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Mon, 19 Jan 2026 04:55:00 +0000 China Tech Boom Leaves Economic Malaise Behind
China Tech Boom Leaves Economic Malaise Behind
By Jeanny Yu, Bloomberg Markets Live strategist and reporter
Nearly a year after DeepSeek’s AI breakthrough rattled global markets, China is entering 2026 with a fresh
Read more.....
China Tech Boom Leaves Economic Malaise Behind
By Jeanny Yu, Bloomberg Markets Live strategist and reporter
Nearly a year after DeepSeek’s AI breakthrough rattled global markets, China is entering 2026 with a fresh wave of technological advances that are powering a stock rally, even as its economy remains fragile.
Thanks to fresh progress in sectors from commercial rockets to robotics and flying cars, Chinese tech shares have begun the new year with a bang. An onshore Nasdaq-like tech gauge has shot up almost 13% so far this month, while a measure of Hong Kong-listed Chinese tech firms has climbed nearly 6%. Both have outperformed the Nasdaq 100.
Enthusiasm about homegrown technologies has been the single biggest driver of China’s equities bull run since April, even as the world’s second-largest economy remained mired in a housing slump and anemic consumption. The momentum may gain further support in the coming months as DeepSeek rolls out a new AI model and China unveils a five-year economic blueprint prioritizing technological self-reliance.
“The stock market is telling us that what China is doing in technology sector is going to be very exciting going forward,” Mark Mobius, managing director of Mobius Emerging Opportunities Fund, told Bloomberg TV on Friday. “You must remember China’s goal now is to overtake the US in technology, in high-level chips, in all kinds of AI. So the money is going in that direction.”
Since DeepSeek shocked global markets with its cheap and equally well-performing AI models on Jan. 27 last year, fellow Chinese firms have accelerated efforts to develop their own versions. Adoption of generative AI has also surged among the country’s Internet giants from Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. to Tencent Holdings Ltd.
Elsewhere, Chinese robots have competed in marathons, sparred in boxing matches and performed folk dance routines. In manufacturing, large language models are being embedded into advanced equipment, such as flying taxis and precision machine tools. The developments are recasting China in investors’ eyes from a low-cost manufacturing base into a credible challenger to US tech leadership, just as global capital hunts for the next growth engine.
In a basket of 33 Chinese AI stocks tracked by Jefferies Financial Group Inc., the rally in the past year expanded their combined market value by about $732 billion, the brokerage said in a Jan. 13 report. Jefferies said it sees further upside because China’s AI’s market capitalization represents only 6.5% of the US’s.
The exuberance is spilling beyond the secondary market. A flurry of recent listing debuts of Chinese AI-related companies posted blockbuster gains, emboldening their peers to tap public markets. Among those in the pipeline are Xpeng’s flying-car unit, rocket maker LandSpace Technology and BrainCo, a potential rival to Neuralink Corp.
“Looking ahead, we anticipate that the next major breakthrough in AI will occur at the application layer,” said Joanna Shen, JPMorgan Asset Management’s emerging market and Asia Pacific equities investment specialist. “China, in particular, is well-positioned to lead this evolution, given its vast array of user cases across wearables, edge devices, and internet platforms.”
To be sure, the stellar rally has triggered concerns about stretched valuations. Cambricon Technologies Corp., an AI chipmaker that competes with Nvidia Corp., is trading about 120 times to forward earnings . A gauge tracking Chinese robots is trading at more than 40 times forward earnings, higher than the Nasdaq 100’s 25 times.
Beijing’s latest decision to tighten margin financing was also a sign of authorities’ growing unease with speculative excess, especially in pockets of the technology sector.
That said, some investors remain optimistic about the industry’s prospects due to advantages such as a low-cost base and strong state backing and planning.
“China’s low-cost model for AI may well pay off faster” than its US peers, Gavekal Research’s technology analyst Tilly Zhang wrote in a note dated Jan. 16. “The ‘DeepSeek moment’ encouraged China to focus on a strategy of cheap, good-enough models.”
Expected within this quarter, the release of DeepSeek’s R2 model may provide the next catalyst. The new model, which will likely boast leading-edge performance at an ultra-low cost, “has the potential to disrupt the sector again, underscoring China’s position as the main rival to US AI supremacy,” Bloomberg Intelligence wrote in a recent note.
Details of China’s new five-year plan due for release in March, which places great emphasis on technological self-sufficiency, may offer stock bulls another reason to buy.
Chinese stocks may further outperform their US counterparts if earnings growth continues to accelerate, especially in sectors with advanced technologies and strong exports, said Vivian Lin Thurston, portfolio manager at William Blair Investment. “I expect to see attractive investment opportunities in these industries as we have seen in 2025, including internet, AI, semiconductor-related hardware tech, robotics, automation and biotech.”
Tyler Durden
Sun, 01/18/2026 - 23:55 Close
Mon, 19 Jan 2026 04:20:00 +0000 Chaos By Design
Chaos By Design
Chaos By Design
Authored by Jerry Rogers via American Greatness,
Over and over again, we’re told to be outraged.
An individual is detained by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). He is later released. And before the facts can catch their breath, Democratic politicians and activist megaphones are already screaming ‘abduction’, ‘fascism’, and ‘state violence’.
Cue the mob. Cue the cameras. Cue the chaos.
It plays out over and over again.
Remember the viral video of a woman screaming ‘I’m a U.S. citizen’ as ICE agents pulled her from a car in the Florida Keys? The media and politicians pounced – ICE ‘arrested an American citizen’. Turns out this person was detained by ICE because she refused to identify herself and was driving her boyfriend’s vehicle. Afterwards, reports disclosed that the boyfriend was in the country illegally. She chose not to comply. Perhaps she wanted the situation to escalate? Much of the debate about ICE has become political theater.
Let’s slow this down and apply something increasingly rare in modern politics: the facts.
ICE detains individuals pursuant to its lawful authority. That happens every day. Sometimes people are held. Sometimes they’re released. Detention and release are not evidence of wrongdoing by law enforcement—they are the process. But in today’s political climate, process doesn’t matter. Optics do. Rage does. And outrage is politicized and monetized.
What does make these encounters dangerous is not ICE. It’s the reckless rhetoric that surrounds them.
When Democratic elected officials tell people that law enforcement officers are ‘kidnappers’ or ‘stormtroopers’, when they suggest citizens have a moral duty to interfere with federal agents, they are not encouraging peaceful protest—they are inciting confrontation. And when mobs take that cue and physically obstruct officers doing their jobs, the risk to everyone involved skyrockets.
This is not complicated.
What happens?
Lawful orders are given. They’re ignored. Resistance follows. A crowd interferes .
Officers are forced to manage a volatile situation that never needed to exist in the first place.
If individuals simply comply with lawful commands—no dramatics, no resistance, no posturing—these could be routine encounters. No drama; no chaos, no violence. If the mob allows officers to do their work instead of inserting themselves into a federal enforcement action, there would be no spectacle, no video clips, no political fundraising emails.
But compliance doesn’t trend on social media.
What we’re witnessing is a dangerous feedback loop. Politicians inflame tensions with extreme language. Activists show up looking for confrontation. Law enforcement is placed in an impossible position. Then, when things escalate—as they predictably do—the very people who lit the fuse rush to the microphones to condemn the explosion.
That’s not leadership. That’s negligence.
No one is above the law, but justice isn’t served when the law is deliberately obstructed either. ICE officers are not free agents; they operate under rules, supervision, and due process constraints. Pretending otherwise may be politically useful, but it is factually false—and dangerously so.
If Democrats truly cared about safety, about de-escalation, about justice, they would stop encouraging resistance and obstruction.
They would tell their supporters the truth: you don’t get to decide, in the moment, which laws you’ll obey and which officers you’ll recognize as legitimate.
These incidents don’t have to happen. They are not inevitable. They are manufactured —by irresponsible rhetoric, by mob interference, and by a political class more interested in chaos than consequences.
And the next time it happens—and it will—remember who made it dangerous .
Tyler Durden
Sun, 01/18/2026 - 23:20 Close
Mon, 19 Jan 2026 03:45:00 +0000 Massive High-Velocity Coronal Mass Ejection Blasts From Sun, Earth Impact Possible In Days
Massive High-Velocity Coronal Mass Ejection Blasts From Sun, Earth Impact Possible In Days
The Space Weather Prediction Center issued an alert Sunday afternoon after a powerful X1.9 solar flare erupted on the Sun, with the space wea
Read more.....
Massive High-Velocity Coronal Mass Ejection Blasts From Sun, Earth Impact Possible In Days
The Space Weather Prediction Center issued an alert Sunday afternoon after a powerful X1.9 solar flare erupted on the Sun, with the space weather event expected to produce an Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME).
Stefan Burns, a geophysicist and space weather forecaster, wrote on X that the X1.9 flare is "insane" and will produce a "huge coronal mass ejection."
"A huge coronal mass ejection has been launched toward Earth at high velocity. We will have a BIG solar storm impact in 2 to 3 days. Expect at least G3 geomagnetic storming. Early forecasts are liable to revision as more data comes in," Burns said.
Space Weather News' Ben Davidson streamed a live analysis on YouTube earlier about the X-class solar flare and what to expect...
VIDEO
The X-class flare can disrupt radio and navigation immediately. The larger risk comes from the expected CME in the coming days, which can trigger geomagnetic storms that affect power grids, satellites, aviation, and the modern economy built on chips and data centers.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 01/18/2026 - 22:45 Close
Mon, 19 Jan 2026 03:10:00 +0000 Venezuela, Silver And Greenland: How The U.S.-China Power Split Is Reshaping the World
Venezuela, Silver And Greenland: How The U.S.-China Power Split Is Reshaping the World
Submitted by Thomas Kolbe
America’s intervention in Venezuela is just days old, and the world seems unable to settle. Th
Read more.....
Venezuela, Silver And Greenland: How The U.S.-China Power Split Is Reshaping the World
Submitted by Thomas Kolbe
America’s intervention in Venezuela is just days old, and the world seems unable to settle. The heated debate over Greenland’s future overshadows the main thread of a new world order emerging—one that is being decided between the U.S. and China . Europe, for now, is relegated to the role of a progressively anxious bystander.
In recent weeks, much speculation has surrounded the background and consequences of the U.S. intervention in Venezuela on January 3. On the surface, political commentators and mainstream media focus largely on Venezuelan heavy oil’s role and future. And they are right: if the U.S. manages to revive the mostly idle capacities via its domestic production industry—especially through firms like Chevron, ConocoPhillips, and Exxon—a significant geopolitical lever emerges.
This lever primarily reshapes the negotiation matrix and dynamics between Washington and Beijing . China requires this oil for its maritime expansion; the U.S., in turn, for refining capacity in the southern states, particularly Texas. Controlling exports to China could strengthen America’s negotiating position on rare earths—a pressure point China has repeatedly wielded, even against European companies. Potentially, the U.S. could also pressure Beijing and curb the subsidized Chinese export machine. These are substantial arguments on the path to U.S. reindustrialization.
Simultaneously, discussions suggest the U.S. government’s core aim is to push back Chinese influence in South American key resource markets—echoing the Monroe Doctrine. China’s response to Nicolás Maduro’s detention was surprisingly restrained. Beyond the expected diplomatic protest, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to Beijing drew attention. Canada, as a resource giant, increasingly plays the counterweight to Donald Trump’s administration.
Alberta, Greenland, and the Subtle Shifts
Carney spoke over the weekend of discussions with China’s leadership on a new world order—a multipolar global order no longer centered on the United States. For China, the point was clear: Canada is effectively being pushed out of the U.S. refining business due to the planned reopening of Venezuelan oil fields. Canadian heavy oil is of high interest to China, which must now find alternative markets to counter growing U.S. pressure.
A minor footnote deserves attention: alongside the media frenzy over Greenland—a debate in Europe elevated to a NATO survival question due to the island’s resource wealth and strategic waterways—another discussion is emerging in the U.S. and Canada: the future of Alberta . President Trump has repeatedly referenced this, opening the door to secession speculation. Could a referendum—still speculative—result in Canada losing access to a significant portion of its resources if Albertans vote for independence ? This debate merits close monitoring, as it could offer deep insights into future resource markets and geopolitical control.
Strategic Metal: Silver
Maduro’s detention opens the U.S. potential insight into South American trade relations with China, particularly in resources. Key questions remain: which quantities were transferred outside official trade balances, which resources specifically, and to what extent were U.S. sanctions circumvented? These factors will likely play a decisive role in the coming years as the global economy decouples.
If it turns out that Venezuela exported strategically important resources like silver to China in significant amounts, the U.S. could now fundamentally alter the dynamics of the global resource order. The core question arises: was the American intervention really only about Venezuelan heavy oil?
Last summer, the U.S. officially declared silver a strategic metal. Since then, silver prices have surged, confirming suspicions that both China and the U.S. are stockpiling heavily. Silver is indispensable for building AI data center infrastructure and electric motors.
There is also a monetary dimension: growing U.S. and Chinese concentration of strategic metals increases pressure on Europe’s currency system. The world increasingly moves toward metal-backed monetary systems, with central banks hoarding for balance-sheet stability. Metals are gaining global weight as a stabilizing economic and financial foundation.
China now enforces a comparatively strict silver export regime. Industrial demand is expected to rise sharply in coming years, making questions about Venezuela’s actual resource flows crucial—far beyond oil.
Control of key sea routes, systematic displacement of Chinese presence in the Panama Canal and U.S. West Coast ports, and securing access to strategic resources—including Greenland—regardless of Europe’s stance, are elements of a broader strategy. The U.S. is forcing a bifurcation: a geopolitical division into two spheres of influence—U.S. and Chinese.
This split has been decades in the making, accelerated by China’s rise. Historically, it is hard to halt without risking major military conflict. Coordination between the U.S. and China in this economic decoupling is key to minimizing conflict.
Bifurcation of World Order
The U.S. is determined to consolidate its role in the Western Hemisphere and—likely in coordination with Beijing and Moscow—gradually retreat into its self-defined power zone. This is not weakness but strategic calculation in a fragmented world order.
Regarding the so-called Greenland crisis: the EU plays no real role in the global resource scramble. European states import roughly 60% of their energy. The failed attempt to secure resources from Russia via regime change and a defeat in Ukraine highlights the EU’s geopolitical impotence .
Deploying a small European force to Greenland to limit U.S. influence underscores Europe-U.S. tensions. Trump responded by raising tariffs by 10%, threatening 25% if Europe’s stance did not change—revealing the stark asymmetry of power. Brussels appears as a paper giant .
Given this imbalance, Europe’s failure to forge a political alliance to adopt a cooperative U.S. approach is puzzling. Brussels and London opt for confrontation, a path likely leading to further economic losses. Europe’s strength lies in aligning with U.S. market regimes, abandoning hidden climate protectionism, and activating its robust domestic market. Geopolitically, the fight is lost, only recoverable via sensible economic policy.
Attempts via Mercosur to secure trade leeway in South America have been underwhelming. The agreement largely enforces Brussels’ climate regulations, already straining European business, leaving true free trade as distant as ever.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 01/18/2026 - 22:10 Close
Mon, 19 Jan 2026 02:35:00 +0000 One Chart Says Time To Reload On This Commodity
One Chart Says Time To Reload On This Commodity
The precious metals landscape in recent times has been nothing short of record-breaking. New highs in gold and silver, but some of that momentum has been blown off on Thursday after a
Read more.....
One Chart Says Time To Reload On This Commodity
The precious metals landscape in recent times has been nothing short of record-breaking. New highs in gold and silver, but some of that momentum has been blown off on Thursday after a softer tone from President Trump on Iran eased safe-haven demand. Platinum, palladium, and other metals, such as copper, also cooled today, but one strategic commodity has yet to move higher in the metals bull run.
That one strategic commodity that has yet to break out from multi-year lows is ammunition.
It's a consumable input to military power, law enforcement capability, and civilian deterrence, and remains deeply depressed relative to the broader hard-asset complex.
The ammunition industry remains stuck in a multi-year glut because of overproduction runs from the Covid period , when firearm and ammo demand went through the roof because the Democratic Party's dark-money NGOs unleashed protest and riots nationwide, and in some cases, burned entire city blocks down.
Los Angeles Riots 2025, Marxists Burn Waymos
Now, with renewed left-wing chaos emerging in Minneapolis and a clearer understanding of how violence is used as a political pressure against the Trump administration by unhinged left-wing activists, the setup becomes even clearer. Elevated social unrest risk is returning - all other metals are much higher, but ammunition prices for the most common round in America, 9mm, remain depressed around 20 cents per round.
Ammunition checks every box for why it's a strategic commodity: it only becomes valuable when chaos erupts or supplies are threatened.
It's probably time to reload.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 01/18/2026 - 21:35 Close
Mon, 19 Jan 2026 02:00:00 +0000 Americans Report Surging Spirituality: 43% Say Faith Has Grown Amid National Revival
Americans Report Surging Spirituality: 43% Say Faith Has Grown Amid National Revival
Americans Report Surging Spirituality: 43% Say Faith Has Grown Amid National Revival
Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,
Fresh data shows that 43 percent of U.S. adults have grown more spiritual over their lives, compared to just 11 percent who say they’ve become less so. This shift highlights a broader rejection of the moral vacuum left by ‘progressive’ policies, with Americans of all ages leaning into deeper faith as society grapples with division and decay.
Large majorities cling to core beliefs: 86 percent affirm the existence of a soul, 83 percent believe in God or a universal spirit, 79 percent sense something spiritual beyond the natural world, and 70 percent expect an afterlife.
These numbers, drawn from a Pew Research Center survey , underscore a resilient spiritual foundation that defies the left’s attempts to dismantle traditional values .
You will find more infographics at Statista
“The long-term decline in Christian affiliation in the United States appears to be leveling off, at least for now,” according to the analysis, with Christian identification stabilizing around 63 percent after years of erosion.
The religiously unaffiliated—atheists, agnostics, and “nones”—have plateaued at about 28 percent, halting their expansion.
This stabilization mirrors a massive resurgence in Christianity, with recent data revealing Bible sales skyrocketing by 41.6 percent since 2022, reaching 14.2 million copies in 2023 and 13.7 million in the first ten months of 2024—far outpacing the stagnant overall book market.
Religion and spirituality app downloads exploded by 79.5 percent since 2019, with tools like YouVersion Bible and Hallow drawing users for Scripture, prayer, and meditation. Contemporary Christian music streams on Spotify jumped 50 percent in the same period, boosted by artists like Forrest Frank, Brandon Lake, and Elevation Worship.
This momentum is fueled by young people, especially Gen Z, showing heightened curiosity about Jesus and the Bible per the American Bible Society’s 2024 “State of the Bible” survey. Young men, in particular, are seeking the structure and community faith provides amid uncertainty.
The assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk amplified this trend last year, sparking reports of overflowing churches and mass baptisms.
Religious leaders point to a spiritual awakening, where Americans turn to faith for answers amid political upheaval and social chaos.
This spiritual uptick also echoes President Trump’s vision to restore faith. Speaking at the National Prayer Breakfast last year, Trump declared, “We have to bring religion back.”
He elaborated: “From the earliest days of our republic, faith in God has been the ultimate source of strength that beats in the hearts of our nation.” Urging a stronger return, he added, “We have to bring [religion] back much stronger. It’s one of the biggest problems that we’ve had over the last fairly long period of time. We have to bring it back.”
Trump’s own renewed faith, post-assassination attempt, resonates deeply: “It changed something in me. I feel even stronger. I believed in God, but I feel much more strongly about it.” He credited divine intervention for his survival.
Emphasizing faith’s role in happiness, Trump stated, “I really believe you can’t be happy without religion, without that belief, I really believe that. I just don’t see how you can be.”
Trump’s message aligns with the data: younger adults report decreased religiousness over time (more so than increased), but older ones see growth—yet spirituality overall trends upward across ages.
As excessive woke ideology crumbles, Americans are reclaiming their spiritual heritage, turning to faith, the ultimate safeguard for liberty and moral clarity.
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Tyler Durden
Sun, 01/18/2026 - 21:00 Close
Mon, 19 Jan 2026 01:25:00 +0000 Housing Market's Deep Freeze May Finally Begin To Thaw
Housing Market's Deep Freeze May Finally Begin To Thaw
Realtors, mortgage lenders, and other industry professionals: if three years of depressed transaction activity have you thinking about exiting, it may be worth holding that thou
Read more.....
Housing Market's Deep Freeze May Finally Begin To Thaw
Realtors, mortgage lenders, and other industry professionals: if three years of depressed transaction activity have you thinking about exiting, it may be worth holding that thought for now. A new Goldman note suggests that policy maneuvering by the Trump administration could partially unfreeze the housing market in the upcoming selling season, potentially reviving some activity.
The Trump administration is attempting to unfreeze a housing market paralyzed by elevated mortgage rates and high home prices, which have pushed affordability to generational lows.
Goldman analyst Arun Manohar penned a note on Wednesday asking clients: All hands on deck to fix US housing affordability?
Manohar highlighted several key housing policies under the Trump administration: a recently announced $200 billion MBS purchase program aimed at lowering mortgage rates, a proposed ban on institutional investors buying single-family homes, and additional measures designed to reduce the cost of homeownership.
Here's the note:
Affordability, particularly in the context of housing, has recently been a central focus for the Trump administration. In a national televised address delivered in December, the President announced forthcoming plans which he described as "the most aggressive housing reform plans in American history." According to media reports, President Trump is expected to introduce several initiatives aimed at enhancing housing affordability during his upcoming speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos. To date, two policies have been previewed, each of which has already had market moving impacts. In today’s Global Markets Daily, we discuss the impact of recently introduced policies and outline additional measures that may be under consideration.
GSE MBS purchase program has already pushed mortgage rates lower by 15bp
On January 8th, President Trump posted on social media that he has instructed his representatives to buy $200 billion of mortgage bonds. Subsequently, Director Pulte and Secretary Bessent have essentially confirmed that the buying is being carried out by the government sponsored enterprises (GSEs) – Fannie and Freddie. Although very limited details about the program are available so far, the agency MBS market has quickly priced in the program with production coupon spreads tightening around 14-15bp so far. We believe the spread tightening so far is consistent with a program of this magnitude and hence believe that it is fully priced-in. Mortgage rates have also declined in tandem and are now close to the lowest levels since September 2022 (Exhibit 1). This should improve affordability and improve sentiment in the housing market ahead of the key spring homebuying season. We believe that the cumulative decline of around 80bp in mortgage rates since June 2025 could boost existing home sales by at least 5-7% in 2026 vs. 2025. Moreover, it is possible that the administration could push new Fed leadership to provide additional support to housing by reinvesting monthly run-offs from the Fed’s portfolio back into MBS. However, as we noted recently, if the $200 billion purchase program is a one-off, and there are no other MBS purchase programs from the GSEs/Fed/Treasury, then MBS spreads are likely to end the year wider vs. current levels. Agency MBS nominal spreads are already tighter vs. their longer-term average, and OASs are at levels last observed during the Fed’s QE purchase program (Exhibit 2). Therefore, the key risk for the housing market is that the decline in mortgage rates over the past two days reverses by the end of the year.
Proposed ban on institutional investors from purchasing single family homes
The other major housing policy announcement from last week was President Trump’s intention to ban institutional investors from buying single-family homes. While the goal of this policy is to reduce competition from institutions and increase supply/reduce prices for individuals, we believe the national impact will be quite small. In aggregate, industry estimates show that institutional investors own less than 0.5% of total housing stock and around 2-3% of rental housing stock (Exhibit 3). Estimates from Cotality show that institutions owning 100+ units account for about 5% of recent home purchase activity. The rental housing market is largely dominated by smaller investors, who own around 79% of the total rental units. The impact could be slightly larger in some of the sunbelt metros where institutional investors have a greater presence. As prices of existing homes have soared in recent years, large single-family rental (SFR) operators have shifted towards built-to-rent homes, where they have better control over unit economics, rather than buying homes from MLS. These homebuilding operations provide much-needed supply, and we believe will not be included in any potential institutional purchase ban. Built-to-rent home volumes have averaged approximately 15k per quarter over the past year. Finally, Secretary Bessent spoke about the institutional SFR ban during an interview at the Economic Club of Minnesota last week and his comments suggest that the institutional SFR ban would not apply retroactively. While we need to see the actual language when and if Congress approves the legislation, it appears the administration would be comfortable with institutional SFR operators retaining the properties they already own. This removes a major headwind to the housing market.
Related:
Whether the Trump administration can solve the U.S. housing affordability crisis, which largely emerged during the Bidenomics era, remains an open question. Lower mortgage rates would clearly provide a tailwind as the selling season typically begins in late February or early March, when buyers reemerge after winter, weather conditions improve, and house-hunting activity accelerates. As for the 50-year mortgage rate idea, that Trump administration proposal appears to have been shelved for now.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 01/18/2026 - 20:25 Close
Mon, 19 Jan 2026 00:50:00 +0000 Face Reality: Two-Party Politics Has Failed!
Face Reality: Two-Party Politics Has Failed!
Face Reality: Two-Party Politics Has Failed!
Authored by John Halpin via The Liberal Patriot ,
National Politics Is A Graveyard
It’s time to face reality: two-party politics has failed. Americans want more and better choices than the ones Republicans and Democrats currently provide. Whether the two-party system stands or gets radically transformed in the future remains an open question, however.
As reported by Gallup, a record-high percentage of American adults at the end of 2025 self-identified as political independents , 45 percent, including majorities of both millennials and Generation Z plus a plurality of Generation X. In comparison, less than three in ten Americans self-identified as either a Republican or a Democrat in 2025, respectively.
People who cling to a fading notion of partisanship often assert that political independence is a youthful phase and that people’s party affinities deepen with age. While this may have been true in the past, Gallup’s numbers challenge the notion going forward—political independence tops partisan identification among every age cohort born from 1965 on.
The recent increase in independent identification is partly attributable to younger generations of Americans (millennials and Generation X) continuing to identify as independents at relatively high rates as they have gotten older . In contrast, older generations of Americans have been less likely to identify as independents over time. Generation Z, like previous generations before them when they were young, identify disproportionately as political independents.
As political independence increases steadily, the desire for a major third party has also climbed . Sixty-two percent of American adults in 2025 said that a new party is needed compared to only three in ten adults who feel that the “Republican and Democratic parties do an adequate job of representing the American people.” In contrast, 56 percent of U.S. adults felt the two parties adequately represented Americans in 2003.
The desire for a third party makes sense when you examine the sharp declines in public favorability towards both Republicans and Democrats. In the early 2000s, more than six in ten Americans held a favorable opinion of both parties at some point. By the end of 2025, only four in ten felt favorably about Republicans, and only 37 percent felt that way about Democrats.
If you look at the trajectories of the last three presidential terms, Trump-Biden-Trump, you can see how disdain for partisanship plays out. In each instance, the incumbent party’s president lost overall public support rapidly as independent supporters sided with the opposition against the incumbent, leading to frequent switches in party control of both the Congress and the presidency. Trump and Republicans came into office in 2017 with unified control of government only to lose the House in 2018 and both the presidency and Senate after the 2020 election. Biden came into office in 2021 with unified control of Congress and promptly lost the House in 2022, and then Democrats lost both the presidency and the Senate in 2024. Trump again started his second term with unified control of government yet looks on track to at least lose the House in 2026.
Who knows what will happen in 2028 at the end of the Trump era? Stability seems unlikely, however.
Neither party seems capable of building nor sustaining durable national majorities. Republican and Democratic leaders and their policy programs are widely disliked by both political opponents and many independents, as they each pursue purely partisan objectives when in power that further polarize and alienate the electorate. Since voters are essentially forced to choose between two failed parties every cycle, the system chugs along with Americans growing increasingly cynical about government and politics.
But if voters were offered an option beyond the two major parties, many Americans would gladly take it up.
Given the amount of money and anger floating around politics today, it’s genuinely puzzling why a viable third party has not started. Of course, with the stranglehold of Republicans and Democrats over election laws and regulations, third parties face enormous hurdles. Likewise, except for Libertarians, third parties tend to organize around mercurial figures like Ross Perot, RFK Jr., or Elon Musk rather than around a concrete set of ideas or a coalition of voting blocs united behind a common purpose pursued over time.
Perhaps the viability of third parties will change in the not-too-distant future. For example, one could imagine a mostly moderate, pro-business, anti-deficit, anti-culture war party emerging to appeal to disgruntled centrists. Perhaps an old-school conservative party might rise to attract ex-Republicans who dislike Trump’s transformations of the GOP, or perhaps a truly social-democratic, pro-labor party could bring together working-class ex-Democrats who disagree with the party’s cultural and economic turn. One could also imagine two fiery left- or right-populist parties cropping up separately (or combined) to challenge the two-party duopoly.
For any of these third parties to have a chance, however, America first needs a strong independent movement dedicated to changing state and federal laws that enshrine two-party politics. As Jesse Wegman and Lee Drutman argue , this means a switch from winner-take-all to proportional representation in national legislative elections, with the creation of multimember districts and the elimination of partisan gerrymandering (and U.S. Senate and presidential elections remaining constitutionally the same).
Proportional representation models vary by country, but basically all of them create a situation where political parties get legislative seats based on the percentage of the vote they receive in a given election, thus encouraging and rewarding multiparty competition. In the American House of Representatives under this scenario, you could hypothetically vote for the populist-right Patriot Party, the centrist Liberal Party, the enviro Greens, or the Christian conservative Family Party, and each would get seats if they meet certain thresholds of support. The House, in turn, would be required to form some coalition of parties to enact laws to send to their Senate counterparts and eventually the president, who would also have to work with more than his own party and the traditional opposition to get things done.
It’s not a perfect system and potentially creates its own problems with stability. But a politics based on proportional representation would certainly meet the American public where they are in terms of their own often complicated views and the limited party choices they get every election cycle.
Change of this nature would require sitting or future members of both parties voting to reform state and federal election laws to allow for proportional representation in the House. America does not need to become a parliamentary democracy to do this or go through elaborate constitutional amendments. Reformers just need some willpower and solid organization to overcome partisan strong-arming and resistance to change.
At some point, a dedicated group of independents and like-minded members of the two parties need to put their heads together, with serious philanthropic backing, to develop a real movement to create proportional representation in America—with policy designs, model legislation, federal and state lobbying efforts, and public communications and voter outreach.
This is a tall order, for sure, but not impossible given the rising public hatred of existing partisanship and politicians themselves seeing the writing on the wall about dysfunctional government. The U.S. Constitution does not mandate a two-party system. Legislative elections can be changed to support multiple parties if Americans and a new generation of leaders choose to do so. Any takers?
Tyler Durden
Sun, 01/18/2026 - 19:50 Close
Sun, 18 Jan 2026 23:40:00 +0000 Catch-Up Contributions: Maximizing Your Savings If You're Over 50 In 2026 And Beyond
Catch-Up Contributions: Maximizing Your Savings If You're Over 50 In 2026 And Beyond
Catch-Up Contributions: Maximizing Your Savings If You're Over 50 In 2026 And Beyond
Authored by John Rampton Via The Epoch Times ,
If you’re over 50 and feel behind on retirement savings, you’re not alone—and you’re not out of options. There is a powerful tool that the government provides to help you close the gap: catch-up contributions.
Ground Picture/Shutterstock
This extra contribution is designed to help older workers boost their retirement savings during their peak earning years. Its importance has never been greater than it is today because of rising inflation, higher living costs, and longer life expectancies. In addition, the SECURE 2.0 Act (SECURE refers to Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement) has added more opportunities by 2025, especially for those between the ages of 60 and 63.
Let’s take a look at what’s new, how much you can contribute, and what the updates mean for your retirement plan.
Why Catch-Up Contributions Matter
It is a struggle for many Americans to save enough for retirement. For people 55–64, the median retirement savings are $185,000 , which is much lower than the $1.26 million “magic number.”
A catch-up contribution gives you a chance to make up for lost time . If you started saving late, took time off work, or simply couldn’t save as much as you hoped, these contributions let you go beyond 401(k) and 403(b) limits.
With the average life expectancy now in its 80s, a larger nest egg allows you to maintain your lifestyle, cover healthcare expenses, and reduce financial stress as you age.
Standard Catch-Up Contribution Rules
The Internal Revenue Service allows you to contribute more to your retirement accounts if you’re over 50.
401(k), 403(b), and similar plans. In 2025, you can contribute an additional $7,500.
Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs) (Traditional or Roth). An additional $1,000 can be added each year.
If you’re over 50, you could contribute up to $31,000 to your 401(k) and $8,000 to your IRA in 2025, assuming you have the income and plan flexibility.
In addition to boosting your savings, pre-tax contributions can also cut your taxable income or boost tax-free retirement income—if contributions are made to a Roth.
What’s New in 2025: Key Retirement Contribution Limits
Always check your plan details with your employer or plan administrator, as contribution limits and eligibility may vary.
Standard Workplace Plan Limits
Employee deferral limit. The maximum amount for 2025 is $23,500.
Standard catch-up (Age over 50). For those 50 or older, an additional $7,500 can be contributed, bringing the total to $31,000.
SECURE 2.0 ‘Super Catch-Up’
As a result of SECURE 2.0 , retirees will experience a powerful—but temporary—boost.
Who qualifies? Employees aged 60, 61, 62, or 63 in 2025.
Limit. There is an enhanced catch-up of up to $11,250—the greater of $10,000 or 150 percent of the standard $7,500 limit.
Total potential contribution. It’s possible to defer up to $34,750 in 2025, including $23,500 in standard deferral and $11,250 in super catch-up, if your plan allows it.
Action step. Employers have the option of using this feature. Be sure to check with your HR department or plan administrator to confirm participation.
This “super catch-up” gives late-career savers a rare chance to supercharge their savings in the final years before retirement.
IRA Contribution Limits (Traditional & Roth)
Standard IRA limit. The same as last year.
Catch-up (Age over 50). Those 50 and older can contribute an additional $1,000, bringing the total contribution to $8,000.
Even if you’re contributing to a workplace plan, adding to an IRA can increase your investment options and tax savings.
Mandatory Roth Catch-Up for High Earners
Some older workers will soon be able to make catch-up contributions under a new rule called SECURE 2.0.
Who is Affected. Participants aged 50 or older and who earned more than $145,000 in Federal Insurance Contributions Act (FICA) wages from the employer in the previous calendar year.
The Rule. Catch-up contributions must be made on an after-tax Roth basis. Pre-tax catch-up contributions will no longer be an option for this group.
Who is Exempt. Individuals earning $145,000 or less, or those contributing only to IRAs/SIMPLE (savings incentive match plan for employees) IRAs.
Ultimately, starting in 2026, high earners aged over 50 will pay taxes on their catch-up contributions upfront (Roth), but can withdraw their money in retirement tax-free. If their plans offer it, all other eligible employees can continue to choose between pre-tax and Roth options.
How to Think About This Emotionally
Behavior isn’t driven by numbers alone—it’s driven by feelings. For you to make this real, here are a few mindset pivots:
From “Am I too late?” to “I’m on the home stretch and I can sprint.” You may not have decades ahead of you, but you do have years—and that can translate into meaningful savings.
From “I can’t make up for lost time” to “Let’s make the next 10–15 years count.” Rather than lamenting what you missed, think about what you can still gain. You can use this catch-up window to your advantage.
From “Retirement is far away” to “Every dollar now has more impact.” The later you start, the greater the impact of every incremental dollar saved. In other words, boosting contributions is not optional—it’s strategic.
From “Saving is painful” to “Saving is freedom.” The more you contribute, the fewer worries you’ll have later on. In the long run, it’s more about peace than immediate sacrifice.
How to Make Catch-Up Contributions Work for You
For those numbers to become results, here are some actionable steps:
Confirm Your Plan Allows for Catch-Ups
There is no guarantee that your plan will provide it just because you are over 50. If you are unsure of your plan’s details, check with HR or benefits. There must be a provision for catch-up contributions in the plan.
Decide Whether to Use Pre-Tax or Roth
If your retirement plan allows Roth contributions, consider your tax strategies: paying tax now versus paying tax later. Beginning in 2026, high earners may be required to follow Roth catch-up rules. In other words, this is a strategic moment.
Automate Your Contributions
Be sure to set your payroll deferral to capture the full limit, or as much as you can comfortably afford. As a result, decision fatigue and “out of sight, out of mind” barriers are removed.
Prioritize if Balancing Other Needs
Depending on how you balance savings, debt, and lifestyle costs, you may not reach the full catch-up limit at once. That’s okay. Decide what you can contribute now and then increase it incrementally.
Pair This With the Broader Retirement Plan
While catch-up contributions alone cannot guarantee retirement success, they can certainly enhance it. In addition to asset allocation, spending targets, withdrawal strategies, and other late-career considerations, make sure you consider other factors as well.
Work Until You’re Ready
Adding a working year increases savings, contributions, compound growth, and reduces the number of years of drawdown. With the right health and circumstances, staying in the workforce longer can be a perfect combination with catch-up strategies.
Watch-Outs and Potential Pitfalls
Catch-ups have caveats, as with anything:
Plan limitations. Your employer should allow catch-ups and super catch-up contributions if you fall into the 60–63 bracket. But it is possible that some plans will not implement these new limits right away.
Tax-treatment shifts. Beginning in 2026, many high earners will have to make catch-up contributions as Roth contributions (losing the upfront deduction). As a result, there is less immediate tax benefit through future tax-free growth.
Cash-flow and lifestyle trade-offs. Increasing contributions means less take-home pay. If you over-stretch, you may feel deprived or be stressed about your finances. Balance is key.
Not substituting for a full retirement plan. Contributions are powerful, but you also need to address spending habits, investment risk, and withdrawal strategies. In other words, don’t think of catch-ups as a magic wand.
Over-reliance on employer plans. When you change jobs, your employer’s match, vesting, or plan rules may change. Be flexible and adapt your strategy as needed.
The Emotional Payoff: Why It’s Worth It
As you shift your mindset from “I’m behind” to “I’m catching up smartly,” several emotional changes occur:
Less anxiety about “being too old to save.” It’s a matter of actively using your advantages.
By maximizing every available lever, you’ll have more confidence in your retirement horizon.
More control over your retirement narrative rather than resigning to “We’ll see what happens.”
Being proactive now instead of waiting and worrying later gives you more peace of mind.
Yes, it feels good to know that you are going the extra mile. Compound growth, tax savings, and emotional resilience are all benefits of that “something extra.”
Final Thoughts
If you’re over 50 and working, don’t miss out on catch-up contributions. In 2025, you have the opportunity to boost your savings, close gaps, and reshape your retirement outlook. In certain plans, $31,000 is available (or up to $34,750 if you are 60-63) in total. Keep in mind that you still have time, you can still act, and you can still make meaningful progress.
As you move forward, make sure you check your plan’s specifics, choose pre-tax vs Roth, automate, balance lifestyle, and integrate into your larger retirement plan. By doing so, you won’t just increase your savings—you’ll change your perception of your financial future, too. In many instances, how you feel is crucial to a successful retirement.
So, let’s close the gap, own the next chapter, and make every contribution count.
By John Rampton
The views and opinions expressed are those of the authors. They are meant for general informational purposes only and should not be construed or interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation. The Epoch Times does not provide investment, tax, legal, financial planning, estate planning, or any other personal finance advice. The Epoch Times holds no liability for the accuracy or timeliness of the information provided.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 01/18/2026 - 18:40 Close
Sun, 18 Jan 2026 22:30:00 +0000 Trump To Unveil Plan Allowing Homebuyers To Use 401(k) Funds For Down Payments
Trump To Unveil Plan Allowing Homebuyers To Use 401(k) Funds For Down Payments
Trump To Unveil Plan Allowing Homebuyers To Use 401(k) Funds For Down Payments
Authored by Emel Akan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
President Donald Trump will unveil a plan next week that would allow Americans to withdraw funds from their 401(k) accounts to use for a home down payment.
A for-sale sign is posted in front of a home in Las Vegas, Nev., on Aug. 8, 2025. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett announced the plan during an interview with Fox Business on Jan. 16, adding that the details of the proposal are still being finalized.
He said Trump will announce the final plan in Davos next week.
“The Fed lifted interest rates so much that mortgage rates went through the roof,” Hassett said.
He pointed out that the average monthly payment for a typical family buying a home has nearly doubled , and the down payment required had risen from about $15,000 to around $32,000 during the Biden administration.
Hassett stated that significant progress is needed to address the housing affordability problem, and the latest plan is one of many policies introduced by the president to help achieve this goal.
“We’re still talking about the mechanics of it ,” he said.
Hassett explained that homeowners could put 10 percent of their home’s equity into a 401(k) plan, and as the home’s value goes up, the 401(k) would grow too. This approach, he said, could provide more funds for retirement, solve liquidity constraints, and make it easier to buy a house earlier in life.
In recent weeks, the Trump administration has introduced a range of proposals to help more Americans achieve homeownership, including bringing down mortgage rates and banning large institutional investors from buying additional residential homes.
In a Jan. 8 Truth Social post , Trump directed the purchase of $200 billion in mortgage bonds to help reduce interest rates.
“This will drive Mortgage Rates down, monthly payments down, and make the cost of owning a home more affordable ,” Trump wrote.
On Jan. 7, Trump also announced that he’s taking steps to bar large investors from purchasing more single-family homes, and said he would urge Congress to codify it.
Institutional investors are defined as companies owning 1,000 or more properties. Blackstone is considered the largest private-equity owner of U.S. apartments, with more than 230,000 units, according to data from the Private Equity Stakeholder Project as of April 2025.
Affordability of homeownership has become a growing concern, especially for first-time buyers.
Since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, housing costs rocketed, with median home prices rising 55 percent and rents surging more than 35 percent nationwide.
Borrowing costs also shot up in 2022 after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to combat inflation.
The American Dream is out of reach, especially for many young people. The typical age of first-time buyers climbed to 40 in 2025, the highest on record and up from 31 in 2014, according to a report by The Center for American Progress.
Andrew Moran and Jack Phillips contributed to this report.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 01/18/2026 - 17:30 Close