beside themselves .
And underneath all of that noise, the market will be doing something it hasn’t been allowed to do naturally for a very long time: attempting to price actual risk.
If that process really gets underway, I suspect the amount of financial garbage that gets exposed will be breathtaking. There are entire business models and sectors that have never been tested in a world where capital isn’t readily available.
Some of these assets will recover. Some will be acquired or restructured. And some will simply disappear. That’s what happens when financial markets begin distinguishing between businesses that create economic value and businesses that have survived primarily because the cost of capital was artificially suppressed.
And the process could be especially traumatic because we have an entire generation of investors who have been conditioned to regard every meaningful decline as temporary, every correction as a buying opportunity and every crisis as something that will eventually be resolved by somebody in Washington pushing a button.
We’ve become so accustomed to financial comfort that genuine price discovery could break our brains.
Of course, I could be wrong about the timing. Oil could retreat, Treasury yields could stabilize, the Fed could provide enough reassurance to spark another speculative rally and the whole circus could continue for another six months or longer. I’ve never claimed to know the precise date on which the market will finally lose its mind.
But I do believe the underlying excess is real, the financial vulnerabilities are enormous and the longer we postpone dealing with them, the more painful the eventual adjustment could become.
Imagine what happens when people discover there is no law of economics requiring their brokerage accounts, home equity, retirement portfolios or speculative investments to increase in value every year. I think it could genuinely break people’s brains.
And the irony is that none of this would be particularly extraordinary by historical standards. Financial markets have always experienced booms, busts, credit contractions, bankruptcies and periods of brutal repricing. What’s extraordinary is that we’ve spent the last twenty years convincing ourselves we’ve somehow evolved beyond them.
We haven’t. We’ve spent twenty years convincing ourselves that financial pain is optional. I think we’re getting dangerously close to discovering that it isn’t.
And when that realization finally sets in, I suspect the market crash itself may be the least remarkable part of the spectacle.
--
QTR’s Disclaimer : Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here .
Tyler Durden
Sun, 10/18/2026 - 12:30 Close
Sun, 18 Oct 2026 16:00:00 +0000 NRC Backs Fermi's Four Texas Reactors
NRC Backs Fermi's Four Texas Reactors
Fermi America's nuclear plans just cleared their first regulatory hurdle.
NRC staff have preliminarily recommended issuing combined licenses for four Westinghouse AP1000
Read more.....
NRC Backs Fermi's Four Texas Reactors
Fermi America's nuclear plans just cleared their first regulatory hurdle.
NRC staff have preliminarily recommended issuing combined licenses for four Westinghouse AP1000 reactors at Project Matador, Fermi's planned power and AI campus outside Amarillo, Texas, according to a draft environmental impact statement the agency put out for comment on October 9th.
Together, the four units would add over 4.4 GW of nuclear generation capacity to the private grid.
It took 15 months from application, and Fermi wrote the draft itself as the first test of an NRC pilot that lets applicants prepare their own environmental reviews under staff supervision. The agency expects that to cut its in-house review time by about half .
The NRC is targeting a final version in December. The harder part is the safety review, which has no schedule yet . Fermi pulled the site-specific portion of its application and plans to refile it by Dec. 31, and a mandatory hearing and Commission vote come after that.
Fermi wants its first reactor running by 2032 , meaning the NRC is far from the company's problem.
Last November, we warned that storm clouds were gathering as Fermi struggled to sign its first major tenant. A month later , the stock cratered 50% when that prospect pulled out of a $150 million construction funding agreement.
In April, shares crashed another 22% after the board ousted co-founder and CEO Toby Neugebauer and the CFO resigned. As we put it then, "without tenants there is no company."
But, Fermi finally has one, on paper. In August, it signed a binding 15-year lease with TensorWave, an AMD-only GPU cloud, for 222 MW worth about $6.5 billion, with options to expand past 650 MW.
Phased delivery starts in the second half of 2027.
The lease hasn't closed yet. Fermi pushed the deadline from Sept. 30 to Oct. 31 to finish a lease guarantee, and it still needs project financing. On Tuesday, AMD agreed to provide credit support for the lease.
So AMD sells TensorWave its chips, has invested in TensorWave, and now backs TensorWave's lease. Circular?
Still waiting on first power
On-site power is running behind. Last November, Fermi promised "1 GW of capacity online by late 2026." As of August, they moved the goal posts to "about 200 megawatts of initial commercial power over the next six months."
Fermi has taken delivery of six Siemens SGT-800s (nearly 300 MW) and three larger Siemens F-class units, and three GE Vernova 6B turbines reached the site recently. NAES has been hired to run the fleet, and Hillcore Energy Capital has signed a framework deal to finance, build and own about 2.6 GW more on site.
The old founder won't let go
Neugebauer, still Fermi's largest shareholder, sued over his firing in May.
He suspended a campaign to call a special meeting in July, and last month a Texas Business Court judge declined to temporarily block a 70% supermajority bylaw and new voting rules the board adopted after his ouster. He has since sued three directors.
The board, meanwhile, named former TerraPower CEO and Bechtel veteran Lee McIntire as CEO in August.
The next few weeks will be busy:
Tyler Durden
Sun, 10/18/2026 - 12:00 Close
Sun, 18 Oct 2026 15:30:00 +0000 The Left's Rank Hypocrisy On 'Socialist Influencers'
The Left's Rank Hypocrisy On 'Socialist Influencers'
The Left's Rank Hypocrisy On 'Socialist Influencers'
Authored by Thaddeus G. McCotter via American Greatness ,
Far-left candidates court socialist influencers in primaries, then pivot to the center for the general election...
If memory serves me, while serving in Congress amidst a heated midterm battle in the mid-2000s, I made a cable television appearance where I was asked an "ambush" question. Well, it wasn't quite an ambush question, because the station in question was left-wing; hence, the anchor's Pavlovian parroting of the Democrat talking point du jour was really no surprise. The question was something along the lines of "Does every Republican blindly listen to Rush?"
"Who doesn't love a Canadian power rock trio? " I replied. My interrogator was nonplussed. I elaborated, "Though I do prefer Triumph."
In truth, the Rush in question was actually Mr. Limbaugh, who was at the height of his renown. Looking for an issue, the Democrats trotted out the canard that Republicans didn't work for their constituents but were in the thrall of a radio show host, following his dictates heedless of what the public wanted.
The Democrats' strategy quickly petered out, largely because Mr. Limbaugh's pro-American and commonsensical views were shared by scores of millions of Americans. Thus, even if some Republicans were influenced to one degree or another by Rush's views, those views were also shared by many of their right- and center-right constituents, who formed the base of their electoral coalition.
What evokes this memory is how the rank hypocrisy of today's leftists, particularly the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), regards their associations with social media, particularly radical leftist socialist influencers - one of whom, in fact, claims to aspire to being the radical version of Rush Limbaugh.*
The ideological difference between Mr. Limbaugh and today's shrill leftist socialist influencers is patent, as their anti-American content readily attests to their quest for clicks, celebrity, and money. (At present, I am unaware of these socialist influencers voluntarily putting their streaming revenues into a pool to be apportioned by a commissar for the common good of the oppressed.)
Be it hating all Americans or - as if to prove the depths of their animus - justifying the murderous terrorist attacks on our nation on September 11, 2001, or rationalizing away domestic left-wing political violence, these socialist influencers, to varying degrees of self-indulgent animus and self-imposed ignorance, aver that the "United States of Amerika" is irredeemably racist, misogynistic, inequitable, and wholly corrupt, and must be radically transformed into a socialist utopia by an omnipotent government controlled and commanded by them and their bilious, unproductive ilk, who have never run anything but their mouths.
Sane people would be tempted to think these anti-American, socialist cranks would be ignored by sound minds. They are. But sound minds are in ever-shortening supply these days. That is why they are increasingly being listened to and heeded by politically like-minded listeners.
In the instances of those listeners who become DSA and other ideologically aligned far-left candidates, there is the question of how truly they dance to the socialist influencers' tune - especially in electoral areas that are not deep blue progressive hellscapes.
What happens is the far-left candidate proclaims to the far-left, socialist, America-loathing voters how they, too, share that view. To help prove their bona fides as radicals and defeat a Democrat establishment candidate in a primary, they associate and, in some cases, physically appear with socialist influencers on the campaign trail.
Once they win their primary, however, the far-left/DSA Democrat realizes that America-loathing is not a great general election issue, so they begin to distance themselves not only from such socialist influencers but also from their own words.
One would hope such cynical duplicity would be readily identified so voters could factor it into their considerations. Unfortunately, we live in a world where the deceitfully named "accountability journalism" is a pandemic transmogrifying objective reporting into propaganda. As a result, when the far-left candidate is called on the carpet about embracing socialist influencers, the crucial bloc of independents views it, if at all, as just another partisan attack.
Consequently, the far-left/DSA candidate can casually dissemble how they are not there to disavow any social media influencer and how any past association with socialist influencers is a distraction by their GOP opponent, indeed a smear tactic. As they cynically race from the radical Left to the center in a general election, the far-left/DSA candidate hopes the voters miss the abject deceit in this defense.
The far-left/DSA candidate has actively embraced and aligned with the America-hating socialist influencer to court like-minded America-loathing socialists in his or her electoral coalition. Thus, while the far-left/DSA candidate claims not to have "disavowed" the socialist influencer, that is already known, because the fact is the far-left/DSA candidate has knowingly and cynically aligned with the socialist influencer and their listeners to win the primary .
Now, not wanting to lose these critical members of their electoral coalition, the far-left/DSA candidate gives a wink and a nod in the general election to keep their votes in his or her pocket without alienating independent and traditional Democrat voters. Meanwhile, this general election conversion from a far-left/DSA candidate into a center-left moderate is abetted by an ideologically sympathetic media that studiously ignores it.
One group that does not ignore it, however, is the socialist influencers. Throughout both their overt primary support and covert support in general elections, they have made no bones about how, once elected, the far-left/DSA candidate will answer to them - or else.
One can only imagine if Rush Limbaugh had made such claims against Republicans. Or, indeed, if Republicans had tried to win primaries by fist-bumping the far-right version of these socialist influencers and then scurrying to the center. They would rightly be pilloried by the press and the electorate.
People of good hearts know that hate is hate regardless of its partisan stripe and that it has no place in our American home. Yet, despite their lawn signs to the contrary, for the far-left/DSA candidates and their friends in a compliant press, not all haters are created equal, and their radical, socialist influencer haters, while muted for the moment as a matter of electoral necessity, are far from appeased.
If these radical socialist influencers get their way and their fellow-traveling far-left/DSA candidates get away with their cynical strategy and win, their America-loathing words will become deeds.
[*Author's note: I did not name the individual social influencers who disdain Americans and our country. I am not in the habit of giving these reprobates what they seek - name recognition, validation, and the clicks they crave that provide the revenue streams needed to propagate their anti-American screeds and promote their "careers." One rightly must support the freedom of speech. But no one is required to promote views they find repugnant. Feel free, however, to look them up and give them a listen, though I advise you to have the Alka-Seltzer handy.]
Tyler Durden
Sun, 10/18/2026 - 11:30 Close
Sun, 18 Oct 2026 14:45:00 +0000 "Replacing Europe": Undercover Film Follows The Money Behind Europe's Taxpayer-Funded Mass Migration Pipeline
"Replacing Europe": Undercover Film Follows The Money Behind Europe's Taxpayer-Funded Mass Migration Pipeline
"Replacing Europe": Undercover Film Follows The Money Behind Europe's Taxpayer-Funded Mass Migration Pipeline
A new documentary from investigative outlet Muckraker traces the migrant route from West Africa through Spain and France to Britain , examining what the outlet describes as a network sustained by taxpayer-funded aid programs, NGOs, and even Western governments.
The 47-minute film, "Replacing Europe," draws on months of reporting and undercover footage to investigate the logistics and top NGO players behind the nation-killing mass migration into Europe.
"The entire migration is a game ," says Sheikh M. Kromah, identified by Muckraker as a worker for the UN's International Organization for Migration. He alleges that Spain has a financial incentive to maintain arrivals because reducing them could jeopardize EU funding.
Muckraker claims that publicly funded institutions help sustain the migration flows that European governments publicly promise to control. Its interviews raise questions about oversight, spending incentives and the boundary between humanitarian assistance and facilitating illegal alien border crossings into Europe.
The broader concern is whether mass migration, malassimilation, and soaring public costs of the European welfare state that cater to migrants could compound fiscal pressure and political instability .
Here is Muckraker's report:
A UN migration worker admits Spain won't stop the boats because the EU money is too good. A Catholic NGO pulling in €225 million a year moves arrivals to the mainland and pays them to stay. Activists paint a trail to the French border. And the journalists who filmed it were attacked and nearly arrested.
Investigative outlet Muckraker spent two months following the West African migration route from start to finish: from the smuggling hub of Nouadhibou, Mauritania, to Spain's Canary Islands, across mainland Spain and France, and finally to the English Channel and the United Kingdom. The result is a new documentary, REPLACING EUROPE .
The film's central finding is that the movement of tens of thousands of illegal immigrants into Europe is not chaos. It is a managed system, run by smugglers, publicly funded NGOs, activist networks and governments, several of which admit on camera that they profit from it.
Among the documentary's findings:
A worker for the UN's International Organization for Migration says Spain deliberately lets the boats keep coming so it keeps receiving EU money.
ACCEM, a Catholic NGO that took in about €225 million in 2024, mostly from the Spanish state, moves arrivals from the Canary Islands to the mainland, houses them in camps and pays them a monthly allowance.
Migrants are flown by the hundreds from Gran Canaria to Madrid.
In the Spanish border town of Irun, an activist group has painted a trail of footsteps guiding migrants past police and into France, where a city-run shelter takes in people with no papers.
The UN's own migration agency says the priority should be "facilitating, not restricting" migration.
Where It Starts: Mauritania
Most boats on the West African route leave from Senegal, Morocco, Western Sahara and above all Mauritania. Tens of thousands of the illegal immigrants who have landed in the Canary Islands departed from Mauritania's coast.
Nouadhibou, Mauritania, a key departure point for boats bound for the Canary Islands. In Nouadhibou, a local source told Muckraker that young migrant women are raped and held "like slaves," and that captors call their families to demand ransom. Asked whether criminals or police were responsible, he said both: "The police do that… because they are working with the criminals who smuggle people." He added that gun and drug traffickers travel among the migrants to get into Europe.
Muckraker also visited a migrant aid center in Nouadhibou run by OAMR (Organisation d'Appui et d'Assistance aux Migrants et Réfugiés), which works alongside the United Nations International Organization of Migration. A banner on the wall reads "Projet Julia Taft – Phase II": a capacity-building project offering training, outreach and assistance to refugees, asylum seekers and migrants in Nouadhibou, with funding listed as "Ambassade des Etats-Unis en Mauritanie" — the U.S. Embassy. Asked whether the United States pays for the center's bakery and computer lab too, staff answered yes.
The Julia Taft Refugee Fund is a State Department program run by the Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration. Created in 2000 and named for Julia Taft, who led that bureau under President Clinton, it lets U.S. embassies hand out small grants directly to local NGOs. The U.S. Embassy in Nouakchott's 2022 call for proposals offered up to $50,000 per project and listed migrants among eligible beneficiaries alongside refugees and returnees.
Arrival: The Canary Islands
Off the island of El Hierro, Muckraker filmed a boat packed with migrants, almost all of them military-aged men, being towed in by Spain's Maritime Rescue Service. One man was carried off on a stretcher, apparently lifeless.
Spain's Maritime Rescue Service tows in a boat packed with migrants off El Hierro. Arrivals are taken to temporary camps. Residents described days with no work ("only eat and sleep") and men who leave to drink and try to come back with knives. A migrant from Senegal described a darker practice on the crossing itself: passengers accused of witchcraft are tied up and thrown into the sea.
Migrants outside a camp in the Canary Islands. The UN Insider: "Migration Is a Game"
On the Canary Islands, Muckraker met Sheikh M. Kromah, who was then working for the UN's International Organization for Migration (IOM) and has more than a decade in the migrant aid industry. Kromah has been photographed alongside Spain's Minister of Inclusion, Social Security and Migration, Elma Saiz, and local officials on El Hierro.
Sheikh M. Kromah with Elma Saiz, Spain's Minister of Inclusion, Social Security and Migration. "The entire migration is a game," Kromah told Muckraker. "Everyone wants to have their share." He said smuggling networks collect between €50,000 and €60,000 per boat.
Asked why Spain doesn't stop the arrivals, he said the government doesn't want to. Every year, he said, Spain receives a huge amount of money from the European Union to manage migration, and if the boats stopped, so would the money. The strategy, in his words, is to "minimize it, but not stop it completely, so that they keep getting the money."
Kromah went further, claiming some of the money changes hands in cash, carried in suitcases into negotiating rooms. He said even the special police deployed to the islands, paid about three times a regular officer's salary, "want the boats to come every day."
"Everybody just wants to make money off everybody here," he said. "So if you look at it, it's a game."
Flown to the Mainland
Then comes the transfer. At Gran Canaria airport, Muckraker found a few hundred African men waiting to be flown to Madrid. This process happens multiple times per week and is managed by ACCEM.
Migrants waiting at Gran Canaria airport to be flown to mainland Spain. ACCEM: The NGO Running Spain's Migrant Camps
One of the primary organizations responsible for moving illegal immigrants from the Canary Islands to mainland Spain, and housing them in camps once they arrive, is ACCEM.
An ACCEM-run migrant camp in mainland Spain. ACCEM's full name is the Asociación Comisión Católica Española de Migración, the Spanish Catholic Commission for Migration. According to its own 2024 annual report, as reported by Spanish outlet Infovaticana , ACCEM took in about €225 million in 2024, 88% of it from Spain's central government. It employed 3,839 people and managed 9,812 reception places that year.
ACCEM makes no secret of its goals. In 2023, its president, Pilar Samanes Ara, cosigned a letter demanding more "safe and legal routes" for migrants into the European Union and Spain. The letter tied that demand directly to the UN's 2030 Agenda, describing migration as "a transformative force for growth and development."
Outside an ACCEM camp, Muckraker met a man from Senegal who had lived there for almost a year without a job. He said residents receive about €75 a month from ACCEM, plus bus or metro tickets. Even people who leave the camp without documents, he said, still get the money and a ticket. He knew of a friend who left for another Spanish city and kept being paid.
The UN's Blueprint
What Kromah described is consistent with the framework the UN itself has published. In September 2015, the UN General Assembly adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, built around 17 Sustainable Development Goals.
In a related paper titled "Migration and the 2030 Agenda," the IOM states that the agenda recognizes migration as "a core development consideration," the first time migration has been integrated explicitly into the global development agenda. The paper calls migrant women, men and children "agents of development" and says migration can be linked to every goal in the 2030 Agenda. Its conclusion: efforts should not focus on stopping migration. Facilitating it, not restricting it, is the priority.
It is the same framework ACCEM's president invoked when demanding new routes into Europe. The UN sets the agenda, NGOs like ACCEM carry it out, and European taxpayers fund it.
A Painted Trail to France
In Irun, the last Spanish town before France, migrants arrive at the bus station on a daily basis. From the bus station, a trail of painted footsteps leads to the Red Cross and on to the town hall, where an activist group called Irungo Harrera Sarea meets migrants every day. Members of the activist group told Muckraker the group has helped some 40,000 migrants to cross the Spanish border into France.
A billboard in Irun, Spain, welcoming migrants and mapping the route from the bus and train station to the Red Cross and town hall. The man who painted the footsteps told Muckraker the trail exists so migrants can cross the border without being caught by police, and that he plans to paint more "because they get lost." The activists confirmed they tell migrants which buses to take to avoid getting caught. A billboard by the train station maps out the entire route.
The trail leads to Pausa, a shelter in Bayonne, France, that has received millions of euros in public funds. Its director told Muckraker the center is managed by the city of Bayonne's administration and keeps "no photos, no names." Migrants stay a few days, he said, then take the bus and "go all over Europe," with or without documents.
The director of Pausa, a publicly funded migrant shelter in Bayonne, France. Attacked in Paris
At the entrance to the Eiffel Tower, Muckraker found the plaza crowded with migrant street vendors. When the crew began filming, the vendors surrounded them. Muckraker co-founder Josh Rubin (@joshbrubin ) was attacked and left bleeding heavily from the head, for pointing a camera.
Muckraker co-founder Josh Rubin after the attack at the Eiffel Tower. A few miles away, Muckraker visited ARDHIS, an NGO that helps migrants seek asylum as LGBT refugees. A migrant who knows the community said many of those making the claim are not gay: "They say that they just want to get on… the help."
Calais and the Channel
For those headed to Britain, the last stop in France is Calais, where makeshift camps serve as staging grounds for Channel crossings. A local private security guard described migrants stealing from stores and killing a farmer's goat to eat. Human traffickers embed themselves in these camps, which have been the scene of deadly shootings in recent years.
Posing as aid workers and filming with hidden cameras, Muckraker got inside one camp set up in an abandoned warehouse. Men there said they came from Sudan, Morocco and Egypt. The crew counted roughly 100 tents packed under one roof, a prayer area lined with rugs and stacked Korans, and masked men watching the visitors. Once the camera was noticed, the mood turned. "I don't accept that you take photos here," one man said. A crowd closed in and pushed the crew out.
Around 100 tents inside a warehouse camp near Calais.
Men pray among the tents inside the camp. International trafficking networks run the crossings themselves. Many of the traffickers are illegal migrants themselves, often from Iraq, Albania and Kurdish regions. On the evening before a boat leaves, hundreds of migrants move out of the camps to pre-arranged meeting points along the coast. Muckraker spent weeks in Calais watching these movements and gathering intelligence.
Migrants with their belongings gather at a roadside meeting point near Calais. Getting to a launch was the hard part. An Afghan migrant who planned to make the crossing himself told the crew that smugglers are suspicious of anyone who speaks English or French, assuming they are spies or police, and warned they could be beaten, injured or even killed. Late one night, he sent the crew the location where a boat would leave from, followed by a warning to be careful because the smugglers were armed.
The crew drove to the coast and waited. In the dark, they watched a dinghy head out to open water while groups of men they believed could be smugglers moved along the shore. The boat's plan was to circle back and pick up its passengers from the beach.
At about 5 a.m., more than 50 people ran out of the dunes toward the water, including a man carrying a small child. For more than 15 minutes, not a single police officer was on the beach. By the time police arrived, the boat was loading, and they soon gave up and walked back up the beach and the boat they attempted to stop successfully departed for and later arrived at the U.K.
A migrant confronts a French police officer in the surf as a boat to Britain loads. The United Kingdom
In England, asylum seekers living in a government-funded hotel told Muckraker that housing and food are free, that they receive about £300 a month, and that university is free for them as well. One said he had been living in the hotel for three years.
A hotel in England housing asylum seekers. Watch the full video here:
VIDEO
* * *
Tyler Durden
Sun, 10/18/2026 - 10:45 Close
Sun, 18 Oct 2026 14:30:00 +0000 France Enters "Point Of No Return" As Riots And Chaos Spread
France Enters "Point Of No Return" As Riots And Chaos Spread
President Trump said, "France is burning !" on Truth Social early this morning, as what appears to be the fall of France quickly unfolds. Consumed by Read more.....
France Enters "Point Of No Return" As Riots And Chaos Spread
President Trump said, "France is burning !" on Truth Social early this morning, as what appears to be the fall of France quickly unfolds. Consumed by nation-killing Third Worldism through a decade of unfettered mass migration and a cancerous far-left movement , the nation is on a troubling trajectory as its imploding welfare state collides with a fiscal mess.
"The immigration of people from an entirely different world, people with hatred in their hearts, has shattered that once great country. Close your Borders and take control, before it is too late !" Trump continued.
Vice President JD Vance responded to the accelerating far-left violence on X, saying, "Western liberals imported the third world into France and other countries in the name of diversity and compassion. They ignored fundamental questions of assimilation and compatibility. They were told it would lead to this and they didn't listen ."
Euronews described the aftermath of the overnight riots, reporting that "broken glass and litter filled the streets ." Local outlets reported that rioters looted 1,500 retail stores across multiple major cities.
"My thoughts are also with the 1,500 shops belonging to all the other retail chains and with all the shopkeepers who have suffered the same unacceptable violence ," Alexandre Bompard, the chairman and CEO of the Carrefour Group, told the outlet.
He said the social unrest would have "considerable human and economic consequences ."
French Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez said earlier today that the weekend riots had injured more than 600 police officers, gendarmes, and firefighters. He said authorities had arrested more than 2,000 rioters .
The endgame for France is quickly approaching as its generous welfare state can no longer support the influx of migrants and services deteriorate.
Watch:
The country has not balanced its budget since the early 1970s, and sovereign credit default swap spreads are widening in a high-rate environment. The current trajectory, as described by right-wing presidential candidate Marine Le Pen, would put the country on a path toward a sovereign debt crisis.
In recent weeks, Le Pen has already offered a glimpse of the shadow budget she would pursue if she wins next year's presidential election. That would include shrinking the deficit to 3.7% of economic output next year , well below the government's 5% target, before bringing it down to 2.2% by 2032.
Le Pen's Polymarket odds of winning the April 18 election stand at nearly 48%, surging in recent weeks as the riots unfolded.
Left-wing corporate media are still providing cover for the far-left rioters and migrants who are torching parts of the country. CBS embarrassingly had to delete a tweet that called the riots "scuffles."
We have described how a high-rate environment has put socialism's promises of more and more handouts on "borrowed time " because bond markets are refusing to fund massive deficits for unproductive welfare systems that produce more economic malfeasance.
Socialist failures are piling up across the West . South America is shifting rightward, and a Bolsonaro win in Brazil's runoff election later this month would cement that move.
Related:
This outcome was very predictable...
The West is experiencing what should be considered "lived memories" of the progressive experiment unraveling at the seams, whether in South America or now in Europe, giving rise to what Nomura analysts expect will be a right-wing wave over the next 18-month election cycle.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 10/18/2026 - 10:30 Close
Sun, 18 Oct 2026 13:55:00 +0000 Army Chief Warns Britons Must Make Sacrifices For Coming War
Army Chief Warns Britons Must Make Sacrifices For Coming War
Army Chief Warns Britons Must Make Sacrifices For Coming War
Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news ,
General Sir Roly Walker, Chief of the Army General Staff in the UK, has declared that Britons will be required to make sacrifices for their country in a coming war.
He addressed around 700 soldiers at Catterick Garrison and laid out the coming reality in plain terms. "You didn't know this, but our nation is going to need you," he said. "There was a time that our nation didn't want to think of a time when it would need its soldiers to fight in a war. Indeed, very soon, the political leaders of this country will start to have a frank conversation with the citizens of this country about just what is going on and where the risk lies."
He continued that citizens "have got to consent to sacrifices to prioritise defence and security" and that they will be asked "to play a part in the defence and security of this country." Ultimately, he said, the public must "back us, to back you to do the one thing that you do that nobody else gets to do and that is to take the fight to the enemy."
The speech lands against fresh Ipsos data showing that forty-eight percent of Britons say there are no circumstances in which they would take up arms for the UK. Only 36 percent said there were circumstances in which they would.
At the same time, 51 percent support increased defence spending even if it means higher taxes, borrowing or cuts elsewhere. Support for more money has risen, but personal willingness to serve has not.
Matt Goodwin highlighted the age split: nearly half of 18-to-34-year-olds see no circumstances in which they would fight.
Commentators on LBC noted a "distinct lack of patriotism."
Public replies under the army chief's warning have been blunt, ranging from demands that borders be controlled first to outright refusals to fight for the current government.
This sits inside a longer sequence of government signals. Officials have updated the War Book, the classified contingency manual for shifting from peace to wartime footing, and plan Exercise Albiston Shadow, described as the largest home-defence exercise in decades , for 2027.
Households have been advised to stockpile bottled water, tinned food, battery or wind-up radios and cash as part of the biggest public resilience campaign in years. Hotels and large venues could be requisitioned for mass evacuations.
Professor David Betz of King's College London has argued that the primary concern is, contrary to government suggestions, not a Russian ground invasion of the British Isles - an outcome he calls "logically absurd" given the distance and lack of any realistic occupation scenario - but domestic fracture.
In his assessment, Britain is "low trust, highly fractured, and highly politically factionalised which is leading us increasingly inevitably into civil conflict." The external threat narrative, he says, functions as a convenient public pretext for preparations that officials understand are driven by internal conditions.
Elon Musk has separately described civil conflict in Britain as an inevitable "reckoning" driven by rapid demographic change and incompatible belief systems rather than any external power.
Funding choices reinforce the gap between rhetoric and reality. Prime Minister Andy Burnham has stated that national security "can't come at the expense of social security" and rejected proposals to cut housing benefit to help close defence shortfalls.
Defence Secretary Wes Streeting has spoken of "choices and trade-offs" while insisting Britain will not be made stronger by making citizens poorer. The Defence Investment Plan faces a multi-billion-pound gap ahead of the October Budget, with no clear path yet to the 3 percent of GDP target by 2030 that some Conservatives have costed through welfare restraint.
A separate analysis published this week frames the broader trajectory as acceleration toward critical crisis : sustained high migration, demographic transformation, rising welfare dependency, strained public services, and eroded trust, with governments responding to dissent through tighter speech and policing measures rather than reversing the underlying policies.
Walker's call for public consent to sacrifices arrives while large numbers of Britons, especially younger ones, see little reason to risk their lives for the present order.
The polling, the stockpile advice, the War Book updates and the expert warnings about internal fracture all point in the same direction : a state preparing for serious disruption while a substantial portion of the population no longer feels the country is worth defending on current terms.
Controlling borders and restoring basic cohesion would address the root conditions more directly than asking citizens to accept cuts elsewhere so that troops can "take the fight to the enemy." Whomever that may be.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 10/18/2026 - 09:55 Close
Sun, 18 Oct 2026 13:20:00 +0000 Live-Fire Drill Sparks Massive Gas Explosion At Canadian Base, Killing 7
Live-Fire Drill Sparks Massive Gas Explosion At Canadian Base, Killing 7
A live-fire training exercise at Canadian Forces Base Wainwright in Alberta reportedly ended in a major explosion and wildfire Saturday, leaving at least seven
Read more.....
Live-Fire Drill Sparks Massive Gas Explosion At Canadian Base, Killing 7
A live-fire training exercise at Canadian Forces Base Wainwright in Alberta reportedly ended in a major explosion and wildfire Saturday, leaving at least seven people dead and dozens injured, according to local outlet Global News .
The report said a projectile was fired during the FTX that struck "a gas line or gas well" within the base's training area, triggering an explosion before strong winds spread the fire.
Located about 130 miles east of Edmonton, CFB Wainwright is a major Canadian Army installation used to prepare troops for combat operations.
Bloomberg data shows its training grounds contain natural gas infrastructure, including wells and buried pipelines.
NOVA Gas Transmission, called NGTL, appears to have a pipeline that runs through part of an area on the base called "Permanent Danger Area 3B H1."
"I cannot recall an incident like this in recent memory ," Minister of National Defense David McGuinty said.
***
Tyler Durden
Sun, 10/18/2026 - 09:20 Close
Sun, 18 Oct 2026 12:45:00 +0000 Here's Where Germany's 17 Million Immigrants Come From
Here's Where Germany's 17 Million Immigrants Come From
Germany is one of the world's largest destinations for international migrants , shaped by decades of labor migration, European mobility, and more recent refugee
Read more.....
Here's Where Germany's 17 Million Immigrants Come From
Germany is one of the world's largest destinations for international migrants , shaped by decades of labor migration, European mobility, and more recent refugee arrivals.
This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Srijaa Chatterjee, uses UN international migrant stock data compiled by Our World in Data and analysis from DataPulse Research to show where Germany's foreign-born residents originated and where German-born emigrants live.
The figures represent people living outside their country of birth, rather than annual migration flows.
Where Germany's Immigrants Come From
The table below ranks the largest countries of origin for Germany's foreign-born population, based on data compiled by Our World in Data.
Rank
Country of Origin
Share (%)
1
???? Poland
11.0
2
???? Türkiye
9.0
3
???? Ukraine
8.5
4
???? Russia
6.8
5
???? Romania
5.8
6
???? Kazakhstan
5.4
7
???? Syria
5.1
8
???? Italy
2.6
9
???? Afghanistan
2.1
10
???? Czech Republic
2.1
Poland accounts for 11% of Germany's foreign-born population, followed by Türkiye at 9% and Ukraine at 8.5%. These populations reflect several migration waves , including postwar labor recruitment, EU labor mobility, and more recent humanitarian migration from Ukraine and Syria.
Germany's broader migration footprint extends beyond its foreign-born population. In 2025, 21.8 million residents, or 26.3% of the population, had an "immigration history," meaning they had immigrated themselves or both parents had immigrated. This measure also includes some people born in Germany, making it broader than the foreign-born population shown in the graphic.
Germany's Immigration Policies
Labor shortages have helped shape Germany's immigration policies. The expanded Skilled Immigration Act broadened pathways for qualified workers, including an Opportunity Card for job seekers and expanded access to the EU Blue Card. According to the OECD, reforms implemented in 2024 also made the recognition of foreign qualifications more flexible.
Alongside these labor migration measures, Germany has pursued integration programs and policies addressing asylum and irregular migration.
Where German-Born Emigrants Live
The U.S. hosts the largest population of German-born emigrants, at 1.1 million, or roughly one in four living abroad.
European countries also feature prominently. Switzerland, the UK, and Austria are among the largest destinations, reflecting geographic proximity, employment opportunities, and established migration links. Türkiye also ranks highly, illustrating how migration between the two countries extends in both directions.
Rank
Destination Country
Share (%)
1
???? US
26.0
2
???? Switzerland
8.7
3
???? Türkiye
8.5
4
???? UK
6.7
5
???? Austria
6.2
6
???? Italy
4.5
7
???? France
4.4
8
???? Spain
4.1
9
???? Netherlands
2.9
10
???? Greece
2.9
These figures differ from annual departure statistics. In 2025, Switzerland, Austria, and Spain were the most common destinations recorded for people moving out of Germany.
***
Tyler Durden
Sun, 10/18/2026 - 08:45 Close
Sun, 18 Oct 2026 12:10:00 +0000 Nine Days From The Dark: What Sixty Million People Learned About Water, Warmth, And Medicine During Spain's Ten-Hour Blackout
Nine Days From The Dark: What Sixty Million People Learned About Water, Warmth, And Medicine During Spain's Ten-Hour Blackout
Nine Days From The Dark: What Sixty Million People Learned About Water, Warmth, And Medicine During Spain's Ten-Hour Blackout
Authored by John Walter via Substack ,
At 12:33 on the afternoon of 28 April 2025, mainland Spain and Portugal lost their electricity supply. Red Eléctrica de España, the Spanish transmission operator, logged the loss of about fifteen gigawatts of generation - close to sixty per cent of Spanish demand at that moment - within seconds. Supply was interrupted for roughly ten hours across most of the peninsula and longer in some districts, affecting an estimated sixty million people. Trains stopped between stations, payment terminals froze, mobile service thinned as tower batteries drained, and water pressure sagged in elevated neighbourhoods.
The final report from ENTSO-E, the European network of transmission operators, published on 20 March 2026, attributed the event to a combination of technical factors and successive generation disconnections rather than to a single fault. Nothing had attacked the Iberian grid, which is part of why the afternoon deserves to be remembered. Every serious rehearsal the industry runs assumes something worse.
Since then the system has not become more forgiving. On 4 May 2026, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation issued a Level 3 "Essential Actions" alert, its highest severity, after a run of incidents in which a thousand megawatts or more of computing load dropped off the bulk power system without warning. NERC's State of Reliability for 2026 recorded conventional forced-outage rates climbing to 9.2 per cent, and documented one event in which data-centre uninterruptible power supplies tripped during an otherwise routine fault and removed 1,800 megawatts in a single movement. By August the subject had reached the New York Times Magazine, where Mark Lauby, NERC's chief engineer, argued that the network's complexity and redundancy made a cascading national collapse "unlikely". Federal regulators have taken a less relaxed view: the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has treated the physical protection of substations as a national security matter since riflemen fired on one in California in 2013.
Alongside the present tense sits evidence that has been produced in public for fifteen years and read almost exclusively inside the industry. Since 2011, NERC's information-sharing arm has run a biennial exercise called GridEx, in which utilities, agencies and cross-border partners respond to a scripted emergency on the real bulk power system, using real spares, real fuel contracts and real staffing. The eighth edition ran on 18 and 19 November 2025 and drew more than three hundred and seventy participating organisations, an increase of nearly fifty per cent over 2023. The scenario was a coordinated cyber and physical attack by a nation-state adversary, with intrusion and physical damage timed to compound each other. The resulting report, published on 2 March 2026 and running to thirty-two pages, concentrated on communication and coordination. What it did not do is establish a restoration timeline. An exercise tests a scenario and shows where assumptions break; it does not measure how long a real outage would last.
A third line of evidence arrives by an entirely different route. A nuclear burst high above the atmosphere produces an electromagnetic pulse in three waves, the slowest of which behaves like a continent-wide geomagnetic storm. The physics was demonstrated by accident in July 1962, when a 1.4-megaton test called Starfish Prime detonated roughly four hundred kilometres above Johnston Atoll and knocked out streetlights in Hawaii, some fifteen hundred kilometres away. Congress commissioned a study in 2001, and its reports, delivered in 2004, 2008 and 2015, produced a figure that never entered public consciousness. William R. Graham, the physicist who chaired the commission and had earlier served as science adviser to Ronald Reagan, testified that if the power went out and stayed out for as long as a year, nine out of ten Americans would be dead - not from the pulse, but from the failure of water treatment, cold storage, fuel distribution and medical care. That number is a scenario projection built on stated assumptions rather than an observation, and it is contested. It is also the only serious estimate anyone has produced.
The difficult question is not whether any of this can happen. It is how much damage a particular event would cause, and how long the repair would take.
What follows, in the order it unfolds:
? How a blackout spreads - the mechanics of a cascade, the four ways an adversary can trigger one, and why transformers set the repair timeline.
??? What a household actually needs - water, temperature, sanitation and medication, then fuel, light, communication, cash and transport.
?? Ten effects of an electromagnetic pulse - the documented history, the physics, and a note on how certain each effect is.
??? A century of blackouts, tabulated - sixty years of documented events, and what the record does and does not show.
?? What the evidence supports - a closing assessment that separates established fact from inference and from speculation.
Cyber intrusion, physical sabotage and geomagnetic disturbance are handled by separate departments with separate budgets, yet all three converge on one object: a network of copper and steel synchronised to sixty cycles per second, carrying very little spare capacity. The sections below follow that object from its mechanics to its failure modes to the ordinary household standing at the end of the chain.
How a Blackout Spreads, and Why Transformers Set the Timeline
North America runs on three electrical islands that barely interact: an Eastern Interconnection reaching from the Rockies to the Atlantic, a Western Interconnection covering the mountain states and the Pacific coast, and a smaller Texas system, ERCOT, which keeps itself deliberately separate. A handful of direct-current ties connect them, each carrying a fraction of total load. Inside each island the arrangement is denser: roughly four hundred and fifty thousand miles of high-voltage transmission, in the order of five and a half million miles of distribution, about fifty-five thousand substations, more than seven thousand generating plants, and - the figure that governs everything downstream - something near two thousand large power transformers rated above a hundred megavolt-amperes.
Alternating current at sixty hertz is a continuously corrected equilibrium. Every generator on an interconnection turns in near-perfect synchrony with every other, and the shared frequency tells each machine whether supply is ahead of demand or behind it. Operators hold frequency within a few hundredths of a hertz of sixty. When supply and demand diverge badly enough, protective relays disconnect pre-arranged blocks of load - deliberately darkening some customers to save the remainder - and if the divergence continues, generators begin tripping in self-defence, which removes supply and drags frequency lower still. The 2003 event removed sixty-one thousand megawatts from the Eastern Interconnection in a few minutes.
Two properties of this equilibrium have changed in ways that reduce margin. Inertia is the first. A heavy spinning rotor resists sudden frequency change the way a loaded truck resists sudden braking, and the coal and nuclear plants that supplied most of that mass are retiring. Solar, wind and batteries are connected through power electronics and have no rotating mass unless programmed to emulate it, which modern equipment does competently but which alters the system's reflexes. The second is the disappearance of slack. For most of the twentieth century, generating capacity grew ahead of demand. Since roughly 2022 the relationship has inverted in the United States, driven by data centres, electrified heating, electric vehicles and onshore manufacturing. The queue of projects waiting to connect has at points exceeded two terawatts of proposed capacity, and only a fraction clears each year.
Introduce an adversary and four categories of attack become relevant. They differ in likelihood, in what they damage, and in how well they have been tested.
Cyber intrusion. Demonstrated at national scale. In December 2015, a coordinated attack on three Ukrainian distribution companies opened breakers remotely and left roughly two hundred and twenty-five thousand customers without power, with operators reduced to re-closing substations by hand. Malware named Industroyer followed a year later, speaking industrial protocols directly; a variant called Industroyer2 was used against the Ukrainian transmission operator in 2022.
Physical sabotage. The template was set on the morning of 16 April 2013, when riflemen near San Jose, California, fired into a Pacific Gas and Electric substation, disabled seventeen transformers, cut fibre-optic cables in an underground vault, and withdrew before dawn. Repair took twenty-seven days and roughly fifteen million dollars.
Coordinated hybrid attack. The GridEx scenario. Cyber operators degrade the monitoring and control systems that tell humans what is happening; physical teams then damage substations chosen because they hold the rest together. The two effects compound, because operators are partly blind exactly when they most need to see.
Electromagnetic and geomagnetic assault. A high-altitude burst, or an unlucky coronal mass ejection, drives quasi-direct currents through long conductors, saturating transformer cores and heating them internally.
Restoration in the first three cases depends less on the wires than on the transformers. A large power transformer is closer to a bespoke building than to a commodity: each unit is designed for its site, with its own voltage ratio, impedance, cooling class, seismic rating and transport dimensions. Cores are stacked from grain-oriented electrical steel, produced in a small number of plants worldwide, and windings are wound under the supervision of experienced operators whose global number is small enough to be treated as a strategic constraint. A finished unit weighs between two hundred and four hundred tonnes and travels on a Schnabel car, a specialised wagon that clamps the transformer into its own frame and lets it hang between the rails, because the load is taller than the loading gauge.
Delivery times have lengthened sharply since 2020. Wood Mackenzie's procurement surveys put standard power transformers at around one hundred and twenty-eight weeks and generator step-up transformers at around one hundred and forty-four weeks, and by early 2026 lead times for the largest units had pushed past one hundred and sixty weeks, with tier-one manufacturers quoting forty-eight to sixty months. A utility that loses a large unit today does not place an order; it joins a queue. Three documented events show what a small trigger can do. On 9 November 1965, a mis-set protective relay near Niagara blacked out thirty million people across the north-eastern United States and Ontario for up to thirteen hours. On 13 July 1977, a lightning strike in Westchester County, compounded by operator error, darkened New York City for up to twenty-five hours. On 14 August 2003, a sagging conductor touching a tree in Ohio, combined with a failed alarm system in one company's control room, cascaded across eight states and Ontario and left fifty-five million people without power for up to two days.
The 2003 sequence is the closest thing to a dress rehearsal the Eastern Interconnection has had. The chain ran for more than an hour while the control room was effectively blind. By the time operators understood the situation, collapse had become irreversible. Restoration took days in places not because the damage was severe - most of it was not - but because restarting a dead grid is a slow, sequential process.
That process has a name. Black start. Bringing power back means forming small islands of generation from units capable of starting without external supply - hydroelectric plants, certain gas turbines with on-site starting capability, a limited number of others - then growing each island by adding load in blocks while matching generation to it, and finally synchronising islands together. NERC designates a modest number of black-start resources per interconnection, and the procedure is rehearsed because it is unforgiving. When equipment is intact, black start is measured in hours to a couple of days. When equipment is damaged, the constraint changes.
Sustained overvoltage or geomagnetically induced current damages transformers in ways that stay invisible for weeks. The usual mechanism is hot-spot heating: induced current drives the core into saturation, the unit draws reactive power, windings heat locally, and dissolved gas comes out of the insulating oil as bubbles. A bubble in the wrong place degrades insulation, and the degradation can produce a dielectric failure when the transformer is energised again. A unit that survives the event may fail a month later, which is why utilities sample dissolved gas in transformer oil after any significant geomagnetic disturbance.
What the exercises genuinely established, as opposed to what they are often said to establish, is a set of unresolved dependencies: fuel supply for standby generators, telecommunications that work without commercial power, spares that do not exist, and mutual-aid arrangements that assume the neighbour has capacity to spare. The GridEx VIII report of March 2026 grouped these under communication and collaboration, and its recommendations are procedural rather than technical. Whether that translates into a fortnight or a month in a real event depends on how much equipment fails, which is exactly the variable the exercises cannot fix.
Documented major blackouts, 1965 to 2026
Two things stand out in that table, and a third does not. Landmark events have become more frequent: roughly one per decade in the 1960s and 1970s, two in the 1990s, and several per decade after 2000. Average duration has also drifted upward, though the evidence for this is weaker than the frequency trend, because definitions of a "major" event and reporting standards have changed over sixty years. What the table does not show is any simple trend in severity, and that is worth saying plainly: the sample is small, the events differ enormously in cause, and comparing a 1965 relay failure with a 2012 monsoon-driven collapse is not like for like
What a Household Actually Needs During a Long Outage
Survival advice has a poor reputation, partly because it is usually sold rather than explained and partly because it is framed around wilderness scenarios most people never encounter. A grid-down event is a municipal scenario. The environment does not change; the systems do. What a household needs is the ability to substitute, for a fortnight, functions that municipalities and markets normally perform invisibly.
Water. A person can go roughly three weeks without eating and about three days without drinking, and in heat the second figure falls. The planning number is one gallon per person per day for drinking and basic hygiene - twenty-eight gallons for a fortnight - but the figure misleads in both directions, because a domestic hot-water cylinder holds thirty to fifty gallons of drinkable water, a toilet cistern holds another three, and municipal pressure usually persists for a day or two, which is time to fill containers. Water from a hot-water cylinder should be drawn from the drain tap, allowed to cool, and disinfected if there is any doubt. Water in a toilet cistern is usually drinkable provided no chemical cleaner has been added; water in the bowl is not.
Disinfection needs more care than most guides give it. The standard field dose is two drops of plain, unscented household bleach per litre of clear water, or eight drops per gallon, using bleach of about five to six per cent sodium hypochlorite. Double the dose if the water is cloudy, and allow thirty minutes of contact before drinking. Bleach sold as "concentrated" at around eight per cent needs proportionally less, and bleach loses strength as it ages, so the label and the age of the bottle both matter. Household bleach must be plain: nothing scented, nothing thickened, nothing with added detergent.
Temperature. Extreme heat and cold account for much of the illness and death in prolonged outages, though the proportions vary with climate and season, and the two cases are not symmetrical. Cold kills slowly and indoors; heat kills faster and falls hardest on the elderly, particularly in flats where cross-ventilation is theoretical. Useful preparations are unglamorous: sleeping bags rated for the actual climate, layers, a carbon-monoxide alarm, and a small indoor-rated propane heater used according to its instructions. A tent pitched indoors raises the temperature of the space around it, and one room can be closed off and occupied rather than the whole house heated.
Sanitation. Waste that cannot leave a building becomes an odour, then a hygiene problem, then a disease vector, and the problem usually arrives around the fourth day. A five-gallon bucket, a supply of bags, and a covering of sawdust or earth handles it, and separating solid from liquid makes the arrangement far more manageable. Hand-washing with stored water and soap matters more than any other single measure, and it is the one most often skipped when water is heavy and scarce.
Medication. Insulin that is already in use can usually be kept at room temperature for up to twenty-eight days, depending on the product, but unopened supplies should be refrigerated where possible; freezing damages it, and heat and direct sunlight shorten its life. Oxygen concentrators need electricity, which means a battery or a small generator. Dialysis is a three-times-weekly dependency with no home substitute for most patients, and dialysis units draw heavily. CPAP machines, nebulisers, blood-pressure monitors and the routine prescriptions that expire on a fixed date rather than a convenient one all sit inside the outage rather than outside it. Paper copies of prescriptions, a written medication list and a fortnight's buffer of anything essential is a larger intervention than it sounds, and any household managing a chronic condition should confirm the details with its own clinician rather than rely on general guidance.
Everything beyond those four is logistics, and the useful way to think about it is by dependency rather than by category.
Fuel. Petrol pumps need power, so stored quantity and a way to move it matter. Household generators consume between half a gallon and a gallon an hour, which means a five-gallon can lasts less than a working day. Stabiliser extends petrol storage to about a year; diesel stores longer; propane stores indefinitely and does not gum carburettors. Petrol should be kept in approved containers away from ignition sources, and generators must run outdoors, never in a closed garage, because carbon monoxide is invisible and the exhaust is lethal.
Cooking. A camp stove, adequate ventilation and a stock of fuel. A charcoal grill works outdoors. An open fire indoors works only if the flue actually draws, and even then it needs ventilation and an alarm; a blocked or poorly maintained chimney can fill a room with smoke and carbon monoxide while appearing to work.
Light. Head torches beat hand torches because they free both hands, and LED efficiency means batteries last. Candles are pleasant and dangerous; a candle knocked over in a dark house is a real fire risk.
Communication. Mobile towers carry four to eight hours of battery before needing refuelling, so the useful window is short. A battery or hand-crank radio tuned to a national broadcaster is the most reliable information source in a wide-area outage. Licence-free handhelds cover a neighbourhood; a licensed amateur operator covers more.
Cash. Small denominations, because nobody can make change when the till is a biscuit tin. Card terminals, cash machines and bank branches all depend on the same network, and payroll depends on the same banks.
Transport. Signals go dark, so intersections become four-way stops and some drivers will not know the convention. Trams and metros stop. Electric vehicles become immobile once the battery runs down unless there is generation on site, though a charged EV can also serve as a domestic power bank for days with the right equipment.
Food storage is where expectation and reality diverge most. A refrigerator keeps food safe for about four hours if the door stays shut; after that, perishables that have spent more than two hours above about four degrees Celsius should be discarded, which is a stricter rule than most people apply. A full freezer holds temperature for about forty-eight hours, a half-full one for twenty-four, and frozen food can be refrozen if it still contains ice crystals or has stayed at or below four degrees. A fridge thermometer removes the guesswork, and the correct response to a thaw is to cook what thawed first and eat it first. The real answer to food security is shelf-stable stock - rice, pulses, tinned goods, oil, salt, sugar - plus a rotation habit that stops the stock becoming archaeology.
Three documented events show how differently the social dimension plays out, and none of them proves anything about human nature. In New York on 13 July 1977, darkness coincided with a heatwave and a fiscal crisis, and roughly sixteen hundred shops were looted with nearly four thousand arrests. Across a larger and wealthier area on 14 August 2003, looting was almost an afterthought and the dominant memory is of strangers directing traffic at dead intersections. In Texas in February 2021, the blackout arrived with freezing temperatures, burst pipes and a simultaneous gas-supply failure; the state's official death toll was at least two hundred and ten, with independent analyses higher, and the causes were overwhelmingly thermal and cardiovascular rather than social.
Days three through fourteen are the part that resists preparation, because improvisation exhausts itself before anything is rebuilt. Three things make the period survivable. Knowing neighbours is the first, since most serious problems - a broken generator, a medical need, a shared water source, a security rotation - are solved socially rather than individually. A routine that is not merely waiting is the second, because morale depletes like any other resource. The third is having accepted the situation in advance, which sounds trivial and is not: people who spend the first week expecting the lights to come back suffer more than those who do not.
Ten Effects of an Electromagnetic Pulse, and How Certain Each One Is
The pulse arrives in three acts, and conflating them causes most of the confusion about the threat. The first, called E1, is a spike of electric field lasting nanoseconds to microseconds, produced when gamma rays from a high-altitude burst strip electrons from air molecules and those electrons are deflected by the Earth's magnetic field. The second, E2, lasts microseconds to about a second and resembles a close lightning strike, which is why ordinary surge protection sometimes copes with it. The third, E3, unfolds over seconds to minutes and matters most for infrastructure: a slow magnetic perturbation, functionally identical in effect to a geomagnetic storm, that drives quasi-direct currents through long conductors.
Simplified accounts often say that E1 kills electronics and E3 kills transformers. That is a useful shorthand and a slightly misleading one. Whether a given piece of equipment fails depends on field intensity, on how the equipment is coupled to the field, on the length and orientation of connected conductors, and on whatever protection was built in. Equipment in a shielded enclosure with short cable runs may be untouched; equipment attached to a long overhead line may not. The shorthand describes a mechanism, not a guarantee.
The empirical base is thin and old, which is part of why the threat is under-argued rather than over-argued. Starfish Prime in July 1962 produced effects at a distance nobody had predicted: streetlights failed in Hawaii, some fifteen hundred kilometres away, and several satellites were damaged. The Carrington event of 1859 lit auroras near the equator and set telegraph offices alight. A storm in May 1921, remembered as the New York Railroad Storm, induced currents strong enough to cause fires in railway signalling equipment. The storm of March 1989 collapsed the Hydro-Québec system in ninety seconds and left six million people without power for nine hours, damaging a transformer in New Jersey and another in the United Kingdom. The Halloween storms of October 2003 damaged transformers in Sweden and South Africa. On 23 July 2012 a coronal mass ejection of Carrington-class intensity crossed the Earth's orbit and missed by about nine days. A study published that year in the journal Space Weather put the probability of a Carrington-class event within a decade at roughly twelve per cent, an estimate that has now had a decade in which to be wrong.
The congressional EMP Commission, chaired by William R. Graham, delivered reports in 2004, 2008 and 2015. Its central finding has not been refuted, though it has been argued with. A high-altitude burst over the continental United States could damage the grid badly enough to produce a blackout measured in months rather than days, and in that circumstance the commission concluded that nine out of ten Americans could be dead within a year. Two caveats belong with that number. It assumes a worst-case burst, a long outage and no effective improvisation. And it is a modelling result, not a record. A past chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission put the physical version of the same problem in a sentence worth remembering: attacks on fewer than a dozen major substations could produce protracted, widespread blackouts.
What follows is a list of ten effects, ranked by how badly each one disrupts ordinary life rather than by how dramatic it sounds. Each entry carries a rough confidence marker.
1. Transformer damage (high confidence on mechanism, low on quantity). The E3 wave and its geomagnetic twin push direct current through transformer windings, saturating cores and causing localised overheating. Because a unit that survives may fail on re-energisation, damage often reveals itself late. With roughly two thousand large units in the United States, a spare ratio in the low single digits and lead times past a hundred and sixty weeks, simultaneous damage to a hundred units becomes a multi-year reconstruction programme. How many units would actually fail in a given storm is genuinely disputed; utilities have argued that the worst-case literature overstates the risk, and the 1989 and 2003 storms caused less fleet damage than some predictions implied.
2. Loss of timing (high confidence). Almost nothing in the modern economy keeps its own time. Financial exchanges, mobile networks, substation automation and data centres derive clocks from GPS, and GPS satellites sit directly in the E1 environment. Losing the reference clock does not stop electricity, but it corrupts transactions and logs and scrambles the sequencing that distributed systems use to agree on what happened and in what order.
3. Water stops moving (high confidence). Treatment works, borehole pumps, booster stations and sewage lift stations need continuous electricity. The reservoir is full; the machinery that moves it is not. Waste that cannot be lifted flows where gravity permits and backs up where it does not.
4. The cold chain breaks (high confidence). Refrigeration is the least romantic and most consequential technology in the food system. Meat, dairy, produce and frozen goods move through chilled warehouses and trucks, all of which need power, and the chain has very little buffer. Insulin, vaccines and blood products sit in the same category.
5. Hospitals exhaust fuel (high confidence). Hospitals are among the best-prepared institutions in any society, and the preparation is finite: generators holding a few days of fuel, deliveries that depend on pumps and trucks, and staff who must reach work through dark streets. Dialysis, surgery, imaging and intensive care become scheduling problems with no good solution.
6. Nuclear plants lose offsite power (high confidence). A shut-down reactor still generates decay heat and still needs pumped cooling, supplied from the grid or from on-site diesel generators. Fukushima Daiichi in 2011 was, in part, a story about diesel generators that were flooded - an offsite-power-loss scenario in all but name. Spent fuel pools on the same sites carry the same dependency.
7. Money stops circulating (moderate confidence). Cash survives a pulse; payment terminals do not. Banks, cash machines, card readers, payroll systems and clearing houses all live on networks, and networks need power and timing. Within days the economy reverts to whatever physical currency people happen to be carrying, and the informal economy that forms around it is fast, local and unregulated.
8. Substitute technologies fail too (moderate confidence). Rooftop solar with a battery is genuinely useful in an outage, but most grid-tied inverters shut down when the grid does unless they have islanding capability and a transfer switch. Electric vehicles become immobile when they run out and cannot be refuelled from a can. Modern cars carry dozens of microprocessors, and while many will survive, the ones that do not become parked furniture.
9. Communications fail in sequence (moderate confidence). Mobile networks fail first, as towers exhaust their batteries. Fibre backbones fail next, because the amplifiers along them need power even though the fibre itself does not. Landlines survive longest where they still exist, since old copper pairs carry their own power from the exchange.
10. The sky changes (high confidence, low consequence). A geomagnetic storm can produce auroras at latitudes that have not seen one in living memory. Visibility of an aurora, however, says nothing about whether the grid has suffered damage; the two are related but not equivalent.
Taken together, the honest summary is this. The mechanism of an electromagnetic pulse is well understood and has been observed at small scale. The consequences for a continental grid are modelled rather than observed. The modelling has been done by serious people, reviewed and repeated, and it keeps arriving at the same order of magnitude. That is not proof. It is the best available basis for planning.
What the Evidence Supports, and What It Leaves Open
Four things can be stated with reasonable confidence. The grid is a tightly coupled system with declining margin, and it has failed at continental scale several times in living memory. Damage to large transformers is the binding constraint on recovery, because the units are bespoke, the spare pool is thin and the lead times are now measured in years. There are at least four credible ways to cause such damage, and three of them have been demonstrated in the field. A prolonged outage propagates into water, sanitation, medicine and food in ways that are well documented and only partially rehearsed.
Three things remain open. The first is quantity: how much equipment would fail in a given event, which is the difference between an unpleasant fortnight and a bad year. The second is timing: whether a serious event arrives as a cyber operation, a physical strike, a solar storm or an accident, and whether any of them coincide with a period of low spare capacity. The third is behaviour: how institutions and households actually respond, which no exercise can fully predict because exercises have observers.
Two further points deserve care, because both are commonly overstated.
That blackouts have become more frequent does not by itself prove they will become more severe. The frequency trend is reasonably supported by the record since the 1960s, though reporting standards have changed. The severity trend is weaker, resting on a small sample of heterogeneous events, and anyone who claims a clear direction of travel is extrapolating.
That the EMP Commission estimated nine deaths in ten does not mean nine deaths in ten should be expected. The figure comes from a specific scenario - a worst-case burst, a year-long outage, an economy unable to substitute - and it was produced by a commission with a mandate to characterise risk. Graham's own framing, that nine out of ten would be dead if the power stayed out for a year, is deliberately conditional. It describes what happens when nothing goes right, and is offered as a planning envelope rather than a forecast.
What the drills, the history and the physics have in common is narrower and more useful than catastrophe. They all describe a system in which the failure mode is ordinary. Nothing collapses dramatically; a sequence of manageable failures accumulates until the list of things that can be taken for granted is empty. In 2003 the trigger was a tree and a broken alarm. In 2021 it was cold weather and a gas system that could not keep up. In 2025 it was a voltage oscillation on a sunny afternoon. In each case the mechanism was mundane and the consequence was large.
The last ordinary Tuesday has not happened yet, and the useful preparation does not depend on knowing which Tuesday it will be. Water, warmth, sanitation, medication, fuel, a radio and neighbours cover the great majority of what a fortnight without power actually demands, whether the cause turns out to be a sniper, a worm, a sunspot or a mis-set relay.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 10/18/2026 - 08:10 Close
Sun, 18 Oct 2026 11:35:00 +0000 US Quietly Shifts MQ-9 Reapers Into South America
US Quietly Shifts MQ-9 Reapers Into South America
South America's rightward shift has created a more favorable environment for the Trump administration to expand its influence across the Western Hemisphere. A victory by right-wing
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US Quietly Shifts MQ-9 Reapers Into South America
South America's rightward shift has created a more favorable environment for the Trump administration to expand its influence across the Western Hemisphere. A victory by right-wing Flávio Bolsonaro over unhinged socialist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Brazil's runoff election later this month would cement the shift across the continent.
The next test is whether those political gains translate into deeper trade and military cooperation. On the military side, those partnerships are expanding in the war against narcoterrorists.
Joint military activity has already broadened this year, and the reported transfer of US MQ-9 Reaper drones to Colombia and Ecuador suggests preparations for a broader campaign, according to The New York Times .
According to the report, the U.S. military is transferring MQ-9 Reaper drones from Africa, and this was first reported by CNN last month.
Ecuador's defense minister, Gian Carlo Loffredo, was quoted by NYTimes earlier today, saying two Reapers are already operating in the country. Colombian officials have previously outlined plans to receive three of these Group 5 drones.
The outlined plans show how Colombia and Ecuador are partnering with the U.S. military to wage a fight against narcoterrorists that were allowed to thrive under previous left-wing governments:
Ecuador's president, Daniel Noboa, was the first regional leader to allow joint military operations in his country this year and has recently faced scrutiny over the presence of U.S. troops at one base. Ecuador's Constitution bars foreign military bases in the country, a prohibition voters affirmed in a referendum last year.
Colombia's new right-wing president, Abelardo De La Espriella, has launched an aggressive military effort targeting leaders of several groups said to be involved in cocaine trafficking.
The likely mission for the Reapers will be intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (known in the defense world as ISR). These operations would likely be used to track cartel leaders and support potential strikes on land.
Reported losses of at least 45 Reapers, or roughly a quarter of the U.S. fleet, in the Iran conflict only suggest the urgent need for low-cost Group 5 drones.
As we have previously highlighted, DZYNE Technologies' ULTRA platform, now part of Ondas , could complement or replace the Reaper on selected ISR missions as military orders expand. It could provide persistent surveillance while preserving armed Reapers for critical strike missions.
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Tyler Durden
Sun, 10/18/2026 - 07:35 Close