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The chaos surrounding Jensen Huang unfolded rapidly after late October 2026. 

On October 29, The New York Times reported that U.S. intelligence viewed his close relationship with Alice Huang (no relation), a Chinese executive tied to Singapore-based Megaspeed (a major NVIDIA customer under investigation for possible diversion of advanced AI chips to China), as involving a Ministry of State Security asset.

Photos from Taipei events dating to 2024, plus earlier classified memos (including one overseen by Secretary of State Marco Rubio), amplified national-security concerns about export controls and influence. 

On November 8, Huang publicly admitted in a letter to employees that he had been “unfaithful to my wife,” apologized for the harm to his family, and linked it to the reports; NVIDIA’s board launched an independent investigation. 

Shares fell sharply amid congressional requests for briefings and references to FBI scrutiny.

The crisis accelerated within days. 

On November 11, the Times reported a second extramarital affair with Kimberly Powell, NVIDIA’s vice president of healthcare who reported to Huang (including accounts of affectionate behavior at a conference). 

Reports that the board was meeting to consider ousting him sent shares plunging further (roughly 8% after hours that day, contributing to hundreds of billions in market-value losses over the period) and highlighted the lack of a clear succession plan after Huang’s 33 years as co-founder and sole CEO. 

Which brings us to today...

This morning, the board announced his immediate resignation as President, CEO, and director. 

CFO Colette Kress was named interim CEO (while retaining her finance role), Harvey C. Jones became the company’s first-ever Chair, and a search for a permanent successor began, leaving the AI industry and markets in uncertainty.

Here is the full press release:

NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) Board of Directors announced today that Jensen Huang has resigned as President, Chief Executive Officer, and a member of the Board, effective immediately.

Colette Kress, current Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of NVIDIA, has agreed to serve as Interim Chief Executive Officer. Kress will continue to serve as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer while serving as Interim Chief Executive Officer until a permanent successor has been named. The Board is initiating a search for a permanent Chief Executive Officer and will consider internal and external candidates.

Kress has served as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of NVIDIA since joining the company in September 2013. During her tenure, she has led the company’s finance organization and has played a key role in NVIDIA’s growth and evolution. Prior to joining NVIDIA, Kress spent nearly 25 years in finance roles at leading technology companies, including Cisco and Microsoft.

The Board of Directors appointed Harvey C. Jones as its first-ever Chair of the Board.  Mr. Jones has been an entrepreneur, technology executive, and active venture investor for over 30 years, including serving as Chief Executive Officer and Executive Chairman of Synopsys.

“Colette has helped lead NVIDIA through a period of extraordinary growth and has a deep understanding of our business, customers, operations and financial position,” said Harvey Jones, Chair of the NVIDIA Board of Directors. “She is supported by an experienced leadership team that has been instrumental in executing NVIDIA’s strategy and advancing its technology roadmap. The Board has full confidence in Colette and the leadership team, and we expect the company’s operations, customer commitments and product roadmap to continue without interruption.”  

“NVIDIA’s strength has always come from its people, and together with our leadership team, I am committed to building on the extraordinary foundation Jensen created over the last 33 years,” said Colette Kress, Interim CEO and CFO, NVIDIA. “We will continue advancing the work that has made NVIDIA a leader in accelerated computing and AI, and execute on the opportunities ahead. Our focus remains on serving our customers, partners, developers and shareholders.” 

Jensen’s contributions to NVIDIA are profound. NVIDIA is one of the most consequential technology companies in the world. The Board and the company thank Jensen for his immeasurable contributions to the company and the industry.

The stock is down 10% from last night's close, extending the losses overnight...

That drags the share price to its lowest since July 2025 (more than 35% from its highs)...

The new board Chair sent a message to employees:

What happens next? 

Our quick take is that this is a major governance and key-person shock, but not an immediate collapse of the AI chip business.

Huang ran a famously flat organization with dozens of direct reports, had no formal public succession plan, and was the face of NVIDIA’s strategy, lobbying, customer deals, and the broader AI narrative. Markets are now pricing that risk explicitly. Some analysts had already flagged that a forced exit could cost 20-30% in valuation.

In short: short-term chaos and discount for uncertainty, medium-term test of whether the company can institutionalize Huang’s vision without him, and a reminder that even the most dominant AI infrastructure player had extreme founder concentration risk. Earnings next week and the permanent CEO announcement will be the next clear catalysts.

The politicians are circling...

Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren says Jensen Huang's resignation from Nvidia "does not absolve him," and that he and other Nvidia executives "still owe Congress answers about the company's compliance with U.S. export controls." 

Stay tuned, we are working on a summary of Wall Street views...

Hoax bomb threats emailed to thousands of schools forced evacuations across Italy on Wednesday, and the same kind of message landed in schools in Ireland, Scotland and Northern Ireland, a week after a wave of bomb threats diverted flights across Europe. Italy's Education Ministry said the email reached about 6,000 schools, and at least 300 were evacuated, ANSA reported.

"We have come to annihilate you. We will carry out a genocide against the Italians" (translated), the email read, according to Il Sole 24 Ore. It claimed a "powerful device" (translated) had been left in a plastic bag "with a remote detonator" (translated), and another line claimed a bomb had been planted in the engine of the prime minister's car. It was signed "Mikhail Antropov, leader of the Vilayat of Misoginistan" (translated), a name Italian reports also spell Andropov.

Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni wrote on social media that "no element has emerged that would suggest a concrete danger" (translated), and said the alerts "seem attributable to a strategy" to generate alarm and concern (translated). She summoned ministers, the heads of the intelligence services and the National Cybersecurity Agency to Palazzo Chigi at 4 p.m., and invited opposition leaders for 9 a.m. Thursday.

BREAKING: Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni says 'no danger has been found' after around 300 schools in the country were evacuated due to bomb threats.

Police in Scotland and Northern Ireland had also been investigating similar threats to schools.https://t.co/Ohtagd42kV pic.twitter.com/aqhuwnGfMY

— Sky News (@SkyNews) November 11, 2026

Education Minister Giuseppe Valditara put the count of affected schools at 312 and said "the concrete risk is practically non-existent" (translated), adding that the sheer number of schools involved showed the threat's "low credibility" (translated). Defense Minister Guido Crosetto said the threats aimed "to spread fear and create anxiety," Reuters reported, while cautioning that the senders could be attention-seekers rather than a hostile state. Interior Minister Matteo Piantedosi said it was "premature to speak of a common direction" (translated).

Prosecutors in Genoa have opened a case for causing alarm, interrupting a public service and serious threats, possibly aggravated by terrorist purpose, with the postal police and the DIGOS counterterrorism police investigating, according to ANSA. The email went out from a compromised account at Taiwan's Daye University, possibly a former student's, the agency reported.

Reuters reported that the same purported author claimed responsibility for email bomb threats sent Friday to newsrooms in Ireland and Bulgaria. Its count of Italian schools that received the warning ran to about 6,300.

In Ireland, about 400 schools across Munster got the email Wednesday morning, along with schools in Dublin, The Journal reported; the news site said it received the same kind of threat, as did RTÉ, Sky News, Reuters, the BBC and The Guardian. Gardaí assessed it as "not credible" and did not advise evacuation, and the National Security Intelligence Service is investigating.

About 470 schools in Scotland received the threat, The Telegraph reported, along with some 300 in Northern Ireland, where the Education Authority said the email resembled last month's hoax. Police Scotland said its enquiries found nothing to suggest a credible threat to the schools or the wider public:

On 11/11/26, several schools in Scotland & across the UK received threatening messages. Our enquiries have established that there is nothing to suggest that they represent a credible threat or that there is any wider threat to the public. 

More info ?? https://t.co/DaJ4U6S7gI pic.twitter.com/FOuwbczgAz

— Police Scotland (@PoliceScotland) November 11, 2026

On Oct. 19, Northern Ireland Education Minister Paul Givan said a threat emailed to 160 schools that morning was signed off "Allah Akbar" and appeared to come "from Islamists threatening that Sharia law will be brought into our country," Euronews reported. Police in Northern Ireland and Scotland treated that wave as a hoax as well.

Last Thursday, as we reported, at least 18 commercial flights in Europe faced bomb threats; an Aer Lingus jet from Dublin to Rome landed at a French military air base, a Finnair flight to Rome was escorted by fighter jets, and no explosives were found.

In Reuters' telling, the school emails are the latest in a series of threats and cyberattacks across Europe against supermarkets, blood banks, air traffic and broadcasters. France summoned Iran's ambassador on Tuesday, accusing Tehran of a cyberattack that disabled refrigerators in hundreds of supermarkets; Iran called the accusation "baseless and hostile." US agencies have since warned that hackers are going after commercial refrigeration controllers, as we noted. Some European officials suspect Russia of running a disruption campaign against Ukraine's backers, which Moscow denies.

A national security source told Reuters that "the e-mails are public," and that sending the alerts "was as easy as drinking a glass of water."

European natural gas futures jumped for a third day as colder weather accelerated withdrawals from already dangerously low inventories that are well below seasonal norms across the energy-stricken continent.

Dutch front-month futures traded 3.7% higher at 89.85 euros per megawatt-hour as new data from Gas Infrastructure Europe showed that withdrawals are outpacing year-earlier levels. Prices jumped to as much as 104.65 euros last week but quickly faded as the war risk premium in energy cratered on promising diplomatic signals of a potential end to the Gulf conflict and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

But EU NatGas prices are rising once again because, despite promising signs of a resolution in the Gulf, the continent is three weeks into a drawdown of its gas reserves, which are already well below the 10-year seasonal average.

Winter Arrives

Forecasts point to colder conditions across the UK, Germany, France and the Alpine region. London temperatures are expected to average more than 5°C below normal on Friday and Saturday, according to Vaisala.

"Earlier expectations for a late accumulation of gas stocks as a result of the strong El Niño conditions in the Pacific causing a mild start to the winter in Europe have been dashed," independent energy analyst and former Reuters columnist John Kemp wrote in a note.

Kemp added more color:

Northwest Europe is still only about one-tenth of the way through the typical heating season so there is a very high degree of uncertainty.

So far this winter, however, heating demand has been below the average for the last ten years, which should have helped inventory accumulation and delayed the onset of storage draws.

Instead, the failure to build stocks later into the autumn is an especially troubling signal.

Europe's gas suppliers are expecting to rely much more heavily on imported LNG to satisfy heating and electricity generation requirements over the peak winter months from December to February.

More gas may also become available from Qatar to customers in Asia and Europe as loadings have accelerated and more LNG carriers have slipped through the Strait of Hormuz in recent weeks.

Even so, inventories are uncomfortably low and the storage situation has worsened in recent weeks with the arrival of the first spell of colder temperatures this winter.

Europe's benchmark gas futures prices have retreated by almost one-fifth since the end of October, coinciding with the sharp fall in crude oil prices.

The United States has signalled it prefers to rely on a continuation of the shipping blockade and economic pressure rather than an imminent resumption of unrestrained warfare with Iran.

Even so, front-month gas futures have averaged €88 so far this month, almost three times higher than €32 in the same month a year ago, and the highest for nearly four years after adjusting for inflation.

Exceptionally high prices are sending a very strong signal to electricity generators, industrial users and households about the need to reduce consumption.

Europe needs to deplete storage much more slowly than average this winter to make stocks last as long as possible and avoid them falling critically low before the heating season ends.

Brussels spent years pushing an information operation to sell its globalist climate agenda, which ultimately nuked its energy security. Now Europe heads into winter with depleted gas stocks, sky-high prices, and a growing dependence on imported LNG, where it must fight for cargoes on international markets. For the pro-EU elites who promised a green energy utopia, well, you better start praying for some of that warmth - or face a devastating blow to households and industries. 

Three datasets, three different economies.

In one, layoffs are scarcer than at any point since Nixon's first year in office. In another, consumers are only a few points above the most miserable reading in the 70-plus year history of the University of Michigan survey. And in the third, hiring has been so sluggish for so long that a single blowout payrolls print barely dents the 12-month average.

Last week we called this "Low Hire, Low Fire, Low Inspire", and then the October jobs report promptly blew away every estimate, sentiment unexpectedly jumped, and CPI ran hot (again). So did the trilemma resolve itself? Not really. If anything, it just got a lot more expensive, because Goldman now thinks the Fed will hike its way through it.

Low Fire: Fewer Claims Than The Best Week Of 2019

Start with the part that is unambiguously strong. Initial jobless claims remain near the lowest since 1969, though ticked up modestly last week to 200k.

The four-week average dropped to 195,250, also the lowest since 1969 and down from 225,500 a year ago. For perspective, claims averaged roughly 218K in 2019, and the best single week that year was 196K. In other words, over the past month the US has averaged fewer new claims than in the single best week of the pre-Covid "golden age".

Continuing claims tell the same story: 1.697 million, about 250K fewer than a year ago, with the share of covered workers collecting benefits down from 1.3% to 1.1%.

JOLTS confirms it from the employer side: the layoffs and discharges rate fell to 1.0% in September, with 1.6 million let go. American employers simply refuse to fire anyone in any meaningful numbers, for now.

Low Hire: The Payrolls Beat That Didn't Fix The Hiring Rate

Then came last Friday's curveball. Nonfarm payrolls rose 165K in October against a 70K median forecast, a 5-sigma beat, with August revised up to 186K and September to 60K. Goldman's economists were caught as flat-footed as everyone else (they were at 75K), and their note (available to pro subs) did the arithmetic:

"After upward revisions to the two prior months, the three-month average of payroll growth stands at 137k (vs. 51k prior to today's report), and our estimate of the underlying pace of job growth based on the payroll and household surveys stands at 124k (vs. 51k prior to today's report)."

So the hiring problem is solved? Not so fast. Even Goldman flagged that October's bounce fits a familiar seasonal pattern: stronger October payrolls tend to follow a weak September whenever Labor Day falls late in the month, as it did this year. Strip out the calendar quirk and the 12-month average gain was just 48K before October. And 2025 was a near-zero year.

The flow data are even less flattering. September JOLTS showed openings jumping to 7.52 million, yet the hires rate is still stuck at 3.4%, with about 5.4 million hires. That is the definition of a frozen market: companies hold onto everyone they have, post vacancies, and then mostly don't fill them. And ADP's weekly series has private payrolls rising an average of 19,750 a week in the four weeks to Oct 24, which works out to roughly 80K a month (napkin math). That's decent, but hardly a hiring boom.

Look under the hood of the October report and the picture gets murkier still. The U6 underemployment rate jumped 0.3pp to 7.9%, which Goldman attributes largely to a 171K increase in marginally attached workers. Average hourly earnings grew 3.12% y/y, which is below the 3.7% headline CPI print for September. Real wages are going backwards. Remember that when we get to the sentiment numbers.

Low Inspire: 57% Say Their Living Standards Are Eroding

Which brings us to the third leg. The preliminary November UMich index jumped 3 points to 51.0, beating the 48.0 consensus (and Goldman's 49.5).

UMich Sentiment 51.0, Exp. 48.0

Current Conditions 51.0, Exp. 47.0
Expectations 50.9, Exp. 49.0

1 Year inflation exp 4.3%, Exp 4.6%
5-10 Year inflation exp 3.4%, Exp. 3.5%

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 6, 2026

Good news? Only relative to the floor. The index plunged to an all-time low of 44.8 in May as the Hormuz shock sent gasoline soaring, and as we noted last Friday, the November bounce was driven by Independents. A reading of 51 is still deep in territory that historically comes with recessions, not with 189K claims. Goldman's chart (chart source GS, UMich) shows just how far below the 1990, 2001 and 2008 troughs consumers are now:

The most telling line in the report was not the headline at all. As Goldman flagged, quoting the survey's director:

"About 57% spontaneously mentioned that their living standards have been eroded by high prices, the highest seen since May and up from 46% in February, just prior to the Iran conflict."

That's the trilemma in a single sentence. People have jobs. They just can't afford anything. Year-ahead inflation expectations did ease to 4.3% from 4.7%, but that is still well above where they were before the energy shock, and above the pace of wage growth:

One more caveat: interviews for the preliminary survey ran from October 20 to November 2, which means they closed before the election and before last Thursday's AI rout. So the "bounce" may turn out to be the high-water mark when the final November number lands next Friday.

Squaring The Circle: A Frozen Labor Market In A Stagflationary Fog

So how can all three be true at once? The simplest reconciliation goes like this:

• Low churn keeps claims down. Firms that struggled to hire in 2022-2023 are hoarding labor, and with a 3.4% hires rate, workers aren't quitting to chase better jobs either.
• Low hiring keeps the jobless and new entrants stuck. That shows up in U6 and marginally attached workers, not in claims, since you can't file for benefits from a job you never got.
• Prices, not pink slips, drive the mood. Households with jobs are watching wages lose to inflation, and an energy shock is the most visible kind of inflation there is.

Translation: this is a cost-of-living recession for households sitting on top of a no-firing labor market. Bloomberg Economics called it the "New Labor-Market Norm" in a note this week, and its subtitle is the important part: "New Challenge for the Fed."

Enter The Hawks: Goldman Adds A Third Hike

Because here's the twist. In the old playbook, weak sentiment plus mediocre hiring meant a dovish Fed. In the Warsh era, with the funds rate already lifted to 3.75%-4.00% in September, it means the opposite. After Tuesday's CPI, Goldman's David Mericle went further (also available to pro subs):

"The October CPI report this morning surprised meaningfully to the upside across several categories and marked a third month of worse inflation news. We continue to expect a second 25bp rate hike in December and are adding a third 25bp hike to our forecast in March 2027."

Goldman also pushed back the start of rate cuts by a quarter, to December 2027. And the bank thinks most FOMC participants will pencil a third hike into December's dot plot. With 189K claims and a 165K payrolls print, the Fed has all the cover it needs to tighten. That is exactly what the 57% complaining about living standards don't need: higher mortgage, auto and credit-card rates on top of higher prices.

Regular readers will recall that we flagged this setup when September CPI sent rate-hike odds "flashing red" in mid-October. A month later, the Fed is hiking into a labor market where nobody gets hired and a consumer who already feels poorer. Diversification at its finest.

The Floor Holds... Until It Doesn't

Goldman ends on a reassuring note, confident that "inflation will be meaningfully lower by the end of 2027 as the effects of tariffs, the energy shock, and AI price pressures diminish." Maybe. But end-2027 is a long way off for a household already spending more than it earns in real terms.

Our take: the bulls will point to claims and say recession is off the table, and they'll be right, for now. But a low-fire market is only reassuring until it isn't. Claims are a coincident indicator, and they tend to look their best right before they turn. Pair a 3.4% hires rate with three Fed hikes and a consumer this gloomy, and the next shoe to drop is far more likely to be layoffs than a hiring boom. The trilemma probably won't resolve with sentiment catching up to claims. More likely, claims eventually catch down to sentiment.

Next up: November UMich final on Friday, Nov 20, then the November payrolls report on Dec 4, just days before the Fed meets on Dec 8-9.

Much more in the full Goldman "USA: Payroll Growth Well Above Expectations..." and "US Daily: Adding a Third Hike in March" notes, both available to pro subs.

President Trump has begun his Thursday morning with statements saying that the United States no longer sees a need to negotiate a diplomatic agreement with Iran. 

"We don't need a deal with Iran," the president stated, saying further: "Those days have long since passed."

He argued that Washington already holds decisive leverage, pointing to hundreds of billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets and US control over the Strait of Hormuz.

The comments come amid broader signals of a pivot within the administration's priorities. Rather than focusing on diplomatic outreach with Tehran - efforts which Vice President JD Vance has previously been a key part of - Trump announced that he has tasked Vance with leading a domestic crackdown on what he described as "massive corruption" in Democratic-led U.S. cities.

Oil prices jumped on the return to 'no deal' news...

And meanwhile:

Iranian Army says two tankers struck naval mines while passing through the Strait of Hormuz, ISNA reports

It seems Trump was in part responding by the Truth Social post to yesterday's headline in The Wall Street Journal saying Vance was seeking direct talks with Iranian 'hardliners'.

"Vice President JD Vance is considering face-to-face talks with a top Iranian security official as he emerges as the lead negotiator with Iran, say U.S. and Middle East officials and people familiar with the negotiations, in an effort to end a war seen as a drag on the Republican Party," that Wednesday report stated.

"In recent days, President Trump has told top aides and counterparts he’s open to Vance restarting talks with Iran and has empowered him to negotiate, U.S. and Middle Eastern officials said. U.S. officials stressed that discussions about sending Vance to meet directly with Iranian officials remain preliminary," WSJ reported.

So with Trump's Thursday words, that initiative is effectively dead, it appears. Meanwhile things will likely continue to go from bad to worse in the Strait of Hormuz, as the IRGC has ramped up targeting of international shipping which violates Tehran's transit protocol. Attacks, especially via sea mines, are happening at a rate of at least a half-dozen instances per week.

US futures are lower, led by a slide in Nasdaq contracts, after Nvidia's board started hunting for a replacement for Jensen Huang following reports of multiple extramarital affairs, including one with an alleged Chinese spy, turning the AI trade's central bank into its biggest single risk; meanwhile the haven bid sent long-end Treasuries higher and 30Y yields as low as 5.32%. As of 8:20am ET, S&P futures are down 0.7%, while Nasdaq futures are 1.5% lower; Dow futures are down 0.4% as money rotates out of tech. That follows a session in which the S&P rose 1.3% to 7,619 and the Philly semis index soared 5.7% as CoreWeave's results eased fears about AI spending, erasing the Nasdaq's post-midterm losses. Premarket, Nvidia is down 6-7% after sliding as much as 9% after hours, confirming our report from last night, while the rest of the Mag 7 is little changed and Nvidia's rivals are feasting on the carnage: AMD is up 4% and Broadcom 2.9%, while neoclouds and AI hardware names such as CoreWeave and Super Micro slump. The day's driver is Nvidia (and its HR department): the board is meeting to decide Huang's fate, is working with an outside firm to find candidates, and some directors favor CFO Colette Kress as interim CEO; Democratic senators want records on Nvidia chip exports to China preserved, days before Xi hosts Trump in Shenzhen. In rates, long-end Treasuries rose as cash trading resumed after the Veterans Day holiday, with the curve twisting flatter as the short end underperforms; the 10Y is flat near 4.99% and swaps still price 28bps of Fed hikes in December, i.e. a certain quarter-point move and a small chance of a jumbo half-point hike. The Bloomberg dollar index dipped 0.1% after touching its highest since May 2025, and the yen hovers just below 160 despite more jawboning from Tokyo. In commodities, oil slipped toward a two-month low near $86 WTI despite Iran saying two supertankers were halted by explosions in Hormuz, gold fell 1% to about $3,950 after failing to hold $4,000, and copper is lower; bitcoin is down 1% around $73,500. US economic data slate includes initial jobless claims (8:30am), October existing home sales (10am) and the October federal budget balance (2pm). Fed speaker slate includes Hammack (9am), Barr (10am), Goolsbee (11:15am), Daly (1:10pm), Schmid (1:30pm) and Williams (6:30pm). The Treasury sells $25 billion of 30-year bonds at 1pm.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower: NVDA falls 7% as the company’s board has been working with an outside firm to identify potential replacements for Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang following reports of multiple extramarital affairs (Alphabet (GOOGL) -0.2%, Amazon (AMZN) +0.4%, Apple (AAPL) +0.4%, Meta Platforms (META) -0.6%, Microsoft (MSFT) -0.2%, Tesla (TSLA) -0.9%)

• Artificial intelligence-related stocks fall amid the leadership crisis at Nvidia. 
• Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) climbs 1% and and Broadcom (AVGO) rises nearly 1% on bets they may win business from chip giant Nvidia. 
• Corteva (CTVA) falls 9% after after the agricultural chemical and seed company cut its full-year Ebitda guidance, citing materially weaker market conditions in Brazil.
  Digi International (DGII) falls 18% after the communications software company’s first-quarter and full-year outlooks failed to impress. 
• Eli Lilly (LLY) gains 2% after its China unit said Foundayo tablet was approved as a Class 1 new drug for adult weight managbioement by the country’s National Medical Products Administration, according to a WeChat statement. 
• Maravai LifeSciences (MRVI) climbs 4% after KeyBanc upgraded the stock to overweight, saying the life sciences firm is best positioned to benefit from Democrats’ win in the US midterm elections. 
• National Vision Holdings (EYE) falls 16% after the  the optical retailer posted disappointing third quarter revenue. 
• Nebius Group (NBIS) falls 8% after the provider of a cloud platform designed for AI builders sees 2027 capital expenditures of $40 billion to $45 billion versus the Bloomberg average analyst estimate of $28.76 billion. 
• T1 Energy (TE) falls 9% after the solar equipment maker reported third-quarter revenue that missed the average analyst estimate as production costs rose.
• Tetra Tech (TTEK) climbs 10% after the engineering company’s 2027 net revenue forecast topped analysts’ estimates at the midpoint of the range.
• Yeti (YETI) plunges 7% after the maker of travel drinkware and coolers cut its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year.

In other corporate news, while Nvidia's board searches for a CEO, the rest of the AI capital machine keeps humming: CoreWeave plans to raise at least $4 billion via an investment-grade loan, and Anthropic's IPO, which could raise as much as $90.4 billion including a private placement, is already multiple times oversubscribed before pricing on Nov. 18 (as we noted, oversubscribed books have a mixed track record). MSCI dropped Strategy from its global equity benchmarks, potentially triggering billions of dollars in stock sales. BP is in talks to sell a stake in Brazil's Bumerangue block, its biggest discovery in 25 years, to Petrobras. Google suffered a setback in its fight over a nearly €1.5 billion EU antitrust fine after an adviser to the bloc's top court sided with the Commission. Canada's CPPIB plans to boost its hedge fund allocation to about $160 billion. Southern Co. is offering $1.75 billion of equity units and Guardant Health priced $500 million of zero-coupon converts. Separately, Citrini's Jukan claims Nvidia's Rubin has been delayed again, with volume shipments slipping to 2027, and Axios reports Trump authorized a crackdown on companies diverting Nvidia's advanced chips to China.

The global framing this morning is a simple one: a rebound in tech came to a halt as traders confronted a leadership crisis at the company that sits at the center of the AI supply chain, and which has spent the past two years handing out the circular financing that kept the whole ecosystem humming. The early read is that money is moving within the theme rather than out of it: AMD, Broadcom and Alphabet have all gained on bets they could win business from Nvidia, while Europe is rising for a fourth day as investors rotate out of AI and into healthcare and consumer names. As Bloomberg's Before the Bell put it, if Nvidia's rivals keep rising this is a reshuffle within the AI trade; if they crack too, the wider market's calm may not last.

JonesTrading's Mike O'Rourke argues that whoever succeeds Huang will not be able to keep handing out circular financing deals the way Nvidia has, which is a problem for every neocloud and startup on the other side of those deals.

Barclays strategist Julien Lafargue notes that since Nvidia has been called the central bank of the AI trade, the turmoil will have implications, though he does not expect the AI trade to be derailed in the long run.

Bloomberg Intelligence's Mandeep Singh expects any replacement to be "quite conservative," and Dan Ives at Yorkville Ives reckons Nvidia is worth 25% less without Huang as CEO. Analyst downgrades have started rolling in, with Oppenheimer cutting the stock to Market Perform.

And yet, the market keeps doing what it's not supposed to: the VIX closed at 17.5 last night, back below the 20 stress threshold, and the AI complex has bounced hard even as core parts remain deep in bear territory, as the chart below shows. Today is the first real test of whether that calm holds.

Goldman Delta-One head Rich Privorotsky found it "quite impressive how much we've managed to rally in the face of the macro backdrop and increasingly idiosyncratic problems at Nvidia." He stressed that Wednesday was emphatically not a broad move: semis did the heavy lifting (SOX +5.5%, ARM and Micron +12% each) while Microsoft, Meta and Amazon finished lower, and the standout was GS's Retail Favorites basket, up 495bps in its third-best day in three years. The vol complex has largely reset, with the SPX vol curve un-inverting and skew flattening, and he notes that the fact the market can absorb this much Nvidia-specific pressure without broader capitulation is noteworthy. His open question is whether this is just the mechanical result of light positioning and short covering, or the start of something more durable. On AI, he still separates fundamental compute demand from multiples, with hyperscalers best placed, and expects the infrastructure trade to deliver episodic, high-beta rallies rather than buy-and-hold returns. His bottom line: a durable breakout needs lower rates, lower energy and broader leadership, and "the market needs oil fixed and rates lower... absent that, I suspect we chop rather than break out", although reset positioning and elevated vol are powerful short-term tailwinds (more on his views here).

Elsewhere at Goldman, Sean Johnstone on the London TMT desk says hedge funds and long-only accounts have started chasing the US semis bounce, with the SOX up nearly 20% from its lows but still about 25% below its highs; similar buying has yet to show up in Europe. Prime Brokerage's Marco Laicini reports that systematic long/short managers had their best two-day return in almost three years as momentum renormalized and crowded trades recovered. In FX, Mike Cahill points out that CPI has now beaten consensus by a cumulative 32bps over four months with no single category driving it, a broad-based pattern that looks like a missed "trend factor" reminiscent of 2021-22, which helps explain why Goldman added a third hike. And GS economists estimate US AI investment will hit $1.4 trillion annualized by end-2027, about 4% of GDP, while flagging the risk of data-center moratoria from newly elected Democratic governors in Texas, Georgia and Michigan.

JPMorgan's Market Intelligence desk under Andrew Tyler calls this morning's weakness more profit-taking than a reversal, noting semis have retraced all their post-midterm losses, but stays hesitant to declare the all-clear on AI because clients are selling into up-days in tech and semis. The desk remains Tactically Bullish, sees hyperscalers as the main beneficiaries of any residual semis weakness, and prefers playing cyclicals through Europe rather than the US. Manish Sinha warns rotation risk in semis is rising, with a possible 10% pullback, as Wednesday's move came on light liquidity. JPM's positioning team (John Schlegel) says investors are closing gaps and neutralizing risk mostly by covering shorts rather than chasing: global equity futures positioning moved from -0.9z to -0.1z in a week, and Stoxx 50 positioning is at a 12-month high. Strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas reiterates his 8,000 year-end S&P target, arguing the de-leveraging is far along: October was the biggest single-month unwind for long momentum on record, and AI multiples have dropped about 35% since May.

Commenting on the overnight action, Integrity Asset Management's Joe Gilbert told Bloomberg that “This is an unequivocal negative for Nvidia and the entire AI ecosystem. He is not only the face of AI but arguably the architect of the AI infrastructure. It will be difficult if not impossible to replicate Jensen's vision.” Bloomberg Markets Live team leader Garfield Reynolds said “The broadening turmoil surrounding Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang may hit the AI ecosystem all the harder for coming at a time when optimism was building for a sustained rebound. Nvidia's role at the heart of financing for much of the sector means that the prospect of a sudden change of management carries risks well beyond those for the company alone.” Natixis CIB strategist Emilie Tetard added that “a good safe haven would be bonds,” and that “Maybe the dollar will be the safe haven if rates are higher. It's tough to see which one will materialize.”

In Europe, the bond story is a quiet one: bunds and gilts are bid by 10-20 ticks as lower energy prices and the tech wobble help, shrugging off UK GDP that grew 0.7% in Q3 (its fastest in two and a half years) and supports the case for a back-to-back BOE hike in December; BlackRock's Alex Brazier thinks the BOE may deliver the three to four additional hikes priced in. Germany's Constitutional Court dismissed the challenges to the ECB's PEPP bond buying.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is up 0.5% at 665.56, extending its streak to a fourth day and building on Wednesday's first record close since August, with 436 members up and 150 down as investors rotate out of AI and into healthcare and consumer names; the DAX is up 1.1% at a record. Retail, consumer products and healthcare lead while tech and basic resources lag, with ASML, Infineon, Nokia and Soitec sliding on the Nvidia news. JPM's desk notes Germany and SMIDcaps lead and Spain lags, with value and size beating momentum, consistent with Privorotsky's view that Europe's broader leadership is what US markets lack. Here are the biggest European movers:

• B&M shares gain as much as 20%, the biggest intraday advance since the discount retailer listed in London 12 years ago, after a trading performance Jefferies described as “impressive.”
• Adecco shares rise as much as 16% after the Swiss staffing company reported a third-quarter earnings beat and analysts pointed to improving margins and hiring volumes, as well as additional cost savings.
• Siemens shares rise as much as 5.2%, the most since April, after 4Q results beat estimates, fiscal year 2026 orders hit a record, and the German industrial group raised its medium-term growth targets.
• Burberry shares climb as much as 9.6%, the biggest intraday gain since April, after the company reported results that analysts said compared favorably in a more challenging luxury trading environment.
• Allegro shares advance as much as 5.7%, to the highest in five years, after the Polish e-commerce platform delivered a third-quarter earnings beat, upgraded full-year guidance and won cheaper parcel rates from InPost.
• Merck KGaA shares rise as much as 3.1%, to the highest since October 2024, after the German conglomerate boosted its 2026 earnings forecast for the third time this year.
• Rolls-Royce shares rise as much as 3.9% after the engineering and defense company announced a new £1.5b interim buyback and delivered what Morgan Stanley sees as a “positive and reassuring” trading update.
• Chipmakers and companies part of Europe’s broader AI ecosystem decline as Nvidia’s board meets to consider replacing CEO Jensen Huang. Decliners include ASML, Soitec, Infineon and Nokia.
• Endeavour Mining shares slump as much as 10% after a third-quarter EBITDA beat was overshadowed by concerns that disruptions to operations at its Mana mine could pose downside risks.
• FLSmidth shares drop as much as 7.1%, the most since early February, as JPMorgan says the mining-equipment maker’s new mid-term target for organic revenue growth is disappointing.
• Partners Group shares slips as much as 2.3% as Goldman Sachs downgrades the Swiss private equity firm to sell from neutral, citing mixed fundamentals.
• Telefonica shares fall as much as 3.2% after the Spanish telecom cut its full-year revenue growth forecast and reported 3Q results in Germany that analysts see as weak.

Asian stocks fell as Nvidia's leadership turmoil overshadowed the Wall Street tech rebound, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index down 0.8% after erasing an early gain of as much as 0.4%. Taiwan's Taiex sank 2.6% after a 17% four-session rally, with TSMC down 2.3%, and the Taiwan dollar closed at a 19-month low. The Hang Seng fell 1.3% and the Hang Seng Tech index 2%, with Alibaba down 6.8% on chip-access fears and a tepid Singles' Day, while SMIC and Hua Hong rose on the prospect of local substitution. The Kospi slipped 0.6% even as foreigners were net buyers for a third day, and the CSI 300 dropped 0.8%. The Nikkei fell 0.7% to 60,819 after hitting 61,788 intraday, with Nvidia supplier Ibiden sliding more than 8%, while the Topix edged up 0.2%; Goldman's Tokyo desk titled its note "Jensen anxiety" and saw net selling led by European accounts. Japan's October PPI ran hotter than expected at 7.1% y/y, but BOJ dove Asada urged caution on the pace of hikes. Indonesia's JCI rallied 2.3% even as the rupiah hit a record low that drew central bank intervention, and Indian CPI accelerated to 6.09%.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is down 0.1% after touching its highest since May 2025, and the DXY briefly topped 103 (its highest since April 2025) before easing back toward 102.85. Havens lead the G10, with the Swiss franc up 0.2% against the dollar, while the Aussie is the worst performer at 0.6835 after earlier hitting its lowest since January on RBA slowdown and AI fears. USD/JPY sits near 159.75 after Japan's top currency diplomat Mimura said moves were too fast, a warning traders ignored given widening yield differentials; Goldman says pre-CPI dollar shorts and long-yen positions were stopped out. EUR/USD is around 1.1090, near an 18-month low.

In rates, Treasuries are modestly firmer as cash trading resumes after the Veterans Day holiday, with the long end catching a haven bid on the Nvidia turmoil while the front end underperforms, extending the curve flattening that followed Tuesday's hot CPI. The 30-year yield fell as much as 3bps to 5.32% and the 10Y is unchanged around 4.99%. Swaps continue to price 28bps of hikes for the December meeting, meaning traders see a quarter-point move as certain plus a small chance of a half-point move after Waller floated the idea and Goolsbee called the latest inflation data "borderline disturbing"; today's six Fed speakers will be parsed for any further openness to 50bps (yes, the debate is about how much to hike). Supply comes in the form of a $25 billion 30-year bond auction at 1pm. In Europe, bunds and gilts are up 10-20 ticks, Italy sold €6.75 billion of BTPs, and the UK's 2033 gilt sale drew a 3.52x bid-to-cover.

In commodities, WTI is down 0.9% at $85.76 and Brent is down 0.9% at $91.96, hovering near two-month lows. Prices briefly spiked, with Brent touching $93.94, after the IRGC said explosions halted two supertankers carrying more than 4 million barrels on the "unauthorized" route through the Strait of Hormuz, but the move unwound as focus returned to a WSJ report that VP Vance could meet Iran's Rezaei; Saudi Arabia also told OPEC its output surged 26% in October. Later Iran said it is reviewing an NPT exit as an "unavoidable necessity," per Fars. European gas is the exception, with Dutch TTF up more than €3 to above €90/MWh on colder weather models and unconstructive Russian commentary ahead of Putin's meeting with US envoys Witkoff and Kushner. Spot gold is down about 1% near $3,950 after failing to hold $4,000 as the dollar stays firm and Treasuries act as the haven, and LME copper is just below $13,700 on the AI-ecosystem hit. The EIA weekly inventory report is due at noon, delayed a day by the holiday.

US economic data slate includes initial jobless claims (8:30am, est. 194k, prior 189k), October existing home sales (10am, est. 3.85m) and the October federal budget balance (2pm). Fed speaker slate includes Hammack (9am), Barr (10am), Goolsbee (11:15am), Daly (1:10pm), Schmid (1:30pm) and Williams (6:30pm). Applied Materials and Cisco report after the close; Kraft Heinz hosts an investor day in New York and Woodside holds a capital markets day.

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• Vice President JD Vance is considering face-to-face talks with a top Iranian security official as he emerges as the lead negotiator with Iran, in an effort to end a war seen as a drag on the Republican Party: WSJ (probably not any more after the Trump post)
• American efforts to bring down diesel prices allowed Russia to double its exports of the fuel last month, although none of the shipments generated by Trump’s decision to lift fuel sanctions against Moscow have reached the US: FT
• Beijing said the US should stop using allegations of Chinese spying on Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang to justify technology restrictions, a dispute that has put the US-China trade truce (which expires in January) to the test, while Democratic senators asked the Trump administration to preserve all records regarding the export of Nvidia chips to China: BBG
• Democrats added Mississippi to their midterm gains as Scott Colom upset Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith, becoming the state’s first Black senator since Reconstruction: BBG
• Nvidia’s board met to discuss Jensen Huang’s future following a NYT report that he had a relationship with one of his direct reports, and the company is said to be working with an outside adviser on potential replacements; a Huang exit may make it harder for Nvidia to keep pulling ahead in chips and AI and would weaken the industry’s most influential opponent of tighter US controls on China: BBG
• Nvidia closed with a 14-day RSI of ~24 yesterday, the lowest since mid-2019, as the two highest-volume days of the past year for the shares came this week and the stock has shed about $430bn of market cap: GS
• China’s central bank gave little away in its latest quarterly report, but analysts’ key takeaway is that no rate cuts are on the near-term horizon, with the PBOC reiterating a pro-growth, accommodative stance while again flagging the risk of too-low rates: WSJ
• Japan’s corporate goods inflation accelerated for the first time in three months, with the PPI up 7.1% in October from a year earlier and 0.7% on the month, the fastest since May, adding to the case for a Bank of Japan rate increase next month: BBG
• Japan’s FX chief Atsushi Mimura warned the yen’s recent moves were too fast, signaling authorities remain ready to intervene, while BOJ board member Toichiro Asada urged caution on the pace of rate hikes: BBG
• The UK economy grew 0.7% in the third quarter, its fastest pace in two and a half years, matching estimates, and GDP rose 0.2% in September alone: BBG
• Some NVIDIA (NVDA) directors favour CFO Kress as interim CEO: Semafor
• White House said it isn’t intervening in NVIDIA (NVDA) board’s decision: WaPo
• Alleged Chinese spy in the NVIDIA (NVDA) scandal Alice Huang is reportedly in China and is living in Beijing with the knowledge of security officials: BBG
• US President Trump on Thursday authorised a crackdown on companies suspected of diverting Nvidia's (NVDA) advanced AI chips to China, with the Trump-approved curb yet to happen: Axios

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were ultimately lower in two-way trade and with gains ultimately reversed as the momentum from the continued tech rebound on Wall St was clouded by the fallout from a report regarding NVIDIA CEO Huang's extramarital affair with a Co. executive. This spurred doubts regarding his future at the helm of the tech giant, with the board in a meeting on his future and said to be preparing to oust him. ASX 200 finished slightly lower as strength in financials and real estate was counterbalanced by underperformance in the mining, materials and resources sectors. Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses, while participants also digested firmer-than-expected PPI data, as well as comments from Takaichi-appointed BoJ board member Asada, who stated that they need to watch downside economic risks and need to be cautious about the pace of rate hikes. KOSPI saw two-way price action amid the tech-related headwinds. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp retreated, with weakness seen in tech and ecommerce stocks, as the likes of Alibaba and JD.com underperformed after the tepid Singles' Day sales growth underscored weak consumer spending, while there were reportedly concerns that the NVIDIA CEO spy scandal may prompt Washington to restrict remote use of advanced chips.

Top Asian News

• Indonesia former president Jokowi's son Gibran resigns as Indonesia's Vice President.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.5%) are broadly on a firmer footing, in contrast to the negative sentiment seen across Asia and US equity futures. The region appears to be benefiting from its relatively high exposure to industrials/financials, and less so in the Tech space, which has come under renewed pressure today. Overnight, it was reported that Nvidia CEO Huang had another affair, but this time with an executive at his own company. As it stands, the board is reportedly voting on whether to oust Huang; Bloomberg suggested that long-serving CFO Kress and hardware engineer Buck are the favourites on an interim basis. Industry execs expect short-term supply chain operations to remain stable, but given Huang’s excellent relationship with manufacturers, his removal could result in a slowdown in capacity expansion and/or aggressive investment. With a potential ousting today, Nvidia shares are down by 5.5% in pre-market trade; peers such as SK Hynix (-2%) follow the sentiment lower. However, competitors such as AMD (+4%) and Broadcom (+3.6%) both gain. Back to European sectors; Consumer Products leads, followed by Retail and then Healthcare. Unsurprisingly, Tech holds towards the foot of the pile, joined closely by Basic Resources. As for key movers this morning: Adecco (+14%, Q3 results topped forecasts), Siemens (+4.4%, Q4 revenue grows and raises mid-term rev. outlook), Allianz (+1.5%, reports record Q3 profit), Rolls Royce (+2.3%, announced GBP 1.5bln share buyback), Persimmon (+5%, generally positive trading update and optimism surrounding 2027). US equity futures are trading in the red, with underperformance in the NQ, pressured by losses in Nvidia (see above). Focus ahead will be on the potential Huang removal, and also on a slew of Fed speak, where markets will look to see whether any more policymakers show openness to a larger 50bps hike in December. NVIDIA (NVDA) is reportedly preparing to oust CEO Jensen Huang, according to WSJ. Board is preparing to meet today to determine Jensen Huang's future. US President Trump's administration is aware that NVIDIA's (NVDA) board of directors is preparing to oust Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, very soon, according to CBS reporter Jennifer Jacobs. Some NVIDIA (NVDA) directors favour CFO Kress as interim CEO, according to Semafor. White House said it isn't intervening in NVIDIA (NVDA) board's decision, according to Washington Post. Top Democrats target Trump administration's Nvidia (NVDA)-China records, with Senators Warren and Coons asking for documents to be preserved, which is often the initial step before formal congressional investigations, according to WSJ. Alleged Chinese spy in the NVIDIA (NVDA) scandal Alice Huang is reportedly in China and is living in Beijing with the knowledge of security officials, according to Bloomberg. NVIDIA (NVDA) CEO Huang is said to have had a relationship with an NVIDIA executive, according to NYT. US President Trump on Thursday authorised a crackdown on companies suspected of diverting Nvidia's (NVDA) advanced AI chips to China, reported Axios citing sources. Trump-approved curb on AI chips to China is yet to happen. Fox's Gasparino, on Nvidia (NVDA), posted "The solution, unfortunately, is for shareholders to get screwed more in the short run before someone smart rights the old ship, which might make what we are seeing now a buying opportunity for $NVDA". Citrini's Jukan said that "One thing I’ve been able to confirm is that NVIDIA's (NVDA) Rubin has been delayed again. I’m told motherboard warpage caused the latest delay and that the HBM issue was resolved in October". As a result, volume shipments of Rubin have slipped to 2027, and I’m told NVIDIA has increased its Blackwell orders in the meantime.

FX

• Snapshot: G10s are mixed against the flat USD. The typical havens (CHF & JPY) hold towards the top of the pile, whilst the Antipodeans lag a touch, amidst the somewhat subdued risk tone. European equities are mostly firmer, though APAC stocks were mostly subdued and US equity futures point to a negative open, with sentiment driven lower by reports of a potential ousting of Nvidia CEO Huang.
• DXY briefly topped the 103.00 mark in the morning, but since scaled back towards the bottom end of a 102.82-103.08 range. The print above 103.00 allowed the index to trade back to levels not seen since April 2025. For the USD today there will be two key risk events; firstly, the potential removal of Nvidia CEO Huang, which may act as a USD-negative event, if a tech sell-off is sparked. Perhaps more pertinent will be a slew of Fed speak dotted throughout the day. Traders will be looking out for any indication of the policymakers’ openness to a larger 50bps hike in December, as suggested by the influential Waller. If one were to guess, any indication of a larger move would likely come via Hammack (dissented at the Oct confab), with fellow-hawks Barr and Schmid also a risk.
• USD/JPY sits firmly above the 159.00 mark, holding within a 159.47-159.95 range. Recent strength in the pair came after the hawkish comments made by the Fed’s Waller and the subsequent hotter-than-expected US CPI report. As mentioned in the European Market Wrap yesterday, the recent surge would likely spur some jawboning from Japanese officials, but likely to no avail.
• This in fact did occur; Japan’s Top FX diplomat Mimura mentioned that recent currency moves are too fast, but ultimately failed to move the pair at the time. Given that this latest move is fundamentally driven by widening yield differentials, any attempts to talk up the JPY will likely be ignored by markets. More aggressive signals of imminent intervention, rate checks or physical intervention itself would likely be required by the Japanese side to achieve a downturn in USD/JPY. Aside from FX, BoJ’s Asada (dove) stated that they need to watch downside economic risks and need to be cautious about the pace of rate hikes.
• Japan top FX diplomat Mimura said recent currency moves are too fast.

Central Banks

• BoJ Board Member Asada said consumer spending is not strong enough to drive the economy. Must be mindful of expected impact of past rate hikes on the economy and that financial conditions remain accommodative, while he added that they need to watch downside economy risks from rate hikes.
• France signalled it may support Spain's ECB President candidate de Cos to succeed Lagarde, according to FT.
• RBNZ said its reverse stress tests demonstrate resilience in insurers and improves risk management.
• PBoC injected CNY 384bln in overnight reverse repos with the rate at 1.25%.

Fixed Income

• A modestly bullish start for fixed, in a bit of a rebound from the continued pressure seen on Wednesday and as the downside in the energy space on a potential Vance-Rezaei meeting helps.
• A bit of weakness was seen in the early European morning on the IRGC reporting that two oil-carrying vessels were subject to “explosions” in the Strait of Hormuz, increasing the tally of such incidents from recent sessions. However, this has not changed the narrative with energy still lower, and fixed firmer given that and ongoing AI/Tech concerns around Nvidia, NQ -1.0% at most.
• USTs firmer by a handful of ticks, just off best in 106-00 to 106-09+ confines, just above Wednesday’s peak but essentially a point away from pre-Waller/CPI trade. Today, the docket is packed with Fed speakers who will all be scrutinised for insight around December and whether they also see 50bps as an option post-CPI. Thereafter, on Friday, PPI will inform the debate and firm up PCE expectations.
• Bunds and Gilts broadly in-fitting, bid by about 10-20 ticks and in familiar ranges. Specifics are somewhat light. No real move to the UK’s Q3/September GDP series, as while firm services continue to do the heavy lifting, some priors were revised lower. Overall, it factors somewhat in favour of those who support a back-to-back December hike by the BoE.
• Italy sold EUR 5.25bln vs exp. EUR 5-5.75bln 3.00% 2029, 3.35% 2033 BTP & EUR 1.5bln vs exp. EUR 1-1.5bln 4.10% 2046 BTP Green.
• UK sold GBP 4bln 4.125% 2033 Gilt: b/c 3.52x (prev. 3.4x), average yield 4.993% (prev. 4.761%) & tail 0.2bps (prev. 0.2bps).
• Japan sold JPY 1.9tln 5-year JGBs; b/c 3.67x (prev. 3.56x), average yield 2.186% (prev. 2.379%). Lowest accepted price 100.04 (prev. 100.07). Weighted average price 100.06 (prev. 100.09). Tail in price 0.02 (prev. 0.02).
• Australia sold AUD 100mln in 1.25% 2040 indexed bonds, avg. yield 2.9752%, b/c 3.50.

Commodities

• Energy on the back foot amid a WSJ report that US VP Vance could meet with Iran’s Rezaei. However, energy lifted off lows after the IRGC announced that two oil carrying vessels were subject to “explosions” within the Strait of Hormuz, adding to the tally of such incidents from recent sessions.
• Following that IRGC update, Brent Jan’27 hit a USD 93.94/bbl peak for the session, modestly firmer at that point but still essentially a dollar away from the Wednesday peak. Since, that move has unwound with focus back on the mediation efforts. As such, Brent is now just below USD 92/bbl, lower by around a dollar on the session.
• Dutch TTF bid, as the US envoys’ meeting with Russian President Putin approaches, and the commentary from Russia is not constructive/favourable with respect to Europe. Additionally, the Starshield system Ukraine relies on has seemingly had its speed curbed once again, a particularly notable intervention given the US-Russia meeting today. Further, the region’s weather models have turned colder again and the mild turn some showed on Wednesday has now largely been removed.
• Dutch TTF above EUR 90/MWh at best, firmer by over three Euros on the day.
• Spot gold hit by the ongoing USD strength and fixed income serving as the ‘haven’ amid the ongoing Nvidia/NQ pressure. XAU failed to hold the USD 4k/oz mark early on, and has since been gradually falling with the European risk tone constructive and while there remains clear US pressure, it is concentrated and not to the benefit of the precious metal.
• Base peers in the red, hit by the APAC pressure as the Nvidia board meeting began, with the potential loss of Huang a blow to the entire AI ecosystem. 3M LME Copper is off by under a percent, holding just below USD 13.7k.
• ASEAN is to begin a joint stockpile of petroleum products, according to Nikkei.
• Exxon (XOM) is assessing seven areas in Venezuela for potential energy projects, according to Reuters.

Trade/Tariffs

• US Senator Cotton reportedly urges Commerce Secretary Lutnick to add Chinese memory maker CXMT (688825 CH) to the ban list, CNBC reported.
• Some Democrats are reportedly pushing to keep the US House’s China committee, Semafor reported.
• China's Commerce Minister exchanged views on electric vehicles with the UK Trade Minister.
• Chinese AI firms are rushing to secure more NVIDIA (NVDA)-powered computing capacity at overseas data centres and are concerned the NVIDIA CEO spy scandal may prompt Washington to restrict remote use of advanced chips, according to sources.
• EU and UK are poised to delay a 10% tariff on electric cars amid concerns it would make them more vulnerable against Chinese competition, according to FT.
• US Secretary of State Rubio and China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi discussed US President Trump's upcoming trip to China.

Geopolitics: Iran

• IRGC said there were explosions affecting two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz; "Both vessels were super tankers carrying in total more than 4 million barrels of oil, which are now burning in the fire of trust in the plundering and aggressive US Army."
• Ambrey said a merchant vessel was struck by an unknown projectile 14 NM off UAE's Ras Al Khaimah on Wednesday.
• Iran's Press TV states that Iran and Oman have reached an agreement on maritime traffic through the Strait, while Iran said 7 conditions must be met for talks and Hormuz reopening, according to Press TV.
• Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesman Baghaei said the US falsely portrays itself as a victim of Iranian terrorism, while he accused the US of war crimes and state terrorism, according to ISNA.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Russian Official Ryabkov urges avoiding uncontrolled escalation after negotiations.
• Russian President Putin is reportedly to speak with the US envoys at around 09:00GMT.
• Romania's President offered to pay the US to keep its troops stationed in the country amid security concerns due to Russian drone incursions, according to FT.
• Russian forces hit energy facilities and a military storage site in the Kyiv region, while it also struck a Ukrainian cargo vessel, according to Russia's Defence Ministry.
• South Korea's Presidential Office said South Korea anticipates progress on Ukraine issues after productive talks in Paris, while it added that the possibility of US-North Korea contact around APEC appears low. South Korea's President Lee will visit Philippines and China between November 16th-19th and attend the APEC Summit in Shenzhen on November 18th-19th.
• US State Department said Secretary of State Rubio and China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi agreed on the importance of leader-level conversations to advance goals such as peace and denuclearisation, including in any trilateral summit with Russia.

Geopolitics: Other

• Saudi-led coalition said that a drone was intercepted and destroyed in the Riyadh region.
• Chinese President Xi said resolving the Taiwan issue and achieving the complete reunification of the motherland is an unwavering historical mission of the Chinese Communist Party. We will leave no room for Taiwan independence separatist activities in any form. We will fully consider the realities in Taiwan and take into account the interests and sentiments of Taiwan compatriots.
• Israeli Defence Minister Katz said they would not wait for permission to take action against Iran, Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, or the West Bank; decision making is up to PM Netanyahu's cabinet.
• Israeli military said it struck a senior Hamas figure and other militants at Nasser Hospital in Gaza's Khan Yunis.
• Israeli bombing targets Nasser Medical Complex west of Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip, according to Al Jazeera.
• Saudi Civil Defence said Houthi missiles were intercepted and debris fell in Mecca region.

Crypto

• Bitcoin is a little lower this morning and trades around USD 74k; Ethereum also off by around a percent, and trades just above USD 2k.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30am: Nov. 7 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 194k, prior 189k
• 8:30am: Oct. 31 Continuing Claims, est. 1710k, prior 1718k
• 10:00am: Oct. Existing Home Sales, est. 3.85m, prior 3.99m
• 10:00am: Oct. Existing Home Sales MoM, est. -3.5%, prior 1.5%
• 11:30am: US to sell $110 billion of 8-week bills and $115 billion of 4-week bills
• 12:00pm: EIA weekly oil inventories (delayed by holiday)
• 1:00pm: US to sell $25 billion of 30-year bonds and $75 billion of 17-week bills
• 2:00pm: Oct. Federal Budget Balance, est. -$317.5b, prior -$284.3b

Central Bank Speakers

• 9:00am: Fed's Hammack Speaks in Moderated Conversation
• 10:00am: Fed's Barr Delivers Virtual Address on AI and Inequality
• 11:15am: Fed's Goolsbee Speaks in Moderated Q&A at Yahoo! Finance
• 1:10pm: Fed's Daly Delivers Keynote Remarks at Stanford
• 1:30pm: Fed's Schmid Speaks on Fed and the Economic Outlook
• 6:30pm: Fed's Williams Participates in Panel Discussion

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

My favourite guilty pleasure returned last night, namely the TV show "Rivals". If you think real life has in recent times bordered on crazy, then feel free to watch this as you'll end up feeling a bit better about the sanity of the current world and get some great 1980s music and some garish clothes thrown in for free. The crazy whipsawing post midterms continued yesterday as after the post-CPI selloff on Tuesday, markets bounced back again over the last 24 hours, as the positive momentum from CoreWeave’s (+24.71%) earnings drove a sharp rally in tech stocks. So the Philly semiconductor index (+5.66%) helped drive the S&P 500 (+1.31%) back above its levels before the midterm elections. Who said markets didn't always go up after midterms! And over in Europe, both the STOXX 600 (+0.72%) and the DAX (+1.20%) moved up to fresh records. However, the current volatility in the tech trade continues this morning as the WSJ reported after the US closing bell that the Nvidia board are planning to oust CEO Jensen Huang after the last few days of stories around him have surfaced. Their stock fell -8.6% in after-hours trading, which has pushed Nasdaq (-1.09%) and S&P (-0.45%) lower. So a big deal for one of the largest companies in the world.

This is also impacting Asian equity markets with the Kospi (-1.04%), Hang Seng (-0.86%) and Nikkei (-0.78%) all notably lower as I type this morning. The Shanghai Comp is -0.22%. European futures have maintained their gains overnight though with DAX futures +0.66% as I type, which hints at some rotation after the latest Nvidia story.

Before the overnight news the AI trade was firmly back in action yesterday after CoreWeave’s earnings on Tuesday night. Its share price (+24.71%) saw its biggest daily jump since June 2025, a few months after its IPO, although it remains around -45% below August levels. CoreWeave has often been viewed as a bellwether of the AI trade, given the company’s significantly heavy debt burden and capital-intensive model of building data centres and leasing them out to major AI customers and hyperscalers.

Those upbeat earnings from CoreWeave were a boon for tech and chip stocks, with the Philly Semiconductor Stock Exchange up +5.66%, while the Nasdaq Composite (+1.6%) also climbed. So with tech stocks rallying, that lifted the S&P 500 (+1.31%) above its levels before the midterm election results. European equities followed a similar pattern, with gains led by the DAX (+1.20%), while the FTSE 100 (+0.78%), STOXX 600 (+0.72%) and CAC 40 (+0.66%) also advanced. In fact, the Stoxx 600 reached a record high for the first time since August.

Whilst US Treasury markets were closed yesterday, the hawkish implications from the CPI print continued to be felt in futures pricing yesterday. Indeed, Fed funds futures continued to shift in a hawkish direction, with pricing for the December meeting edging up to 28.5bps. And further out the curve, expectations for the September 2027 meeting surged another +7bps to 82bps, although that’s edged back down to 77bps overnight. The prospect of a more hawkish Fed helped push the dollar index (+0.66%) to its highest level since April 2025. Conversely, that also saw the euro (-0.66%) reach an 18-month low against the dollar, closing at around $1.109.

Given the US holiday, there wasn’t any fresh data or Fed commentary, so all eyes are now on the latest round of speakers today, along with tomorrow’s PPI print.

Turning to the Middle East, oil prices were back up again yesterday, albeit with no obvious headline driving the moves. So after two days of consecutive declines, Brent crude rose +1.2% after being higher earlier in the session. And in turn, we saw the impact on inflation pricing, with 1yr Euro inflation swaps (+9.3bps) rising to +3.02%. So that led investors to price an increasingly hawkish ECB path as well, with the number of hikes priced in by the ECB’s July 2027 meeting up another +3bps to +63.5bps yesterday. So that meant 2yr German yields (+1.7bps) rose to 3.11%. However, there was also a fresh flattening in the yield curve, with the 10yr bund yield (-0.2bps) falling to 3.31%, alongside declines for yields on 10yr OATs (-2.1bps) and BTPs (-3.8bps). However, overnight Brent has fallen around a percent taking it back to roughly where it was this time yesterday. So a big round trip. That’s helped 10yr US yields reopen half a basis point lower this morning after the holiday.

Elsewhere, focus remains on Russia-Ukraine peace efforts after US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, with officials citing some progress in talks despite territorial issues remaining a key sticking point. The sides agreed to a sizable prisoner exchange, while the US delegation is set to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to discuss potential next steps, keeping hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough alive.

Early morning data showed Japan's PPI rose a stronger-than-expected +7.1% y/y in October, up from +6.8% in September and above consensus expectations of +6.5%. The hope would be that this now declines after recent oil price falls, assuming they hold.

To the day ahead now, data releases include the UK’s Q3 GDP. In the US, we’ll also get the October existing home sales and weekly initial jobless claims. A host of central bank speakers will be on the docket as well today, including the Fed’s Hammack, Barr, Goolsbee, Daly and Williams, and the ECB’s Lagarde, Vujcic and Nagel. Notable earnings include Applied Materials and Cisco. Finally, the US will also be holding a $25bn auction for its 30yr bonds.

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity,

Joe Biden has finally said what millions of Americans watched unfold in real time. In a new interview with People magazine promoting his forthcoming memoir, the former president stated that if he had known he was "feeling lousy because I had cancer," he "would've not gone forward" with the 2024 reelection bid.

He added plainly: "I don't think an 80-year-old man with cancer should be running."

The admission arrives years after Biden's own party, his closest aides, and large segments of the media insisted the opposite. They told voters he remained sharp, focused, and fully capable of another four years.

Joe Biden: If I had known that I was feeling lousy because I had cancer, I would have resigned. I would not have gone forward because I don't think an 80-year-old man with cancer should be running. But that wasn't the case. It was a circumstance where I thought that I had the capacity, I think I did, to bring a wider array of support for the United States and our positions from around the world. I had very good relationships with all the major leaders in the world. And so I believe that, on an objective basis, I was the best-equipped person to do the job.

— Clash Report (@clashreport) November 11, 2026

The June 2024 debate with Donald Trump made the contradiction impossible to ignore for anyone still willing to look.

Biden, diagnosed with metastatic prostate cancer months after leaving office in 2025, maintains he did not know about the illness while in the White House. He continues to insist the debate itself "wasn't consequential" because he expected another one, and that "on an objective basis, I was the best-equipped person to do the job."

Those claims sit alongside a record of public assurances that his age and condition were no obstacle.

Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas told NBC's Meet the Press in early 2024 that "the most difficult part about a meeting with President Biden is preparing for it because he is sharp, intensely probing and detail-oriented and focused."

Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told CNN's Anderson Cooper around the same period that anyone betting against Biden because of his age did so "at their peril, because he's very sharp."

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer declared that Biden's "mental acuity is great, it's fine, it's as good as it's been over the years," dismissing contrary evidence as "right-wing propaganda."

Democratic officials and cable hosts repeatedly used nearly identical language - sharp as a tack, on the ball, fully in command - while videos of Biden appearing confused, trailing off mid-sentence, or relying on aides circulated widely.

Special Counsel Robert Hur's February 2024 report described the president as a "sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory," a characterization the White House and its allies attacked rather than engaged. Wall Street Journal reporting on closed-door signs of decline drew similar pushback from party leaders who later pressed Biden to exit the race.

Books published after the election, including Jake Tapper and Alex Thompson's Original Sin, documented how Biden's inner circle limited access, curated briefings, and projected an image of vigor that did not match what many colleagues observed in private.

One senior aide quoted in related reporting called the decision to run again a "disservice" to the country and the party. Democratic strategist David Plouffe, brought in to help Kamala Harris after Biden withdrew, is reported to have said Biden "totally f-ed us" by remaining in the race so long.

Biden stepped aside in July 2024 after the debate collapse and mounting internal pressure, endorsing Harris. She lost to Trump. Biden has since told associates he believes he could have beaten Trump, a view at odds with both public polling at the time and the private assessments many Democrats later shared.

The former president's latest comments do not resolve the larger question of what was known inside the White House and what was deliberately minimized for voters. They do make the earlier public assurances harder to defend.

When the candidate himself now says an 80-year-old with cancer should not have been running, the years of coordinated insistence that he was sharp, probing, and ready for another term read as the gaslighting critics described at the time.

Americans were told repeatedly that concerns about Biden's capacity were partisan inventions or ageism. The debate, the subsequent reporting, and now Biden's own words show those concerns tracked observable reality.

Nvidia sits at the center of the whole circular AI financing scheme. The leadership crisis at the chip giant is deepening as successive reports about CEO Jensen Huang's extramarital affairs continued overnight.

Huang recently acknowledged an extramarital affair with a woman reportedly suspected by US officials of working for Chinese intelligence. A separate report overnight alleged a romantic relationship with Nvidia executive Kimberly Powell.

Shares plunged about 7.5% in premarket trading as the Nvidia board weighs Huang's fate.

The Huang saga is moving quickly, and Beijing is getting angry.

China accused Washington earlier today of using spy allegations against Huang as a pretext to tighten restrictions on Chinese access to advanced AI chips. 

Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning urged US officials to stop fabricating "spy" narratives to justify a technological "blockade." 

Beijing has rejected those allegations as "groundless speculation" and an attempt to smear China.

The spy allegations center on Alice Huang, a former executive at Singapore-based Megaspeed whom US officials reportedly suspect of working as a spy for Beijing.

Meanwhile, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has been caught in the crossfire over his department's reluctance to designate Nvidia customer Megaspeed as a potential national security threat, CNN reported.

The report also highlights divisions within the Trump administration over Chinese access to advanced Nvidia chips. US officials have suspected Megaspeed of circumventing export restrictions through shell companies to funnel advanced US chips into China.

CEO Huang's fate could be decided as early as today by Nvidia's 10 board members. Any leadership change could spark concern about the premier maker of AI chips, amid broader concerns that a Democratic sweep could usher in a nationwide data center moratorium. Those fears, alongside ongoing cracks in the debt-fueled financing scheme behind chip stacks, have sent neoclouds and hyperscalers on a roller-coaster ride.

Who would replace him?

Notably, all of this Nvidia drama is happening just about a week before President Trump meets Chinese President Xi Jinping at an APEC leaders' summit in China.

On Wall Street, Yorkville Ives technology analyst Dan Ives warned, "The reality is that the old Jensen is now gone in the eyes of the public, customers, and the technology world."

Ives outlined several uncertainties: who would replace Huang, what an interim strategy would look like, whether the board would change, how Nvidia would navigate government investigations into the alleged Chinese spy issue, and the future of GPU shipments to China through Singapore.

He said, "The company and its leading edge GPU technology will go on, and it does not change the entrenched position Nvidia has in the AI Revolution chip arms race," adding, "Jensen is not replaceable by another CEO or group of interim executives, but Nvidia likely now has to move on without Jensen at the helm, which seemed like a Twilight Zone episode narrative before Sunday afternoon when the news broke."

Overnight, Elon Musk responded to our X post, "Elon please hire Jensen."

Musk responded, "That would be an honor."

Could this suggest Huang could run Musk's Terafab?