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Sun, 05 Apr 2026 16:00:00 +0000 "Unprecedented" Withdrawal Requests Now Hitting Private Credit
"Unprecedented" Withdrawal Requests Now Hitting Private Credit
"Unprecedented" Withdrawal Requests Now Hitting Private Credit
Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance
Late last week it was reported that one private credit company has effectively frozen up under a wave of redemption requests, an abrupt liquidity crunch that will likely do lasting damage to what little credibility it still had with investors.
This is exactly the kind of stress event I’ve been expecting ever since I flagged that psychology in the private credit space was starting to break—and I still believe conditions in private credit will get worse before they get better.
I’ve been flagging the sector as one of ten that I see as an avoid at all costs , and just days ago I wrote that conditions were worse than they appeared on the surface. This latest development only reinforces that view.
According to reporting from Bloomberg , Blue Owl Capital Inc. is now limiting redemptions from two of its flagship private credit funds after facing an unprecedented surge in withdrawal requests in the $1.8 trillion market. Blue Owl shares are down about -40% so far this year.
Investors in the $36 billion Blue Owl Credit Income Corp. asked to redeem 21.9% of shares in the latest quarter (up from 5.2%), while the smaller Blue Owl Technology Income Corp. saw redemption requests spike to a staggering 40.7% (up from 15.4%). This trend is...alarming...
Despite previously meeting withdrawals above their standard limits, the firm is now capping redemptions at 5%, effectively gating investor exits. In practical terms, that means billions in requested withdrawals are not being honored—roughly $3.2 billion remains locked in the larger fund alone.
Recall just days ago I highlighted how things were likely far worse in private credit than they appeared. As I’ve written, investors have already started pulling money , with withdrawals hitting records just as concerns about software exposure and valuation pressure have picked up.
What happens next from here shouldn’t surprise anyone who’s been paying attention. If anything, this is just the beginning. As we move into Q2, expect more massive redemption requests across private credit vehicles as investors digest what gating actually means in practice. Once one fund limits withdrawals, it doesn’t calm nerves, it accelerates the exit impulse elsewhere.
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And to be clear, this is not the bottom, in my opinion. It will get worse before it gets better. The core issue isn’t just fundamentals, it’s psychology. As I’ve been saying, psychology in private credit is already broken. Investors are now realizing that liquidity was never what it seemed, and that realization tends to spread quickly and feed on itself.
That’s why this is not the environment to be stepping in early. Do not try to catch a falling knife here. When structures depend on confidence and that confidence is cracking, price and flows can overshoot to the downside in a way that surprises even seasoned allocators. Personally, I’d avoid all private credit names, BDCs and regional banks and not try and go bottom fishing in this sector.
As I’ve said, at some point, there will likely be a private credit bailout or backstop, whether through policy support, institutional capital, or creative restructuring.
But that doesn’t come early. It comes after things get meaningfully uglier, when the pressure is no longer containable and losses are already visible.
We’re not there yet.
Tracking the private credit meltdown:
March 31, 2026 - WSJ reports that software exposure among private credit funds is larger than disclosed
March 27, 2026 - Cracks in private credit reach UBS Real Estate fund, forced to suspend withdrawals
March 24, 2026 - Ares restricts withdrawals on its Strategic Income Fund after redemption requests hit 11.6%
March 23, 2026 - Apollo caps withdrawals on its $25 billion Apollo Debt Solutions vehicle after redemptions hit 11%
March 19, 2026 - Stone Ridge’s Alternative Lending Risk Premium Fund gates redemptions after overwhelming redemption requests
March 16, 2026 - Apollo co-president says that “all” marks in parts of the private markets industry are “wrong”
March 11, 2026 - Morgan Stanley and Cliffwater cap redemptions in $8 billion, and $33 billion funds, respectively
March 6, 2026 - BlackRock begins limiting withdrawals from its $26 billion HPS Corporate Lending Fund
March 3, 2026 - Blackstone faces “record” redemptions from its flagship private credit vehicle, investors sought to redeem 7.9% of fund’s $82B in assets
February 19, 2026 - Blue Owl restricts redemptions from its retail private credit fund
January 26, 2026 - Blackrock takes 19% markdowns on TCP Capital Corp.
December 17, 2025 - Blue Owl walks away from $10 billion data center deal for Oracle
October 15, 2025 - QTR warns private credit is one of 10 areas of the market that I would avoid heading into 2026
QTR’s Disclaimer : Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here . This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions. All positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.
The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 04/05/2026 - 12:00 Close
Sun, 05 Apr 2026 15:40:00 +0000 DOE FY27 Budget Requests $45 Billion in Nuclear Funding
DOE FY27 Budget Requests $45 Billion in Nuclear Funding
DOE FY27 Budget Requests $45 Billion in Nuclear Funding
The White House fiscal year 2027 budget proposal has requested almost $54 billion for the Department of Energy in fiscal year 2027, with almost 80% of that funding going towards nuclear energy and nuclear deterrent programs . The funding request represents a nearly $5 billion increase from 2026 levels.
Outside of the $32.8 billion in funding requested for the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), the Trump admin cites a $2.7 billion reduction in funding requests achieved by “slashing Green New Scam initiatives and rooting out woke diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) programs ”.
The NNSA receives a $3.6 billion (12%) increase from the prior year. The request supports warhead modernization, infrastructure recapitalization, life-extension programs, next-generation naval reactor technology, and nuclear emergency response teams.
These defense nuclear activities also advance high-assay low-enriched uranium ((HALEU) production with direct benefits for commercial reactor fuel supply chains.
Environmental Management is funded at $8.2 billion, down $386 million from the enacted level. The program addresses legacy radioactive waste and contamination at former Manhattan Project and Cold War weapons sites . Approximately $3 billion targets the Hanford site in Washington state for continued operation of the Direct Feed Low-Activity Waste Facility and other near-term cleanup milestones. The initiatives reduce long-term federal liability and clear land for potential future nuclear or industrial reuse.
The budget makes a specific call out for an additional $3.5 billion to “rapidly deploy firm baseload power ”. No further explanations are given for what exactly is covered under this initiative, but it is assumed to be a combination of nuclear energy and geothermal power-related programs . The DOE and its various offices have issued multiple award programs to kickstart the expansion of two of the current administration's preferred power generation methods.
The $53.9 billion figure captures the entire department request while nuclear security, cleanup, and energy investments form the dominant share . Civilian nuclear energy programs such as advanced reactor demonstrations and fuel-cycle work appear folded into the non-NNSA portion or supported through targeted baseload funding.
The proposal continues the pattern of prioritizing nuclear deterrence and legacy stewardship even as other energy accounts face reductions or proposed cancellations.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 04/05/2026 - 11:40 Close
Sun, 05 Apr 2026 15:05:00 +0000 Eisen Vs Every 'Trumper': There Is Quite A Battle Shaping-Up...
Eisen Vs Every 'Trumper': There Is Quite A Battle Shaping-Up...
Eisen Vs Every 'Trumper': There Is Quite A Battle Shaping-Up...
Authored by James Howard Kunstler,
The Red Line
"The ends must justify the means — the only question is what means are necessary."
- Saul Alinsky
Why do the news anchor ladies of CNN, Erin Burnett, Kate Bolduan, always look so depressed on the air? They never smile. Their faces always register something between grave concern and hysteria. Is it the network’s cratered ratings? The pending hostile takeover by Paramount / Skydance (led by conservative David Ellison)? Too much botox, zombifying the small facial muscles? Or is it self-loathing from being compelled to slant everything they report on in the direction of a lie?
There does seem to be some hidden hand in Narrative Central issuing prescribed story-lines to the networks, and that hand seems to be tinged with malice for anything and anyone seeking to rescue our country from chaos, penury, psychosis, and jihad. It looks like the hidden hand wants the country to go down in flames, and will resort to any means necessary to get it done. The template for that is so-called “color revolution,” which is a hyper-accelerated version of “Red Rudi” Dutschke’s “march through the institutions” to “capture the transmitters of culture” so as to produce a communist utopia, as cribbed from the writings of Antonio Gramsci, (1891 – 1937) founder of the Italian communist party.
The fascist Mussolini tossed Gramsci in jail where he scribbled three thousand pages of his Prison Notebooks , in which he laid out his strategy for destroying civil society, later adapted by the Americans Saul Alinsky (1909-1972) in his Rules for Radicals and Gene Sharp (1928-2018), who penned several concise manuals of strategic mechanics for dismantling targeted governments.
These are the mentors of chief Lawfare ninja Norm Eisen, who has made a specialty of marching through the institution of American law in order to advance the agenda of the Democratic Party allied with cohorts of the permanent Washington bureaucracy (or Deep State) to fend off any challenge to the corruption and racketeering embedded in those two symbionts.
The challenge obviously presents in the form of Donald Trump, the once and current president battling an increasingly rabid set of opponents. Norm Eisen has been deeply involved in every attempt to undermine and disable Mr. Trump since 2016. He wrote briefs for the Mueller Special Counsel operation; he acted as prosecutor in Trump’s impeachment # 1 (prompted by CIA agent and so-called “whistleblower” Eric Ciaramella, as facilitated by then Rep. Adam Schiff); he assisted ex parte in the House Jan 6 Committee proceedings; he prepared legal arguments for the Fani Willis prosecution of Mr. Trump and 18 co-defendants; and he helped construct the legal framework for Special Counsel Jack Smith’s cases against Mr. Trump. In short, Norm Eisen spent the past decade laboring to brand Donald Trump as a criminal and shove him out of the political arena. His efforts failed.
Norm Eisen founded or is associated with several swamp NGOs active in Trump-hunting operations , including Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW), the States United Democracy Center, the Democracy Defenders Fund, Democracy Defenders Action — all posing as anti-autocracy operations. Eisen and his orgs have filed hundreds of lawsuits against the Trump administration to obstruct any initiative the President advances to stop Democratic Party sanctioned grift, deport illegal aliens ushered in during the “Joe Biden” years, and especially to derail investigations of election fraud. These orgs are well-funded by George Soros’s Open Society NGO and its spinoffs, Arabella Advisors (rebranded as Sunflower Services), the Tides Foundation, that is, the usual suspects.
In the face of all that, plus a dysfunctional Congress and a hostile federal judiciary, the President has struggled to find work-arounds for every piece of the agenda he was elected to carry out. What can be done about it? Even if evidence was produced to show that Norm Eisen acted improperly in the cases brought against the President, it is unlikely that a case brought against Norm Eisen would get any traction in a DC district federal court. He is a longstanding friend of James “Jeb” Boasberg, Chief Judge of the DC District. Norm Eisen was in the same 1991 class at Harvard Law School as Barack Obama, an architect of the Left’s movement to destroy the Republic.
All of this suggests that if Mr. Trump needs to accomplish something critical, such as basic reform of our election procedures, and if any of his executive orders are thwarted by Norm Eisen-backed lawsuits for judicial nullification of executive powers, Mr. Trump will have to declare some kind of extraordinary national emergency. That will be the red-line that Norm Eisen has been seeking for ten years : his chance to brand Mr. Trump as a “tyrant” and commence a new impeachment effort, in theory coinciding with the seating of a Democratic Party majority in both houses of Congress.
This is quite a battle shaping up. Norm Eisen has been adroit to a fault in all his nefarious endeavors.
But then, Mr. Trump has performed as a veritable Scarlet Pimpernel of American politics, ruthless, resourceful, self-consciously comical, and genuinely motivated to save the USA from a cabal of prodigious villains.
He is in it to win it. His crowning achievement might be getting the morose ladies of CNN to finally crack a smile.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 04/05/2026 - 11:05 Close
Sun, 05 Apr 2026 14:30:00 +0000 Global Plastics Supply Chains Further Pressured As Abu Dhabi Petrochemicals Plant "Suspended" After Attack
Global Plastics Supply Chains Further Pressured As Abu Dhabi Petrochemicals Plant "Suspended" After Attack
One of the UAE's key petrochemical hubs halted operations early Sunday after falling debris from an air-defense interception
Read more.....
Global Plastics Supply Chains Further Pressured As Abu Dhabi Petrochemicals Plant "Suspended" After Attack
One of the UAE's key petrochemical hubs halted operations early Sunday after falling debris from an air-defense interception sparked multiple fires. The incident adds to a growing list of disruptions across Gulf petrochemical infrastructure, highlighting major risks and potential incoming disruptions to the global supply chain for critical inputs used to make plastics.
Borouge's Abu Dhabi petrochemicals operations at Al Ruwais Industrial City in the Al Dhafra region halted operations after an attack sparked multiple fires across the plant. The plant produces polyethylene and polypropylene, which are building blocks for plastic manufacturing.
Polyethylene is widely used in packaging films, shrink wrap, heavy-duty sacks, liners, caps and closures, and infrastructure applications such as pipes, as well as in some healthcare packaging. Polypropylene is used in rigid packaging, including food and beverage containers, bottle caps, and housewares, as well as in medical products such as masks, gowns, syringes, catheters, inhalers, and pharmaceutical packaging.
Bloomberg first reported the incident at the petrochemicals plant earlier but provided no details on when the facility would restart operations or whether any critical components were damaged.
There were troubling reports last week that key players in the global plastics manufacturing supply chain declared force majeure due to the limited supply of monoethylene glycol and purified terephthalic acid caused by the heavily disrupted Hormuz chokepoint.
Disruptions reported last week, courtesy of Bloomberg:
Oriental Union Chemical Corp. warned US customers it would temporarily suspend MEG shipments for early March. The suspensions would persist until conditions stabilize, the Taipei-based company wrote in a customer letter. After March 11, shipments to customers continued as normal, with monthly pricing adjusted to reflect higher crude costs, spokesperson Daniel Yu said. Ethylene oxide and ethylene glycol sales are mainly for customers on long-term contracts, he added. As disruptions mount across the industry, Taiwan has moved to boost capacity for ethylene output, according to a report by the semi-official Central News Agency.
Hainan Yisheng Petrochemical Co. declared force majeure "for affected contracts/orders/delivery obligations," according to a letter sent to US customers. The Chinese maker of PET and PTA flagged disruptions stemming from the Hormuz shutdown.
Indorama Ventures said in an early-March letter from its US and Canada regional sales team that it would raise prices on PET resin by 10 cents a pound across all businesses, citing higher feedstock costs and supply-chain disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict. The company said in a letter sent the following week that it would add an additional temporary 5-cent war surcharge. The company has also declared force majeure on shipments from two PET units in Europe, S&P Global's Chemweek reported.
Saudi Basic Industries Corp. last week told customers it would invoke force majeure for MEG and diethylene glycol. The duration of the disruptions "cannot be reasonably determined given the evolving nature of the circumstances," the company said, citing "unforeseen supply chain disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz."
Last week, Dow CEO Jim Fitterling warned that Gulf petrochemical flows could take upwards of nine months to normalize if the Hormuz chokepoint were to reopen in the near term.
Let's remind readers that China is the world's largest producer and consumer of plastics, according to OECD data. Any supply disruption would ripple through the industrial base of the world's second-largest economy.
Read the key JPMorgan note on how the energy shockwave travels across the world like falling dominoes (read ).
Tyler Durden
Sun, 04/05/2026 - 10:30 Close
Sun, 05 Apr 2026 14:05:00 +0000 'Open The F**kin' Strait': Trump Threatens To 'Blow Everything Up' If No Iran Deal By Tuesday
'Open The F**kin' Strait': Trump Threatens To 'Blow Everything Up' If No Iran Deal By Tuesday
'Open The F**kin' Strait': Trump Threatens To 'Blow Everything Up' If No Iran Deal By Tuesday
Summary:
Trump offers Iranian negotiators amnesty , threatens to 'blow everything up' if no deal
IEA Head warns Asia (implying Beijing) is panic hoarding fuel
Trump warns Iran 'Open the Fuckin' Strait' or "you'll be living in hell'
Trump Talks With Fox Reporter About US-Iran Negotiations
Shortly after President Trump wrote on Truth Social, "Open the Fuckin' Strait, you crazy bastards, or you'll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah," the president spoke with Fox News reporter Trey Yingst for 15 minutes early Sunday.
Trump provided Yingst with new details on the behind-the-scenes negotiations with the Iranians and what would happen if Iran does not reach a good-faith deal.
Yingst said Trump told him, "If they don't make a deal, and fast, I'm considering blowing everything up and taking over the oil ." The reporter went on to say that the president added that if there is no deal, bridges and power plants will go down all over the country.
Yingst asked the president about the possibility of an agreement with the Iranians. The president said those negotiating on behalf of Tehran have been granted amnesty for now so they can continue the talks.
The reporter noted that Trump thinks a deal can be reached by Monday. Trump said, "I think there's a good chance tomorrow. They're negotiating now. "
International Energy Agency Head Warns Of Panic Hoarding Oil In Asia
International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol told the Financial Times this weekend that governments must avoid panic hoarding and refrain from imposing fuel export bans as the Gulf energy shock ripples outward to Asia, Africa, Europe, and eventually reaches the US West Coast.
"I urge all countries not to impose bans or restrictions on exports ," Fatih Birol emphasized in the interview. "It is the worst time when you look at the global oil markets. Their trade partners, their allies and their neighbors will suffer as a result ."
The FT noted that Birol was "careful not to name China directly," but made very clear his warning was likely aimed at Beijing , which has already moved to restrict exports of critical refined products, including gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.
Birol said that "major countries in Asia who hold major refineries" should reconsider their current bans, adding, "If those countries continue to restrict or totally ban exports, the impact on the Asian markets will be dramatic."
Birol's hoarding warning in Asia comes shortly after the IEA's coordinated release of 400 million barrels from emergency reserves. Such hoarding by major countries would directly undercut efforts to stabilize global energy markets. He also warned that if the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz persists, losses of crude and refined products in April could reach roughly double the levels seen in March.
Early in the US-Iran conflict, energy economist Anas Alhajji joined UBS analysts on a call in which he warned of panic hoarding risks in the oil market. He said that he questioned back in January why the Trump administration was hoarding Venezuela's oil after the Maduro raid, instead of bringing it to market.
Alhajji noted then, "I'm not talking about conspiracy theories. We were criticizing the Trump administration, companies, and trading houses that bought Venezuelan oil, and asking why they weren't able to sell it to end users and why they were hoarding it. Now we know." He was implying that this hoarding was in preparation for Operation Epic Fury.
Asia has been hit hardest so far. JPMorgan's top commodities expert warned about the falling dominoes of how the energy shock transmits from Asia, then spreads to Africa and Europe, before reaching the US, especially California, shortly thereafter.
Source
"Unfortunately, we see that some countries are adding to their existing stocks during our coordinated oil stock release," Birol said. "They are stocking up. This is not helpful. In my view, this is a time for all countries to prove they are responsible members of the international community."
Jeff Currie of Carlyle recently outlined the hoarding risks in a note titled "A Crude Awakening ": "The physical shortfall is the trigger; the behavioral response is the multiplier."
Trump Tells Tehran: "Open the Fuckin' Strait"
Earlier on Easter morning, President Trump unleashed a fierce message on Truth Social: "Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin' Strait , you crazy bastards, or you'll be living in Hell."
Is the pressure building on Trump from the rest of the world (and domestically) to end this 'operation'? And/or are we getting closer to quagmire-inducing boots on the ground?
* * *
Tyler Durden
Sun, 04/05/2026 - 10:05 Close
Sun, 05 Apr 2026 13:55:00 +0000 The Reflexive Rally Was Not Surprising
The Reflexive Rally Was Not Surprising
The Reflexive Rally Was Not Surprising
Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,
The market rallied on Tuesday and Wednesday, with Tuesday’s rally one of the best trading days since 2022. However, that should also be unsurprising, since the best trading days tend to cluster with the worst market periods. As we noted in Stock Market Breadth on Monday:
“The single most damaging decision most investors make during periods of falling stock market breadth is selling. The data on this is unambiguous. Seven of the market’s 10 best days in any given 20-year period occur within two weeks of the 10 worst days , according to JPMorgan Asset Management research. The best days follow the worst days because fear-driven selling creates dislocations that are rapidly corrected. You can see this in the chart below, that the best and worst days are clustered together.”
In other words, while investors are always told to just “buy and hold” because they will miss the 10-BEST days if they don’t, investors should focus on mitigating the risk of significant capital losses during those periods.
This doesn’t mean you can effectively miss all the bad days; however, given that higher-volatility periods tend to cluster, understanding when to reduce exposure can significantly improve outcomes over time. Even if you miss the 10-best days along the way. That math applies with particular force in setups like the current one. Since 1974, according to data compiled by Clear Perspective Advisors, the S&P 500 has returned more than 24% on average following a market correction. Only 25% of the 48 corrections since World War II have progressed into full bear markets. In other words, there is a 75% chance this correction will not turn into a bear market. However, dismissing that 25% entirely is just as foolish for future outcomes.
This is why the rally this past week was not unexpected. Oversold conditions, exhausted sellers, aggressive short positioning, and algorithmic covering all tend to converge after sustained selling pressure. Goldman’s trading desk noted this week that the capitulation checklist is nearly complete, with the S&P now below all key moving averages and below critical CTA selling thresholds. When those conditions are clear, the snap-back can be sharp. But it’s a trap.
Why do I say that? Because that is what I have learned repeatedly over 35 years of managing money. The rallies that come off oversold extremes are seductive precisely because they feel like confirmation that the worst is over. They’re fast, they’re loud, and they draw in sidelined capital chasing performance. Sentiment indicators flip from extreme fear to cautious optimism in a matter of days.
Bottom line: If the bull case for this rally is ‘stocks were down a lot, and people were scared,’ that’s not a fundamental argument. It’s a positioning argument. It expires quickly.
And in the current environment, the macro headwinds haven’t gone anywhere. Even if the Iranian conflict is resolved on Monday, private credit stress remains, the impact of higher oil and gasoline prices is working its way through the economy, and questions remain about artificial intelligence.
But there is another reason to fade this rally.
Earnings Hit Still Coming
The difference between a durable recovery and a dead-cat bounce is almost always visible in the underlying fundamentals, not the price action alone. Right now, the fundamentals argue for caution.
Goldman’s own scenario analysis puts a moderate slowdown path at 6,300 on the S&P 500 and a severe oil-shock path as low as 5,400. Neither of those scenarios is priced into current earnings estimates. S&P 500 companies are still being modeled at roughly $309 per share in earnings for 2026, figures built on assumptions about GDP growth and energy costs that the past eight weeks have materially challenged. When earnings revisions begin in earnest, they tend to hit in waves. We’re likely in the early innings of that process, and it will impact forward returns. The reason is that the market trades off forward earnings expectations; if those expectations fall, the market reprices for lower earnings growth.
Add to that the technical damage. Breaking below the 200-day moving average is not a minor event. Historically, a clean break below that level without a swift recapture has resolved to the downside more often than not. The index now sits below all key moving averages, and the burden of proof has shifted. Bulls need to prove the trend has reversed. Sellers don’t need to prove anything.
“As shown in the comparative table below, understanding the difference between a sustained break of the 200-dma and one that wasn’t was critical to future returns.” – Break Of The 200-DMA
We are still within the first 4-weeks of the break of the 200-day moving average. The market rally this past week, following those five consecutive weekly declines, doesn’t mean the downside risk is over. If the market fails to climb above that now-critical resistance level, the potential for a retest of recent lows increases.
However, this doesn’t mean you get out of the markets entirely.
So, When Should You Start Accumulating
The one thing that bothers me most about the “Perpetual Purveyors of Doom” is that they repeatedly tell you for years that the market is going to crash. Eventually, they will be correct. However, what they don’t tell you is when to start buying the cataclysm. The voices are currently louder than ever.
However, the current market backdrop is nothing like the catastrophic events of the past, such as the financial crisis or the Dot-com crash. This is a well-needed correction after the massive post-“Liberation Day” rally last summer. Nonetheless, the damage done during declines is always troublesome, but it needs to be kept in perspective.
Yes, we certainly suggest using this rally to cash in and reduce risk. After consecutive weekly declines, a rally was inevitable. However, I am also not saying “sell everything” or “stay in cash indefinitely.” The market will eventually bottom and recover. The reason is that the market will eventually “price in” the risk and begin to look forward. The economy will adapt and begin to grow. As such, the question isn’t whether to own equities, it’s just a question of when and at what price.
There are four specific conditions I want to see before moving from a defensive to a constructive stance. None of them requires perfect clarity. All of them require meaningful evidence.
None of these conditions exists today. They may develop over the coming weeks or months. When they do, I’ll tell you. However, here is how to position for what is likely coming next.
?? Key Catalysts Next Week
The first full week of Q2 is book-ended by two events that will define the rate narrative for the next two months: the FOMC Minutes on Wednesday and March CPI on Friday. Everything else is secondary, other than what oil prices are doing.
The March 17–18 FOMC Minutes are the week’s first inflection point, but we already know the outcome. The Fed held rates steady at 3.50–3.75%, with only Miran dissenting in favor of a cut. However, the minutes will reveal how close the internal debate actually was. Given that the March meeting was the first to formally incorporate the Iran oil shock, the 15% global tariff regime, and the February payroll collapse into the Summary of Economic Projections, the minutes will be important to consider. In those projections, core inflation forecasts were revised higher to 2.7% for 2026, while GDP was upgraded to 2.4%. That combination, hotter inflation with resilient growth, justified the hold. But the question the markets need answered now is whether the spike in oil prices, which will eventually weigh on economic growth, changes that math.
Speaking of oil prices, Friday’s March CPI is the week’s anchor and arguably the most consequential inflation print of the year so far. February came in at +0.3% MoM headline and +2.4% YoY, with core at +0.3% / 2.8%. But March is the first month that fully captures the oil price surge toward $100 following the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran. Energy-specific CPI rose 0.6% in February before the worst of the oil spike, which March will make materially worse. Food prices were already accelerating at +0.4% MoM. The core goods basket is where tariff passthrough resided, and RBC’s analysis flagged that declines in used-car prices had been masking the pressure in prior months. A hot March CPI could push rate cuts into December at the earliest, or off the table entirely. Any print above 0.4% MoM headline or 0.3% core will confirm those expectations.
Bottom line: The FOMC Minutes tell us what the Fed was thinking. The March CPI tells us whether they were right to hold. If inflation is accelerating while the labor market weakens, the policy trap is confirmed, and the market will have to price accordingly.
Investor Tactics For What Comes Next
Following five consecutive weekly declines, the market’s bounce this week could continue for a bit longer. This isn’t rocket science, and is something we repeat often. It is just a process to manage near-term risk.
Treat any near-term rally as an opportunity to rebalance, not to add exposure. Use strength to trim positions outside your target allocation and to reduce concentration in sectors most exposed to energy-cost pressure — consumer discretionary, industrials, and highly leveraged names.
Raise cash to a level that lets you sleep at night and act when opportunities arrive. That number is different for every investor, but the point is intentional: cash is a position, not a failure of nerve. Having it means you can be opportunistic when others are forced to sell.
Hedge risk that you want to keep. If you hold long-term positions, consider hedging them to reduce portfolio volatility.
Watch the 200-DMA retake attempt closely. A failed retake — where the market rallies back toward that level and then rolls over — is one of the clearest signals that the intermediate-term trend remains down. A successful retake on expanding volume materially changes the picture .
Stress-test your portfolio for oil above $100 through year-end. Goldman’s bear case is 5,400 on the S&P. That’s a decline from current levels that would test the tolerance of most retail investors. Know your number before the market finds it for you.
Don’t abandon fixed income. Duration has been painful, but investment-grade credit and short-term Treasuries are doing exactly what they should: providing ballast. A barbell approach — short-duration credit on one side, selectively opportunistic equity exposure on the other — remains the structure most likely to survive what comes next.
Again, this is nothing new, and we can sum it all up in just five words:
Defense over offense. Trade accordingly.
The one silver lining is valuation. As Morgan Stanley noted this past week, the S&P now trades roughly 17% cheaper than pre-war levels on forward earnings. That is approaching ranges historically associated with correction endings, provided the economy avoids recession, and the Fed doesn’t hike.
There is no guarantee of either, so caution remains a “trading position.”
Tyler Durden
Sun, 04/05/2026 - 09:55 Close
Sun, 05 Apr 2026 12:45:00 +0000 Third Order Effects Begin: U.S. Airlines Hike Bag Fees As Jet Fuel Prices Spike
Third Order Effects Begin: U.S. Airlines Hike Bag Fees As Jet Fuel Prices Spike
The New York Harbor jet fuel benchmark has doubled in just five weeks as the aviation fuel crisis spreads from airport to airport worldwide following o
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Third Order Effects Begin: U.S. Airlines Hike Bag Fees As Jet Fuel Prices Spike
The New York Harbor jet fuel benchmark has doubled in just five weeks as the aviation fuel crisis spreads from airport to airport worldwide following ongoing disruptions at the Hormuz chokepoint. The third-order effects of that energy shock began to materialize this past week, with major U.S. airlines raising checked-bag fees to offset soaring fuel costs.
United Airlines and JetBlue Airways, two major U.S. carriers, raised checked-baggage fees for domestic travel this week as they begin to figure out ways to address the impact of surging jet fuel prices without causing ticket sticker shock for customers.
On Monday, JetBlue raised first-checked-bag prices by $4 to $9, depending on the timing and travel date. Later in the week, United raised its checked-bag fee by $10 for new bookings, pushing some domestic economy bag fees as high as $50.
Both airlines said the increased fees are uncommon, with JetBlue citing higher operating costs and United noting it was the first increase in two years.
"United is raising first and second checked bag fees by $10 for customers traveling in the U.S., Mexico, Canada, and Latin America beginning with tickets purchased Friday, April 3," the airline said.
There have been no other indications (yet) from American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Southwest Airlines, or Frontier Airlines on whether they will follow, but we suspect similar measures are approaching if jet fuel prices remain elevated through the end of this month.
Wall Street analysts have noted that raising baggage fees may be a better near-term option than aggressively hiking ticket prices, allowing airlines to shore up eroded margins hit hard by the fuel shock while limiting customer backlash.
United CEO Scott Kirby has already warned that ticket prices may need to rise by as much as 20% to offset the surge in fuel costs. He has urged travelers to lock in fares before prices move higher.
Last month, analysts at Deutsche Bank and UBS both warned that airlines may have to cut capacity to absorb the spike in jet fuel prices. Reduced capacity, combined with higher fuel costs, points to possible demand destruction in travel this summer as consumers face sticker shock at the checkout screen.
The S&P 500 Airlines Index has not fared well during the five-week Middle East conflict. The index is already showing a technical breakdown as analysts begin to worry about margin erosion.
That said, UBS analyst Atul Maheswari believes a possible bottom may be forming . We will see about that ...
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Tyler Durden
Sun, 04/05/2026 - 08:45 Close
Sun, 05 Apr 2026 12:30:00 +0000 "WE GOT HIM!": Trump Says As 2nd Downed Pilot Recovered In High Risk Iran Special Forces Raid After 'Dicey' Firefight
"WE GOT HIM!": Trump Says As 2nd Downed Pilot Recovered In High Risk Iran Special Forces Raid After 'Dicey' Firefight
"WE GOT HIM!": Trump Says As 2nd Downed Pilot Recovered In High Risk Iran Special Forces Raid After 'Dicey' Firefight
Summary
Second downed pilot recovered after US Special Forces raid and firefight inside Iran.
Fire Breaks Out At Kuwait Oil Ministry Complex After Iran Drone Strike
President Trump reminds Iran of deal timeline, threatens "all hell will reign down" if time runs out.
Israel launched heavy strikes on Tehran , targeting Iranian air-defense and ballistic-missile sites, while a projectile also hit the perimeter of Iran's Bushehr nuclear plant
The U.S. military continued search operations for an American airman who ejected after an F-15E fighter jet was shot down over Iran
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US Special Forces Recover 2nd Downed Pilot
We have now witnessed an initial 'boots on the ground' moment as a high risk US special forces raid and aerial operation has recovered the second crew member from the downed F-15E jet , which was shot down in Iran on Saturday. US officials have confirmed that the downed pilot from the F-15E jet has been "recovered" in Iran following a "heavy firefight" - according to Al Jazeera, Axios, and others.
Per Axios : "The shootdown was a nightmare scenario for the U.S. military, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) also racing to locate the missing U.S. officer in southwest Iran over the past 36 hours. Both crew members were rescued in special forces operations inside Iran."
The report continues, "One of the U.S. officials said Saturday's operation was conducted by a specialized commando unit with a high volume of air cover , that the U.S. forces unleashed a hail of heavy fire, and that all of the forces were now out of Iran."
Former Ranger/Special Forces veteran turned journalist Jack Murphy first broke the story late Saturday night. His investigative reporting on sensitive operations, particularly in Syria, has been previously featured by ZeroHedge . He writes :
Good news for once. F-15 WSO recovered alive. Was escaping and evading. Massive fire fight on tgt. Iranians were actively looking for him in the area .
He called the whole saga "dicey as hell" but says late into the night (US time) that all American forces are now out of harm's way...
President Trump issued a statement on Truth Social: "WE GOT HIM! ..."
More from Jack Murphy...
Intense Clashes Reported Between US and Iranian Forces Over Search And Rescue Of Downed F-15 Crew Member
There are intense clashes underway according to unconfirmed reports, between US and Iranian forces in Southwestern Iran, in the Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari provinces, related to rescue operations for our downed F-15 crew member who contrary to multiple rumors, has not been extracted yet.
The video below shows fighting between USAF CSAR teams and IRGC Basij militants attempting to capture the second F-15E crew member.
According to unconfirmed reports, the IRGC has sent a special team to the region, and heavy clashes between them and the U.S. Army are ongoing.
Reports indicate that clashes continue in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad, with many IRGC forces present on the ground.
According to subsequent reports, In the village of Shitab near Dehdasht, where rumors spread that the pilot had been seen, a large crowd gathered to capture him. According to reports, a U.S. A-10 fighter jet has been deployed to the area for support.
The U.S. Army has established a “fire zone” in the Dehdasht area inside Iran, around the location where the missing U.S. pilot was reportedly found alive. The U.S. is not allowing anyone to enter this area. US military search on the Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad mountains continues
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Fire Breaks Out At Kuwait Oil Ministry Complex After Iran Drone Strike
Kuwait’s Finance Ministry said an Iranian drone targeted the country’s Ministries Complex Saturday evening, causing significant material damage. No injuries were recorded and emergency teams are dealing with the incident, the ministry said in a statement. The complex, located in Kuwait City, is home to several ministries including the Finance Ministry, Industry and Commerce and the Justice Ministry. Employees of the complex will be working remotely Sunday, the statement said. A drone attack also caused a fire just a few miles away at the Shuwaikh oil sector complex in Kuwait City, officials said. Kuwait said it was intercepting waves of drones and missiles during the time of the attacks.
Additionally, according to Kuwait's Ministry of Electricity, two Kuwaiti power and water desalination plants were attacked by Iranian drones, causing 'significant damage.'
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President Trump Reminds Iran of Timeline, Threatens "All Hell Will Reign Down"
As the long weekend continues, President Trump has issued a statement on his social media feed, reminding Iranian negotiators of his timeline for a deal:
Remember when I gave Iran ten days to MAKE A DEAL or OPEN UP THE HORMUZ STRAIT.
And then the threat:
Time is running out - 48 hours before all Hell will reign down on them.
Glory be to GOD! President DONALD J. TRUMP
The odds of 'boots on the ground' have soared to 83% by the end of the month:
It seems the stock market's hope (diverging from oil's surge) was misplaced...for now.
Search Operations Continue for Missing Airmen Continues
With U.S. and Israeli air-delivered munitions still striking targets across Iran, and Tehran retaliating by hitting high-value sites around the Gulf area, while continuing to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, the conflict is now entering its sixth week with no credible signs of near-term de-escalation. Add in President Trump's speech last week, which warned that intense targeting could continue for a few more weeks, and it's a very fair assessment that the conflict will carry into next week, with momentum and escalation to the upside.
On Saturday, the U.S. military continued search operations for an American airman who ejected after an F-15E fighter jet was shot down over Iran, marking the first downed U.S. aircraft in the conflict. One crew member was rescued, but the second remained missing, with Iranian forces also racing to find the missing pilot.
The downed F-15 jet came shortly after a U.S. Black Hawk was hit by ground fire, and an A-10 Thunderbolt II reportedly crashed Friday near the Hormuz chokepoint. Friday was not a great day for U.S. aircraft as the conflict intensified.
C-17 Globemaster IIIs are on the move.
Strikes Continue on Both Sides
In a rapidly escalating phase of the US-Israel war on Iran (now around day 36+ since late February strikes that targeted Iranian leadership and infrastructure), Tehran has intensified its retaliation while the US and Israel press air campaigns. Iranian missiles struck central Israel on Saturday, triggering widespread sirens and causing visible damage, including to residential areas and an industrial zone near Beersheba. Reports mentioned cluster bomb effects and shrapnel injuries, though Israeli defenses intercepted many projectiles.
At the same time, Israel launched heavy strikes on Tehran, targeting Iranian air-defense and ballistic-missile sites, while a projectile also hit the perimeter of Iran's Bushehr nuclear plant, according to the semiofficial Iranian Tasnim news agency. The International Atomic Energy Agency said Iran had notified them about the incident.
Let's not forget President Trump's speech on Wednesday, in which he suggested the conflict could continue for weeks and insisted the missing airman would not alter efforts to negotiate an end to the conflict.
Iran launched a fresh missile barrage at central Israel, causing fires, damage in areas like Negev, Rosh Haayin, Bnei Brak, and reports of cluster munitions; minor injuries reported, with one man hurt in Bnei Brak.
An apparent Iranian drone damaged the Dubai headquarters of the U.S. tech giant Oracle on Saturday after Iranian forces threatened dozens of US firms. Iran has been targeting Gulf area data centers, and reports of a water desalination plant on Friday made headlines.
Latest headlines
(courtesy of Bloomberg):
US Military Losses
Iran shot down a US F-15E Strike Eagle fighter jet on Friday, with one crew member still missing and search-and-rescue operations ongoing [APW] [BN] [APW]
A second US combat plane reportedly crashed in the Persian Gulf the same day [BN] [APW]
Iran has called on the public to find the 'enemy pilot' and is promising a reward [APW]
Iran says it used a new air defence system to target the US fighter jet [NS1]
Iranian Attacks
Iran's Revolutionary Guards targeted an Israel-linked ship, the MSC Ishyka, with a drone attack in the Strait of Hormuz, setting it on fire [NS8] [NS1]
Iranian cluster missiles hit central Israel with at least four impact sites and reports of vehicles on fire [NS8]
Missile fragments impacted near Tel Aviv after an Iranian missile barrage, with no casualties reported [JPT]
US-Israeli Strikes
US-Israeli strikes allegedly hit multiple areas in Iran on Saturday, targeting government-affiliated and industrial facilities including the Bushehr nuclear site [NS8]
More than 30 universities across Iran have been directly targeted by US-Israeli strikes since the war began in late February [NS8]
The US destroyed the B1 Bridge in Karaj on April 2 in two separate bombings, targeting what Iran describes as a civilian engineering project [NS8]
Diplomatic Efforts
Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt are working to bring the US and Iran back to the negotiating table with a compromise framework focusing on ending hostilities and reopening the Strait of Hormuz [NS8]
Global Impact
The war has entered its sixth week with energy prices rising and little sign that Iran will back down or reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz [BN]
Senegal has banned all but essential foreign trips for government ministers due to cost-saving measures triggered by the energy crisis linked to the Iran war [APW]
Chinese firms with ties to the military are marketing detailed intelligence on US force movements as the war continues [WPT]
In commodity markets, the ongoing energy shock, with crude and LNG facilities across the Gulf area disrupted and the Hormuz chokepoint still clogged, prompted Goldman analyst Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby to ask on Friday evening: "Are We Running Out Of Oil?"
"As the last tankers that crossed the Strait of Hormuz before the war are reaching their destination, concerns about potential oil shortages are rising," Grigsby told clients.
She said, "We analyze country-product-specific oil markets, identify pockets of potential extreme tightness, and discuss the potential evolution of near-term shortages if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed for longer."
"Our three-way analysis highlights already critically low supplies of petrochemical feedstocks -- naphtha and LPG -- in Asia, with cross-product scarcity in multiple Asian countries in April," the analyst added.
To end the week, Brent futures and WTI futures both closed Friday in triple-digit territory as traders are becoming increasingly alarmed not just of the crude oil and LNG shortage spreading worldwide but also of petrochemical supply disruptions that are inbound that could affect plastics production , the core material that is bedrock for the modern economy.
Let's remind readers of how the energy shock dominoes fall.
JPMorgan analysts mapped out how the energy shockwave from the Iran war spreads across the world, hitting Asia first, then Africa and Europe, before settling on the US - primarily California.
Source
We'll provide updates throughout the day as the situation in the Middle East is ongoing.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 04/05/2026 - 08:30 Close
Sun, 05 Apr 2026 12:10:00 +0000 Czech Government Caps Fuel Prices And Cuts Diesel Tax To Combat Surging Costs At The Pump
Czech Government Caps Fuel Prices And Cuts Diesel Tax To Combat Surging Costs At The Pump
Czech Government Caps Fuel Prices And Cuts Diesel Tax To Combat Surging Costs At The Pump
By Thomas Brooke of RMX news ,
The Czech government has moved to cap fuel prices and slash diesel taxes in an effort to curb rising costs due to the ongoing international energy crisis, announcing a system that will see the state set maximum daily prices for fuel across the country.
Prime Minister Andrej Babiš said the intervention follows concerns that fuel retailers were charging excessive margins, despite earlier pressure from the government to bring prices down voluntarily.
Under the new system, the Ministry of Finance will determine a maximum fuel price each day, applying to all gas stations nationwide. Officials estimated that diesel, if the cap came into force on Thursday, would currently be capped at 46.43 Czech crowns per liter, or around €1.89.
“We monitored the margins and at the beginning of the conflict they were within the norm, but gradually they became excessive,” Babiš said, adding that negotiations with distributors had only partially reduced prices. “We decided to intervene.”
The government will also introduce a cap on retailer margins, setting the maximum allowable profit at 2.50 crowns (€0.10) per liter for both petrol and diesel.
Alongside the price controls, ministers approved a targeted tax cut on diesel fuel. Excise duty will be reduced by 1.939 crowns per liter, equivalent to 2.35 crowns (€0.10) including VAT, in a move officials say is permitted under EU rules. The Ministry of Finance estimates the measure will cost the state budget around 1 billion crowns (€40.8 million).
Finance Minister Alena Schillerová said the combined approach of price caps and tax cuts was designed to immediately lower costs while preventing excessive pricing behavior in the market.
“It is calculated as the average of wholesale indices from Cepro, Orlen, and MOL, plus a margin of 2.50 crowns and VAT,” she said, outlining how the daily maximum price will be set.
The ministry will publish the price each weekday at 2 p.m. for the following day.
Schillerová added that the margin cap was based on historical data adjusted for inflation, with the aim of eliminating what she described as disproportionately high pricing by retailers.
The measures will formally take effect on April 8.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 04/05/2026 - 08:10 Close
Sun, 05 Apr 2026 11:35:00 +0000 All German Men Aged 17-45 Must Now Obtain Army Approval For Trips Abroad Lasting Over 3 Months
All German Men Aged 17-45 Must Now Obtain Army Approval For Trips Abroad Lasting Over 3 Months
All German Men Aged 17-45 Must Now Obtain Army Approval For Trips Abroad Lasting Over 3 Months
All German men aged between 17 and 45 now need approval from the Bundeswehr - i.e., the German army - for longer stays abroad. Under the new Military Service Act, this applies to trips abroad lasting more than three months, the Defence Ministry has announced. The daily Frankfurter Rundschau was the first to report on the change.
The rule is part of what is known as the Military Service Modernisation Act, which came into force on 1 January 2026. The law is intended to ensure that the Bundeswehr is fit for the future in terms of personnel and organization. Plans include, among other things, a more attractive form of voluntary military service, broader registration of young men and new legal instruments to enable faster action if needed.
What the new law says
Specifically, this concerns paragraph 3 of the Conscription Act, which governs the scope and duration of compulsory military service in Germany. Paragraph 1 states: "Compulsory military service is fulfilled by military service or [...] by civilian service ." The provision applies to all men of conscription age between 18 and 45.
The newly worded paragraph 2 now says: "Male persons who have reached the age of 17 must obtain approval from the competent Bundeswehr careers centre if they intend to leave the Federal Republic of Germany for longer than three months [...]."
As long as military service remains voluntary, this approval is deemed to have been granted, a ministry spokesman said. The aim, he added, was to find a straightforward arrangement for people travelling abroad. For as long as military service is voluntary, approval is in principle regarded as granted.
However, the necessary administrative regulations have not yet entered into force. In theory, therefore, it still formally applies that 'approval from the competent Bundeswehr careers centre must be obtained' before travelling abroad for more than three months. The spokesman stressed, however: 'Since, under current law, military service is based exclusively on voluntary service, such approvals are in principle to be granted.'
The reasoning and the back story
Since Russia's attack on Ukraine around four years ago, the defence of Europe has once again moved more sharply into focus. Against this backdrop, the previously suspended system of conscription is also being hotly debated once more.
At the beginning of this year, the Military Service Modernisation Act came into force. In future, young men are once again to be systematically registered and called up for assessment. The federal government aims thereby to increase the strength of the Bundeswehr from the current roughly 184,000 to between 255,000 and 270,000 service personnel by 2035.
A spokeswoman for the Defence Ministry told IPPEN.MEDIA: "In an emergency we need to know who is potentially staying abroad for a longer period."
The impact is 'profound', ministry admits
This far-reaching encroachment on personal autonomy previously applied only in exceptional cases - namely in a state of tension or defence - that is, when an attack by another country is highly likely.
Now, however, paragraph 2 has been revised. It now additionally states: "Outside a state of tension or defence, sections 3 [...] apply." This means that the rule set out in paragraph 3 now applies as a matter of principle.
The Defence Ministry acknowledges that the impact is "profound". Young men who, for example, want to spend a semester abroad or take a gap year must first obtain approval from a Bundeswehr careers centre. For this reason, "more detailed rules governing exemptions from the approval requirement are currently being drawn up at the Federal Ministry of Defence".
It is still unclear what consequences people face if they fail to obtain approval before a longer stay abroad, although in a country where the wrong retweet gets you a prison sentence we can only imagine.
According to RND, a large newspaper chain, the Defence Ministry initially declined to explain why the public had not been clearly informed about the new rules.
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Tyler Durden
Sun, 04/05/2026 - 07:35 Close