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Tue, 07 Apr 2026 19:20:00 +0000 Antares Earns DoE's First Ever Microreactor Approval As Modi Heralds 'Defining Step In India's Nuclear Energy Journey'
Antares Earns DoE's First Ever Microreactor Approval As Modi Heralds 'Defining Step In India's Nuclear Energy Journey'
Antares Nuclear reached the most significant regulatory milestone to date for a microreactor. Th
Read more.....
Antares Earns DoE's First Ever Microreactor Approval As Modi Heralds 'Defining Step In India's Nuclear Energy Journey'
Antares Nuclear reached the most significant regulatory milestone to date for a microreactor. The company announced that its Mark-0 reactor became the first advanced reactor to receive Department of Energy approval for a Documented Safety Analysis under the new DOE-STD-1271.
The company will now proceed with preparations for taking the reactor critical for the first time . This includes forming a joint test group to oversee the startup planning and execution. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright holds permission for starting up the reactor as the Startup Approval Authority.
Bob Boston, manager of the DOE Idaho Operations Office, granted the approval of the DSA on Monday afternoon and clarified “The Department of Energy DSA is equivalent to an NRC license ”.
We have closely tracked Antares and other reactor developers in the rapidly advancing microreactor race . The company's R1 design is a sodium heat pipe cooled microreactor engineered to provide up to one megawatt of flexible, carbon-free power. It targets applications including remote communities and military installations where conventional power infrastructure is limited. BWXT is completing TRISO fuel fabrication for the pilot with a planned criticality date before July 4th .
The company stands out as an early leader in securing formal safety analysis approval ahead of other contenders such as Radiant, Valar, Aalo Atomics, and Oklo.
This development occurs just after we highlighted the Department of Energy’s requested $45 billion in nuclear funding for fiscal year 2027, and recent discussions from Jay Yu of Nano Nuclear pointing out nuclear energy's new spotlight in light of the Iran conflict.
In related international news, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that India's 500 megawatt Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor at Kalpakkam has attained criticality . The sodium-cooled fast reactor designed by BHAVINI advances the second stage of India's three-stage nuclear program and brings the country closer to utilizing its large thorium reserves in the final phase.
These advancements in both advanced microreactors and large-scale fast breeder technology reflect growing worldwide interest in expanding reliable clean baseload nuclear capacity.
Tyler Durden Tue, 04/07/2026 - 15:20 Close Tue, 07 Apr 2026 19:00:00 +0000 Oil, Inflation, & Recession
Oil, Inflation, & Recession
Oil, Inflation, & Recession
Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,
It's not the price of oil per se that triggers recession, it's the underlying vulnerabilities that have been cloaked with happy story narratives to keep the game going.
Recessions don't require a spike in the price of oil/gasoline, but spikes in energy prices trigger recessions. This makes sense, as hydrocarbons are the foundation of every industry, from the so-called "green" industries to all the high-tech industries (SpaceX, AI data centers etc.) to transport, plastics and everything else.
Recessions have other causes, of course: the business cycle of over-indebtedness and speculative excesses leading to defaults and the contraction of credit and spending, the collapse of speculative asset bubbles, the inflationary spiral of overborrowing to fund "guns and butter," and disruptive events such as plagues and wars.
Inflation reduces discretionary income as a larger share of earnings must be devoted to essentials. In a consumer economy, this reduction of discretionary income leads to households borrowing more to fill the widening gap between what they reckon is their rightful lifestyle and the purchasing power of their earnings.
This increase in debt leads to a higher percentage of net earnings being devoted to interest and principal, further reducing discretionary income. The eventual retrenchment--reducing debt by reducing spending and default--leads to a contraction in consumption, i.e. recession.
Recessions occur when a happy story about the economy that doesn't reflect reality encounters reality. Before recessions, the happy story is always the same: corporate profits are solid and rising, consumer spending is rock-solid, employment is strong, unemployment is low, the household balance sheet is healthy, technology is increasing productivity, and so on.
According to the happy story, a recession is impossible, so borrow and buy, buy, buy --stocks, houses, experiences, cruises, buy it all because the good times are permanent.
The vulnerabilities generated by over-reliance on borrowing to fund spending and the corrosive effects of inflation are buried beneath statistical trickery: add all the wealthy households to the mix and then take the average, and voila: look how rich the average household is. All is well, borrow and buy to your heart's content. Mix in hedonic adjustments and pixie-dust and voila, 8% inflation is magically reduced to 2.5%.
The suspension of disbelief / confidence is the magic of the happy story narrative. As long as people are complacent and confident, they act on the belief that their income and wealth will continue rising, enabling more borrowing and spending.
That this is not necessarily in their best interests in the long term is what must be hidden, lest they curtail borrowing and spending because the whole point of the economy is to maximize profits and this is only possible if people who don't earn enough money to spend freely borrow to spend freely.
This is where the other magic in the happy story becomes essential: the wealth effect generated by credit-asset bubbles. If people see their house and stock portfolios rising in value, they feel wealthier and are more confident in borrowing and spending because they have this wealth piling up in the background.
It's like a savings account that increases without the sacrifice of deferring consumption: in credit-asset bubbles, we get to have our cake and eat it, too.
The problem that must be hidden by the happy story is that excessive debt and speculation are self-liquidating : the machinery that makes them work self-destructs by its very nature. Debt accrues interest which reduces discretionary income which sets up contraction of credit and consumption, and all credit-asset bubbles pop, regardless of the intensity of the propaganda / happy story that this isn't a bubble, it's "capitalism" or "technology" or "animal spirits."
It's not a specific price point or metric that causes recession: it's the decay of confidence and discretionary income that leads to recession. Confidence is fragile by its very nature. We've been selected to be wary of surplus suddenly becoming scarcity, and rising prices of energy cascading through the entire economy activates a reappraisal of our complacent confidence.
Every business is hammered by rising costs for literally everything they buy to operate, and since the discretionary income of the bottom 80% is already under pressure, they can't raise prices much without losing sales.
Households feel the pinch of rising utilities and fuel immediately, and for both enterprises and households, confidence in the future is at risk of eroding like a sand castle in a rising tide.
Here is a chart of the average price of gasoline in the US from 1976 to February 2026. I've added the recent spike to the current average price of $4.11 / gallon. Interestingly, this is pretty close to the inflation-adjusted price of gasoline in the 1973-74 Gas Crisis, and the nominal price in July 2008. Adjusted for inflation, $4.11 in July 2008 is $6.11 in today's dollars.
The point I want to make here is that there is no price trigger for recession, as it depends on the underlying fragilities and vulnerabilities of the economy. Put another way, it depends on the width of the gap between the happy story narrative intended to keep confidence and complacency high and the realities of higher costs and rising debt service reducing discretionary income.
Credit-asset bubbles pop for many reasons, but what we experience is a collapse of confidence that the bubble will continue inflating, making us richer every day, in every way. The core fragility of today's economy is the expansion of consumption now depends on the spending of the top 10%, who just so happen to own the lion's share of income-producing assets such as real estate, stocks, corporate bonds and enterprises.
Once the Everything Bubble pops, the confidence of the top earners and spenders will collapse, leading to a decline in their borrowing and spending.
Oil doesn't need to hit $147/barrel and gasoline doesn't need to reach $6/gallon to trigger a recession. (Gasoline is over $6/gallon in California and over $5/gallon in states with high fuel taxes.) There is no specific price-point, any more than there is some specific metric that enables us to predict an avalanche. It all depends on the underlying vulnerabilities and excesses of the economy at that moment in time.
When he's confident, Wile can walk on air. It's when he suddenly discerns reality that his confidence vanishes. Recessions always catch conventional economists by surprise because the collapse of confidence triggers a sudden rise in unemployment and defaults and a sharp decline of credit and spending.
It's not the price of oil per se that causes a recession, it's the underlying vulnerabilities that have been cloaked with happy story narratives to keep the game going.
* * *
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Tyler Durden Tue, 04/07/2026 - 15:00 Close Tue, 07 Apr 2026 18:20:00 +0000 Petrochemical Supply Shock Begins Idling Asian Factories
Petrochemical Supply Shock Begins Idling Asian Factories
For weeks, we mapped out for readers how the Gulf energy shock dominoes would fall, spreading outward from the Middle East and striking Asia first through tightened energy-pr
Read more.....
Petrochemical Supply Shock Begins Idling Asian Factories
For weeks, we mapped out for readers how the Gulf energy shock dominoes would fall, spreading outward from the Middle East and striking Asia first through tightened energy-product flows that risk destabilizing the global economy. That transmission of tightening energy flows is now becoming alarmingly visible on factory floors across Asia.
Goldman analysts, led by Georgina Fraser, warned clients on Monday that the petrochemical shock is worsening across Asia, with textile and packaging plants emerging as the first major downstream casualties.
"The supply shock is transmitting faster and at a greater magnitude than we had anticipated ," Fraser emphasized in the note.
She said the supply shock is moving beyond higher energy prices into production cuts, margin compression, and early demand destruction, adding that "signals are materializing fastest, with textiles and packaging among the first downstream sectors affected ."
Impact chain on the Chemicals sector from the Middle East conflict
Last week, supply chain disruptions in critical plastic feedstocks began to emerge, with several producers of monoethylene glycol (MEG) and purified terephthalic acid (PTA) declaring force majeure , while tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz remained heavily disrupted. These feedstocks are essential in the production of plastics, the very material that is core to the modern economy.
Fraser noted that China's PTA supply chain accounts for roughly three-quarters of global PTA capacity. She said spot PTA prices have jumped by more than 30% since the U.S.-Iran conflict began.
At the same time, about 15% of China's PTA capacity and 11% of global capacity have been taken offline due to shutdowns and curtailments.
For context, MEG and PTA are the two primary feedstocks used to produce polyethylene terephthalate (PET) and polyester fibers. These petrochemicals are essential to the production of everyday consumer goods that make life in the developed world convenient, including plastic bottles, food packaging, clothing, home furnishings, and a wide range of consumer and industrial goods.
The analyst then shifted focus to India, where she said the first signs of a petrochemical supply shock are already emerging: In Surat, the country's main synthetic textile hub, producers have reduced operations to a single 12-hour shift , halving output as soaring plastics costs collide with weak demand.
She noted that for apparel and textiles, where petrochemical-linked inputs account for 50% to 65% of the cost of goods sold, the latest moves in raw material spot prices imply a 17% COGS shock, enough to idle less efficient plants .
Packaging is also at risk. While demand is lower for discretionary goods than for clothing, elevated price pressures in PTA and related petrochemicals threaten to spill over into food, beverage, and consumer goods packaging, increasing the odds of inflationary pass-through.
Circling back to JPMorgan's commodity expert on how the energy shock dominoes fall : Asia first (happening now), then Africa and Europe, before settling on the US - primarily California.
Source "Even an imminent end to the conflict would not fully unwind the supply chain disruption already in motion ," the analyst warned.
Professional subscribers can read the full "Petrochemical supply shock hits textiles and packaging faster and harder than anticipated " note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. Fraser
Tyler Durden Tue, 04/07/2026 - 14:20 Close Tue, 07 Apr 2026 17:40:00 +0000 Tucker Carlson Urges U.S. Officials To Defy Trump On Iran Orders: "Say No, Absolutely Not"
Tucker Carlson Urges U.S. Officials To Defy Trump On Iran Orders: "Say No, Absolutely Not"
Tucker Carlson has publicly called on White House aides and Pentagon officials to refuse President Donald Trump’s orders if they invo
Read more.....
Tucker Carlson Urges U.S. Officials To Defy Trump On Iran Orders: "Say No, Absolutely Not"
Tucker Carlson has publicly called on White House aides and Pentagon officials to refuse President Donald Trump’s orders if they involve mass attacks on Iranian civilians or the possible use of nuclear weapons , telling them to "say no, absolutely not" directly to the president and, if necessary, to "figure out the codes on the football yourself ." The remarks, made on his popular podcast, come amid the ongoing U.S.-Israel military campaign against Iran and have triggered an immediate backlash from the White House.
Carlson framed the potential escalation as “evil” and a desecration of Christian and Islamic values, specifically criticising Trump’s recent social-media rhetoric urging the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and warning that “a whole civilization will die tonight.” Carlson argued that such actions would mark “the end of the American empire as we understand it” and run directly counter to the “America First” principles Trump campaigned on.
Carlson's comments come after the US and Israel's aggressive bombing of Iran, which began with airstrikes earlier this year and has escalated into broader operations aimed at degrading Iranian military infrastructure, chemical-weapons facilities and ballistic-missile capabilities . Trump has repeatedly threatened overwhelming force if Iran does not comply with U.S. demands, while critics inside and outside the administration have questioned the intelligence justifying the campaign and warned of unintended regional fallout.
This intervention is perhaps the most high-profile act of public dissent from within Trump’s former base since the war began - as Carlson explicitly told listeners in direct contact with the president: “Those people who are in direct contact with the President need to say, ‘no, I’ll resign. I’ll do whatever I can do legally to stop this, because this is insane.’” He added that officials should refuse to carry out any nuclear-related order and leave the president to handle the nuclear “football” (the briefcase containing launch codes) himself.
Trump responded swiftly, telling the New York Post White House officials later clarified that nuclear weapons are “not under consideration.”
Needless to say, the neocons are buzzing.
Others Speaking Out
Anti-war voices across the political spectrum have amplified Carlson’s long-running opposition to the Iran war. Independent journalist Glenn Greenwald, who has appeared multiple times on Carlson’s show to discuss the conflict and related free-speech crackdowns, described Tucker’s sustained pushback against endless Middle East wars as “herculean” in late March - noting that Carlson had already “sacrificed his relationship with President Trump” by taking a public stand.
VIDEO
Greenwald has slammed Trump administration’s rapid shift from campaign promises of restraint to “large-scale military destruction, including attacks on infrastructure and natural resources,” arguing that earlier talk of “liberating Iranians” has been replaced by regime-change rhetoric that echoes past neoconservative failures.
Comedian and political commentator Jimmy Dore , a longtime vocal opponent of U.S. interventionism, has used his show in recent weeks to hammer the Iran escalation as a betrayal of Trump’s “no more forever wars” pledges . Dore has linked the conflict to rising domestic costs - particularly gasoline prices - and accused both parties of falling back into the same “war machine” trap that plagued previous administrations. In episodes leading up to Carlson’s remarks, Dore has urged viewers to pressure officials to reject illegal or immoral orders, echoing Carlson’s call for internal resistance.
Dore points out that Iran has been doing some "epic" trolling of Trump with clips that are going absolutely viral.
VIDEO
Libertarian comedian and podcaster Dave Smith - a longtime anti-war voice and frequent guest on Carlson’s show - quickly amplified the moment on X, writing: “I can’t believe how hard Tucker just went at Trump and he is legitimately a modern American hero for doing it.” Smith has been consistently criticising the Iran escalation for weeks, including in his 1 April appearance on The Tucker Carlson Show, where the two discussed Trump’s “critical next move in Iran,” the influence of Mossad and neoconservative hawks, and the unsustainable costs of another Middle East war.
And here's Smith on Tucker from last Tuesday:
VIDEO
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Tyler Durden Tue, 04/07/2026 - 13:40 Close Tue, 07 Apr 2026 17:40:00 +0000 Battle Of Narratives: Bloomberg Counters Nikkei Asia's Foldable iPhone Delay Report
Battle Of Narratives: Bloomberg Counters Nikkei Asia's Foldable iPhone Delay Report
Battle Of Narratives: Bloomberg Counters Nikkei Asia's Foldable iPhone Delay Report
Summary:
Bloomberg counters Nikkei Asia's reporting on possible foldable iPhone delays
Nikkei Asia says the foldable iPhone has hit "engineering snags," with shipment delays possible
Polymarket odds of a foldable iPhone release this year stand at 81%
Bloomberg counters Nikkei Asia's reportingHours after Nikkei Asia reported that Apple's first foldable iPhone could face delays in mass production, Bloomberg pushed back on the report, citing sources who say the foldable iPhone remains on track for a September debut alongside the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max.
Apple shares fell as much as 5.1% in the U.S. cash session after the Nikkei report raised concerns about engineering test issues with the new device, potentially delaying mass production.
Initial production could be heavily constrained by the complexity of the foldable phone, but Bloomberg's sources suggest Apple is still aiming to put it on store shelves within the same launch window as the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max.
Bloomberg's report, countering Nikkei Asia's earlier story, fits a familiar pattern of information operations, and Apple was likely not thrilled with the stock's performance after the overnight note.
Polymarket odds of the foldable iPhone launching before 2027 stood at around 81% as of early Tuesday afternoon, up from 75% during the overnight hours.
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? View full market & trade on Polymarket Nikkei Asia says the foldable iPhone has hit "engineering snags" Apple is about 8 years late to the foldable smartphone space, with Samsung's Galaxy Fold released in October 2018. Now, Tim Cook's big launch of Apple's first foldable smartphone could face "delays in its mass production and product shipment schedule ," according to new Nikkei Asia sources deep within the handset supply chain.
Supply chain sources told the Japanese business outlet that the complexity of the new foldable iPhone is causing engineering problems during early testing, and these issues could delay mass production and shipments by months.
Some suppliers have already been warned that component production schedules could be pushed back.
"It's true that more issues than expected have emerged during the early test production phase, and additional time will be needed to resolve them and make necessary adjustments. ... The current situation could put the mass production timeline at risk," one of those sources said.
The source added, "April will mark a crucial stage of the engineering verification test, and this month through early May is extremely critical."
Nikkei previously reported that Apple adjusted its iPhone launch strategy for 2026, pushing back production of base model iPhones to early 2027 to prioritize production of premium models, including foldable iPhones. This move is intended to allocate constrained supplies of memory chips and other key components more efficiently.
Another person in the handset supply chain said the potential schedule delay has very little to do with memory chips, but rather with "engineering challenges " for Apple's first foldable iPhone: "Apple and the supply chain are working under a tight timeline, and the current solutions are not enough to completely solve the engineering challenges. More time is needed."
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? View full market & trade on Polymarket Nikkei Asia's supply chain checks suggest Apple will initially produce 7 million to 8 million foldable iPhones.
Tyler Durden Tue, 04/07/2026 - 13:40 Close Tue, 07 Apr 2026 17:33:54 +0000 Stellar 3Y Auction: 2nd Most Foreign Buyers On Record, Highest Stop Through Since Feb 2025
Stellar 3Y Auction: 2nd Most Foreign Buyers On Record, Highest Stop Through Since Feb 2025
After several weeks of decidedly ugly auction which saw a notable drop in foreign demand amid what we reported a week ago was rampant selling
Read more.....
Stellar 3Y Auction: 2nd Most Foreign Buyers On Record, Highest Stop Through Since Feb 2025
After several weeks of decidedly ugly auction which saw a notable drop in foreign demand amid what we reported a week ago was rampant selling of US debt by foreign central banks , moments ago the Treasury sold 3Y notes in what may have been the best auction since the start of the war.
Just after 1pm, the US treasury sold $58BN in 3Y notes at a high yield of 3.897%, up sharply from 3.579% a month ago and the highest since last June's 3.972%. More importantly, the auction stopped through the When Issued 3.909% by 1.2bps, the biggest stop through since Feb 2025 and the 7th stop through in the past 8 auctions.
The bid to cover bounced nicely from last month's 2.546 to 2.682, the highest since November.
The internals were even stronger: indirects, or foreign central banks, came back in droves after aggressively selling US paper in recent week, and were allotted 74.8% of the auction - the highest since Sept 2024, and the second highest on record .
And with Directs awarded just 11.9%, the lowest since Sept 2024, Dealers were left holdings 13.3% or roughly in line with the recent average of 12.3%.
Overall this was a blockbuster 3Y auction, and one of the stronger for the tenor on record, although with every push higher in oil moving yields along with it, we doubt that the market cares much about the quality of today's issuance.
Tyler Durden Tue, 04/07/2026 - 13:33 Close Tue, 07 Apr 2026 17:05:00 +0000 Trump Endorses Steve Hilton In California Gubernatorial Primary
Trump Endorses Steve Hilton In California Gubernatorial Primary
Trump Endorses Steve Hilton In California Gubernatorial Primary
Authored by Dave Mason via The Center Square ,
President Donald Trump has endorsed former Fox News anchor Steve Hilton in California’s Republican gubernatorial primary.
Trump picked Hilton over the other prominent GOP candidate – Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, who is an outspoken Trump supporter.
Sunday night’s endorsement on social media comes as Democrats face the risk of being shut out of the general election for the first time in the Golden State’s history.
Besides the two Republicans, there are eight prominent Democratic candidates. Under California law, the two candidates with the highest number of votes in the June 2 primary, regardless of party affiliation, will face off in the Nov. 3 election. Hilton and Bianco could get more votes if Democrats spread their votes among the eight candidates.
And a recent University of California, Berkeley poll shows Hilton, a small business owner in addition to being a former commentator, and Bianco are ahead of the Democratic candidates.
According to the poll, Hilton has 17% of the vote, and Bianco, 16%. The leading Democratic candidates are U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell of San Francisco with 14%, former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter of Orange County with 13% and billionaire and consumer protection advocate Tom Steyer, who financed the successful campaign to pass congressional redistricting in California, with 10%.
The poll says none of the five remaining prominent Democrats – former Health Secretary Xavier Becerra, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, state Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, former state Controller Betty Yee and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan – has more than 5% of the vote.
Prediction markets see it a different way to the polls...
The Democratic Party is taking the risk seriously, with California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks urging Democrats with less support to drop out. So far, no one has budged. Hicks has said the risk of shutout is “relatively low but not impossible.”
Hicks wasn’t available for further comment on Monday, and the state Republican Party and Bianco or his campaign staff didn’t respond to The Center Square’s requests for comment.
Hilton also wasn’t available for an interview, but his spokesperson Hector Barajas emailed The Center Square a statement saying Hilton was honored to be endorsed by Trump. The candidate’s statement noted California has the nation’s highest poverty, unemployment and cost-of-living rates after 16 years of “one-party rule” by Democrats. Hilton promised to cut electric bills by half, have no taxes on the first $100,000 of income, make house purchases more affordable and reduce the cost of gas to $3 a gallon.
California consistently has had the nation’s highest gas taxes for several years, and the tax has grown more than $1 a gallon since the Feb. 28 start of the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran. On Monday, California’s average price was $5.93 a gallon, above the national average of $4.12 a gallon, according to AAA .
Roxanne Hoge, chair of the Los Angeles County Republican Party, told The Center Square that under the top-two primary system, Democrats have spent a lot of money to help Republican candidates they think they can beat in November.
“We as a party have not gotten to choose our standard bearer for a long time, from state Senate all the way up to governor,” Hoge said in a phone interview Monday afternoon. ”The fact that for the first time in hundreds of races they [Democrats] might be shut down does not fill me with great empathy or concern.”
She added two Republicans and no Democrats in the general election’s gubernatorial race would be the best outcome for California.
“I’m firmly of the opinion that either Steve Hilton or Chad Bianco — or any Republican — would be a vast improvement over the public-sector-union puppets we have running our state now,” she said.
In his endorsement on his social media platform TruthSocial , Trump said he has known and respected Hilton for many years.
“People are fleeing, crime is increasing, and Taxes are the highest of any State in the Country, maybe the World,” Trump’s post said.
“Steve can turn it around, before it is too late, and, as President, I will help him to do so! With Federal help, and a Great Governor, like Steve Hilton, California can be better than ever before!”
There’s the question of whether Trump’s endorsement of Hilton could pull enough votes away from Bianco to mean Hilton would face a Democrat in the general election. But Hoge isn’t willing to predict that would happen.
“Republicans are first and foremost rugged individuals,”
Porter, one of the leading Democratic candidates, commented on Trump’s endorsement of Hilton on social media.
“If there was any doubt what this race is about, now it’s certain: It’s California values against MAGA,” on X . “I’m running because voters are tired of the same old political games when the stakes are so much higher. They deserve a governor they can trust to fight for regular people, not just push policy agendas that only benefit corporate interests and the richest of the rich.”
Campaign staffs for some of the other leading Democratic gubernatorial candidates did not respond to The Center Square’s requests for comment Monday.
Tyler Durden Tue, 04/07/2026 - 13:05 Close Tue, 07 Apr 2026 16:35:00 +0000 US Official Cites 'Glimmer Of Progress' On Ceasefire After Trump Warns 'A Whole Civilization Will Die Tonight'
US Official Cites 'Glimmer Of Progress' On Ceasefire After Trump Warns 'A Whole Civilization Will Die Tonight'
US Official Cites 'Glimmer Of Progress' On Ceasefire After Trump Warns 'A Whole Civilization Will Die Tonight'
Summary:
Tehran Times: All communications with US side suspended - THEN ISSUES CORRECTION, REVERSES . This after Trump's Tues. morning threat: "A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again ." Axios cites "glimmer" of progress on negotiations.
In a call with FOX's Bret Baier, Trump says 8 PM deadline today "could change if negotiations move forward, but sticking to deadline for now."
Kharg Island heavily bombed in preparation for potential US Marine/Special Forces ground seizure. Reports of 'human chains' at bridges, power plants, in Iran forming.
Israel has begun attacking Iran's railway infrastructure , telling civilians to not take trains, cancelations across country.IRGC still defiant - announces new retaliatory attacks on petrochemical plants in eastern Saudi Arabia.
Iran's 10-point counter to the US 15-point ceasefire shows signs of willingness to compromise ('reparations' from US dropped as a demand). Vance says war will end "very shortly" Russia, China veto UNSC Hormuz resolution.
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Axios Cites 'Glimmer' of Progress as Trump Deadline Looms
More from Axios' Barak Ravid, though we should note that it's increasingly difficult to know what has legitimacy :
Progress has been made in the past 24 hours in the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, though reaching a ceasefire deal by President Trump's 8pm ET deadline still looks like a long shot , according to a U.S. official, an Israeli official and two other sources with knowledge of the talks.
A U.S. official said the thinking in the White House has shifted from "can we get there?" to "can we get there by 8 o'clock tonight?"
These wild headline swings (and in markets) concerning positive or negative signs on the status of indirect negotiations have been going for weeks at this point.
WH Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt thinks it's assuring to inform the public that only Trump knows "where things stand and what he will do," adding: "The Iranian regime has until 8PM Eastern Time to meet the moment and make a deal with the United States."
Russia, China Veto Hormuz Strait Resolution at UNSC On Tuesday a UN Security Council resolution on opening the Strait of Hormuz failed due to Russia and China vetoing it. It was drafted by Bahrain and authorized countries to use military force if necessary to open the strait for the free flow of shipping and commerce.
The resolution garnered 11 votes in favor, but permanent veto-wielding members China and Russia blocked it by registering no votes. This comes after days of pressure from Gulf countries to restore free passage in the strait, amid Trump's Operation Epic Fury. Russia complained that the UN res would damage "very fragile truce negotiations" by given broad allowance to use military force to reopen the waterway.
Tehran Times Reverses in Astounding Correction, Now Says Talks Are Not Closed
The NY Times had also said it only within the last hour, based on the initial headline out of Tehran, that all backchannel talks were suspended.
Tehran Times deleted this post from 2 hours ago saying all communication with US has closed.
Trump Hints at Possible Deadline Extension
In a call with FOX's Bret Baier, Trump says 8 PM deadline today "could change if negotiations move forward, but sticking to deadline for now." And yet Tehran has said it has suspended all back channel negotiations. TACO Tuesday?
TRUMP TELLS FOX NEWS IF NEGOTIATIONS ADVANCE AND THERE IS SOMETHING TANGIBLE WE MIGHT EXTEND THE DEADLINE: AL ARABIYA
Meanwhile, per news wires and CNN:
The Israeli military is on standby and ready to launch strikes on Iran ahead of US President Trump’s deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, an Israeli security source tells CNN. The Israeli security source said plans have been prepared for a combined US-lsraeli operation with full military coordination pending a green light from Trump .
Iran: All Diplomatic Channels With US Have Ceased
"Iran has closed all diplomatic and indirect channels of communication with the US ," Tehran Times "Any and all message exchanges have also been suspended."
The Tehran Times is seen as tied to the hardline factions of the government, and calls itself the "voice of the Islamic Revolution" - but is not directly state-owned per se.
The NY Times also confirms "Iran has stopped negotiating with the US and it told Pakistan that it will not continue ceasefire talks."
Meanwhile President Masoud Pezeshkian has praised the willingness of "14 million" Iranian citizens to "sacrifice" by taking to the streets , seeking to protect power plants and other sensitive vital infrastructure, as the US-Israeli bombs rain down. US conservative MSM publications have decried this as a form of "human shields".
'Human chains' seen on some bridges...
And apparently at nuclear sites...
WH Trying to Manufacture 'Mission Accomplished'? Vance Says Objectives Completed
Vice President JD Vance has said that "very shortly" this war will be "completed" in a Tuesday morning statement. He stated specifically that the military objectives have been accomplished, adding there are "two pathways" - and that optimistically this will involve "lots of negotiations" - but with a deadline of 8pm ET. The US is "confident it will get an Iran response."
The below is from Hala Jaber, a longtime Sunday Times journalist and veteran Middle East war correspondent :
Trump is scrambling behind the scenes for a ceasefire with Iran , according to claims emerging via Fars News Agency . Allegations point to urgent outreach through multiple governments & intelligence channels. Citing what it describes as an “informed source,” the report claims the U.S. has been pushing for a ceasefire via backchannels, using countries it believes have credibility with Tehran.
According to the same account, Iran received calls from five heads of government & eight intelligence agencies, all seeking to open a path toward a ceasefire. It further claims Washington is considering reshaping its negotiation team, including removing Witkoff due to his ties to Netanyahu’s circle & replacing him with Vance to lead a more serious track . The urgency, the source says, is driven by mounting military & economic pressure, including fears of surging fuel prices. If true, it would mark a stark contrast to the public posture .
Trump: A Whole Civilization Will Die Tonight
Trump seems to be openly announcing plans for genocide - saying he's going to annihilate an entire civilization. What else do you call this? "A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again . I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will," he threatened in a Tuesday Truth Social Post. "However, now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS?" - he continued.
Meanwhile, according to The Associated Press:
Airstrikes pounded Tehran on Tuesday, and Iranian officials urged young people to form human chains to protect power plants , hours before the expiration of U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest deadline for the Islamic Republic to reopen the crucial Strait of Hormuz or face punishing strikes on its infrastructure.
Kharg Island Bombed (Again)
Kharg Island is being bombed again on Tuesday, with a senior US officials telling Fox's Jennifer Griffin that the "U.S. hit dozens of military targets on Kharg Island overnight." Per the fresh reporting the targets included bunkers, a radar station, and ammunition storage .
However, the same officials described that landing docks were not intentionally targeted - that they only would have been struck if Iranians fired something from next to them. This development has led to speculation that this could be another round of softening operations to prepare for some kind of US Marine or special forces seizure.
This send oil back to the highs...
This would without doubt be very high risk, with the potential for significant US casualties. More from Griffin :
The strikes on Kharg Island were carried out solely by the US, not Israel, I am told. “This is a message to the Iranians,” a senior US official told me.
Axios cites a US official to say the strikes on Kharg island were not directed at oil infrastructure, but were "re-strikes" on military targets that were hit previously.
Bridges, Power Plants, Tit-For-Tat Warning
President Trump has been warning of the "complete demolition" of Iran’s power plants and bridges in a matter of hours - so by Tuesday's end - if the Strait of Hormuz is not fully reopened by his deadline. Qatar's Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Majed al-Ansari, is urging some last minute diplomatic action, warning, "We are close to the point where the situation in the region could spiral out of control." There have meanwhile been reports of more Iranian attacks on Qatar. "There are no winners if this war continues," he said.
But Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is not backing down, having on Tuesday claimed responsibility for attacks on petrochemical facilities in Saudi Arabia’s Jubail region , stating the strikes were retaliation for earlier Israeli attacks on its Shiraz petrochemical facility.
Iranian officials have repeatedly warned that any strikes on Iranian power plants and bridges would trigger reciprocal attacks on regional infrastructure. The IRGC stated it targeted American companies in Jubail with missiles and drones, including Sadra, ExxonMobil, and Dark Chemical .
Images posted online show damage to a highway bridge between the northwestern Iranian cities of Hashtroud and Tabriz, following apparent Israeli strikes.
It also stated that a petrochemical complex in Juaymah belonging to the US company Shourdan Phillips was struck with medium-range missiles and drones.
Israeli Attacks on Iran Rail, Infrastructure Have Already Begun
Iran's Mehr News Agency is reporting attacks on Iran's rail system, including an Israeli strike hit the Yahya Abad railway bridge in the city of Kashan, in central Iran . The Deputy Governor of Isfahan has said that the strike killed two people .
The attack came after the IDF issued a warning telling Iranians against using trains for their "safety" until 9pm local time (17:30 GMT).
The governor of Mashhad has already announced the immediate suspension of all rail services departing the city amid the Israeli threat. It's being reported as a precautionary measure that will remain in effect "until further notice". Apparently this rail operation is being done only by the Israeli side of the bombing campaign.
More on Iran's 10-Point Response to US Ceasefire Plan
Iran has delivered its highly anticipated "10-point" response to the US' "15-point peace plan." Iran's 10-point plan includes, according to a paraphrase :
1. Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again
2. Permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire
3. End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon
4. Lifting of all US sanctions on Iran
5. End to all regional fighting against Iranian allies
6. In return, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz
7. Iran would impose a Hormuz fee of $2 million per ship
8. Iran would split these fees with Oman
9. Iran to provide rules for safe passage through Hormuz
10. Iran to use Hormuz fees for reconstruction instead of reparations
Importantly, Tehran has dropped its demand for full war reconstruction reparations to be paid directly by the United States, providing a potential window to reach actual compromise with Washington.
75 Gulf Energy Assets Damaged In U.S.-Iran War As Supply Shock Intensifies
International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol was interviewed by the French newspaper Le Figaro is more severe than those of 1973, 1979, and 2022 combined " because it is affecting oil, gas, food, fertilizers, petrochemicals, helium, and global trade all at once.
Birol said in the interview that more than 75 energy sites across the Gulf region have been attacked, with about a third severely damaged, suggesting tens of billions of dollars in repairs and a prolonged disruption of some energy flows, further tightening global supplies and compounding the disruption at the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint.
The newspaper asked Birol, "How quickly can Gulf production recover?"
He responded:
"We are monitoring energy infrastructure in real time—fields, refineries, terminals. Seventy-five facilities have been attacked and damaged, more than a third severely. Repairs will take a long time. Countries like Saudi Arabia may recover faster due to strong engineering capabilities and financial resources, but elsewhere, such as Iraq, the situation is far worse. About 15 million people depend on oil and gas revenues there, and the country has lost two-thirds of its oil income, approaching economic paralysis. It will take a long time for the Middle East—previously a reliable energy hub—to recover."
Cherry-picking the most important parts of the interview:
Le Figaro asked: Who will suffer the most?
Birol responded: The global economy will suffer. Of course, European countries will struggle, as will Japan, Australia, and others. But developing countries will be the most affected due to high oil, gas, and food prices, and accelerating inflation. Their economic growth will be heavily impacted. I fear many developing countries will see their external debt rise significantly. That is why I am pessimistic—this crisis stems not from energy itself, but from geopolitics.
Le Figaro asked: Which countries are most exposed to shortages?
Birol responded: Import-dependent countries are most exposed: in Asia—South Korea, Japan, but especially Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. African countries will also be heavily affected, as developing nations have limited financial flexibility.
Le Figaro asked: How quickly can Gulf production recover?
Birol responded: We are monitoring energy infrastructure in real time—fields, refineries, terminals. Seventy-five facilities have been attacked and damaged, more than a third severely. Repairs will take a long time. Countries like Saudi Arabia may recover faster due to strong engineering capabilities and financial resources, but elsewhere, such as Iraq, the situation is far worse. About 15 million people depend on oil and gas revenues there, and the country has lost two-thirds of its oil income, approaching economic paralysis. It will take a long time for the Middle East—previously a reliable energy hub—to recover.
Le Figaro asked: How significant is the drop in Gulf oil production?
Birol responded: Enormous. These countries are producing just over half of pre-war levels. As for natural gas, exports have stopped entirely. March was already difficult, but April will be worse. If the Strait remains closed throughout April, we will lose twice as much crude and refined products as in March. We are entering a "black April." In the Northern Hemisphere, April usually marks spring—but now it may feel like the beginning of winter.
Birol has painted a bleak outlook for energy markets and the global economy for weeks in various interviews.
However, emerging through the fog of war, the U.S. appears poised to be a net beneficiary of the chaos across the Gulf, with energy flows expected to remain disrupted for some time.
A reminder to readers of JPMorgan's note last week, mapping how the energy shock dominoes begin to fall. Read it here .
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Tyler Durden Tue, 04/07/2026 - 12:35 Close Tue, 07 Apr 2026 16:25:00 +0000 Russia, China Veto UN Res Authorizing Military Force To Reopen Hormuz Strait
Russia, China Veto UN Res Authorizing Military Force To Reopen Hormuz Strait
On Tuesday a UN Security Council resolution on opening the Strait of Hormuz failed due to Russia and China vetoing it. It was drafted by Bahrain and Read more.....
Russia, China Veto UN Res Authorizing Military Force To Reopen Hormuz Strait
On Tuesday a UN Security Council resolution on opening the Strait of Hormuz failed due to Russia and China vetoing it. It was drafted by Bahrain and authorized countries to use military force if necessary to open the strait for the free flow of shipping and commerce.
The resolution garnered 11 votes in favor, but permanent veto-wielding members China and Russia blocked it by registering no votes. This comes after days of pressure from Gulf countries to restore free passage in the strait, amid Trump's Operation Epic Fury.
UN image Secretary General of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Jasem Mohamed Al-Budaiwi earlier in the week lamented, "Our countries are subjected to a sinful Iranian aggression, and GCC countries have a legitimate right to self-defense. The Security Council must take measures to ensure the protection of waterways, and we demand that the Security Council issue a resolution securing freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz."
And Bahrain's Foreign Minister, Abdullatif bin Rashid Al Zayani, stated "Iranian attacks on neighboring countries cannot be justified. The draft resolution is consistent with international law and looks forward to a unified position."
From Moscow and Beijing's point of view, the resolution could be used to escalate US-Israeli aggression against the Islamic Republic :
It appears that China and Russia expressed concerns about the invocation of Chapter VII, arguing that such authorization could be interpreted as legitimizing the use of force by member states without clearly defined limits . They also raised concerns about the potential imposition of sanctions and maintained that the draft failed to address the root causes of the current crisis in the Middle East. In their view, the text risked exacerbating tensions rather than promoting de-escalation, and they urged Bahrain not to advance the initiative. These reservations led China and Russia to break silence twice.
Also, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has stated that if resolution passed it would disrupt "very fragile chances for negotiations."
So essentially Russia and China viewed it as a 'pro-war' mandate which is too sympathetic to Washington's aims in Iran.
President Trump has meanwhile been busy venting his frustration at the ongoing closure of the strait, warning Iran that its "whole civilization will die tonight" if it doesn't agree to Washington's ceasefire terms. Tehran has said it is only interested in a permanent truce which ensures it never gets attacked again.
Tyler Durden Tue, 04/07/2026 - 12:25 Close Tue, 07 Apr 2026 16:10:00 +0000 NY Fed: Inflation Expectations Jump, Driven By Surging Gas
NY Fed: Inflation Expectations Jump, Driven By Surging Gas
Ahead of Friday's CPI report, inflation fears are already rising, with the NY Fed's latest monthly survey of consumer expectations reporting that Inflation expectations at t
Read more.....
NY Fed: Inflation Expectations Jump, Driven By Surging Gas
Ahead of Friday's CPI report, inflation fears are already rising, with the NY Fed's latest monthly survey of consumer expectations reporting that Inflation expectations at the one-year horizon were higher at 3.42% in March from the previous month’s 3.00%, matching the highest since April '25. Inflation expectations also increased by 0.1% to 3.1% at the three-year-ahead horizon, and were unchanged at 3.0% at the five-year-ahead horizon in March.
The jump in year-ahead expectations was driven by a surge in gas inflation which rose 5.3% to 9.4%, the highest reading since March 2022.
Other commodity price change expectations also rose, but to a more limited degree: food prices are now expected to rise 6%; medical costs to rise 9.7%; the price of a college education to rise 9%; rent prices to rise 7.1%.
Turning to the labor market, sentiment is deteriorating fast with respondents saying that the mean probability the US unemployment rate will be higher next year rose 3.6% to 43.5%; highest reading since April 2025
On the other end, median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations decreased by 0.1% point to 2.4% in March, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 2.6% and at the low end of its range seen since May 2021 of 2.4% to 3.0%.
More bad news: the mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months increased by 0.6 percentage point to 14.4%. The reading remains below the series’ 12-month trailing average of 14.6%. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily, or the expected quit rate, in the next 12 months also increased by 2.4 percentage points to 18.3%.
The mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost increased by 1.9 percentage points to 45.9%, while remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 47.5%. The increase was broad-based across age, education, and income groups.
Perceptions about households’ current financial situations also deteriorated compared to a year ago, with a larger share of households reporting a worse financial situation and a smaller share reporting a better financial situation. Year-ahead expectations about households’ financial situations also worsened, with the share of households expecting a worse financial situation at its highest level since April 2025, and a smaller share of households expecting a better financial situation in one year from now.
Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago improved, with a smaller share of households reporting it is harder to get credit and a larger share of households reporting it is easier to get credit. Expectations for future credit availability slightly deteriorated, with the net share of respondents expecting it will be harder to obtain credit in the year ahead increasing.
The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months increased by 0.7 percentage point to 12.3%, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 13.2%. The increase was most pronounced for respondents above age 60, those with some college education, and those with annual household incomes below $50,000.
And some more Household Finance observations:
The median expectation regarding a year-ahead change in taxes at current income level decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 3.1%.
Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt increased by 0.6 percentage point to 9.8%, remaining well above the 12-month trailing average of 7.4%.
The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months remained unchanged at 24.9%.
The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 36.3%.
More in the full report from the NY Fed .
Tyler Durden Tue, 04/07/2026 - 12:10 Close
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