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There is a particular cruelty in the timing. When the Kospi began its final, cratering descent in late July, President Lee Jae Myung was roughly 11,000 miles away, midway through an 11-day diplomatic tour of South America, watching from hotel suites as the index he had made the totem of his presidency collapsed. His finance minister apologized to lawmakers. The heads of both financial regulators cancelled their holidays as retail investors laid funeral wreaths at the gates of the National Assembly in Yeouido.

From its record close of 9,114.55 on June 22, the benchmark fell into the 5,600s by July 30 - a peak-to-trough drawdown of roughly 39 percent on a closing basis, erasing more than $2 trillion in market value in under six weeks. Trading was halted four times during the month, a record run of circuit-breaker suspensions for a tool that was barely used before this year.

Then, on Friday, after an emergency late-night meeting of the country's top financial authorities produced a package of curbs on leveraged products, the index ripped 17.91 percent higher to close at 6,595.45 - the largest single-day gain in its history. SK Hynix hit its 30 percent daily limit. Samsung gained 27 percent. On Monday it gave back 5.12 percent, closing at 6,257.45.

Some retail traders have vowed not to step back in.

Samsung fell 8.76 percent, SK Hynix 8.79 percent. Foreign and institutional investors sold a net 2.84 trillion won and 1.95 trillion won of shares respectively. Retail investors bought a net 4.65 trillion won - stepping in front of the same train, four days after the government had promised to protect them from it.

Also on Monday, Realmeter published a weekly tracker putting Lee's approval at 45.9 percent, the lowest of his presidency, with disapproval at 50.5 percent - crossing the majority threshold for the first time. The fieldwork matters here: 2,508 respondents surveyed from July 27 to 31, with a margin of error of two points. The poll closed on the day of the record rally and captured none of Monday's reversal. Realmeter attributed the third consecutive weekly decline to the market rout and to a parallel controversy over whether a constitutional amendment might let a sitting president seek reelection.

The same pollster had Lee at 59.7 percent in May, against 35.7 percent disapproving. A net positive margin of twenty-four points has become a net negative of nearly five - a swing of some twenty-eight points in under three months. Realmeter runs lower than its peers; Gallup had him at 51 percent in late June, the National Barometer Survey at 53 percent on July 30. But all three recorded lows for his presidency, and all three were falling.

The problem of ownership

Presidents survive bad markets all the time, but this debacle is Lee's to own - after running in 2025 on a campaign drive the Kospi past 5,000 - an unusual promise for a head of state, and one he blew past in January. He is a former day trader, a fact his opponents recite with relish. He urged Koreans to move their savings out of Seoul property and into equities. In June, with the index sagging below 8,000, he told reporters the retreat was temporary and Korean shares remained undervalued. His policy chief, Kim Yong-beom, predicted Korea would become a top-three equity market by capitalization within three years.

And then there are the ETFs.

The sixteen single-stock leveraged and inverse funds tracking Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix launched on May 27, roughly a week before the June local elections - instruments that use derivatives and debt to double a stock's daily move, sold to professionals almost everywhere else in the world. Retail investors poured about 78 trillion won ($54.2 billion) into Kospi shares across May and June. As we noted, three SK Hynix vehicles alone held over $23 billion at the peak - more than 2.5 times average daily turnover in the underlying shares. Assets across the complex went from under $10 billion at the start of 2026 to more than $50 billion in June, then down to roughly $16 billion by late July.

The combined weight of the two chipmakers in the Kospi rose from 51.06 percent on May 26, the day before listing, to 55.17 percent by July 10. Their share of total market trading value went from roughly 30 percent to 44 percent. A market that was already a two-stock bet became a two-stock bet with a gamma engine bolted on.

The opposition's charge is not that Lee failed to prevent a crash. It is that his office built the machine that produced one. "It was pushed through at an extraordinary pace," said Park Soo-young, a People Power Party member of the National Assembly's Strategy and Finance Committee, arguing that such speed was inconceivable without direction from the presidential office. The PPP is now demanding Kim Yong-beom's dismissal and a full parliamentary investigation. Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol, pressed by lawmakers on whether he would resign, said it would be irresponsible to speculate while markets were still unstable.

That is the language of a government buying time with subordinates. It usually works. It works less well when the paper trail leads upward.

The arithmetic says he is safe

South Korean impeachment requires 200 votes in a 300-seat National Assembly, followed by Constitutional Court confirmation. Lee's Democratic Party holds 179 seats. Removing him would require his own party to supply twenty-one executioners - and the DP has no incentive to hand the presidency back to a PPP that lost the June local elections nationwide, capturing only Seoul's mayoralty as consolation. There is no national election until April 2028. Lee's term runs to 2030. He is fourteen months in.

The market case for calm is similarly strong. Even at Monday's close the Kospi sits at roughly double its 52-week low, and Bloomberg had it up more than 50 percent on the year as of Friday's close, the best performance among the world's biggest economies. The fundamentals underneath are not the problem: SK Hynix posted record second-quarter revenue of 79.3 trillion won, up 257 percent year on year, at a 76 percent operating margin. Samsung's preliminary operating profit for the period rose nineteenfold to about 89.4 trillion won. Korean semiconductor exports in June came in at $44.8 billion, up 199.5 percent. Morgan Stanley upgraded Korea to overweight on the back of the leverage unwind. Lale Akoner of eToro, who called the episode a textbook collision of a crowded trade and leverage, was careful to add that it should not be read as a collapse of the AI investment case.

Both chipmakers fell hard anyway, on the days they reported those numbers. That is the tell: this is a positioning event, not an earnings event. Positioning events resolve.

On the numbers, Lee is in no danger whatsoever.

THAT SAID...

South Korea has impeached two presidents in the last decade. Park Geun-hye in 2016. Yoon Suk Yeol in December 2024, which is the only reason Lee holds the office at all. Whatever the threshold once meant as a norm, it now means considerably less. What changed in both cases was not the seat count on day one - it was ruling-party lawmakers deciding the president had become a heavier liability than the opposition.

Three things could shift that calculation.

The first is the scale of household damage, which is no longer hypothetical. By July 13, more than 1.2 million leveraged retail accounts had triggered margin calls, with an estimated 320,000 to 360,000 fully liquidated by brokers - some left owing money. Korea Investment & Securities reported that nearly half of its 880,000 clients holding Samsung were underwater, and nearly 70 percent of its 408,000 SK Hynix investors. The KODEX SK Hynix leveraged product is down more than 80 percent from its June peak. This is not a story about speculators. In a country of 52 million, it is a story about a constituency.

The second is the Democratic Party's own convention - though here the case has to be made against the present data rather than with it. In a companion Realmeter survey, DP support rose 3.8 points last week to 45.1 percent, while the PPP fell 2.9 points to 37.7 percent. The party is gaining as its president falls, and that is precisely the configuration under which lawmakers stay loyal. What changes it is the calendar. Song Young-gil, competing for the leadership, has already said the presidential office's policy line needs thorough re-examination. Whoever wins runs the party into the 2028 general election - the contest that determines whether the DP ever reaches the two-thirds majority it has coveted. A party polling ahead of the opposition has no reason to move against its own president. A party leader who concludes that Lee's name on the ballot costs seats is the beginning of a lame-duck presidency, and Korean presidents are traditionally devoured by their own side, not by the opposition.

The third is the constitutional amendment, and this is where Lee has already, almost certainly, lost something irretrievable. Placing a two-term, four-year presidency at the top of a 123-item agenda was the signature legacy project. Article 128(2) bars the sitting president from benefiting, so this was never about his own reelection; it was about being the president who rewrote the 1987 constitution. Amendment requires 200 votes and a national referendum, meaning PPP cooperation. Speaker Cho Jeong-sik has floated 2027 as the window - and his suggestion that voters should decide whether an incumbent may seek another term is, on Realmeter's own reading, one of the two forces currently dragging Lee's numbers down. The legacy project has become a liability before it has become a bill. A president polling below 50 percent, with two trillion dollars of household wealth destroyed on his ledger and a parliamentary investigation pending, has no leverage to extract twenty-one opposition votes for anything.

What losing the job actually looks like

The price of artificial intelligence just printed a new low. DeepSeek's V4-Flash, officially released Friday, costs roughly three cents to run through a standard battery of benchmark tests, according to San Francisco research firm Artificial Analysis. Moonshot AI's Kimi K3 costs 86 cents; OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol, $1.86; and Anthropic's Claude Fable 5, the industry's top-scoring model, $3.15. In realized terms, the Chinese model is more than 100 times cheaper to run than the American flagship, according to Reuters.

V4-Flash is the cheapest well-known model in the world, and by a wide margin. The figure is even more striking because of a detail buried in the firm's write-up: V4-Flash is unusually verbose. It consumes tokens heavily and still lands at three cents. The per-token price is doing all the work.

The same firm supplies the caveat. V4-Flash scores 50 out of 100 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, a composite of nine benchmarks spanning coding, reasoning, and workplace tasks. That ties Google's Gemini 3.6 Flash and puts it one point behind Meta's Muse Spark 1.1 and Zhipu's GLM-5.2. Moonshot's Kimi K3 scores 57, while Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5, along with OpenAI's GPT-5.6, score at least nine points higher.

That said - V4-Flash kicks massive ass at routine tasks, but the frontier models still own the heavy lifting. In difficult, multi-step agentic work, small reliability gaps at each step compound into enormous end-to-end differences. Essentially that's the current state of play for frontier pricing. But for the routine volume that makes up most production traffic - summarization, boilerplate code, and back-office automation - V4-Flash is where it's at.

Chinese Knife Fight

V4-Flash's 3-cent print is the fourth shot in an 18-day barrage: China's AI labs are cutting each other for domestic share, and the fallout is repricing the model market everywhere else. On July 16, Moonshot shipped Kimi K3, a 2.8-trillion-parameter model that promptly took the number-one slot on Arena's Frontend Code leaderboard from Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol. On July 19, Alibaba rushed a preview of Qwen3.8-Max onto the stage at the World AI Conference in Shanghai. There was no pricing, no model card, and its claim of ranking "second only to Fable 5" rested on Alibaba's internal evaluations.

On July 27, Moonshot answered by open-sourcing K3's full weights, the largest open-weight release in history. DeepSeek shipped V4-Flash on July 31. Then on August 3 - Monday, the same morning the Reuters story ran - Alibaba took Qwen3.8-Max to general availability: 2.4 trillion total parameters, 95 billion active parameters, a one-million-token context window, and flat pricing of $2 per million input tokens and $6 per million output tokens, with no long-context surcharge.

Qwen's release promptly landed at No. 4 on the Frontend Code Arena with 1,668 points - one point behind Claude Opus 5 at high effort, eight behind Kimi K3, and ahead of both Fable 5 at 1,630 and GPT-5.6 Sol at 1,620. Of the five models Arena identifies on the cost-performance Pareto frontier, four are Chinese: Kimi K3, Qwen3.8-Max, GLM-5.2, and V4-Flash. The lone American entry, Opus 5, occupies the expensive tip, defended by 37 Elo points.

Qwen3.8-Max by @Alibaba_Qwen has reshaped the cost-performance Pareto frontier in Frontend Code Arena, with pricing of $2 per input MToken and $6 per output MToken.

Top models on the Pareto frontier:
- Claude-Opus-5
- Kimi-K3
- Qwen3.8-Max
- GLM-5.2
- DeepSeek-V4-Flash

Congrats… https://t.co/3S4tW1KmlI pic.twitter.com/CiWU7Hh4BD

— Arena.ai (@arena) August 3, 2026

Alibaba's own benchmark table is more candid. Qwen3.8-Max edges Fable 5 and Opus 4.8 on Terminal-Bench, 86.6 to 84.6, while trailing badly on hard repository engineering: it scores 67.7 on SWE-bench Pro against Fable 5's 80.0. The preference-judged coding moat is gone. The deep-engineering moat remains intact - for now.

All of this raises a more basic question: who is paying for three-cent inference?

Until this spring, DeepSeek had never taken outside money. Founder Liang Wenfeng bankrolled the company through his quant fund, High-Flyer. In late May, DeepSeek closed its first external round - more than 50 billion yuan, or roughly $7.4 billion, at a valuation above $50 billion - as first reported by The Information.

The round's structure is unusual. Commercial investors, reportedly led by Tencent and CATL, bought into a limited partnership controlled by Liang, with no voting rights and a five-year lockup. Exactly one party received direct equity and a vote: China's state-backed National AI Industry Investment Fund. Within weeks, DeepSeek was in talks for a follow-on round at roughly $71 billion, with proceeds earmarked for data centers and chips.

Add the 75% API discount the company made permanent earlier this year, and the arrangement begins to resemble industrial policy conducted through an API: state-privileged capital underwriting below-cost tokens to capture global share. It is working: in June, DeepSeek accounted for nearly 23% of the tens of trillions of tokens flowing through Vercel's enterprise AI gateway, compared with Anthropic's 32%.

Meanwhile...

As we (and now Wall Street) have been noting, the Token Expenditure Index - a usage-weighted average of what the market pays per million tokens, blended across frontier APIs and open-weight platforms - peaked above 2.0 in May after nearly doubling from its December launch, and is now slip sliding lower. 

Strategist Andreas Steno Larsen called it the one everyone should be watching, warning that sustained weakness in token pricing would end the memory, hardware, and data-center trades for this cycle. The index last printed 1.3394, roughly a third below its May high. Bloomberg flagged the rollover in early July as evidence that AI vendors were losing pricing power with increasingly cost-sensitive customers; Silicon Data's own commentary interpreted it as usage drifting back toward open-weight models.

Also relevant - the pushback to data centers amid a capex boom running north of $700 billion. As we reported last month, from the nationwide July 18 protests organized by Tea Party veteran Amy Kremer's Humans First to the widening fracture inside the Republican coalition over land, water, and power - domestic politics has entered the chat, something Beijing doesn't have to deal with - so now they've got a three-cent benchmark financed on terms no Western lab can match. Through open-weight releases, it is also portable onto American silicon, where US inference providers will happily serve Chinese models at commodity margins. Export controls cannot contain a set of weights on the torrent.

The model to watch is V4-Pro, the heavier system DeepSeek has confirmed without naming a release date. Flash at three cents pressures the budget tiers at OpenAI and Google. If Pro lands anywhere near frontier scores at DeepSeek prices, the last 37 Elo points - and the frontier premium that OpenAI and Anthropic both charge to underwrite the buildout - will be directly in play.

In a development that will stun absolutely no one, the California Democratic Party's roughly 380-member executive board gathered at a waterside Sheraton in San Diego this weekend and voted to endorse Proposition 40 - a "one-time" 5% levy on the net worth of the state's roughly 200 billionaires - clearing the 60% supermajority required for the party's official blessing, three months before voters render judgment on November 3.

If it passes - California residents on January 1, 2026 whose net worth is $1 billion or more on December 31, 2026, will owe Sacramento a nickel on every dollar. Directly held real estate is largely excluded - which means the drafters carved out the one asset class that cannot board a Gulfstream. The measure originated with a major healthcare union, the Service Employees International Union United Healthcare Workers West (SEIU-UHW), which claims it would raise $100 billion to offset what it calls deep healthcare funding cuts under the Trump administration. Progressive lawmakers, including Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Ro Khanna, have cheered it on. SEIU says it will raise about $100 billion, mostly to backfill federal healthcare cuts, with some crumbs earmarked for education and food assistance.

The arithmetic: $100 billion at a 5% rate assumes roughly $2 trillion in billionaire net worth sitting obediently in Atherton and Bel Air through year-end, marked to market and liquid enough to cut nine- and ten-figure checks to the Franchise Tax Board.

“I strongly support the grassroots effort in California to impose a 5% wealth tax on 200 billionaires worth $2 trillion,” Sanders said of the tax. “This is a model that should be emulated around the country, which is why I will soon be introducing a national wealth tax on billionaires.”

Yes: We need a wealth tax on billionaires. pic.twitter.com/2OUwSos5De

— Bernie Sanders (@BernieSanders) December 30, 2025

The weekend itself was democracy at its most catered. The union threw a hospitality suite and handed out hats and T-shirts celebrating the confiscation of other people's balance sheets, while the "No on Prop 40" campaign - whose ranks include the California Medical Association (yes, the doctors oppose the measure written to fund them, calling a one-shot levy a flawed answer to a recurring hole), though its real bankroll is one Google co-founder, of whom more below - reportedly picked up around $7,000 in hotel rooms and travel for select board members via a hired consulting shop. Both sides whipped votes like the leveraged proxy fight it effectively was.

Afterward, the union's president declared that the endorsement settles the question of Democratic unity on the measure. Sure - minus the sitting Democratic governor, the party's own candidate to replace him, the California Teachers Association, and the state's firefighters. When even the teachers' union calls a tax too much, that tells you something.

Gavin Newsom - a man who never met a revenue stream he didn't like until it threatened his 2028 ambitions - has suddenly discovered the Laffer curve, warning that the state's largest taxpayers might simply leave.

After the measure qualified in June, he and his allies leaned on the union to pull it. The union's counteroffers tell you everything about the shelf life of "one-time": days before the June 25 withdrawal deadline, it publicly offered to swap the 5% levy for a 2% version Newsom would push through the Legislature - he passed - and, per the LA Times, union chief Dave Regan separately offered in private negotiations to pull the measure outright in exchange for help securing union contracts at several medical facilities - a demand he denies making. The temporary tax was, from birth, a down payment. Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders and Ro Khanna cheer from the sidelines - neither of whom, we note, will be writing a check. Newsom, for his part, now stumps for a federal wealth tax - one billionaires can't dodge by moving - which concedes the entire case against this one.

In May, one of the co-authors of California’s controversial tax appeared to suggest that the levy could extend beyond a single imposition. Marxist economics professor Emmanuel Saez, who hails from France, made the comment during a heated debate against economist Arthur Laffer at the University of California, Berkeley

“I don’t think it’s going to be a one-time tax. Because you can’t surprise billionaires more than once,” Saez said. "Even then, maybe some of them were expecting something like this. So, it’s going to be a debate about this time, you know, a permanent wealth tax at a low rate that’s going to last for a number of years.”

How These Taxes Usually End

Do these people ever learn? Recall New Jersey circa 2016, when a single hedge fund manager's change of address to Florida had Trenton's budget officials publicly sweating over the state's revenue forecast - one guy, one moving truck, one fiscal panic. Recall Illinois' richest resident, Ken Griffin, packing his entire firm off from Chicago to Miami in 2022, taking what was reportedly the state's largest individual tax bill with him. Recall the Pacific Northwest's most famous ex-resident developing a sudden fondness for South Florida in 2023, mere months after Washington's shiny new capital gains tax survived its court challenge - and then unloading billions in stock from the comfort of a state that taxes none of it. Recall the world's richest man decamping California for Texas in 2020, with his companies trailing behind like ducklings.

And it's not just an American genre. Norway hiked its wealth tax in 2022 and promptly watched a procession of its wealthiest citizens establish residency in Switzerland. France ran the grand experiment for decades, bleeding tens of thousands of millionaires across its borders, until Macron finally euthanized the ISF - preserving, in the ultimate irony, a wealth tax on real estate alone, the one thing that couldn't flee. Prop 40's drafters studied that lesson and inverted it: exempt the immovable, tax the mobile.

California, of course, has been talking itself into this outcome for years - the 2023 wealth-tax bill with its infamous reach-back provisions for former residents died in committee, but the memo was received loud and clear in Austin, Miami, and Incline Village. The state lost a congressional seat after the 2020 census for the first time in its history, net domestic outmigration has been running for years, and the top 1% already supply north of 40% of state income tax collections. The geese aren't just laying the golden eggs; they're carrying the farm.

About that Incline Village entry: Sergey Brin decamped to the Nevada side of Lake Tahoe last year - safely ahead of the January 1 snapshot - and has since pumped roughly $82 million into the No side's war chest, a committee called Building a Better California that has raised north of $118 million from fewer than a dozen donors, with Peter Thiel dropping a separate $3 million on the California Business Roundtable, the lobby anchoring the institutional opposition. Nor did Brin leave alone: at least six billionaires got out before the residency date locked, clipping an estimated $27 billion off the projected haul before a single ballot was printed. Every anecdote in the genre now has a live, hometown edition - the man whose fortune was minted in Mountain View is bankrolling the fight against a California tax he has already arranged not to owe.

The trap already snapped shut: because residency was fixed on January 1, 2026, leaving now won't dodge this levy if it passes - that trap closed eight months ago. What leaving now does is guarantee you're not around for the sequel. So expect a December blizzard of trust restructurings, charitable pledges, and valuation disputes over illiquid private stakes, followed by a constitutional bar brawl that keeps white-shoe litigators billing well into the 2030s. Collecting 5% of a private company position from a founder newly domiciled in Texas will be a spectacle.

Polling shows a strong majority of California Democrats on board and a narrower majority of the overall electorate - which is to say, this thing can absolutely pass. The No campaign calls the measure "bad for our budget, bad for our economy and bad for our future."