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Wed, 20 May 2026 17:20:44 +0000 Solid 7Y Auction Prices "On The Screws" With Solid Foreign Demand
Solid 7Y Auction Prices "On The Screws" With Solid Foreign Demand
Today's lone coupon auction, the sale of $16BN in 20Y notes, took place at 1pm, just an hour ahead of the FOMC Minutes release, and the auction was generally very str
Read more.....
Solid 7Y Auction Prices "On The Screws" With Solid Foreign Demand
Today's lone coupon auction, the sale of $16BN in 20Y notes, took place at 1pm, just an hour ahead of the FOMC Minutes release, and the auction was generally very strong, with maybe a one glitch.
The sale stopped at a high yield of 5.122%, up from 4.883% in April, and the second highest in the history of the 20Y auction with just the 5.257% in October '23 printing higher. The yield stopped on the screws with the When Issued 5.122%, and followed two stopping through auctions, and 11 of the past 12).
The bid to cover was 2.55, down from 2.68 in April and arguably the only weak spot in today's auction, as it was the lowest since February.
The internals were solid, with Indirects awarded 67.67%, up from 67.39% and the 63.5% recent average. And with Directs taking 22.9%, unchanged from the previous month, Dealers were left with 9.4%, down from 9.7% and one of the lowest Dealer awards on record.
Overall, this was a solid 7Y auction and one which had no problem finding buyers despite, or perhaps because of the recent surge in yields which today has reversed modestly thanks to lower oil prices.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 05/20/2026 - 13:20 Close
Wed, 20 May 2026 17:11:00 +0000 Trump Admin Announces Criminal Charges Against Raul Castro
Trump Admin Announces Criminal Charges Against Raul Castro
Update (1300ET): As we wrote earlier in anticipation, the US sought to unseal an indictment against former Cuban President Raúl Castro Read more.....
Trump Admin Announces Criminal Charges Against Raul Castro
Update (1300ET): As we wrote earlier in anticipation, the US sought to unseal an indictment against former Cuban President Raúl Castro , sharply escalating a standoff with Havana as the Trump administration attempts to force change on the island after nearly seven decades of communist rule.
The charges are related to the shooting of two humanitarian planes in 1996 .
The Department of Justice asked to unseal the indictment against Castro and five other people in a filing in federal court in Florida on Wednesday.
The indictment charges Castro with seven counts including conspiracy to kill U.S. nationals, destruction of aircraft and murder for each of the four passengers aboard the planes being flown by Brothers to the Rescue, a group that conducted rescue missions for Cuban exiles who sought to flee the country.
For 30 years, Cuban exiles in America and their representatives in Congress such Rep. Carlos Gimenez, R-Fla., pressured the DOJ to bring charges against the 94-year-old Ruz, his late brother Fidel, and others in connection with the Cuban MiG fighter jets shooting down the BTTR civilian planes when they were outside Cuban airspace and flying back toward Florida.
A number of Republican members of Congress on Wednesday morning held a press conference condemning the Communist Cuban regime and Ruz and saying they expected him to be charged. The indictment against Ruz was unsealed later in the day.
* * *
As American Greatness detailed earlier, the Trump administration is preparing to escalate pressure on Cuba’s communist regime by pursuing criminal charges against former Cuban leader Raúl Castro over the 1996 shootdown of civilian aircraft operated by a Miami-based exile group.
According to reports, the charges are expected to be announced Wednesday and would center on the incident in which Cuban fighter jets destroyed two planes flown by Brothers to the Rescue, killing all four men aboard.
The US Department of Justice is expected to make the announcement in conjunction with a ceremony hosted by the US Attorney’s Office in Miami honoring the victims of the attack.
The indictment would mark a major escalation in President Donald Trump’s campaign against the Cuban regime, which has remained in power since Fidel Castro’s communist revolution in 1959.
Raúl Castro, now 94, served as Cuba’s defense minister at the time of the attack and later succeeded his brother, Fidel Castro, as president.
The two planes belonged to Brothers to the Rescue, an organization formed by Cuban exiles in Miami that searched for refugees attempting to flee the island across the Florida Straits. Cuban authorities claimed the aircraft violated Cuban airspace and justified the attack as a defensive action.
The United States condemned the shootdown at the time and imposed sanctions on Havana, but previous administrations stopped short of criminally charging either Castro brother.
An international aviation investigation later concluded the planes were destroyed over international waters.
The expected indictment comes as the Trump administration intensifies its pressure campaign against Cuba’s socialist government. The administration has tightened sanctions and threatened penalties against countries supplying fuel to the island, worsening economic conditions and contributing to severe power shortages across Cuba.
Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez recently struck a defiant tone amid growing tensions with Washington.
“Despite the embargo, sanctions and threats of the use of force, Cuba continues on a path of sovereignty towards its socialist development,” Rodríguez said earlier this month.
The administration’s expected legal action against Castro mirrors previous moves against other anti-American socialist regimes in Latin America. Earlier this year, former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro was captured following a US military raid after being indicted on drug trafficking charges.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 05/20/2026 - 13:11 Close
Wed, 20 May 2026 17:10:00 +0000 US Marines Board Iranian Tanker As Trump Teases 'Final Stages' Of Talks, But Tehran Warns 'New War' On Horizon
US Marines Board Iranian Tanker As Trump Teases 'Final Stages' Of Talks, But Tehran Warns 'New War' On Horizon
Summary
US Marines board Iranian-flagged tanker in the Gulf of Oman, as it was accuse
Read more.....
US Marines Board Iranian Tanker As Trump Teases 'Final Stages' Of Talks, But Tehran Warns 'New War' On Horizon
Summary
US Marines board Iranian-flagged tanker in the Gulf of Oman, as it was accused of attempting to violate the US naval blockade.
Iran's parliament speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf says that Tehran sees signs that the United States is seeking to restart the war
Oil tumbles after Pakistan again touts final deal draft text imminent, followed by Trump claiming US in 'final stages' of peace talks with Iran, though Tehran hasn't budged on nuclear issue.
Tehran (IRGC) warns next round of war could spread conflict 'beyond the region' - which was cast as a threat.
Iran's IRGC Navy says 26 vessels , including oil tankers, container ships and other commercial vessels, transited in the prior 24 hours "in coordination" with Iranian authorities .
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Yes 35% · No 66%View full market & trade on Polymarket * * *
US Marines Board Iran-Flagged Tanker
The Pentagon has announced that US Marines have boarded another Iranian-flagged tanker, this time in the Gulf of Oman. It had been accused of attempting to violate the US naval blockade, after which it was boarded.
But, as CENTCOM says, "American forces released the vessel after searching and directing the ship’s crew to alter course." This as Iran's IRGC Navy says 26 vessels, including oil tankers, container ships and other commercial vessels, transited in the prior 24 hours "in coordination" with Iranian authorities (per state news).
Iran Confirms Ongoing Exchange of Messages with US
Some latest from Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: "Exchange of messages between Iranian and American sides continues based on the text of Iran's 14-point resolution." And more:
Iran's focus is on ending the war and fulfilling Iran's clear demands
The presence of the Pakistani Interior Minister is to facilitate the exchange of messages.
Baqaei: We are exchanging messages with suspicion and good intentions
Talking about ultimatums and deadlines regarding Iran is ridiculous.
Iran also says US has to prove its goodwill and stop "piracy" against Iranian ships
Ghalibaf: US Seeking To 'Start A New War'
Iran's parliament speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf says that Tehran sees signs that the United States is seeking to restart the war and still hopes the Islamic Republic will surrender :
"The enemy’s movements, both overt and clandestine, show that despite economic and political pressure, it has not abandoned its military objectives and is seeking to start a new war ," Ghalibaf said in an audio message carried by Iranian media.
"Close monitoring of the situation in the United States reinforces the possibility that they still hope for the surrender of the Iranian nation," he adds.
Trump has given Iran 'days' - or also till the start of next week to come back to the table; however, on Wednesday he's actually touting a 'final' deal draft is near, despite Iran still not budging on the nuclear issue .
Oil Plunges Further on Trump Comment
Again, possibly just more jawboning, but oil's Wednesday morning plunge deepened upon Trump touting 'final stages' of talks with Iran... all of this as usually looking very premature...
TRUMP SAYS US IN 'FINAL STAGES' OF TALKS WITH IRAN: POOL REPORT
TRUMP SAYS 'WE'LL SEE WHAT HAPPENS' W/ IRAN: POOL REPORT
TRUMP: DO WE FINISH IRAN UP OR WILL THEY SIGN, LET'S SEE
TRUMP: SEEING IN IRAN THAT US IS RESPECTED
Another Likely Premature 'Final' Peace Draft Headline, Oil Tumbles
Crude prices tumbled on a regional Al Hadath headline suggesting the "achievement of a final draft" of what will be Iran's latest peace proposal, though the recent pattern of this has shown little will likely come of it with Washington, amid ongoing apparent zero sum demands from each warring side.
Pakistani Army Chief may visit Iran tomorrow to announce achievement of final draft of agreement text. Next round of negotiations will be held in Islamabad after Hajj season: Al Hadath
Event Sources: If the Pakistani Army Chief does not head to Iran, the achievement of the final agreement formula may be announced within hours
More per Newsquawk...
[MARKET UPDATE] Brent falls in excess of USD 3/bbl, WTI slips below USD 100/bbl, Equities bid and USD hit on reports the Pakistani Army Chief may visit Iran tomorrow to announce achievement of final draft of agreement text
Pakistani Army Chief may visit Iran tomorrow to announce achievement of final draft of agreement text; The next round of negotiations will be held in Islamabad after the Hajj season (25th to 30th May), Al Hadath reports
Sources say if Pakistani Army Chief does not head to Iran, the achievement of the final agreement formula may be announced within hours.
Work is underway in earnest to put the finishing touches on the text of an agreement between Washington and Tehran.
BUT...
IRGC Warns: Next Conflict Round Could Unleash 'War Beyond the Region'
Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, has summed up where things stand: "Since the ceasefire came into effect, both Washington and Tehran appear to be operating under the illusion that time is on their side," he said . "Each seems to believe that the blockade and counter-blockade in the Strait of Hormuz impose greater costs on the other , while offering a breathing space to regroup for a possible resumption of hostilities ," Vaez told Al Jazeera.
On Wednesday Iran's Revolutionary Guards issued a fresh warning amid this ongoing standoff, warning that the Middle East war will extend beyond the region if the United States and Israel resume their attacks.
via Shutterstock
"If the aggression against Iran is repeated, the promised regional war will this time spread far beyond the region , and our devastating blows will crush you," the IRGC say in the statement published to their website Sepah News.
The warring sides are no closer to getting back to the negotiating table, after President Trump has given just a few 'days' to comply on the nuclear issue, which so far Tehran has not budged on.
But in the meantime Iran still sees American guarantees as "insufficient" regarding a renewed war, Al Arabiya reports Wednesday. The Supreme Leader, who is still in hiding and believed to be recovering from serious injuries that resulted from prior airstrikes, has issued a fresh written message to the public :
Mojtaba Khamenei has commemorated the second anniversary of the death of former President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash, saying the country is putting up a “unique historical resistance against two global terrorist armies” in Israel and the US, the Fars News Agency reports.
In another written statement, Khamenei said the war was making the burden on officials “heavier than before” , adding that he was grateful for the “unity of the nation”.
Iran: 26 Vessels Transit Strait in last 24-Hours Under its Protocol
In the Strait of Hormuz, there's been a continued trickle of tankers making it through, reportedly after Beijing asked :
Two Chinese tankers laden with oil exited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday , shipping data showed, brightening hopes that the US-Israeli conflict with Iran may soon be ?resolved after positive comments from the US president and his deputy.
President Donald Trump said on Tuesday the war would be over “very quickly” while Vice President JD Vance talked up progress in talks with Tehran about an agreement to end hostilities.
This as Iran's IRGC Navy says 26 vessels, including oil tankers, container ships and other commercial vessels, transited in the prior 24 hours "in coordination" with Iranian authorities (per SNN).
And reports of a South Korean tanker safely traversing at this point :
A South Korean oil tanker is currently passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the country’s top diplomat said on Wednesday, in a report from AFP.
“At this very moment, our oil tanker is passing through the Strait of Hormuz,” Foreign Minister Cho Hyun told lawmakers at the National Assembly in Seoul.
Ship-tracking site MarineTraffic showed the South Korea-flagged tanker Universal Winner on the eastern side of the Strait of Hormuz near the entrance to the Gulf of Oman, bound for the southeastern South Korean city of Ulsan after departing Kuwait’s Mina Al-Ahmadi port.
'Big Hit' Preparation Underway?
As a reminder of prior Trump threats this week, and the typically vague timetable, the president on Tuesday renewed warnings that he could imminently resume bombing Iran, declaring the country will face a "big hit" if it refuses to accept US demands for a deal within days.
"Well, I mean, I’m saying two or three days, maybe Friday, Saturday, Sunday, something, maybe early next week, a limited period of time, because we can’t let them have a new nuclear weapon," Trump told reporters. Trump had the day prior said he was "holding off" on striking Iran on after requests from Gulf Arab states. Then he followed by claiming the attack was moments away from being launched. "We were all set to go … It would have been happening right now."
More Latest
More latest developments via Newsquawk:
US intelligence assessment recently showed that US forces identified at least 10 mines in the Strait of Hormuz, according to CBS citing US officials.
US Senate voted 50-47 to advance war powers resolution that would end US strikes on Iran unless approved by Congress.
Iran's IRGC said that if the attack on Iran occurs again, the war will extend beyond the region, Fars News reported.
Iranian Deputy to the President Banah said Tehran is open to negotiations within national interests, Al Mayadeen reported.
Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said months after the start of the war on Iran, US Congress acknowledged the loss of dozens of aircraft worth billions, and Iran's powerful Armed Forces are confirmed as the first to strike down a touted F-35, while he added that with lessons learned and the knowledge they gained, a return to war will feature many more surprises.
Iran-Pakistan cooperation had declined/stopped over the past two weeks, Al Arabiya and Al Hadath reported citing a senior diplomatic source. A diplomatic source says Iran and Pakistan held conflicting positions on negotiation channels and the venue for talks, and says mistrust was affecting coordination between Iran and Pakistan.
Pakistan's Interior Minister Naqvi is on route to Tehran, according to Journalist Mallick.
"On the verge of a decision: Trump and Netanyahu held a phone conversation last night that was described as “lengthy and dramatic,” according to journalist Segal.
Two Chinese supertankers, carrying 4mln barrels of oil, exited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, according to tracking data. It was later reported that India was preparing to send oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz following prior reports regarding the Chinese tankers.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 05/20/2026 - 13:10 Close
Wed, 20 May 2026 17:00:00 +0000 Commercial Electricity Use Will Surpass Residential In 2027, As Price Surge Set To Continue: EIA
Commercial Electricity Use Will Surpass Residential In 2027, As Price Surge Set To Continue: EIA
Commercial Electricity Use Will Surpass Residential In 2027, As Price Surge Set To Continue: EIA
By Robert Wilson of UtilityDive
Commercial electricity consumption is likely to surpass residential use for the first time on record in 2027, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said Tuesday in its Short-Term Energy Outlook.
The commercial sector, which includes hyperscalers, bitcoin miners and cloud computing, is expected to see electricity sales grow 2.2% to about 1,530 billion kWh in 2026 — roughly the same as the residential sector — followed by 5.3% growth the following year , EIA said.
Demand from the residential sector, which has historically accounted for the largest share of U.S. electricity use, will remain largely flat over the next two years, growing about 0.5% in 2026 and 2027. Total U.S. electricity consumption in 2026 will be almost 4,250 billion kWh, up 1.3% from 2025, and is expected to grow 3.1% in 2027.
Meanwhile, U.S. residential electricity prices will continue to rise amid growing demand, particularly from the commercial sector, which includes data centers , the EIA said.
Residential customers will pay an average of 18.2 cents/kWh this year, “a nearly 5% increase from 2025, which is similar to the increase in U.S. prices between 2024 and 2025,” EIA estimated. “We expect residential prices to grow at a slightly lower rate of 2% next year.”
“Residential prices have been growing in all regions of the United States, and we expect this trend to continue,” EIA said. Areas along the East coast will experience the largest increases in residential prices, with average annual growth as high as 7% for the next two years .
“Electric utilities in these regions are citing various factors for rising electricity rates, including higher fuel prices for generation and expenses for bolstering the transmission grid against extreme weather and to accommodate rising power demand,” the short-term outlook said.
Industrial sales, the smallest of the three segments, are also rising, according to EIA. “We forecast industrial electricity consumption will grow by 1.0% in 2026 and 4.0% in 2027 to reach a total of 1,095 [billion] kWh next year,” the monthly report said. “Increases in electricity demand for both the commercial and industrial sectors is strongest in the West South Central region, driven by data center and manufacturing growth in Texas.”
Tyler Durden
Wed, 05/20/2026 - 13:00 Close
Wed, 20 May 2026 16:45:00 +0000 FOMC Minutes Preview: Look For "Easing Bias" Dissent Details Inside Powell's Hawkish Swan Song
FOMC Minutes Preview: Look For "Easing Bias" Dissent Details Inside Powell's Hawkish Swan Song
Today's FOMC minutes, released at 2pm ET, will be closely watched for further details surrounding the increasingly hawkish split within t
Read more.....
FOMC Minutes Preview: Look For "Easing Bias" Dissent Details Inside Powell's Hawkish Swan Song
Today's FOMC minutes, released at 2pm ET, will be closely watched for further details surrounding the increasingly hawkish split within the Committee following the April meeting, Jerome Powell's last as Fed Chair. With three voters dissenting against retaining the easing bias - and Fed's Collins later suggesting she would have supported removing it too - markets will look to see how broad support was for removing the easing bias, particularly after Powell said more officials now view a hike just as likely as a cut , according to Newsquawk .
Discussions around inflation risks and the labor market will also be in focus given the current macro backdrop, with the jobs market viewed as stable while inflation remains above target and faces upside risks from the Middle East conflict. Traders will also watch for any early signs of debate surrounding future balance sheet policy with Warsh set to take over as Chair from Powell .
The April FOMC statement and vote split leaned hawkish. While outgoing Governor Miran's dissent in favor of a 25bps rate cut was widely expected, three voting members (plotted below) dissented against retaining the easing bias in the statement (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan).
As a reminder:
Hammack said the easing bias was no longer appropriate given broad-based inflation pressures, higher energy prices, resilient growth and a labour market near full employment.
Kashkari said he wanted to signal growing rate hike risks, warning that a large price shock could unanchor inflation expectations and require tighter policy to defend the Fed's 2% target.
Logan dissented because she believed the Fed should not imply easing given uncertainty around the outlook, stable employment and concern about getting inflation back to 2%.
Elsewhere, the statement shifted inflation language, replacing “somewhat elevated” with “elevated”, while also attributing the move to higher global energy prices. On the Middle East, the Fed dropped the prior “uncertain implications” wording, instead stating directly that developments are “contributing to a high level of uncertainty”. Growth and labor market language was otherwise largely unchanged, with activity continuing to expand at a “solid pace” and unemployment “little changed”.
However, given energy prices have continued to rise in the wake of the meeting, and money markets are no longer pricing rate cuts this year (with markets currently discounting roughly a 60% probability of a hike by year-end), traders will look for evidence of how widespread inflation concerns were within the Committee and what conditions could push the Fed towards hikes. That said, the minutes reflect discussions held at the time of the meeting, meaning the recent hot CPI and PPI reports will not yet be incorporated.
Powell said policy remains in a “good place” to wait and see, but acknowledged the Committee is moving closer to dropping its easing bias, with more officials now viewing hikes just as likely as cuts. While he stressed no one is actively calling for hikes at present, analysts noted that the threshold for future easing has risen, with the Fed wanting more confidence around tariffs and energy prices before considering cuts. Powell also warned that core inflation risks are “real”. He added that, beyond the three official dissenters, several non-voters also favored removing the easing bias but ultimately supported the decision to hold rates.
That dynamic may create challenges for incoming Chair Warsh, whose first meeting will be in June . While Warsh has advocated lower rates, he may find limited support for a more dovish stance within the current Committee. Bowman and Waller remain among the more dovish officials, though neither has backed immediate easing in the way Miran did. Note, the latest reports suggest Kevin Warsh will be sworn in as Fed Chair this Friday at a White House event.
Additionally, Warsh has advocated for a tighter balance sheet policy . Last week, Fed Governor Barr argued that easing bank liquidity requirements to shrink the Fed's balance sheet would undermine financial stability and increase the Fed's market footprint. Barr said the 2023 banking stresses suggest liquidity requirements should rise, not fall. As such, traders will also watch the minutes for any discussion surrounding future balance sheet strategy alongside the debate over the easing bias.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 05/20/2026 - 12:45 Close
Wed, 20 May 2026 16:25:00 +0000 StanChart CEO Scrambles Into Damage Control After "Lower-Value Human Capital" Comment Triggers Backlash
StanChart CEO Scrambles Into Damage Control After "Lower-Value Human Capital" Comment Triggers Backlash
Standard Chartered CEO Bill Winters and his team spent Wednesday in damage-control mode after the head of the London-based inte
Read more.....
StanChart CEO Scrambles Into Damage Control After "Lower-Value Human Capital" Comment Triggers Backlash
Standard Chartered CEO Bill Winters and his team spent Wednesday in damage-control mode after the head of the London-based international bank told investors on Tuesday that artificial intelligence would be used to replace "lower-value human capital," sparking a backlash online.
"Many of you will have seen media coverage following the Investor Event in Hong Kong, particularly the reporting around automation, AI, and workforce changes," Winters wrote in an internal memo to employees on Wednesday that was seen by Bloomberg .
He continued, "I know this may be unsettling when reduced to simple headlines or a quote out of context."
The outrage stems from STAN's Tuesday announcement to cut 15% of its corporate roles (about 7,800 jobs) by 2030 as part of a broader efficiency push amid the adoption of AI.
During the investor event, Winters said, "It's not cost-cutting, it's replacing low-value human capital with financial and investment capital." The substitution of workers in favor of machines "will accelerate as we go forward into AI."
Bloomberg noted that Winters' memo sent to workers earlier today "adopted a more empathetic tone, emphasizing the bank's commitment to supporting its workforce during the transition."
That memo read, "We will continue to invest in technology, platforms, and automation to improve how we operate, serve clients and position the Bank for long-term growth. I want to be absolutely clear that the future of Standard Chartered depends on the talent, judgment, relationships, and commitment of you, our colleagues."
Socialists were not thrilled with Winters' "lower-value human capital" comment:
"Angry? You should be! This is how the employer described its staff: "lower-value human capital."
Beyond StanChart, corporate America is losing engineers and other white-collar workers who are burdened by insurmountable student and credit card debt as AI adoption accelerates. This era will likely be remembered as the great "white-collar purge," and the response may be continued backlash toward data centers.
Earlier today, Meta began cutting 8,000 jobs , while leaked audio of CEO Mark Zuckerberg described how AI is monitoring high-skilled employees. According to X user Official Layoff, who leaked the audio: "AI is replacing the contractor. Then the employee trains the AI. Then the AI replaces the employee."
Tyler Durden
Wed, 05/20/2026 - 12:25 Close
Wed, 20 May 2026 15:45:00 +0000 Three Supertankers Carrying 6 Million Barrels Exit Strait Of Hormuz
Three Supertankers Carrying 6 Million Barrels Exit Strait Of Hormuz
Three commercial supertankers carrying a combined 6 million barrels of Middle East crude oil have Read more.....
Three Supertankers Carrying 6 Million Barrels Exit Strait Of Hormuz
Three commercial supertankers carrying a combined 6 million barrels of Middle East crude oil have successfully exited the Strait of Hormuz, according to Reuters.
The vessels departed the strategic waterway on Wednesday, after being stranded inside the Persian Gulf for over two months, lending hope to an end to the closure of the strait.
The crude cargoes were split evenly among three Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) heading to Asian refining hubs. The first was Universal Winner, a South Korean-flagged supertanker carrying 2 million barrels of Kuwaiti crude oil . Shipping data on LSEG and Kpler showed that the vessel is currently en route to Ulsan, South Korea, to discharge at an SK Energy facility by June 9.
The second VLCC was Yuan Gui Yang, a Chinese-flagged vessel hauling 2 million barrels of Iraqi Basrah crude . Chartered by Unipec (the trading arm of Sinopec), the supertanker is heading toward Guangdong province with an expected arrival on June 4.
Finally there was Ocean Lily, a Hong Kong-flagged tanker loaded with 2 million barrels split evenly between Qatari al-Shaheen and Iraqi Basrah crude. Owned by Sinochem, the vessel is tracking toward Fujian province for a June 5 arrival.
Combined, the trio have about 6 million barrels of crude on board — one of the biggest oil flows in a single 24 hour period in over a month.
All three vessels switched off their digital transponders before exiting. Two have since transited the strait and were sighted near Oman while the status of the third is unclear. It also remains to be seen if they all can get past a seaparte US blockade. The supertanker heading to South Korea, the Universal Winner, is the first observed sailing by a VLCC to the Asian country since the war began.
Iran's state TV underscored that the country now appears to be in sole control over who crosses the strait and who doesn't. “Today other countries like South Korea, taking their example from the Chinese, coordinated with the IRGC navy and arranged the passage of their ships through the Strait of Hormuz,” the TV correspondent says in report from near the strait. “Coordination increased today and it’s expected to increase further tomorrow”
The correspondent said he witnessed five oil supertankers passing the strait with IRGC coordination, without giving further details
Meanwhile, following the footsteps of China and South Korea, India is preparing to send its own vessels through the Strait of Hormuz to load up energy cargoes from suppliers in the Middle East, Bloomberg reported; it would be the first time since the Iran conflict began that the country will do so.
State-owned Shipping Corp. of India is ready to go back to the Persian Gulf once it has approval from the Indian Navy and it has business from oil refiners, one of the people said.
Shipping through Hormuz, which handles roughly a fifth of global oil flows, has been virtually halted since the Iran war began at the end of February, causing major disruptions and price shocks for countries like India, the world’s third-largest crude importer. It’s unclear whether Iran or the US, which are separately blockading the strait and surrounding waters amid the war, have given India a green light to send ships through the waterway . Their agreement will be critical for the plan to work.
India’s External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar met his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi in New Delhi on the sidelines of a BRICS summit last week.
Recent White House briefings indicated potential progress toward an agreement to de-escalate hostilities, giving energy markets hope for a more permanent reopening of the chokepoint. Details on permanent enforcement or full reopening conditions remain sparse despite reports of Washington and Tehran having allegedly engaged in productive conversations via mediators, often with contradictory statements.
Few ships have so far managed to break through the Strait of Hormuz, with regional oil exports currently well below pre-war baselines.
Energy analysts emphasize that even if the conflict ends immediately, a backlog of structural damages and shuttered upstream infrastructure means market normalization will likely take three to four months and high oil prices are likely to persist.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 05/20/2026 - 11:45 Close
Wed, 20 May 2026 15:25:00 +0000 The AI Economy, Part 1: Looking Beyond The Facade
The AI Economy, Part 1: Looking Beyond The Facade
The AI Economy, Part 1: Looking Beyond The Facade
Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,
The US economy’s curb appeal looks great. Consider that gasoline prices are nearly $5, crude oil is trading above $100, consumer sentiment is at historically low levels, and mortgage and other interest rates have remained relatively high. Yet, despite the worrisome headwinds, the US consumer-driven economy continues to expand. However, as with a house’s curb appeal, it’s not just the headline data that defines an economy. Equally important is its supporting structure. Let’s open the door to our economy to better appreciate how AI is currently impacting it and how it may change in the future.
The question we explore here is whether the AI investment boom is genuinely broadening this country’s economic footing or weakening the labor force, the foundation of the economy.
We separate the article into two parts. Part one is the optimistic case: an AI-induced, productivity-led economic boom in which the benefits spread quickly to society. Part Two will address a more bearish outlook: the possibility of a large gap in the distribution of AI’s productivity benefits, accruing to corporations much more quickly than to employees.
AI Spending Drives GDP
The amount of capital flowing into AI infrastructure development and thus GDP is enormous. As shown in the graph below, the capital expenditures (Capex) of just four companies, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta, are now over $700 billion annually, roughly 7x what they were five years ago. Based on the 2026 Capex expectations, a third of GDP growth could come from the four companies.
The AI buildout extends well beyond the four balance sheets noted above. Every dollar of Capex spent by the large hyperscalers creates demand across a wide supply chain. For example, construction firms are building data center campuses the size of small cities, utility companies are scrambling to add generation capacity, domestic semiconductor producers are ramping up output, and fiber optic and networking suppliers have multi-year order backlogs. The electrical grid is facing its first sustained demand growth in two decades, driven almost entirely by data center power requirements, which are projected to more than double by 2030.
Historical Context
The scale of today’s AI buildout has historical precedent. For instance, the railroad expansion of the mid-1800s involved more extreme infrastructure investment, with railway Capex estimated to have consumed as much as 10-20% of GDP at its peak. A more recent and appropriate comparison is the telecom buildout of the late 1990s, when Capex peaked at roughly 1.0-1.2% of US GDP. Today’s AI infrastructure spending by just the four companies has recently surpassed that telecom figure.
But unlike the debt-fueled telecom boom, today’s AI spending has thus far been funded almost entirely by the cash and cash flows of extremely profitable corporations. While the composition of funding is shifting from cash and free cash flow to debt, the companies noted above have debt-to-equity ratios well below the S&P 500 average and significantly lower than during the telecom buildout. Moreover, earnings from other highly profitable business lines will continue to provide them with substantial cash for investment.
The Consumer Is Resilient But Running Thin
While AI spending is tremendous and boosting the economy, some argue that it is masking weaknesses in consumer spending, which is the most important contributor to economic growth. The graph below shows that consumer spending accounts for about 67% of GDP, as it has since 2001. There has been no discernible change over the last few years since the advent of AI.
While the recent contribution of consumer spending has not changed meaningfully, its sustainability is a key factor driving future growth. While consumption is holding, there are signs that the means to spend are deteriorating. For instance, the personal savings rate has fallen to near its lowest level since 1960, as shown below. This suggests that a growing share of personal consumption is being funded by drawing down savings rather than by current earnings.
Such behavior is not unusual during periods of strong employment, as consumers spend more when they are confident about their job and wage prospects. That said, a low savings rate is a yellow flag, but it has coexisted with healthy economic expansions before.
The more important gauge of future consumption is wages, which leads us to the labor market
A Churning Labor Market
AI will swallow up jobs, some pessimists say. Thus far, that is not the case. For instance, in 2025, nearly 55,000 of 1.17 million layoffs were directly attributed to AI, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Other estimates peg the number higher at 200,000–300,000 positions in 2025. While that estimate is more concerning, it is only about 0.15–0.20% of total nonfarm employment.
Looking forward, the outlook gets murky. Goldman Sachs has a dire outlook with 300 million jobs globally at risk. But that only tells half the story. The World Economic Forum (WEF) estimates that AI will create 170 million jobs globally.
There is no doubt that AI will have significant impacts on the economy, labor market, and many individuals. Prior innovations are proof. To wit, about two-thirds of US jobs in the 1940s no longer exist. The replacement jobs were enabled by new innovations.
While the future remains uncertain, the past relationship between job growth, wages, and productivity is encouraging. As we share below, PwC claims “wages are rising 2x faster in industries most vs least exposed to AI.”
Productivity Gains Will Spread
Economic growth and wage growth are a direct function of productivity. Productivity measures the amount of leverage an economy can generate from its two primary inputs, labor and capital. Without productivity, an economy is solely reliant on two limited inputs. Thus, without productivity growth, economic growth is unlikely over the long run.
Therefore, it’s critical to discuss how much productivity AI will generate and how it will be distributed. The first part, how much, is nearly impossible to assess today. That said, PwC estimates that productivity growth has nearly quadrupled in AI-exposed industries since 2022. Further:
Is AI really the cause of this surge in productivity? We can’t prove causation with certainty, but we do know that revenue growth in AI-exposed industries accelerated sharply in 2022, the year that the launch of ChatGPT 3.5 awakened the world to AI’s power. Since then, as companies have raced to leverage this technology, the value created in industries best positioned to use AI has skyrocketed. In the space of two years, industries most able to use AI have changed from productivity laggards to leaders, suggesting that investments in AI are paying off. AI’s promise is proving to be real, and we are only in the early days of AI adoption.
Regarding the distribution of productivity, some pessimists argue that AI’s productivity gains are flowing overwhelmingly to high-income knowledge workers. While that is currently true, that has also been the case with every major technology wave in its early phase. Factory automation initially benefited capital owners. Personal computers initially benefited white-collar workers. The internet initially benefited the educated and connected. But over time, prices fall, adoption rates grow, and the benefits spread across the entire workforce.
History’s verdict is consistent: the benefits start narrow and ultimately spread wide across the economy. As we share in the graphic below, as a result of the US being a global leader in innovation, our poorest states, Mississippi, West Virginia, and Arkansas, have a similar or higher GDP per capita than other large nations.
Summary
While still early in the AI revolution, the economic data points to genuine economic momentum. Whether AI productivity benefits can become more broadly based across the economy is the question that Part Two of this article addresses.
Before we present the other side, we will leave you with a PwC table that addresses concerns about productivity and the labor market.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 05/20/2026 - 11:25 Close
Wed, 20 May 2026 14:45:00 +0000 Judge Blocks ICE Agents From Conducting Arrests At Immigration Courts In New York
Judge Blocks ICE Agents From Conducting Arrests At Immigration Courts In New York
Judge Blocks ICE Agents From Conducting Arrests At Immigration Courts In New York
Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
A federal judge issued a ruling on May 18 barring federal agents from conducting arrests at three Manhattan immigration courts, except in limited circumstances.
A federal officer stands by in a hallway at New York Federal Plaza Immigration Court inside the Jacob K. Javitz Federal Building in New York on October 1, 2025. Charly Triballeau / AFP via Getty Images
The ruling by U.S. District Judge P. Kevin Castel stemmed from a lawsuit filed by the New York Civil Liberties Union and other groups on behalf of The Door and African Communities Together, which sought to challenge U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) policies that allow federal agents to arrest people in immigration courts.
Castel had initially declined to block the policy last September, but the plaintiffs later filed a motion in response to a March letter in which the government admitted that the 2025 ICE guidance—which it had relied on to justify arrests at immigration courts following the lawsuit—“does not and has never applied” to civil immigration enforcement actions at immigration courts.
In a 15-page ruling on May 18, Castel granted the plaintiffs’ request to stay the ICE policy, barring federal agents from arresting people at three Manhattan immigration courts —26 Federal Plaza, 201 Varick Street, and 290 Broadway—except under “certain enumerated circumstances.”
“There is a strong governmental interest in enforcing immigration laws. There is also a serious interest of The Door to be free to assist its members in defending removal proceedings brought against them and pursuing defensive asylum applications before an [immigration judge] without fear of arrest,” Castel stated.
The judge added that ICE agents are only allowed to make arrests at immigration courts when there are “serious threats of physical harm to public safety.”
Castel also said the government’s concession that the 2025 policies did not apply to immigration courts warranted reexamining his previous ruling “to correct a clear error and prevent a manifest injustice .”
In a March 24 letter addressed to Castel, government lawyers expressed regret over a “material mistaken statement of fact” presented to the court and said it was caused by “agency attorney error.”
“This error, however, was not caused by a lack of diligence and care by the undersigned attorneys. The undersigned were specifically informed by ICE that the 2025 ICE Guidance applied to immigration courthouse arrests,” the letter states.
Amy Belsher, director of Immigrants’ Rights Litigation at the New York Civil Liberties Union, called the latest ruling “an enormous win for noncitizen New Yorkers seeking to safely attend their immigration court proceedings.”
“We look forward to a final ruling in the case that sets aside these cruel, pointless policies once and for all ,” Belsher said in a May 18 statement.
The Epoch Times reached out to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, which oversees ICE, for comment, but did not receive a response by publication time.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 05/20/2026 - 10:45 Close
Wed, 20 May 2026 14:38:24 +0000 Oil Prices Extend Decline After The Largest Crude Inventory Drawdown In History, Cushing 'Tank Bottoms' Loom
Oil Prices Extend Decline After The Largest Crude Inventory Drawdown In History, Cushing 'Tank Bottoms' Loom
Oil futures are down bigly this morning following comments from President Trump that the war in Iran would be ended
Read more.....
Oil Prices Extend Decline After The Largest Crude Inventory Drawdown In History, Cushing 'Tank Bottoms' Loom
Oil futures are down bigly this morning following comments from President Trump that the war in Iran would be ended "very quickly," but investors remained uncertain about the potential for de-escalation.
"We're going to end that war very quickly. They want to make a deal so badly, they're tired of - this should have happened for 47 years," Trump told a group of Congress members at the White House's annual congressional picnic on Tuesday.
"Somebody should have done something about it. And it's going to happen, and it's going to happen fast. And you're going to see oil prices plummet," the president added.
Oil's declines were also reportedly driven by this optimism about a final deal draft peace agreement:
On Tuesday, two Chinese tankers carrying crude oil traversed the Strait of Hormuz.
Another, a South Korean vessel, was passing through it, according to a Reuters report. Jim Reid, of Deutsche Bank, noted that this marks "one of the busiest days since the closure."
However, Iran's Revolutionary Guards also warned on Wednesday that any renewed strikes on Iran could expand the war beyond the region .
The IRGC also said it had not used all its capacities against the U.S. and Israel, while warning that their "devastating blows will crush" the adversaries, the IRGC said in a statement on its Sepah News website.
For now, all eyes are on the official inventory and supply data (and SPR) after yuuuge draws reported by API overnight...
API
DOE
Crude stocks tumbled last week (biggest draw since Feb 13th) for the fourth week in a row. Gsoline inventories saw their 14th weekly drawdown in a row whil distillates saw another small build...
Source: Bloomberg
Strategic Petroleum Reserve drawdowns continue to accelerate with 9.92mm barrels/day - a record - drained last week. That means over 10% of the SPR has been drained in the last few weeks ...
Source: Bloomberg
Total US crude stocks including the SPR are at the lowest level since June 2025 with this week seeing the largest SPR + Commercial stock drawdown in history...
Gasoline stockpiles continued their steady decline last week, falling another 1.5 million barrels. Stocks are still at the lowest seasonal levels since 2014 .
Cushing stocks are rapidly approaching 'tank bottoms' once again...
US Crude production dipped very modestly last week...
Source: Bloomberg
WTI (July 2026) suddenly plunged below $100 just ahead of the official data (on peace deal optimism) and extended the losses after the big draw...
Finally, though the closure of the Strait has already pushed oil prices up by more than half, analytics firm Woods Mackenzie said if the war is extended until the end of the year, oil prices could rise as high as US$200 per barrel, though a quick settlement could lower Brent prices to US$80 by year end.
"The Strait of Hormuz is the most critical chokepoint in global energy markets, and a prolonged closure would become far more than an energy crisis," said Peter Martin, head of economics at Wood Mackenzie.
"The longer disruption persists, the greater the impact on energy prices, industrial activity, trade flows and global economic growth."
The market is awaiting the start of the high-demand U.S. summer driving season, which begins with this weekend's Memorial Day holiday.
It appears that American drivers will face the highest gas prices ever for Memorial Day...
...not great for Midterms/Approval ratings.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 05/20/2026 - 10:38 Close