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Wed, 18 Mar 2026 14:55:00 +0000 No One (?)
No One (?)
By Michael Every of Rabobank
One of the central beliefs of neoclassical economics is that we are all One. One world market; One global central bank; One base interest rate; with temporary aberrations and
Read more.....
No One (?)
By Michael Every of Rabobank
One of the central beliefs of neoclassical economics is that we are all One. One world market; One global central bank; One base interest rate; with temporary aberrations and interventions, One price. Except, as has been evident for some time, that doesn’t work very well, so increasingly we aren’t One. And that division is perhaps even spreading to something we all rely on: energy .
This Daily has flagged the huge dislocation between the price of oil on a screen and on the ‘street’, now around $50 on some measures. As some point out, there’s also a matching dislocation between the price of it in the West vs in parts of Asia. Allow me to remind readers the central thesis of my 2026 ‘Who has the cards?’ outlook was that this year would see deliberate intervention in upstream commodity supply chains so the instigator would get low prices for them and the other bloc would pay much more. That may now only be being seen in relative terms, but this still matches the dislocations in downstream products on the back of tariffs and broader economic statecraft. It’s hugely significant – and it does not say, “because markets” we are One.
The same lack of unity was also on display in the latest news from the Iran War. Israel killed two Iranian leaders, Larijani and Soleimani, which its intel thinks could seriously undermine regime stability going forwards: don’t only look at headlines saying the former was a ‘moderate’ who could be negotiated with. Arab states are egging the US on to continue its strikes to cripple Tehran so it can never attack anyone again. Europe, with Russia and China, is calling for an immediate ceasefire.
Trump said the US is “not ready to leave Iran yet,” but will in “very near future”, as the US aircraft carrier Ford, whose stay in the region was just extended to May, is to go to port in Crete after a recent fire. However, another report has it that a US operation in the Strait of Hormuz could extend the war with Iran by two months. On that kind of timetable, the economic impact would be vastly larger than anything felt so far.
Meanwhile, after Trump’s appeal for allies to help reopen Hormuz, and no one stepping up, the president was reportedly livid, launching public invective that the US can’t rely on its allies when needed and will proceed with them, also suggesting there’s little point to NATO. Ominously, the same was implied by the more moderate (in terms of US alliances) Senator Graham. Once this war is over, win or lose, there are likely to be serious geopolitical and geoeconomic consequences and realignments - indeed, that looks the deliberate target .
With so much at stake, a haggling process continues. The French foreign minister just stated that Norway and Iceland might join the EU, and half-jokingly, that so could Canada. More transactionally, Finland has suggested the EU could perhaps help Trump now if he backs Ukraine . The UK and France might send ships to Hormuz to police a ceasefire once the war is over, as the Wall Street Journal underlines everything is One in that Russia is sharing satellite imagery and drone tech with Iran (as the latter helps Russia). The Journal also notes Ukraine is emerging as a net security exporter in drone and anti-drone tech, elevating it in global power rankings, as Europe declines. Trump’s meeting with Japan’s PM Takaichi this week will also be dominated by Iran: were she to follow his lead, it would mark a decisive geopolitical break, especially if Europe shows it’s unable (physically) or unwilling (in terms of domestic politics) to follow a US lead when even a pacifist Japan can.
In the background, the US geopolitical flip of Cuba from the anti-American to at least neutral continues apace : the White House is apparently demanding the Cuban president steps down so another Castro, literally, whom they can do business with can return to office. Just to underline the differences in approaches here, Europe, along with some past US admins, has aimed for near normal economic relations with the isolated island. Russia is offering it unspecified support.
In geoeconomics: the first European airline has cancelled flights due to soaring jet fuel prices ; Australia’s PM Albanese just stated, “It’s a different world now,” and is reportedly set to announce measures to “shield Australians from the worst of global uncertainty” - which are(?); Britain is warned it faces a “years-long energy shock even if war ends soon”; the EU–US trade pact faces vote this week after months of delay; Sweden became the first member of the EU to sign the US Pax Silica Declaration; and Malaysia the first country to declare its US trade deal 'null and void' after the recent Supreme Court tariff ruling.
Time for a musical interlude, with apologies to U2:
“Is it getting better? Or do you feel the same? Will it make it easier on you now? You got someone to blame.
One!
Have you come here for forgiveness? Have you come to raise the dead?
You say price is a temple, price a higher law; Price is a temple, price the higher law.
Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 10:55 Close Wed, 18 Mar 2026 14:45:00 +0000 U.S. Waives Jones Act After Iran Gas Field Attack
U.S. Waives Jones Act After Iran Gas Field Attack
U.S. Waives Jones Act After Iran Gas Field Attack
Shortly after Israeli fighter jets struck Iran's upstream oil and natural gas production assets for the first time in Operation Epic Fury, sending WTI futures to $98.5/bbl, the Trump administration appears to have pulled another emergency lever from JPMorgan's six-option playbook we recently outline d: a 60-day Jones Act waiver that allows foreign-flagged ships to transport oil, gas, refined products, fertilizer, and related energy cargoes between US ports to boost domestic energy flows and ensure shipping capacity does not become a bottleneck.
Bloomberg reports that President Trump this morning authorized foreign-flagged tankers to transport crude and refined products, including gasoline and diesel, between US ports in a bid to move more Gulf Coast crude supplies to East Coast refineries, stabilize fuel availability, and keep shipping costs low.
"President Trump's decision to issue a 60-day Jones Act waiver is just another step to mitigate the short-term disruptions to the oil market as the U.S. military continues meeting the objectives of Operation Epic Fury," White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement, quoted by Bloomberg.
Leavitt said, "The Administration remains committed to continuing to strengthen our critical supply chains."
The US government can temporarily waive the Jones Act, but it cannot permanently lift it without Congress. The law requires that goods transported between US ports be carried on ships that are US-built, US-flagged, and US-crewed. However, under the Merchant Marine Act of 1920, the administration can grant temporary waivers if it determines they are necessary for national defense or in response to emergencies, typically through coordination between the US Department of Homeland Security and the US Department of War.
Such waivers have been issued several times, for example, after major hurricanes , to allow foreign tankers to move fuel between US ports. Combining a release from the SPR with a temporary waiver of the Jones Act would make the policy more effective. Without a waiver, limited US-flagged tanker capacity could constrain how quickly SPR barrels reach key refining centers or deficit regions.
The US last issued a Jones Act waiver in October 2022 for a tanker bound for Puerto Rico to deliver supplies following Hurricane Fiona. The Biden administration temporarily eased the law in 2021 for refiner Valero Energy Corp. following a cyberattack on a major East Coast fuel pipeline.
Bloomberg's Javier Blas wrote on X, "The Jones Act should be rescinded for good."
He added, "But waiving it now for 60 days would have little impact in the global oil market. The move speaks more about panic than well-thought-out policy. Similar to the US gov providing war insurance to tankers, it doesn't solve the problem."
Waiving the century-old maritime law is one of the six options JPMorgan's head of commodity research, Natasha Kaneva , laid out to clients last week that the Trump administration could employ to combat triple-digit WTI crude prices. The first item on the list, the "historic " emergency release of SPR barrels, has likely already begun.
As we've noted, the SPR release is unlikely to materially cap oil prices unless safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz is restored. Israel's strike on Iran's South Pars field (the world's largest) marks a clear escalation, crossing into upstream energy infrastructure and deepening the risk to physical supply. With Iranian state media now calling for an "all-out economic war," the South Pars attack may accelerate JPM's six-option price-containment playbook , which may only suggest the Trump administration is following.
Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 10:45 Close Wed, 18 Mar 2026 14:40:05 +0000 US Crude Stockpile Hits Highest Since June 2024, Exports Surge
US Crude Stockpile Hits Highest Since June 2024, Exports Surge
Oil prices are ripping higher this morning (rebounding aggressively of overnight lows) after US and Israel attacked upstream Iranian energy assets for t
Read more.....
US Crude Stockpile Hits Highest Since June 2024, Exports Surge
Oil prices are ripping higher this morning (rebounding aggressively of overnight lows) after US and Israel attacked upstream Iranian energy assets for the first time since the war (While the US struck oil export hub Kharg Island late last week, it limited that attack to military targets began).
Iran’s IRGC responded by publishing a list of Gulf energy sites in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar that “have become direct and legitimate targets” following the attack on South Pars, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported.
“New attacks bring the attention back to the physical supply reality of the war - curtailments in energy tighten every day,” said Rabobank’s energy strategist Florence Schmit.
Trump has waived The Jones Act in the hopes of easing domestic prices.
Of course, geopolitical chaos is driving the price of oil more than domestic supply and demand. Nevertheless, overnight saw API report crude stocks rising while refined product inventories declined.
API
Crude +6.56mm
Cushing
Gasoline -4.56mm
Distillates -1.39mm
DOE
The official data confirmed API's reporting overnight with a big crude build and big refined product draws.
Source: Bloomberg
This is the 4th weekly build in US crude, pushing the total stockpile had surged to its highest since June 2024 headed into the war.
Source: Bloomberg
There was no draw or addition to the SPR last week, according to the official data (the fourth week of no change).
Exports for oil and fuels remain the key factors to watch to see if the US is backstopping global markets that have seen millions of barrels of supply curtailed by the conflict in Iran. On the fuels side, distillates and jet fuel will be the most important ones to keep an eye on given how prices for those two products have rocketed.
US crude production remains just off record highs.
WTI was trading just above $98 ahead of the official data (up dramatically from the $91 handle at the lows overnight) and held those gains after...
Finally, what really matters to the average American is the price of gas , which is rising at a record pace and looks set to keep rising...
...and even if we see some 'end' to all this Mideast chaos soon, the ramifications are set in motion and Memorial Day is not that far off
Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 10:40 Close Wed, 18 Mar 2026 14:25:00 +0000 Did Trump Doom The SAVE America Act?
Did Trump Doom The SAVE America Act?
Recent polling makes one thing abundantly clear: the American people are firmly behind election integrity, and the SAVE America Act is right in line with where voters already are. Read more.....
Did Trump Doom The SAVE America Act?
Recent polling makes one thing abundantly clear: the American people are firmly behind election integrity, and the SAVE America Act is right in line with where voters already are.
According to the latest Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll, support for the legislation clocks in at 71%, with strong backing from independents and even a sizable chunk of Democrats. That shouldn’t surprise anyone when you look at the specifics. Voter ID alone commands 81% support, with majorities across the political spectrum. Eight in ten Americans want states to clean non-citizens off voter rolls, and 75% support requiring proof of citizenship to vote. The poll also found that 85% of Americans agree that only U.S. citizens should be able to vote in U.S. elections, with overwhelming majorities of independents and Democrats.
A majority backs sharing voter rolls with the Department of Homeland Security, and 60% describe the SAVE America Act as a commonsense way to prevent fraud and secure elections.
Meanwhile, 58% of Americans acknowledge that voter fraud exists to some degree—something the political class has spent years trying to downplay.
There is nothing controversial about the law, but President Donald Trump may have doomed the bill when he moved to include stricter provisions for mail-in voting, such as eliminating no-excuse absentee ballots.
Trump laid out his demands in a Truth Social post earlier this month, and Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.) will offer those changes as an amendment.
Despite the overwhelming popularity of the law and its provisions, that shift collided head-on with Republicans who represent states where voting by mail is not just accepted, but embedded in the electoral system.
Senate Republican sources began signaling that the votes were no longer there.
What had been a messaging win started to look like a procedural failure.
“I think it’s problematic because in some of these states, 60 or 70 percent of people vote by mail,” a Republican senator told The Hill.
“You don’t want to disenfranchise them. Some states have really encouraged it over the years.”
Some of the concerns are legitimate.
In large, rural states, distances are not abstract talking points. They are measured in hours. Limiting absentee voting to narrow categories, such as illness or military service, would force many voters to travel significant distances to cast a ballot.
That includes a substantial number of Republican voters. That is why states like Montana and Utah have embraced absentee or all-mail systems. Utah, in particular, is a GOP stronghold built that has universal mail voting. The model works there. It has worked for years.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune faced a narrow path from the start. Advancing the bill required peeling off between seven and ten Democrats, a tall order even before the internal Republican divisions surfaced. After the changes, the math is close to impossible.
Then factor in that Republican officials in swing states have spent months encouraging vote-by-mail participation ahead of the midterms. Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania all factor into that strategy. Pulling back now introduces both logistical and political risk.
The core of the SAVE America Act is the citizenship requirement and Voter ID, both of which enjoy broad support.
Those provisions could have anchored a focused, disciplined bill and a unified GOP.
Trump’s push to overhaul absentee voting appears to have fractured the coalition. If that’s a sticking point for Trump, the SAVE America Act may be DOA.
Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 10:25 Close Wed, 18 Mar 2026 14:10:00 +0000 Russia Evacuates Hundreds Of Its Specialists From Iran's Nuclear Bushehr Complex After Missile Strike
Russia Evacuates Hundreds Of Its Specialists From Iran's Nuclear Bushehr Complex After Missile Strike
Russia has lodged formal protest with Israel following its reported strikes near Iran's Bushehr nuclear facility,
Read more.....
Russia Evacuates Hundreds Of Its Specialists From Iran's Nuclear Bushehr Complex After Missile Strike
Russia has lodged formal protest with Israel following its reported strikes near Iran's Bushehr nuclear facility, angrily warning that the attacks directly endangered Russian personnel on the ground.
Israeli and Russian media have confirmed that Moscow issued a sharp condemnation and warnings of a red line after Israeli forces reportedly hit the grounds of the nuclear power plant where Russian specialists are stationed.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) had also earlier provided independent verification that a missile struck the Bushehr complex on Tuesday evening, although no damage to the plant or injuries to staff were reported.
The Kremlin made clear to Israel that Russian nationals working in and around the facility were put at risk . Russian state media described the communication delivered to Israel via the Russian embassy "official demands" - which indicates a formal escalation in diplomatic pressure.
Even more provocative is that reports indicate Israeli strikes may have directly targeted residential quarters housing a Russian nuclear expert.
According to TASS : "Rosatom Director General Alexey Likhachev specified that the strike had hit the area near the office of the facility’s meteorological service, in close proximity to an operating power unit, at 3:11 p.m. GMT on March 17." It was the first such known strike on an Iranian nuclear plant since Trump's Operation Epic Fury began.
The Rosatom chief has indicated that several rounds of personnel evaluation from the Bushehr NPP are underway . There were many hundreds of Russian scientists, personnel, and technicians at the site. He indicated about 480 Russian nationals remain at the site .
"Attacks on nuclear facilities blatantly violate the key rules and principles of international security," Likhachev emphasized.
Meanwhile, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi has also urged "maximum restraint" during the conflict in order to prevent the risk of a nuclear accident. Just like war in Ukraine has threatened nuclear power sites, so has the Iran conflict raised concerns over nuclear fallout and radiation - in the instance of a strike leading to major accident.
Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 10:10 Close Wed, 18 Mar 2026 14:05:00 +0000 US Core Manufacturing Orders Up For 3rd Straight Month In January
US Core Manufacturing Orders Up For 3rd Straight Month In January
After tumbling to end 2025, US Factory Orders were expected to rise very modestly in January and did so - up 0.1% MoM (as expected) with December's 0.7% decline revis
Read more.....
US Core Manufacturing Orders Up For 3rd Straight Month In January
After tumbling to end 2025, US Factory Orders were expected to rise very modestly in January and did so - up 0.1% MoM (as expected) with December's 0.7% decline revised up to a 0.4% decline...
Source: Bloomberg
Core Factory orders (es Transports) rose 0.4% MoM - slightly better than expected - and December's 0.4% MoM shift was revised up to a 0.6% MoM rise. This led core manufacturing orders to rise 1.39% YoY - the highest since July...
Source: Bloomberg
All the final data for Durable Goods orders were the same as the prliminary prints - unchanged MoM at the headline level.
Finally, today's data also showed the value of core capital goods orders, a proxy for investment in equipment that excludes aircraft and military hardware, slipped lower by 0.1% MoM. Not a great sign for GDP (and with inflation on the rise, the s-word - stagflation - is starting to appear).
Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 10:05 Close Wed, 18 Mar 2026 13:45:00 +0000 US Strikes Iran Energy Assets, Tehran Vows Retaliation; Iran Intel Chief Killed, Trump Muses On 'Finishing Off Terror State'
US Strikes Iran Energy Assets, Tehran Vows Retaliation; Iran Intel Chief Killed, Trump Muses On 'Finishing Off Terror State'
US Strikes Iran Energy Assets, Tehran Vows Retaliation; Iran Intel Chief Killed, Trump Muses On 'Finishing Off Terror State'
Summary
Israel says Iran's intelligence chief Esmail Khatib was eliminated overnight as pace of top leadership killings accelerates .
Iran says upstream oil and gas assets are under attack for first time since war began, readies retaliatory action against oil/gas assets in Gulf area, including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, & UAE
Iraq reroutes some flows through Ceyhan Pipeline to Turkey
Iran reiterates new rules in place for Hormuz transit as traffic remains de-minimus, sparking reports that "the blockade is now the worst disruption to oil flows ever... "
Iran FM says no change in nuclear posture : vows Tehran not pursuing an atomic bomb.
President Trump issues posts musing whether US should 'finish off' Iran , though Tehran signals continuity & stability of govt.
Iran is planning a counterattack on the Gulf area's upstream energy assets
Iran to Iraq gas flows halted following South Pars gas field attack
Trump Waives Jones Act to "mitigate the short-term disruptions to the oil market "
* * *
Trump Waives Jones Act, Iran Halts Gas Flows To Iraq
Reuters reports that after US and Israeli fighter jets attacked Iran's South Pars gas field - the largest in the world - gas flows to Iraq were halted.
Gas flows from Iran account for 40% of Iraq's supply. An Iraqi official told the outlet that the gas flows had been diverted for domestic use.
Israel's escalation of the conflict - now targeting Iran's upstream energy assets - sent Brent crude futures above the $109/bbl level, as WTI prices inched closer to triple-digit territory.
The surge in energy prices this morning was met with the Trump administration waiving the century-old Jones Act - a maritime law that will now allow foreign ships to transport energy products between US ports - to ensure there are no logistical bottlenecks and that shipping costs stay low amid the worst energy shock the world has ever seen.
* * *
Iran Plans Counterattack on Gulf Area Energy Infrastructure
Brent crude futures jumped from around $103.5/bbl to $108/bbl following Israeli airstrikes on Iran's South Pars gas field in the Persian Gulf. This escalation in strikes underscores what Bloomberg commodities analyst Javier Blas said: "Both sides are now targeting upstream (i.e., production) oil and natural gas assets."
He asked, "Is this an attempt to escalate to de-escalate? Or is it simply a sign that escalation is spiraling out of control?"
Moments ago:
The semi-official Fars news agency reports that Iran's energy infrastructure "will not go unanswered, and Iran's response will target enemy infrastructure previously thought to be safe."
"These centers have become direct and legitimate targets and will be targeted in the coming hours ," Iran's semi-official Tasnim news agency reports.
Qatar: Ras Laffan refinery phase 1 and 2, Mesaieed Petrochemical Complex
Saudi Arabia: Samref refinery, Jubail petrochemical complex
UAE: Al Hosn gas field
Translation: Major escalation inbound for Gulf states, with crosshairs likely on upstream energy infrastructure.
"With enemy missiles hitting the Asaluyeh refinery, the pendulum of war has effectively swung from limited battles toward an 'all-out economic war'," Fars stated, adding, "As of tonight, the red lines have shifted. If the enemy believed these attacks could increase pressure on Iran to force it to back down, they have made a fatal miscalculation, for this action has placed the trump card of reciprocal retaliation squarely in Iran's hands."
Qatar Foreign Ministry spokesperson Majed Al Ansari called Israel’s targeting of South Pars a "dangerous and irresponsible step."
"Iran has calibrated its strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure to signal capability without triggering extended outages. That restraint has been deliberate. The question now is whether Tehran shifts from signaling to targeting critical components that could take months, if not years, to repair ," stated Fernando Ferreira, the Director of the Geopolitical Risk Service at Rapidan Energy.
* * *
Iranian Oil, Gas Assets Under Attack
Crude oil futures are surging after Iranian state TV reported that part of the South Pars gas field in the Persian Gulf area had been hit by an airstrike.
Bloomberg reports that Israel appears to be behind the air strike on Iran's energy assets.
South Pars is the backbone of Iran's gas system and part of the world’s largest natural gas field, which Iran shares with Qatar, where the same reservoir is called the North Field.
Oil and petrochemical facilities in nearby Asaluyeh also came under attack, it added.
An attack, if confirmed, would mark the first time Iran’s upstream oil and gas facilities have been targeted in this war.
According to the Iranian oil ministry’s official news service, Shana, daily gas production at South Pars, which is shared with Qatar, reached a record 730 million cubic meters in 2025.
Iranian state TV says that South Pars phases 3, 4, 5, and 6 were hit by Israeli air strikes . This suggests damage to core upstream gas infrastructure at the backbone of Iran’s energy system, marking a major escalation in Gulf energy risk
Most of Iran’s gas production comes from South Pars , making it central to power generation, industrial feedstock, petrochemical production, and winter heating demand.
Bloomberg noted that the gas field is the "key source of pipeline gas to Turkey via the Tabriz–Ankara line . Disruptions to those flows could force Ankara to seek more spot LNG on already tight global markets."
WTI futures quickly surged to $95/bbl on the news.
Operation Epic Fury appears to have shifted toward targeting the IRGC’s funding lines. This was evident last week with strikes on the Kharg Island export hub.
* * *
Iraq Reroutes Oil From Hormuz, through Ceyhan Pipeline to Turkey
Brent crude futures roller-coastered, oscillating between $100 and $103 per barrel after news broke that Iraq had found an initial (though still limited) workaround for the Hormuz chokepoint by restarting exports through Turkey's Ceyhan port.
Bloomberg reports that North Oil Co.'s oil pipeline to Ceyhan port, with an expected initial export capacity of 250,000 barrels, has begun operation. That is in addition to 210,000 barrels per day from Kurdistan through the northern pipeline, according to Oil Minister Hayyan Abdul Ghani.
Ceyhan exports crude from the Kurdistan and Kirkuk fields (Iraq) to the Mediterranean port, effectively bypassing the chaos at the Hormuz chokepoint and in the Gulf region.
Disruption of tanker flows in the critical waterway forced Iraqi oil production to plunge to about 1.4 million barrels per day, roughly one-third of pre-Hormuz closure levels.
Three weeks into the US-Iran conflict, tanker activity on the waterway has slowed to a crawl, at just about 400,000 barrels per day, compared to the pre-Hormuz closure average of 14 million barrels per day.
Kpler oil analyst Muyu Xu warned, "The blockade is now the worst disruption to oil flows ever. Real barrels are now disappearing from global oil markets, which can lead to demand destruction in the weeks to come."
Iraq is following Saudi Arabia's playbook of shipping crude through pipelines rather than through Hormuz as IRGC drone and missile threats persist. Saudi Aramco shifted its crude flows through the East-West pipeline to export terminals at Yanbu and Al Muajjiz on the kingdom's Red Sea coast.
* * *
Iran Remains In Control Of The Strait
Meanwhile, Iran-linked vessels accounted for 35% of the 20 crude tankers that made outbound Hormuz transits in the first week of the conflict, according to Kpler. About a week later, that number rose to five of the eight tankers that left the region, suggesting that Iran's control of the critical waterway has significantly increased.
On Tuesday, the conflict escalated further with the confirmation of the killing of Ali Larijani , secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council.
According to Aaron Stein, president of the Foreign Policy Research Institute, "The Larijani killing is a big deal, and may make Iran more desperate to disrupt oil flows."
"Trump is obviously being pressured to escort tankers, so we're in for the possibility of very tense US operations in ways I'm certain the Navy would like to avoid," Stein said.
On Wednesday, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Al Jazeera about new rules that should be imposed on the critical waterway.
"We need to design new arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz and the way ships pass through it in the future after the war so that peaceful navigation through this waterway can be permanently maintained under clear regulations with consideration for Iran's interests and the interests of the region," Araghchi said.
He said, "It should guarantee that safe passage through the strait takes place under specific conditions," adding that conditions should "ensure peacefulness. We do not want to witness another war in the region and we do not want to see the strait closed again."
* * *
Hormuz Traffic Remains Practically 'Halted'
Goldman analysts, led by Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby, showed clients on Tuesday that shipping traffic through Hormuz remains down 98% from normal levels (4-day moving average).
The estimated total hit to oil flows from the Persian Gulf stands at 15 mb/d, 15 times larger than the peak April 2022 hit to Russian oil production.
Iranian crude exports dominate the Strait.
"With no end in sight to hostilities, shut-ins rising on a daily basis, and the Strait technically closed, we remain of the view that Brent is set to remain in a new, higher $95-to-$110 range," Westpac Banking analyst Robert Rennie wrote in a note.
"Were we to see a major refinery plant hit or confirmation of additional mining of the strait, we would expect that range to extend higher by another $10-$20," Rennie added.
The takeaway here is that Gulf countries, such as Iraq and Saudi Arabia, are rerouting crude flows from tanker transit through the waterway to pipelines out of the hostile region, as Iran remains largely in control of the Strait, necessarily (and dramatically) reducing global energy supply (for longer).
...and now he is reportedly dead (among many other Iranian leaders).
* * *
Iran Intel Chief Killed In 3rd High-Level Hit
More decimation of Iranian top leadership, as Israel's defense minister Israel Katz has announced Iran's intelligence chief Esmail Khatib was eliminated in an overnight strike , which marks yet another alleged high-level hit as the tempo of targeted killings accelerates. "On this day, significant surprises are expected across all arenas that will escalate the war we are conducting against Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon," Katz warned in a military briefing, according to Israeli media.
If confirmed, the reported hit would mark the third top-tier Iranian figure eliminated in just 48 hours , following Israeli strikes that reportedly killed national security chief Ali Larijani, who was likely effectively running the war, and Basij commander Gholamreza Soleimani.
Iran's intelligence chief Esmail Khatib Trump Posts: Finish Them
President Donald Trump posts Wednesday: I wonder what would happen if we “finished off” what’s left of the Iranian Terror State, and let the Countries that use it, we don’t, be responsible for the so called “Straight?” That would get some of our non-responsive “Allies” in gear, and fast!
Trump also said in a rapid follow-up that "We are rapidly putting them out of business!"
Still, Iran is signaling continuity, not collapse, even as newspapers in America run celebratory headlines such as "Israel Is Hunting Down Iranian Regime Members in Their Hideouts, One by One." Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi pushed back on the narrative of systemic breakdown, insisting the Islamic Republic "does not rely on a single individual."
Meanwhile, unconfirmed chatter suggests parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf may have narrowly survived an assassination attempt in northern Tehran . There are indicators that he too may be running the day-to-day of the government and of the wartime response; however, it's also clear the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is firmly in control of the country.
Israel Gives Military Freedom Of Elimination Strikes
As a reminder of analysis we featured earlier in the conflict, "Endurance regimes do not need clean victory to change the game. They only need to survive the shock while making the old equilibrium too costly for their adversaries to restore ." Journalist Jeremy Scahill, who starting over two decades ago covered the lead-up to the Iraq war from on the ground in Baghdad, has reiterated that "In asymmetric warfare, the less powerful side does not need to militarily defeat an adversary , but rather force it to a point where it determines the costs of continuing the war is too high ."
The US-Israeli operation is seeking to so utterly smash the country and its leadership , and potentially bring people out to the streets to topple the government , so as to avid reaching this dilemma. Israel is said to be working with spies and spotters on the ground, which Basij forces have sought to expose and arrest.
But just as Iran is clearly trying to adapt, by reportedly allowing autonomy of command among military units in the instance of being cut off from top leadership, so is Israeli too adapting its strategy and tactics . Katz has confirmed that he and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have granted the military standing authorization to eliminate additional senior Iranian officials, with no case-by-case approval required . Or in other words, the Israeli decapitation efforts are now on autopilot, signaling greater escalation.
Tehran Signals No Change in Nuclear Posture
Tehran, for its part, is surprisingly signaling that it has no intention of developing a nuclear weapon. It's hard to evaluate any such official stance in the middle of a war for survival, but FM Araghchi on Wednesday reiterated that Iran's nuclear posture "won’t significantly change" - even as military leaders warn of a "decisive and regrettable" response to Israeli strikes.
Nuclear sites have come under direct threat during the war, with Tuesday a projectile reportedly having near Iran’s Bushehr nuclear facility , though local officials say no damage occurred.
In Washington, there's some clear doubling down militarily on the part of the Trump administration, while the question of finding an offramp is still likely being hotly debated within White House and national security circles. On the political front, the closer the US gets to Memorial Day travel with gas prices climbing higher, the more politically costly it is likely to be for Republicans .
Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 09:45 Close Wed, 18 Mar 2026 13:45:00 +0000 What Has The Iran War Done To Trump's Approval Rating?
What Has The Iran War Done To Trump's Approval Rating?
What Has The Iran War Done To Trump's Approval Rating?
Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,
Mainstream coverage of the ongoing Iran conflict has framed it as a potential turning point for the Trump administration, with endless speculation about political damage and shifting voter sentiment.
However, new data presented on CNN tells a far different story. The network’s own senior data analyst Harry Enten delivered a breakdown showing the war has produced virtually no movement in the president’s standing and scant public engagement overall.
Enten stated plainly: “What we are seeing right now is a president whose approval rating is steady.”
He added: “This has NOT been a big deal politically.”
The numbers back it up. “Americans who say they care a lot about the Iranian situation — look at this — it’s just 45%. Just 45% of Americans say they care a lot about the situation going on in Iran,” Enten noted.
He continued: “So despite all the hubbub, right now we’re talking about less than a majority of Americans who say they care a lot about what’s going on in Iran right now.”
“But take a look at Google searches right now because it just sort of reinforces that point,” adding “Americans’ Google searches for Iran. Look at this down 84% versus February 28th when of course the current war started in Iran.”
He noted the comparison to pop culture: “And if you look back on Sunday, you look back yesterday searches for the Academy Awards significantly higher are talking about three, four times as high as searches for Iran in the United States of America.”
Enten concluded the segment by saying: “I’m just not thinking that this is necessarily going to be the big political mover and shaker that you might expect.”
“The president’s overall approval rating is the same. It’s the same. It was 41% before the current war in Iran started, and it is 41% now,”
“So despite again, all the hubbub, despite all the critics of the president of the United States, what we are seeing right now is a president whose approval rating is steady. And this has not been a big deal politically,” Enten concluded.
This assessment lands against the backdrop of earlier polling that painted the conflict in starkly different terms. A recent Reuters/Ipsos survey found overall support for strikes at just 27 percent, with only 7 percent backing among Democrats and 19 percent among independents. The survey suggested disapproval has climbed to 55 percent in some measures, driven partly by concerns over oil prices and civilian impacts.
Yet Enten’s data suggests that low baseline support has not translated into the kind of sustained political pressure many outlets anticipated. The president’s approval remains unchanged, and broad public interest appears limited.
Media framing has leaned heavily into expectations of fallout, particularly among Democratic critics hoping to erode Trump’s position. Enten’s numbers show no such shift has materialized.
Interest metrics tell their own story. With searches for the Academy Awards dwarfing those for the Iran situation, everyday Americans appear more focused on domestic matters and entertainment than on the foreign conflict dominating cable news cycles.
This disconnect highlights a recurring pattern: elite media narratives often assume foreign policy crises will dominate voter priorities, only to confront data showing otherwise. In this case, the conflict has failed to move the needle on presidential approval or generate majority concern.
The findings arrive as the operation continues without clear signs of broader domestic disruption to Trump’s standing. Public focus remains diffuse, with the war registering as one issue among many rather than the dominant force some predicted.
Americans continue to prioritize their immediate concerns over sustained engagement with developments abroad. The data underscores that media hype has not aligned with actual voter sentiment or search behavior.
This episode serves as another reminder that public attention is finite and often turns elsewhere, regardless of how loudly the narrative machine insists otherwise.
Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch . Follow us on X @ModernityNews .
Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 09:45 Close Wed, 18 Mar 2026 13:25:00 +0000 Appeals Court Refuses Trump's Request To Reconsider CNN Defamation Suit
Appeals Court Refuses Trump's Request To Reconsider CNN Defamation Suit
President Donald Trump’s defamation lawsuit against CNN appears to be dead for the time being, as an appeals court denied his motion to rehear the case.
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Appeals Court Refuses Trump's Request To Reconsider CNN Defamation Suit
President Donald Trump’s defamation lawsuit against CNN appears to be dead for the time being, as an appeals court denied his motion to rehear the case.
A three-judge panel had held in November that Trump hadn’t done enough to show that CNN compared him to Adolph Hitler when it described his claims about the 2020 election as “the Big Lie.” In a brief unsigned order on March 17 , the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit said that none of its judges asked for a vote to reconsider the case.
Trump told the circuit that the three-judge panel erred.
He wanted the full panel to consider whether his case should be decided by a jury instead of the court, and to reconsider whether the statements made by the network’s journalists allowed him to sue.
The order also ruled out the possibility of a rehearing by the original three-judge panel.
As Stacy Robinson reports for The Epoch Times , Trump sued CNN in 2022 after the network’s journalists repeatedly referred to his disputation of the 2020 election results as a “Big Lie.”
That terminology has historically been used in reference to Hitler’s Nazi regime, his propagandist Joseph Goebbels, and the push for a genocide of the Jewish people.
“CNN has acknowledged that the term the ‘Big Lie’ is a direct reference to Adolf Hitler and Nazism and uses the term in relation to the Plaintiff to create a false and incendiary association between the Plaintiff and Hitler,” Trump’s complaint alleged.
A district court found that CNN’s language was just “hyperbole,” and not meant literally. They dismissed the case.
In a unanimous decision, the 11th Circuit affirmed that dismissal. “To be clear, CNN has never explicitly claimed that Trump’s ‘actions and statements were designed to be, and actually were, variations of those [that] Hitler used to suppress and destroy populations,’” its decision read.
Trump wanted the full panel to determine if his case warranted a jury trial, and reconsider whether the CNN journalists’ language allowed him to sue.
CNN asked the court to toss out the case, saying the term “Big Lie” is “rhetorical hyperbole and does not refer to Hitler or Nazism.” Trump could not prove the network acted with “actual malice,” by publishing statements it knew were false, CNN argued .
“Actual malice is an extremely high evidentiary burden for any plaintiff to meet, much less the former President of the United States of America, and he has utterly failed to meet that burden here,” CNN’s response brief reads.
In July 2023, Florida District Judge Raag Singhal dismissed Trump’s suit with prejudice, meaning it cannot be brought again.
He ruled that there was “no question” that such statements met the standard for defamation under the law. But, he said, they were statements of opinion, and not fact—even though he found them to be “odious and repugnant.”
“CNN’s use of the phrase ’the Big Lie' in connection with Trump’s election challenges does not give rise to a plausible inference that Trump advocates the persecution and genocide of Jews or any other group of people,” Singhal wrote.
“No reasonable viewer could (or should) plausibly make that reference.”
Trump appealed that ruling, arguing the judge had failed “to consider the totality and context of the defamatory statements,” by “finding that CNN’s statements were pure opinion or rhetorical hyperbole.”
The CNN case is one of several defamation suits Trump has brought against news outlets. Last year, the president sued the Wall Street Journal for publishing a birthday card he allegedly sent to sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. That case is ongoing.
In 2024, Trump obtained a $15 million settlement against ABC and its anchor George Stephanopoulos, who claimed on air that Trump was “found liable for rape.”
Last September, a judge threw out a $15 billion suit against the New York Times and some of its reporters on the grounds that Trump’s legal brief broke court rules: It was unnecessarily lengthy and contained improper language, the judge ruled.
Trump refiled that suit in October.
The president has also teed up a suit against the BBC, after reports it had altered a video of him speaking to supporters at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, to make it appear as if he was promoting violence. The BBC on March 16 asked the court to dismiss the suit.
Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 09:25 Close Wed, 18 Mar 2026 13:05:00 +0000 Data Centers Look To Liquid Cooling As AI Future Heats Up
Data Centers Look To Liquid Cooling As AI Future Heats Up
Data Centers Look To Liquid Cooling As AI Future Heats Up
Authored by Bruce Parker via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
The boom in artificial intelligence (AI) technology and hyperscale facilities has created a growth opportunity for businesses that keep cloud- and AI-related computer servers from overheating.
A worker walks among racks and network switches at the LightEdge Solutions data center in Altoona, Iowa, on Oct. 15, 2019. Joe Raedle/Getty Images Cooling is essential for electronics. Without it, today’s high-performance computer chips would literally melt down.
Navid Kazem is an electronics cooling expert and general chair of Semi-Therm, a leading global conference on thermal solutions for electronic components. He told The Epoch Times that data centers cannot function without proper cooling.
“You can burn down the chip pretty easily if you don’t have an effective cooling solution ,” he said.
“What happens is the temperature of the chip rises to such high levels that you can effectively burn the chip .”
According to Kazem, silicon processors operate reliably at junction temperatures of 194–212 degrees Fahrenheit (90–100 degrees Celsius). If they rise much higher than 248 degrees Fahrenheit (120 degrees Celsius), they burn.
“The question comes down to, how can we cool them and keep them in that temperature range while spending as little energy as possible as we can,” he said. “So, there is a big push toward being able to use warm liquid for liquid cooling to cool this down.”
Switching From Air to Liquid
Data centers currently support rack power requirements of about 20 kilowatts. Since the latest central processing units and graphics processing units have higher thermal density than previous generations, that requirement is projected to exceed 50 kilowatts in the future.
A technician works at an Amazon Web Services artificial intelligence data center in New Carlisle, Ind., on Oct. 2, 2025. Noah Berger for AWS/Reuters But as high-performance AI computing becomes increasingly heat-intensive and energy-intensive, conventional air cooling—the traditional approach to heat management—cannot keep up.
“When you go from air cooling to liquid cooling, you can save between 20 [percent] and 30 percent of the energy for the whole data center,” Kazem said.
“The most important thing is the amount of energy they are required to use. So if you can reduce the energy required for cooling, that means that you can have a more sustainable data center.”
Not only are air-cooling systems less effective at dissipating heat, but they also require more energy—sometimes more electricity than the servers themselves.
And since water is up to 3,000 times more effective at heat transfer than air and uses less electricity, data center operators are exploring ways to switch to liquid.
Liquid Cooling Options
Operators have three liquid-cooling options for managing heat: rear-door heat exchangers, direct-to-chip liquid cooling, and immersion cooling.
The first involves replacing the rear door of the IT equipment rack with a liquid heat exchanger. This option is used in tandem with air cooling.
With direct-to-chip liquid cooling, cold plates are placed on the board’s heat-generating components to draw heat away with single-phase cold plates or two-phase evaporation units. This technology removes up to 75 percent of the heat produced within the racks, while the remaining heat is whisked away by air.
In immersion cooling, servers and other components in the rack are submerged in a thermally conductive dielectric fluid. This system eliminates the need for air cooling and is the most energy-efficient of the three.
Which Is More Common: Air or Liquid?
According to recent market data, most existing data centers are currently air cooled, but liquid cooling is on the rise.
A survey conducted by S&P Global Market Intelligence of data center operators found that 45 percent use a fully air-cooled system, while 42 percent use a hybrid air-and-liquid-cooled system. Just 12 percent use liquid cooling only.
However, when asked about their plans for the next five years, 59 percent of respondents said their organization expects to adopt liquid cooling.
Of the three liquid-cooling options, 45 percent of respondents preferred liquid-to-air direct-to-chip, while 41 percent preferred liquid-to-liquid direct-to-chip.
An additional 41 percent said they would opt for the rear-door heat exchanger and 37 percent said they prefer a fully submerged cooling system.
Market Trends
Overall, the liquid cooling market is projected to grow from $6.6 billion in 2026 to $38.4 billion in 2033, according to a report put out last month by market research firm Market Minds Advisory.
Top players in the space, the report states, include Schneider Electric, Vertiv, Johnson Controls, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Green Revolution Cooling, Submer, LiquidStack, and Asetek Inc.
The trend was evident at last week’s 42nd annual Semi-Therm conference, a four-day symposium held in San Jose, California. The conference featured thermal engineers, researchers, and scientists for all-day sessions and short courses, and it attracted about 400 attendees, including engineers and planners from the hyperscale data center industry.
“Data centers and liquid cooling is one of the hot topics right now,” Laura Dobbs, marketing and exhibits manager for Semi-Therm, told The Epoch Times.
“For example, we have a track on liquid cooling, and we have a track on high-performance computer thermal interface management. ... As data centers have continued to grow, liquid cooling has become a very important piece of that, versus air cooling.”
According to Kazem, design teams from the hyperscalers and data center companies attend Semi-Therm “to learn about the latest technologies.”
“It’s mostly about the energy consumption, and how much of cooling we can do for these data centers that are having very high, high-powered densities,” he said.
“So, that has become a major issue, and the conference this year is reflecting that challenge and opportunities ahead.”
Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 09:05 Close
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