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Mon, 20 Apr 2026 01:00:00 +0000 "The Foundations Of Dollar Dominance Are Weaker than Anticipated..."
"The Foundations Of Dollar Dominance Are Weaker than Anticipated..."
"The Foundations Of Dollar Dominance Are Weaker than Anticipated..."
Authored by Christoph Gisiger via themarket.ch,
Economist Barry Eichengreen is one of the foremost experts on the global financial system. His new book examines 2,500 years of international currency history. In this interview, he discusses the fading hegemony of the dollar, outlines the coming global monetary order, and explains his growing concerns.
King Dollar is staging a comeback. Since the start of the Iran war, the greenback has been in demand as a safe-haven asset. The losses following the price slide at the beginning of the year against the Swiss franc, euro, and other major currencies have been recuperated.
Yet, although the dollar accounts for around 60% of global foreign exchange reserves and dominates more than half of world trade, its hegemony appears more fragile than ever.
"From the war in Iran to the tariff chaos and domestic political uncertainty, I fear that the Trump administration's actions are prompting the rest of the world to reduce its dependence on the dollar; “most obviously in Europe but elsewhere as well"
- Barry Eichengreen.
This is the conclusion reached by Barry Eichengreen. In his new book, "Money Beyond Borders: Global Currencies from Croesus to Crypto" , the US economist examines the long history of international currencies, from ancient coins to blockchain technology. He demonstrates that the same factors contributing to the widespread use of a dominant currency ultimately lead to its replacement.
As the professor at the University of California, Berkeley, and profound expert on the global monetary system argues, the dollar is now on the downside of this cycle. A major reason for its downturn is that political institutions in the US are weakened, including high public debt and attacks on the independence of the central bank. Likewise, America is no longer a reliable partner for international alliances.
“To me, the argument that the dollar is in a secular decline as the dominant global currency remains intact,” says Eichengreen.
In this wide-ranging interview, which has been lightly edited for length and clarity, he applies historical examples of leading currencies to the present and identifies potential winners and losers should intensify the flight from dollar assets.
Contrary to increasing doubts, the dollar has proven itself as a safe haven since the start of the Iran war. From a historical perspective, what are the central characteristics of a global reserve currency ?
There are some commonplace arguments about the foundations of an international currency. They typically center around the importance of economic size, commercial trading, preeminence, and economic and financial stability, including the stability of the currency itself. In my book, however, I also advance some unconventional arguments; domestic factors such as rule of law, separation of powers, central bank independence as well as representation for investors and creditors. Furthermore, I examine the role of international politics and the importance of alliances, which until recently haven't gotten the same attention.
What can be derived from this for the future of the dollar? Does the current recovery mark a sustainable turnaround? Or does the long-term downward trend that began in autumn 2022 remain intact?
I would anticipate a further decline because we have learned something new and important from the last year and a half: that those domestic political institutions in the United States are weaker. They're more fragile than we had concluded in earlier, more complicated years. Consequently, I think the foundations of dollar dominance are weaker than previously anticipated, and that the dollar is likely to continue ceding market share globally over time.
Why are aspects like the rule of law and strong, independent institutions important for a global reserve currency?
They are a key pillar of every dominant global currency in history, all the way back to the Roman Republic where the senate was composed of property owners and other elites who were interested in monetary stability. In political democracies, citizens maintain the power to vote out governments that fail to preserve monetary stability. So I worry that observers look at the United States and ask: if Donald Trump chooses to put his signature on dollar bills today, and then seeks to debase or devalue the US currency tomorrow, who is going to stop him? Will Congress stand up to him? Or the courts? It's very worrisome.
Within the Trump administration, however, it is argued that the dollar's function as a global reserve currency is a burden for America. How did this play out with previous leading currencies?
History suggests that widespread global use of a currency can have negative side effects. The currency tends to be stronger than it would otherwise be, which can create headwinds for domestic industry and exporters. You saw this in 13th- and 14th-century Florence, in the 17th-century Netherlands, and arguably in early 20th-century Britain. So I wouldn't dismiss it entirely, but a currency's value on the foreign exchange markets ranks about tenth on the list of fundamental factors determining the competitiveness of a country and its economy. Far more important are education and training of the workforce, investment in the capital stock and infrastructure, the innovative capacity of the economy, and the legal framework as I just mentioned in the context of the United States today.
What consequences does this have for the financial markets ?
At the beginning of 2025, all the discussion was about a “Mar-a-Lago accord,” the “debasement trade,” and the idea that the US might do something to devalue the dollar. This undermined the dollar's appeal to foreign central banks, corporations, and investors because they faced the risk of capital losses on their dollar-denominated assets. More recently, the discussion has shifted toward geopolitical uncertainties. For Europe, for example, it has become increasingly important to be more self-sustaining, more sovereign over its money and finances. This includes reducing dependence not only on the dollar itself, but also on the US correspondent banking system and the SWIFT network.
Nevertheless, the dollar's recovery has surprised many market participants in recent weeks .
The point I would make regarding the dollar's apparent recovery so far in 2026 is that in the first two trading days following the outbreak of the war in Iran, the currency strengthened by approximately 1.5%. That reaction was typical of the dollar's role as a safe haven, but 1.5% was a small gain by historical standards given the magnitude of the shock. Against the backdrop of this geopolitical and military turbulence, the surprise is that the dollar has not strengthened any more. So to me, the argument that the dollar is in a secular decline as the dominant global currency remains intact.
You mentioned at the beginning that military supremacy was one aspect of a leading currency in the past. How important is this factor?
Looking back at the 2500-year history of international currencies – from ancient Greece to the Roman Republic to the Dutch Republic to when Britannia ruled the waves in the 19th century –, economic or commercial power and military security have always gone together. They have always combined to support the cross-border use of the currency of that preeminent commercial and military power. Today, it seems that this kind of geopolitical leverage has two elements: first, you must possess a vast arsenal of planes and missiles; Second, you must also have a coherent military strategy. For instance, the Dutch East India Company was not only a trading power but also, de facto, a military power that secured the Low Countries' ports in the Dutch East Indies.
How does that stand today, considering the US actions in the Middle East?
It is evident that the US government lacks a solution for ensuring safe maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. So the fact that the US has a lot of planes and missiles is not sufficient. You have to have a coherent strategy, and that strategy should have, number one, a coalition of countries behind it – that's where alliance politics come in again – and a coherent objective. It's clear the US lacks those two elements in the present instance.
What is a historical example of how a reliable alliance policy promotes the status of a global reserve currency?
The best example is the United States itself after World War II, when the dollar durably became the dominant global currency. We provided dollars to our allies through the Marshall Plan and helped to build NATO in order to strengthen our political relations with those partners. So in the 1960s, when the dollar pegged to gold at $35 an ounce came under pressure, the governments in Japan and Germany supported the dollar because they were our alliance partners, relying on the US for military and geopolitical support. That underscores the intersection of geopolitics and global finance in cementing international alliances. We were a trustworthy alliance partner which solidified the dollar's role.
Today, that is no longer so certain. President Trump describes NATO as a paper tiger and threats that the US could withdraw from the alliance. As an economist, what do you think about that?
The importance of not succumbing to the temptation to think like an economist. We are trained to look for a coherent strategy on part of the US administration; and that also applies to maintaining the global role of the dollar. At one point last year, Trump has threatened the risk of increased tariffs on other countries if they moved away from the dollar. But almost the next day, he reiterated his desire for the Fed to cut interest rates and suggested how a weaker dollar would be good for the US. So I don't think there is really a coherent strategy here. From the war in Iran to the tariff chaos and domestic political uncertainty, I fear that the Trump administration's actions are prompting the rest of the world to reduce its dependence on the dollar; most obviously in Europe but elsewhere as well.
In your book, you also explain how superpowers in the past overextended themselves financially with military spending, which ultimately led to the decline of their currency. How great is this risk for the US, especially as President Trump wants to massively increase the military budget in the next fiscal year?
In 2021, I published a book with co-authors called «In Defense of Public Debt» . Between then and now, my view of the debt situation in the US has grown darker. I've modified my views in light of interest rates that are significantly higher today, as they make the US debt situation increasingly problematic. And now, we're on top of that more military spending. Given the deep political polarization, Congress is unable to reach a durable compromise that would begin closing the budget deficit. On all those grounds, continued high polarization, increased military spending, and higher interest rates, the debt trajectory is more troubling. This will be a powerful factor affecting the decisions of central bank reserve managers and others as they determine which currencies to hold in their portfolios.
But then the question arises: what are the alternatives? China, for example, is investing heavily in expanding its military power, but the renminbi's share of global foreign exchange reserves remains low and has even declined slightly recently.
The Chinese economy is continuing to grow faster than the US economy, and other countries use the renminbi in their trade with China. However, politics are an obstacle to China's aspirations to internationalize its currency and establish it as a true first-class rival to the dollar. So the questions regarding US politics apply to China even more powerfully. China lacks the separation of powers, and the rule of law is subject to whatever the Politburo and the president decide tomorrow morning it should be. Furthermore, there is no central bank independence. Since I don't see China's political system changing anytime soon, I doubt central banks and corporate treasurers around the world feel comfortable about parking their reserves in renminbi in Shanghai, in Chinese banks.
The independence of monetary policy is also a hot topic in the US right now. What can be expected from Kevin Warsh as the next head of the Federal Reserve?
I don't have expectations yet because he has a mixed track record, and his signals have been conflicting. He urged the Fed to tighten early during the global financial crisis, which would have been premature. He also had questions about quantitative easing during the global liquidity and deflation crisis when it was essential. More recently, he has flipped from supporting higher interest rates to calling for lower ones. Assuming he gets confirmed, he will be caught between a rock and a hard place. The hard place is that inflation will be going up to more than 4%, if you believe the OECD, and the rock is Donald Trump.
Which is the greater risk for the Fed regarding the rise in energy prices: an inflationary surge or a slowdown in economic growth?
The answer depends on your view of whether the energy shock and the rise in inflation are temporary or persistent. If the shock is temporary, the Fed should look through it and refrain from raising interest rates because inflation will subside. However, if the shock persists due to the war, the Fed must raise interest rates to dampen down inflation and preserve its credibility. It can't achieve anything else, including fighting unemployment, if it doesn't maintain its anti-inflationary credibility first in the face of a permanent price shock.
Let's try to look a bit further ahead. What can be learned from 2,500 years of international currency history about the future of the financial system?
If we have enough time, a few decades, I could envision a smooth transition in which the dollar's dominance declines toward a more multipolar global monetary and financial system. The dollar might then share its global role with other major currencies such as the Chinese renminbi as China opens its financial markets and deepens its financial systems' liquidity. The euro could also gain prominence, if the European Union achieves three objectives: completing the capital markets union, building a defense capability commensurate with dominant currency status, and moving towards the issuance of EU bonds, serving as the bedrock of euro-denominated portfolios. The third step, issuing more EU bonds, would require amending the Treaty of the European Union, which is hard to do. Additionally, digital technologies can make non-traditional reserve currencies better tradable. This includes the Swiss franc, the South Korean won, the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar, the Singapore dollar, and the Scandinavian currencies. These could complement the currencies of the major economies, at least on the margin.
In this context, what are the prospects for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin?
Blockchain and distributed ledger technology represent an important innovation, offering alternatives to the dollar by providing payment rails that can be used to move tokens denominated in various currencies across borders for international transactions. The question is: what will run on those rails? Will it be plain vanilla cryptocurrencies like Bitcoins, stable coins, central bank digital currencies, or tokenized bank deposits? I would bet on a combination of central bank digital currencies and tokenized deposits. For example, there are lots of deposits in Swiss banks that can be tokenized and used for cross-border transactions through efficient distributed ledger technologies.
And what about gold? Central banks have been increasingly diversifying their reserves with the precious metal for several years.
Gold is there, although I would not expect its role to grow. You can only use it in financial transactions when it's stored at the Bank of England, the London Metal Exchange or the New York Fed. Yet, many central banks have been repatriating their gold for security reasons. Once repatriated, gold becomes sterile: it cannot be swapped or used as collateral for international financial transactions. So, we've learned in the last few weeks that the price of gold can go down, not only up; that it's a volatile asset and risky to hold.
What happens if there isn't enough time for a smooth transition to a more broadly diversified monetary system?
This is where my book ends. If confidence in the dollar is lost abruptly, there will be no alternative at scale, at which point interest rates will rise sharply and the liquidity needed for cross-border trade and finance will dry up. Essentially, 21st-century globalization would be at risk under such a scenario.
What probability would you assign to such a scenario?
The dollar's dominance is much like a massive iceberg melting slowly due to global warming. This process typically occurs at the edges and proceeds gradually, but a large chunk can suddenly break off. Figuratively speaking, the danger lies in the possibility that this melting could accelerate dramatically in response to external events, triggering a collapse. I cannot provide you a probability or a date, but I can share my feeling that we're closer to this nightmare scenario than at any other time in my life. I think we should all be much more worried than we have been in the past.
What should investors take away from this conversation?
I have to have two bits of advice. The first is that investors should read more history with an eye toward understanding the differences between the present and the future from the past. History repeats in different ways; studying it allows investors to discern unique shifts in economic structures and politics within the current conjuncture. The second bit of advice comes from my dissertation advisor, who was James Tobin at Yale. He won the Nobel Prize in the early 1980s for his contributions to portfolio theory. During his press conference on winning the prize, a reporter asked him to explain portfolio theory in non-technical terms. Tobin responded simply: “Don’t put all your eggs in one basket.”
Tyler Durden
Sun, 04/19/2026 - 21:00 Close
Mon, 20 Apr 2026 00:25:00 +0000 8 Of The Top 10 'Most Surveilled' Cities Are Asian
8 Of The Top 10 'Most Surveilled' Cities Are Asian
While quantifying the total number of surveillance cameras in the world remains an almost impossible task, IHS Markit suggested that there would be around 1 billion surveillance cam
Read more.....
8 Of The Top 10 'Most Surveilled' Cities Are Asian
While quantifying the total number of surveillance cameras in the world remains an almost impossible task, IHS Markit suggested that there would be around 1 billion surveillance cameras worldwide
This visualization, via Visual Capitalist, ranks major global cities by the number of CCTV cameras per 1,000 people using data from Comparitech , showing where surveillance is most concentrated.
China is the most-surveilled nation overall, with 700 million cameras (494 per 1,000 people), though per-city data is unavailable. That’s almost one camera for every two people.
While China yet again dominates this study for its vast surveillance tactics, there are other countries whose surveillance tactics are of growing concern, including several Indian, Russian, and South Korean cities, Lahore, Kabul, Singapore, London, Istanbul, New York, and Los Angeles.
Indian cities dominate the rankings, with Hyderabad (79 cameras per 1,000 people) leading globally.
Eight of the top 10 cities are Asian.
The other two most surveilled cities are in Russia .
London is the top 'western' nation on the list with 13.4 cameras per 1,000 people) with New York City topping the list for American cities with 10.12 cameras per 1,000 people).
A number of cities have added (or are adding and/or are encouraging businesses/private residents to add) private surveillance cameras to police networks as part of crime-fighting initiatives. In some cases, these cameras are mapped so police can see where security cameras are and can request footage accordingly. In other cases, police are being given direct access to live feeds from these cameras.
So, where cameras had previously been used for private security purposes only, thousands of these are now being accessed by police, which poses a significant risk to civilians’ privacy.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 04/19/2026 - 20:25 Close
Sun, 19 Apr 2026 23:50:00 +0000 Over 6,000 Apply As Air Traffic Controllers After DOT Secretary Duffy Proposes Recruiting Gamers
Over 6,000 Apply As Air Traffic Controllers After DOT Secretary Duffy Proposes Recruiting Gamers
Over 6,000 Apply As Air Traffic Controllers After DOT Secretary Duffy Proposes Recruiting Gamers
Authored by Bryan Jung via PJMedia.com,
U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy declared the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) campaign to recruit video gamers as air traffic controllers "wildly successful," after over 6,000 applicants submitted forms within the first twelve hours of the program's launch.
The FAA is reporting thousands of applicants applied after its unconventional new recruitment initiative launched on April 17, with the application portal reaching its cap at 8,000 candidates.
The Trump administration is currently looking to address a persistent nationwide shortage of air traffic controllers, as many of the most experienced have retired in recent years.
“To reach the next generation of air traffic controllers, we need to adapt,” Duffy said in a statement.
“This campaign’s innovative communication style and focus on gaming taps into a growing demographic of young adults who have many of the hard skills it takes to be a successful controller.”
The recruitment drive features a high-energy promotional video and messaging that frames job requirements as “mission objectives," which is designed to appeal to Gen Z applicants.
Duffy said that skills common among gamers, such as rapid decision-making, sustained concentration, and the ability to manage multiple inputs simultaneously could be applied to directing air traffic.
“If you think about what gamers are doing on screens, they’re talking, reacting, and managing a lot at once — that’s very similar to what happens in a control tower,” Duffy said during remarks in Washington.
The push comes as the FAA confronts a shortfall of roughly 3,500 air traffic controllers, a gap that has developed over the past decade amid rising demand for air travel.
Federal data shows the number of controllers has declined even as flight volume has increased, placing additional strain on existing personnel and raising broader concerns about system resilience.
To attract candidates, the agency is highlighting the role’s long-term earning potential, noting that certified controllers can earn more than $155,000 annually within three years, but stress that certification remains highly selective and rigorous.
Applicants must be U.S. citizens under the age of 31 and fluent in English, while those who accepted face a multi-stage evaluation process, including the Air Traffic Skills Assessment, medical examinations, and security clearances.
Even then, only about 2 percent ultimately complete the training pipeline, which can take between two and five years.
Industry stakeholders have largely welcomed the campaign as a creative way to broaden the applicant pool.
The air traffic controllers union has expressed support for the program, citing the need to bring in new talent amid ongoing staffing pressures, but cautions that it is not a quick fix due to the significant time required to complete training and certification.
Some aviation experts caution that the influx of applicants will not immediately resolve the shortage, as the lengthy training process and high attrition rates mean that even a successful recruitment effort may take years to translate into fully certified controllers in control towers and radar facilities.
The initiative arrives at a time of heightened scrutiny of aviation safety and operations, with recent incidents drawing attention to a decline in highly trained personnel.
While aviation officials maintain that the system remains safe, they acknowledge that staffing remains a critical issue.
For now, the FAA’s gamer-focused outreach appears to be achieving its immediate goal: capturing the attention of a new generation of potential recruits.
Whether that interest translates into a sustained expansion of the controller workforce will depend on the agency’s ability to guide candidates through one of the most demanding training pipelines in the federal government.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 04/19/2026 - 19:50 Close
Sun, 19 Apr 2026 23:15:00 +0000 Appeals Court Allows Construction Of White House Ballroom To Continue
Appeals Court Allows Construction Of White House Ballroom To Continue
A U.S. appeals court on April 17 put on hold a lower court order that had halted construction of the White House ballroom, allowing the project to proceed
Read more.....
Appeals Court Allows Construction Of White House Ballroom To Continue
A U.S. appeals court on April 17 put on hold a lower court order that had halted construction of the White House ballroom, allowing the project to proceed for now.
Previously, U.S. District Judge Richard Leon issued a preliminary injunction blocking above-ground construction of the ballroom but allowed “below-ground” construction of national security facilities to continue.
Leon had said the project cannot continue without authorization from Congress.
But now, as Aldgra Fredly reports for The Epoch Times , a three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit on April 17 blocked Leon’s injunction and scheduled a June 5 hearing to decide on whether the project should be halted.
The Epoch Times reached out to the National Trust for Historic Preservation, which filed the lawsuit last year, but did not receive a response by publication time.
The White House first announced the project in July 2025, saying it would span 90,000 square feet.
The construction phase began in September 2025, and the ballroom is expected to be completed before President Donald Trump’s presidency ends in early 2029, according to the White House.
The National Capital Planning Commission approved the ballroom project on April 2.
In December 2025, the National Trust for Historic Preservation filed a lawsuit alleging that construction of the White House ballroom is unlawful and requested that the court halt the project.
Leon ruled in favor of the National Trust for Historic Preservation on March 31, ordering that “the ballroom construction project must stop until Congress authorizes its completion.”
The judge later clarified in an April 16 ruling that below-ground construction, including “the construction of any ‘top-secret excavations, bunkers, bomb-shelters, protective partitioning, military installations, and hospital and medical facilities,’ as well as such above-ground construction strictly necessary to cover, secure, and protect such facilities” may proceed.
Trump criticized the judge in a Truth Social post on April 17, calling his ruling “a mockery to [the U.S.] court system.”
“Everybody knew that it was planned, and going to be built. This highly political Judge, and his illegal overreach, is out of control, and costing our Nation greatly,” he wrote.
“The Ballroom is deeply important to our National Security, and no Judge can be allowed to stop this Historic and Militarily Imperative Project.”
The project is expected to cost about $400 million, all of which is expected to be funded by private donors.
According to a list provided by the White House to The Epoch Times, donors contributing funds to the new ballroom include Amazon, Apple, Google, Caterpillar Inc., HP Inc., Lockheed Martin, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Palantir Technologies, and the Union Pacific Railroad.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 04/19/2026 - 19:15 Close
Sun, 19 Apr 2026 22:40:00 +0000 Scientist Claims The Universe Has Seven Dimensions
Scientist Claims The Universe Has Seven Dimensions
Scientist Claims The Universe Has Seven Dimensions
Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,
A prominent physicist has put forward a striking proposal: our universe may not be limited to the four dimensions of space and time we experience every day. Instead, it could operate with seven dimensions in total, with three compact extra layers folded so tightly they remain invisible.
This idea emerges not from science fiction, but from an attempt to resolve one of modern physics’ most enduring puzzles—the black hole information paradox first highlighted by Stephen Hawking in the 1970s.
Richard Pincák, a senior researcher at the Slovak Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Experimental Physics, leads the team behind the new model. The work, published in the journal General Relativity and Gravitation , explores how extra dimensions arranged in a specific geometric structure could prevent black holes from fully evaporating.
The four dimensions we know—three of space and one of time—form the basis of everyday experience and Einstein’s general relativity. But Pincák’s framework adds three more.
“We experience three dimensions of space and one of time — four dimensions in total,” Pincák explained. “Our model proposes that the universe actually has seven dimensions: the four we know, plus three tiny extra dimensions curled up so tightly that we cannot directly perceive them.”
These hidden dimensions take the form of highly symmetrical G?-manifolds. In this geometry, a property called torsion creates a twisting effect in spacetime. At the extremely small scales reached as a black hole shrinks through Hawking radiation, this torsion generates a repulsive force.
The proposal directly confronts the information paradox. Hawking showed that black holes emit radiation and slowly lose mass, eventually evaporating completely. Yet quantum mechanics insists that information cannot be destroyed—only scrambled.
“Imagine you throw a book into a fire,” Pincák said. “The book is destroyed, but in principle you could reconstruct every word from the smoke, ash, and heat — the information is scrambled, not lost.”
In a completely evaporating black hole, however, the information about everything that fell inside appears to vanish forever, creating a fundamental conflict between general relativity and quantum theory.
Pincák’s seven-dimensional model offers an escape. As the black hole approaches its final stages, the torsion-induced repulsive force acts like a brake.
“This repulsive force acts as a brake, halting the evaporation before the black hole vanishes completely,” Pincák noted.
What remains is a stable microscopic remnant, roughly 10 billion times smaller than an electron in mass. This remnant can encode the lost information through subtle oscillations known as quasinormal modes.
The same geometric structure also connects to particle physics. The torsion field in the extra dimensions produces a potential energy landscape that mirrors the one responsible for giving mass to the W and Z bosons via the Higgs mechanism.
“The same torsion field… generates a potential energy landscape that is identical in form to the one responsible for giving mass to the W and Z bosons — the carriers of the weak nuclear force,” Pin?ák said.
This suggests that particle masses could have a geometric origin tied to the hidden dimensions themselves.
The researchers emphasize that their approach does not pretend to solve quantum gravity outright. Semiclassical approximations break down near the Planck scale, where full quantum-gravity effects dominate.
“As the black hole shrinks toward the Planck scale, all existing models — ours included — must eventually confront the transition into the deep quantum-gravity regime,” Pin?ák acknowledged.
“What distinguishes our approach is that we do not claim semiclassical evaporation operates all the way down to the remnant mass,” he added. “At that point, a new physical effect … takes over and stabilises the configuration.”
The model makes testable predictions, such as the expected masses of hypothetical Kaluza-Klein particles associated with the extra dimensions—far beyond current accelerator reach but potentially falsifiable in principle.
“The important point is that the predictions are concrete — the model can be wrong, which is what makes it scientific,” Pincák said.
While direct experimental confirmation lies well in the future, the idea builds on concepts familiar from string theory and M-theory, where extra dimensions play a central role in unifying forces. It also ties into earlier work by Pincák’s team exploring G? geometries and their implications for symmetry breaking and particle properties.
For now, the proposal stands as a creative theoretical bridge between gravity, quantum mechanics, and particle physics. It invites fresh thinking about the hidden architecture of reality and whether the universe’s deepest secrets might be woven into dimensions we have yet to perceive.
Whether future observations of primordial black holes, gravitational waves, or high-energy particle collisions lend support remains to be seen. But the elegance of deriving both black hole stability and particle masses from the same geometric framework offers a compelling new lens on long-standing mysteries.
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Tyler Durden
Sun, 04/19/2026 - 18:40 Close
Sun, 19 Apr 2026 22:05:00 +0000 Ruben Gallego's Political Career May Be Toast
Ruben Gallego's Political Career May Be Toast
Ruben Gallego spent the better part of the past year positioning himself as the Democrat who cracked the code for Democrats to start winning back Latino voters.
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Ruben Gallego's Political Career May Be Toast
Ruben Gallego spent the better part of the past year positioning himself as the Democrat who cracked the code for Democrats to start winning back Latino voters.
Gallego won his Arizona Senate seat in 2024, defeating Kari Lake by just over two points, even as President Trump carried the state with relative ease.
That narrow but meaningful victory turned him into something of a Democratic savior - proof that a certain kind of candidate, delivering a certain kind of message, could still resonate with the Latino and working-class voters the party has been hemorrhaging for years. "At a moment when the Achilles' heel for the Democratic Party is Latinos and working-class voters, this is his opportunity to rescue our country, " said Chuck Rocha, an adviser to Gallego, speaking to The Hill earlier this year.
Gallego had mused about a 2028 run just two weeks before this spiral began, telling NBC News,” No matter who runs, even if it's not me, the candidate that wins in 2028 is going to have to get the Latino vote back to at least 62 percent. That is the 'Pass Go' line, collect $200 on the Monopoly board. We didn't hit that in 2024, and that's why we find ourselves in this situation."
For Democrats, Gallego wasn't just a senator from Arizona; he was the future of the party.
That was before Eric Swalwell.
Last week, Swalwell resigned his House seat and withdrew from the California gubernatorial race following a wave of sexual assault allegations, and Gallego has been caught in the fallout. They were close friends, and he chaired Swalwell's 2020 presidential campaign and publicly backed his gubernatorial run. When the Swalwell allegations broke, the questions about Gallego's proximity followed almost immediately. What did he know? When did he know it? His answers have satisfied almost no one.
He held a press conference on Tuesday, attempting to distance himself from Swalwell. "I fell for it," he told reporters, saying Swalwell "lied to all of us."
Unfortunately, it didn’t go so well for him.
Democratic strategist Anthony Coley, a Capitol Hill veteran who once worked for the late Sen. Edward Kennedy, didn’t even try to sugarcoat it.
"If Gallego's press conference was meant to reassure potential voters, donors and activists, it failed, ” he said. “Folded arms and incomplete answers don't shut down a story, they extend it. The party faithful will want real clarity on his relationship with Swalwell before he gets serious consideration for higher office in 2028."
An unnamed Democratic strategist who knows Gallego personally said of his 2028 ambitions: "I think he is done." A second anonymous strategist said Gallego's brand - constructed around the idea of a straight-talking, authentic new kind of Democrat — "took a direct hit this week."
The strategist continued, “He looks lost. He looks like a deer in headlights. " The same source added the observation that underscores why this moment stings so deeply for Democratic insiders: "He's someone that Democrats were pretty invested in and that's why it hurts."
Despite Gallego’s growing problems, not every Democrat is ready to write him off yet. Strategist Brad Bannon argued that the Swalwell friendship "demonstrates poor judgment" but represents "not a major obstacle to the Arizona senator's rapid rise." Strategist Christy Setzer said Gallego "distanced himself thoroughly and effectively" from Swalwell and predicted that only Swalwell would ultimately pay a price — "unless they have similar issues of their own that have yet to be surfaced."
And that could be a problem. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) appeared on CBS News's The Takeout with Major Garrett and accused Gallego of his own unspecified misconduct - including allegations she described as "sexual in nature" and potential campaign finance violations.
Sen. John Thune's office confirmed the matter was under investigation.
Thune's office told The Hill that the material received from Luna had been referred to the Senate Ethics Committee and declined further comment. A Gallego spokesperson called the accusations "right-wing conspiracy theories being parroted by a fringe far-right member of Congress" and said that the Ethics Committee had not contacted Gallego.
The accuser Luna referenced has not yet come forward.
For now, Gallego’s relationship with Swalwell is under scrutiny, and Republicans aren’t about to let the public forget the two were tight.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt called the Swalwell allegations "despicable and disgusting" and singled Gallego out by name, challenging reporters to ask which Democrats knew about Swalwell's behavior and stayed quiet. "I think it's also quite plausible … that there were many other Democrats in this town on Capitol Hill who knew about his perhaps illegal behavior — certainly his disgusting and inappropriate behavior. And why they were silent for so long? I think those are questions that must be raised of the sitting representatives — including Mr. Gallego," Leavitt said.
Gallego isn't up for Senate reelection until 2030, which affords him time to recover. Whether that time is enough depends heavily on what comes next — and whether the accuser that Rep. Luna alluded to eventually steps forward.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 04/19/2026 - 18:05 Close
Sun, 19 Apr 2026 22:00:00 +0000 Another 'Green Dot Sunday': Oil Jumps, Stocks Dump After Weekend Of Escalations
Another 'Green Dot Sunday': Oil Jumps, Stocks Dump After Weekend Of Escalations
Having gone into the weekend with stocks squeezing to record highs and oil prices plunging on euphoric hope that goldilocks was right around the corner
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Another 'Green Dot Sunday': Oil Jumps, Stocks Dump After Weekend Of Escalations
Having gone into the weekend with stocks squeezing to record highs and oil prices plunging on euphoric hope that goldilocks was right around the corner in the Middle East - following Trump's very enthusiastic statements all day - things have gone a 'little bit slightly turbo' again ...
VIDEO
As last week's rally extended, the market’s sensitivity to negative developments diminished .
Investors brushed aside warnings from global institutions about the economic damage. Instead, flows remained supportive and leadership broadened, with technology catching up after a rough start to the year. By Thursday and Friday, the tone had shifted to express the view that the war is all but over and the growth cycle remains intact.
That left markets heading into a critical inflection point.
But the weekend did not offer any help...
First, shortly after the 'close' on Friday, Iran denied most of what Trump claimed as fact with regard 'nuclear dust' and peace-deals.
Then came the Iranians fired upon an Indian tanker attempting to cross the Strait.
And today we have seen the US military strike and seize an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman
On the bright side? ...there are expected to be 'talks' on Tuesday or Wednesday (which Iran has claimed it will not attend).
Soaking all that in left markets back in 'Green Dot Sunday ' mode with oil spiking, equity futures fading, and bitcoin sliding.
WTI spiked almost 9% - back up near $90...
Gas contracts are jumping in early Asian trading, setting up a nervous start for risk assets in the region
*EUROPEAN GAS RISES AS MUCH AS 9.8% AS IRAN CLOSES HORMUZ AGAIN
S&P futures are down around 1%...
Bitcoin has erased all of Friday's gains...
Treasury futures are down, implying around a 5bps jump in 10Y Yields...
AUD is leading losses for G-10 currencies as the US dollar strengthens in early action ...
Gold is down around 1.5%...
As we noted on Friday, the OpEx was extremely call-heavy on a delta notional basis .
SpotGamma estimated the OpEx profile is about 80% weighted to calls, one of the most extreme readings in its data, after the SPX rallied 11% in two weeks.
The problem is that if traders monetize gains instead of rolling positions higher and out, negative dealer hedging flows will put pressures on spot.
Said another way, the rally increasingly looks driven by call buying, which leaves the gains more fragile if the positive narrative starts to wobble and traders rush for the exit .
The technical picture says much the same, with gamma unclenched, opening the door for more volatility (in either direction).
Equities went from oversold to overbought in only two weeks , a very fast reset that can often mark a real regime turn and precede a tactical consolidation that cools the momentum.
Based on recent "stock up, vol up" dynamics , and massive imbalances to call volumes vs puts, SpotGamma sees room for a modest equity correction this week .
They suggested expressing this via S&P500 put spreads .
This is not a statement on the longer term equity dynamics, but a short term overbought condition.
Over the past week, realized intraday SPX moves have consistently exceeded implied expectations .
This environment continues to favor long volatility structures (e.g., straddles/strangles) over short premium strategies, given the current risk/reward setup.
As Bloomberg's Brendan Fagan noted, the bar is no longer low : With equities at records and oil back down, the peace dividend has largely been pulled forward. If talks deliver tangible progress, either a framework or a memorandum to carve out a deal, the current rally can be validated. But if negotiations fall short, the asymmetry becomes more acute.
As a reminder, this is exactly the same picture we saw last Sunday - a major gap up in oil (down in stocks) at the open after the US blockade began... which then rapidly reversed into a monster week...
However, this time is different as after a week defined by markets trading on belief rather than verification, the time to deliver on what’s in the price has arrived.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 04/19/2026 - 18:00 Close
Sun, 19 Apr 2026 21:30:00 +0000 Open Sesame
Open Sesame
Submitted By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities
This week’s market behavior had a mythical, almost magical tone to it.
In Arabian Nights, Ali Baba was able to open a cave of riches by utt
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Open Sesame
Submitted By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities
This week’s market behavior had a mythical, almost magical tone to it.
In Arabian Nights, Ali Baba was able to open a cave of riches by uttering the phrase “Open Sesame.” Markets responded to any and every sort of connotation of “The Strait is Open” by rewarding participants with riches. We started this week bright and early, kicking off Bloomberg TV , and then moving on to Bloomberg Radio , and Tom Keene’s Best Ideas .
At the time we were all trying to understand what “Blockade” meant. How and what was the U.S. going to do in terms of a blockade? Markets were jittery, but somehow, from almost the get go, markets seemed to take the combination of U.S. and Iranian snippets to mean the Strait was Open.
I am not sure how accurate this data set on Bloomberg is (TRHBTKCD index) given all the conflicting stories of what has transited or not, what is running without transponders, etc. But traffic remains subdued.
We have argued that a ceasefire benefited the U.S. more than Iran and that there were some very strong possible outcomes from U.S. efforts in the region. I underestimated how quickly and how big those good outcomes would be reflected in the market.
While “any option” still seemed viable, markets had moved on to not only is a deal close, but it will also be the best possible deal. A deal where Iran not only stops pursuing a nuclear weapon, but they would also provide the U.S. with all of their enhanced uranium.
As the weekend progresses, it is unclear how realistic this type of deal is. There are once again competing narratives about the Strait.
Weirdly, unless you are trading futures, you can skip the “green dot” Sunday night, as time and again , the Sunday night price action has done little to predict how markets would behave once the U.S. opens.
Just How Magical Was “Open Sesame”?
Last weekend, we went with More Than Just Iran . Academy had delivered so much content on Iran, that we wanted to highlight some of the other issues (and opportunities) facing the market.
Software.
Software conclusion – Problem Solved.
IGV (software ETF) rose 14% on the week. ARKK which I use as a “proxy” for disruption, also rallied by 15%. INTC (one of the few individual tickers I’ve been vocal about in reports and the media) said “hold my beer” as it rallied 35% in less than 2 weeks! QTUM (quantum ETF) was up 25% and didn’t sell off as much in the first place – which makes some sense as investment into this area is only increasing.
Private Credit.
While the rebound hasn’t been as strong in private credit (and private credit-related companies) it started to rebound earlier. We liked it “for a trade” as it had seemed to be oversold and was trading “ok” even when bad news hit the tape.
We use BIZD to reflect BDCs more broadly. It has risen “only” 9% since April 1st and despite the rally is still below its post-Liberation Day lows.
GPZ (which has seen AUM pop from just over $100 million when we first mentioned it, to over $250 million, predominantly through inflows) is an ETF that I use to highlight the performance of “alternative asset managers” which includes companies with heavy exposure to private credit. It hit the low back on March 12th, and is up almost 20% since then.
OWL , which has arguably been at the epicenter of the Private Credit discussion, rose 20% in just a week as it put its low in just last Friday.
Private Credit. While not “solved,” this market has been stabilizing for some time. Yes it was propelled higher last week, along with almost everything else, but that seemed to be only “part of the story.”
Rare Earths, Critical Minerals, and Uranium.
This one “confuses” me a little bit more than some of the others. Presumably, the war was going to lead to some sort of slowdown and would decrease the need for rare earths (REMX ) and Uranium-related companies (URA ). Maybe, but war, and more importantly, the replenishment of arsenals, probably isn’t that bad for rare earths and critical minerals.
On uranium, I guess the case could have been made about slowing global demand, but I’m really not sure why an oil shortage was bad for nuclear . One seemingly logical conclusion is that oil, once again highlighting geopolitical risk associated with it, would spur investment into nuclear. It didn’t seem to do that. I’m not sure why Iran handing over enriched uranium and possibly creating a lower risk environment in the Middle East is so good for uranium? I’m long, but can’t really say I understood the price action for the past few weeks.
Rare Earths, Critical Minerals, and Uranium. I guess the “problem” was “solved” but not sure why there was a problem in the first place?
Treasuries
The Treasury market started performing better a few weeks ago and that has continued. We argued that while the initial response to the war would be higher yields, that had become overdone. Now the 10-year has hit our “target” of 4.25%. Our target is for 4.25% on 10s to be the midpoint of the range. If anything, that range might need to be moved lower.
The market is pricing in slightly better than a 50/50 chance of 1 cut this year. While the affordability issue (the way most non-economists now see inflation) will make it difficult to cut, I think the market will have to start pricing in at least one cut ahead of the midterms.
Treasuries. A problem, which was overdone, no longer seems to be a problem, which makes sense.
Bottom Line
Dog-years represent roughly what a dog’s age would be if it was human.
Market participants need to define Trump-years. There has been no slowing of news flow. I see no reason why that would change. In fact, if Iran starts taking up less of the administration’s time, look for the pace of headlines impacting other sectors, relationships, countries, trade, production, jobs, etc. to increase. It seems that I should be able to weave in One Thousand and One Nights into this section, as it fits the Ali Baba and the 40 Thieves theme, but I couldn’t figure out a clever way to do it. It has been a long week! A long month! And even a long year! (Is that the Friend’s theme song?)
Look for lower yields (that seems slightly contrarian here, I think).
I continue to be “pound the table” loud in favor of being heavily overweight the ProSec themes.
I was nowhere near as optimistic on the broad stock market rally as I should have been. Even today, with the benefit of hindsight, it still seems a bit “magical” (or “mechanical”) how well markets behaved in light of the actual headlines. Not the perception of headlines, but the actual headlines. The “Open Sesame” magic that “solved all problems” makes some sense, but positioning may have played a much larger role than we’d like to admit. The faux liquidity of the current trading environment seems to amplify moves.
Let’s hope markets are right and we are near the end. (The exact phrase we used in last weekend’s report).
Things almost seem “too good to be true” but as of now the ceasefire remains intact and other headwinds are being addressed/resolved/ignored which supports the market.
My biggest fears for the economy and risk markets remain affordability, jobs, and the “working poor.” That fear is why I continue to think yields drift lower.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 04/19/2026 - 17:30 Close
Sun, 19 Apr 2026 20:20:00 +0000 Will This Atlantic Hit Piece Be The Final Straw?
Will This Atlantic Hit Piece Be The Final Straw?
Will This Atlantic Hit Piece Be The Final Straw?
Authored by Matt Margolis via PJMedia.com,
The Atlantic has a well-documented history of publishing fake hit pieces about President Donald Trump and his administration, and one wonders how many more hoaxes they can run before they get in real trouble.
Its latest effort targeting FBI Director Kash Patel may be its most reckless yet — and this time, the bureau is fighting back with lawyers.
The piece, written by reporters Sarah Fitzpatrick and Jonathan Lemire, claims that on Friday, April 10, Patel struggled to log into an internal FBI computer system while wrapping up his workday.
He quickly became convinced that he had been locked out, and he panicked, frantically calling aides and allies to announce that he had been fired by the White House, according to nine people familiar with his outreach. Two of these people described his behavior as a “freak-out.”
Patel oversees an agency that employs roughly 38,000 people, including many who are trained to investigate and verify information that can be presented under oath in a court of law. News of his emotional outburst ricocheted through the bureau, prompting chatter among officials and, in some corners of the building, expressions of relief. The White House fielded calls from the bureau and from members of Congress asking who was now in charge of the FBI.
It turned out that the answer was still Patel. He had not been fired. The access problem, two people familiar with the matter said, appears to have been a technical error, and it was quickly resolved.
The piece didn't stop there. It also alleged Patel has been plagued by "bouts of excessive drinking," claiming members of his security detail had trouble waking him on multiple occasions because he was seemingly intoxicated. It further alleged that breaching equipment — the kind used by SWAT and hostage-rescue teams — was requested last year because Patel had been unreachable behind locked doors.
The FBI denied every word of it before the article ever went live. Attorney Jesse Binnall sent a formal letter to The Atlantic and Fitzpatrick ahead of publication, putting them on notice that the claims were "categorically false and defamatory."
The bureau's response was even more direct: "Print it, all false, I'll see you in court — bring your checkbook."
They printed it anyway.
Late Friday night, Patel fired back on X.
It's worth noting that The Atlantic was apparently the only outlet willing to run this story. Other D.C. reporters chased the same tips and couldn't verify them. They passed. The Atlantic published it. And now they're going to be sued.
This is what The Atlantic does. They publish outlandish and bogus stories that no other outlet will touch, which accomplishes the goal of giving Democrats and their supporters reason to insist the stories are true. The outlet’s hoax piece alleging Trump didn’t want to visit the Aisne-Marne American Cemetery near Paris in 2018 because the troops there who died in battle were “losers” and “suckers” was disputed by over a dozen witnesses. Yet, the left still insists it happened—even after Jeffrey Goldberg, the editor-in-chief of The Atlantic, admitted it could have been wrong .
Sarah Fitzpatrick herself has a history of publishing bogus hit pieces lacking sources and corroboration.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt and acting Attorney General Todd Blanche both publicly defended Patel. Blanche praised Patel, noting he "has accomplished more in 14 months than the previous administration did in four years." FBI spokesperson Erica Knight added that since being sworn in, Patel has taken just 17 days off — roughly half the time taken by former directors James Comey and Christopher Wray over comparable stretches.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 04/19/2026 - 16:20 Close
Sun, 19 Apr 2026 19:45:00 +0000 Catching Print? New Feminist Trend Proves They Have Smooth Brains
Catching Print? New Feminist Trend Proves They Have Smooth Brains
For decades insecure women have used feminism as a vehicle to crusade against "body shaming" and male objectification - Which is essentially a war on men who dare to
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Catching Print? New Feminist Trend Proves They Have Smooth Brains
For decades insecure women have used feminism as a vehicle to crusade against "body shaming" and male objectification - Which is essentially a war on men who dare to have beauty preferences.
Nearly every feminist movement has roots in female physical insecurity, from the "fat positivity" movement, to the "slut walk" protests, to diversity requirements that are eliminating attractive women from popular media, to the "inversion" movement in which average women deliberately make themselves uglier "in rebellion" against the men who were never interested in them in the first place.
It's no secret that female insecurity rules almost everything women do politically. One could say that feminism is essentially the weaponization of female insecurity as a means to gain power over society.
The latest trend to spew from the bowels of feminist activism is called "Catching Print" - Activists claim men are objectifying and shaming women, so women should objectify and shame men...by staring at and rating men's junk. The problem is, these people don't seem to understand that the vast majority of men simply don't care.
VIDEO
The trend is, of course, going viral on cesspool sites like TikTok, and it is being popularized by leftist media sites like Cosmopolitan . But, it does offer a perfect opportunity to peer into the mentality of the lowest common denominator and understand why marginalizing them is necessary.
The idea that men are worried about what grotesque feminists think of them is a desperate fantasy. However, these dumpy ladies have that problem covered; they simply pretend as if men are up in arms about the trend and scrambling to hide the bulge in their pants from prying eyes. As always, feminists build a strawman on social media and then tear him down. It's sad, but this makes them feel powerful.
Men sit with their legs spread for a reason - They're never worried about who is looking. If anything it would appear that activist women are jealous of modern men's ability to remain indifferent to women's judgements. And, to be clear, the idea of women trying to shame men into conformity is not new.
Narcissistic females have been using shaming as a manipulation tactic since the dawn of time. Almost every man in the world has been accused of having a "small unit" by a woman who was trying to distract from the fact that she is wrong. Women invented body shaming, mostly to undermine other women out of jealousy. Men's brains do not operate in the same manner.
What feminists call "body shaming" is often nothing more than men have standards and preferences in who they date. In the liberal west, women are applauded and rewarded for having extreme and often absurd preferences (6 feet, 6 figure income, 6 pack abs). Men are demonized merely for not dating fat chicks.
As for the idea of creepy men staring at women, all men know that this is subject to circumstance. If she finds the man attractive, it's not creepy for him to leer. If she doesn't find the man attractive, well, she should probably get over it or avoid going out in public. We have seen endless examples of what feminists consider "creepy", which includes men doing nothing more than glancing in their general direction.
It's time for the ladies to understand and accept the fact that they don't get to dictate who looks at them in public. By extension, men really don't care if women stare at them or the bulge in their pants.
A key element of the feminist agenda requires women to pretend as if they are constant victims, crying about oppression that simply doesn't exist. They then mobilize their smooth-brained movements to attack men for this fake oppression and "flip it". In other words, feminists falsely claim bad behavior by men as an excuse to justify their own bad behavior. It's a classic Marxist maneuver.
However, this old tactic is not working anymore. The methodologies of feminists have been exposed in recent years and men are wise to the game. Female shaming techniques hold no power and men are shrugging off the attacks. Today, men are more likely to whip out their "print" and slap a feminist in the face with it than actually care about her opinion.
Tyler Durden
Sun, 04/19/2026 - 15:45 Close