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Ukrainian President Zelensky is undertaking a dramatic cabinet reshuffle, at a moment Kiev sees itself as having military momentum against Russia with its non-stop drone assaults on Russian energy sites.

The country's Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko has confirmed Sunday her shock resignation, which has come as a major surprise to many lawmakers and unleashed speculation about what's behind it. She has held the office since July 2025, and helped spearhead major reconstruction funding deals with the United States and Europe.

Svyrydenko announced on social media she was "proud to have had the honor of leading the government during one of the most difficult periods in Ukraine’s modern history."

She further described that she discussed "next steps" with Zelensky but without providing any details. "I remain ready to serve the Ukrainian state and carry out every task aimed at strengthening Ukraine’s position, defending our national interests and bringing a just peace closer," she said.

According to a backgrounder on Svyrydenko:

Svyrydenko, Ukraine’s former economy minister, was named prime minister in July 2025 at the age of 39 after playing a lead role in securing a mineral agreement between Ukraine and the U.S., seen as an important way of tying U.S. interests to Ukraine’s security.

...He also said he had offered Svyrydenko the opportunity to lead “a new, important area” in Ukraine’s relations with a key international partner.

One unnamed Ukrainian lawmaker conceded to national media that "It's a strange situation" given that "Cabinet resignations are generally a last resort."

The official continued, "They're usually something you would expect in the fall, when the political season begins, and people expect some political changes, since there are no elections."

"Maybe there are some extraordinary reasons for the reshuffle... It looks like a preemptive move," the person added, while expressing that lawmakers sees no obvious reason behind the prime minister's removal.

Zelensky in a statement suggested a broader government overhaul is underway. "Ukraine is changing its political strategy."

Refusing to have an election but has announced more shake ups than the election he has had.

— ????????//Benedikt (@BenediktSuarez) July 12, 2026

"The Cabinet of Ministers needs to be renewed," Zelensky said. "Each priority area of foreign policy will be assigned to a specific person with substantial experience who is capable of implementing what we agree on at the leaders’ level and what the Ukrainian people expect," he described further of an impending reshuffle. Who is next on the chopping block?

Via Remix News,

French political figure Éric Zemmour is arguing that robotics represents the true economic future of France, offering a technological solution to labor shortages in factories and farms rather than relying on mass immigration.

“Robotics is the economic future of France. Robots will provide our factories and our farmers with the arms they are missing. France can choose technology rather than migratory submersion through work. For an eternal, powerful, and sovereign France in modernity: more robots, fewer immigrants,” wrote Zemmour on X.

Zemmour’s post directly references an interview conducted by French outlet Le Journal du Dimanche with Éric Marchiol, Renault’s director of industrial metaverse and quality.

In the interview, Marchiol detailed Renault’s development of Calvin, a new humanoid robot created in partnership with French company Wandercraft. Designed for industrial environments, Calvin is compact, capable of handling heavy loads of up to 40 kilograms (88 pounds), and adaptable to real factory conditions — such as navigating uneven packaging or small steps on assembly lines.

Renault already operates around 11,000 traditional industrial robots and 8,000 autonomous guided vehicles. The Calvin robot represents the next generation: more flexible, intelligent, and space-efficient than older fixed-arm systems. The company is testing it for repetitive, physically demanding tasks like tire handling on fast-moving production lines.

Marchiol emphasized that robotization is essential for competitiveness: “Without automation and without robotization, there is no more competitive industry.” He noted France currently has about 190 robots per 10,000 workers — significantly behind China at 380 and Germany.

The goal, he said, is to deploy these humanoid robots widely across Renault and its suppliers within the next four to five years, targeting difficult-to-fill, physically strenuous jobs.

Robots over mass immigration

As Remix News has extensively reported over the last years, automation, robotics, and now artificial intelligence are increasingly seen as the primary solution to labor shortages, and mass immigration may even hinder the development of these technologies. Western employers, instead of developing this groundbreaking technology to work in factories and agriculture, are often still relying on human labor promised to them by Western liberal leaders. Often, this human labor comes with enormous welfare and cultural assimilation costs.

Zemmour, like many others, is pointing to this automation drive as the real solution to labor shortages. He wrote that Renault’s initiative as proof that France can solve its industrial labor gaps through innovation instead of large-scale immigration.

Remix News has run a series entitled “the big immigration lie” detailing the shift in thinking on immigration, with the Asian countries serving as the main counter example to Europe’s present course of open borders. Instead of embracing cheap labor and millions of culturally alien immigrants, Asian countries like Japan, China, South Korea, and Taiwan have focused on their native populations and implementing harsh immigration restrictions.

These Asians countries now lead in many areas over Europe, including AI, robotics, renewable energies, electric cars, and automation technology in factories.

Larry Fink, the CEO of BlackRock and arguably one of the most powerful men on the planet, openly said last year that the countries with xenophobic immigration policies are going to have a higher standard of living, faster productivity growth, and will be better able to accommodate the social impact of artificial intelligence advances over the coming years.

“You know, we always used to think shrinking population is a cause for negative growth. But in my conversations with the leadership of these large developed countries that have xenophobic immigration policies, they don’t allow anybody to come in, shrinking unemployment, excuse me, shrinking demographics. These countries will rapidly develop robotics and AI and technology. And if the promise, I didn’t say it’s going to happen, but as a promise of all that transforms productivity, which most of us think it will, we’ll be able to elevate the standard of living of countries and the standard of living of individuals even with shrinking populations,” said Fink.

“And so the paradigm of negative population growth is going to be changing. And the social problems that one will have in substituting humans for machines is going to be far easier in those countries that have declining populations,” he said.

When Fink talks about xenophobic countries, he is talking about countries like South Korea, China, and Japan, where robotics and AI are being used to deal with the demographic situation instead of mass immigration. 

Read more here...

Americans are increasingly reaching major life milestones later than previous generations, and parenthood is no exception.

While overall U.S. fertility rates have fallen for decades, births among women over 40 are moving in the opposite direction. Rising education levels, delayed marriage, and high housing costs have all contributed to a growing share of women waiting longer to have children.

Using newly published research based on National Vital Statistics System data, this map, via Visual Capitalist's Dorothy Neufeld, shows where births among women ages 40–49 are most common across the country.

Births After 40 Are Growing Nationwide

For the first time, women over 40 are having more babies than teenagers. Since 1990, the share of U.S. births to women 40 and older has more than tripled, reaching 4.3% in 2025, while birth rates among women ages 40–49 rose 24% over the past decade.

The table below highlights where births among women ages 40–49 were most common in 2024. Washington, D.C., recorded the highest rate in the nation at 13.6 births per 1,000 women, followed by New York, New Jersey, and Hawaii.

State	Births per 1,000 Women 2015 (Ages 40-49)	Births per 1,000 Women 2024 (Ages 40-49)	% Change
District of Columbia	13.1	13.6	4%
New York	8.3	10.5	27%
New Jersey	7.4	9.8	32%
Hawaii	8.6	9.7	13%
California	8.4	9.6	14%
Maryland	7.0	9.2	31%
Massachusetts	6.9	9.0	30%
Connecticut	6.0	8.5	42%
Virginia	6.3	8.0	27%
Delaware	5.0	7.8	56%
Alaska	5.8	7.7	33%
Washington	6.4	7.6	19%
Florida	5.8	7.5	29%
Colorado	6.1	7.3	20%
Minnesota	5.5	7.3	33%
Rhode Island	5.2	7.2	38%
Illinois	6.0	6.9	15%
Texas	5.9	6.8	15%
Georgia	5.3	6.5	23%
Nebraska	5.5	6.5	18%
Nevada	6.0	6.5	8%
Utah	6.4	6.5	2%
Pennsylvania	4.7	6.4	36%
Oregon	5.8	6.3	9%
Vermont	3.7	6.3	70%
North Carolina	4.6	6.2	35%
Arizona	5.7	6.1	7%
Idaho	5.2	6.1	17%
New Hampshire	4.2	6.0	43%
South Dakota	4.8	5.8	21%
Maine	3.5	5.7	63%
North Dakota	4.5	5.7	27%
South Carolina	4.1	5.7	39%
Wisconsin	4.3	5.6	30%
Tennessee	3.8	5.5	45%
Indiana	4.0	5.4	35%
Kansas	4.6	5.4	17%
Iowa	4.0	5.3	33%
Michigan	4.2	5.3	26%
Montana	4.9	5.3	8%
Ohio	4.0	5.2	30%
New Mexico	4.3	5.1	19%
Louisiana	3.9	5.0	28%
Missouri	3.7	4.9	32%
Kentucky	3.4	4.6	35%
Alabama	3.1	4.5	45%
Oklahoma	4.0	4.5	13%
Wyoming	4.4	4.5	2%
Arkansas	3.3	4.3	30%
Mississippi	2.8	3.8	36%
West Virginia	2.9	3.3	14%
???? U.S. Average	5.8	7.2	24%

Many of the highest-ranking states are both highly educated and expensive, with steep housing costs increasingly delaying homeownership and parenthood.

By contrast, Southern states account for seven of the 10 lowest birth rates among women in their 40s, including West Virginia, Mississippi, and Arkansas. Still, most have seen double-digit growth since 2015, highlighting how later parenthood is rising even in lower-rate states.

How Education Is Reshaping America’s Birth Rates

The average age of first-time mothers reached a record 27.5 years in 2023, rising from 21 in 1972.

Compared with previous decades, Americans are also spending more years in higher education. With more time spent attaining degrees and advancing their careers, women are increasingly deferring childbirth into their 30s and 40s.

Researchers have also found that older parents often bring greater financial resources. Studies suggest that children of older mothers perform better on math and behavioral assessments, largely due to higher levels of parental education and income rather than age itself.

Later Parenthood Is Becoming More Visible

Births after 40 remain uncommon compared with women in their 20s or 30s. Yet their rapid growth highlights how much the timeline of adulthood has changed.

Previous generations often married, purchased homes, and started families in their 20s. Today, many Americans spend longer pursuing education, building careers, and saving for housing before reaching those milestones.

As those timelines shift, later parenthood is becoming a more visible part of the American family landscape.

To learn more about this topic, check out this graphic on the cost of raising a child in every state.

update(2210ET): The Pentagon has confirmed late in the day Sunday that US forces have continues launching more strikes on Iran throughout the day, describing that the latest wave of strikes are aimed to "degrade Iran's ability to attack civilian mariners."

US Central Command has been providing more frequent updates throughout the day, as the conflict intensifies. "At 5 p.m. ET today, U.S. Central Command forces began launching more strikes against Iran to continue degrading their ability to attack civilian mariners and commercial ships freely transiting the Strait of Hormuz," it stated. "The Commander in Chief has directed the strikes to hold Iranian forces accountable." According to some emerging targeting info:

• Direct hits reported on US Navy's 5th Fleet HQ in Bahrain: WSN and Noor News
• Explosion reported at US bases in Kuwait: Tasnim
• Explosions have also been heard in Iran’s Qeshm Island as well as Jask, state TV is reporting.
• Iran’s state TV is reporting explosions near Sirik and west of Bandar Abbas.
• CNN: Within past hour, IRGC fired at commercial shipping
• Trump was on NBC’s Meet the Press a few hours ago, and described Saturday’s US strikes on the Iranian military by saying, “We bombed the hell out of them.”

And more of the latest from Trump:

Also Sunday, President Donald Trump told NBC’s “Meet the Press” that the strait was open to commercial traffic.

“It’s open. We bombed the hell out of them last night. They’re very, very evil and sick people,” Trump said. He said that the Iranians agreed to “a perfect deal for us” the day prior — “no nuclear, no this, no that, no nothing. They gave up everything.”

“And then after that, they left the room. And then within an hour, they launched a drone at a ship,” Trump said.

US Navy 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain reported struck by Iranian ballistic missiles this weekend:

Smoke can be seen rising over the (mostly abandoned) US 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain after this morning's Iranian missile attack. pic.twitter.com/Qux9Xi3pvo

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) July 12, 2026

In the meantime The Washington Post has on Sunday issued an investigative report from the opening days of the war. Washington Post on Sunday is reporting that six Americans were killed in an Iranian drone attack on Kuwait during the second day of sustained exchanges of fire, on March 1st. Military sources cited in WaPo allege this was after American military commanders failed to act on warnings that the targeted facility was vulnerable. The emerging details point toward a severe failure of operational oversight:

Exclusive: Six soldiers died on day two of the Iran war in a drone strike on Port Shuaiba, Kuwait. Dozens more were wounded, some seriously.

It's one of the war's costliest attacks for U.S. personnel — and survivors fear no one will be held accountable. https://t.co/jBXpUs3bZz

— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) July 12, 2026

Update 1210ET. 

The escalation cycle intensified overnight and into early Sunday as the US conducted its third round of strikes this week, while Iran enforced its declared closure of the Strait of Hormuz and launched retaliatory attacks across multiple Gulf states.

CENTCOM confirmed strikes began around 7:15 p.m. ET Saturday night, hitting approximately 140 Iranian military targets. These focused on degrading IRGC capabilities to threaten commercial shipping, including radars, missile/drone sites, launch systems, and coastal assets. Explosions were widely reported in southern and eastern Iran, with state media noting activity in Bandar Abbas, Sirik, Qeshm, Bushehr, Asalouyeh, Jask (10+ blasts), Minab, and other areas. Some unconfirmed reports indicated strikes reached farther north toward Tehran, with Iranian air defenses active over the capital.

A massive plume of smoke can be seen rising from Qeshm Island following heavy U.S. airstrikes.

According to Axios, missile and air defense systems as well as IRGC speedboats were targeted in the attack. https://t.co/8Svlz532Rh pic.twitter.com/E8Efuvboq5

— MoloMonitor ???? (@MoloWarMonitor) July 12, 2026

The immediate trigger was the IRGC attack on the Cyprus-flagged container ship M/V GFS Galaxy in the Strait of Hormuz. The vessel suffered significant engine-room damage and fire; the crew abandoned ship in lifeboats, with one civilian crew member reported missing. Iran described it as a "warning shot" on an unauthorized route.

Iranian Response And Hormuz Closure

The IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz closed "until further notice" and until the end of "American interventions." Tehran framed its actions as defensive and retaliatory, launching ballistic missiles and drones at US-linked targets in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan (including Muwaffaq Salti Airbase), and Oman.

Footage shows a massive plume of smoke following the impact of multiple Iranian ballistic missiles in Kuwait.

According to my sources, the target of this attack are U.S. HIMARS ground-based missile systems, which were used last night against southern Iran. pic.twitter.com/34SS1psjZM

— MoloMonitor ???? (@MoloWarMonitor) July 12, 2026

Reports noted multiple salvos, with some impacts claimed at Jordanian facilities housing US assets (e.g., potential F-35 hangars). Gulf states reported interceptions and minor damage in places.

Wow

???? Prince Hassan Air Base in Jordan appears to have suffered major damage from Iranian strikes

Today’s satellite imagery shows a destroyed hangar and major ground disturbances across the apron, likely where US drones were housed. It also appears the runway was directly hit. https://t.co/GRTTx89cN3 pic.twitter.com/Q8K0S2ikAo

— Egypt's Intel Observer (@EGYOSINT) July 12, 2026

Leadership And Diplomatic Context

President Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth emphasized accountability, with statements underscoring that violations would carry costs. On the Iranian side, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei reiterated calls for revenge, tying them to national sentiment following the funeral observances for his father. The June Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) appears effectively suspended, with both sides accusing the other of bad faith. Qatari-mediated contacts continue but show no breakthrough, as Iran insists the US must first fulfill commitments on Hormuz transit and oil exports.

This round represents the most significant breach of the fragile ceasefire to date, with risks to global energy flows heightened by the Hormuz closure. Oil prices remain volatile amid the uncertainty. Casualty figures from the latest strikes are still emerging (Iranian reports cite deaths and injuries), and the situation continues to evolve rapidly. Further monitoring of CENTCOM, IRGC statements, and regional air defense activity is critical, as both sides signal readiness for sustained pressure while leaving narrow diplomatic off-ramps.

* * *

Update 10:40pm ET.

Somewhat predictably, as has been the pattern of this war - Iran is in the very early morning hours (local) launching retaliatory strikes on Arab Gulf nations, or as the Iranians say against US assets and bases in the Gulf. Per state media:

IRAN LAUNCHES SERIES OF STRIKES AGAINST US TARGETS: PRESS TV

Last week Kuwait and Bahrain were favored targets, but there are signs that Iran - now with reports of Tehran having been hit tonight (CBS) - could begin widening its attacks to include the UAE, or even potentially the Saudis (though there have yet to be signs of this). 

What's clear is that things are back to square one - with the MoU agreement clearly effectively dead, unless diplomacy gets into overdrive and both sides show some measure of restraint. But restraint is not evident currently, only a widening up the escalation ladder.

Iran has fired 12 Ballisitc Missiles towards Muwaffaq Salti Airbase in Jordan

Reports of 3 impacts.

The reason they aimed there could be for the F-35s parked there. We shall see. I was expecting them to aim for Bahrain or Kuwait. pic.twitter.com/zfYEJmTW3a

— Ryan Rozbiani (@RyanRozbiani) July 12, 2026

To recount from where we started Saturday morning, we wrote...

As for the big picture of where things stand, University of Chicago political scientist Robert Pape, who authors "The Escalation Trap," has pointed out that that the millions of Iranians who took to the streets last week to attend the late Ayatollah's funeral demonstrate growing nationalist resolve. He explained that this only makes further escalation more likely later this summer, as public sentiment gets hardened against the US.

"The balance of military capabilities did not change over the weekend," Pape said. "The balance of political will shifted."

Referencing the now unraveling ceasefire and negotiations process, Pape is predicting: "The pause appears to be another stage in the escalation process rather than the beginning of de-escalation." 

*  *  *

Update 8:40pm ET.

At 7:15pm ET, the US launched its third round of strikes on Iran this week after Tehran declared that it’s closing the Strait of Hormuz “until further notice", and Iranian forces attacked a Cyprus-flagged container ship, the M/V GFS Galaxy, transiting the Strait of Hormuz. 

US Central Command said that President Donald Trump ordered the fresh strikes, which targeted Iran’s ability to attack commercial vessels, after the latest Iranian attack on the Hormuz-crossing vessel. Central Command said a civilian crew member is missing and the ship was unable to continue its journey after suffering significant damage.

At 7:15 p.m. ET today, U.S. Central Command forces began launching the third round of strikes this week against Iran after Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces blatantly attacked M/V GFS Galaxy, a Cyprus-flagged container ship transiting the Strait of Hormuz. A civilian crew…

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) July 11, 2026

Shortly after the Iran’s state-run media reported explosions at multiple areas along the country’s southern coasts, including the energy and petrochemical hubs of Bushehr and Asalouyeh. Blasts were also reported at the port cities of Bandar Abbas and Bandar-e Dayyer, as well as the Sirik area near the Strait of Hormuz.

BREAKING: The IRNA news agency says more than 10 explosions have been heard in the port city of Jask in the southern Hormozgan province.

?? LIVE updates: https://t.co/sfnZg9WSSH pic.twitter.com/FAzm8nC9ou

— Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) July 12, 2026

According to unconfirmed reports, the US strikes on Iran have reached all the way north to the Capital of Iran, Tehran as the US goes "full scale from bases in Kuwait and Bahrain."

CBS Reports the Strikes on Iran have reached the Capital of Iran, Tehran

The U.S. is going FULL SCALE from the bases in Kuwait and Bahrain.

Iran's air force is in the air and air defenses are active over TEHRAN pic.twitter.com/S0c6DWz9dE

— Ryan Rozbiani (@RyanRozbiani) July 12, 2026

“Iran made a poor choice,” Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth said on social media. “Now they pay.”

Iran made a poor choice. Now they pay. https://t.co/8m4fEfgrXv

— Pete Hegseth (@PeteHegseth) July 11, 2026

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced the Hormuz closure, saying it won’t allow any vessels to pass through until foreign interference ends, according to state-run IRIB News. The IRGC said it halted a cargo ship after firing a warning shot because it tried to transit the strait on Saturday despite being told not to, the outlet added.

The developments cast significant doubts over the potential for talks aimed at trying to reach a more lasting peace deal. The rhetoric had been getting more heated on both sides in recent days even as the two parties had suggested there was still room for conversations. 

Reports from Iran of heavy new U.S. airstrikes in a Bandar Abbas, Bushehr nuclear facility, Minab, Qeshm, and several other locations pic.twitter.com/k2zK9N5pOm

— Emily Schrader - ????? ?????? ????? ????? (@emilykschrader) July 11, 2026

Earlier on Saturday, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi traveled to Oman on Saturday for talks on the future of Hormuz, but there was no sign of involvement by senior US envoys. Also Earlier, Iran demanded that the US implement key commitments under a recent deal before more talks take place, rejecting Trump’s contention that negotiations could continue without a ceasefire. Tehran said Washington must meet Iran’s conditions for resolving transit issues through the Strait of Hormuz and normalizing its oil exports.

On Friday Trump threatened to shower Iran with “1000 Missiles” if it acted on a threat to kill the US leader, “in this case, ME!”

The US had also demanded that Iran publicly declare all channels of the Hormuz open to shipping and pledge not to attack civilian vessels transiting the waterway. Tehran would face consequences if it fails to deliver the public assurance, senior Trump administration officials told reporters. Those demands followed several days of US airstrikes and Iranian retaliation that sent oil prices higher this week. 

The Islamic Republic is holding a three-day memorial ceremony for the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, following a days-long funeral that drew large crowds to cities in Iran and neighboring Iraq. Khamenei was killed in an attack as the US and Israel began their war on Iran at the end of February.

His son and successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, on Saturday called for revenge for the killing of his father.

“It is our certain and undeniable duty that this revenge be carried out,” he said in a post on X.

Earlier

Iran has thrown Trump's ultimatum and Saturday deadline right back at Washington, saying that instead it is the United States that must first meet the agreed-upon conditions in order to normalize shipping and energy transit in the Strait of Hormuz.

Fars news agency reports Saturday that Iranian leadership is demanding that the US implement "agreed-upon understandings" before any talks take place. While the White House has declared the ceasefire to be 'over' - it has also indicated ongoing contacts and talks with Iran via mediators. But this appears to have been reduced to simple ultimatums being shuttled between capitals by Qatari mediators. There are no actual sit-down talks on the horizon after two rounds of fresh tit-for-tat attacks broke out this past week.

The memorandum of understanding (MoU) itself is barely alive at this point, also with Iran's ambassador to the United Nations, Amir-Saeid Iravani, separately announcing that Tehran could stop honoring the MoU if US attacks continue. 

"Should the United States continue to violate its obligations under the MoU, Iran will no longer be bound to fulfil its obligations under the MoU," Iravani told reporters at UN headquarters.

But he did make clear that Iran is still committed to the agreement "provided that the United States fully and faithfully complies with its own obligations."

President Trump has meanwhile continued to issue his own warnings and threats. He said Friday that the US military would "completely decimate" Iran if its leaders attempted or carried out his assassination. He took it a step further in an overnight Truth Social Post, saying he has 1,000 missiles "locked and loaded" - aimed at Iran - should he be targeted by Tehran's agents.

Strangely, the US President signed off with his puzzling "praise be to Allah!" reference - perhaps mockingly or sarcastically.

Meanwhile, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei still hasn't been seen in public after the Feb.28 US-Israeli airstrikes took out his father, killed members of his family, and reportedly badly wounded him. Mojtaba is said to be observing a private memorial for his slain father, and made no known appearance at the week-long funeral processions and burial.

But on Saturday he did call for revenge in a rare public message. "It is our certain and undeniable duty that this revenge be carried out," he said.

"We pledge to avenge your pure blood and the blood of all the martyrs of these two [recent] wars by taking revenge against the criminal, disgraceful murderers," the Ayatollah also stated. "This vengeance is what our nation is demanding, and this must definitely be done."

He issued a series of statements tinged with Shia Islamic references. His words contain repeat vows to enacting vengeance, including this not so veiled threat to kill Iran's enemies: 

The criminal, disgraceful murderers of the martyred Leader, whose names are fully documented from the highest to the lowest ranks, will carry their dream of a peaceful death in bed to the grave.

— Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei (@MKhamenei_ir) July 11, 2026

As for the big picture of where things stand, University of Chicago political scientist Robert Pape, who authors "The Escalation Trap," has pointed out that that the millions of Iranians who took to the streets last week to attend the late Ayatollah's funeral demonstrate growing nationalist resolve. He explained that this only makes further escalation more likely later this summer, as public sentiment gets hardened against the US.

"The balance of military capabilities did not change over the weekend," Pape said. "The balance of political will shifted."

Referencing the now unraveling ceasefire and negotiations process, Pape is predicting: "The pause appears to be another stage in the escalation process rather than the beginning of de-escalation." 

By Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

“President Putin said, ‘I would love to meet Zelensky in Moscow.’ And I said, ‘I don't think...you know, I have to put myself in his position. I don’t know that he’d go to Moscow,” said Trump, seated next to Zelensky in the Oval Office, the two of them discussing Russia’s war on Ukraine. “Maybe he would. Would you go to Moscow?” Trump asked Zelensky, putting him on the spot, cameras snapping away. “It’s difficult. There are a lot of Ukrainian drones there,” answered Zelensky, unable to suppress a smile. “That’s right,” said Trump. “It’s dangerous,” laughed Zelensky.

Human beings really are the best. We can adapt to the sickest crap. And if we really can’t stop ourselves from killing one another, may as well start joking about it. Iran’s Larijani joked that the IRGC could take Trump out with a micro-drone while sunbathing at Mar-a-Lago. Trump told Fox News that it’s been a long time since he’s been sunbathing, “Maybe I was around 7 or so. I’m not too big into it.”

It wasn’t long ago that the Iran war seemed like a big deal. It used to be that killing heads of state was taboo. And I can remember when people thought closing Hormuz would spark a global depression. Russia’s biggest industrialist, Andrey Melnichenko, warned of the potential for a horrifying outcome if Russia continues down its self-destructive path. I’m pretty sure he was hinting that Putin might use a tactical nuclear weapon if backed into a corner.

I first saw a philosophical justification for a preemptive tactical nuke strike 2mths ago [here]. Apparently, now that humans have adapted to the doctrine of mutually assured destruction, our thermonuclear nukes have become a bit of a joke, because no one would dare ever use one. The VIX index naturally declined to 15. Which mechanically forces volatility-controlled investment strategies to take more risk. Lifting equity prices. Lowering volatility. Inviting volatility sellers. Just like every other late market cycle. After a while it honestly gets kind of funny. 

Artificial Intelligence+

To break dependence on Western technology and drive a new era of growth, in 2024 Beijing explicitly categorized its industrial focus into:

1. Six Future Industries (long-term, frontier technologies) and
2. Six Emerging Pillar Industries (near-term economic drivers).

Then in Aug 2025, Beijing formalized an “Artificial Intelligence+” initiative, which treats AI as foundational, cross-cutting tech - like electricity or infrastructure - rather than a standalone sector. The initiative emphasizes deep AI integration across The Sixes. 

The Six Future Industries are frontier technologies that Beijing seeks to establish first-mover advantage and dictate global standards over 10yrs. China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology established six broad overarching categories (Future Manufacturing, Information, Materials, Energy, Space, Health). These translate into six specific priorities: Embodied Artificial Intelligence, Brain-Computer Interfaces, Quantum Technology, Hydrogen & Nuclear Fusion Energy, Biomanufacturing, and 6G Mobile Communications. 

The Six Emerging Pillar Industries are to drive immediate, massive economic output.

• Integrated Circuits: domestic semiconductor manufacturing to bypass US export controls.
• Low-Altitude Economy: drones, flying cars, and infrastructure to manage low-altitude airspace.
• Intelligent Robots: automation hardware for factories/logistics.
• Aviation and Aerospace: commercial spaceflight, satellite networks, domestic commercial aircraft.
• Energy Storage: advanced battery tech to support the grid.
• Biomedicine: advanced pharmaceuticals and medical equipment.

Ten Basis Points:

“It’s going to be China or the US,” said the CIO, an American who built his firm in Asia, investing in equities, tech names, macro themes. “A European sovereign AI is a pipe dream – they think Mistral will be their LLM and they’ll build data centers? Really? How exactly?” he asked. “They need Nvidia. They need a tech stack that has emerged from American and Asian IP that combines to form these magical machines that you throw a model into.” To create intelligence. “And what happens to these nations that can’t afford tokens in the next few years? How do India and Brazil and all these second-tier companies even compete?”

“We’ve entered an era where the biggest of the big - Google, Microsoft, SpaceX, Tesla, even JP Morgan - will be accessing tokens in ways that is going to catapult their businesses ahead of everybody else,” continued the CIO. “This sort of faux debate over cheap open-source AI versus expensive Anthropic is nonsense. There’s a shortage of intelligence - pure and simple – we’re below ten basis points of market penetration in this stuff across the global economy, why are people even having a debate over this?”

“Given all the component shortages and constraints, and the anti-AI populist backlash, we could see a horrific market crash along the way, but we haven’t yet diffused this technology across the economy to the degree that it can be useful,” he continued. My Tesla drives me everywhere. I’m a super user, virtually alone. But in 10 years, no one will drive. “We have zero AI in  regulated processes within banks, healthcare companies and insurance companies because the errors and hallucination are being ironed out.” But they will be. “This could be the last great bull market in technology. What could eclipse superintelligence?” 

Anecdote:

“As we know the two principal players and their mentor, I take their words and actions as a serious roadmap,” said the CIO. We were discussing Bessent’s speech at the Economic Club of New York [here] and Warsh’s press conference following his first FOMC meeting [here]. “Much like the Chinese Communist Party 5-year plans, we’re glimpsing the future for American economic policy. Having watched the Chinese game the global trading system to the point that it broke leads me to believe it should be reassembled in Scott’s vision for something more equitable,” continued the CIO, an American who built his firm in Asia, investing in equities, tech, macro themes.

“AI competition with China is also central to this strategy. It’s possible that like Reagan spending Gorbachev into the ground, we could cause the Chinese system to hit the wall.” Interesting.

“Beijing’s national data center strategy is to build massive scale in token factories.” CXMT is their national DRAM champion and is about to IPO. Its disclosures reveal deep inefficiencies. Beijing will inevitably subsidize its losses. “Chinese open-source models are all the rage on Twitter. They’re not as good for complex thinking but very good at specific tasks and sub agent work. Therefore, as these models sit on US tech stacks, no Chinese innovator is making money - AWS makes the money for producing the token,” he said.

“Having already sunk massive amounts into EV, Solar, and other areas, one day the Chinese may well hit a wall, especially given they have yet to tackle their property sector.” The chronic decline in Chinese property prices has caused a depression in domestic consumption.

“If Scott’s strategy works and allied nations realize it’s better to play along then not, the Chinese export markets could become smaller precisely when they need them most. At the same time Taiwan, Singapore, Korea, and Hong Kong do stuff we need so we could work more diplomatically with them as they are no longer the Asian Tigers of our youth,” he said.

“Let’s see how it plays out but it’s fascinating and why guys like us stay in the game.”