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Stock futures rise as investors look ahead to Friday’s release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE, a reading that may help shape next week’s rate outlook as the BoJ charts its own divergent policy course. As of *;15am ET, S&P 500 futures were 0.2% higher and on pace for the 9th gain in 10 days; Nasdaq 100 futures are +0.3% as Mag 7 names are mostly higher premarket, led by META (+0.6%), AMZN (+0.5%) and NVDA (+0.5%). Tech sentiment got a boost after Nvidia partner Hon Hai Precision Industry reported strong sales. Moore Threads, a leading Chinese AI chipmaker, jumped 425% in its Shanghai trading debut. Netflix meanwhile, fell in the premarket after agreeing a tie-up with Warner Bros, acquiring HBO. Bond yields are modestly higher; the USD is flat. Commodities are mixed: oil and base metals are lower, while precious metals are higher. US economic calendar includes September personal income/spending and PCE inflation gauges and December preliminary University of Michigan sentiment (10am New York time) and October consumer credit (3pm

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher (Meta +0.5%, Nvidia +0.4%, Alphabet +0.4%, Microsoft +0.3%, Amazon +0.4%, Tesla unchanged, Apple unchanged).

• Cooper Cos (COO) rises 13% after the health-care company’s guidance for 2026 adjusted earnings per share topped the average analyst estimate. The company also launched a strategic review.
• Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. (HPE) drops 8% after the company gave an outlook for sales in the current quarter that fell short of high expectations for the AI server business.
• ITT Inc. (ITT) slips 2% after agreeing to acquire industrial equipment manufacturer SPX Flow Inc. from Lone Star Funds in a $4.775 billion cash and stock deal.
• Netflix (NFLX) slips 1.3% after agreeing to buy Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. in a historic combination, joining the world’s dominant paid streaming service with one of Hollywood’s oldest and most revered studios. Shares of Warner Bros. (WBD) are up 1.5%.
• Parsons (PSN) tumbles 15% after the US Federal Aviation Administration and the Department of Transportation awarded the Brand New Air Traffic Control System contract to Peraton.
• Rubrik (RBRK) rallies 18% after the cybersecurity firm raised its revenue forecast for 2026 while narrowing its view for adjusted losses per share.
• SentinelOne (S) falls 8% after the software firm’s fourth-quarter outlook missed expectations. It also initiated a search for a new chief financial officer.
• SoFi Technologies (SOFI) is down 7% after the online lender’s offering of 54.5m shares.
• Ulta Beauty Inc. (ULTA) rises 6% after raising its full-year outlook and reporting better-than-expected results in the third quarter, a sign that consumers are overcoming any reluctance to spend and shelling out for cosmetics and hair supplies.
• Victoria’s Secret (VSCO) climbs 12% after the company reported better-than-expected sales and lifted its outlook for the year, a sign that its turnaround strategy is working.

In corporate news, Perplexity AI says billionaire Cristiano Ronaldo has become an investor. Cloudflare is investigating issues with dashboard and related APIs.

Futures on the US benchmark rose on Friday after the index closed within 0.5% of a fresh record. The gauge is set for its first back-to-back weekly gain since October, signaling that traders are shaking off recent jitters over valuations and the lack of visibility on the economy during the government shutdown. Yet in a notable change from recent trends, tech hasn’t led the recent rally, and with sector participation broadening, the market’s advance may continue - even as the economic data underpinning the move exhibits a “split screen,” with non-jobs data surprising to the upside.

With a rate cut next week largely priced in and bets pointing to further easing into 2026, investors are gearing up for a year-end rally in what is typically a supportive month for stocks. Growing confidence that the US economy remains resilient, despite softer employment, is also prompting rotations into stocks that tend to benefit from domestic strength.

"Santa will bring presents for everybody, toys for the kids and gains for investors,” said Stephan Kemper, chief investment strategist at BNP Paribas Wealth Management. “Apart from the regular seasonality there are plenty of other reasons supporting the market: rate cuts and ongoing M&A activity are some of them.”

Bloomberg Economics Chief Economist Tom Orlik expects a dovish Fed to cut rates another 100 basis points in 2026, adding support to the AI investment upswing. A bonfire of regulations will also stoke growth and together with gradual price pass-through from tariffs, these factors will keep inflation above target. Kevin Hassett said the Fed should cut rates next week and said he wanted to “get to a much lower rate” over the long run.

Later on Friday, markets will a get a dated reading on the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. The figures will include the personal consumption expenditures price index and a core measure that excludes food and energy. Economist project a third-straight 0.2% increase in the core index for September. That would keep the year-over-year figure hovering a little below 3%, a sign that inflationary pressures are stable, yet sticky.

While the data is unlikely to derail a December rate cut, it “may change the tone from Chairman Powell,” said Wolf von Rotberg, equity strategist at Bank J Safra Sarasin. “If he emphasizes inflation risks in his press conference, markets may reprice the rate trajectory for 2026, thereby increasing the pressure on the long end of the curve and on equity market valuations.”

BofA strategist Michael Hartnett notes bond vigilantes have effectively become the new regulators of AI capex. 
Nvidia partner Hon Hai reported a 26% sales jump in November, suggesting robust demand for AI servers amid a broader development boom. Moore Threads Technology, a leading Chinese AI chipmaker, jumped 425% in its Shanghai trading debut after raising 8 billion yuan ($1.13 billion).

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is up 0.3%, rising for a fourth day and hitting a three-week high in the process. Financial services, autos and construction are leading gains while energy is a drag after downgrades in the sector from JPMorgan.  Here are some of the biggest movers on Friday:

• UCB shares jump as much as 8.2% after the Belgian biopharma company lifted its guidance for the full year.
• Renk rises as much as 5.7% as Bank of America double upgrades the shares to buy, citing an attractive valuation.
• Ocado shares rise as much as 16% after the online grocer said it will receive a $350 million cash payment from Kroger to compensate for the US grocer’s decision to close three automated warehouses and to not go ahead with another.
• Trustpilot shares jump as much as 11% after Morgan Stanley raised the stock to overweight a day after the stock was targeted by short seller Grizzly Research, saying the company’s user reviews hold unique value against increasing content from generative AI.
• Swiss Re drops as much as 7.6% after announcing targets for 2026, with analysts seeing both the buyback and group net income guidance as “underwhelming.”
• Big Yellow Group shares drop as much as 6% after talks about a possible takeover offer from Blackstone collapsed.
• Baltic Classifieds shares drop as much as 5.1% after analysts cut their price target on the online platform.
• OVH Groupe shares drop as much as 15% after an investor offloaded shares in the IT services company at a discount to yesterday’s close.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks reversed earlier losses as investors await key US economic data later Friday. Japan markets closed lower amid profit-taking following strong gains in the previous session. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.3%, boosted by TSMC, Samsung Electronics and SoftBank Group. The gauge is on track for a second straight week of gains. Shares advanced in India after the central bank cut interest rate and signaled an openness for further easing. Benchmarks in Japan fell more than 1%. Chinese chipmakers are coming into focus, with Moore Threads surging 425% in its Shanghai trading debut after raising 8 billion yuan ($1.13 billion), the second-largest onshore IPO of the year. Elsewhere in the region, Philippine inflation slowed in November, supporting another cut in benchmark interest rates as a graft scandal shattered consumer and investor confidence. Markets were closed in Thailand. 

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls 0.1%. The yen is lower, having erased an earlier gain of 0.5%, seen after Bloomberg reported reported Bank of Japan officials are ready to raise interest rates at a policy meeting later this month. The Aussie is leading gains against the greenback, up 0.4%.

In rates, treasuries drop across the curve, following similar price action across European bonds in the wake of strong October German factory orders and French industrial production data. Treasury long-end yields are about 1.5bp higher on the day, steepening curve spreads by less than a basis point. US 10-year yield is near 4.11%, about 1bp cheaper on the day, broadly in line with bunds and gilts. Focal points of US session include PCE inflation gauge derived from September personal income and spending data, in release delayed by last month’s US government shutdown. IG dollar bond issuance slate is blank so far after just one offering was priced Thursday, however $26 billion was priced over the first three days of this week by 23 issuers — one of the strongest starts to a December. Treasury auctions resume Monday with $58 billion 3-year new issue, followed by $39 billion 10-year and $22 billion 30-year reopenings Tuesday and Thursday, skipping over Wednesday’s Fed policy announcement.

In commodities, oil prices are steady, with WTI crude futures near $59.50 a barrel. Spot gold rises $18. Bitcoin falls 0.8%. 

Looking to the day ahead now, US data releases include PCE inflation for September, and the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for December, all at 10am ET. We also get German factory orders and French industrial production for October, and Canada’s employment report for November. Finally from central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Villeroy and Lane.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.2%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.4%
• Russell 2000 mini little changed
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.3%
• DAX +0.5%
• CAC 40 +0.3%
• 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.11%
• VIX little changed at 15.75
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1213.14
• euro little changed at $1.1652
• WTI crude -0.2% at $59.53/barrel

Top Overnight News

• A divided Supreme Court cleared Texas to use its new Republican-drawn congressional map for the 2026 midterm election, overruling a lower court order and bolstering GOP hopes of picking up as many as five new House seats in the state. BBG
• The US is prioritizing a stable trade dynamic with China despite a push by some allies for coordinated action against Beijing, USTR Jamieson Greer said. BBG
• President Trump has issued a new national-security strategy that sharply criticizes the “unrealistic expectations” of European leaders for settling the war in Ukraine and calls for an end to NATO expansion. WSJ
• A bipartisan Senate bill seeks to block Nvidia from shipping advanced AI chips to China. The legislation proposes a 30-month halt on export licenses to US adversaries. BBG
• US Homeland Security Secretary Noem said the Trump administration is expanding the countries on the travel ban to over 30: Fox News.
• BOJ officials are ready to raise the policy rate at this month’s meeting — taking it to its highest level since 1995 — provided there’s no major shocks in the meantime, people familiar said. The yen strengthened. BBG
• China's exports likely returned to growth in November after an unexpected dip in October, as manufacturers rushed to move inventory to take advantage of a fresh tariff truce with the U.S. RTRS
• The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut its key repo rate by 25 basis points on Friday and left the door open for further easing as it took steps to boost banking-sector liquidity by up to $16 billion to support a "goldilocks" economy. RTRS
• The Dutch pensions overhaul looks set to push European nations to sell fewer long-dated bonds. Changes may be announced in coming weeks as governments unveil their 2026 issuance plans. BBG
• Netflix to Acquire Warner Bros. Following the Separation of Discovery Global for a Total Enterprise Value of $82.7 Billion (Equity Value of $72.0 Billion).
• Morgan Stanley forecasts a 25bps Fed cut in December (prev. forecast unchanged). Cuts in January and April 2026, a terminal of 3.00-3.25%.
• Federal Reserve Board announced a new pricing for payment services provided to banks and credit unions, effective 1st January 2026, while Fed's Bowman emphasised the importance of checks as a payment method and said the Fed cannot endorse the RFI regarding the future of check services.

Company News

• Dell (DELL) reportedly plans a price hike of 15-20% from mid-December and Lenovo (992 HK) from January 2026, according to TrendForce, citing sources.
• Cloudflare (NET) announced service issues have been resolved, according to the status page. Following issues that lasted for around 30 minutes.
• Baidu (9888 HK/ BIDU) reportedly weighs a Hong Kong IPO for its AI chip unit Kunlunxin, to rival NVIDIA (NVDA), according to Bloomberg, citing sources; unit could be valued in excess of USD 3bln
• Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOGL) and Samsung (005930 KS) have asked the Indian Government not to accept telecom proposal over privacy concerns and regulatory overreach, according to Reuters, citing sources.

Trade/Tariffs

• US Trade Representative Greer said trade with China needs to be balanced and probably needs to be smaller, while he added they want to have stability in the relationship with China, and that the US trade deficit in goods with China is down about 25%, which is the right direction.
• USTR Greer also noted there are problems with the US-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement and that they already have adjustments to some of these challenges, as well as stated that the US wants to make sure that Canada and Mexico aren't used as an export hub for China, Vietnam or Indonesia, among others.
• China's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said that China has repeatedly stated its position on the issue of US chip exports to China, via Global Times.
• Chinese drone maker DJI urged the Trump administration to complete audits or extend the deadline for the security review, according to a letter to Congress.
• China and France issued a joint statement on agricultural cooperation and signed an MOU on registration of infant milk powder formulas, according to Xinhua.
• Japanese Trade Minister Akazawa said they are monitoring US tariff lawsuit developments and he confirmed that Japanese companies have filed lawsuits in the US seeking refunds of additional tariffs.
• Russian President Putin said Russia is ready to provide uninterrupted fuel supplies to India. Russia and India express interest in deepening cooperation in the exploration, processing and refining technologies for critical minerals and rare earths.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mixed with the regional bourses mostly rangebound, amid light fresh catalysts ahead of US PCE data. ASX 200 edged higher but with gains capped as strength in the mining and materials sectors was partially offset by weakness in consumer discretionary, energy and telecoms, while price action was also contained by the absence of any pertinent data. Nikkei 225 underperformed amid the increased BoJ December rate hike bets and after dismal Household Spending data, which showed a surprise contraction. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp saw two-way price action with early headwinds following another consecutive liquidity drain by the PBoC and reports that US senators seek to block NVIDIA (NVDA) sales of advanced chips to China for 30 months, which would target NVIDIA's H200 and Blackwell chips.

Top Asian News

• BoJ is said to likely hike this month and leave the door open to more, while the central bank is to check the data and market moves up to the final decision, according to Bloomberg.
• Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said they will take appropriate steps on excessive and disorderly moves in the FX market if necessary. Expects the BoJ to conduct monetary policy in an appropriate manner.
• Japan's Economy Minister Kiuchi said the inflationary impact of the stimulus package will likely be limited. The government will keep an eye on market moves with a high sense of urgency. Important for stocks, FX and bond markets to move in line with fundamentals. Specific monetary policy means is up to the BoJ, and the Government will not comment. Hopes the BoJ guides appropriate monetary policy to stably achieve the 2% inflation target.
• Hong Kong's Court endorsed a proposal allowing Country Garden Holdings (2007 HK) to extend repayment of USD 17.7bln in offshore debt.
• China's Commerce Minister said China will ramp up efforts to expand imports, via Xinhua. The Commerce Minister will also expand service consumption, increase implementation of inclusive policies that directly reach consumers, expand auto consumption and promote renewal consumption of home appliances and eliminate restrictive measures.
• RBI cut the Repurchase Rate by 25bps to 5.25%, as expected, with the decision unanimous and it maintained a neutral stance although MPC member Ram Singh wanted the stance to be changed to accommodative from neutral, while the Marginal Lending Facility Rate was lowered by 25bps to 5.50% and the Standing Deposit Facility Rate was reduced by 25bps to 5.00%.

European bourses trade modestly firmer, with little macro news to steer price action. Sentiment follows on from a mixed and quiet APAC session. European sectors mostly reside in the green, led by Financial Services, Basic Resources, Construction and Chemicals. Higher metal prices—particularly copper—help underpin sentiment in Basic Resources, while broader macro flow remains light.

Top European News

• Regulators at the BoE announce plans to support the growth of the mutuals sector. Measures include: A PRA and FCA review of mutual credit union regulations, considering more risk-based requirements for larger, complex firms and proportionality for smaller credit unions.

FX

• DXY has unwound most of its earlier losses. Initially hit by a firmer JPY on the back of more hawkish BoJ sources, coupled with verbal intervention (see below for details). The JPY reaction took DXY down to a 98.805 intraday trough (vs 99.075 APAC high), although since newsflow quietened and despite a stable risk environment, the JPY waned and DXY now attempts to reclaim 99.00 to the upside at the time of writing. The index, however, remains within yesterday's 98.765-99.08 ahead of the September US PCE, which was delayed by the US government shutdown.
• JPY has surrendered most of its earlier gains after an initial surge triggered by Bloomberg sources suggesting the BoJ is likely to hike this month while keeping the door open to further tightening. The reports briefly pushed USD/JPY below 154.50. This was followed by verbal intervention from Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara, who reiterated that authorities would take appropriate steps against excessive or disorderly FX moves if needed. USD/JPY subsequently touched a 154.34 low before rebounding and stalling just shy of 155.00, despite limited follow-through newsflow and a stable risk backdrop.
• AUD is the top gainer, lifted by a surge in copper prices and earlier USD softness, though both AUD and copper later eased off highs as the dollar attempted a recovery. The AUD/NZD cross extended its rebound, pushing back above 1.1450 and trading toward the upper end of a 1.1461–1.1484 range.
• Other G10s vary and continue to take their cue from broader USD moves, though EUR saw a couple of brief upticks after slight upward revisions to Eurozone Q3 GDP and Employment. EUR/USD now trades mid-range within 1.1640–1.1672.

Fixed Income

• USTs remain flat in a thin 112-22+ to 112-27+ band. Traders look ahead to US PCE at 15:00 GMT / 10:00 ET, a release that will feed into the debate around a potential December Fed cut. Odds of such a move have climbed above 85% in recent sessions, up from the low-60% range a month ago, aided by comments from Fed’s Williams, who said policymakers have room for another adjustment in the “near term.”
• JGBs were hit overnight on further hawkish BoJ source reports, with market-implied odds of a December hike nearing 80%. The 10yr Japanese future fell over 20 ticks to a 133.91 trough before stabilising. Since then, bonds have held in tighter ranges as attention turns to US PCE.
• Bunds were marginally softer in a 128.29–128.52 range as markets awaited the 11:30 GMT Bundestag pension vote, which is now widely expected to pass after Die Linke signalled it will abstain—lowering the effective majority threshold and reducing the relevance of dissent within the CDU/CSU’s Young Group. The vote remains a key barometer of Chancellor Merz’s coalition stability.

Commodities

• WTI and Brent continue to trade in tight ranges with European trade underway, and following an overnight session devoid of crude-specific catalysts. Early-door comments from a Kremlin aide noted that Russia and the US are progressing in Ukraine-related talks and that Moscow is ready for further engagement, though this echoed recent rhetoric and left crude benchmarks largely unreactive pending fresh developments.
• Spot Gold found support near USD 4,200/oz in early APAC trade and steadily climbed to a USD 4,231/oz peak as Europe opened. The overnight bid was helped by weakness in the Dollar, with JPY strength driven by reports of a potential December BoJ rate hike. Since the European open, the Dollar has begun to recover, but XAU continues to hold near session highs.
• 3M LME Copper extended its rally to fresh record highs after Thursday’s consolidation in a tight USD ~180/t band. The contract opened just below USD 11.45k/t before buyers immediately stepped in, driving prices to a new all-time high at USD 11.7k/t as Europe opened.
• Discounts for Russian ESPO blend crude oil delivered to China have widened to USD 5-6/bbl vs ICE Brent due to falling demand, according to Reuters

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Hamas Leader to Al-Arabiya: "The Movement Does Not Want to Continue to Rule Gaza ... We Agreed to Form a Technocratic Committee to Govern Gaza".
• US President Trump plans to announce before Christmas the transition to phase 2 of the agreement to end the war in Gaza and the establishment of the new governing body that will manage the strip, according to Axios's Ravid.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Russia's Kremlin said Moscow is waiting for the US reaction after Putin-Witkoff meeting, while it added that there is no plan for a Putin-Trump call for now.
• Russian Kremlin aide said Russia and the US are moving forward in talks relating to Ukraine. Ready for further work with the current US negotiating team.
• The US has urged the EU to oppose the plan to use frozen Russian central bank assets to back a massive loan to Ukraine, via Bloomberg Sources.
• UK ministers are prepared to unlock GBP 8bln of frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine, according to The Times.

Geopolitics: Other

• US military said it conducted a lethal kinetic strike on a vessel in international waters in the eastern Pacific on Thursday.

US Event Calendar

• 10:00 am: Sep Personal Income, est. 0.3%, prior 0.4%
• 10:00 am: Sep Personal Spending, est. 0.3%, prior 0.6%
• 10:00 am: Sep Real Personal Spending, est. 0.1%, prior 0.4%
• 10:00 am: Sep PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
• 10:00 am: Sep PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.8%, prior 2.7%
• 10:00 am: Sep Core PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
• 10:00 am: Sep Core PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.8%, prior 2.9%
• 10:00 am: Dec P U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 52, prior 51
• 3:00 pm: Oct Consumer Credit, est. 10.48b, prior 13.09b

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets saw a modest risk-on move yesterday, as a decent batch of US data saw investors price in fewer rate cuts next year. That optimism meant the S&P 500 (+0.11%) advanced for a third consecutive session, closing less than half a percent beneath its record high, while the VIX index of volatility (-0.30pts) fell to a two-month low of 15.78. Moreover, futures are pointing to a further advance this morning, with those on the S&P 500 up another +0.20% overnight, which would take the index even closer to its October record.  However, more hawkish expectations meant bonds struggled, and the 10yr Treasury yield (+3.5bps) hit a two-week high of 4.10%. Meanwhile, those bond losses echoed around the world, not least after multiple reports suggested the Bank of Japan was on the verge of another rate hike in a couple of weeks’ time. So yesterday saw 10yr JGB yields close at a post-2007 high of 1.93%, and they’re up another +1.1bps this morning to 1.94%.

That US data helped to drive the hawkish repricing, because it suggested the labour market was in a more robust position than previously thought. For instance, the weekly initial jobless claims fell to just 191k in the week ending November 29 (vs. 220k expected). Clearly it’s worth noting that we often see distortions in these numbers around the Thanksgiving holiday, so we shouldn’t overegg the improvement, but it was still a promising sign. Indeed, the 4-week moving average fell to its lowest since January, at just 214.75k. And in other news, the report on announced layoffs from Challenger, Gray & Christmas found there were fewer layoffs than expected, with a rise of +23.5% year-on-year in November (vs. +48.0% expected). So collectively, those releases suggested the US labour market was in a slightly better position than previously thought, despite the broader signs of softening we’ve seen recently. In addition, those releases matter more than usual for the Fed next week, because the data backlog from the shutdown means we won’t get the November jobs report as originally scheduled today, and instead have to wait until December 16.

With that in mind, investors adjusted their expectations in a hawkish direction for the coming months. For instance, even though a December cut is priced above 90%, there was growing scepticism that would be followed up by another, with the total amount of cuts priced by March 2026 down -1.8bps on the day to 39bps. And looking further out, the amount of rate cuts priced by the December 2026 meeting came down -5.2bps on the day to 86bps. So that shift in expectations meant Treasuries lost ground across the curve, with the 2yr yield (+3.8bps) up to 3.52%, whilst the 10yr yield (+3.5bps) rose to 4.10%.

In the meantime, the newsflow out of Japan also goes some way to explaining the latest bond selloff, as markets have become increasingly confident the BoJ will hike again this month. First, there was a Reuters report shortly before we went to press yesterday, which said the BoJ would likely hike rates this month, and the government would tolerate the move. Then a few hours later, Bloomberg similarly reported that key members of the government wouldn’t try to stop the BoJ from hiking in December. So that meant the Japanese yen strengthened against other major currencies yesterday, and this morning it’s strengthened back above 155 per dollar to 154.89.

That newsflow has continued overnight, with Bloomberg reporting this morning that BoJ officials are ready to hike rates at the next meeting, “provided there’s no major shock to the economy or financial markets in the meantime”. Moreover, the article said that the BoJ would indicate that further rate hikes would follow if its outlook for the economy were realised. So if they do proceed, that would take the policy rate up to 0.75%, the highest since 1995. That’s led to a hawkish reaction among Japanese assets, with the yen strengthening +0.18% this morning against the US Dollar, whilst the Nikkei is down -1.29%. And the yield curve has steepened as well, with the 5yr yield (+2.2bps) up to a post-2008 high of 1.42% this morning.

Elsewhere in Asia, we’ve seen a more mixed performance this morning. So the KOSPI (+1.23%) has posted a strong advance, but the CSI 300 (+0.11%) and the Shanghai Comp (+0.05%) have only posted a modest gain, whilst the Hang Seng (-0.06%) is slightly lower. Meanwhile in India, the central bank cut rates by 25bps in line with expectations, taking the repurchase rate down to 5.25%.

All that follows on from a pretty subdued session for US equities yesterday, with the S&P 500 (+0.11%) posting a third consecutive advance. That left the index just -0.49% beneath its record closing high from late-October, whilst other indices like the NASDAQ (+0.22%) and the Magnificent 7 (+0.53%) also moved higher. In terms of specifics, Meta (+3.43%) rose after a Bloomberg report said that executives were considering budget cuts up to as much as 30% for the metaverse group. Meanwhile, Dollar General (+14.01%) was the top performer in the S&P after raising their full-year outlook. However, some of the more defensive sectors in the S&P 500 struggled, with consumer staples (-0.73%) and healthcare (-0.73%) both losing ground. Futures on the S&P 500 are pointing to further gains this morning, with a +0.20% advance.

Earlier in Europe, equities had put in an even stronger performance, with the STOXX 600 (+0.45%) closing less than 1% beneath its own record high. That was echoed across the continent, where the DAX (+0.79%) and the CAC 40 (+0.43%) also rose, whilst Spain’s IBEX 35 (+0.97%) hit an all-time high. As in the US however, sovereign bonds struggled, with yields on 10yr bunds (+2.4bps), OATs (+3.2bps) and BTPs (+2.2bps) all moving higher. Finally in the commodity space, Brent crude rose +1.02% to $63.31/bbl as investors weighed ongoing risks to Russian oil supply. 

To the day ahead now, and US data releases include PCE inflation for September, and the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for December. Otherwise, we’ll get German factory orders and French industrial production for October, and Canada’s employment report for November. Finally from central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Villeroy and Lane.

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

A new Gallup poll shows that U.S. consumer confidence deteriorated sharply in November, falling to its weakest level in 17 months as households contended with a protracted federal government shutdown, volatile financial markets, cooling job prospects, and renewed inflation anxiety.

The gloomier mood—reflected in Gallup’s Dec. 4 poll and aligning with several other major sentiment surveys—coincided with a pullback in Americans’ holiday spending plans, raising concerns about softer momentum heading into the final weeks of 2025.

Gallup’s economic confidence index fell seven points to –30 in November, its weakest reading since July 2024. The drop reflected dimmer views of both current conditions and the outlook: 21 percent of Americans called the economy “excellent” or “good,” while 40 percent said it is “poor.”

Expectations slipped further, with just 27 percent saying the economy is improving—down from 31 percent in October—and 68 percent saying it is getting worse.

The downturn marks a notable reversal from the relative stability seen for much of the year.

After improving through late 2024 on post-election optimism, the index had hovered between –14 and –22 for most of 2025 before slipping in October and then tumbling last month. At -30, November’s sentiment reading is well above the recent low of -58 notched in June 2022, when inflation soared to a recent peak of 9 percent and sent confidence plummeting. The lowest the gauge has ever hit is -72, in October 2008, during the financial crisis.

Historic Pullback in Holiday Spending Plans

Consumers’ heightened economic anxiety in November translated into a far smaller appetite for holiday gift spending than earlier in the season. Gallup found that Americans have cut their expected holiday budgets by $229 since October - the largest midseason drop the organization has ever recorded, surpassing even the $185 decline during the 2008 financial crisis.

Despite the sharp contraction in projected spending, only 29 percent of Americans say they plan to spend less than last year, up from 23 percent in October but still far below the 46 percent who reported plans to cut back in November 2008.

Labor market sentiment also softened meaningfully. Just a third of Americans (33 percent) said it is a good time to find a quality job, the weakest reading since January 2021, when COVID-19 lockdowns were pressuring labor markets. Views on job availability have worsened steadily through the fall, mirroring private-sector payroll data showing a broad pullback in hiring.

ADP Research reported this week that the private sector shed 32,000 jobs in November—the weakest showing since early 2023—driven largely by steep losses at small firms. Wage gains continued to cool, with year-over-year pay growth easing to 4.4 percent in November from the prior month’s 4.5 percent pace of growth.

Other gauges of economic activity suggest a mixed backdrop. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence gauge slid to 88.7, its lowest since April, and expectations remained mired below the recession-warning threshold for a tenth consecutive month.

Michigan’s sentiment survey showed a double-digit plunge in current conditions and weaker buying plans for big-ticket goods. JPMorganChase Institute data showed real household income growth slowed to 1.6 percent in October, leaving consumers heading into the holidays with flat bank balances and limited purchasing-power gains.

These readings reflect sentiment shaped by the 43-day federal government shutdown, which delayed pay for federal workers, disrupted flights, and halted key benefit programs, adding strain to household finances. Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to 50.3 in November, its lowest since June 2022, as respondents reported worsening personal finances and growing anxiety about the shutdown’s broader economic fallout.

Retail Spending Cools but Continues to Grow

Retail activity has cooled, though it has continued to expand. The latest government data—interrupted by the shutdown—indicate slower sales in September, and while private-sector card spending figures from the Bank of America Institute show relatively solid year-over-year gains in October, some of that strength was buoyed by higher prices rather than higher volumes.

Despite the sour near-term mood, forecasters remain cautiously optimistic about next year. A recent National Association for Business Economics outlook sees 2026 growth improving to 2 percent, supported by resilient consumer spending and firmer business investment.

Similarly, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has raised its U.S. growth forecast, with the 38-country group saying the upgrade reflects exceptional rates of investment in information processing equipment, software, and data center construction, helping offset cooling job growth and other headwinds.

Netflix will acquire Warner Bros., including its film and TV studios, HBO, and HBO Max, in a cash-and-stock transaction valuing WBD at an enterprise value of $82.7 billion (equity value $72 billion), or $27.75 per share. The deal is expected to close in 3Q26, following WBD's planned spinoff of its Global Networks division into a separate public company ("Discovery Global"). The move comes just months after Paramount-Skydance made its own bid for WBD.

The Netflix-WBD deal unites the streaming platform with a century-deep library and franchises such as DC, Harry Potter, Game of Thrones, The Sopranos, and The Big Bang Theory.

Netflix wrote in a statement that the deal will boost its content offering, expand production capacity, and improve long-term growth:

By offering members a wider selection of quality series and films, Netflix expects to attract and retain more members, drive more engagement, and generate incremental revenue and operating income. The company also expects to realize at least $2–3 billion of cost savings per year by the third year and expects the transaction to be accretive to GAAP earnings per share by year two.

Here's a snapshot of the deal terms:

• Each WBD share converts into $23.25 in cash plus $4.50 in Netflix stock

• Boards of both companies unanimously approved the transaction

• Closing in 12–18 months, pending regulatory review and WBD shareholder approval

• Bankers for NFLX: Moelis, Skadden; additional financing by Wells Fargo, BNP, HSBC

• Bankers for WBD: Allen & Co., J.P. Morgan, Evercore; legal counsel Wachtell and Debevoise

Netflix outbid other offers, including those from Paramount-Skydance and Comcast, earlier this year.

Bloomberg noted that Hollywood is far from thrilled about this new Netflix–WBD marriage:

And the winner is… Netflix.

Warner Bros. Discovery began exclusive negotiations to sell its film and TV studios and HBO Max to Netflix, people familiar said — a sign that the streaming giant pulled ahead of Paramount-Skydance and Comcast. A deal would reshape the entertainment landscape and mark a major strategic shift for Netflix, already Hollywood's most valuable company. Paramount called the sale process "tainted," while two-time Oscar-winner Jane Fonda used a stronger word for its likely impact on the industry: "catastrophic."

Founded as a DVD-by-mail service, Netflix first crushed video chain Blockbuster - and is now doing the same to Hollywood by largely refusing to release films in theaters. The deal would position Netflix as a true studio heavyweight. Of course, all of this still hinges on regulatory approval, with California Republican Darrell Issa already objecting to any potential Netflix takeover of Warner Bros.

Leftist CNN anchor Jake Tapper was blasted online as "an NPC programmed to lie" after he falsely identified the accused D.C. pipe-bomber Brian Cole Jr. as "a white man."

"Brian Cole Jr., a 30-year-old white man from the D.C. suburbs, is charged with transporting an explosive device in interstate commerce and with malicious destruction by means of explosion. CNN observed local and federal law enforcement outside his home in Woodbridge, Virginia, this morning," Tapper told viewers - a statement that now appears grossly misleading and suggests the unhinged anchor is upholding a political and racial bias simply because the facts don't fit the fake-news narrative mainstream media has pushed for years.

Just so instinctually programmed to lie. Literally an NPC. Programmed to lie.

— Autism Capital ?? (@AutismCapital) December 5, 2025

Tapper's segment refers to pipe bombs found near the Republican and Democratic National Committee headquarters on January 5, 2021, the night before the Capitol riot.

In a separate report, the New York Post noted: "Cole's father is also Black and once enlisted the services of Ben Crump, an attorney best known for his racial discrimination cases."

According to an FBI affidavit filed on Wednesday, Cole works in the office of a bail bondsman in northern Virginia. He resides in a single-family home in Woodbridge with his mother and other relatives.

The current scene outside the J6 pipe bomber suspect Brian Cole’s Virginia homepic.twitter.com/3CptZpuxsD

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) December 4, 2025

Public records indicate that Brian Cole is connected to a wide network of bail-bonds companies.

When corporate media's manufactured narratives collapse like a house of cards, their immediate reaction is always the same: lie. But this time, the fake news isn't sticking - ordinary people see through the bullshit, and trust in mainstream media continues plunging to record lows.

This week's maritime focus, mostly centered on Ukraine's drone strikes against Russia's shadow-fleet tankers, has shifted to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the critical chokepoint linking the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, where reports now indicate a bulk carrier has come under attack.

UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said it received a report that a bulk carrier transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait was attacked by a swarm of 15 small craft.

"A vessel reports sighting approximately 15 small craft; some of the small craft closed to within a range of 1–2 cables, and there was an exchange of fire," UKMTO wrote in a warning notice.

Maritime analytics provider MarineTraffic posted an update on X stating that the bulk carrier was approximately 14 nautical miles west of Yemen when the captain issued the first distress call.

MarineTraffic provided further details about the attack:

A bulk carrier transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait came under attack early Friday, according to incident reports shared by UKMTO. #MarineTraffic data shows the vessel Bobic maintaining speed while altering course at 03:32 UTC, approximately 14 nautical miles west of Yemen, when the first distress call was issued. The ship reported being approached by up to 15 small craft, prompting its onboard security team to return fire. A second attack followed shortly afterward, involving two skiffs and a suspected mothership several miles away.

Another vessel, the Globe Aliki, was also transiting the area at the time and crossed paths with the Bobic at 03:35 UTC. According to reports, the Globe Aliki observed the small boats from roughly 1 nautical mile away, describing them as fishing-type craft. The vessel itself was not targeted.

Prior to the incident, AIS data shows that on 3 December at 17:55 UTC, the Bobic's AIS destination was changed to "Armed Guard Onboard." On 5 December at 05:47 UTC, the AIS destination changed again to "Chinese Crew." The Bobic is now continuing toward its next port of call, with all crew reported safe and the security team having successfully repelled both attacks.

Bulk carrier attacked by suspected pirates in Bab el-Mandeb Strait

A bulk carrier transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait came under attack early Friday, according to incident reports shared by UKMTO. #MarineTraffic data shows the vessel Bobic maintaining speed while altering course… pic.twitter.com/Y8hhisPGKX

— MarineTraffic (@MarineTraffic) December 5, 2025

Shipping journal Lloyd's List posted exclusive footage showing security personnel on the ship firing long rifles at the small boats.

Lloyd's List noted: "The lack of serious intent from the attackers, as well as the location of the incident, suggest the perpetrators are as likely to be local fishermen protecting their nets and lines as they are to be Somali pirates or Houthi militants."

Authored by Felix Ng via CoinTelegraph.com,

Over the years, we’ve explored some intriguing theories about who (or what) created Bitcoin, ranging from the top government spy agency in America to a time-traveling AI and even the lizard people. 

(StarPlatinum)

However, some are adamant that the creator of Bitcoin is much more human and has been under our noses this whole time, sporting a guru beard, sandals, and wearing a T-shirt with Satoshi written on it in large letters: the billionaire Twitter and Block founder Jack Dorsey. 

“I believe that Jack has been outwardly signaling that he’s Satoshi for more than a decade,” deBanked chief editor Sean Murray tells Magazine. 

“I don’t think his actions over the past decade are of someone saying ‘don’t find me’ but rather someone building on to the lore of how it’s him, why it’s him, that each blatant but indirect admission is part of the art, the brand of poetic terrorism that he subscribes to.”

So what makes some intelligent and respected people — including VanEck’s head of digital assets research Matthew Sigel — so confident that Dorsey is the creator of Bitcoin? 

1. Jack Dorsey was one of the original cypherpunks in the 1990s and wanted to end dependence on the dollar

Like any good murder mystery, a killer requires a motive. Dorsey has this in spades. 

Dorsey was one of the original 1,300 members of the famed Cypherpunk mailing list — a foundational online community founded in 1992 that prized privacy and digital freedom and laid the groundwork for Bitcoin as money outside the control of the state. He joined the list in 1996 while a student at the University of Missouri–Rolla at around 20 years of age. 

Jack Dorsey wearing an RSA shirt designed by Dr Adam Back in protest of the US government’s ban on the export of RSA encryption. (Sean Murray)

Dorsey even created a website that promoted the cyberpunks’ mission using his university domain. It’s safe to say he was a massive fan of the movement and familiar with Adam Back and Hal Finney and DigiCash long before they became well known.

Fun fact: In 2003, Dorsey reportedly blogged, “I also wish to end my dependence on the American Dollar ($) and in that vein am setting up a bartering network.”

2. Dorsey’s ventures are about Bitcoin and decentralization

Dorsey’s alignment with the cypherpunk movement persists to today. In 2009, he founded the now crypto-forward payments company, Square (now known as Block), which has just rolled out Bitcoin payments to over 4 million merchants. 

In 2019, after his second return as CEO of Twitter, he created Bluesky, a decentralized Twitter alternative that embodies some of Bitcoin’s decentralized ideals. It didn’t live up to his ideals of decentralization so he focused his efforts on supporting Nostr instead.  

Then, earlier this year, Dorsey launched Bitchat. This decentralized communications platform enables people to contact each other without the need for the internet, which has proven particularly valuable amid government protests and natural disasters, much like Bitcoin has in the past. 

Screenshot of Jack Dorsey’s early cypherpunk website. Credit to Sean Murray

His charity, Start Small, donated a whopping $21 million to OpenSats, a nonprofit that supports the developers of Bitcoin Core and other projects related to Bitcoin. 

No matter which way you slice it, Dorsey is a cypherpunk OG who has the motivation, and as we will see, the know-how to create and support the growth of Bitcoin.

3. See? Plus, plus: Jack Dorsey had the know-how to code Bitcoin

So, if Dorsey wanted to create Bitcoin, did he have the skills to code it?

The answer to this is also a resounding probably. Dorsey was obsessed with computers since his father brought home an IBM PC Junior, when he was around 8 years old. They later got a Macintosh, and by the age of 11, he had taught himself to code. 

What an IBM PCjr looked like (Wikimedia Commons)

“I was enthralled by both of them, mainly the ability to just change what they do. So I learned how to program in BASIC, and I played with HyperCard, and little by little I got better and better at newer programming languages like C,” said Dorsey in a Harvard Business School podcast in 2014. 

By around the age of 15, Dorsey was already writing dispatch software for taxi cabs, couriers and emergency services that would later be used for decades. 

When deBanked’s Murray Dorsey uncovered Dorsey’s early cypherpunk website from the late 90s, it showed Dorsey already knew coding languages including C, Python, Java, Perl, PHP, OCaml, JoCaml, Lisp, ObjC and more. And yes, it did show he knew how to code in C++, the language the original Bitcoin client was written in.

So, it’s not a giant leap to think that Dorsey would have had an even firmer grasp of programming by the time he was 32, which was how old he was when the Bitcoin white paper was released. 

4. Dorsey was focused on other things outside his day job in the lead up to the BTC white paper

The theory becomes even more intriguing once you realize that Dorsey, who founded and ran Twitter from 2006 to 2008, happened to have some downtime just weeks before the Bitcoin white paper was released — downtime potentially related to spending too much time away from his day job. 

Writing Bitcoin would not have been an easy task. Nakamoto once told early Bitcoin user and developer Mike Hearn in 2010 that it took him two years of development before releasing the Bitcoin paper and code, “and I could only spend so much time on each of the many issues.” 

This would have been precisely the time frame that Dorsey was working as the CEO of Twitter before he was fired in October 2008. 

Why did he get fired? Many reports pin it to Dorsey’s failure to address the platform’s frequent service disruptions and perceived leadership issues. 

However, some suggest that part of the reason is that he would leave the office early to “de-stress and attend night courses in fashion and drawing.” 

Satoshi Nakamoto would go on to share the Bitcoin white paper for the first time on Oct. 31, 2008, with the message: 

I’ve been working on a new electronic cash system that’s fully peer-to-peer, with no trusted third party.” 

Bitcoin officially launched a few months later on Jan. 3, 2009. 

5. The coincidences

Then, there are the many “coincidences” aligning specific dates in Bitcoin with aspects of Dorsey’s personal life. Believers are convinced these Easter eggs were made to subtly point toward Dorsey. 

Here are some key ones, with credit to Murray and Sigel; however, there are countless more that we didn’t cover, which can be found here. 

(Matthew Sigel)

Oct. 31, 2008: Bitcoin white paper comes out / Oct. 31, 2008: Neal Stephenson, author of “Snow Crash,” birthday. Dorsey is a fan of the book.

Jan. 9, 2009: Dorsey attends an award show in San Francisco / Jan. 10, 2009: Nakamoto accidentally logged into IRC from an IP address in California

Jan. 11, 2009: Nakamoto’s first recorded transaction / Jan. 11, 2009: Dorsey’s mother’s birthday

Nov. 19, 2009: Nakamoto registers for the Bitcoin forum as “satoshi” / Nov. 19, 2009: Dorsey’s birthday / Nov. 19, 2015: Square (now Block)’s IPO / Block Investors Day, Nov.19 2025.

May 3, 2010: Nakamoto’s last mined Bitcoin / May 3, 2010: Dorsey’s father’s birthday.

Then there’s the coincidence that his good friend Alyssa Milano wrote a graphic novel called Hacktivist about a billionaire character based on Dorsey who runs a social media company but is a secret hacker who develops a decentralized encrypted peer to peer network. Hmmm.

6. Jack Dorsey bankrolled the case against Faketoshi

Another circumstantial piece of evidence is what Jack Dorsey did when he saw a man parading around the world claiming to be Satoshi Nakamoto. 

For years, Australian computer scientist Dr. Craig Wright claimed to be the inventor of Bitcoin. He ultimately lost the battle last year and was forced to admit he was not.

But before that, his lawyer, Anthony Grabiner, had argued that it was “striking” that no one else had publicly claimed to be the creator of Bitcoin. 

“If Dr Wright were not Satoshi, the real Satoshi would have been expected to come forward to counter the claim,” said Grabiner. 

Jack Dorsey answered the call.

In May 2020, 145 ancient Bitcoin addresses signed a message stating that Craig Wright was not Satoshi and a liar and a fraud. The oldest Bitcoin address that signed the message started with 1jak — Jack’s old pseudonym.

Through Block, Dorsey co-founded and bankrolled the Crypto Open Patent Alliance (COPA), which sued Wright in 2021 to legally declare he is not the creator of Bitcoin.

Dorsey began wearing the Satoshi T-shirt in February 2022, in the midst of the saga.

The case concluded with a High Court ruling in March 2024 in their favor. Dorsey simply and humbly labeled it a “W” after the verdict was announced. 

5 good reasons why Jack Dorsey isn’t Satoshi Nakamoto

While none of the evidence above could be considered bulletproof, supporters of the theory say there’s more than enough circumstantial evidence to seriously point toward Dorsey. Not everyone agrees, though. 

Knowing how to code and being a member of the Cypherpunk mailing list is probably just the bare minimum to be a Nakamoto candidate. Julian Assange was also on the list, along with Adam Back and Wei Dai, for example.

Critics of the theory argue that there’s no single piece of evidence that concretely links Dorsey to Nakamoto.

Jameson Lopp, the co-founder of crypto security company Casa, is one of these people, calling the theory a “half baked narrative.”

“It’s true that Jack was a cypherpunk and a programmer, but that’s the strongest ‘evidence’ available to support this theory. Everything else is circumstantial if not outright mental gymnastics via numerology,” says Lopp. 

1. Dorsey would have had to juggle Bitcoin, Square and Twitter

“I think Jack is by far one of the least plausible theories because there’s so much evidence that he was too busy doing other things (traveling, building, and promoting Twitter) to be deep in the weeds on a project as novel as Bitcoin,” Lopp tells Magazine. 

Common sense says that Dorsey wouldn’t have had the time to work to grow Bitcoin, argues Lopp. While Dorsey was indeed fired as Twitter’s CEO in 2008, just before Nakamoto released the Bitcoin white paper, Dorsey remained chairman of the board.

Then a year later, Dorsey founded Square, a company that allows anyone to accept credit card payments on a mobile device. It would be pretty challenging for Dorsey to have assembled a brand new company while steering the Bitcoin ship.

2014: "We found Satoshi. Turns out he was hiding in plain sight and was listed in the phone book."

2025: "We found Satoshi. Turns out he was hiding in plain sight and appearing on national television wearing a Satoshi shirt." pic.twitter.com/Vs7suPUCZI

— Jameson Lopp (@lopp) February 18, 2025

“It’s quite clear that he was an extremely busy person not only overseeing multiple companies, but traveling around the world meeting important people, doing press interviews, speaking at conferences, promoting philanthropic causes, and more,” argues Lopp. 

His activities do not fit the profile of someone who had the time and mental bandwidth to also be building a completely new financial system from scratch while maintaining perfect anonymity.”

But Murray argues that this is precisely why Nakamoto complained about being “really busy” on several occasions between 2009 and 2011, eventually leaving the Bitcoin project, posting on April 23, 2011 that “I’ve moved on to other things. It’s in good hands with Gavin and everyone.”

2. Satoshi wary of government, Dorsey worked with them

Another piece of evidence that suggests Dorsey is not Nakamoto is that the creator of Bitcoin comes across almost as a cautious recluse and wasn’t a fan of the government or government control.

Lopp argues that, in contrast, Dorsey is a highly public figure. 

“The funny thing about Jack is that, unlike most cypherpunks, he was an extremely public individual who posted what he was up to on nearly an hourly basis,” he explains.  

Dorsey also reportedly spent 2008 and 2015 engaged with the US State Department as part of several delegations to Iraq, Iran and Russia with other representatives from the tech sector, which would appear to be out of character for Nakamoto. 

3. Satoshi Nakamoto had regular PT posting patterns

Lopp also noted that Satoshi’s online activity suggests a consistent sleeping pattern in the Pacific timezone. Cities in this timezone include Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, Vancouver and Tijuana. 

In contrast, Dorsey’s tweets were far more erratic — consistent with someone who is constantly travelling between different time zones. However, it is worth noting that Dorsey was based in San Francisco around the time Bitcoin was created. 

Satoshi Nakamoto and Jack Dorsey had different online activity patterns (Jameson Lopp)

4. Dorsey and Nakamoto had conflicting activities

A related point is that Lopp argues that there are specific event conflicts that make it doubtful that Dorsey and Nakamoto are the same person. 

For example, in November 2009, Dorsey tweeted he was having a “late lunch” with venture capitalist Fred Wilson, but only five minutes later, Nakamoto committed code to the SourceForge repository. 

In another instance, Jack said he was walking to meet the mayor of Paris at City Hall on Dec. 9, 2009, and only 18 minutes later, Satoshi posted several responses to a technical suggestion thread about Bitcoin. 

Satoshi Nakamoto’s post to BitcoinTalk, as Jack Dorsey was set to meet the mayor of Paris  (Jameson Lopp)

Another potential conflict arose in July 2010, when Jack tweeted that he was getting ready to go on stage to present at the Square headquarters, and posted “Boom” around 28 minutes later, presumably when he had finished the presentation. 

During this time, Satoshi posted to the Bitcoin talk forum.

Of course, if you can design an entirely new monetary system in your spare time, you can probably schedule in a few posts to throw people off the scent.

Lopp acknowledges that it’s not impossible that Dorsey pre-timed certain posts on Bitcointalk or posted with his mobile phone while on the go, but argues that if that was the case, Dorsey would have picked much more public events and settings to set his pre-timed posts as Nakamoto. 

5. Coincidental dates are meaningless

Lopp also argues the so-called “numerology” — like Nakamoto signing up for BitcoinTalk on the same day as Dorsey’s birthday is “absolute junk.” 

“You can find patterns in anything,” Lopp tells Magazine. “It preys upon our monkey brain’s innate desire to find patterns in random noise and try to make sense of them.”

There’s actually a scientific term for this called “Apophenia” — the psychological phenomenon of perceiving meaningful patterns or connections between unrelated or random things. It’s seen as one of the key reasons why humans can navigate the world in the way we do. 

Apophenia could be why people keep accidentally finding Jesus Christ in their grilled cheese toast (YouTube)

Famed physicist Neil deGrasse Tyson once made a similar observation. 

“Over centuries of evolution, humans’ pattern recognition skills determined natural selection. Hunters skilled at spotting prey and predator and telling poisonous plants from healthy ones offered them a better chance of survival than those blind to the patterns. It enabled the survivors to pass on those pattern-friendly genes to future generations.” 

The debate goes on

The evidence pointing to Dorsey is certainly fascinating, but is far from irrefutable. Murray remains convinced that Dorsey is Nakamoto. 

“I believe that the Satoshi character is a Jack Dorsey story, that the circumstantial evidence, skillset, timeline, background, and modus operandi are a perfect match,” he tells Magazine. 

“Prior to my research, there were very few people, if any, that were even aware Jack was one of the original cypherpunks or that he was obsessed with cryptography as a youth, that he knew of Adam Back and Hal Finney and DigiCash by name.”

The pieces were intentionally put there to be found, even if we may never be afforded the satisfaction of him directly coming out and saying it’s him.”

Lopp thinks it’s more likely to be someone other than Dorsey — but argues that for the sake of Bitcoin, we would be better off not looking. 

“I find the aggregate of all the evidence to provide so much doubt that a reasonable person would conclude that it’s far more likely that Satoshi was someone else,” says Lopp in a blog post. 

Bitcoin is better off with Satoshi’s identity remaining unknown. A human can be criticized and politically attacked. A myth will withstand the test of time.