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U.S. auto sales came in stronger than expected in August, offering another sign that consumer demand for new vehicles remains relatively resilient despite elevated borrowing costs and broader questions about the economy.

According to Deutsche Bank’s auto team, led by Edison Yu, August sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of roughly 16.9 million vehicles. That was comfortably ahead of the bank’s 16.4 million estimate and also above the roughly 16.4 million pace recorded a year earlier.

The headline SAAR number was strong, although the underlying monthly figures were somewhat less impressive. Automakers sold approximately 1.388 million vehicles during August, slightly above July’s 1.380 million but below the roughly 1.482 million vehicles sold in August 2025.

Sales among both the Detroit Three and major Japanese automakers were modestly better than Deutsche Bank expected. But Hyundai Group was one of the biggest contributors to the upside surprise, beating the bank’s forecast by approximately 14,000 vehicles. Other brands accounted for the remainder of the beat.

The closely watched large pickup market was more mixed. Daily sales declined for most major truck models, but Ram was a notable exception. Ram sales increased by roughly 105 vehicles per day to around 1,550, with Deutsche Bank attributing much of that strength to aggressive incentive spending.

Higher sales are obviously positive for volumes, but when they are being generated through heavier discounts and incentives, the improvement doesn’t necessarily translate into equally strong profitability for manufacturers.

Inventory remains relatively controlled. Industry-wide inventories slipped to approximately 49 days of supply, compared with 50 days previously, although that remains above the 47-day level seen in 2025. Truck inventories declined by one day to 52 days of supply, while passenger-car inventories dropped by two days to just 34.

Taken together, the August numbers paint a reasonably healthy picture of the U.S. auto market. Sales are running better than expected, inventories aren’t showing signs of a major glut, and the annualized selling rate remains comfortably above 16 million vehicles.

Deutsche Bank isn’t extrapolating August’s 16.9 million pace into a dramatically stronger industry forecast, however. Yu and his team continue to expect a 16.0 million SAAR for full-year 2026, roughly consistent with forecasts from the major automakers themselves. For 2027, Deutsche Bank is forecasting only a modest improvement to 16.1 million.

In other words, August was a good month, but Deutsche Bank isn’t calling it the beginning of an auto boom. The more interesting question from here may be how much manufacturers have to spend on incentives to keep sales around these levels...particularly if consumers remain squeezed by high vehicle prices and financing costs.

The Street's mood toward US retail has been described by UBS analysts as "apathy, caution, and chagrin."

"Investors are engaged, but not necessarily enthusiastic. They remain interested, but increasingly selective. Most importantly, conviction feels harder earned than it has in years," Michael Lasser, a managing director and senior equity-research analyst at UBS, wrote in a note on Thursday.

Goldman Sachs consumer expert Scott Feiler wrote yesterday that "consumer stocks have had a tough run the last few weeks" and pointed to Goldman's prime brokerage data, which show that gross exposure to retail stocks has plunged to a multi-year low, signaling that hedge funds have reduced their exposure this year.

Returning to Lasser, the UBS analyst warned that consumers are facing affordability pressures, elevated interest rates, inflation, labor-market uncertainty, tariffs, freight costs, and geopolitical instability, all of which have pushed investors to view retail through a defensive lens.

The broad consensus is that the US consumer remains resilient, but that conclusion masks deepening income-based bifurcation. Accelerating sales at Dollar General and Dollar Tree, alongside moderating trends at Walmart and Costco, have renewed questions about whether consumers are beginning to trade down.

Credit-card delinquencies, equity-market wealth effects, and fuel prices are emerging as critical indicators for spending through 2027.

Lasser explained:

At times, investing in retail today feels like crossing a river against a steady current. Every step forward is informed by the latest demand signals, market share reads, or channel checks. Daily stock movements frequently reflect changing narratives around risk rather than changes in underlying fundamentals. In some cases, share price action appears to be influencing investment theses as much as investment theses are influencing share price action.

Against that backdrop, confidence has become relative. Selectivity remains exceptionally high. The market is rewarding execution over aspiration, consistency over storytelling, and evidence over possibility. That dynamic is unlikely to change in the near term unless the macroeconomic undertow begins to recede.

Lasser added a lot more color about the current state of the consumer:

The State of the Consumer

The broad consensus remains that the consumer is holding up reasonably well. Yet that conclusion masks an increasingly nuanced debate. Income-based bifurcation has become so widely accepted that it is almost cliché. The more relevant question today is whether this remains an investable theme and how durable it may prove to be.

The recent acceleration at the dollar stores alongside moderation at Walmart and Costco has prompted renewed questions about shifting consumer behavior. Investors continue to monitor credit card delinquencies, wealth effects tied to equity markets, and fuel prices as key variables that could shape spending patterns over the next several quarters.

Sentiment Swings and Market Positioning

Perhaps the most striking characteristic of the current environment is the magnitude of sentiment volatility relative to changes in business fundamentals.

Recent examples include Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Target, and Ulta, where investor opinion periodically swung far beyond what underlying operating results appeared to justify. When evidence emerges that challenges the prevailing narrative, consensus often snaps back just as aggressively in the opposite direction. This creates fertile ground for mispricing opportunities and outsized returns for investors willing to be patient.

More recently, many of these discussions have centered on names such as Dick's Sporting Goods, AutoZone, and Tractor Supply.

Interest Rates and Replacement Cycles

Interest rates continue to serve as one of the sector's most important variables. Home Depot, Lowe's, and Floor & Decor have largely traded as housing and bond-proxy vehicles, while Best Buy, Williams-Sonoma, and Wayfair have increasingly been viewed as beneficiaries of an eventual replacement cycle.

The key debate is whether a declining rate environment would lift all of these businesses equally. Investors increasingly question whether lower rates alone are sufficient or whether company-specific execution and category fundamentals will ultimately prove more important.

Tariff Refunds and the Coming Anniversary Effect

Another emerging area of focus is the growing divide between tariff refund beneficiaries and those largely excluded from those benefits.

Retailers such as Walmart, Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Home Depot, Tractor Supply, and Best Buy are generally viewed as beneficiaries. Meanwhile, Target, Williams-Sonoma, and Five Below are more commonly viewed as those on the other side of that group.

This distinction may become increasingly important as investors begin to focus on the anniversary of these benefits and their second- and third-order implications for margins, pricing strategies, and earnings growth moving into next year.

The Nuanced Debates

Beyond the headline themes, countless smaller discussions continue to shape investor thinking. Topics ranging from nominal pricing and demographic trends to category-specific dynamics are influencing views on which retailers can sustainably grow above GDP and which may struggle to keep pace heading into 2027.

He touched on individual names:

Walmart

Walmart appears to be undergoing a gradual regeneration of its shareholder base. Investors have become more comfortable with underlying comp trends excluding Health & Wellness, although there is some concern that H&W-related headwinds could become more pronounced in 2027.

Discussions around store-level economics, margin expansion opportunities, and the long-term earnings power of the business remain central to the debate. The prevailing view is that the stock may remain range-bound near term as investors wait for proof that the most compelling elements of the investment thesis can translate into tangible financial outcomes.

Costco

Conversation around Costco has been comparatively subdued. The August sales release reignited debate over whether recent performance reflects continued deceleration or the early stages of stabilization.

Bulls remain focused on traffic growth, membership engagement, and the enduring strength of Costco's flywheel. Skeptics question whether the stock can continue to command its premium valuation if the business settles into a slightly lower long-term comp framework.

Target

Investor sentiment toward Target has swung dramatically over the past year. A few quarters of mid-single-digit comparable sales growth have meaningfully altered the narrative. The discussion has shifted from questioning the relevance of the business to debating its long-term earnings potential.

Key debates center around 2027 comp expectations, tougher margin comparisons, and valuation. Consensus expectations that once centered around approximately $10 of earnings power have increasingly migrated toward the possibility of nearly $12 in 2027. Where investors fall along that spectrum largely determines whether they view the stock as attractive or fully valued.

BJ's Wholesale Club

Investors have been more open to this stock as of late. There's been some surprise on the degree to which its shares have pulled back after a reasonably solid print. While the stock remains heavily influenced by the data, bulls have expressed optimism about it seeing improving trends from both its higher income and lower income shoppers. Bears remain skeptical about the sustainability of its recent performance, and are concerned that tough gas compares and more normalized MFI increases could pressure earnings growth in CY'27.

Dollar General

Investors broadly appreciate the improvement in operational execution and the progress management has made over the past year.

Operationally, the largest debate centers on the health of the mature store base. Core mature-store comps hovering around flat levels have become a focal point. Some investors worry that persistently muted comp growth could create longer-term margin pressure given the operating leverage embedded within the model.

There are also questions surrounding the sustainability of the recent gross margin expansion cycle. With much of the benefit from shrink reduction and damage improvements potentially already realized, and LIFO tailwinds likely moderating, investors are increasingly debating how much incremental margin upside remains available.

The contribution opportunity from DG Media continues to generate constructive discussion as well. Meanwhile, the bullish camp argues that the company has successfully re-established itself as a double-digit algorithm business capable of delivering attractive earnings growth over time.

Dollar Tree

Sentiment toward Dollar Tree continues to improve as investors focus on simplification, operational execution, and self-help opportunities.

The traffic inflection has strengthened the bullish narrative and quieted many of the skeptics. While investors still seek additional proof points, there is growing recognition that the direction of travel has improved meaningfully.

The primary debates now center on tariff refund anniversaries and the potential impact of elevated freight costs as the company moves into 2027. Some say that, as a result of these factors, margins remain uncertain moving forward.

 Goldman consumer stocks versus AAA retail gasoline

The takeaway here is that US consumer has imploded. It is that resilient headline data are concealing widening fractures beneath the surface. Accelerating sales at dollar stores, alongside moderating trends at Walmart and Costco, suggest that spending is shifting toward discount retailers. 

Hedge funds appear to have recognized the shift, as the Goldman data suggests gross exposure to retail stocks is at a multi-year low. 

Update (1226ET): After the jury remained deadlocked following 36 hours of deliberations over seven days, Judge William Sullivan declared a mistrial in the Lindsay Clancy murder case - however he's given the defense one hour to seek a stay from the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court.

Judge says he will give Reddington one hour to get a stay from the Supreme Judicial Court.
MISTRIAL ON HOLD in Lindsay Clancy case.

— Brian Entin (@BrianEntin) September 4, 2026

Why would the defense want a stay of a mistrial? Because if they can instead force the holdout juror to be removed, they avoid a brand new trial and Clancy will go free. 

"This is really intense. Reddington asked for emergency Supreme Judicial Court intervention moments before the jury walked back in," reports NewsNation's Brian Entin.

Developing...

* * *

Update (1135ET): A mistrial was declared in the Lindsay Clancy case on Friday, after a holdout juror refused to bend the knee and let her off, Fox News' Bill Melugin reports.

BREAKING: Judge declares mistrial in Lindsay Clancy murder case after hung jury.

— Bill Melugin (@BillMelugin_) September 4, 2026

* * *

Lindsay Clancy's defense team is absolutely melting down after Judge William Sullivan refused to remove a holdout juror in Clancy's triple-murder trial, in which the jury must decide whether Clancy is criminally responsible for strangling her three children, Cora, 5; Dawson, 3; and Callan, 8 months. Her defense claims that she was suffering from hallucinations amid postpartum psychosis. The prosecution claims she was not in psychosis when she sent her husband out of the house on long errands, before she murdered her children and then tried to make it appear as though she attempted suicide. 

On Thursday, the jury foreperson sent a note indicating one juror was refusing to apply the judge’s instructions on reasonable doubt. Judge William Sullivan questioned each juror individually at sidebar, then gave the full panel what defense attorney Kevin Reddington later called a "soft" reminder of the law and sent them back to deliberate.

"They’ve said at this point that they can," Sullivan said. "That was specifically addressed towards the specific question, and that’s what I’m doing."

Reddington demanded that the holdout to be removed, and requested a more pointed inquiry - which Sullivan declined. 

JUST IN: Lindsay Clancy stares at the jury as Judge William Sullivan sends them home for the day.

The moment came shortly after Clancy's attorney, Kevin Reddington, fumed and called on Sullivan to remove one of the jurors. https://t.co/r7g6JPmXyM pic.twitter.com/32z5efMIKP

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) September 3, 2026

According to Clancy's defense team, the holdout juror is a man. 

"Clearly, we have a person who, under their oath, stood in front of you yesterday … under oath looked you in the eye and lied," said Reddington. "That juror told you that he would be able to apply the law to the facts as you asked him."

When court resumed Friday, Reddington hammered Sullivan, arguing that the prior instruction was inadequate, and pressed again for removal or further questioning of the juror (whom he accused of having lied under oath). Sullivan refused additional inquiry, stating he had considered the issue at length and would not remove the juror. Redding responded by calling Sullivan 'soft' - to which Sullivan replied: "What do you want me to do?! Get a brass band? I read the instruction as written by the Massachusetts Supreme Court. The fact I perhaps did not give it my full inflection, I'm sorry about that, I'm not an actor - I'm giving instruction.

?? BREAKING: Lindsay Clancy's defense attorney is MELTING DOWN in court and DIRECTLY SPARRING with the judge, calling the judge "SOFT"

DEFENSE: Stop being soft with jury instructions!

JUDGE: What do you want me to do?! Get a BRASS BAND?! I read the instruction as written by the… pic.twitter.com/dijDZAdqzG

— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) September 4, 2026

No More Sidebars!

Following the spat, Clancy's defense team filed a motion to Sullivan asking that there be no more sidebars for the remainder of the trial - and that all further proceedings be handled in open court. The prosecution, meanwhile, suggested that there be no further questioning of the jury, and asked that Sullivan send them to continue deliberations, arguing that the holdout juror has "no indication of lack of impartiality or bias or extraneous influence, and no indication of inability to deliberate."

Reddington disagreed - arguing that the juror appears to have a personal issue getting in the way of him being able to deliberate fairly, and demanded that he be replaced with an alternate. 

According to Massachusetts law, a judge can only send a jury back for deliberations twice before declaring a mistrial - which looks like where we're headed.

Goldman explained this week that Gulf oil exports had recovered to between 15 million and 16 million barrels per day, roughly two-thirds of prewar levels, with the rise of dark tanker transits obscuring some flows from conventional tracking via the Automatic Identification System (AIS). Yet headline crude volumes don't tell the entire story. As we have repeatedly noted, crude itself does not keep the industrial economy humming. Diesel does.

US RETAIL DIESEL PRICES ADVANCE TO RECORD HIGH, AAA DATA SHOWS https://t.co/LjXZw8fxYR

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 4, 2026

Make no mistake: There is a refined-products crisis because of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and Ukrainian one-way drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. That tightening in physical markets, especially for diesel, was evident on Thursday, when US retail pump prices reached a record high.

US retail diesel prices surged to a record $5.85 per gallon on Thursday, according to new data from AAA, surpassing the previous peak reached in June 2022.

Unlike crude oil, diesel is the fuel that keeps the industrial economy moving: It powers trucks, construction equipment, tractors, generators, and home-heating systems. The spike threatens to unleash another wave of energy-driven inflation just as global supplies tighten ahead of the Northern Hemisphere's harvest and heating seasons.

Bloomberg's NYMEX one-month heating-oil/crude spread, tracked on the Bloomberg Terminal as the HOCL1 Index, breached $100 per barrel early Tuesday before surging to $108 early Wednesday. It was trading at $99 early Friday morning.

President Trump urged US refiners earlier this week to increase production and lower gasoline and diesel prices, but the industry has limited spare capacity. Many facilities are already operating near, or even above, their stated maximum processing rates following a summer production surge.

Despite the recovery in tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz, TotalEnergies SE head Patrick Pouyanne recently said there wasn't a "single tanker of products" moving out of the waterway.

Again, the energy crisis is in the refined-products complex.