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Thu, 25 Jun 2026 18:50:00 +0000 Apple, Microsoft Tumble On Abrupt Price Hikes Amid Chip-Crunch Contagion; Wall Street Responds
Apple, Microsoft Tumble On Abrupt Price Hikes Amid Chip-Crunch Contagion; Wall Street Responds
Summary:
Memory Chip Crunch Crisis May Unleash Flood Of Consumer Device Companies Hiki
Read more.....
Apple, Microsoft Tumble On Abrupt Price Hikes Amid Chip-Crunch Contagion; Wall Street Responds
Summary:
Memory Chip Crunch Crisis May Unleash Flood Of Consumer Device Companies Hiking Prices
Microsoft Hikes Prices on Xbox
Apple Hikes Prices on Macs and iPads
Wall Street Responds To Apple Hikes
Apple shares were down 5.5% in late-afternoon trading, on track for their largest intraday decline in 15 months, as the stock tumbled into correction territory. Shares are now down about 14% from their early June peak near $317.
Investors appear spooked by Apple's rare overnight price hike, which boosted Mac computers by 15% to 20% and iPad prices by 15% to 25%.
An Apple spokesperson said that "the rapid expansion of AI data centers has created an extraordinary surge in demand for memory and storage" and that the company has "never seen a component price increase this much, this quickly."
JP Morgan equity research analyst Samik Chatterjee offered clients three takeaways from Apple's price hikes:
1. Higher-than-expected magnitude of price increases on announced SKUs could drive pressure on volume expectations for Macs and iPads , which have been able to deliver robust share gains recently with Apple delaying price increases relative to competition.
2. The magnitude of the price increases announced leads us to believe that our earlier expectations for a mid-single-digit increase in iPhone pricing in conjunction with an announced launch in September is likely to be too optimistic, although we still expect Apple to use additional levers to limit the magnitude of price increases on iPhones with greater volume and installed base implications relative to the price increase announced today
3. The company continues to balance market share, revenue growth, and profitability objectives, which should reassure investors around the resilience of earnings growth drivers.
Price Hikes:
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives noted, "While Apple is well known for using its huge memory and storage purchases as leverage to secure low prices, the current memory price increases have forced Apple's hand to raise prices, but we believe the company is in a strong position to increase prices without sacrificing hardware performance and risking increasing customer churn given the company's increasing focus on the higher-end consumer ."
UBS analyst David Vogt also responded to the price hikes, telling clients that while no new iPhone price adjustments were announced on Thursday, there is reason to believe that "iPhone price increases are likely in the fall."
Vogt explained:
We expect iPhone price increases in the fall but likely flows in FY27 ests In conjunction with the expected launch of new iPhones in the fall, we expect Apple to lift effective prices anywhere from $50 to $100 along with possibly changing specs to offset the share rise in DRAM and NAND. For a typical $1,000 iPhone, memory was around $50 to $60 or a mid-single digit % of the BOM before the sharp rise in memory prices. With normalized/blended iPhone gross margins in the low 40s% range prior to recent memory dynamics, memory related BOM depending on the nature of LTAs could now be ~20% implying a broad based price increase approaching $100 could be an offset, hence we forecast 'Product' gross margin stability in FY27 in the 37-38% range.
Beyond Apple's price hikes on Thursday, Microsoft also raised prices on Xbox consoles , suggesting the memory-chip squeeze can not be contained by big tech consumer device companies. MSFT shares were down around 2.4% in late afternoon trading.
We expect more device makers heavily exposed to memory chip price volatility to adjust prices in the coming weeks and months, especially given the chip crunch will persist through year's end.
Apple Price Shock: Macs And iPads Jump $200 Or More As Memory Crisis Worsens
Readers were warned as early as late January to front-run the coming memory shortage by purchasing their favorite electronics, whether PCs, laptops, TVs, smartphones, or anything else dependent on high-end memory chips, as unprecedented data-center demand was already beginning to emerge.
Fast forward nearly five months, and just two weeks after Apple CEO Tim Cook warned that "price increases are unavoidable" for laptops and other devices, a Wall Street Journal report has confirmed that those hikes have now been passed along, potentially delivering sticker shock to customers.
Here's what happened earlier: The Apple Online Store briefly went down, and when it came back online, prices for Mac computers jumped 15% to 20%, while iPad prices increased 15% to 25%.
The company briefly took down its Apple Online Store early this morning as it typically does when announcing new products. When it came back online, the price tags for Mac computers rose roughly 15% to 20% and iPad prices rose 15% to 25%. Among the price increases, the base MacBook Air rose $200 to $1,299; the base MacBook Pro increased $300 to $1,999; the entry-level MacBook Neo increased $100 to $699. The iPad Air increased $150 to $749 and the iPad Pro increased $200 to $1,199. -WSJ
Vision Pro became even more unaffordable.
However, iPhone prices remained unchanged, but the company told the outlet in a statement that additional price hikes could be on the way.
"We have now reached a point where we need to begin raising prices," Apple said in the statement. "We have never seen a component price increase this much, this quickly."
An Apple spokesperson placed the blame on the "rapid expansion of AI data centers, which has created an extraordinary surge in demand for memory and storage," and this is why component prices surged.
Earlier this month, Cook told WSJ that price increases had become "unavoidable" because of higher component costs, adding, "There's less supply at a time when consumers want devices, and the memory guys are passing along huge price increases."
Apple has historically revealed price hikes with new launches of iPhones, iPads, and other devices, making this overnight price hike extraordinarily rare.
The high-end chip market is dominated by US-based Micron and South Korea's SK Hynix and Samsung, which have all seen massive demand for high-bandwidth memory from AI "hyperscalers" such as Google, Meta, and Amazon.
Apple's price hikes come hours after Micron delivered blowout quarterly earnings , touting gross profit margins that topped 80%. Shares soared nearly 18% in premarket trading.
Micron executives told investors that "tight conditions" will persist beyond 2027 and that only suggests further price hikes are coming not just for Apple but also for other major big tech firms that sell devices.
Micron Chief Business Officer Sumit Sadana said in a WSJ interview last night that "a couple of the customers who were being very aggressive with pricing at that time were not constructive," without naming Apple...
Sadana noted, "A lot of the industry investments got shut down in 2023 because of really poor pricing and really poor margins."
A recent Morgan Stanley note found that memory prices have climbed sixfold over the past year, with new manufacturing capacity likely to take years to build and ramp up.
The iPhone price hike may be unavoidable: JPMorgan analysts estimate DRAM and NAND could jump from roughly 10% to 15% of an iPhone's total component cost today to more than 45% by 2027.
Memory price spikes are already showing up in the Producer Price Index for semiconductor and other electronic component manufacturing.
... and at what point does President Trump start raging at memory prices, just as his administration has successfully sent oil prices crashing by entering a diplomatic phase with Tehran to secure a permanent peace deal?
Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/25/2026 - 14:50 Close
Thu, 25 Jun 2026 18:40:00 +0000 Top JPMorgan DEI Executive Identified And Fired In NYC Trash Can Viral Video
Top JPMorgan DEI Executive Identified And Fired In NYC Trash Can Viral Video
Top JPMorgan DEI Executive Identified And Fired In NYC Trash Can Viral Video
Authored by Jonathan Turley via jonathanturley.org ,
The viral video of a woman stealing a trash can and dumping its contents after the Knicks' victory has led to her termination. Angie Baez, 40, was the "Executive Director of Community and Industry Engagement for Card and Connected Commerce" for JPMorgan Chase.
She was shown in a video dumping trash on the ground to steal a Knicks-colored trash can after the NBA Finals. JPMorgan apparently concluded that this was neither the publicity nor the type of Community Engagement they are seeking.
The videotape of the incident shocked many by Baez's cavalier attitude, not just in stealing the trash can but in dumping out the garbage.
The New York Post later reported that the woman had been identified as Angie Baez. She previously served as "Executive Director of Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion" at The Infatuation, a website that reviews restaurants and neighborhood activities.
Once she was identified, JPMorgan Chase issued a statement, "This employee is no longer with the company."
We have often discussed the difficult questions surrounding the termination of employees for speech in their private lives that is considered harmful to an employer. Whether it is conduct or speech, private companies often reserve the right to terminate any employee who brings negative attention to the company, even when they do not reference or display an association with the company. In today's web-savvy world, it does not take long for motivated individuals to learn the identity and associations of public figures.
We have seen companies fire employees for drunken displays and abusing others in viral videotapes. There is little recourse in such cases, particularly for at-will employees.
In the case of Baez, she falls into the same category as Adam Smith (not the economist), who made a fool out of himself at a Chick-fil-A.
Ultimately, Baez was not even allowed to keep the trash can. She was also given a $75 fine for littering and a $100 fine for impeding Department of Sanitation operations . That proved to be an expensive memento for the Knicks victory.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/25/2026 - 14:40 Close
Thu, 25 Jun 2026 18:20:00 +0000 Trump Cuts Off NATO's Mark Rutte In Oval Office After Sitting Out Iran War
Trump Cuts Off NATO's Mark Rutte In Oval Office After Sitting Out Iran War
As expected, President Trump took the opportunity to chastise NATO for its lack of participation in the Iran war while hosting the alliance's Secretary Gener
Read more.....
Trump Cuts Off NATO's Mark Rutte In Oval Office After Sitting Out Iran War
As expected, President Trump took the opportunity to chastise NATO for its lack of participation in the Iran war while hosting the alliance's Secretary General Mark Rutte at the White House.
"We didn’t need help on this at all. We demolished them in literally the first week," Trump said of Iran before reporters, while seated across from Rutte. That's when the president said, "But it would have been nice if they would have said, ‘We’d like to help.’ We didn’t even need it, but it would have been nice if they said that."
via Associated Press
Throughout the conflict Trump has openly mused about pulling the United States out of the military alliance - or also at least withholding significant defense funding, and suggested in the Wednesday meeting that he'd be discussing the issue with Rutte behind closed doors.
"We’re going to be discussing what took place, and we’ll see what happens," he said.
Despite general negativity heaped on NATO's lax response to the Hormuz crisis and Iran campaign, Trump still offered a little praise of Rutte - who has long been generally supportive of the Trump White House.
Rutte in turn hailed Trump as "the leader of the free world" and stressed "I really want to make clear how important it is what you are doing on Iran ."
"This is, first of all, about the nuclear capability Iran was basically getting its hands on - and it would have been a threat to the region. It would’ve been a threat to the whole world. This is a country that is exporting chaos, is exporting terrorism ," Rutte described, without providing evidence of these series of claims.
Rutte tried a bit of flattery, which didn't exactly calm Trump's verbal attacks on NATO :
"I know there have been isolated cases about which you are really disappointed, but generally speaking your European allies have been there," Rutte said.
Trump appeared unconvinced, at times interrupting Rutte ?to disagree with him, though he praised his leadership.
"You really have done a good job, and I think if anybody else were in that position, we wouldn't even be meeting today, to be honest with you, because we were let down," Trump said.
Trump wasn't willing to let Rutte dodge :
“I know there have been debates about whether your allies in Europe were with you enough. I just want to say one thing,” Rutte said.
“They weren’t,” Trump interjected with a two-word comeback.
“Let me say one thing,” Rutte pleaded. “I know you think that [and] your irritation about that, but when you look at the numbers, 4,000- 5,000 US planes [took] off from bases in Europe in the six weeks this war took place.”
With props in hand, Rutte unveiled what he's calling the "Trump trillion" ...
In a couple weeks, July 7, is when the big annual NATO summit is slated to begin in Ankara, Turkey. The timing of Turkey hosting the gathering is interesting, given the country has been opposed to the US attacks on Iran, and has become a top regional enemy of Israel, with the two sides having issued heated and threated rhetoric for months.
Turkey is another US ally which is not going to lift a finger to assist the US in the Gulf area, but in terms of the pending peace deal with Tehran, and the prior signing of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), there is broad support.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/25/2026 - 14:20 Close
Thu, 25 Jun 2026 18:00:00 +0000 US Sees Record Q1 2026 Energy Storage Installations
US Sees Record Q1 2026 Energy Storage Installations
By Brian Martucci of UtilityDive
The United States added Read more.....
US Sees Record Q1 2026 Energy Storage Installations
By Brian Martucci of UtilityDive
The United States added 3.3 GW/8.4 GWh of energy storage in the first quarter of 2026, according to the latest figures from Wood Mackenzie and the American Clean Power Association. All three segments — utility-scale, residential and commercial/community/industrial — notched records for the seasonally slow first quarter.
The London-based energy consultancy and U.S. clean energy trade association see cumulative installed U.S. energy storage capacity reaching 200 GW/655 GWh by 2031, a four-fold increase from today. The forecast is consistent with a separate outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration that sees U.S. energy storage capacity doubling by the end of 2027.
The quarterly update to Wood Mackenzie/ACP’s U.S. Energy Storage Monitor expects favorable tax policy and large-load demand for colocated and behind-the-meter storage to lift installation volumes over the next several years, as U.S. battery manufacturing capacity grows.
Both Wood Mackenzie/ACP’s Q1 2026 U.S. Energy Storage Monitor and the EIA’s June 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook hint at strong near- and medium-term fundamentals for the U.S. battery energy storage industry.
The EIA expects U.S. electricity consumption to rise by 76 billion kWh in 2026 and 126 billion kWh in 2027, driven largely by increased sales to commercial, industrial and transportation users.
A battery energy storage facility. The United States added 3.3 GW/8.4 GWh of energy storage in the first quarter of 2026, according to a June report from Wood Mackenzie and the American Clean Power Association
In 2026, above-average summer temperatures across much of the U.S. will boost electricity demand to the benefit of renewables, which the EIA expects to “almost entirely” meet the increase in demand. Solar generation could rise 19% and wind generation 10% this year, the EIA said.
Solar and battery deployments, often paired at the same site, continue to dominate new generation deployments in the U.S. Solar and storage accounted for 91% of nameplate generating capacity added in the first quarter of 2026, and nearly 50% of new residential solar systems were paired with batteries during the same period, according to a June 10 report from the U.S. Solar Energy Industries Association.
One key factor behind the U.S. battery boom is the preservation of the federal investment tax credit for qualifying energy storage systems, Wood Mackenzie and ACP said. The Inflation Reduction Act first authorized those credits, which can offset 30% or more of deployment costs, in 2022. Last year, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act preserved the energy storage ITC even as it accelerated the expiration of corresponding investment and production tax credits for wind and solar systems.
WoodMac/ACP expect utility-scale storage to claim 85% of capacity additions through 2031 as large-load customers ink colocation and capacity contracts with energy storage providers.
The commercial/community/industrial segment will grow 26% through 2031 amid strong behind-the-meter demand in California and at least 215 MW of community-scale storage projects in the works nationally, WoodMac and ACP said. And after a shallow contraction in 2026 following a rush of installations ahead of the expiration of the Section 25D tax credit at the end of last year, the residential storage segment will expand at a 12% average annual pace over the next four years, the organizations said.
Spurred by tax-code changes that benefit energy storage systems with more U.S.-sourced content, domestic battery manufacturing is ramping up to meet expected demand.
The Energy Storage Coalition, an industry group, said in March that U.S. factories now have enough capacity to supply 100% of domestic demand . Some of that capacity is coming from manufacturers that previously planned to make electric vehicle batteries in the United States. Ford and General Motors , for example, both announced significant energy storage investments this year.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/25/2026 - 14:00 Close
Thu, 25 Jun 2026 17:40:00 +0000 Xbox Hits Gamers With Price-Hike As Major Retailer Warns Console Shortage Looms Ahead Of GTA VI Launch
Xbox Hits Gamers With Price-Hike As Major Retailer Warns Console Shortage Looms Ahead Of GTA VI Launch
Two reports hit on Thursday that could upset gamers ahead of the release of Grand Theft Auto VI.
First, a major retailer
Read more.....
Xbox Hits Gamers With Price-Hike As Major Retailer Warns Console Shortage Looms Ahead Of GTA VI Launch
Two reports hit on Thursday that could upset gamers ahead of the release of Grand Theft Auto VI.
First, a major retailer warned that console shortages could emerge as demand for PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X/S hardware collides with a memory chip shortage . Then The Verge reported that Xbox consoles are set for another price hike, adding another pain point for gamers months before one of the most anticipated video game releases in over a decade.
Video game industry publication The Game Business reported Thursday that the ongoing hardware component shortage, better known as the chip shortage, could spark a supply crunch for popular gaming consoles at major retailers in the coming months.
Here's what the outlet reported:
But a senior games buyer, speaking without the permission of his employer, told us: "We've been informed that because of the on-going issues around hardware component availability, we won't be getting the units we want ahead of GTA."
He added: "Demand will likely outstrip supply during the year end period."
The outlet continued:
We've contacted PlayStation and Xbox about the claim. Sony CEO Hiroki Totoki told investors in May that "for calendar year 2026, the necessary volume has been secured"
However, Xbox Chief Strategy Officer Matthew Ball told The Game Business earlier in the month that there are already supply issues.
"I can tell you definitively demand for our console exceeds the supply," he told us. "We are putting them in as many stores as possible. We are producing them as quickly as possible. There is a severe limitation to how quickly we can do that, but it's not a question of appetite. We need to do more, but there are constraints here. And so there are, unfortunately, a number of different markets in which we do not have supply. There are other markets in which we have inadequate supply. That is a privilege as a company it is a challenge for us to figure out."
When we asked about the potential impact of Grand Theft Auto 6, he said: "It's going to invigorate a lot of players. It's going to move some additional devices."
Separately, The Verge reports that Microsoft is hiking Xbox console prices again, startingAugust 11, with 512GB models increasing by $100 and 1TB models rising by $150. The price hike now means the Xbox Series S starts at around $499.99, while the disc-less Xbox Series X starts at $749.99 and the disc-drive version at $799.99.
"Last October, we increased XBOX console price by $20-$70 in the U.S.," Microsoft wrote in a blog post.
The post continued, “We hoped another price increase would not be necessary, and we have spent the last several months working with suppliers on options. Unfortunately, console storage and memory prices have increased by more than 2.5x and we expect another doubling by the fall of 2027. The entire consumer electronics industry is struggling with the current components crisis, but the effects are particularly hard on consoles. Unlike phones, computers, speakers, and other consumer devices, consoles are typically not sold at a profit, but instead for less than they cost to make."
Earlier today, Take-Two Interactive's Rockstar Games studio officially launched the long-awaited pre-orders for Grand Theft Auto VI. The action-packed game is priced at $79.99 and is scheNovember 19unch on November 19 for PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S.
The last major GTA release was GTA V,September 17hed on September 17, 2013. Gamers have been waiting 13 years for a major GTA installment, which only suggests massive demand for the game, and will likely coincide with demand for gaming consoles at the worst possible time - a memory chip shortage.
Google search trends for "pre-order Grand Theft Auto" are at their highest level since the GTA V release in 2013.
We provided readers with Wall Street commentary - from Raymond James to BTIG to Goldman analysts - discussing what their desks think of TTWO ahead of the fall release. Read the note here.
New development:
It probably makes sense for gamers to front-run potential supply issues that could materialize later this year, especially given that the memory-chip shortage is not expected to ease anytime soon.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/25/2026 - 13:40 Close
Thu, 25 Jun 2026 17:24:14 +0000 Average 7Y Auction Stops On The Screws As Foreign Demand Slides
Average 7Y Auction Stops On The Screws As Foreign Demand Slides
After a solid 2Y auction and a subpar 5Y auction earlier this week, moments ago we got the week's final Treasury issuance when the US auctioned off $44BN in 7Y paper i
Read more.....
Average 7Y Auction Stops On The Screws As Foreign Demand Slides
After a solid 2Y auction and a subpar 5Y auction earlier this week, moments ago we got the week's final Treasury issuance when the US auctioned off $44BN in 7Y paper in a perfectly average sale.
Starting at the top, the bond priced at a high yield of 4.260%, down modestly from 4.290% last month and in the middle of a range established in late-2023 after which the 7Y has traded between 3.50% and 5%. The auction also priced on the screws with the When Issued which was also at 4.260.
The bid to cover was 2.498, just under last month's 2.516 and on top of the 6-auction average of 2.488%.
The internals were a bit weaker: after Indirect bidders took down a record 78.4% in May, today their demand crashed to earth and foreign buyers ended up taking down just 57.55%, the lowest since Sept 26. And with Directs taking down 29.7%, a big jump from 11.2% in May but in line with the recent average, Dealers were left holding 12.75%, up from 10.42% a month ago and the highest since November.
Overall, this was a average-to-weak auction, with sufficiently good metrics even if the internals were a bit on the weak side. Not that the market cared (about this, or anything else); with 10Y yields extending their drop all day today, the meh auction barely registered.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/25/2026 - 13:24 Close
Thu, 25 Jun 2026 17:20:00 +0000 Obama-Appointed Federal Judge Blocks Trump's EO Requiring Proof Of Citizenship To Vote
Obama-Appointed Federal Judge Blocks Trump's EO Requiring Proof Of Citizenship To Vote
Obama-Appointed Federal Judge Blocks Trump's EO Requiring Proof Of Citizenship To Vote
Via American Greatness,
A federal judge on Wednesday permanently blocked key portions of President Donald Trump’s executive order overhauling federal election procedures, ruling that the president exceeded his constitutional authority by attempting to impose new voting requirements without congressional approval.
U.S. District Judge Denise Casper, an appointee of former President Barack Obama, concluded that the Constitution gives primary authority over elections to the states and Congress, not the executive branch.
The ruling makes permanent a preliminary injunction Casper issued last year in a lawsuit filed by Democratic attorneys general from 19 states.
“While the Constitution vests the President with ‘executive Power’ and commands him to ‘take Care that the Laws be faithfully executed,’ it does not grant the President any specific powers over elections,” Casper wrote.
“As a result, the President ‘plays no direct role in the process of appointing electors,’ nor does he have authority to control the state officials who do,” she added.
Trump’s executive order sought to require documentary proof of U.S. citizenship to register to vote, prohibit states from counting mail ballots received after Election Day even if postmarked on time, and withhold certain federal funds from states that declined to comply.
Casper ruled that the administration lacked the authority to impose those changes through executive action.
In her 59-page opinion , the judge also rejected the administration’s justification for the order, writing that the Justice Department failed to establish the widespread election problems it cited in defending the policy.
“There is no evidence in this record of widespread ‘illegal voting, discrimination, fraud, and other forms of malfeasance and error’ within American elections, which the Executive Order purports to safeguard against,” Casper wrote.
The judge also concluded that the order would have disenfranchised thousands of voters.
The decision is another legal setback for the administration’s efforts to repair federal election procedures. Courts have repeatedly blocked or limited several election-related initiatives advanced during Trump’s second term.
Additional lawsuits are challenging a separate executive order aimed at creating a nationwide voter database and tightening mail voting requirements. Earlier this week, another federal judge blocked the administration’s attempt to use an immigration database to verify voter rolls, while courts have also rejected Justice Department efforts to obtain state voter registration records.
Despite the court rulings, Trump has continued urging Congress to enact proof-of-citizenship requirements through legislation.
The Republican-backed SAVE America Act passed the House but remains stalled in the Senate.
Trump renewed that effort Wednesday, saying he would withhold his signature from a bipartisan housing bill until Congress approves voter citizenship verification requirements.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/25/2026 - 13:20 Close
Thu, 25 Jun 2026 16:40:00 +0000 A River In Egypt
A River In Egypt
By Molly Schwartz, cross-asset strategist at Rabobank
A river in Egypt
Scott Bessent took to Read more.....
A River In Egypt
By Molly Schwartz, cross-asset strategist at Rabobank
A river in Egypt
Scott Bessent took to CNBC ’s Squawk Box yesterday to opine on the situation with Iran . Bessent echoed Trump’s comments that any released Iranian assets are to remain under US Treasury oversight and are restricted to use for food and medicine. However, money is fungible, and any released cash that is used to help civilians may mean more cash from other places that can be used to support the IRGC’s interests
Bessent’s comments also called attention to another philosophical outlook on the war and the Administration’s initially stated— though seemingly not truly intended—goal of regime change . This is where the waters gets murky, and where we can climb into our Felucca and begin our journey along a river in Egypt, drifting, perhaps, into a bit of strategic “denial ” about what regime change actually means. If, hypothetically of course, Operation Epic Fury succeeded in asserting regime change in Iran, where does the US go from here? If the new Ayatollah says he is willing to table plans of further enriching uranium and wants to align itself with US interests, should the US just keep firing missiles? Do you keep Iranian assets under lock and key, even if the regime has shown you that it has changed?
Bessent said himself, “we didn’t have a regime change, but we have changed the regime.” If that is the genuine perspective of the Trump Administration, then the deal may not be as bad for the US as many perceive it to be. As our Global Strategist, Michael Every, has noted on multiple occasions, show of strength means everything in the arena of Middle Eastern geopolitics. There is a possibility that the current hardliners in the IRGC aren’t actually so hardline anymore, but are only presenting as such . Note that this is not a new base case for our outlook by any means (you can read more about our Hormuz outlook here ), but food for thought.
If the regime truly has changed, this also could have big implications for USD dominance . Bessent noted that a born-again Venezuela is shifting back towards USD invoicing, and that post-deal Iran is likely to do so as well.
Brent crude oil fell below $75/bbl for the first time since the war in Iran began , sending US Treasury markets into a tailspin. US 2-year yields dropped almost 6bp to 4.21, while the 10-year sunk almost 10bp—the largest one-day downward move since October 2025. With “peace in the Middle East,” the case for hikes is losing water by the day, with the market now pricing in 27bp worth of hikes by October, and only 40bp worth of hikes at the peak—a significant downgrade from Monday, when two full hikes had been priced in by the April 2027 FOMC decision.
Such a dramatic move in rates would normally suggest a weaker dollar , but USD was actually the best-performing G10 currency on a one-day view and the best month-to-date. The DXY index continued its climb from last week’s FOMC meeting to 101.6—the highest level since May 2025. Meanwhile, EUR/USD broke below crucial support at 1.14, fueling additional EUR selling, with the pair trading at 1.1356 at the time of writing. While the following appears to be more of an instance of correlation rather than causation, it is also important to note that yesterday’s move coincided with comments from Bessent—perhaps another slow turn of the Felucca—that USD can remain strong even when interest rates are being cut.
While USD is soaring, JPY is plummeting. USD/JPY spent the day yesterday approaching the July 3, 2024 high of 162 , with the 14D RSI at 71.83 suggesting that USD/JPY is overbought. According to Bloomberg , Bessent and Japanese Finance Minister Katayama spoke over the phone, with Katayama telling reporters that “she and Bessent agreed to take ‘bold’ steps on currencies if needed,” and said the nations are increasingly “aligned” on foreign-exchange policy.
The Bank of Canada released its Summary of Deliberations from the June 10 decision , written on papyrus. Recent Canadian economic data suggest that the Canadian economy has slipped into a technical recession, with two consecutive quarters of negative quarterly growth. The Governing Council piled into a felucca of their own, racing up de Nile , justifying that higher-frequency data suggest a “resumption of growth in the second quarter,” and that while the Canadian economy is weak, it is “not clearly in a recession.”
Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/25/2026 - 12:40 Close
Thu, 25 Jun 2026 16:20:00 +0000 French Navy Boards 5th Russian 'Shadow Fleet' Vessel Off Europe Since September
French Navy Boards 5th Russian 'Shadow Fleet' Vessel Off Europe Since September
French President Emmanuel Macron has announced yet another highly provocative naval seizure of a Russian so-called shadow fleet vessel.
"On Tue
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French Navy Boards 5th Russian 'Shadow Fleet' Vessel Off Europe Since September
French President Emmanuel Macron has announced yet another highly provocative naval seizure of a Russian so-called shadow fleet vessel.
"On Tuesday, the French navy boarded the oil tanker Deliver as it was passing off the coast of Sicily in breach of maritime law ," Macron wrote in a post on X, revealing the prior interdiction that took place earlier in the week.
Illustrative, via French Navy
Reports say it flew a Cameroonian flag and was sailing from Russia's Baltic port of Primorsk, whereupon it was boarded by French forces over a falsified registration, according to the French maritime prefecture.
France's navy escorted then the tanker to an anchorage location, where it was subject to deeper inspections my maritime authorities.
It marks no less than the fifth such boarding of a 'shadow fleet' vessel suspected of transiting sanctioned Russian goods or energy off a European coastline since September.
"We will not allow the 'shadow fleet' to circumvent sanctions and finance Russia's war effort," Macron said.
The apparent legal justification France's navy has relied on for such actions is the practice of "flag-hopping" - which involves a crew repeatedly changing displayed flags, along with often invalid registrations to thwart international tracking monitors.
The last several seized tankers were also flying flags of African nations, and these interdictions have stretched back through last year.
France's military released footage of the boarding of the 'Delivery'...
In some instances, Russia has been sending military escorts - which of course has seen French and European militaries hold off executing any action.
As a result of this latest intercept, it's likely Russia's navy will increase its military escorts, which has been more common in northern European waters, given the proximity to Russia.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/25/2026 - 12:20 Close
Thu, 25 Jun 2026 16:00:00 +0000 Trump Singles Out Exxon, Chevron, Shell, And BP Over High Gas Prices
Trump Singles Out Exxon, Chevron, Shell, And BP Over High Gas Prices
Trump Singles Out Exxon, Chevron, Shell, And BP Over High Gas Prices
By Irina Slav for OilPrice.com
President Donald Trump has listed Exxon, Chevron, Shell, and BP as being among companies responsible for excessively high fuel prices, following the announcement of a federal government probe into price-gouging earlier in the week.
“Oil prices have come down so much and we are not seeing anything at the pump by comparison the way they should be, ” the U.S. president told media, as quoted by the BBC. “We should be, in my opinion, at $2.25 [a gallon] right now at the pump and we are higher than that.”
The U.S. national average for a gallon of regular gasoline was $3.928 as of Wednesday, down from $4.0250 a week ago, but up from $3.2240 a year ago, according to AAA data . GasBuddy reported a national average of $3.85 per gallon as of Monday. Still, fuel prices have been on a decline for six weeks in a row, with diesel also dipping below $5 per gallon for the first time in weeks, bringing relief to industrial fuel consumers.
“The big Oil Companies are not dropping their price at the pump commensurate with the sharply lower prices they are paying for Oil. Those prices are dropping ?like a rock! In other words, customers are being "gouged",” Trump wrote on TruthSocial late on Tuesday. “I have instructed the DOJ to immediately start looking into this. Gasoline prices better start going down a lot faster than what I’m seeing!” the U.S. president also wrote.
In response, the American Petroleum Institute said that retail fuel prices “don't move in lockstep with crude oil”. “Our industry shares the goal of delivering relief at the pump and restoring stability to global energy markets,” API spokeswoman Bethany Williams also said.
“President Trump was clear all along that there would be short-term, temporary disruptions to energy markets, and that oil and gas prices will quickly fall as soon as the Iran situation is resolved,” a White House spokesperson told media, as quoted by the BBC.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/25/2026 - 12:00 Close