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In a continuation of our note on the health of America's restaurant industry, we cite UBS analyst Dennis Geiger for a second straight week, as his coverage of the consumer and restaurant sectors has been spot on. Sentiment toward chain eateries remains "generally cautious," with macro pressures, elevated gas prices, and weak demand among lower-income consumers continuing to weigh on traffic and sales trends.

Last week, Geiger warned, "Challenged traffic and sales trends likely reflect depressed consumer sentiment across several cohorts, elevated gas prices, and other macro headwinds. We are more cautious on restaurant industry trends heading into 2H26, assuming near-term headwinds persist, rebate check benefits fade, and the risk that gas prices stay elevated."

Adding more color to the still-difficult backdrop across the restaurant industry, Geiger and his team held discussions with management teams from several leading restaurant brands to gain deeper insight into evolving consumer spending trends:

Brand & franchisee discussions highlight performance pressured by macroeconomic factors

Our latest discussions with several brands / mgmt teams and select franchisees highlight macro headwinds and elevated gas prices that continue to weigh on industry results. Select brands more exposed to lower income consumers continue to face sales pressures, with our recent discussions with Wingstop and McDonald's franchisees highlighting the current challenges:

1. Wingstop franchisees noted continued negative sss & traffic performance, highlighting multiple potential factors, including: i) ongoing macro pressures impacting key customer cohorts; ii) challenges of lapping robust sales growth in past years, including key sales initiatives such as delivery and marketing growth & expansion into sports; iii) potential customer chicken category fatigue given focus on chicken by most QSR peers as beef costs remain elevated; iv) cannibalization in select highly penetrated markets, particularly via the delivery channel; v) broader QSR value / promo activity; and vi) potentially less social media buzz recently than in years past. However, expectations are that trends should benefit from the world cup in June & July and potentially inflect positive later this year or in early '27. Franchisees noted opportunities exist to enhance the current marketing strategy to increase the brand's relevance and improve messaging surrounding Smart Kitchen and the ability to increase speed / throughput without sacrificing food quality. Additionally, value remains an important focus, with opportunities to promote and highlight value. That said, franchisees indicated still elevated demand to open new stores given returns that remain attractive, without material margin concerns.

2. McDonald's franchisees highlighted choppy performance thus far in 2Q, largely reflecting difficult April comparisons and given the current macro environment, with gas prices having a particularly negative impact on consumer demand among a core lower income cohort. Operators noted challenging macro conditions could continue, while comparisons are difficult in 2H. Despite pressures, our discussions suggest franchisees remain optimistic about the outlook for the brand and sales trends as gas prices eventually ease, with several drivers that could help lift sss including: i) recent launch of specialty beverages, including dirty sodas & refreshers which is driving avg check higher, with energy expected in Aug and other menu innovation coming (ie snack wraps news; new sandwich event around chicken); ii) strong marketing / campaigns (ie world cup meal w/ collectibles off to a solid start; Home Alone meal expected in 4Q); iii) compelling value platforms, with the Under $3 Menu and $4 Breakfast Meal Deal expected to gain guest count traction over the coming quarters; and iv) solid gains from digital / delivery & the loyalty platform. Additionally, franchisees noted an increased brand emphasis on utilizing technology & being more digital forward while also improving hospitality. Strategic plans from the Worldwide Convention appear to be focused on the right areas to drive longer-term traffic and sales share gains.

Three Important Facts About the Space

1. Restaurant inflation down slightly in May; Grocery pricing gap grew modestly

Total food inflation was down slightly for the broader food complex in May (3.1% vs. 3.2% April) per gov't data, w/ food away-from-home (FAFH) inflation down slightly m/m at 3.5% (vs. 3.6% in April) while food at-home (FAH) price inflation also decreased to 2.7% (vs. 3.0% in April). May restaurant price inflation remained above grocery (~80 bps), w/ the gap increasing from April (~60 bps). Limited service pricing was 3.3% in May (~flat vs April), while full-service was 3.8% (~flat vs April). We expect restaurant pricing to continue to ease modestly over the coming quarters as higher pricing levels roll off.

2. Value differs by age cohort; Rising prices pressuring restaurant traffic

Recent Technomic industry insights highlighted several industry themes, including: i) value differs by age cohort w/ the Baby Boomer & Gen X consumer more focused on quick service & high quality items, while younger customers also weigh other factors including brand identity, digital convenience, and social values. ii) Rising prices are likely still impacting restaurant industry traffic, with 83% of surveyed consumers noticing higher purchase prices & 63% cooking more at home as a result. Over the NTM, 45% of respondents plan to visit restaurants less, while 38% are actively looking for promotional offers.

3. Expect greater impacts from GLP-1s drugs on restaurants over time

UBS Consumer hosted another call with Michael Yee, UBS Global Head of Biotechnology Research, that highlighted his ~$133BN global GLP-1 market forecast by '30. Total obesity patients treated by GLP-1 in the US are projected to grow from ~5MM in '25 (or 1% of population) to >10MM by '30 (or ~5% of adult population), with upside to the forecasts from new drugs and potentially better convenience and fewer side effects. Specifically, the recently launched GLP-1 oral pills could grow to ~20% of the total GLP- 1 market longer-term. That said, the oral pills are not expected to be game changing near-term in the US due to lower efficacy than injectables. Affordability and accessibility of the drug should improve w/ better insurance coverage (including via Medicare and Medicaid) and lower cash pay costs. Currently, ~50% of GLP-1 users stop taking the drug after 1 yr given the high costs, however as it becomes more affordable, the length of use should extend longer. Key implications for the restaurants sector include: 1) reduced dining out frequency, with the impact likely increasing over time as drug adoption grows, 2) alcohol mix continues to decline for full-service restaurants, 3) a shift in consumer preference towards healthier food options and smaller portion, and 4) lower overall calorie intake even from GLP-1 users with the same restaurant visit frequency. Replay details and slides available upon request.

OpenTable Reservations Data by State

Food Away From Home inflation > Food At Home inflation

With the national average gasoline price exceeding the politically sensitive $4-per-gallon level for 10 weeks, consumers, mainly working-class ones, are in a real financial pinch as the tax-refund sugar is waning (read note). 

Professional subscribers can read more about the consumer at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Senior Anthropic technical staff have been dispatched to Washington DC, after a Friday night government demand to implement sweeping export controls resulted in the company yanking its two most capable models Friday night after only a few days of public release - Mythos and Fable (Fable being Mythos with guardrails) - over the alleged ability to 'jailbreak' the latter. As of Sunday the models are still down, no restoration date has been set, but sources on both sides told Axios they are eager to resolve it. That said, the two parties best positioned to explain what happened are telling different stories as to how this happened. 

The order is narrow on paper and sweeping in effect. It prohibits access by "any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees." Anthropic has no reliable way to verify a user's citizenship at the moment they send an API request or open a chat window, and its own staff, customers, and cloud partners are spread across dozens of countries. The company concluded it could not selectively block foreign nationals, so it blocked everyone. Anthropic's other models, including Opus 4.8, Sonnet, and Haiku, are untouched and still running.

The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees.

The net effect of…

— Anthropic (@AnthropicAI) June 13, 2026

What The Order Does, And Why It Went Global

The directive came from Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick's office, and a U.S. official confirmed to Bloomberg that the department sent the letter. Curiously, the letter did not spell out the specific national-security concern behind it. The legal mechanism appears to be the "deemed export" rule, the decades-old principle that releasing controlled technology or source code to a foreign person counts as an export to that person's home country. Applying it to a deployed commercial frontier model is, by NBC's account, the first time a leading AI company has pulled a publicly deployed model offline because of federal intervention.

What we do know about Lutnick's letter; it requires a license for the export, re-export, or domestic transfer of the two models and reaches any foreign person on U.S. soil. It does not, on its face, bar U.S. citizens or the U.S. government, and the cutoff for American users is a consequence of Anthropic's inability to filter rather than the order's intent. Government access is murkier still: CyberScoop reports the National Security Agency had been given Mythos 5 to conduct offensive cyber operations through Project Glasswing, and it remains unclear how the directive affects that program. Foreign vetted partners were clearly swept in, with the Korea Times reporting that Korean Glasswing members including the Korea Internet & Security Agency, SK Telecom, and Samsung lost their access. In other words, the order disconnected allied security partners abroad while a U.S. agency's separate channel to the more powerful sibling model appears, on the order's logic, to sit outside its reach.

Confirmed cut offs:

• Private/commercial users. Fable's public, API, and enterprise users, plus the private-sector Glasswing partners (the vetted cyber firms) who had Mythos.
• Foreign government and intergovernmental partners. The Korea Times reports Korean Glasswing members (the Korea Internet & Security Agency, SK Telecom, Samsung) lost access, and Security Affairs reports European Glasswing partners including NATO and ENISA (the EU's cybersecurity agency) were cut off with no notice. Those are foreign nationals under the order, so the order reaches them directly.

The reach inside the United States is the most unusual part, and it produced an awkward result for Anthropic; their own employees can't use Mythos or Fable now. Any non-citizen querying Fable from, say, an apartment in San Francisco is barred exactly as if they were in Shanghai - and that population includes a meaningful share of Anthropic's own workforce, since frontier labs run heavily on foreign-born engineers. The company effectively had to lock some of its own staff out of the model it had just shipped. Dean Ball, an AI policy expert who briefly served in the current administration and has been sharply critical of its moves against the company, called the action "cartoonish" on X, pointing to the incoherence of an administration that wants to export advanced AI chips to China while moving to bar allied users, from Britain on down, from the best American models.

Tinfoil, anyone?

The national security order might be a godsend for Anthropic - which priced Fable at ten dollars per million input tokens and fifty per million output, double its Opus 4.8 flagship and, by its own description, less than half the price of Mythos Preview - the most expensive model it sells and a token-hungry one on long tasks. It was free on Pro, Max, Team, and Enterprise plans only from June 9 through June 22, with metered credits taking over after, and Anthropic was candid the staged rollout was about capacity, expecting demand "very high, and difficult to predict."

So this shutdown, triggered by Amazon (read below), and landing three days into a two-week giveaway conveniently capped an expensive subsidy that after we're guessing most users switched to the thirsty model.

How Three Days Unspooled

Fable 5 launched on June 9 as the first broadly available "Mythos-class" model, the public-facing version of a system Anthropic had previously kept behind a vetted-access wall because of its cyber and biological capabilities. Mythos 5, the same underlying model with some safeguards removed, stayed reserved for cleared cybersecurity partners. Fable 5 was the middle path: Mythos-grade capability, Anthropic said, with guardrails strong enough for general release. The company put it on the API, made it generally available on Amazon Bedrock and GitHub Copilot, and folded it into Pro, Max, Team, and Enterprise plans at no extra charge through June 22.

The imminent “Anthropic - White House” ceasefire is the new imminent “Iran-US” ceasefire https://t.co/byCO9mLo2h

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 14, 2026

The launch was rocky before Washington entered. Researchers complained the safeguards were overbroad and that ordinary technical work was being downgraded. A sharper backlash hit over what users called a "silent fallback," a mechanism that quietly rerouted certain high-risk queries to the older Opus 4.8 without telling the user. Anthropic reversed it, apologized, and said flagged requests would be made visible. Then, on June 10, a well-known jailbreaker who posts as Pliny the Liberator published what he claimed was a working bypass of Fable's safety systems, complete with lurid outputs spanning cyber exploits and chemical synthesis. It gave the controversy a public face, though it is worth noting it was not the finding the government ultimately cited. Anthropic has never confirmed which jailbreak triggered the order, the viral Pliny post or the private report described below.

?? JAILBREAK ALERT ??

ANTHROPIC: PWNED ??
FABLE-5: LIBERATED ??

let's start with the ??...

the consensus seems to be that this has been one of the most disappointing model drops of all time, effectively preventing legitimate researchers from contributing their talents to our… pic.twitter.com/Z0vdPIt4vY

— Pliny the Liberator ?????????????????????????? (@elder_plinius) June 10, 2026

Anthropic says it received a Friday evening call giving it roughly ninety minutes to take the models down over a national-security threat, with no specifics attached. The Lutnick letter followed that afternoon. By late evening, users had lost access, and Anthropic posted its statement calling the situation a misunderstanding. The next day, David Sacks and Pete Hegseth offered the administration's version in public. As of this writing, the models are still offline.

The Trigger Was Amazon

The finding that set this off appears to have come not from an anonymous internet jailbreak but from Amazon, which is to say from Anthropic's single largest investor.

According to the Wall Street Journal, corroborated by The Information and Reuters, Amazon researchers found a way to prompt Fable 5 into surfacing information useful for cyberattacks, and Amazon chief executive Andy Jassy raised the concern directly with senior officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. The company's report reportedly showed Fable surfacing security bugs in at least four software programs when fed a specific set of queries, and National Cyber Director Sean Cairncross and Lutnick were both in the conversations. Sacks, in his thread, described the source only as a "highly credible trusted partner." Amazon has declined to detail the research, telling reporters it is "not uncommon for governments to seek our counsel" on security risks and that it does not discuss the substance of those talks. AWS, which hosted Fable 5 through Bedrock, later confirmed Anthropic had asked it to revoke access for all users in all regions. Amazon was not alone in raising flags, either: at least five other companies submitted warnings in the same window.

What's interesting is that Amazon is Anthropic's largest backer - with a cumulative stake of roughly $13 billion and a $100 billion AWS spending commitment running the other way, plus a board seat, the cloud that serves the models, and a Trainium chip relationship. One of the companies most thoroughly entangled with Anthropic's business helped prompt a government action that knocked Anthropic's flagship launch offline eleven days after the company filed confidentially for an IPO. There may be an entirely straightforward explanation, that Amazon spotted a real risk and escalated it through the proper channel.

Was Amazon concerned about being legally responsible for jailbroken Fable hackings? 

By Anthropic's account, the government supplied only verbal evidence of a narrow, non-universal bypass that amounted to asking the model to read a codebase and flag software bugs - with the same result obtainable from other public models including OpenAI's GPT-5.5. The company argues a narrow jailbreak cannot justify "recalling a commercial model deployed to hundreds of millions of people," and that applying that standard industry-wide would "halt all new model deployments." It is a first-party account from a company that wants its product back online, but it is the more detailed of the two, and Anthropic notes that thousands of hours of pre-launch red-teaming by the U.S. government, the U.K. AI Security Institute, and outside groups found no universal jailbreak.

It is also corroborated by the only named expert who has read the underlying report. Katie Moussouris, the Luta Security chief executive who built Microsoft's bug-bounty program and helped design the Pentagon's first, reviewed the Amazon findings at Anthropic's request and told the Journal and Fortune it was "not a jailbreak" but "Defense Oriented Prompting (DOP), capabilities defenders need," adding that if national defense was the goal the response "just scored an own goal against us." Chris McGuire of the Council on Foreign Relations, no reflexive critic, called the across-the-board restriction "highly questionable."

The administration's case runs the other way, and it runs on Anthropic's own rhetoric. Sacks, who co-chairs the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology and previously served as the White House AI and crypto czar, says a trusted partner found a working jailbreak and that the administration asked CEO Dario Amodei to fix it or pull the model. "Dario allegedly refused."

Sacks points out that Anthropic spent months calling Mythos-class models a more dangerous category needing oversight; Fable is Mythos with guardrails - so a bypass exposes "operability of a cyber weapon" to people who should not have it. His bottom line: "the ball is in Anthropic's court."

I’ve had a number of conversations with folks inside and outside government about the current situation with Anthropic, and here is what I believe to be true:

— As we know, Anthropic publicly released its Mythos class models earlier this week under the commercial name Fable.…

— David Sacks (@DavidSacks) June 13, 2026

Meanwhile, a more alarming claim, that the trigger involved access from China, rests on a single Semafor source and is disputed by Anthropic, which says the issue was never raised and that it blocks access from inside China. Treasury, Commerce, and the Bureau of Industry and Security have not put a technical case on the record. Anthropic wants its model live and its safety brand intact; the White House wants to look alert rather than asleep as AI starts touching cyber operations. Nobody has shown the proof.

Secretary of War Pete Hegseth posted a "Told ya so" - writing "Three months ago, @DeptofWar kicked @AnthropicAI out of our building—forever ... Every passing day proves why that was the right move." 

Three months ago, @DeptofWar kicked @AnthropicAI out of our building—forever.

Every passing day proves why that was the right move. ????

— Pete Hegseth (@PeteHegseth) June 13, 2026

Sacks has explicitly denied the Fable action is retaliation, and there is no public evidence that it is. But the prior friction is real, and the administration's own messaging keeps blurring the line between a technical enforcement action and a broader fight over who sets the terms for AI in national security.

Precedent-Setting

For the rest of the industry, the precedent is the point: a frontier model can be launched, praised, and pulled from global availability inside a week, by emergency directive, for reasons its provider cannot fully see. Reporting suggests the administration is treating this as Anthropic-specific for now, but even a one-company action pushes every lab toward pre-clearing high-capability releases. That direction is not hypothetical; Trump signed an executive order this month directing agencies to establish a voluntary mechanism for the government to get early access to powerful models before deployment. The Fable order is what the involuntary version looks like.

Enterprises are reading it as a resilience warning, with analysts urging multi-provider routing, local fallback, and a harder look at open-weight models - exactly the immunity Chinese open-source labs are now marketing. For U.S. allies the lesson is sharper, because the order cut off allied users too, sweeping European, Canadian, and Indian customers into the same blackout. The European Commission said emergency measures should not discriminate against partners; French officials reached for the language of technological sovereignty. The subtext, that AI infrastructure controlled in Washington can be switched off in Washington, is now being said aloud.

Then there's the paradox Anthropic helped build - long arguing that governments should be able to block unsafe deployments, distinguishing itself from rivals who oppose binding rules. This is what that looks like when the process is not the "transparent, fair, clear, and grounded in technical facts" one it envisioned but an emergency directive with no public record. Its objection is not that no model should ever be stopped, but that this is the wrong way to stop one - a harder argument for a company that spent years naming the danger and marketing the restraint.

The imminent “Anthropic - White House” ceasefire is the new imminent “Iran-US” ceasefire https://t.co/byCO9mLo2h

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 14, 2026

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

Would undeniable evidence of alien life cause large numbers of people to abandon what they believe about God? Disclosure Day comes out in theaters this weekend, and that appears to be one of the biggest questions that this film is driving at. Much of the global population has always operated under the assumption that the only intelligent life that exists in the universe is on this planet. So how would the world respond to very clear evidence that proves once and for all that we are not alone?

Steven Spielberg is the creative force behind Disclosure Day, and he is making it abundantly clear what he believes.

During a shocking interview with CBS News, he openly stated that he believes that aliens “have been here, and they are here”…

Half a century after Steven Spielberg challenged audiences to think about what lies beyond the starry canopy that defines our universe in Close Encounters of the Third Kind, the director is again challenging accepted precepts of faith and singular belief in a supreme being.

His new film Disclosure Day sees him revisit the possibility of aliens: “I absolutely think that they have been here, and they are here,” he outlined in an interview with CBS News.

Wow.

Spielberg is actually convinced that aliens are here on Earth right now.

And during a different interview with USA Today, he expressed his view that there is “overwhelming” evidence that aliens exist…

When I made “Close Encounters,” I needed a lot of imagination. I believed there was other life out there, although I wasn’t quite sure if it had come here. I was really curious about UFOs and UAPs. I said, “I’m not going to call ‘Close Encounters’ science fiction – I’m going to call it science speculation.” But since the beginning of the 21st century, there’s been more and more access to the actual visual truth. We’re able to confirm our belief by showing what we shot on our devices to other people. It’s just become overwhelming to me that we’re not alone in the universe.

Disclosure Day makes it clear that Spielberg does not consider the fact that we are not alone to be a bad thing.

In fact, it appears that he is trying to get those that watch the movie to be open to whatever the “aliens” may want to teach us.

In my opinion, that is what makes this film so dangerous.

The idea is that once the “aliens” show up we should discard what we have always believed and just accept whatever new reality they have to offer.

Of course Spielberg also acknowledges that this would be very difficult for many of us.

Spielberg is convinced that if the government fully revealed everything about alien life that they have been keeping from us, it would “mess up a lot of people”…

“There’s a faction in the film that represents a pretty good position of why — possibly because of ontological shock, social dislocation — if this truth… were just known overnight, if the government announced, ‘Yes, we have been keeping this from you since 1947,’ that would mess up a lot of people.”

So exactly who are the “people” that Spielberg is referring to?

At one point in his interview with CBS News, Spielberg suggested that undeniable evidence of alien life would greatly shake the theological beliefs of those that believe in God…

During a CBS News interview, Spielberg reflected on how confirmation of intelligent life beyond Earth could affect religious faith, saying, ‘The movie also takes the position of the church.

‘What does this do to the fundamental beliefs that many of us have? Is God our God only on this planet? Or is God a god for every system where there’s civilization and intelligent life, and even developing life?’

The Oscar-winning filmmaker argued that proof of alien life would force many believers to confront difficult questions about God’s role in a universe that may be filled with other intelligent civilizations.

Obviously this is something that has been on his mind for a long time.

If you have not seen Spielberg’s full interview with CBS News yet, I would highly recommend checking it out, because it is very revealing…

Because it has so much hype, I think that Disclosure Day will be one of the biggest movies of the year.

Over time, billions of people could end up watching this film.

Just think about that for a moment.

All over the world, people will have their opinions about extraterrestrial life shaped by Spielberg, and that is extremely alarming.

One character in Disclosure Day actually suggests that when the “aliens” finally show up, people will “stop believing in God” and will instead accept the “aliens” as “deities”…

Would the discovery of alien life really be faith-shattering? One character in Disclosure Day (a former novitiate nun played by Bono’s daughter Eve Hewson) argues, “People will see [aliens] as deities. They’ll stop believing in God.”

For decades, movies, television shows, books and video games have been priming us to believe that someday the “aliens” will finally make their grand appearance.

And when that happens, much of the global population will accept whatever they have to say hook, line and sinker.

But true Christians will not have their faith shaken by Disclosure Day, nor will they have their faith shaken even if “aliens” suddenly show up in large numbers in the skies above this planet.

From the very beginning to the very end, the Bible openly acknowledges that we are not alone in the universe.

In fact, the Bible has a great deal to say about angels, fallen angels, demons and a whole host of other non-human entities.

And the final book of the Bible is far wilder than any science fiction movie that Hollywood has ever put out.

Yes, very strange creatures will someday invade our planet. You can read all about it in Revelation chapter 9.

I have been writing about all of this stuff for well over a decade, because I want the world to understand what is going to happen in advance.

Once you understand what is going to happen, your faith will never be shaken by a Steven Spielberg film.

On social media, some Christians are making this point quite eloquently…

One user posted on X in response to the director’s statements, saying: ‘I can promise you it won’t. Not even for a second.’ While another shared: ‘The Alien Psyop will definitely make people question their faith lol.’

An X user posted: ‘We’ve had 70 years of sci-fi movies with aliens. I think Christians will survive this movie with their faith intact.’

Steven Spielberg seems to think that the fact that we are not alone is some sort of grand discovery.

But the reality of the matter is that the Bible has been telling us this for thousands of years.

We were never alone.

So don’t buy into the Hollywood propaganda.

We are being set up for a deception of epic proportions, but those that hold on to the truth will be able to see right through it.

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

America’s semiquincentennial birthday celebration kicks into gear today with the Ultimate Fighting Championship’s (UFC) Freedom 250 fights, with seven matches scheduled for the South Lawn of the White House.

“This will be the greatest show on earth,” President Donald Trump said while previewing the stage in May.

“I think it’s going to be the biggest event we’ve ever had at the White House.”

As Travis Gillmore reports for The Epoch Times, the spectacle falls on Flag Day as well as Trump’s 80th birthday.

Organizers constructed a 60-foot-tall structure known as the “claw,” with matches occurring in the sport’s familiar, octagon-shaped arena on the front yard of the Executive Mansion.

The main event, a lightweight title unification bout, features undefeated UFC lightweight title holder Ilia “El Matador” Topuria, 29, facing off against 37-year-old interim lightweight champion Justin “The Highlight” Gaethje, both weighing in at 155 pounds. Topuria, known for elite techniques and knockout strength, is heavily favored, though the U.S.-born Gaethje is a mainstay in the sport, with high-level fighting intelligence and durability.

Second on the card, listed as a co-main event, is an interim heavyweight bout between 251-pound Alex Pereira, 38, and 248-pound Ciryl Gane, 36.

Known as “Poatan,” Pereira is looking to become the sport’s first three-division champion, having previously captured the middleweight and light heavyweight titles.

Media preview of the UFC setup of the upcoming UFC Freedom Fight on June 14, on the South Lawn of the White House on June 11, 2026. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

France’s Gane, nicknamed “Bon Gamin,” a former interim champion, is quick on his feet and known for his range. The match is evenly stacked, according to oddsmakers.

Winners of the title bouts will receive red, white, and blue patriotic-themed belts, adorned with “1776–2026,” 250 stars, approximately 60 carats of diamonds, and an engraving of the scene at the White House.

Fan favorite “Suga” Sean O’Malley is expected to bring his trademark personality to the ring when he takes on Aiemann Zahabi for the bantamweight match, with both fighters coming within a half-pound of each other at weigh-in. O’Malley’s quick striking gives him the edge, while Zahabi comes into the match with a seven-fight win streak.

An undefeated new prospect weighing 231 pounds, Josh Hokit, with nine straight victories, will challenge 265-pound Derrick “The Black Beast” Lewis in the night’s heavyweight fight. Hokit brings youthful energy to the ring, while Lewis is known as an elite, lights-out puncher.

Brazilian lightweight Mauricio Ruffy takes on veteran Michael Chandler in a bout where Ruffy is favored, but Chandler’s wrestling skills and bursts of energy will be on display.

Bo Nickal is expected to prevail over Kyle Daukaus in a middleweight battle between the two 186-pounders, while a featherweight match between Diego Lopes and Steve Garcia is set to open the night.

UFC organizers hosted a ceremonial weigh-in Saturday in Washington in preparation for the mixed martial arts fights.

Dana White, UFC president and CEO, oversaw the programming, while podcaster and long-time UFC commentator Joe Rogan emceed the event.

White hoisted one of the red, white, and blue patriotic themed belts created for the two title fights, adorned with “1776–2026,” 250 stars, approximately 60 carats of diamonds, and an engraving of the scene at the White House.

Thousands of fans crowded the Ellipse near the Executive Mansion to witness the festivities.

Military skydivers performed aerial stunts to kick iff the evening, flying a huge American flag down to the crowd before a bald eagle soared over the audience.

The 14 fighters were officially weighed in earlier in the morning, and all the competitors made their respective weight to qualify for the seven-match card.

UFC lightweight champion Ilia Topuria and interim lightweight champion Justin Gaethje both came in at 155 pounds ahead of their fight in the main event on Sunday, a lightweight title unification match.

The co-main event, an interim heavyweight title bout, will feature 251-pound Alex Pereira against 248-pound Ciryl Gane.

Sean O’Malley weighed in at 135.5 pounds, and Aiemann Zahabi came in at 135 pounds ahead of their bantamweight match.

Heavyweights Josh Hokit and Derrick Lewis will fight at 231 pounds and 265 pounds, respectively.

Mauricio Ruffy weighed 155 pounds, and Michael Chandler totaled 156 pounds, before the two go head-to-head in a lightweight match.

Middleweights Bo Nickal and Kyle Daukaus will fight at 186 pounds apiece, while featherweights Diego Lopes and Steve Garcia both weighed in at 146 pounds.

Tensions ran high as the athletes faced off in front of the crowd.

Similar antics were on display June 12 during the pre-fight press conference at the Lincoln Memorial.

Thousands of military members and special guests will sit ringside, while the Ellipse near the White House is set up to hold an overflow crowd of approximately 100,000.

Gates open at 3:30 p.m. ET Sunday for the main event and Fan Fest watch party, which includes a replica octagon, interactive entertainment, live music, merchandise booths, live shows and appearances, meet-and-greets with UFC athletes, fireworks, and more.

The Zac Brown Band headlined Saturday night, with more musical acts featured along with motocross stunts by Travis Pastrana.

Officials with the UFC promoted the fights as the “most historic sporting event of all time,” with festivities coinciding with the nation’s founders signing the Declaration of Independence.

“UFC Freedom 250 commemorates the 250th birthday of the United States with a once-in-a-generation celebration of the American fighting spirit,” the organization said in a statement.

“From the revolution to the octagon, this historic event will connect fans through cinematic storytelling and unrivaled competition on the world’s greatest proving ground.”

People around the world can watch the fights live on Paramount+ beginning at 8 p.m. ET.

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

Space: The Now Frontier & The AI Revolution

Academy will tackle any details on a deal with Iran via a SITREP and a podcast, once (if) details are made  available. 

After last Friday’s extreme move (More Than Rates Moving Markets) we had a relatively tame week with the S&P and Nasdaq both gaining around 0.7%, but neither getting back to their highs of the week, set on Tuesday. Yields drifted moderately lower on the week, primarily on the back of steep declines in the price of oil (though I do feel the need to point out the Jan 2027 WTI contract, which I’ve been focusing on, is still at $76.1, barely one dollar lower than where it closed last Friday – I remain in the higher for longer camp). Credit spreads remain firm and the asset class remains “boring” which is a good thing! 

Now let’s address two bigger picture issues that have been taking up a lot of time during recent client calls and visits. Space and AI. 

Space: The Now Frontier 

Space: The Final Frontier still gives me the chills! The excitement of exploration! The IPO of SpaceX and all the discussion it has created has brought back that feeling. 

A colony of 1 million people on Mars! I love the concept! I have 0 opinion on whether the number of shares that Musk gets for achieving that target is the right number, but I love having that concept out there. 

Think big:! This concept floating around, and now documented into Wall Street, excites me. On the back of Artemis II and the planned lunar landings, there is a lot of potential for new discoveries. 

On a more practical (or near-term outlook) it can lead to AI and Data Centers in space. New sources of energy and potentially other materials. 

But there are also important National Security elements that are gaining more attention. 

Many members of Academy’s Geopolitical Intelligence Group lament that we have been “soft” on space. That we have ignored the real dangers to national security by not focusing on space as much as we need to. While the Space Force was a step in the right direction, many argue that we are behind (some might argue woefully behind) where we should be in terms of ensuring that space is safe and our interests are protected! 

At the simple and on the not controversial end of the spectrum, is “space junk.” The debris in orbit is increasing. While not currently posing a risk, it is something that should be addressed better than it has been. 

What about GPS and communications? I’m not sure that I could walk to the corner store without using some map app. The working assumption that “no one is interested in disrupting GPS” may be naïve? While at least 95% of communication remains “terrestrial” (fiber optic cables, undersea cables, cell towers, etc.) space will become increasingly important to communications. While it might not be “mission critical” to protect the communications equipment in space today, it could be.

Who will control discoveries? 

Let’s say we find some vital resources on the moon (seems the most likely “surprise” that could occur in the near future). Who will control that material? 

• At best, the discoverer and those with the capabilities to take advantage of such material.  
• At worst, might is right. 

We expect this administration, and future administrations, will spend more on space to support National Security. This is a bipartisan issue as we think about the myriad of possibilities for space. Not just the good and altruistic possibilities, but also about the risk that some other country doesn’t share such a cooperative spirit about the future of space. 

This is by no means, “closing the barn door after the horses have run out,” but it is something that deserves more serious attention and money going forward.  

The national security elements are in addition to the commercial opportunities that will be funded as corporations rush to harness the potential! 

If waking up to a $2.1 trillion market cap (and the first trillionaire) doesn’t motivate entrepreneurial and capitalistic spirits, then I should just give up this job, because it would go against everything I understand about capitalism! 

Space may be the “final frontier” but it is also the “now” frontier, which is incredibly exciting! 

The AI Revolution 

Let’s get the hard part over, and start with this image: 

This image is meant to grab your attention, if not create some shock value. Yes, I used AI (ChatGPT in this case) to create an image of modern-day workers storming a data center like villagers in the old days. It isn’t perfect, but it is about a zillion times better than I could do on my own. 

My current thinking on AI: 

• It is crucial to have the lead in this technology from a National Security standpoint.
  • Maybe I’m falling into a trap where everything looks like a nail, when you only have a hammer, as I spend so much time with the Geopolitical Intelligence Group, but I do believe that the AI Race and the Data Race are real and it is crucial to stay ahead in these races. I cannot tell whether it is one race or two races that are similar, but that doesn’t really make a difference, so we will ignore that technicality for now. 
• We are all trying to implement AI into our routines, with varying amounts of success. 
  • “Traditional” search (if you can call something that didn’t exist when I was born, “traditional”) has been almost fully taken over by AI. No longer are we just getting pointed to links and websites as search results. We now get the answers we presumably would have gotten by going to those links up front. 
  • Sometimes we are “shocked” by the results of AI. 
    • Sometimes those “shocks” are good – like the image delivered above. 
    • Sometimes those “shocks” raise eyebrows – like how could it make up a ticker?  Or not find the current version of what we were trying to solve. Ending up in a level of frustration over the need to correct some “slop” after spending money to generate that “slop” in the first place. At the back of your mind, you cannot help but wonder what you might have missed, in prior instances of using AI.
  • I think a lot about the Gell-Mann Amnesia Effect (the ad that popped up for me on this link was for ShipSticks - got to give the ad agencies some credit for that). 
• We have moved beyond “generic” questions about AI and into wanting real world examples and case studies. 
  • We are in the phase of trying to figure out “if it is worth it.” Not just figuring out how much time we saved (after applying our own touches) but we are also considering what we didn’t learn by going down the AI path. 
  • With the prices rising for usage, it is becoming easier to think about AI in a “traditional” cost versus benefit framework. Presumably (based on market valuations), AI is going to look very cheap. 

If my current thinking is generally positive on AI and I truly believe it is crucial for security, then why show a picture depicting the AI Revolution as people storming a data center? 

• Anthropic Disables Mythos 5 and Fable 5. This was done to comply with the U.S. government’s demands. National Security front and center. I will admit, there is a part of me that thinks this might be the best “velvet rope” marketing campaign ever. It is so powerful that you can’t use it, just makes people want to use it. But it is only a part of me that thinks that. The larger and less juvenile side of me thinks there are real security risks being unleashed.
  • It is difficult to undo discoveries. Now that everyone knows that this sort of AI has been developed, people will try to replicate it. How long before someone else has this tech and uses it against us (or you or me). We are going to have to ramp up our National Security Policy around data, chips, and AI at lightning speed! 
  • There will be (and there already is) an element of I Told You So. Those who don’t want AI to succeed will use this to try to slow the development of AI. Again, just because we slow down and add stricter guardrails doesn’t mean those who want to do us harm would follow suit (they wouldn’t, they would just smile at the opportunity being given to them). 
• Remember the “viral” report on potential job losses from AI? Wall Street may have moved on, but not everyone in the country has forgotten about the fear it stoked in them (primarily around their own jobs and careers). While our Are We The Horses? in the buggy whip story hasn’t gone viral, it has gotten some attention. Lisa Abramowicz asked me about it during my interview last week and has mentioned it several times. I recently came across another report also asking those questions. Fear of job loss is real. 
  • Add in robotics, and job loss fears mount even higher.
• Electricity costs. People don’t love the looks of data centers (one friend pointed out recently, that while driving at 79 mph, it took 3 minutes to drive by a data center construction site). Water issues are there too, but for now it is the electricity consumption that bothers/scares people the most.

Electricity CPI: new record high pic.twitter.com/EBFCAxDXk4

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 10, 2026

The biggest risk I see to the AI industry in the U.S. is that a political movement captures the angst surrounding the business and uses that sentiment to win elections and slow or even derail AI in the country. 

We are not there yet, but the industry has to focus on heading this risk off at the pass. 

• We’ve seen a “softer” tone out of some AI executives, particularly trying to flip the narrative to job creation from AI rather than job losses. 
• The companies developing the AI and Data Centers are doing a much better job on the electricity side of things and will continue to do that. 
• While it is probably important to lobby in D.C., I think it is equally important (and possibly more important) to maintain/win in the court of public opinion. 

My picture is unlikely to gain traction (no one uses torches anyways), but that sentiment is bubbling just below the surface and I think tackling it head on is one thing that AI needs to do. The national security focus helps, but is not in itself enough. 

Bottom Line 

I think I need to watch some Star Trek episodes on upcoming flights.I am very excited about space and think that sentiment is widely held. I am largely excited about AI but think there is a real risk of political backlash if the industry lets fears seep into the populace at large and some politicians harness that fear. 

Hopefully, we have details on Iran and they are good and we can move on from that topic.

British Royal Marine Commandos conducted a high-stakes midnight raid in the English Channel on Sunday, boarding and seizing a sanctioned Russian "shadow fleet" oil tanker.

The elite UK forces conducted a fast-roping raid onto the massive crude carrier in the dead of night and into the morning daylight hours. While there's nothing new in terms of an 'illicit' Russian tanker seizure in European waters, it is rare or even unprecedented that such an action occurred in the English Channel, so close to Britain's shores.

According to the UK Ministry of Defense, it was a  six-hour operation and a massive display of force involving a flotilla of navy vessels - including the frigate HMS Sutherland - and a fleet of aircraft, most notably heavy-lift Chinook helicopters.

The target has since been identified as the Smyros - a vessel allegedly flying under the radar in an effort to bypass Western embargoes.

According to the MoD statement, it was indeed a significant first:

"In the first U.K.-led operation of its kind, the vessel SMYRTOS was boarded by Royal Marine Commandos and specially trained law enforcement officers from the National Crime Agency, despite Russia's best efforts to evade sanctions and continue fueling its barbaric war with Ukraine."

France has been involved in several of these interdictions and boardings, but not yet the UK, until now. The captured vessel now being escorted to an anchorage off the south coast of England, where it will remain under heavy guard and surveillance.

The UK defense ministry in follow-up sated that "Russia relies on its shadow fleet to fund their conflict in Ukraine and our interdiction delivers a blow to Putin's illegal war." The statement added that this was done in "close coordination" with French authorities.

Russian "shadow fleet" methods have relied on constantly switching registries and disabling AIS transponders to avoid tracking.

The last several seized tankers - done by France which is up to four captures at this point - were flying flags of African nations, and these interdictions have stretched back through last year. 

Watch: Royal Marine Commandos board the sanctioned Russian shadow fleet tanker SMYRTOS in the Channel, in the first UK-led operation of its kind, backed by HMS Sutherland, HMS Ledbury and an RAF P-8. The vessel is now held off the south coast as investigations continue. pic.twitter.com/omTnGlh3gk

— UK Defence Journal (@UKDefJournal) June 14, 2026

In some instances, Russia has been sending military escorts - which of course has seen French and European militaries hold off executing any action. But unprotected ones are clearly exposed, and European militaries can taken action on these at will.