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Peter Tchir, Academy Securities — November 15, 2026

Last weekend we went with A Lot To Digest. Not only are markets trying to figure out the economic and market outlook post midterm elections, but we also had software outages, a nationwide ground stop, and the CEO of one of the most important companies in the world resign.

Chinese Compute

Our week was meant to start at 5 a.m. on CNBC on Monday to discuss a variety of macro and geopolitical issues. But, with news breaking that the CEO confirmed a relationship (with someone alleged to be a Chinese spy), we got pushed to later in the show. Though, of course, the first question in our segment was still about Jensen. On Thursday we went on Bloomberg TV knowing full well that we would be talking about the developing situation around Jensen. I think we handled the subject well under the circumstances. Academy continues to be at the forefront of examining the National Security issues surrounding the compute build-out.

We have highlighted the threat (to the economy and market valuations) of Cheap Chinese Compute and China’s willingness to “distill” their models on existing models to reduce time and cost in training. We are comparing the risk to other periods where China grew to dominate industries (from basic manufacturing, to large swaths of global telecom, to the processing and refining of rare earths and critical minerals, and more recently, EV production). In each case China follows a pattern:

• A Persistent, coordinated, and well-planned effort (nothing wrong with that).
• Government support, often to the point of contravening global rules, but since no one tried to enforce the rules, I guess that is on “us” collectively.
• Intellectual Property “accumulation.” Where China was deficient in IP, they would make a great effort to catch up. Once IP is out there, it is easier to replicate, especially if you play loose with rules around patents, etc. There is also evidence that China (directly or indirectly) accumulated IP via theft, presumably both electronically and via human intelligence. This is something the Geopolitical Intelligence Group at Academy is well aware of, and is involved, in many cases, in efforts to protect what “we” collectively have.
• Take advantage of the “edge” they have. In this case an abundance of engineers, no concept of “not in my backyard” to slow growth, and readily available energy, with a relatively up-to-date grid. I am not saying I like that citizens have few rights in China to stop construction, as it is central to our way of life to protect individuals’ rights, but it is an “advantage” when trying to build out industry rapidly.

The allegations that the woman in question was a spy may or may not turn out to be true. While that distinction will be important for those directly involved, it is a good wake-up call to focus on China’s “all-in” efforts to grow their compute capability.

Veterans Day

At Academy, where ~50% of the company served, Veterans Day is always an important day. And after the previous section, which was kind of “heavy,” I wanted to share a few things from this Veterans Day for Academy.

The team in Chicago rang the opening bell at the Cboe.

While that was very cool, I really wanted to highlight two other teammates.

Probably not the first time Phil McConkey has lit up Times Square, but still very cool to see! The big smile on Phil’s face may be because his two teams, the Giants and the Bills, are both atop their divisions.

Rachel Washburn’s story is even more interesting. She is the Philadelphia Eagles’ nominee for the NFL’s Salute to Service Award. This link pulls up Rachel’s bio and gives you the opportunity to vote for her! (Yes, it is a bit painful to vote for anything with the Eagles, but if you are ever going to do it, now is the time, and yes, voting is still open).

Her service in Afghanistan is amazing and her work for the Eagles is pretty cool too. ??

One other observation, and maybe it is anecdotal, but it seemed that the Commonwealth countries at the very least stepped up their Remembrance Day activities (as did the countries that call it Armistice Day). Maybe recognizing the need to spend and defend has helped increase pride in their military past and future? When discussing this, many people said they noted the same.

Maybe a great reminder of how so many countries pulled together to defeat a common enemy, and a sign of good things to come!

I have to admit, I am kind of unmotivated to finish the report, as anything else I write will be less interesting than what we covered in this section.

ProSec Post Midterms

We will do a longer, more detailed report on the state of ProSec as we enter the holiday season.

In the meantime, if I was asked what is most noticeable about ProSec right now, my answer would be a resounding “It Has Gone Global!”

Maybe it seems counterintuitive to talk about “going global” in a section that hints at analyzing the midterm election’s impact on ProSec™, but I think it is extremely relevant. We have been arguing for months now that there are global investment opportunities as country after country, and region after region, understand the necessity of doing more on their own and harnessing their own resources when it is viable.

U.S. stocks were up this week (though not without some indigestion), but European stock markets outperformed. Looking at a broad set of European indices versus U.S. indices, Europe has now outperformed over a week, a month, 3 months, and 6 months. Which brings me to this chart. Name this ETF:

In black, we have the well-known Nasdaq 100 ETF. In light blue, we have an ETF that outperformed the Nasdaq 100 over 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year periods. What sort of sorcery is this? The ETF in black includes the stocks that have driven the U.S. to its technological height!

I will admit that the total market cap of the stocks in the “mystery” ETF probably doesn’t add up to a fraction of the market cap of any of the Nasdaq 100 leaders, so it would be difficult to have put this trade on in size, but I think it is eye-opening.

If you guessed the ETF is EPOL, I’d be shocked. It is “nichy” even to the ETF “nerds” I follow (yes, that is the name of the Bloomberg Group chat, so I can say the word “nerd”). It is just over $1 billion in AUM and is the iShares MSCI Poland ETF. I’d be challenged to pronounce some of the names in the ETF and I can speak Ukrainian (Powszechna Kasa Oszczednosci Bank Polski SA is the largest holding), but I think it is relevant to what we have been discussing.

I see Poland as an emerging force within Europe. We have been talking about the job Poland has done since Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine in February 2022.

When I look at Europe regarding ProSec, I see them moving in the right direction. A bit tentatively, with too many restrictions/reservations so far, but it is early. Many countries are facing the task of altering policies that have been in place for years or even decades to re-industrialize and harness/re-harness their resources. Poland has had a head start and I believe it will play an even bigger role in Europe after any sort of deal is reached between Russia and Ukraine.

So, when I think of ProSec, I think it has made the leap from the U.S. government, to U.S. corporations and investors, to global and will continue to grow, in part because being resilient and secure are such basic concepts that ProSec helps achieve.

Domestically, I am very optimistic that the new Congress will get together and take some positive steps on trade and tariffs. In my vision for ProSec, trade plays a crucial role. Not everything can be done domestically. Trade will still be crucial to the success of nations. While there will be “vertical integration” within nations, there will be plenty of opportunity for trade. Who you trade with will likely change (consideration over shipping lanes and the potential bad behavior of trading partners is now a more realistic part of any relationship). Needing a “core” of domestic production doesn’t exclude working with others. Also, so many of the things we discuss will take years and years to build out domestically (not just in the U.S. but also in other countries).

I have not been a fan of current trade or tariff policy. We won’t rehash what you can read in last weekend’s report.

I am probably a bit optimistic about D.C., but I think we get the left side of the picture rather than the right side of this picture.

Friction is good and can be productive. Fighting isn’t.

When I look at the election results, I see results that tell me “fixing” trade with Canada and Mexico, at the very least, has support. Many of the “flipped” states border on one or the other. The “agricultural-focused states” flipped too. Yes, the war in Iran and the cost of diesel had a lot to do with it, but tariffs on potash, retaliatory tariffs, and policies didn’t help either. I don’t know what can happen, but maybe some sort of veto-proof legislation to extend USMCA (which the President did negotiate and claimed was great, not that long ago) could be the outcome?

Probably too optimistic, but not only is ProSec replacing ESG in how companies, investors, and countries think, it is also going global and I think (hope) that peak trade wars away from China are almost behind us.

Bottom Line

The Fed will hike 25 bps in December unless there is a deal with Iran. While it seemed “civilized” on the surface, many longtime Fed watchers thought the statements this week were more along the lines of something we’d see on the Kardashians (wow, it has been a long time since I mentioned them) than typical Fed speeches. It is clear that some want to provide forward guidance (despite the Chair not wishing to do so) and that maybe the discussions at the last meeting, where the decision was made not to hike, were more contentious than we were led to believe. With 10-year Treasury yields back above 5%, I’d be getting longer duration again. The Big Beautiful Bill did many things, one of which was front-load some of the benefits to boost the economy this year, so we should see some easing on inflation (and the deficit) as we start 2027.

Credit spreads seem almost “boring” again. I guess that is a good thing, though deep down, I like volatility in credit markets.

The compute build will continue post midterms. Some areas will embrace the opportunity to welcome compute while other areas fight it. Even the areas that voted against it are likely to sit down at the table and decide what compute will be built, where it will be built, and the burden sharing (water, electricity, etc.) will likely shift towards the compute side rather than the populace, but I don’t see the elections changing the overall trajectory of the compute build.

If there is a slowdown, it will be because of the industry itself, or because credit markets push back too much, or, in the short term, if the Anthropic IPO doesn’t go according to plan. So far none of those things seems to be occurring. If anything, the amount of compute used to generate AI video memes this week was off the charts! A lot of creativity out there.

I remain wary about the pace of development of Cheap Chinese Compute and think that is the biggest threat to current valuations, though after so much selling pressure in the AI and chip sectors, there is, once again, lots of upside potential. Not sure we are out of the woods yet, but the SOX index finishing up on the week was good, and the Nasdaq 100 is hovering right around the 200-day moving average; if it can get above and stay above, that would be a signal I’d want to follow (again, we are stuck talking about technicals as a guide more than usual, but c’est la vie in chaotic markets).

The opportunity for global growth (outside of China) is looking better and better. U.S. markets will benefit given the global nature of our companies. Any easing on trade “wars” would be a good thing for affordability and the economy!

Vote early and often! For Rachel that is, where the NFL does let you vote once a day. 

Looking forward to spending the week in our Del Mar office, assuming flights are operating normally!

Nvidia does not have directors’ and officers’ (D&O) liability insurance covering the company itself, an unusual omission for a major US-listed corporation that could leave the chipmaker facing substantial legal costs amid the controversy surrounding former chief executive Jensen Huang, according to Financial Times.

The FT writes that while Nvidia reportedly maintains $900mn in insurance protecting its directors and senior executives from personal liability, the policy does not extend to the company’s own financial exposure. The coverage, arranged through Aon and involving insurers including Beazley, AIG and Chubb, is limited to what the industry calls Side A protection.

Most large publicly traded US companies also purchase Side B and Side C insurance, which can reimburse corporate legal expenses and cover certain claims brought directly against the company. Nvidia’s decision to operate without these protections is uncommon, although high premiums can lead some businesses to retain such risks themselves.

The insurance gap has gained attention following Huang’s abrupt resignation and a subsequent shareholder lawsuit. Investors accuse Nvidia and its former chief executive of providing misleading information concerning Huang’s relationship with a woman suspected by US authorities of acting as a Chinese intelligence operative.

Nvidia shares dropped 4.3% following the revelations, wiping nearly $200bn from the company's market capitalisation. The decline could increase the risk of further securities litigation, potentially leaving Nvidia responsible for legal expenses and settlements that broader D&O coverage might otherwise absorb.

The controversy began after Huang acknowledged having extramarital relationships, including one with the woman allegedly linked to Chinese intelligence. The disclosures prompted his departure from the company he helped establish and raised questions about corporate governance, executive judgment and potential national security implications.

The episode represents a significant reputational challenge for Nvidia, whose advanced semiconductors occupy a central position in the global artificial intelligence industry. Beyond the immediate market reaction, the scandal has brought renewed scrutiny to the company's leadership, disclosure practices and oversight of senior executives.

With shareholder litigation already under way, Nvidia now faces the prospect of managing both a leadership crisis and potentially costly legal proceedings without the corporate insurance protection commonly maintained by its peers.

Corporate D&O insurance is not always essential for companies with substantial cash reserves and strong balance sheets. Large, financially secure businesses such as Nvidia may choose to absorb litigation costs and potential settlements themselves rather than pay significant premiums for additional coverage. 

While this approach increases direct financial exposure, it can be a reasonable trade-off for companies with sufficient resources to fund their own legal defense. We may soon find out if it was worth it or not for Nvidia...

Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

I’ve been warning about the continued risks surrounding AI steadily since August, and I continue to believe we’re going to see more bad news from the sector that has driven the bull market of the last few years. 

I also think more bad news is coming for Nvidia and I’ve also warned about crypto, and the shaky price action we saw this weekend reinforces my view that more volatility and downside could be ahead.

I know, it’s a downer for a Sunday morning. And spoiler alert: today’s column isn’t going to be bright and cheery, either. Hey…if I have to suffer on Sundays as an Eagles fan this year, I’m insisting you must suffer, too.

But in all seriousness, today I’m going to focus on a concern I’ve had dating back for the last year or so in an area that isn’t talked about much, but where a deluge of newly released data is giving cause for some nascent concern: housing.

Financial stress doesn’t necessarily remain confined to one asset class. It’s the reason I’ve been barking about commercial real estate, subprime auto paper, regional banks, equities, crypto and bonds for the last year. Today I’m going to bark about housing.

Weakness in speculative investments can coincide with a broader pullback in risk-taking, tighter credit conditions, and more cautious consumer behavior. That doesn’t mean declining crypto prices automatically translate into falling home prices, but it’s worth considering how financial pressure moves through household balance sheets, particularly when housing affordability is already stretched.

There’s a general sequence that often develops when people need cash. They typically begin with their most liquid assets…first stocks, crypto, and other investments that can be sold quickly. Cashing out CDs, savings accounts and the likes. Then, when cash is scarce, they sell the dung heap of crap they’ve been amassing…their collection of Jordans or Pokemon cards or Steve Wilkos show official memorabilia (or whatever the hell ‘collector’ shit is in in the year 2026) …then their new consumer electronics they just bought for themselves on credit that they don’t need.

“Get the hell off my stage! You don’t deserve a chair!”

As financial pressure builds, some households increasingly rely on credit cards, followed by unsecured personal loans when additional borrowing is available. Eventually, larger assets such as cars, boats, or other possessions may be sold to generate cash or reduce monthly expenses.

Housing often comes way later in that process. Selling a home takes time, involves substantial transaction costs, and may require finding somewhere else to live. Homeowners generally have strong incentives to avoid selling unless circumstances require it. But prolonged financial stress can eventually lead to more listings, increased borrowing against home equity, missed HELOC or mortgage payments, and forced sales.

Housing has historically experienced long boom-and-bust cycles, sometimes spanning 15 to 20 years or more, although there is no fixed timetable. We’re now approaching 20 years since the 2007–2008 housing crisis, making it worth considering where we stand in the current cycle. Not every household follows the same financial progression, but housing often responds to economic deterioration with a significant lag, which is precisely why the emerging weakness in today’s data deserves attention.

I’ll say up front these are not “outright panic” numbers. But they are a collection of multiple newly released data points all heading in the very wrong direction at the same time peoples’ retirement accounts and stock portfolios are starting to come under pressure. And the point of this “fringe” blog that I write is to be early…very early…in pointing out trends.

So think of this data not as definitive proof we’re going to see a housing crash, but maybe a damn important ingredient in a potential recipe for a perfect storm at some point that may start a housing correction in 2027.

The latest debt data suggests some of that financial pressure is already building, according to Bloomberg. Per the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s third-quarter Household Debt and Credit report, released November 10, the share of overdue consumer loans increased to 5% from 4.7% in the previous quarter, while total household debt rose 1.8% to $19.1 trillion.

Separately, Urban Institute research found that 5.8% of Americans had at least some delinquent credit card debt, compared with 4.3% in August 2019. Approximately 5.5% had delinquent auto or retail loans, up from 3.9% before the pandemic. These figures suggest that financial pressure is extending beyond housing and affecting multiple categories of household borrowing.

More concerning for housing, the share of mortgage balances more than 90 days overdue reached 1.13%, its highest level since the first quarter of 2018.

Meanwhile, outstanding home equity line of credit balances increased by $23 billion during the quarter, the largest quarterly increase since 2005 and the 18th consecutive quarter of growth.

Rising HELOC balances don’t necessarily indicate financial distress, since homeowners also borrow against equity for renovations and other expenses. And New York Fed researchers emphasized that overall mortgage credit quality remains strong. Nevertheless, the combination of rising household debt, elevated consumer delinquencies, and increasing mortgage distress deserves attention, particularly given how weak housing demand has already become.

Again….not “panic” numbers, but not pretty, either. We’re not at the point where widespread mortgage defaults or forced selling are driving the national housing market. However, the latest data suggests the market is weakening, and several indicators are moving in the wrong direction.

According to Redfin’s November 10, 2026 report, the median U.S. home-sale price declined 0.4% year over year in October, reaching approximately $388,634. This marked the first annual decline in more than three years.

Just two months earlier, home prices were still increasing approximately 2.5% annually. A 0.4% decline isn’t particularly large on its own, and median prices can be affected by the mix of homes being sold, but the change in direction is worth noting.

The bigger concern is transaction activity.

Redfin reported that pending home sales declined 15.1% year over year and 3.6% from September. Pending sales reached their lowest level since 2013, excluding April 2020 during the initial pandemic shutdowns. Because pending sales represent homes under contract, they provide an indication of future completed transactions. Sustained weakness suggests that buyers are having difficulty absorbing available inventory at current prices and financing costs.

The National Association of Realtors reported similarly weak conditions in its November 12 release. Existing-home sales declined 5.5% month over month and 8.8% year over year in October, falling to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.75 million homes.

That was the lowest level since August 2010. The comparison doesn’t mean today’s market has the same underlying problems as the post-financial-crisis housing market, but it does demonstrate how severely transaction activity has slowed.

Inventory is also increasing relative to demand. The National Association of Realtors reported 1.59 million existing homes available for sale in October, an increase of 4.6% from the previous year. Months of supply rose to 5.1, compared with 4.4 a year earlier. Redfin separately reported that active inventory reached its highest level since early 2020. These measures aren’t identical, but both point toward a market in which homes are taking longer to sell and available supply is increasing relative to the number of buyers.

One particularly notable detail is that inventory has been rising even as new listings have softened. That suggests some of the increase is coming from homes remaining on the market longer rather than a sudden surge of homeowners deciding to sell. If economic conditions weaken and more households need to list their properties, that could add supply to a market already struggling with demand.

Sellers are also making more concessions. Redfin reported that approximately 61% of homes sold in October closed below their original asking prices, while 36% of sold homes had experienced at least one price reduction. Nearly 15% of pending transactions fell out of contract. Selling below an asking price doesn’t necessarily indicate a decline in a property’s underlying value, but the frequency of reductions and canceled contracts provides additional evidence that buyers have gained negotiating power.

People aren’t getting “desperate to sell”…it’s just a “record buyer’s market”, right?

Regional data shows that some markets are already experiencing considerably larger price declines than the national average. Redfin reported year-over-year median sale-price decreases of 6.5% in Austin, 5.1% in Seattle, and 4.9% in Nashville. Pending sales also fell sharply in several large metropolitan areas, including Seattle, San Diego, and Denver. These differences matter because a national correction doesn’t have to occur uniformly. Markets with weaker employment, greater inventory growth, or particularly stretched affordability can experience substantially larger declines than the country as a whole.

Mortgage rates remain another major obstacle. According to the National Association of Realtors’ October report, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was approximately 7.33%, compared with 6.25% a year earlier. On a $400,000 mortgage amortized over 30 years, that difference raises the monthly principal and interest payment from approximately $2,463 to $2,750. That’s roughly $287 more per month, excluding property taxes, insurance, and maintenance.

Higher borrowing costs reduce purchasing power and limit the number of qualified buyers. At the same time, homeowners with mortgages originated or refinanced at much lower rates have little incentive to move.

That lock-in effect has restricted supply and helped support prices, but it also contributes to low transaction volumes. If homeowners eventually need to sell because of unemployment, debt, relocation, or other financial pressures, those properties would enter a market where affordability remains difficult.

The mortgage delinquency data is worth examining because it helps distinguish a weak housing market from a potentially more serious correction. According to Intercontinental Exchange’s September 2026 mortgage report, the national mortgage delinquency rate was 3.66%. Serious delinquencies were approximately 1.04%, close to their 2017–2019 September average.

These figures remain relatively contained and don’t suggest a nationwide mortgage crisis. However, the direction of several distress indicators is less encouraging. Serious delinquencies increased approximately 21% year over year, while active foreclosure inventory rose 37%, reaching its highest level since early 2019. Completed foreclosure sales also increased 15%. Mortgages originated in 2022 or later accounted for 43% of foreclosure starts and 49% of completed foreclosure sales during September.

Those increases are coming from relatively low levels, which is an important qualification. Distressed transactions still represented only about 2% of existing-home sales in October, according to the National Association of Realtors. Nevertheless, the foreclosure figures suggest that financial pressure is increasing among a portion of mortgage borrowers, particularly some who purchased or refinanced more recently.

The key question for 2027 and 2028 is whether these conditions stabilize or deteriorate further. Major housing forecasters have generally projected modest national price growth rather than a crash. Fannie Mae’s third-quarter 2026 expert survey anticipated home-price increases of approximately 2.2% in 2027 and 2.7% in 2028. Goldman Sachs has also projected very limited price appreciation in 2027, with growth below 1%. These forecasts suggest a market that remains relatively stagnant, rather than one experiencing a broad collapse.

I think the downside risks to those forecasts are increasing. Housing demand is already weak, inventory is building, and mortgage distress is moving higher. A further deterioration in employment would make that combination more concerning.

Homeowners who can comfortably afford their mortgage payments have little reason to sell into a weak market, but job losses and prolonged income disruption can change that decision. More forced selling would increase inventory at precisely the time buyers are already constrained by affordability.

This is where my concerns about AI and other speculative markets become relevant. Weakness in those markets doesn’t establish that a housing correction is coming, and there isn’t sufficient evidence to conclude that this weekend’s crypto volatility is directly affecting housing.

However, a broader decline in asset values, combined with layoffs, tighter lending standards, and weaker consumer confidence, could eventually affect housing demand and household finances. Technology-heavy housing markets may be particularly sensitive to changes in employment and compensation.

There are still important reasons not to expect a repeat of 2008. Mortgage underwriting standards have generally been stronger, many homeowners have substantial equity, and a large share of existing borrowers have fixed-rate mortgages with relatively low payments. The current delinquency rate is also far below the levels associated with the worst period of the financial crisis. Those factors provide meaningful protection against widespread forced selling.

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But a housing correction doesn’t require another 2008. Prices can decline because buyers can no longer afford prevailing valuations, sellers become more willing to negotiate, and available inventory exceeds demand at current prices. A national decline of 5% to 10% over the next couple of years is increasingly plausible in my view, particularly if sales remain depressed and inventory continues growing.

A 10% to 15% decline would likely require more significant economic deterioration, while a nationwide decline exceeding 20% would probably require a much larger employment or credit shock.

What makes the latest data concerning to me is the combination of weakening indicators rather than any single statistic. National median prices have turned slightly negative in Redfin’s data, pending sales are down double digits, existing-home transactions have fallen to levels last seen in 2010, inventory is increasing, and sellers are reducing prices more frequently. Meanwhile, serious delinquencies and foreclosure activity are rising even though overall mortgage distress remains relatively low.

I’ve warned about AI, and I continue to expect more difficult developments there. I’ve warned about crypto, and this weekend’s price action hasn’t changed my outlook. Housing is now another area where I believe the risks deserve closer attention. We haven’t reached the stage of widespread mortgage defaults or a national wave of forced selling, but several of the conditions that can precede a correction are already present.

The next phase will depend heavily on employment, household credit conditions, mortgage rates, and whether inventory continues to outpace buyer demand. If those indicators worsen together, a more substantial housing correction becomes increasingly likely. The data doesn’t yet establish that a nationwide crash is coming, but it does suggest that the housing market is more vulnerable than it was a year ago.

Now read:

• The Hidden Tech Trade In Yesterday’s FAA Chaos
• Will Nvidia Pull Guidance And Restate Earnings?
• Keep One Eye On Tech...But The Other On Crypto
• I Still Think There's More Bad News Coming
• The Seduction Of Market Bounces On The Way Down

QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here.

Iran fired drones at Bahrain early Sunday, its second attack in three days on the Gulf kingdom that hosts the US Navy's Fifth Fleet, after a lull that had held since September, as months of diplomacy to end the war have produced no breakthrough.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said six drones targeted "the US air defence radar system at the Al-Riffa helicopter base in Bahrain," calling the strike the second phase of its response to hostile US actions. "Any aggression by the American enemy will be met with an even harsher and more forceful response," the Guards said in a statement carried by Iranian state television, according to AFP. The IRGC released footage of the launches:

IRGC releases footage of launches toward Riffa Air Base in Bahrain

IRNA: 'A radar at a U.S. air defense site at the Riffa helicopter base in Bahrain was targeted by six drones' pic.twitter.com/MmH38uaPJa

— RT (@RT_com) November 15, 2026

The general command of the Bahrain Defence Force said "Iran continues its systematic hostile approach through its sinful attacks targeting the Kingdom of Bahrain" (translated), and that its air defenses intercepted the drones before they reached their targets. There were no immediate reports of injuries or damage.

???? ??????? ?????? ???? ???? ??????? ?? ????? ????? ????? ??????? ??????? ??? ?????????? ?????? ???? ?????? ????? ???????.https://t.co/XJbdf7MMVp pic.twitter.com/HbU0hzAZNs

— ??? ???? ??????? (@BDF_Bahrain) November 15, 2026

Explosions were heard over the island around 4 a.m. local time, with residents reporting a second series of blasts around 6:30 a.m., AFP reported. The Interior Ministry put out two nationwide alerts, Bahrain's first since September, telling citizens and residents to "remain calm, proceed to the nearest safe location":

An alert of potential threat. The Ministry of Interior urged citizens and residents to remain calm, proceed to the nearest safe location, and follow news through official channels for the protection of public safety.#Bahrain #MOI

— ????? ???????? - Ministry of Interior (@moi_bahrain) November 15, 2026

Bahrain's Foreign Ministry said the kingdom "rejects turning its territory into an arena for settling scores and holds Iran fully responsible" for the attacks on Friday and Sunday and their consequences, RFE/RL reported.

On Friday, the Guards claimed they had destroyed a US early-warning radar in Bahrain in retaliation for American strikes on a telecommunications tower in Sirik, in southern Iran, as we reported. Central Command disputed that, saying both drones the IRGC launched toward Bahrain were shot down by US forces, with "no injuries or damage":

?? CLAIM: Today, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it attacked a "U.S. early-warning radar" in Bahrain.

? FACT: The IRGC launched two one-way attack drones toward Bahrain and both were shot down by U.S. forces. There were no injuries or damage. pic.twitter.com/mGvAJJGM6x

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) November 13, 2026

After the US and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28, Tehran fired thousands of missiles and drones at the Gulf states that host American forces, Bahrain among the most heavily hit. Those attacks had largely died down until Friday.

The Guards also had a warning for shipping on Sunday: "The Strait of Hormuz is closed." The IRGC Navy separately claimed two oil tankers had struck naval mines south of the strait, a claim maritime authorities had not verified, The National reported. It is the latest in a run of mine claims: the Guards said three more tankers were hit in the strait on Nov. 10, and Iran said a day later that it had struck Oman's Didamar Island, whose lighthouse and radar guide tankers through Hormuz's southern lane.

Saudi Arabia condemned the attacks on Bahrain as a violation of international law. Its own air defenses intercepted two ballistic missiles that Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis fired at Riyadh, along with drones over the Eastern Province. On Friday, Gulf states demanded that Iran pay full compensation for every attack since February.

In Washington, Trump has held off on new strikes but is keeping the naval blockade of Iran's ports in place, and declared on Thursday: "We don't need a deal with Iran", as we noted. He is set to raise the war with Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin at their three-way summit in Shenzhen on Thursday.

Tehran has been widening the map: Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, warned this week that if American aircraft use bases in Europe to attack Iran, "we may even target some US military bases in European countries."

Authored by Chase Smith via The Epoch Times,

Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said on Nov. 12 that Senate Democrats will ban stock trading for members of Congress and White House officials once they take the majority in January.

Responding to a post from President Donald Trump, Schumer wrote on X, "Senate Democrats will ban stock trading for all Members of Congress and White House officials, and hold you and your administration accountable for all the ways your rampant corruption has made life more expensive for families."

Trump had written on Truth Social that Schumer "just stated that he wants to end corruption in the United States." Trump said he assumed Schumer meant Democratic-run states, naming California, Minnesota, Illinois, Maine, and New York, where he said "Billions of Dollars are being stolen on an hourly basis."

"Hopefully his words will ring true! It will be an honor to work with him on this very big Democrat problem," Trump wrote.

Schumer replied that he was referring to the president's own stock trades, which he said were more than those of all members of Congress combined at nearly 30,000. He also cited what he called Trump's cryptocurrency "scam," a "Qatari-gifted luxury jet," a "billionaire-funded ballroom," and "pardons for big donors."

House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), who is expected to become speaker in January, has also made a stock trading ban part of the new majority's plans.

"In cleaning up the mess here in Congress, one of the most decisive things that we can do is to ban members of the House and Senate from trading stock. It is our intention to do just that," Jeffries said at a press conference on Nov. 9.

On Nov. 12, Jeffries said again that Democrats need to "get big money out of politics and end Citizens United," and "that should begin by prohibiting members of Congress from trading stock."

He also mentioned ending the war in Iran, reversing Medicaid cuts, and extending the Affordable Care Act tax credits.

In both remarks, Jeffries named only members of Congress in regard to stock trading. In July, he said House Democrats would only support a ban that also covers the president, the vice president, and the Cabinet.

That question was at the center of the last fight over a ban. On July 22, the House passed the Stop Insider Trading Act from Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Wis.) 232-198, with more than a dozen Democrats voting for it. The bill would have barred members, their spouses, and their dependent children from buying stocks. It would not have required them to sell stocks they already own.

The Senate blocked the bill on Sept. 30 in a 53-47 procedural vote, short of the 60 votes it needed, as Senate Democrats voted against it. The bill also included a requirement that voters show photo identification. Democrats objected that the bill did not cover the president, and Schumer called the voter ID provision a "poison pill."

"If Senate Republicans cared about reining in stock trading, they would advance a bill that prohibits the president from trading stocks," Schumer said on the Senate floor on Sept. 29.

In a floor speech before the vote, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) said the bill's rules "are enforced with real penalties." He said "the American people overwhelmingly support a photo ID requirement," and that Democrats were treating it as a problem.

The White House backed the bill. "President Trump has called for a stock trading ban to be passed without delay," it said in a July 22 statement of administration policy.

White House spokeswoman Lauren Bis said in a statement to The Epoch Times that Trump "has launched an all-out war on fraud across the entire federal government" and that congressional Democrats "have refused to do anything to stop waste, fraud, and abuse in our government."

"The Democrats unanimously voted against the Stop Insider Trading Act, which would have ensured that Members of Congress cannot profit from insider information. They have no credibility on this issue," Bis said.

The Epoch Times reached out to Thune and Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), who will lead House Republicans in the minority, for comment.

Bitcoin plunged to a four-month low overnight as leveraged long positions unwound compounded by weeks of ETF fund outflows, expectations of higher interest rates (and surging real yields), and concerns about tighter crypto regulation following the Democratic sweep of Congress. The deepening bear market also comes amid a broader retreat from risk assets as uncertainty surrounds the AI bubble, with Jensen Huang's departure from Nvidia adding to those concerns last week.

Extreme Fear

CoinMarketCap's Fear and Greed Index registered "extreme fear" early Sunday.

Technicals

Since peaking around $87,162 in late September, Bitcoin has tumbled into a bear market, dropping roughly 28% to around $62,577 by early Sunday morning. It subsequently pared some losses as a potential short-term floor emerged, recovering to about $65,250 as of 9:15 a.m. EST, still down roughly 25% from its peak.

Panic into the weekend. 

"I think this is a technical move, as Bitcoin broke down through its 200-day moving average of about $73,000, which has caused a slew of liquidations and new shorts to develop," said Rich Rosenblum, co-founder of crypto market maker GSR, as quoted by Bloomberg. 

Rosenblum added that a technical floor might be emerging.

Macro

Macro conditions have not helped. Hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation readings (October CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month) shifted market pricing toward a December Fed rate hike, pushing 10-year Treasury yields above 5% and strengthening the dollar. 

Real yields have been surging...

Leaving non-yielding assets like Bitcoin facing higher opportunity costs in this environment, while the broader risk-off tone in technology stocks has spilled over given Bitcoin’s elevated correlation with the Nasdaq.

Liquidation

"Bitcoin's drop below $69,000 was directly triggered by a concentrated liquidation of leveraged long positions," HashKey senior analyst Tim Sun told Decrypt. "Though the deeper issue lies in steadily weakening market demand."

Roughly $1.3-2 billion in crypto positions were wiped out in 24-hour windows, the bulk of them Bitcoin longs, which accelerated the decline in classic liquidation-driven fashion.

Sun pointed to a combination of pressures, including six consecutive days of net outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs, according to CoinGlass data. He also cited shrinking stablecoin supply and MSCI's removal of digital asset treasury firm Strategy from its indexes.

"ETFs, stablecoin liquidity, and corporate treasuries have served as the primary capital pillars supporting this Bitcoin rally," Sun said. "With all three coming under simultaneous pressure, the market is losing the marginal buying power that previously propelled prices higher."

ETF Flows 

Bloomberg data show weakening demand for Bitcoin ETFs, with outflows in late October and early November eroding the robust inflows seen in September.

BlackRock's IBIT is the black line and accounts for the largest swings. It recorded a daily inflow above $600 million in October, followed by consecutive weeks of outflows through mid-November.

Sun added that a meaningful rebound would require "long-term allocation capital" to flow back into Bitcoin ETFs. This may suggest that without this, there could be more trouble ahead, especially with the prospect of another Federal Reserve rate increase next month. 

Well...

Whoops. 

And That's Not All

Additionally, political and industry-specific headwinds have compounded the pressure. 

Democrats’ sweep of both the House and Senate in the November 3 midterms has raised concerns about a less crypto-friendly legislative path in the next Congress, including slower progress on market-structure bills and greater regulatory scrutiny. 

Separately, the fallout from the late-October Binance hack - the largest crypto theft on record at roughly $6.3 billion, attributed to North Korea-linked actors - has continued to weigh on confidence, especially among institutional participants wary of custody and counterparty risk.

Meanwhile, Richard Galvin, executive chairman of crypto investment firm DACM, told Bloomberg that Anthropic's IPO next Thursday may be drawing capital away from digital assets.

Taken together, the drop reflects a classic confluence: tighter financial conditions, evaporating institutional inflows, leveraged positioning being forcibly unwound, and a shift in the political and industry narrative after a strong prior run. Bitcoin remains highly sensitive to these overlapping drivers.

A stabilization in ETF flows, softer rate expectations, or clearer regulatory signals could ease the pressure, but near-term rallies have so far proven fragile.