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Stocks sold off and gold hit a new record as trade tensions between the US and Europe erupted over Trump’s push to take control of Greenland (which we learn today is due to Norway's snub of Trump for the Nobel peace prize). While US cash markets are closed for the MLK holiday, S&P futures dropped 1.1% and Nasdaq futures tumbled 1.4%, while Europe's Stoxx 600 was on track for its worst day in two months led by luxury stocks and German automakers as BMW dropped 3%. The dollar retreated 0.2%, while the Swiss franc outperformed. Gold topped $4,670 an ounce. US markets are shut today for a public holiday.

In corporate news Nvidia supplier Micron Technology said an ongoing memory chip shortage has accelerated over the past quarter and reiterated that the crunch will last beyond this year due to a surge in demand for high-end semiconductors required for AI infrastructure.

• Apple Inc. retook the top spot in China after iPhone shipments jumped 28% during the holiday quarter despite a worsening shortage of vital memory chips, according to Counterpoint Research.
• Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk said the electric carmaker will resume work on the Dojo3 project after making progress on the design of its AI5 chip.
• Bayer AG’s shares surged after the US Supreme Court said it would hear the company’s appeal in a Roundup case that could undercut thousands of lawsuits tied to the weedkiller.

Stocks around the world were knocked lower by Trump’s threat to impose levies on countries opposing his bid to assert authority over Greenland, which risks reigniting the tariff-fueled volatility that rattled markets in the early months of his second term. The selloff deepened as Monday’s session wore on after European officials signaled they were unlikely to back down and were considering retaliation. 

“Markets are sensitive to the dynamic developments regarding new tariffs as a basis for negotiating security issues,” said Guillermo Hernandez Sampere, head of trading at MPPM. “Rising uncertainty, as seen last year, will weigh on all markets.”

The standoff is coming at a time when risk appetite has been supported by resilient corporate earnings and sustained investment in artificial intelligence. The outlook will hinge in part on the European Union’s response, with the bloc in talks to impose tariffs on €93 billion of US goods. 

“The key element to watch in the coming days is whether the message translates into formal measures or remains purely rhetorical, which would make a clear difference in the market reaction,” said Francisco Simón, European head of strategy at Santander Asset Management.

The tensions are also adding to the significance of a pending US Supreme Court ruling on some of Trump’s earlier tariffs, with a decision possible as soon as Tuesday.

“It is not about whether the US can roughly maintain its tariff levels,” wrote Krishna Guha, head of central bank strategy at Evercore ISI. It is “rather about whether Trump has to use regular order to impose tariffs, reducing uncertainty and his ability to weaponize tariffs for geopolitical purposes.”

Trump’s threats raise the possibility of European governments trimming their holdings of US assets, supporting the euro, according to George Saravelos, Deutsche Bank’s global head of FX research. As we reported last night, Europe is the US’s largest lender with its countries owning $8 trillion of US bonds and equities, almost twice as much as the rest of the world combined. 

“The key thing to watch will be whether the EU decides to activate its anti-coercion instrument,” Saravelos said. “It is a weaponization of capital, rather than trade flows, that would by far be the most disruptive to markets.”

While Trump’s threats have reignited the ‘Sell America’ trade, some traders expect the swings to be short-lived.

“My working assumption is that an ‘off-ramp’ from these threats will soon be found,” said Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone. “With the fundamental bull case for risk still a resilient one, and providing that any European retaliation remains largely rhetorical, I would view equity dips as buying opportunities.” 

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is down 1.3%, on track for its worst day in two months. Autos & parts, luxury and tech are seeing a brunt of the selling pressure. There is no US cash trading today, however, futures are notably weaker with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq contracts down 1.1% and 1.5%, respectively.  Here are the biggest movers Monday:

• D’Ieteren shares gain as much as 9.2% after the auto distributor announced that its Belron unit had successfully repriced a loan, while the Financial Times reported that Belron was in talks on a stock market listing
• Bayer shares rise as much as 8.4% after the US Supreme Court agreed to hear the German company’s appeal taking aim at thousands of lawsuits targeting Roundup weedkiller for causing cancer
• Ageas shares rise as much as 3.3%, the most since June, after the Belgian health insurance firm boosted its net operating profit guidance for the full year, beating the average analyst estimate
• ASM International shares rise as much as 2.5%, bucking a decline in Europe’s tech sector, after the chip equipment firm reported preliminary orders well ahead of consensus estimates, while seeing a “healthy increase” in 1Q revenue versus 4Q
• Europe’s tariff-exposed sectors — including autos, drinks and shipping — are trading lower on Monday, after President Donald Trump announced on Saturday a new 10% levy on eight countries opposed to his plans to seize Greenland
• LVMH drops as much as 4.8%, and is among the weakest members of the Stoxx 600 consumer products and services index on Monday, as Morgan Stanley downgrades to equal-weight
• Adidas shares fall as much as 4.8% to the lowest level since November, after Bank of America forecast the sportwear retailer’s fourth-quarter sales to undershoot market expectations
• Banca Generali shares declined as much as 5.2% in Milan trading, the most since Aug. 21, after Kepler Cheuvreux analysts cut the recommendation on the stock to hold from buy, ahead of the 2025 results

Asian stocks erased an early decline, as gains in South Korea and Taiwan defied broader market concerns over the latest tariff threats from Trump’s administration. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fluctuated in a narrow range, after capping its best week since early October. Benchmarks declined in Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore and India, amid global risk-off trading after Trump announced new levies on goods from European countries that have rallied to support Greenland. The tech-heavy markets of South Korea and Taiwan shrugged off the regional selloff, extending rallies driven in large part by investor optimism over artificial intelligence demand. TSMC and SK Hynix rose, even after US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Friday that Korean and Taiwanese companies that aren’t investing in the US may face up to 100% tariffs.

In rates, bunds are a touch higher, coinciding with a decline in European natural gas futures, which are trimming last week’s rally. UST and gilt futures are slightly weaker. The yield on 30-year Japanese debt climbed 11 basis points to 3.58%, while rates on 10- and 20-year notes rose to their highest levels since 1999.

In FX, the dollar is softer versus most peers with the Bloomberg Dollar Index down 0.1%. The euro has been resilient in the face of the trade conflict, but the Swedish krona and Norwegian krone are both weaker. The Swiss franc tops G-10 currencies while the yen has seen little follow-through from Japanese PM Takaichi’s widely-expected decision to call an election for Feb. 8.

In commodities, the latest tariff flight-to-quality triggered further record highs for spot gold and silver, up 1.5% and 3.5% respectively. Bitcoin is down by 2.5%.

Top Overnight News

• US President Trump hit 8 European countries with a 10% tariff, effective February 1st, over Greenland. The 8 countries include Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, Finland, the Netherlands and the UK. The tariff will be increased to 25% on June 1st, unless a deal is reached for the purchase of Greenland.
• Pentagon readies 1,500 troops for potential Minnesota deployment: RTRS
• Trump Invited Putin to Join Gaza ‘Board of Peace,’ Kremlin Says: BBG
• The EU is preparing €93bln of tariffs on the US or restrict American companies' from the European market, in retaliation to the latest threat by US President Trump as European leaders meet for an emergency meeting on Thursday: FT
• French President Macron plans to urge the EU to use the Anti Coercion Instrument to retaliate against US President Trump's new 10% tariff on European countries: FT 
• Germany Says Trump Reached Red Line With Greenland Threat: BBG
• Denmark Officials Skip WEF Over Trump’s Greenland Threats: BBG
• Trump's Greenland threat puts Europe Inc back in tariff crosshairs: RTRS
• Canada Weighs Sending Troops to Greenland Despite Tariff Threat: BBG
• At least 39 dead in Spain after two high speed trains collide: RTRS
• The EU is proposing to phase out Chinese-made equipment from critical infrastructure in a move to revamp its security and tech policy: FT
• Cook case could lead to 'cause' protections for Fed, or a roadmap for dismissals: RTRS
• Qatar Wealth Fund CEO Signals Nuanced Approach to AI Investments: BBG
• Hohn Breaks Citadel’s Record With $18.9 Billion Trading Profit: BBG
• Jane Street India’s Trading Gains Soared 494% Before Curbs: BBG
• Japan PM Takaichi to call Feb 8 snap election on spending, tax cuts and defence: RTRS
• Jeremy Grantham Says AI Is Indeed a Classic Market Bubble: BBG
• Guatemalan prison hostages freed, president declares state of siege: RTRS
• Trump Says Mamdani Facing ‘Big Test’ From NYSE’s Texas Trading Outpost: BBG

Trade/Tariffs

• Trump links Greenland threat to Nobel Peace Prize snub, EU eyes trade retaliation: Reuters
• The US is seeking a rare-earth deal with Brazil as Washington is looking for alternative sources away from China, the FT reports citing sources.
• The EU is proposing to phase out Chinese-made equipment from critical infrastructure in a move to revamp its security and tech policy, the FT reports.
• South Korea's Trade Ministry said South Korea and China are to hold a new round of free-trade negotiations on services and investment.
• US President Trump, on Carney in China, said it's OK for him to get a deal with China and if he can get a deal with China, he should do that.
• Brazilian President Lula said he wants to build new partnerships with Mexico, Canada, Vietnam, Japan, and China.

As news began breaking very early Monday of President Trump's scathing letter to Norway over the country's failure to award him the Nobel Peace Prize, some pundits and journalists immediately questioned whether it is real.

But confirmation came soon after. In the letter addressed to Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store, Trump explained that he no longer feels obligated to focus exclusively on peace, while repeating his intent for US control over Greenland. In essence he lays out that no Nobel might turn into no Greenland for Europe (as Denmark exercises control over the resource-rich autonomous territory).

"Dear Jonas: Since your country decided not to give me the Nobel Peace Prize for stopping 8 wars PLUS, I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of peace, although it will always be dominant, but can now think about what is good and proper for the United States," the US President wrote.

Such is an example of kind of over the top and trolling-style rhetoric in the letter which has given people pause, questioning its authenticity. 

"Denmark cannot protect this land from Russia or China… The world is not secure unless we have complete and total control of Greenland," he added.

As for whether Trump indeed wrote it, and concerning the bombastic letter's authenticity, Forbes has noted that "According to PBS Newshour’s Nick Schifrin, who first reported on the matter, the letter has been forwarded by the National Security Council staff to multiple European ambassadors in Washington."

The President also in the letter takes the opportunity to bash Denmark, saying it cannot protect Greenland from Russia or China, and again questioned its legal rights to Greenland: "There are no written documents; it’s only that a boat landed there hundreds of years ago, but we had boats landing there, also."

The message in full, as first reported by a PBS correspondent:

Norway's PM Store has since explained that letter came in response to a joint message he had earlier sent to Trump together with Finnish President Alexander Stubb, rejecting White House plans to impose higher tariffs on Scandinavian countries. Other leading EU countries have also complained and are pushing back publicly:

MERZ: GERMANY, EU ALLIES DETERMINED TO AVOID TARIFF ESCALATION

"We pointed out the need to de-escalate the exchange and requested a phone call between President Trump, President Stubb and myself," Store said, and reiterated Norway's stance on Greenland is unchanged.

Authored by Jerry Rogers via American Greatness,

Over and over again, we’re told to be outraged.

An individual is detained by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). He is later released. And before the facts can catch their breath, Democratic politicians and activist megaphones are already screaming ‘abduction’, ‘fascism’, and ‘state violence’.

Cue the mob. Cue the cameras. Cue the chaos.

It plays out over and over again.

Remember the viral video of a woman screaming ‘I’m a U.S. citizen’ as ICE agents pulled her from a car in the Florida Keys? The media and politicians pounced – ICE ‘arrested an American citizen’. Turns out this person was detained by ICE because she refused to identify herself and was driving her boyfriend’s vehicle. Afterwards, reports disclosed that the boyfriend was in the country illegally. She chose not to comply. Perhaps she wanted the situation to escalate? Much of the debate about ICE has become political theater.

Let’s slow this down and apply something increasingly rare in modern politics: the facts.

ICE detains individuals pursuant to its lawful authority. That happens every day. Sometimes people are held. Sometimes they’re released. Detention and release are not evidence of wrongdoing by law enforcement—they are the process. But in today’s political climate, process doesn’t matter. Optics do. Rage does. And outrage is politicized and monetized.

What does make these encounters dangerous is not ICE. It’s the reckless rhetoric that surrounds them.

When Democratic elected officials tell people that law enforcement officers are ‘kidnappers’ or ‘stormtroopers’, when they suggest citizens have a moral duty to interfere with federal agents, they are not encouraging peaceful protest—they are inciting confrontation. And when mobs take that cue and physically obstruct officers doing their jobs, the risk to everyone involved skyrockets.

This is not complicated.

What happens?

Lawful orders are given. They’re ignored. Resistance follows. A crowd interferes.

Officers are forced to manage a volatile situation that never needed to exist in the first place.

If individuals simply comply with lawful commands—no dramatics, no resistance, no posturing—these could be routine encounters. No drama; no chaos, no violence. If the mob allows officers to do their work instead of inserting themselves into a federal enforcement action, there would be no spectacle, no video clips, no political fundraising emails.

But compliance doesn’t trend on social media.

What we’re witnessing is a dangerous feedback loop. Politicians inflame tensions with extreme language. Activists show up looking for confrontation. Law enforcement is placed in an impossible position. Then, when things escalate—as they predictably do—the very people who lit the fuse rush to the microphones to condemn the explosion.

That’s not leadership. That’s negligence.

No one is above the law, but justice isn’t served when the law is deliberately obstructed either. ICE officers are not free agents; they operate under rules, supervision, and due process constraints. Pretending otherwise may be politically useful, but it is factually false—and dangerously so.

If Democrats truly cared about safety, about de-escalation, about justice, they would stop encouraging resistance and obstruction.

They would tell their supporters the truth: you don’t get to decide, in the moment, which laws you’ll obey and which officers you’ll recognize as legitimate.

These incidents don’t have to happen. They are not inevitable. They are manufactured—by irresponsible rhetoric, by mob interference, and by a political class more interested in chaos than consequences.

And the next time it happens—and it will—remember who made it dangerous.

The Euro Stoxx 50 is down 1.5% on elevated volumes, while Nasdaq 100 futures are also lower amid overnight risk-off across Western markets. The selloff follows the latest trade escalation after President Trump said he would impose a 10% tariff on imports from eight European countries in retaliation for their opposition to U.S. control over Greenland.

On Sunday, Trump wrote on Truth Social that beginning on February 1, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands and Finland will be charged with a 10% tariff on all goods sent to the US. That tariff rate would be increased to 25% by June 1.

"This Tariff will be due and payable until such time as a Deal is reached for the Complete and Total purchase of Greenland. The United States has been trying to do this transaction for over 150 years. Many Presidents have tried, and for good reason, but Denmark has always refused. Now, because of The Golden Dome, and Modern Day Weapons Systems, both Offensive and Defensive, the need to ACQUIRE is especially important," Trump said.

European countries released a joint statement opposing US control of Greenland, blasting Trump's move, saying the president's threats "undermine transatlantic relations and risk a dangerous downward spiral."

The statement from the European countries said that troops deployed to Greenland for the operation "Arctic Endurance" pose "no threat to anyone."

Late Sunday, Trump posted on Truth Social that "NATO has been telling Denmark for 20 years that you have to get the Russian threat away from Greenland. Unfortunately, Denmark has been unable to do anything about it. Now it is time, and it will be done!!! — President Donald J. Trump."

It's important to note that Europeans cannot compete militarily, but Brussels can wield reciprocal tariffs and other economic weapons. This tariff threat prompted Goldman analyst Adam Crook to tell clients Monday that a 10% tariff rate on EU goods would "lower real GDP in the affected European countries by 0.1-0.2% via lower exports. The inflation effects would likely be very small and a Taylor rule would point to modestly lower policy rates, all else equal."

Crook outlined three potential levels of EU trade retaliation:

1. stalling the implementation of last year's EU-US trade deal,

2. imposing counter-tariffs on US goods, and

3. launching the Anti-Coercion Instrument, which would allow for a broader range of non-tariff retaliation options

Also on Sunday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent defended Trump's proposal to impose tariffs on the European countries. He told NBC News' "Meet the Press" that the move to acquire Greenland is to avert a future national emergency.

"It is a strategic decision by the president," Bessent said. "This is a geopolitical decision, and he is able to use the economic might of the U.S. to avoid a hot war."

In response to Trump's tariff threat, European Council President António Costa told EU members that he would convene "an extraordinary meeting of the European Council in the coming days" (more details here).

Commentary from Deutsche Bank's chief FX strategist George is key (view note here):

Europe owns Greenland, it also owns a lot of Treasuries. Saravelos spent most of last year arguing that for all its military and economic strength, the US has one key weakness: it relies on others to pay its bills via large external deficits. Europe, on the other hand, is America's largest lender: European countries own $8 trillion of US bonds and equities, almost twice as much as the rest of the world combined.

. . .

Remember the Munich Security Conference. It was the US Vice President's Munich speech last year that proved the proxy catalyst for an acceleration in European defence spending. Could it be Greenland this year that catalyses an acceleration in European political cohesion?

UBS analyst Joe Dickinson told clients earlier, "The renewed trade conflict also feeds broader geopolitical concerns, including NATO cohesion and the durability of US defence guarantees, with probabilities of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire continuing to drift."

Major European stock indexes were hit by overnight tariff headlines, as were US main equity index futures (US holiday)...

The US-EU spat over Greenland underscores how rapidly escalating geopolitical tensions are reshaping the Western hemisphere in the era of the 'Donroe Doctrine.'

via Middle East Eye

Kurdish-led forces pulled out on Sunday from Syria’s largest oil field as government troops expanded their control across large parts of the country’s north and east.

Government troops drove Kurdish forces from two Aleppo neighborhoods following clashes last week, and on Saturday announced they had captured an area east of the city, as well as Tabqa, in Raqqa province, on the southwestern bank of the Euphrates.

At dawn on Sunday, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) withdrew "from all areas under its control in the eastern Deir Ezzor countryside, including the al-Omar and Tanak oil fields", the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported.

Al-Omar is the country's largest oil field, and was home to the biggest US base in Syria. 

The Kurds' reported withdrawal there follows the government's announcement that it had retaken two other oil fields, Safyan and Al-Tharwa, in Raqqa province.

The government’s advance has so far taken in predominantly Arab areas that fell under Kurdish control during the fight against the Islamic State group.

Clashes erupted after a deal for Kurdish forces to withdraw from areas near Aleppo to the east of the Euphrates collapsed, with both sides reporting casualties.

Each side blamed the other for breaching the agreement.

On Sunday, the Kurdish administration accused government forces of attacking its fighters on multiple fronts, while the army said the SDF had failed to honor a commitment to "fully withdraw" east of the river.

Kurdish authorities imposed a curfew in the Raqqa province after the army declared a stretch of land southwest of the Euphrates a "closed military zone".

The government advances came as President Ahmed al-Sharaa issued a decree granting the Kurds official recognition in an apparent a goodwill gesture, as his government seeks to assert authority across Syria.

The Kurds' de facto autonomous administration, which controls large parts of the northeast, has said the announcement fell short, and the implementation of a deal to integrate Kurdish forces into the state has been stalled for months.

Hundreds of people on Saturday rallied in London against Beijing's controversial new "mega" embassy - days after the Daily Telegraph revealed that Chinese officials plan to construct secret underground chambers right next to some of Britain's most sensitive communications infrastructure.

British politician Kemi Badenoch, a leader of the Conservative Party, took to the mic to excoriate Labour over the plans:

"For those of you who don’t know, I grew up under a dictatorship," she said. "I know what it is like to live under a Government that you are terrified of. I know what it is like to be afraid of what will happen to you if you speak out.

"China is a country that has harassed and sanctioned our MPs like Iain. China is a country that has harassed and abused British nationals connected to China. It helps our enemies, like Russia. It keeps slaves. It disrupts the global trade system." 

"And what worries me is that we have a Government right now that seems to be scared of China. We have a Government that is afraid, too weak, no backbone."

?? Watch: Badenoch excoriates Labour over Chinese super-embassyhttps://t.co/Xf1Cfurq2a pic.twitter.com/Se23eeUisx

— The Telegraph (@Telegraph) January 17, 2026

Meanwhile, former Conservative leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith compared China to Nazi Germany, saying at the protest: "As we come forward now and watch the government trying to give away so much of what we believe in to an overarching, overweening, powerful dictatorship in China, we must remember that we have faced this before in the United Kingdom.

"We have faced it in the 1930s and 40s, when we made big mistakes in not recognising that a totalitarian state had its mind to overtake and overcome this marvellous democracy with its freedoms enshrined in law.

"Well, they failed then and almost too late. Did we realise that and stand against them? This embassy isn’t just about an embassy. This embassy is a token of what we believe in. It will be a blister on the face of freedom in the United Kingdom and all that we stand for."

I believe the Government is acting recklessly in moving towards approving the new Chinese mega-embassy. I think this will prove to be a major failure and, frankly, a disaster for the UK. It would place an even larger Chinese presence right in the heart of London. China already…

— Iain Duncan Smith MP Chingford & Woodford Green (@MPIainDS) January 17, 2026

Plans for the embassy are expected to move forward if PM Keir Starmer approves them next week, however a residents' group has vowed to bring legal action. 

As we noted last week via the Telegraph; The chamber forms part of an extensive subterranean complex comprising 208 rooms beneath the embassy site at the former Royal Mint.

The drawings show that a single concealed chamber will sit directly alongside fibre-optic cables transmitting financial data to the City of London, as well as email and messaging traffic for millions of internet users.

The same hidden room is fitted with hot-air extraction systems, possibly suggesting the installation of heat-generating equipment such as advanced computers used for espionage. The plans also show that China intends to demolish and rebuild the outer basement wall of the chamber, directly beside the fibre-optic cables.

The revelations have prompted sharp criticism from senior UK Conservative figures, including Alicia Kearns, the shadow national security minister, who described approving the plans as providing “a launchpad for economic warfare at the heart of the central nervous system of our critical national infrastructure”.

“The unredacted plans reveal a concealed room running immediately alongside the fibre-optic cables critical to the City and Canary Wharf. Telegraph readers don’t need me to spell out the obvious threats posed, nor China’s subterfuge – so why does the Labour Government?” Ms. Kearns told the newspaper.

The Telegraph further reports on why the proximity to the cables is cause for national security concerns:

Carrying signals bearing the innermost financial secrets of the British economy, the cables stretch between the Telehouse group of data centres in Docklands and other centres around the capital. Linked together, these form the core of the London Internet Exchange (Linx). Beyond London, they connect to Atlantic cables linking to the US.

Linx is one of the biggest internet exchange points in the world, handling vast volumes of data spanning everything from financial transactions to instant messages and emails.Its cables carry the financial transaction data relied upon by banks to update withdrawals and deposits, such as ordinary people’s salary packets and payments for goods bought online.

Professor Alan Woodward, a security expert at the University of Surrey, told The Telegraph that China's plans pose a “red flag.”

“There’s a long history of cable-tapping by East and West alike. Anyone who can do it has done it," Woodward said. “Espionage isn’t just about state secrets. Economic intelligence is central to the mission of foreign intelligence services."

“If I were in their shoes, having those cables on my doorstep would be an enormous temptation,” he added.

Authored by Andrew Korybko,

Trump declared in a letter to Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi that he shared on social media that “I am ready to restart U.S. mediation between Egypt and Ethiopia to responsibly resolve the question of ‘The Nile Water Sharing’ once and for all’, adding in tacit support of Egypt’s position that “no state in this region should unilaterally control the precious resources of the Nile”.

He concluded that “Resolving the tensions around the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is at the very top of my agenda”.

The fact is that “GERD Is Just A False Pretext For Egypt To Pressure Ethiopia” and “Ethiopia’s Final Filling Of Its Grand Renaissance Dam Debunked Years Of Egyptian Disinformation” in 2023. It was also assessed last summer that “Trump’s Latest Remarks About GERD Raise Questions About His Understanding Of This Dispute”, which weren’t corrected as proven by the substance of the abovementioned letter. Egypt might therefore be manipulating him into supporting its regional containment campaign against Ethiopia.

To explain, GERD is a pretext for Egypt to justify meddling inside of and around Ethiopia by resuming its Old Cold War-era policy of backing armed anti-government groups and allying with Eritrea, whose independence was achieved with the help of Egyptian military aid during the decades-long civil war. The Ethiopian Foreign Minister suggested late last year that Eritrea is becoming an anti-Ethiopian state at its Egyptian patron’s behest just like Ukraine became an anti-Russian one at its NATO patrons’ behest.

Egypt also exploited Ethiopia’s MoU with Somaliland in early 2024 for recognizing its 1991 redeclaration of independence in exchange for access to the sea to assemble a containment coalition with Somalia and Eritrea. Last week, Bloomberg reported that Saudi Arabia is finalizing an alliance with Egypt and Somalia for removing Emirati influence from Somaliland, which follows the Somali Defense Minister requesting that the Saudis replicate their successful South Yemeni campaign there sometime soon.

Circling back to Trump’s letter to Sisi, his tacit support of Egypt’s position on GERD – which is a faux dispute since this megaproject is purely about powering Ethiopia’s economic rise and not cutting off water to Egypt – might embolden Cairo to more aggressively contain Ethiopia.

After all, Trump’s implicit backing of Egypt could predispose him to believing that any Ethiopian response to its potentially intensified regional containment is “unprovoked aggression”, which could lead to US pressure upon it.

For example, Ethiopia might use force to expel the Eritrean troops that still occupy parts of its restive Tigray Region and/or deter a Saudi-led coalition campaign against Somaliland by recognizing it and deploying troops there (possibly in coordination with Israel).

Given the influence that Sisi now clearly wields over Trump due to how pleased Trump is with Sisi mediating the Israeli-Hamas ceasefire, which Trump considers to be an historic achievement, Trump might lash out at Ethiopia in those scenarios.

Ethiopia might therefore soon find itself in a difficult position where it’s coerced by the US through various means, from tariff threats to support for Egypt’s regional containment campaign, into strategic concessions at the expense of its sovereignty.

If Ethiopia can’t incentivize Trump via a minerals deal into pivoting to its side or being neutral, then maybe its close Israeli partner can help due to their convergent interests in Somaliland, Israel’s own tensions with Egypt, and its much greater influence with Trump.