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Mon, 25 May 2026 19:15:00 +0000 Corrections Vs Bears: How The Fed Rewired The Market
Corrections Vs Bears: How The Fed Rewired The Market
Corrections Vs Bears: How The Fed Rewired The Market
Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,
After three decades of watching market cycles play out from both sides of the trade, I’ve come to a simple conclusion: Wall Street’s love of simple rules is one of the most dangerous aspects of investing. When stocks fall 10%, it’s just a “correction.” However, if they decline 20%, it’s a “bear market.” Simple, clean, repeatable, and printed on every financial media graphic from here to Tokyo. The problem is that the definitions of a correction and bear market have not been updated since Alan Shaw developed them at Smith Barney in the 1960s. Moreover, the market those definitions were designed to describe no longer exists.
Currently, the S&P 500 index is roughly 83% above its long-term trend line, with the Shiller CAPE (cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio) hovering near 40. That valuation level was only exceeded once in the history of American financial markets. The Fed’s balance sheet, still at $6.7 trillion, is more than eight times its pre-2008 level. Under these conditions, the old bear-market definition no longer measures what it was built to measure. A 20% decline from here doesn’t signal either a regime or price trend change. In other words, it would be only a “correction” within an ongoing bullish trend. That understanding is key to today’s discussion.
The Current Bear Market Definition Is Arbitrary As noted, the “20% rule” “It’s just so easy and simple to remember.”
Shaw’s framework made sense in its time. Markets in those decades lived much closer to a gravitational center of fair value. When prices fell by 20%, they often broke the market’s longer-term trend. A decline of that magnitude carried real information. It told you that selling pressure had overwhelmed buying, the market’s price trend had reversed, and the market’s direction of travel had changed from up to down. That’s precisely what the bear market definition was supposed to capture. A change in regime, not just a number.
The question is: after a 17-year-long bull market that stretched prices well beyond long-term trends, is Mr. Shaw’s measure still valid?
To answer that question, let’s clarify the premise.
A bull market is when the market price is trending higher over a long-term period. A bear market is when the previous advance breaks, and prices begin to trend lower. The chart below provides a visual of the distinction. When you look at price “trends,” the difference becomes both apparent and useful.
The distinction is essential.
“Corrections” “Bear Markets” What a Real Bear Market Actually Looks Like The two genuine bear markets of this century make the definition’s original intent clear. Between March 2000 and October 2002, the S&P 500 lost nearly 49% of its value. It didn’t recover to its prior peak until 2007. Seven years lost. The bullish trend didn’t pause; it broke, and investors who sat through it got years of negative real returns with no policy rescue from Washington or the Fed.
The 2008 crisis was worse. From October 2007 to March 2009, the S&P fell about 57%. It didn’t return to its prior highs until early 2013. The price structure didn’t just dip below an arbitrary threshold. It collapsed, stayed down for years, and required one of the most aggressive monetary policy responses in the Fed’s history to eventually stabilize. That’s a bear market in the original sense of the word. A sustained, structural reversal of the prior bullish trend.
Now compare that to 2022. The S&P peaked on January 3 of that year, fell 25.4% to its October trough, and technically satisfied every condition of a bear market under the standard definition. By July 2023, every point of that decline had been recovered. By early 2024, the index was making new all-time highs. The 2022 decline was painful, but it did not reverse the underlying trend. Yes, prices fell, but found support well above any reasonable measure of long-term fair value, and resumed their climb. Putting the 2022 episode in the same category as 2000 or 2008 doesn’t just mislead investors; it tells the story exactly backward.
How the Fed Rewired the Market To understand why the bear market definition needs to be revised, you have to reckon honestly with what the Federal Reserve has done to the market’s structural foundation. Before the 2008 financial crisis, the Fed’s balance sheet sat at roughly $800 billion. Modest. Stable. Largely inconsequential to equity prices on any given day.
Then came the crisis. The Fed launched three rounds of quantitative easing between 2009 and 2014, pushing its balance sheet to roughly $4.5 trillion. It tried to normalize beginning in 2018, then COVID hit. In two years, the balance sheet more than doubled again, from $4.3 trillion to nearly $9 trillion. As of April, 2026, it still sits at $6.7 trillion, even after years of several years of quantitative tightening.
That liquidity didn’t evaporate. It repriced every financial asset upward. It suppressed yields, starved investors of income alternatives, and effectively forced capital into equities regardless of underlying valuation. The market didn’t reach these levels because corporate America suddenly became dramatically more profitable. It reached them because the price of money was artificially held low for over a decade, which changed the math in every valuation model investors use. The result is a market structure with no historical precedent for its distance from the long-term trend.
What the P/Es Actually Tell You The more bearish crowd consistently points to the Shiller CAPE ratio as a measure of impending doom. However, investors should understand that the CAPE ratio measures the market’s current price relative to 10 years of inflation-adjusted earnings. At 40, investors are currently paying 40 times that earnings figure for every dollar of S&P 500 exposure. That’s a lot by any historical measure, considering the historical median is 16x. The bear’s argument, and rightly so, is that the market has traded above 40 on the CAPE ratio only once before in its history, and that was at the dot-com peak. We know how that ended.
But this is important, as we have discussed many times, the problem is that valuation measures are just that – a measure of current valuation. More importantly, when valuations are excessive, it is a better measure of “investor psychology” and the manifestation of the “greater fool theory.”
Notably, valuation models are not, and were never meant to be, “market timing indicators.” There are many articles penned suggesting that if a measure of valuation (P/E, P/S, P/B, etc.) reaches some specific level, it means that:
The market is about to crash, and Investors should be in 100% cash. Such is incorrect.
What valuations provide is a reasonable estimate of long-term investment returns. It is logical that if you overpay for a stream of future cash flows today, your future return will be low. We can see this evidence by comparing the 10-year total return of a $1000 investment in the stock market to Shiller’s CAPE ratio, as noted above.
However, here’s where it gets interesting. Even if you don’t use the long-term median as your target, the math of mean reversion is sobering at any reasonable level. At the time of this writing, we can map each scenario from the S&P close of 7,399 (May 10, 2026) , and the picture becomes clear.
Notice what that table shows. A 20% decline from current levels leaves the market at roughly 32x cyclically adjusted earnings. That’s twice the historical median. The market doesn’t even begin to approach a valuation floor that has historically supported the start of a new secular bull market until you’re down 50% to 60% from here.
That’s not a prediction; that’s arithmetic, and the difference between a correction and a bear market in today’s financial markets.
The recovery math compounds the problem. A 30% loss requires a 43% gain just to break even, before accounting for the time lost while recovering. A 50% loss demands a full 100% return to get back to where you started. For investors in or near retirement, that’s not a temporary setback. That’s a structural threat to financial security.
“A 20% decline from a market that’s 83% above trend doesn’t reach trend. It barely dents the excess. The old bear market definition was built for a different world, and that world no longer exists.”
Two Halves To A Full Cycle I wrote about this in August 2020, right after the COVID crash had recovered, and everyone was declaring it the shortest bear market in history. My argument then was the same one I’m making now: March 2020 was a correction, not a bear market
Because that’s the part Wall Street glosses over. Every bull market is only half of a full market cycle. The second half, the bear, is when the excesses accumulated during the upswing, the overvaluation, the leverage, the speculative positioning, get wrung out through a sustained decline that resets prices back toward fundamental value. That process has played out after every major bull market in the historical record. From the 1929 collapse to the 1970s grind, the dot-com bust, and the financial crisis. None of them was optional; they were just the structural corrections of prior excesses.
The bull market that started at S&P 683 in March 2009 is now 17 years old. It’s the longest on record and has been sustained by:
Three rounds of QE, A zero-interest rate policy for most of a decade, $5 trillion in pandemic stimulus, and A generational AI investment cycle that’s still in its early innings. All of that is real. But none of it changes the underlying valuation math, and eventually, prices will reflect fundamentals. They always do. The problem for investors, however, isn’t whether a real bear market will happen; it’s when, and more practically, whether your portfolio is built to survive the transition.
As noted, the 2020 and 2022 declines share one critical feature: both recovered before prices touched the long-term trend line shown above. They were corrections in an ongoing bullish trend, and both required a significant Fed or fiscal response to stabilize. A genuine bear market, one that resets valuations toward historical norms, would require neither a quick recovery nor a policy rescue. It would require a decline large enough to reach that trend line.
The bottom line is that the 20% threshold isn’t wrong. It’s just not calibrated for a market that’s trading 83% above its long-term trend. In a world where markets lived near fair value, a 20% decline carried information about the trend. Today, it carries sentiment information. That’s a meaningful difference, and it changes how you should think about both potential corrections and portfolio risk.
Stop anchoring your risk budget to the 20% number.
The relevant question isn’t “how far has this fallen?” It’s “how far is this from where prices would need to be for the bull market trend to genuinely reverse?”
Right now, that gap is enormous. A real bear market, in the structural sense, would likely need to be a 30% to 50% decline, and possibly deeper, before prices would reach the kind of valuation support that has historically ended bear markets and started new secular bulls.
That doesn’t mean panic. It means position sizing, risk management, and stop-loss disciplines need to account for a potential drawdown far larger than the 20% threshold Wall Street treats as the danger zone.
We continue to suggest that investors maintain appropriate hedges, keep risk allocations proportional to their time horizon and income needs, and resist the “buy the dip” impulse when the dip doesn’t actually bring you closer to value.
Make no mistake, the trend is still up. The AI investment cycle is real, earnings are growing, and the tape remains technically constructive at current levels. But the distance between current prices and genuine long-term fair value is wider today than at any point outside the dot-com peak. That’s not a reason to be out of the market. It is a reason to know exactly what you own, why you own it, and what your exit plan looks like if the second half of this cycle finally arrives.
Tyler Durden Mon, 05/25/2026 - 15:15 Close Mon, 25 May 2026 18:40:00 +0000 Pope Sounds Alarm On AI "Slavery" While Church Aligns With Lefty Anthropic
Pope Sounds Alarm On AI "Slavery" While Church Aligns With Lefty Anthropic
Pope Leo XIV published his first encyclical on Monday, entitled Magnifica Humanitas (The Magnificence of the Human Person ).
The ro
Read more.....
Pope Sounds Alarm On AI "Slavery" While Church Aligns With Lefty Anthropic
Pope Leo XIV published his first encyclical on Monday, entitled Magnifica Humanitas (The Magnificence of the Human Person ).
The roughly 42,300-word declaration, issued as a papal encyclical, warned, "The fight against new forms of slavery is a decisive test for the ethical discernment of AI and digital transformation."
"If technology promises emancipation, yet produces new forms of global subordination , it stands in contradiction to the fundamental principle of human dignity," the pontiff explained in the encyclical, while urging governments to regulate the private companies driving AI advances and warning that the pursuit of profit cannot justify mass job losses.
The pontiff called for retraining and protections for working-class folks threatened by AI-related job loss, stronger education to help students understand AI risks, and safeguards against violent, sexualized, or fake AI-generated content targeting children.
His strongest warning came on the military use of AI . Leo said AI risks making life-and-death decisions faster, more impersonal, and easier to justify, especially as cyberattacks, influence campaigns, AI kill chains, and hybrid warfare blur the line between defense and aggression.
At the event earlier today, where the pontiff unveiled the encyclical, attendees included prominent cardinals and theologians, as well as Christopher Olah, a co-founder of the left-leaning AI startup Anthropic, who leads its interpretability team.
The pope said the church and Anthropic will cooperate to "find a path for humanity in the age of artificial intelligence" ...
To note, encyclicals are among the highest forms of teaching from a pope to the Catholic Church's 1.4 billion members worldwide.
The full text can be viewed here .
Odd that the pope bashes AI but aligns with lefty Anthropic ...
How much Anthropic does the Vatican Bank own?
Tyler Durden Mon, 05/25/2026 - 14:40 Close Mon, 25 May 2026 18:05:00 +0000 Everyone Talks About The Cost Of Gasoline... Soon Everyone Will Be Talking About The Cost Of Food
Everyone Talks About The Cost Of Gasoline... Soon Everyone Will Be Talking About The Cost Of Food
Everyone Talks About The Cost Of Gasoline... Soon Everyone Will Be Talking About The Cost Of Food
Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse Blog.
For most people, the price of gasoline is the most obvious consequence of the war in the Middle East. As I write this article, the average price of a gallon of gasoline in the United States is $4.56 . Of course, in some parts of the country, consumers are paying much more than that. This is a big story, and the truth is that gasoline prices are going to go even higher in the months ahead.
But if you think that the price of gasoline is bad, just wait until you see what eventually happens to food prices. The price of diesel has been rising even faster than the price of regular gasoline, and fertilizer prices have been absolutely skyrocketing. Those costs will get passed along to the rest of us. It is just a matter of time. Meanwhile, our farmers are dealing with drought conditions that are unprecedented, and now a “Super El Niño” is coming.
What all of this means is that food prices will rise to very painful levels.
So even though everyone is complaining about rising gasoline prices at the moment, one prominent economist is warning that “the next story is food” …
The cost of food in the U.S. appears poised to rise sharply alongside oil prices, as war-related supply disruptions put pressure on the companies and farmers who keep the country’s shelves stocked.
“The big story right now is oil,” economist Justin Wolfers told MS NOW on Tuesday. “The next story is food.”
Oil prices have risen over 50 percent since the conflict began on February 28, pushing gas prices to a nationwide average of over $4.50 for the first time since 2022.
Can you imagine what would happen if food prices were to rise another 50 percent from current levels?
Over the past year, many of the most common items that Americans purchase at the grocery store have already become much more expensive …
When compared to the same time last year, fruits and vegetables have seen some of the biggest price hikes. Tomatoes are 40% more expensive now than they were this time last year. Bad growing weather, tariffs, and rising fuel prices have all contributed to the huge change in tomato prices, reports the New York Times.
Coffee, another imported product, is 19% more expensive than it was last spring.
You’re also likely seeing inflated prices at the butcher counter. Meat is up 9% overall, but beef has grown even more expensive. Ground beef is about 15% pricier, beef roasts are 18% more, and steak is up 16%.
We can blame the war with Iran for the recent price hikes that we have been experiencing, because the war has made diesel much more expensive.
And diesel is used to transport most of what we eat …
What’s contributing to the price spikes? Fuel prices have soared while the Iran war prevents cargo ships from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital corridor for global oil supplies. Diesel fuel powers fishing boats, tractors and the trucks that ship 83% of U.S. agricultural products.
Just as you’re paying more at the pump, so are truckers who transport goods all around the country. Some vendors and suppliers are adding fuel surcharges to make up for the increased cost of transporting and delivering their goods.
In addition, fertilizer prices have gone absolutely haywire, and those costs will be passed along to us once harvest season arrives.
The solution to this crisis would be for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen.
But Iran isn’t willing to do that.
Instead, Iran intends to make the status quo in the Strait of Hormuz permanent …
Iran and Oman are actively discussing a permanent security mechanism for the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is pushing to institutionalize and normalize a transit fee or toll on commercial shipping vessels navigating the narrow waterway. According to an Iranian diplomatic envoy, the proposed system is designed to secure the long-term positioning of Iran and Oman as the primary regulators of the strait, effectively transforming a temporary leverage point from the recent military conflict into a permanent sovereign right.
To formalize its grip, Iran’s newly established Persian Gulf Straits Authority began applying conditional rules and hefty transit tolls, in some cases exceeding one million dollars per vessel, while granting selective exemptions to friendly nations like Russia or China. By engaging Oman, which shares territorial jurisdiction over the Strait, Iran is seeking to build a coalition that validates these tolls under the guise of funding localized maritime security.
The US maintains an opposing view on the matter, viewing the permanent toll as a non-negotiable barrier to reaching a sustainable peace deal. Under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, international straits are governed by transit passage protocols that guarantee the uninterrupted flow of global commercial shipping, a principle the US insists must be restored without conditions.
This is one of the reasons why there is not going to be an agreement to end the war.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio just warned that what Iran is attempting to do with the Strait of Hormuz “will make a diplomatic deal impossible” …
“A toll collection system in the Strait of Hormuz will make a diplomatic deal impossible.”
“We are very disappointed with NATO allies, we will discuss the issue of troop deployment at the upcoming meeting.”
If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, a global inflation crisis is guaranteed.
And on top of everything else, now a “Super El Niño” is rapidly approaching.
We are being warned that it could potentially be the most powerful “Super El Niño” in recorded history …
Scientists have warned that an imminent ‘super El Niño’ could be even more powerful than a previous event which caused over 50 million deaths.
The 1877 El Niño was one of the most severe climate events in recorded history, triggering a global humanitarian disaster known as The Great Famine.
Climate reconstructions suggest water temperatures in a key region of the Pacific Ocean rose by 2.7°C (4.86°F), which caused disruption to rainfall patterns around the world.
If the Super El Niño of 1877-1878 killed 50 million people when the global population was just a fraction of what it is today, what would an even more powerful Super El Niño do?
An associate professor at Washington State University is telling us that “multiyear droughts similar to those in the 1870s could happen again” …
Estimates indicate the resulting scarcity of food and disease outbreaks killed up to four per cent of the Earth’s population at the time.
That would be the equivalent of at least 250 million people if it happened today.
Now, forecasts suggest water temperatures could potentially exceed 3°C (5.4°F) above average later this year – making the upcoming super El Niño even more powerful than the one nearly 150 years ago.
‘Simultaneous multiyear droughts similar to those in the 1870s could happen again,’ Deepti Singh, associate professor at Washington State University, told the Washington Post.
Worldwide food production was already going to be way down this year due to the global fertilizer crisis.
Now an immensely powerful “Super El Niño” is being added to the equation.
What do you think that all of this is going to do to food prices?
Needless to say, the answer is obvious.
We are in far more trouble than most people realize, but for now, most of the population just continues to party.
Michael’s new book, entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next,” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com .
Tyler Durden Mon, 05/25/2026 - 14:05 Close Mon, 25 May 2026 17:30:00 +0000 Trump Tells Arab States Joining Abraham Accords Should Be 'Mandatory' - Throws Open Door For Iran In Grand Deal
Trump Tells Arab States Joining Abraham Accords Should Be 'Mandatory' - Throws Open Door For Iran In Grand Deal
President Trump is still trying to play the role of the globe's ultimate deal-maker via Truth Social, using a mix of man
Read more.....
Trump Tells Arab States Joining Abraham Accords Should Be 'Mandatory' - Throws Open Door For Iran In Grand Deal
President Trump is still trying to play the role of the globe's ultimate deal-maker via Truth Social, using a mix of mandatory diplomacy and ultimate economic carrots, issuing a lengthy missive on Iran talks and the Abraham Accords on Monday morning.
He introduced the post by stating that negotiations with Tehran are "proceeding nicely" before dropping a provocative diplomatic bombshell: a demand that a big list of major Middle Eastern nations immediately sign onto the Abraham Accords as a prerequisite for any broader peace framework .
The most unexpected aspect to the post laid out that if Tehran plays ball with Washington, Trump is dangling the prospect of the Islamic Republic itself joining the regional coalition , which it must be remembered hinges on 'normalization' with Israel.
"I stated that, after all the work done by the United States to try and pull this very complex puzzle together, it should be mandatory that all of these Countries, at a minimum, simultaneously, sign onto the Abraham Accords ," Trump wrote Monday, referencing a Saturday phone call with Arab leaders.
Trump detailed further :
Those Countries discussed are Saudi Arabia, The United Arab Emirates (already a Member!), Qatar, Pakistan, Türkiye, Egypt, Jordan, and Bahrain (already a Member!). It may be possible that one or two have a reason for not doing so, and that will be accepted, but most should be ready, willing, and able to make this Settlement with Iran a far more Historic Event than it would, otherwise, be. The Abraham Accords have proven to be, for the Countries involved (The United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan, and Kazakhstan), a Financial, Economic, and Social BOOM, even during this time of Conflict and War, with the current Members never even suggesting leaving , or taking so much as even a pause.
The above was coupled with the following ultimatum: "It should start with the immediate signing by Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and everybody else should follow suit. If they don’t, they should not be part of this Deal in that it shows bad intention ."
And then he dropped the significant twist related to Tehran, in claiming that several of the regional leaders he spoke with "would be honored, as soon as our Document is signed, to have the Islamic Republic of Iran as part of the Abraham Accords . Wow, now that would be something special!"
Inviting Iran to join the Abraham Accords as a part of a broader final deal framework has resulted in a lot of head-scratching, given that just weeks ago Trump repeatedly threatened to bomb the country 'back to the stone age' and effectively end 'civilization' there. US rhetoric has been filled with scorn for Iran, and yet it is now being asked to join a grand US-backed alliance.
Trump is his very long message issued a final directive in the following:
"Therefore, I am mandatorily requesting that all Countries immediately sign the Abraham Accords , and that, if Iran signs its Agreement with me, as President of the United States of America, it would be an Honor to have them also be part of this unparalleled World Coalition. The Middle East would be United, Powerful, and Economically Strong, like perhaps no other area, anywhere in the World! By copy of this TRUTH, I am asking my Representatives to begin, and successfully complete, the process of signing these Countries into the already Historic Abraham Accords."
Meanwhile, look who's fully on board and has returned to singing Trump's praises (after expressing concern over a 'bad' Iran deal in the works)...
Whether Trump can single-handedly force countries as far apart in their foreign policies as Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey... or especially Iran, into a binding alignment with Tel Aviv remains a massive question mark (to put it mildly), or rather would be incredible and highly unrealistic.
But with the threat of "shooting, but bigger and stronger than ever before" serving as the baseline, the White House has put regional powers officially on notice - in Trump's logic at least.
Tyler Durden Mon, 05/25/2026 - 13:30 Close Mon, 25 May 2026 16:55:00 +0000 It Was Never About The Climate
It Was Never About The Climate
It Was Never About The Climate
Authored by Silvio Canto Jr via AmericanThinker.com,
Here is a question for your long weekend:
Why haven’t you ever seen a climate change protest before the Chinese embassy anywhere?
Why is it always the US or capitalism messing up the environment?
Why don’t they show up at all when China is a bigger threat to clean air than any US city?
The answer is obvious, but I’ll say it.
It was never about the climate but rather capitalism or the US.
Check this out :
In 2024, climate activists in New York City protested alongside anti-Israel protesters at a rally headlined “Climate Justice Means Free Palestine.”
Last year, climate change celebrity icon Greta Thunberg tried to storm Israel by sea on a flotilla protesting the country’s war in Gaza, yelling “Free! Free! Palestine!” when she was refused entry.
And, last week, activists from CodePink, a far-left feminist activist group that has received funds from an American expatriate, Neville Roy Singham, living in Shanghai, took a break from their rallies supporting the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Cuba Communist Party to circulate a video on Instagram, attacking a Utah data center project backed by investor Kevin O’Leary.
That’s a busy bunch protesting against the West.
Maybe someone should tell them that the clean air in Cuba is due to a collapse of industrial activity.
Or we can always remind them of how they treat gays in Palestine or women in general.
As the article points out, these marches were always about hating the West and what we stand for .
So don’t be fooled by the slogans or some well-meaning people showing up to protest.
The root of all of this is hatred of the West and our individual freedoms.
Tyler Durden Mon, 05/25/2026 - 12:55 Close Mon, 25 May 2026 15:45:00 +0000 The Devil Neither Political Party Will Name
The Devil Neither Political Party Will Name
The Devil Neither Political Party Will Name
Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance
The widening wealth inequality gap is the political third rail nobody in power truly ever wants to touch.
Politicians will scream at each other all day over taxes, healthcare, immigration, tariffs, student loans, climate policy, or whatever outrage is currently driving engagement on cable news and social media. But the second the conversation turns toward monetary policy, toward the machinery of money creation itself, the room suddenly gets very quiet.
That’s because monetary policy has quietly become the single most powerful force reshaping wealth distribution in modern America. And unlike the endless partisan theater surrounding fiscal policy, monetary intervention oddly enjoys remarkable bipartisan support.
Republicans and Democrats may pretend to be existential enemies on television, but when it comes to flooding the financial system with dollars, both parties reliably fall into line. And that support is precisely why this topic is politically radioactive: once people understand how the system works, the illusion of two competing economic ideologies starts to collapse. Republicans want less spending, Democrats want higher taxes…but both parties want the Fed to keep printing dollars.
Since the early 2000s, and especially after 2008 and the COVID era, America has effectively entered a permanent regime of monetary intervention. Quantitative easing, near-zero interest rates, endless debt monetization, emergency lending facilities, and the mainstream acceptance of Modern Monetary Theory-adjacent thinking have fundamentally altered the structure of markets beyond recognition .
When Ben Bernanke first rolled out quantitative easing during the 2008 financial crisis, Americans were repeatedly assured it was a temporary emergency measure. Bernanke described the programs as targeted interventions designed to stabilize markets and support recovery, not permanently redefine the financial system.
QE1 was supposed to calm panic. Then came QE2. Then Operation Twist. Then QE3 became effectively open-ended, with the Fed purchasing tens of billions in bonds every month indefinitely. What began as a supposedly temporary crisis tool metastasized into a permanent feature of the modern economy. And every subsequent crisis only justified bigger interventions: larger balance sheets, lower rates, more liquidity, more market dependence on central bank support.
The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet exploded from under $1 trillion before 2008 to nearly $9 trillion after the pandemic era. Like nearly every government “emergency” program in history, the temporary measure never truly disappeared, it simply normalized, expanded, and embedded itself deeper into the system. It culminated in Neel Kashkari taking to national television to let the world know the Fed has “infinite” cash.
Which is to say…the old rules are dead.
Historical valuation metrics increasingly feel meaningless because markets are no longer functioning inside anything resembling a closed system governed by organic price discovery and economic fundamentals. Investors used to rely on earnings multiples, historical averages, bond yields, and economic cycles because those metrics assumed markets were constrained by actual capital and relatively stable money supply growth.
Now we operate inside a permanently distorted financial system where trillions of dollars can be electronically created and injected into markets whenever instability appears. The market is no longer primarily driven by productivity or efficient allocation of capital. It is driven by liquidity. Price discovery has been replaced by intervention dependency and risk has been socialized while gains remain privatized.
And every time markets threaten to correct naturally, policymakers intervene to ensure asset prices do not fall far enough to inflict meaningful pain on the people who own the overwhelming majority of financial assets. And the consequences of this have been staggering.
While both parties bitch and moan about affordability, protecting the middle and lower class, and “equity”, one of the clearest signs of this Fed-created distortion is the explosive growth of the ultrawealthy class. According to The Wall Street Journal
In other words, Fed policy, blessed by both political parties, is widening the wealth inequality gap both political parties claim to fighting against. This staggering chart shows the result of endless QE: the rich get richer…which would normally be fine with me, I’m a capitalist…except the top 1% are getting richer faster and at the expense of the middle and lower class’ loss purchashing power.
And this is the direct mathematical outcome of an economic system designed to inflate asset prices continuously. The Wall Street Journal cited research showing that the inflation-adjusted wealth of the top 0.1% has increased more than thirteenfold over the past fifty years. Meanwhile, the bottom half of the country spent decades struggling merely to maintain positive net worth.
Think about how insane that divergence really is. Fed policy has caused the wealth of the rich to escape into another dimension entirely while much of the country got buried under inflated housing costs, inflated healthcare, inflated tuition, inflated insurance, inflated food prices, and stagnant purchasing power. It’s a policy that directly benefits the “haves” and disproportionately burdens the “have nots” (think about owning a house while prices rise, versus trying to a buyer of your first house while prices rise).
Nearly 72% of the wealth held by the top 0.1% consists of stocks, mutual funds, and private businesses — precisely the assets supercharged by quantitative easing and artificially suppressed interest rates, the piece notes.
This is the hidden engine underneath modern inequality.
When central banks flood the system with liquidity, the money does not magically disperse evenly across society. It enters through banks, financial institutions, government spending channels, debt markets, and asset purchases. The first recipients of newly created money benefit before inflation fully spreads through the broader economy.
By the time ordinary people feel the effects, prices have already risen. The wealthy own appreciating assets. The middle and lower classes primarily own wages and cash. And wages are always the last thing to adjust.
So while asset holders watch their net worth explode upward, ordinary families experience the opposite reality: homes become unattainable, groceries spike, savings accounts become meaningless, and generations are pushed further away from financial stability.
And the most inconvenient truth for all of Washington is that politicians love pretending to be horrified by affordability crises while continuing to support the exact monetary regime producing them.
They complain about housing costs after years of suppressing rates and inflating real estate prices. They complain about inequality after engineering one of the largest asset booms in modern history. They talk endlessly about helping “working families” while simultaneously creating trillions of dollars that overwhelmingly benefit the people who already own the overwhelming majority of financial assets.
And both parties are complicit, which is what makes the entire charade so grotesque. Both parties scream about fiscal deficits when politically convenient. Yet both become remarkably comfortable with monetary expansion so long as markets remain elevated and the reckoning gets delayed beyond the next election cycle.
Consider the rhetoric around interest rates over the past several years.
President Trump has repeatedly pressured the Federal Reserve for lower rates and easier monetary conditions, arguing that tighter policy threatened markets and growth. Elizabeth Warren has also pushed for looser monetary policy from the opposite ideological direction, warning that higher rates could weaken the labor market and hurt workers.
Different rhetoric, same addiction. The right frames easy money as pro-growth, the left frames easy money as compassionate.But both roads lead to the same destination: more liquidity, higher asset prices, and widening wealth inequality. What’s the last thing President Trump and Elizabeth Warren agreed on?
This is why the supposed economic divide between the parties increasingly feels performative. Beneath the culture war circus exists a deeper bipartisan consensus: financial markets must remain inflated at all costs.
And the lower and middle class gets absolutely brutalized in this arrangement.
Historically, middle-class wealth accumulation depended on disciplined saving, stable employment, affordable housing, and gradual investment appreciation over time. But inflationary monetary regimes destroy the reliability of all of those pathways. Savings become punishment, cash becomes a melting ice cube, young people are forced into speculative assets (or outright becoming gambling addicts ) simply to attempt to preserve purchasing power. Conservative investing gets punished while reckless leverage gets rewarded.
Entire generations now feel compelled to try and make quick money in markets not because they are greedy, but because monetary debasement has made traditional financial prudence nonviable. This creates an economy built less on productivity and innovation and more on asset inflation, debt expansion and outright speculation.
And inflation itself is particularly nefarious because it operates invisibly. It steals purchasing power quietly, gradually, and often incomprehensibly. Most people do not connect central bank balance sheets to why they suddenly cannot afford the same standard of living they had five years earlier. They simply feel squeezed. They work harder, save less, delay families, postpone homeownership, drown in debt, and wonder why prosperity always seems permanently out of reach.
The theft of their purchasing power happens in the darkness. Unlike direct taxation, monetary debasement allows everyone involved to avoid accountability. Instead of openly taxing citizens to fund endless spending and bailouts, the system simply dilutes the value of everyone’s currency. And the people causing the inflation are usually insulated from its consequences because they own the very assets inflated by the policy itself.
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That is why luxury demand continues exploding even while ordinary consumers struggle. The Wall Street Journal recently noted booming demand for Ferrari, Hermès, luxury Manhattan real estate, and private aviation among the ultrawealthy even as many middle-class consumers pull back spending elsewhere. That is not a healthy economy, that is a bifurcated economy.
And Modern Monetary Theory only pushes this logic to its most dangerous extreme. MMT advocates often speak in sanitized academic language about sovereign currency issuance and functional finance, but the real-world result is painfully simple: endless money creation distorts prices, rewards asset holders, punishes savers, and accelerates inequality. A society cannot print its way to genuine prosperity forever, it can only redistribute claims on existing prosperity while weakening the currency denominator underneath the entire system.
The defenders of perpetual intervention always insist the alternative would be catastrophic…markets would crash, unemployment would rise, and recession would follow. There is truth in that argument. The system has become so addicted to liquidity that withdrawal now threatens immense instability.
But that only exposes the deeper problem. A market that cannot survive without permanent monetary life support is no longer a healthy market, it is a managed dependency system. A patient on hospice care. And every bailout pushes the reckoning further into the future while making the eventual consequences even worse.
That is why so many people feel like the game is rigged even when official economic statistics appear healthy. GDP can rise. Stock indices can hit all-time highs. Unemployment can remain low. Yet millions of people still feel poorer because the underlying structure increasingly funnels gains upward while socializing losses downward. If the bond market eventually needs a bailout, which I have speculated it may , this would be a great lesson for us to remember and empower ourselves with.
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Tyler Durden Mon, 05/25/2026 - 11:45 Close Mon, 25 May 2026 15:10:00 +0000 Huawei Touts Sanctions-Busting Chip Breakthrough, SMIC Shares Erupt
Huawei Touts Sanctions-Busting Chip Breakthrough, SMIC Shares Erupt
Semiconductor Manufacturing International soared to a record high in China after Huawei unveiled what it described as a breakthrough pathway for advanced semicondu
Read more.....
Huawei Touts Sanctions-Busting Chip Breakthrough, SMIC Shares Erupt
Semiconductor Manufacturing International soared to a record high in China after Huawei unveiled what it described as a breakthrough pathway for advanced semiconductor production at the IEEE ISCAS conference, without relying on the West's most advanced chipmaking equipment.
Huawei's semiconductor chief, He Tingbo, told the audience earlier today that the company has developed a "New Semiconductor Path in Practice" that replaces traditional Moore's Law-style geometric scaling with time scaling and reducing signal propagation delay across devices, circuits, chips, and systems.
Huawei's press release stated :
In her speech, she presented the Tau (t) Scaling Law, a new principle for guiding the future development of the semiconductor industry. This law proposes replacing geometric scaling with time (t) scaling as a new guiding principle for the evolution of both semiconductors and electronic systems. Based on this principle, innovative technologies such as LogicFolding can be used to continuously compress signal propagation delay and steadily improve transistor density, which will drive the ongoing evolution of semiconductors and electronic systems.
Tingbo said Huawei plans to make 1.4-nanometer chips by 2031 using its own "LogicFolding" architecture. TSMC has said it expects to begin mass production of 1.4nm chips in 2028, leaving Huawei about five years behind the global leader, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing.
Tingbo claims LogicFolding can boost chip performance and will be used in upcoming Kirin mobile chips expected this fall.
This comes as U.S. sanctions on advanced chipmaking equipment and high-end semiconductors have been aimed at slowing China's push into cutting-edge chip production.
Shares of Chinese chip stocks surged, with SMIC jumping more than 18% and Hua Hong Semiconductor hitting daily limits.
The view is that this is a potential breakthrough in China's effort to bypass U.S.-led export controls and reduce dependence on Western semiconductor equipment.
We suspect someone in the Trump team will likely weigh in on this development in the coming days, if not weeks.
Tyler Durden Mon, 05/25/2026 - 11:10 Close Mon, 25 May 2026 14:35:00 +0000 Spencer Pratt Literally Uses LA Shithole Filth As Campaign Ad
Spencer Pratt Literally Uses LA Shithole Filth As Campaign Ad
Spencer Pratt Literally Uses LA Shithole Filth As Campaign Ad
Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,
Spencer Pratt is running a campaign unlike anything seen in Los Angeles politics. The former reality star turned mayoral candidate isn't just talking about the city's collapse into filth, crime, and decay - he's making the evidence work for him.
His team has taken to the streets with power washers and stencils, blasting clean messages like "IMAGINE IF THE STREETS WERE THIS CLEAN" and "SPENCER PRATT FOR MAYOR" directly into the grime accumulated under Democrat leadership.
The tactic is as simple as it is devastating. The cleaned sections stand out starkly against the surrounding trash and dirt, creating a living advertisement for change.
If Democrat Mayor Karen Bass wants the signs gone, her administration has to actually clean the streets - something residents say hasn't happened consistently for years.
Pratt's approach highlights the stark reality Los Angeles faces.
Recent reports and viral videos paint a picture of a once-great city reduced to dystopian conditions: massive homeless encampments overrun by rats, open-air drug markets operating brazenly, and public spaces buried under tents, trash, and human waste.
One video shows entire networks of makeshift homes under bridges tapping into city power.
Another resident-driven idea gaining traction involves marking potholes and blighted areas with pro-Pratt messages, forcing city crews to respond faster to erase political opposition than to basic maintenance.
Pratt has been vocal about the root causes. In campaign videos, he stresses that Los Angeles doesn't have a homelessness problem so much as a drug addiction and failed leadership crisis. He points to billions spent with little visible improvement, calling out the "Homeless Industrial Complex" of nonprofits and bureaucrats who profit from perpetuating the cycle rather than solving it.
His five-step plan focuses on mandatory treatment, clearing encampments, cracking down on crime and drug use, and prioritizing public safety. "If that addict on your street were your own son, what would you do?" he asks, framing the issue as a moral and practical emergency.
The establishment is not amused. As Pratt surges in polls and fundraising - recent figures show him closing the gap on incumbent Karen Bass - the attacks have intensified. Hollywood figures and metropolitan leftists have lashed out, with "Price is Right" host Drew Carey calling Pratt a "serial scammer" and telling voters to reject him in a foul-mouthed rant.
Pratt's organic, creative tactics, and direct appeals - have rattled the machine. Supporters see it as a masterclass in connecting with frustrated residents tired of excuses.
Decades of progressive policies prioritizing open borders, soft-on-crime approaches, and massive unchecked spending have produced predictable results. California has funneled enormous sums into homelessness programs, yet streets remain filthy and unsafe. Residents navigate urine-soaked doorways and blocked infrastructure daily while officials tout statistics that don't match lived experience.
Pratt's personal stake adds weight. His home in Pacific Palisades was lost in the fires, an event he ties directly to leadership failures. He frames his run as fighting for his family and the city he loves, rejecting the decline as inevitable.
This isn't just another election cycle in LA. Pratt's campaign forces a confrontation with reality: voters can continue down the path of managed decay or demand basic competence - clean streets, safe neighborhoods, and accountability. The power-washed messages make the choice literal. As the June primary approaches, Angelenos are paying attention.
The broader lesson extends beyond one city. When leadership prioritizes ideology over results, everyday life suffers. Pratt's unorthodox push represents a rejection of that status quo in favor of practical restoration. Whether it translates to victory remains to be seen, but the conversation he has sparked is long overdue. Los Angeles deserves better than managed decline.
Tyler Durden Mon, 05/25/2026 - 10:35 Close Mon, 25 May 2026 14:00:00 +0000 Pentagon Conducts First Military Drill In Venezuela Since Maduro Overthrow
Pentagon Conducts First Military Drill In Venezuela Since Maduro Overthrow
On Saturday, the US military conducted a highly visible drill right in the heart of Caracas, marking the first known American military exercise on Ve
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Pentagon Conducts First Military Drill In Venezuela Since Maduro Overthrow
On Saturday, the US military conducted a highly visible drill right in the heart of Caracas, marking the first known American military exercise on Venezuelan soil since the chaotic January 3rd operation to abduct Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro .
The show of force involved two US Marine Corps Osprey aircraft touching down near the recently reopened US Embassy in Caracas , which went operational only two months ago, in March.
via Reuters "The drill, which the Venezuelan government said it had authorized as an evacuation drill for possible medical emergencies or disasters , included two MV-22B ?Osprey aircraft that landed near the U.S. embassy and vessels that entered Venezuelan ?waters in the Caribbean Sea," Reuters detailed .
Venezuela's Foreign Minister Yván Gil had announced and previewed the drill to the local population, and dubbed the action a 'rapid response' exercise in the heart of the capital.
There were reports of protests in the capital , by those who reject their country being used for American military drills :
While some Caracas residents gathered to observe the aircraft, a group of protesters elsewhere in the city displayed a Venezuelan flag with the message 'No to the Yankee drill' to express their opposition .
However, other crowds reportedly gathered just the watch the large Marine Corps Ospreys sweep in low to the city.
The US Embassy later revealed that Gen. Francis L. Donovan, the head of US Southern Command, was personally on board one of the Ospreys.
This marks Donovan's second high-profile visit to Caracas since the January raid, which left a bloody trail of at least 83 dead - mostly Venezuelan military forces, Cuban presidential guards, but also reportedly four civilians.
According to an official post on X by the US Embassy, Donovan's itinerary made for a busy day: "[Donovan] participated in bilateral talks with high-ranking representatives of the interim government, met with the leadership and staff of the United States Embassy, and observed the joint force conducting a military response exercise," it said.
The current Venezuelan government, now helmed by Acting President Delcy Rodriguez (Maduro's own former vice president), has been moving quickly to manage domestic optics .
The irony is that there has not in the end actually been 'regime change' in Venezuela - only government 'decapitation' - with Maduro on US soil and in federal custody. Rodriguez is a socialist as Latin American leaders have come, and she presides over the same government - only this time while serving Washington oil and business interests .
Tyler Durden Mon, 05/25/2026 - 10:00 Close Mon, 25 May 2026 13:33:54 +0000 Futures, Global Stocks Soar To All Time High, Oil Plunges On Endless "Iran Deal" Drumbeat
Futures, Global Stocks Soar To All Time High, Oil Plunges On Endless "Iran Deal" Drumbeat
US equity futures jumped and global stocks rose to record highs as crude oil fell after officials signaled - once again - that the US was near
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Futures, Global Stocks Soar To All Time High, Oil Plunges On Endless "Iran Deal" Drumbeat
US equity futures jumped and global stocks rose to record highs as crude oil fell after officials signaled - once again - that the US was nearing a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore oil flows. The dollar weakened while precious metals and crypto bounced from Friday's drop. While the US and Iran closed in on a deal, Trump said he won’t “rush” into an agreement. The deal is still a work in progress and the US is going to give diplomacy every chance to succeed, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said. S&P 500 futures squeezed higher by 0.9%, in line with Goldman expectations , while Nasdaq futs were up 1.3%, both printing in record territory as the market just can't get enough of news that "a deal is imminent." US cash markets are shut Monday for the Memorial Day holiday. The dollar retreated against all of its Group-of-10 peers. Crude oil slumps more than 5%: WTI crude futures fall to around $91 and Brent contracts drop below $98 a barrel. Aussie tops G-10 leaderboard; euro and pound both add about 0.3%. Nikkei surges more than 3% as Japanese equities hit record highs, and Taiex also jumps about 3%. Mainland China indexes are all in the green. Hong Kong and South Korea are closed for holidays. T-note futures jump 20/32 to near 109-28. Australian curve bull flattens with 10-year yield down 5 bps. JGB futures rally as Japan’s long-end yields slide. Gold rises more than $50 to near $4,560 and silver surges 3%.In short: global euphoria.
Consistent The MSCI All Country World Index, the broadest measure of global equities, rose 0.4% to an all-time high closing level. Europe’s benchmark Stoxx 600 gained for a sixth straight session to the highest intraday level since the outbreak of the Iran war. Trading volumes were light, with a number of markets including the UK, Norway and Denmark closed for holidays.
Brent tumbled almost 6% to below $100 a barrel amid optimism a deal will help restore the flow of oil through the vital Middle East artery.
Senior US officials said Sunday that the US and Iran were nearing an agreement that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, though final approval from both sides could still take several days. Iran said a deal isn’t imminent, though there is consensus on a number of issues. While the US and Iran closed in on a deal, President Donald Trump said he won’t “rush” into an agreement. The deal is still a work in progress and the US is going to give diplomacy every chance to succeed, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said.
Similarly, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson says they have reached a framework with the US but nobody can say that an agreement between the two sides is imminent, Reuters reports. he adds that Iran will not collect tolls on the Strait of Hormuz but it's normal that services provided would require a price.
In other words, we don't have a deal as the key sticking points remain unresolved (and unresolcable) but the market is acting as if there is a deal, as has been the case since April.
“After today’s market moves, the most likely scenario already appears to be largely priced in,” said Roberto Scholtes Ruiz, head of strategy at Singular Bank. “Therefore, I would expect some ‘sell the news’ dynamics once a deal is finally reached, and I would refrain from adding exposure to equities until yield curves move lower.”
The improvement in risk sentiment follows weeks of stalemate between the US and Iran after several previous efforts to strike a deal. Global equities have since surged on optimism that Middle East tensions may ease and on renewed enthusiasm for the artificial intelligence trade, while elevated oil prices and higher inflation pushed bond yields to multi-year highs.
“A clear FOMO factor contributes to unexpectedly strong global risk appetite: investors don’t want to be left out if the Iran war comes to an end while the AI theme continues to lift the stock market,” said Dana Malas, a strategist at SEB.
Traders also remain focused on inflation. They have fully priced in a Federal Reserve rate hike by year-end, underscoring expectations that the US central bank chair Kevin Warsh will need to act swiftly. Later this week, US Personal Consumption Expenditures data and inflation readings across Europe will offer clues on price pressures and the direction of interest rates.
Warsh, who has promised the biggest shakeup in decades at the US central bank, was sworn into office Friday. Trump stressed that he wants Warsh to independently lead the Fed, as he looked to downplay investor concern that he would pressure the new central bank chief on policy decisions. The Fed may have enough reason to justify an interest rate cut rather than a hike under new chairman Warsh, according to BlackRock Inc.
Europe is picking up where it left off last week after Trump talked up the prospects of a peace deal over the weekend. SocGen’s strategists reckon “muscle memory” built in previous crises is encouraging investors to buy dips and BofA’s say London’s buyside is “long and paranoid.”
Delivery Hero shares rise 8.2% to €36.3 on Tradegate, above Uber’s indicative offer of €33 per share, signaling that some investors believe a higher takeover price is possible
Nexi shares rose as much as 5.5% after Italy’s state lender Cassa Depositi e Prestiti said it plans to raise its stake in the payments company to as much as 29.9%, tightening its grip on the Italian payments group
Kinnevik gains as much as 4.7% after the struggling Swedish investment group appointed the former finance boss of the Wallenberg family’s main holding company as its new chief executive officer
Hexagon gains as much as 2.3% after being upgraded to buy from neutral at SB1 Markets, with the broker saying the Swedish industrial technology group is an attractive investment after its upcoming spin-off of subsidiary Octave
Kambi shares advance as much as 10% after the Swedish sports betting services firm’s CEO Werner Becher bought 20,900 shares in the company at SEK156 per share, representing a 3% premium versus Friday’s close.
The Stoxx 600 energy sector is the worst-performer on Monday after oil declined as senior US officials gave further, positive signals on progress toward a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while airline and travel stocks outperform
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose for a third straight session as expectations over AI-driven revenue bolstered tech shares, while signs of a potential US-Iran deal buoyed risk appetite. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 1.5%, with TSMC, MediaTek and Delta Electronics providing the biggest support. A sub-gauge of information technology jumped to a record high. Taiwan and Japan led gains, though markets in Hong Kong and South Korea are closed for Buddha’s Birthday.
Sustained optimism around artificial intelligence and semiconductor demand continued to underpin sentiment across the region after upbeat earnings. Japan’s component makers including Taiyo Yuden surged, while Chinese semiconductor stocks also gained after Huawei Technologies touted a potential breakthrough in making advanced chips.
“The kind of near-term obsession with AI has really focused people much more heavily on Taiwan and South Korea,” Alison Shimada, senior portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments, said on Bloomberg TV. At some point investors may take profit and rotate into markets like China and India selectively, she added.
China’s CSI 300 Index rose 1.6% amid expectations Beijing’s crackdown on cross-border trading would direct flows into domestic equities. Citic Securities said the move may hit as much as $32 billion of assets in Hong Kong, but said the impact is likely to be manageable. Chinese coal mining stocks rose after a deadly accident in Shanxi province raised concerns about possible supply disruptions.
Elsewhere, as reported last week, China launched an unprecedented campaign against illegal cross-border trading to stem capital outflows, threatening severe penalties against popular brokers and ordering non-compliant accounts to be liquidated within two years.
Top Overnight News
Iran Talks Bog Down Over Nuclear Program, Sanctions Relief: WSJ
US, Iran inch toward deal as gaps remain on uranium, sanctions: BBG
Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson says they have reached a framework with the US but nobody can say that an agreement between the two sides is imminent; Iran will not collect tolls on the Strait of Hormuz but it's normal that services provided would require a price: RTRS
Secretary of State Rubio says Iran deal is still a work in progress: BBG
Iran's top envoys discussing potential peace deal with Qatar prime minister, official says: RTRS
Oil Slides as Ships Move Toward Hormuz: WSJ
Hassett says ending Iran war may create room for Fed rate cut: BBG
Pope urges AI regulation, apologizes for transatlantic slavery: RTRS
Pope Leo Compares AI Threat to Biblical ‘Tower of Babel’: WSJ
ECB likely to revise its inflation outlook in June, Lagarde says: BBG
Uganda confirms two more Ebola cases, taking total to seven: RTRS
Huawei Says It Has Workaround to Match Leading Chips: WSJ
Meet Mark Zuckerberg’s Right-Hand Man Who’s Unleashing AI at Meta: WSJ
Strategists warn yields to stay high even if Iran war ends: BBG
Former SNP chief pleads guilty to embezzling $540,000: RTRS
Pakistan Shi'ites deported from UAE return to lost jobs, frozen savings: RTRS
Iran War News
US President Trump posted on Saturday that an agreement has largely been negotiated, subject to finalisation between the US, Iran and various Middle Eastern countries, while the final aspects and details of the deal were being discussed, and will be announced shortly. Trump stated in addition to many other elements of the agreement, the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened.
US President Trump posted on Sunday that negotiations are proceeding in an orderly and constructive manner, while he informed representatives not to rush into a deal and that time is on their side. Trump stated the blockade will remain in full force and effect until an agreement is reached, certified, and signed, and that both sides must take their time and get it right.
US President Trump posted on Sunday “If I make a deal with Iran, it will be a good and proper one, not like the one made by Obama, which gave Iran massive amounts of CASH, and a clear and open path to a Nuclear Weapon. Our deal is the exact opposite, but nobody has seen it, or knows what it is. It isn’t even fully negotiated yet.”
US President Trump convened a meeting with his senior national security team on Friday morning regarding the war with Iran, according to Axios's Ravid citing two US officials, while the sources stated that Trump was seriously considering launching new strikes against Iran, barring a last-minute breakthrough in negotiations.
US President Trump posted a generated image of a strike on Iranian-flagged vessels with the caption ‘Adios’.
US Secretary of State Rubio said there may be “some good news” regarding the blocked Strait of Hormuz in the coming hours, but not final news, while he also commented that a nuclear deal cannot be reached with Iran in 72 hours and that nuclear negotiations are very technical issues that cannot be done in 72 hours ‘on the back of a napkin’. Rubio separately commented that President Trump is not going to make a bad deal and that it takes time as they have to wait to hear back from Iran, while he suggested that signing a deal with Iran is still possible on Monday and that they will either a good agreement with Iran or will deal with the matter in another way, but will give diplomacy every chance to succeed before exploring alternatives.
US and Iran were reportedly close to signing an agreement involving a 60-day ceasefire extension, which could be extended by mutual consent, according to Axios. Furthermore, a US official said Trump’s key principle is “relief for performance”, while Iran wanted funds unfrozen immediately and permanent sanctions relief, but the US position is that this would only follow tangible concessions. It was also reported that US President Trump told leaders of Arab and Muslim countries during a Saturday conference call that if a deal to end the Iran war is achieved, he wants their nations to join the Abraham Accords and sign peace agreements with Israel, according to Axios's Ravid.
US senior official said the White House doesn’t expect an agreement to end the war with Iran on Sunday and believes it could take several days for the deal’s approval by Iran’s leadership, according to Axios.
US senior officials said the naval blockade will only be lifted after Iran opens the Strait of Hormuz, and no funds will be released until enriched uranium is handed over, while it was stated that there is agreement on 95% of a deal, but it needs to be drafted. Furthermore, difficulties remained regarding issues, and it is estimated to take 5-6 days to receive approval from Supreme Leader Khamenei, with any further changes also requiring his consent, according to Jerusalem Post’s Amichai Stein.
US and Iran are said to have agreed in principle to a preliminary deal aimed at ending the war, which would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and limit Iran’s uranium stockpile, but remains subject to final approval, which is expected to take several days, according to NYT. A separate report also noted that the US understands that Iran agrees in principle to dispose of uranium stockpile and that the Supreme Leader endorses the broad template, although there was no immediate confirmation from Iran or elaboration on what an "in principle" agreement meant, according to Sky News.
US officials stated that Iranian negotiators are facing difficulty in communicating with Supreme Leader Khamenei, which is the reason for the delay in the agreement, according to CBS.
Iranian President Pezeshkian said their negotiating team will not compromise when it comes to the country’s honour or dignity, while he said they are ready to reassure the world that they are not seeking nuclear weapons.
Iranian source said Iran has no optimism towards the US and that there is no final deal yet, with challenges remaining. The source also stated that Iran rejects linking frozen assets to nuclear stockpiles and has not made any new nuclear commitments, while Iran demands the release of frozen assets as a condition for a deal and will monitor US actions if a deal is reached, according to Tasnim. Furthermore, it was reported that there is still the possibility an agreement may be cancelled.
Iran said on Friday that 'no deal' will reach a conclusion if the US demands enriched uranium handover. It was also reported that an Iranian official source said that stopping the war on all fronts is the essential prerequisite for discussing any future negotiations, while the source stated there was no final agreement yet, and work is underway to narrow the gap between Tehran and Washington, according to Al Jazeera.
IRGC advisor said their enemy knows that if it wants to make a mistake, it will receive an irreparable blow and that Iran would retaliate 10-fold against the US. It was separately reported that Iran shot down an Israeli surveillance drone, according to Mehr News Agency.
Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal and International Affairs Kazem Gharibabadi said Iran and Oman discussed Hormuz maritime rules amid ongoing US talks.
Iranian officials said major disagreements remain, especially over the status of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's nuclear program and conflicts involving Tehran-backed groups in Lebanon, according to Al Jazeera.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said on Friday that the differences between Iran and the US are so deep and numerous that it cannot be said that they will definitely reach a conclusion with several visits or negotiations within a few weeks, according to Fars.
Israeli PM Netanyahu told US President Trump that Israel will maintain the freedom to act in Lebanon, while Netanyahu said that Trump agrees that the Iran deal must remove the nuclear threat.
Israel conducted a strike on Arzoun in the city of Tyre, southern Lebanon.
Hezbollah deputy leader Naim Qassem said any attempt to disarm Hezbollah would lead to its elimination and the gradual Israeli occupation of Lebanon, while he added that Hezbollah will remain on the battlefield until an Israeli withdrawal.
A drone attack targeted the Pehmerga command centre in Salaymaniyah, Iraq, according to IRNA.
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