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New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani is urging Albany to consider a sweeping overhaul of New York’s estate tax, proposing to sharply lower the exemption threshold and dramatically increase the top rate on large inheritances. His plan would cut the exemption from more than $7 million to $750,000 while boosting the highest tax rate from 16 percent to 50 percent, Bloomberg reported. 

The idea was included in a policy memo his administration recently shared with state lawmakers as they negotiate the state budget, according to NY Focus.

The estate tax proposal is one of several revenue measures Mamdani’s office has floated as the city prepares for a significant budget gap. New York City is projecting a $5.4 billion deficit for the fiscal year that begins July 1, and the mayor is asking state officials to help identify new sources of funding to help close the shortfall.

Among the other proposals is a narrower package of business tax increases aimed specifically at companies operating in the city. The administration estimates those changes could generate about $1.75 billion annually. Under the plan, the city’s corporate tax rate would rise to 10.8 percent for financial firms and to 10.62 percent for other corporations, while the tax on large unincorporated businesses would increase modestly for firms earning more than $5 million.

Mamdani is also proposing to scale back the Pass-Through Entity Tax credit, which currently allows certain business owners to use company tax payments to fully offset what they owe in personal income taxes. Limiting that credit to 75 percent of its value would produce roughly $700 million a year, according to city estimates. The mayor continues to advocate for raising the local income tax rate on residents earning more than $1 million annually, a measure projected to bring in about $3 billion each year.

The report says that several ideas in the memo target high-end real estate transactions and ownership. They include a one percent surcharge on homes valued above $5 million, a one percent tax on cash-only property purchases exceeding $1 million, and a broader version of the existing mansion tax on luxury home sales. Combined, these changes could generate roughly $1.2 billion in additional annual revenue. Mamdani has also backed eliminating the sales-tax exemption on gold bullion and similar precious metals, which city officials estimate would produce about $300 million for the city each year.

Despite the aggressive estate tax proposal, it appears unlikely to gain traction in the current budget negotiations. Neither chamber of the state legislature has included it in their spending plans, and Governor Kathy Hochul did not incorporate it into her own budget proposal. Lawmakers in both the Senate and Assembly have, however, endorsed separate plans that would increase income and corporate taxes.

Longer-term fiscal pressures are also shaping the debate. Mark Levine has warned that New York City could face cumulative deficits of at least $28 billion over the next four fiscal years, suggesting that state and city officials may continue exploring tax increases and other revenue measures in the years ahead.

As we wrote just hours ago, Moody’s changed its outlook on New York City’s credit rating to negative while keeping its Aa2 rating in place, citing growing concerns about sizable and persistent projected budget deficits that suggest a structural imbalance in the city’s finances and reduced fiscal flexibility.

The shift follows updated spending projections showing larger gaps than previously expected, with the city needing to close at least a $5.4 billion deficit across this year and next as expenses continue to rise faster than revenues. New York’s $127 billion budget also relies on using its rainy-day fund, potentially limiting its ability to manage a future economic downturn.

Moody’s decision signals that a formal downgrade could follow in the coming months if the city fails to address its widening fiscal gaps.

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

Some U.S. pharmacies are scrambling to fill estradiol transdermal patch prescriptions as demand for the menopause treatment continues to soar following the Trump administration’s decision to remove what it determined was an outdated cancer warning.

“Manufacturers have been unable to provide sufficient supply of hormone replacement therapies [HRT] over the last several weeks,” CVS pharmacy spokeswoman Roslyn Guarino told The Epoch Times March 9.

In November, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) started the process of removing the so-called “black box warning” from estrogen and estrogen-progesterone replacement therapy added in 2003, ending more than two decades of fear that the treatments increased risk of breast cancer.

As a result, estradiol transdermal patch prescriptions have increased by about 86 percent since 2021, according to the latest study by Epic Research.

CVS pharmacies—the largest U.S. chain—are working with patients to make sure they have access to their medications when the interruptions occur, Guarino said.

Sandoz and Amneal Biosciences, two major producers of estradiol transdermal patches for the U.S. market, listed 10 transdermal patch products currently affected by the shortage. Neither manufacturer gave reasons for the shortages.

Sandoz said the company takes the current supply situation “very seriously” and is making adjustments to meet the demand.

“Recent changes in prescribing behavior due to the FDA’s removal of boxed warnings on HRT patches have created an unprecedented demand that cannot be fully met at present,” Sandoz spokeswoman Jeanne LaCour told The Epoch Times in an email.

“We know this situation is frustrating and inconvenient for the women who rely on these patches. As a global leader in affordable medicines, Sandoz cares deeply about the well-being and health of the women who rely on these treatments. We are working on increasing global capacity to ensure adequate supply of HRT transdermal patches and to support continuity of treatment for patients around the world.

“In the interim, to help women in the U.S. specifically, we have allocated additional quantities to the States to better meet the increase in demand,” LaCour added.

Amneal Biosciences did not immediately return a request for comment.

Viatris, Noven, and Zydus had available product, according to the latest report.

“For more than two decades, bad science and bureaucratic inertia have resulted in women and physicians having an incomplete view of [hormone replacement therapy],” U.S. Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy said in a statement about the decision.

“We are returning to evidence-based medicine and giving women control over their health again.”

The warning was preventing millions of women from receiving the life-changing and long-term health benefits of hormone replacement therapy, according to FDA Commissioner Marty Makary.

Studies show that women who start the therapy within 10 years of the onset of menopause, usually before the age of 60, can reduce all-cause mortality and bone fractures. They may also lessen the risk of heart disease by half, and Alzheimer’s disease by a third, the FDA reported.

The president of the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG), Dr. Steven Fleischman, applauded the decision to remove the black box warning, saying the organization has long advocated for its removal on low-dose vaginal estrogen because of the barrier it posed for people who suffered from menopause symptoms.

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.in Washington on Jan. 7, 2026. Alex Wong/Getty Images

“ACOG commends the HHS leadership for improving the lives of perimenopausal women by making the estrogen products they need more accessible to them,” Fleishman said. “The modifications to certain warning labels for estrogen products are years in the making, reflecting the dedicated advocacy of physicians and patients across the country. The updated labels will better allow patients and clinicians to engage in a shared decision-making process without an unnecessary barrier, when it comes to treatment of menopausal symptoms.”

Dr. Sharon Winer, a reproductive endocrinologist at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles, said patients should be cautious about the decision.

“The FDA ruling gives clinicians and patients space to individualize care, but it’s not a license to assume [menopause hormone therapy] is universally beneficial,” Winer said. “The FDA’s action is progress, but it doesn’t mean [menopause hormone therapy] will solve every aging-related concern. There’s a lot we still don’t know.”

The Department of War is reportedly building a 30-person investment banking team, called the "Economic Defense Unit," to deploy $200 billion in private equity over three years into defense companies and, more importantly, war unicorns, as the race to secure the Western Hemisphere and counter China, Russia, and Iran intensifies in the Trump era.

Seamfor reviewed a slide deck from the headhunting firm Heidrick & Struggles that says DoW is seeking to stack EDU with bankers from Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, and Bank of America.

The presentation pitches bankers a once-in-a-lifetime chance to "serve your country" and deploy "more capital than most investors deploy in their entire careers," as well as an opportunity to sell a large amount of stock tax-deferred.

Seamfor noted that EDU will report to former Cerebrus alums David Lorch and George K. Kollitides II, the former Remington CEO who is now a partner at private equity firm Alvarez & Marsal Capital. 

Heidrick & Struggles' deck also promises bankers "unmatched access to top-level government officials and privileged information flow—whatever you need, you can get."

Finance influencer High Yield Harry published on X what he claims is the deck that headhunters sent to investment bankers.

Intro

Situation Background

Situation Background

The Mission

The Investment Team

Value Proposition

Managing Director Candidates

Vice President Candidates

Associate Candidates

The Trump administration has invested in a handful of companies critical to the survival of the US, from Intel to MP Materials to L3Harris Missile Solutions to USA Rare Earth, Trilogy Metals / Upper Kobuk Minerals Project, and soon a whole bunch of war unicorns (read here).

Authored by John R. Lott Jr. via RealClearPolitics,

Gun control advocates do not just oppose civilian gun ownership; they also argue that guns in the hands of police make people less safe.

In January, a Border Patrol agent in Portland shot and wounded two Venezuelan nationals who belonged to the violent Tren de Aragua gang after they allegedly tried to run agents over with their vehicle. In response, Kris Brown, president of Brady United, tweeted the following:

“We don’t know the details behind the shootings of 2 people by a Border Patrol agent in Portland. But I know one thing for certain: whether in the hands of federal officers or everyday Americans, guns do not make us safer. Yet Trump is reshaping our country based on this lie.”

What were the Border Patrol agents supposed to do when an illegal alien with a criminal record tries to run over an agent? How are unarmed agents supposed to apprehend and detain violent gang members?

Currently on its website, Brady United explains: “Why Police violence is gun violence … As we work to tackle the gun violence epidemic in America, we cannot ignore police violence or its devastating effects.”

The same claim is made repeatedly by other gun control groups.

“Police violence is gun violence and that’s why our movement must be responsive as well,” declares Shannon Watts, president for Moms Demand Action.

“Police violence is gun violence,” proclaims Gabby Giffords, with the Giffords Law Center.

These last two statements are from 2021 and 2020, so their opposition to police having guns isn’t a new focus.

Gun control groups sometimes openly acknowledge their goal of banning all guns. In a 2023 interview with Time magazine, for example, Gabby Giffords – who heads the Giffords Law Center – answered a question about her goal by saying: “No more guns.” When the interviewer asked whether she meant no more gun violence, Giffords clarified: “No, no, no. Lord, no. Guns, guns, guns. No more guns. Gone.”

Time magazine itself treated the remark as significant enough to place Giffords’ line – “No more guns, Gone” – in the headline.

If firearms are bad per se, it should be easy to find places where either all guns or all handguns have been banned and murder/homicide rates have gone down. One would think out of randomness there should be at least one place where murder rates have gone down or at least stayed the same, but every single time, even for island nations, murder rates have gone up immediately after the ban.

A simple logic is at play here: Who is most likely to obey the law? While such statutes may take a few guns from criminals, they primarily disarm the most law-abiding citizens, making it easier for criminals to commit crimes.

Similar problems exist for police. Taking away the guns that both civilians and police have doesn’t mean that criminals will readily forfeit their weapons. Criminals have strong incentives to keep and obtain weapons. Drug gangs can’t go to the police and ask for help to get their drugs back when another gang steals their drugs. The gangs have set up their own little paramilitaries to protect their valuable stash.

Gun control advocates point to the low murder rate in the United Kingdom, with its largely unarmed police forces, as evidence that disarming police can make people safer. But they ignore that the U.K. had an even lower homicide rate relative to the U.S. before they enacted strict gun controls, and that after a 1997 handgun ban, Britain experienced increases in homicide rates.

Gun control advocates often frame their proposals as modest steps to reduce violence, but their own statements often reveal a far broader goal. The evidence from places that have banned guns also shows a troubling pattern: Disarming the law-abiding does not disarm criminals. If we want to reduce crime and protect the public, policies must focus on stopping criminals – not on leaving both citizens and police defenseless.

John R. Lott Jr. is a contributor to RealClearInvestigations, focusing on voting and gun rights. His articles have appeared in publications such as the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Los Angeles Times, New York Post, USA Today, and Chicago Tribune. Lott is an economist who has held research and/or teaching positions at the University of Chicago, Yale University, Stanford, UCLA, Wharton, and Rice.

Summary:

• US strikes on Kharg Island escalate war as Trump claims allies sending warships to Hormuz: Trump said US forces "obliterated" military targets on Kharg Island but warned Iran's critical oil infrastructure could be the.

• Iran vows bigger regional retaliation: IRGC warned the UAE that US "hideouts" there are now "legitimate targets"; UAE oil port hit, and US Embassy in Baghdad catches fire after apparent drone strike.

• Heavy casualties and explosions in Iran ongoing: US-Israeli strikes have killed about 1,450 people in Iran since February 28, while "huge blasts" were reported in central Tehran after mass rallies where some Iranian leaders walked the streets in defiance.

• Oil war and extreme risk unfolds, US gas prices up: disrupted Hormuz shipping and ongoing chaos has driven US gasoline prices up 23%

• Lebanon ground and air Israel-Hezbollah war: Major Israeli strikes in Lebanon, especially on Beirut have killed at least 826 people.

• Trump rejected efforts by Middle Eastern allies to hold talks aimed at ending the war in Iran, according to Reuters.

• Oman attempted several times to open a line of communication, but the US administration has made clear it's not interested.

• Iran rejects the possibility of a ceasefire until strikes end.

• UAE suspended loading operations at a key energy export hub after a drone strike and fire on Saturday.

• Iran threatened to reduce US-linked oil facilities to a pile of ashes. 

* * *

Update(1358ET):

The semi-official Tasnim News Agency reported that U.S.-based Citibank branches in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain's capital, Manama, were targeted by drones overnight, suggesting that civilian infrastructure has not been spared in the U.S.-Iran conflict.

From data centers to skyscrapers to water desalination plants, it now appears that IRGC drone strikes are spilling over into Gulf financial infrastructure. Tasnim reported that some banks pulled staff from buildings, shifted operations remotely, and that Citibank temporarily suspended certain in-person activities in the UAE.

A Missile/drone has reportedly struck the Dubai office of Citibank, one of the largest US financial institutions operating in the Persian Gulf

Follow https://t.co/B3zXG73Jym pic.twitter.com/6xyzhUvNW9

— Press TV ?? (@PressTV) March 14, 2026

Tasnim noted that Citi is a major node in the dollar system, especially in the Gulf region, where it handles oil trade finance, dollar settlements, and services for sovereign wealth funds and multinational corporations.

* * *

Update(1255ET): While it's unclear whether this is born of desperation or it's "all part of the plan"...President Trump said Saturday he wants other countries to send warships to the Strait of Hormuz alongside the United States to break Iran's chokehold on one of the globe's most critical oil arteries.

Posting on Truth Social Saturday, he claimed that other countries "will be sending War Ships" to the region - then added he "hopefully" expects major economies to step in; however, there doesn't appear to be any 'help' on the horizon. In fact it could be the opposite, after Italy's Meloni declared her country "won't be part of an illegal war". 

"Hopefully China, France, Japan, South Korea, the UK, and others, that are affected by this artificial constraint, will send Ships to the area so that the Hormuz Strait will no longer be a threat by a Nation that has been totally decapitated," Trump wrote. But he also simultaneously made clear the US is not waiting around:

"In the meantime, the United States will be bombing the hell out of the shoreline, and continually shooting Iranian Boats and Ships out of the water,” he said. “One way or the other, we will soon get the Hormuz Strait OPEN, SAFE, and FREE!"

Despite declaring that "100% of Iran’s Military capability" has been destroyed, Trump warned Tehran could still create chaos in the narrow passage - as is indeed still playing out Saturday. This after overnight the key oil export hub of Kharg Island was heavily bombed (see below).

"It would be easy for them to send a drone or two, drop a mine, or deliver a close range missile somewhere along, or in, this Waterway, no matter how badly defeated they are," Trump stated further. He's also claimed the US Navy will begin escorting oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz "very soon" - at a moment a Marine Expeditionary Force is en route from Japan, which could take a week or less.

I would say burning ports and refineries in the Gulf today suggest that 100% of Iran’s military capability has not been destroyed. https://t.co/7CG7WGIdzh

— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) March 14, 2026

And the below was only from a day prior...

Guys, relax, the only risk in transiting the Strait of Hormuz is that Iran will shoot a missile at your ship. Otherwise it's open for transit.

An all-time quote from our Secretary of War. pic.twitter.com/kwQ5Ij84KT

— Ryan Petersen (@typesfast) March 13, 2026

* * *

In what could prove to be a major step up the escalation ladder in the two-week-old US-Israeli war on Iran, President Trump on Friday evening (notably after US market closure) announced that US Central Command had carried out a major bombing raid on Kharg Island, which handles upwards of 90% of Iran's crude oil exports. Importantly, Iran has previously warned that an attack on the island would cross a red line, and precipitate Iranian attacks on energy infrastructure up and down the Persian Gulf.  

Perhaps with that previous Iran warning in mind -- and to allay the fears of US allies in the region who don't want to see their energy facilities go up in smoke -- Trump emphasized that the attack was focused on military assets: 

"Moments ago, at my direction, the United States Central Command executed one of the most powerful bombing raids in the History of the Middle East, and totally obliterated every MILITARY target in Iran’s crown jewel, Kharg Island.

Our Weapons are the most powerful and sophisticated that the World has ever known but, for reasons of decency, I have chosen NOT to wipe out the Oil Infrastructure on the Island. However, should Iran, or anyone else, do anything to interfere with the Free and Safe Passage of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz, I will immediately reconsider this decision." 

Iran's FARS news agency confirmed the attack, saying at least 15 explosions were heard as it unfolded. FARS reports that targets included air defense assets, a naval base, an airport control tower and a helicopter hangar associated with Iranian Offshore Oil Company. The Trump administration released video highlights from the bombing raid: 

Footage has now been published by President Donald J. Trump showing today’s strikes against Iranian military targets on Kharg Island in the Northern Persian Gulf, which acts as a port hub for the export of up to 90% of oil products leaving Iran. In the footage, strikes can be… pic.twitter.com/WH3iWw74sE

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 14, 2026

Trump's threat to "reconsider" the decision not to damage the energy infrastructure on the island if Iran continues to shut down the Strait of Hormuz will surely cause deep concern among Gulf allies and everyone else who's wary of the looming global economic catastrophe that will unfold if the Persian Gulf energy shutdown persists.

* * *

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* * *

With Iran apparently bent on imposing a devastating cost for the US-Israeli war -- one that will deter future attacks -- there's little reason to think Tehran is going signal "all clear" on the strait anytime soon. 

Five miles long and situated 15 to 20 miles off the mainland-Iranian coast, Kharg Island is essential to Iran's export of petroleum. Facilities there have continued to operate throughout the war, with at least 10 tankers hauling off nearly 19 million barrels since the US-Israeli surprise attack on Feb 28. Iran has, however, sought to add a small measure of export-facility diversification, by reopening energy exports at the Jask terminal, which is southeast of the Straight of Hormuz, in the Gulf of Oman.     

Earlier on Friday, Trump said the US Navy would shortly begin escorting oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, telling reporters, "It will happen soon, very soon."  A few hours after his Kharg Island announcement, Trump reiterated his latest war-justification that centers on Iran's supposed schemes for regional conquest, posting that "Iran had plans of taking over the entire Middle East, and completely obliterating Israel. JUST LIKE IRAN ITSELF, THOSE PLANS ARE NOW DEAD!" 

The administration has reportedly contemplated seizing Kharg Island. Given its close proximity to the Iranian mainland -- which is teeming with drones, cruise missiles and weapon-bearing speedboats -- landing a strike force on the island and then occupying it could come at a high casualty rate.

On Friday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth approved a CENTCOM request for a Marine expeditionary unit to be deployed to the theater of operations. This would typically comprise some 5,000 Marines and sailors on several ships. 

Iranian armed forces statement in response to Trump's threat to attack oil infrastructure on Kharg Island (published by Iranian state media) pic.twitter.com/8J40dzIE7C

— Steve Lookner (@lookner) March 14, 2026

Some speculation on Trump White House's thinking regarding this ultra-risky Kharg Island gambit (or what might eventually prove a point of no return) via Jim Bianco:

Recognizing that this could freak out oil markets, they announced it on Friday evening to give markets 48 hours to digest the news. Trump also made it explicit that oil infrastructure would be next if Iran did not allow ships to pass freely through the Strait of Hormuz.

In football terms, they're throwing a Hail Mary pass now, hoping it works. They don't have any more time on the clock. Oil markets and the world economy cannot wait weeks or months for the military to open the Strait. Further, I could envision political advisors suggesting that if oil prices are destined to hit $200 without this action, it might as well happen next week, giving six months to bring them down before the midterm elections.

For now, though, all eyes are on Iran, and whether its leaders view a Kharg Island attack that was confined to military targets as within the red-line boundary -- or if energy assets across the region will soon be beset by drone swarms and ballistic-missile barrages, sending oil and gas prices rocketing higher. 

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Legendary financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong warned in February, “This is where the volatility starts kicking in.” 

What do we have?  Oil, gold and silver spiking in price, and violent exchanges between Iran, the United States and many other countries in the Middle East. 

Now, water assets like desalination plants in Bahrain and Iran are being blown up.  Add the worst water shortage in decades in Iran as a backdrop to constant bombing, and you have a situation that could turn very ugly, very fast. 

The water shortage is so bad that there has been water rationing in Tehran for months.  This water rationing was part of the reason there were huge protests in Iran a few months ago.  Armstrong explains:

“Part of the protests (in Iran) were about water rationing.  The Islamic Republic Guard were called the ‘water mafia.’  They control the water. 

It’s kind of like North Korea.  If you want to be fed, you join the army.  All food goes to the army first, and water will also go to the military first.”

Remember, they are water rationing in Iran now, and they don’t have a lot left.  So, what happens if the US, Israel and other Persian Gulf nations knock out what’s left of Iran’s water?  What happens if Iran is completely out of water?  Armstrong says:

“Personally, I would ask Pakistan for a nuke.  Look, you are talking about the death of a country.  When you get to that point, if you’ve got a nuke, you are going to use it.”

So, what happens if the dams and reservoirs are bombed and Iran is completely cut off from water?  Armstrong says:

“If you do that, is that a war crime because you are wiping out the average population and civilians?  Would you do that?  This is a mess.  It’s a complete mess.”

On the other side, what happens if Iran knocks out all the Persian Gulf oil refineries?  Armstrong says:

“If I were Iran, I would attack all the oil refineries of the neighboring states.  You do that, and you will bring the entire West to its knees.  The US only gets about 3% of our oil from the Middle East.  You would wipe out Europe for sure.”

Armstrong sees gold going as high as “$8,800 an ounce . . . and silver $150 per ounce. . .. Oil could test $200 a barrel. . .. It’s going to get worse this summer, and it’s a 250-year drought cycle in Iran.  I wrote about this on my site.”

In closing, Armstrong says, “Winston Churchill said, ‘In time of war, truth is very precious, and it needs a bodyguard of lies to protect it.’”

There is much more in the 54-minute interview.”

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog as he goes One-on-One with Martin Armstrong to talk about the volatility that got kicked into high gear with the bombing of Iran for 3.10.26.

Upon the overnight major US attack on Iran's key oil hub of Kharg island, here's what Iran's military is threatening to do by way of response and escalation - which was also entirely predictable:

"If Iran’s oil, economic, or energy infrastructure is attacked, we will immediately destroy energy and economic infrastructure across the region belonging to companies with American shareholders or ties to the U.S." --IRGC spox

?????????? Iranian IRGC spokesperson:

"If Iran’s oil, economic, or energy infrastructure is attacked, we will immediately destroy energy and economic infrastructure across the region belonging to companies with American shareholders or ties to the U.S."pic.twitter.com/STVoSds9qt https://t.co/Ew1rDVyi3N

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) March 14, 2026

Iran continues launching widespread missile and drone attacks on Israel and neighboring Gulf Arab states and has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has vowed that any US site or any country hosting it will feel pain. "This war proved one thing quite clearly: American bases in our region do not protect anyone – they are a threat," he wrote on X. "America sacrifices everyone for Israel and does not care about anyone but Israel."

He added, "Anyone clothed by the US is literally NAKED!" And in fact this retaliation is already in progress on Saturday. 

A missile struck a helipad inside the US Embassy compound in Baghdad, and debris from an intercepted Iranian drone hit an oil facility in the United Arab Emirates on Saturday.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has informed the United Arab Emirates that US “hideouts” are “legitimate targets” after the US struck Iran’s Kharg island. --Al Jazeera

Associated Press images meanwhile showed a column of smoke rising over the embassy compound in the Iraqi capital and a fire at the Fujairah port, offering confirmation.

Plumes of black smoke can been seen rising from the UAE’s port of Fujairah, the country’s only oil export outside the Strait of Hormuz.

The local government confirms that Iranian drones targeted the area, says that damage was from falling debris. pic.twitter.com/fQU139cgPy

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 14, 2026

President Trump had said late Friday that the US military "obliterated" targets on Iran’s Kharg Island, home to the primary terminal handling the country's oil exports. 

Additionally, an American official said 2,500 additional Marines and an amphibious assault ship are heading to the Middle East - though it remains unclear on if they will actually enter the strait, or what their mission will ultimately be.

??Another video of the damage done to the U.S embassy in Baghdad following a drone strike pic.twitter.com/jxmFK3Ot6j

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) March 14, 2026

But 'mission creep' is already happening at rapid pace, as the White House refuses to publicize an exit plan or offramp (if there even is one).

The speed of the energy shock rippling out from the U.S.-Iran conflict in the Middle East and the near-paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz forced the 32-member IEA last week to approve a 400-million-barrel release from Strategic Petroleum Reserves to help cushion the blow to the global economy. The bulk of that supply will come from the U.S., with the Trump administration preparing a request to exchange 86 million barrels of crude oil as soon as next Wednesday.

The planned U.S. SPR release of 86 million barrels of crude, part of a broader 172 million-barrel U.S. release and part of the IEA's "historic" 400-million-barrel emergency release action plan across 32 nations to shield economies from the worst energy shock ever to hit the world, has been altered by the end of the week.

Under an exchange program, the Department of Energy will allow companies to borrow crude now and return it later with additional barrels as a premium.

Bloomberg Opinion and commodities columnist Javier Blas added more color on the altered SPR plan by the DoE on X, saying:

The U.S. government seems to have changed its mind about the terms of the use of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve:

Earlier this week, it announced a SPR release (an outright sale, and the method used in the emergency actions of 1991, 2005, 2011, and 2022). But now, the DOE has published details for something different: a SPR exchange (effectively, an oil loan, with the barrels returned later with interest).

The US gov seems to have changed its mind about the terms of the use of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve:

Earlier this week, it announced a **SPR release** (an outright sale, and the method used in the emergency actions of 1991, 2005, 2011 and 2022)

But now, the DOE has… pic.twitter.com/KIo8SiFOUX

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) March 14, 2026

Secretary of Energy Chris Wright released a statement saying this SPR release will begin next week and "take approximately 120 days to deliver based on planned discharge rates."

"President Trump promised to protect America's energy security by managing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve responsibly, and this action demonstrates his commitment to that promise," Wright said.

He continued, "Unlike the previous administration, which left America's oil reserves drained and damaged, the United States has arranged to more than replace these strategic reserves with approximately 200 million barrels within the next year, 20% more barrels than will be drawn down, and at no cost to the taxpayer."

The current U.S. SPR holds about 415 million barrels, up from roughly 395 million barrels one year ago.

As JPMorgan noted last week, no matter how large the SPR release is, it would not be able to offset the biggest issue facing global energy markets: the sudden elimination of 16 million barrels currently stuck in the Gulf due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade. That's because it's not a stockpile problem, but rather a flow problem.

Beyond the incoming SPR dump, the Trump administration has taken several steps to combat triple-digit Brent and WTI prices by waiving a century-old law that requires U.S. ships to transport goods between U.S. ports, allowing domestic supplies to be shifted around more quickly. The administration then allowed Russian seaborne crude already at sea to be sold.

... and now, with a major U.S. attack on Iran's Kharg Island in the overnight hours, this will only raise more fears of tightening global supplies.