CMR is the leading provider of funding and management support for small to medium-sized businesses and entrepreneurs 

The Hormuz chokepoint standoff between Tehran and the US military has become the center of the nearly two-month conflict. This standoff marks the next phase following an extended ceasefire with Iran after a second round of peace talks was canceled in Pakistan earlier this week.

On Wednesday, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said President Donald Trump is allowing Iran more time to respond to US demands, but expects Tehran to present a "unified proposal."

"So, again, the president's offering them a little bit of flexibility because we want to see a unified proposal to the president's very strong proposal. And he's made his red lines very clear," Leavitt said.

Iran has stated that it will not resume negotiations with US officials while a US naval blockade on its ports remains in place, and the US military said it intercepted two Iranian oil supertankers that tried to evade the blockade.

pic.twitter.com/N0H79ZG5rq

— Department of War ???? (@DeptofWar) April 23, 2026

This comes after Iranian forces seized two ships on Wednesday.

MOMENT masked Iran special forces STORM bridge of Epaminondas

1 of ships that 'endangered maritime safety by operating without necessary permits and tampering with navigation systems' https://t.co/nlLhdY4i9M pic.twitter.com/JssF4aYK5Q

— RT (@RT_com) April 22, 2026

In response to Trump's ceasefire extension, Iran's state TV cited the foreign ministry as saying it is monitoring developments and that the armed forces are ready for any threat.

With Hormuz effectively shut this week, roughly a fifth of global oil and LNG flows remain highly disrupted as the energy shock ripples from the Middle East to Asia, Africa, Europe, and finally the West Coast of the US.

A new Department of War assessment cited by The Washington Post said it would take US forces six months to clear the maritime chokepoint of mines deployed by Iranian naval forces.

Other overnight news includes Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell announcing that Secretary John C. Phelan will be stepping down.

"On behalf of the Secretary of War and Deputy Secretary of War, we are grateful to Secretary Phelan for his service to the Department and the United States Navy," Parnell said in a statement. "We wish him well in his future endeavors."

Latest overnight headlines (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Ceasefire Extension

• US President Donald Trump extended a ceasefire with Iran indefinitely on Tuesday evening with no deadline for its expiry

• Iran has said it will not resume negotiations while a US naval blockade on its port remains in place

• Vice President JD Vance had been prepared to fly to Islamabad for peace talks, but Tehran says it has no plans to take part in negotiations imminently

Hormuz

• Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz ground to a halt on Thursday after Iran fired on commercial ships and seized at least two vessels

• Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps seized the MSC Francesca and another ship identified as 'Epaminondes' on Wednesday

• Iran has collected its first revenue from tolls imposed on the Strait of Hormuz, according to an Iranian lawmaker

Blockade

• The US military intercepted two Iranian oil supertankers Hedy and Hero II that tried to evade its blockade earlier this week

• At least two fully laden Iranian tankers sailed past a US blockade this week, ferrying roughly 9 million barrels of oil to market

• Iranian gunboats fired on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday while two of its own oil supertankers tested the US blockade

Market Impacts

• Energy prices are rising again due to the impasse and worsening tension over the Strait of Hormuz

• Emirates is operating at 65% of capacity with about 13% of airports in its network still cut off

• Honeywell's outlook assumes the conflict will last through the second quarter and decrease revenue by about $100 million to $150 million

• Sweden may need to restrict energy use if supplies from the Middle East remain disrupted, with the government examining potential limits on fuel use

Chart of the Day (via UBS)

Commentary on energy markets from UBS analyst Catherine Gordon:

The UBS oil & gas team continues to argue the scale of disruption is underpriced in both oil and equities: the UBS base case had de-escalation in early April and gradual resumption of flows over 2Q26, keeping Brent at $100/bbl in 2Q26 and in the low to mid-$80s in 2H26, but this path requires actual improvements in flows very soon, rather than only a ceasefire.

Absent progress toward normalizing energy flows via the Strait of Hormuz within the next week or two, UBS warns the market risks a significant spike in oil and LNG prices, with longer disruption into May breaching recent highs of ~$120/bbl for front month and ~$150/bbl for Dated Brent.

Energy-dedicated investors continue to focus on barrels versus rhetoric: each day of stalemate implies a forfeiture of roughly 12–15mb/d of production. The market is now moving into an energy “air pocket,” which should drive a convergence between dated and forward oil prices, or between divergent price expectations in the physical and paper energy markets.

From a trading perspective, broader equities have remained resilient on “de-escalation” headlines, but the setup still feels very fragile, with technicals having done much of the work (CTAs slowing), positioning has caught up, and index-level valuations are pricing in relatively little disruption.

Brent crude futures are trading at $103 a barrel. 

*This is the running blog of the US-Iran conflict for Thursday.  

Continuing our coverage of consumer behavior shifts at petrol stations and convenience stores, the U.S. national average for 87-octane gasoline has remained above the politically sensitive $4-a-gallon level for three weeks. Goldman analysts have released a new note indicating that a majority of convenience stores are seeing drivers buying less fuel and trading down in-store.

Bonnie Herzog, managing director and senior consumer analyst at Goldman, penned a note titled Q1 "Beverage Bytes," which covers a survey of 32,000 retail locations, or about 21% of convenience stores nationwide.

"Despite the improved outlook, it appears that some consumers are already changing their behavior as gas prices remain elevated (at ~$4/gallon). Our retailers are seeing consumers purchasing less fuel, downtrading within the store, and declining basket sizes," Herzog wrote in the note.

More than half of respondents (53%) said they are already seeing changed consumer behavior with gas prices around $4 a gallon, while another 37% expect behavior to shift if prices remain elevated. Only 11% said they have not noticed any change.

The most common pattern shifts in these convenience stores were consumers buying less fuel, trading down at the pump, trading down in-store, and buying fewer in-store items. A smaller share also said customers are simply driving less because of higher gas prices.

Last week, Herzog's team published a survey of 44,000 retail locations across the U.S. (about 28% of all tobacco outlets) that showed $4-a-gallon fuel had already sparked trading down among nicotine users: "Downtrading was strong in Q1, as roughly 80% of respondents indicated that deep-discount cigarettes gained share."

To sum up, the fuel price shock highlights just how sensitive consumers remain in an ongoing K-shaped economy, with working-poor households bearing the brunt of the financial pain.

Professional subscribers can read the "Beverage Bytes" note on our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

European auto sales posted their strongest monthly gain in almost two years in March, as robust demand emerged for fully electric and hybrid models. The surge in demand follows the US-Iran conflict, which disrupted energy flows through the Hormuz chokepoint. As a result, petrol and diesel prices at the pump in Europe soared. Another issue is China flooding the continent with cheap EVs, undercutting already struggling domestic automakers.

Bloomberg cited new-vehicle registration data for last month showing an 11% rise to 1.58 million, as demand for EVs and hybrids continued to strengthen. EV deliveries jumped 42%, with growth across all major markets, including a 66% increase in German EV sales, driven by subsidies and more affordable models.

March's surge in demand offers relief for struggling European automakers facing a number of issues, including excess capacity, U.S. tariffs, and weak demand in the Chinese market.

Related:

• Chinese EVs Flood Europe, Signals Hollowing Out Of Bloc's Industrial Core

The problem with Europe is that Brussels had the grand idea of allowing Chinese brands such as BYD and Geely to flood the continent with cheap EVs, undercutting rivals such as VW, Porsche, and Mercedes.

Data for the month also showed that BYD more than doubled its European sales in March to 37,580 vehicles and is preparing to start production at its new plant in Hungary later this quarter. This means China's market share in Europe is increasingly growing.

Tesla also participated in last month's surge, with March registrations up 84% to 52,600, leaving it just ahead of BYD year-to-date.

While it is quite obvious that the surge in Brent crude prices into triple-digit territory in March influenced consumer behavior, driving EV purchases because of the fuel shock that unfolded at petrol stations, we take a look at a UBS note showing that, over the past four decades, oil price shocks have typically remained elevated for five months following prior military events.

All of this suggests that, with elevated prices in Europe and elsewhere, EVs will regain consumer favor. Yet in the U.S., with federal subsidies eliminated, demand remains muted.

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

Voting rights groups filed a lawsuit on April 21 seeking to block the Department of Justice (DOJ) from collecting, compiling, and analyzing state voter registration lists.

As of April 1, the DOJ has sued 30 states, including Washington, for failing to turn over voter rolls. The department has said the U.S. attorney general has congressional authority under the Civil Rights Act of 1960 to seek election records from states to check for improper voter registrations.

The groups filed a complaint on April 21, accusing the DOJ of seeking to use the sensitive data to build what they described as a “sprawling new voter surveillance and purging apparatus” without congressional authorization.

The complaint alleges that the department attempted to usurp states’ authority to oversee election administration and impose its own “secretive ’verification procedures’” to identify ineligible voters.

“Never before has a federal agency centralized this volume of Americans’ voting data in a single system of records,” it stated.

“And in doing so, DOJ has flouted statutory safeguards designed to ensure transparency and public participation in the federal government’s collection of Americans’ personal information.”

The lawsuit was filed in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia by advocacy group Common Cause and four individual members of Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington.

The data requested by the DOJ includes voters’ Social Security numbers, driver’s license numbers, dates of birth, home addresses, political party affiliations, and voter participation history, according to the filing.

The groups are seeking a court order requiring the DOJ to delete any voter rolls it has obtained from states and to bar the department from compiling or disclosing voter data.

Harmeet K. Dhillon, assistant attorney general of the DOJ’s Civil Rights Division, said on April 1 that the department has a duty to ensure state compliance with election laws.

Assistant Attorney General for Civil Rights Harmeet Dhillon speaks during a news conference at the Justice Department in Washington on Sept. 29, 2025. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

“The Justice Department will continue to fulfill its oversight role dutifully, neutrally, and transparently wherever Americans vote in federal elections,” Dhillon said in a statement

“Many state election officials, however, are choosing to fight us in court rather than show their work. We will continue to verify that all States are carrying out critical election integrity legal duties.”

Dhillon added that the Civil Rights Act allows the attorney general to “demand the production, inspection, and analysis of statewide voter registration lists that can be cross-checked effectively.”

In an April 21 statement, Common Cause CEO Virginia Kase Solomon said the DOJ’s efforts to collect voter rolls amount to “a blatant, partisan power grab.”

“By attempting to interrogate and exploit voter data for political purposes, President Trump’s DOJ isn’t just threatening the privacy of every American—they are building a system designed to imprison the ballot box and silence millions of eligible voters,” Solomon said.

The Epoch Times has reached out to the DOJ for comment, but did not receive a response by publication time.

After several weeks of the main oil artery into Europe being halted - perhaps as Ukraine awaited the outcome of the Hungary election and the greenlighting of Europe's €90 billion loan to Kiev - Zelenskyy stated the Druzhba oil pipeline will be ready to ship Russian oil again. There is just one problem: Russia said it would halt halt Kazakh crude-oil shipments to Germany through the major Druzhba pipeline next month after reporting "technical issues." 

The move would deal a major blow to the PCK Schwedt refinery which supplies most of the fuel to Berlin, as well as jet fuel and heating oil for the city and the surrounding area. The cutoff will increase concerns over fuel availability just as war in the Middle East squeezes global energy supplies. It also ?adds to Germany's fuel supply concerns as the Iran war disrupts flows from the ?Gulf.

While Kazakhstan has received no official communication from Moscow, it got an informal notification, Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov said Wednesday. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak confirmed the planned suspension, citing “current technical abilities,” according to Interfax.

Rosneft Deutschland confirmed it received information that flows will halt May 1, and said it’s assessing the potential impact on fuel supplies.

"At ?the same time, existing options will be utilised to ensure security of supply in Germany," it said.

It also said that the lack of supplies from Kazakhstan - which cover ?about 17% of Schwedt's needs - did not "ultimately jeopardise the security of supply of petroleum ?products in Germany."

The ?Federal Network Agency, the country's energy regulator, which acts as trustee of Rosneft Germany's activities, said there might still be regional pricing effects, adding it was closely coordinating with the company.

Kazakhstan's oil exports to Germany via Russia's Druzhba pipeline totalled 2.146 million metric tons, or around 43,000 barrels ?per day, last year, an increase of 44% from 2024, and 730,000 tons in the first quarter of 2026. In the first quarter of this year, Kazakhstan almost doubled crude flows to Germany to 730,000 tons, equivalent to almost 60,000 barrels a day.

“For the month of May, our transit through the Atyrau-Samara link and further on via the Druzhba pipeline toward the Schwedt refinery is zero,” Akkenzhenov said, according to his press service. The Energy minister said Kazakhstan can ship oil via Russia’s Baltic port of Ust-Luga and the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal on Russia’s Black Sea coast, Interfax reported.

The Schwedt refinery, which is part-owned by Shell Plc and Eni SpA, already gets some crude via Poland’s Baltic port of Gdansk, and Polish pipeline operator PERN said Wednesday it’s ready to supply more if needed.

The halt of flows via Druzhba “does not ultimately jeopardize the security of supply for petroleum products in Germany, even if the PCK Schwedt refinery were to operate at reduced capacity,” Germany’s Economy Ministry said in a statement.

Supplies to Germany have been carried over a northern section of the pipeline, separate from the southern one that supplies Hungary ?and Slovakia and is about to resume operation after repairs following a Russian drone strike in January. Its southern branch, which serves Hungary and Slovakia, was shut earlier this year following damage from a Russian attack on a key pumping station. Druzhba is one of the longest oil pipeline networks ever built.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said this week that repairs have now been completed, allowing the resumption of Russian flows along that section and paving the way for a much-needed €90 billion European Union loan so Ukrainian oligarchs can continue purchasing $500 million apartments in Monte Carlo.

The giant Druzhba pipeline was built in Soviet times to connect Russia’s oil network with refineries in central Europe. Germany cut ties with Moscow following 2022’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, but Hungary and Slovakia are still reliant on Russian barrels to feed their plants.

In 2023, PCK Raffinerie reached an agreement to receive Kazakh oil via the Druzhba link for the Schwedt facility, replacing the Russian volumes. The refinery is still majority-owned by a local unit of Russia’s Rosneft PJSC, which is under the temporary trusteeship of the German government.

The Department of Energy's (DOE’s) Nuclear Fuel Defense Production Act (DPA) Consortium will be meeting on Thursday morning to “provide updates to the public on the progress of the Consortium and provide commentary on approved Plans of Action”.

Trump: "The US is going heavy into nuclear. I wasn't a fan of nuclear, but the safety progress they've made with nuclear is unbelievable. We are very much into the world of nuclear energy"

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 21, 2026

We've been covering the Nuclear Fuel Consortium's meetings since their initial get together in October. The consortium has met multiple times since then behind closed doors and has offered little insight as to what progress is being made to address the underlying issue of a lack of a domestic nuclear fuel chain in the United States, a lack which the following comprehensive chart shows in all its shocking glory.

The consortium is looking to address the shortages across the nuclear fuel supply chain from mining through milling, conversion, enrichment, deconversion, fabrication, recycling, and reprocessing. Parallel progress has been made in various forms over the past few months. 

The DOE launched the Fuel Line Pilot Program to kickstart the fabrication stage and recently put out an RFA for the recycling and reprocessing steps. As we've covered at length, the enrichment stage of the fuel chain has been addressed with almost $3 billion in awards from the DOE and over $4 billion from the Ex-Im Bank. 

If you can count the outstanding award program that's already been announced for the deconversion stage, the DOE has yet to address the mining, milling, and conversion stages.

We've documented this at length as well, as the US imports about 99% of the raw uranium ore for its commercial nuclear power fleet. Milling capacity is also at a minimum in the country, and conversion is just as limited with only one facility in operation in the States.

Today the DOJ Antitrust Division helped deliver on the critical need to expand energy infrastructure to help America win the AI race.

The Division has approved a framework to encourage industry and government collaboration to strengthen our nuclear fuel supply chain pursuant to…

— Antitrust Division (@JusticeATR) December 16, 2025

For reference, as we similarly provided in our coverage of the Department of Justice clearing the companies involved in the consortium of potential antitrust violations, here are the companies to keep an eye on Thursday:

• Uranium mining - UEC, EU, URG, and UUUU
• Uranium milling - UUUU, AEC, and UEC
• Uranium conversion - SOLS, SILXY, and UEC
• Uranium enrichment - LEU, NNE, SILXY, ASPI, and BWXT
• Fuel fabrication - CCJ, GEV, BWXT, OKLO, and ATI
• Recycling and reprocessing - OKLO, FLR, AMTM, and BWXT

Turkey's government as well as some members of the European Parliament on Wednesday criticized recent remarks by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen suggesting Europe should not fall under the influence of Russia, Turkey, or China - calling the comments misleading and divisive.

Von der Leyen on Monday had casually grouped NATO member Turkey with China and Russia as malign influences on the continent, which contradicts the fact that the EU has relied on Turkey to play a key diplomatic role in the Ukraine war, as well as to absorb war refugees from the Middle East.

She had in the remarks declared that the EU "must succeed in completing the European continent so that it is not influenced by Russia, Turkey or China."

She then urged Europe to "think bigger and more geopolitically" when it comes to the continent getting away from cheap Russian energy and low-cast Chinese labor. She argued for greater European independence, also amid tensions with the Trump administration.

Lawmakers from the Left Group in the European Parliament, including Belgian members Rudi Kennes and Marc Botenga, took Turkey's side and slammed the remarks as "both inaccurate and very strange," emphasizing that Turkey is a NATO ally and maintains multifaceted relations with the European Union.

"Turkey is still officially a candidate country for EU membership," the officials noted. "These kinds of statements serve to split the world into 'us' and 'others,' as if there were some kind of purity test, and as if there were an intention to control the rest of the continent," Botenga said.

Botenga further warned that framing international relations as "friends versus enemies" poses significant risks for global stability. One source also underscored why Brussels was quick to try and do damage control in an EU presser:

This rapid clarification underscores Brussels’ awareness of the sensitivity. Turkey remains a vital partner on multiple fronts: migration management, Black Sea security, energy transit, and regional stability. Yet the episode reveals an underlying unease in EU circles about Turkey’s independent foreign policy, especially at a time when some voices within Ankara are openly exploring alternatives to traditional Western alignments.

There was indeed some fast backtracking on the word choice and rhetoric...

The EU attempts to backtrack from Von der Leyen’s statement which has described Turkish influence as adversarial on par with China and Russia pic.twitter.com/q54ID5cIkA

— Ragip Soylu (@ragipsoylu) April 21, 2026

Still, the elephant in the room is that Turkey is very much an geopolitical Eurasian outlier - on the hand possessing the second largest army in NATO, and on the other often doing things contrary to NATO and EU interests, such as cozying up to Moscow on certain key issues.