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RTX Corp., formerly Raytheon Technologies, raised its full-year outlook for a third straight quarter as the Western rearmament supercycle gathers momentum.

Wall Street welcomed the earnings update: RBC Capital Markets called the results "strong," Goldman Sachs highlighted a "solid quarter" with higher guidance, and UBS pointed to "accelerating defense growth."

The Tomahawk cruise missile maker reported third-quarter earnings earlier and now expects 2026 adjusted earnings of $7.65 to $7.75 a share, up from a previous ceiling of $7.25. Even the lower end of the revised range exceeds the average analyst estimate tracked by Bloomberg. RTX also boosted its sales and free cash flow forecasts.

All three of RTX's main operating units reported double-digit organic sales growth in the quarter. Adjusted earnings topped $2.26 a share, beating expectations, though the figure included a 25-cent gain from recovering tariffs the Supreme Court struck down earlier this year.

Goldman Sachs aerospace and defense analyst Noah Poponak shared his initial view with clients: "Solid quarter and guidance raised."

More color from Poponak: 

Bottom Line: RTX 3Q26 results came in ahead of consensus across key metrics, with revenue and segment EBIT ahead in all three segments. Collins EBIT includes +$250mn of IEEPA recovery, and Pratt EBIT includes +$160mn of IEEPA recovery. The company raised its 2026 guidance across the board, with organic revenue growth now at 10%-11% (vs. 8%-9% prior) and midpoint increases of 2% for revenue, 7% for EPS, and 6% for free cash flow, partially operational and partially IEEPA.

Details: 3Q26 adjusted EPS is $2.26 vs. FactSet consensus of $1.78. Revenue of $24.97bn is 4% ahead of consensus. In the segments: Pratt revenue is up 10% yoy organically, with OE down 5%, aftermarket up 21%, and military up 2%. Collins revenue is up 12% yoy organically, with OE up 23%, aftermarket up 9%, and defense up 7%. Raytheon revenue is up 14% organically. Adjusted segment operating margin of 15.2% is above consensus at 13.2%; with all three business segments ahead, although there are IEEPA recovery benefits and large one-time items. 3Q26 free cash flow of $2,119mn is above consensus at $1,730mn, and includes ~$300mn of IEEPA recovery.

RTX provided updated 2026 guidance, which includes adjusted sales of $97.0 - $97.5bn ($95.0 - $96.0bn prior; consensus at $96.28bn), organic sales growth of 10-11% (8-9% prior), adjusted EPS of $7.65 - $7.75 ($7.10 - $7.25 prior; consensus at $7.26), and FCF of $9.0 - $9.2bn ($8.50 - $8.75 prior; consensus at $8.7bn).

Separately, UBS aerospace and defense analyst Gavin Parsons outlined that the earnings results indicate the defense rearmament supercycle is "accelerating." 

Parsons explained:

Strong headline results, still a broad-based beat adjusting for one-timers like IEEPA reversal. Revenue grew 12% organically, and RTX raised guidance for sales, EPS and FCF. Backlog reached a record $340bn following more than $81bn of awards, highlighted by $37bn of multi-year Tomahawk and AMRAAM awards. Commercial aerospace demand also remains strong, no signs of aftermarket slowdown with Collins/Pratt aftermarket +9/21%. 8% segment EBIT beat adjusting out $250mn of Collins IEEPA recovery, $160mn at Pratt, and a $85mn one-time benefit at Raytheon (margins 18.3% at Collins, 8.8% at Pratt, and 13.1% at Raytheon) - beat in all 3 segments. We expect investors to focus on the sustainability of aftermarket demand, the multi-year defense topline, Pratt OE mix headwinds, Raytheon margin drivers, and the bridge to free cash flow and guidance.

• Notable Pros: Organic revenue +12% (Collins +12%, Pratt +10%, Raytheon +14%), adj. Segment EBIT +21% with 110bps of margin expansion, backlog at a record $340bn (+36% yoy), commercial aftermarket remained strong (Collins +9%, Pratt +21%), and guidance was raised across sales, EPS, and FCF.

• Notable Cons: Pratt commercial OE declined 5% due to unfavorable large engine mix, $363mn customer bankruptcy charge at Pratt.

How did the results compare vs consensus expectations?

Beat on Adj. sales, Adj. EBIT, and Adj. EPS.

2026 Guidance

• Adjusted sales: $97.0bn-$97.5bn ($95.0-$96.0bn prior) vs. cons at $96.3bn

• Organic sales growth: 10-11% (8-9% prior)

• Adjusted EPS: $7.65-$7.75 ($7.10-$7.25 prior) vs. cons at $7.26

• FCF: $9.0bn-$9.2bn ($8.50bn-$8.75bn prior) vs. cons at $8.7bn

RTX shares are up 1.4% in early US cash trading, though the stock remains within the $180 to $220 trading range that has held throughout the year.

The broader defense sector has come under pressure as investors weigh the implications of rising odds of Democratic control of the Senate.

Will defense stocks rally if a Democratic Party midterm shock is not as bad as previously thought? 

Today after the close, SpaceX (SPCX) reports its second quarter as a public company, a day ahead of Tesla and (as Deutsche Bank puts it) "surprisingly early." The first one did not go well: the stock slid despite a big revenue beat and closed down 14% the next day, wiping out some $225 billion in market value.

This time, the sellside is mostly looking past the quarter and straight at 2027. Nobody more so than Deutsche Bank's Edison Yu, who in his preview note "Compute-driven state of mind" (available to pro subs) lifts his 2027 forecasts to $125 billion in revenue and $84 billion in EBITDA, materially above consensus of $108 billion and $65 billion. The catch, which Yu flags himself, is that those numbers are "underpinned by > $200bn in capex."

And that's where the other half of the SpaceX story comes in. While equity analysts debate how high 2027 can go, the company's 6.65% notes due 2056 just slumped to a lifetime low of 83.3 cents on the dollar, down from 98.83 at issue in June, and SpaceX's five-year CDS spreads blew out to a record high earlier this month.

In other words, the stock market is pricing the upside, and the bond market is pricing the bill.

The Quarter: In Line, With "Potential Upside In Profitability"

Start with the near term. Deutsche expects an in-line print, "with potential upside in profitability." Yu models Q3 revenue of $12.6 billion (+127% YoY), a gross margin of around 59% and EBITDA of over $6.6 billion. The engine is AI, which "is benefiting from a full-quarter contribution from cloud hosting, boosting revenue by almost 3x sequentially to ~$6bn." AI solutions & infrastructure alone is expected to jump from $2.2 billion in Q2 to $6.0 billion, which means the AI segment would account for just over half of total revenue at the business formerly known as a rocket company.

Elsewhere, consumer broadband subscribers should end the quarter at 13.5 million (vs. 12.0 million in Q2), while ARPU slides another $2 to $64, giving connectivity revenue of nearly $5 billion, up 60% YoY. The Space segment, the one in the company's name, is expected to shrink 22% YoY on twelve external Falcon 9 launches. As for the cash, Yu forecasts $19 billion in capex "mainly directed at AI compute," taking capacity to 1.8GW, and leading to free cash flow burn of $14 billion, in one quarter.

Here is the full breakdown vs. consensus:

Note that Deutsche is slightly below the Street on Q3 revenue ($12.63 billion vs. $12.89 billion) and broadband subs (13.5 million vs. 14.2 million), but slightly above on EBITDA margin (52.6% vs. 51.4%). Options are pricing a move of about 7.8% in either direction, which is a bit more than half of what the stock actually did after Q2.

How High Can 2027 Go?

This is where Deutsche gets interesting. In Yu's view, "the largest swing factor in respect to forecasts will be compute deployment." Management is targeting more than 2GW exiting 4Q26, which DB thinks is "doable," and then 5-10GW exiting 2027. DB models toward the low end, at about 6GW, and lays out a line of sight into 5-7GW of power over the next couple of years: 1.9GW of Doosan turbines, 1.2GW from the Southaven plant's 41 turbines, 0.7-1.1GW from the APR acquisition, 900MW or more leased through the Stateline JV, plus the TVA grid supply and backup turbines at Colossus 1 and up to another gigawatt "from other sources." (We assume SpaceX will need all of it to keep the Nvidia chips it is borrowing to buy switched on.)

Put it together, and the bank's math says the neocloud business alone can generate $70-90 billion of revenue in 2027, "depending on timing and pricing dynamics." For context, SpaceX's entire 2025 revenue was $18.7 billion. And the result is a 2027 forecast that is now 16% above consensus on revenue and 29% above on EBITDA:

Deutsche isn't even the most aggressive on compute. Goldman's Eric Sheridan, in his own SpaceX Q3'26 preview earlier this month (also available to pro subs), forecasts SpaceX scaling to ~2.4GW of AI compute by year-end, ~7.0GW by the end of 2027 and ~10.6GW by the end of 2028:

Goldman models $85.5 billion in 2027 AI solutions & infrastructure revenue, of which $45.5 billion comes from hosting deals on just ~1GW of contracted capacity. As we noted when we dug through Goldman's neocloud rate card, most of those hosting deals are "90-day cancellable on both sides." Which is probably worth keeping in mind when somebody extrapolates them to 2029.

Speaking of extrapolating, Musk himself already raised the bar on the Q2 call:

Musk reiterates expectation of $100 billion ARR by the end of this year (10x the June ARR), and now sees SpaceX seeing $1 trillion in revenue by 2030, and "non zero chance" of getting there in 2029. Some context: the average analyst estimate (30 of 39 sellside analysts are Buy on SPCX) for 2029 revenue is $208 billion

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 4, 2026

Evercore's Kutgun Maral, for one, expects an annual run rate of $104 billion by year-end and 2.3GW of compute (vs. the Street's 2.2GW), and raised his target to $270. Deutsche keeps its Buy and $235 target, vs. Friday's close of $146.03.

The $200 Billion Footnote

Here is the full set of DB's estimate changes. Look at the bottom line of each block:

Deutsche raised 2027 revenue by $10 billion, and 2027 capex by $22 billion, to $207 billion, and 2028 capex by $40 billion to $230 billion. And while 2028 revenue barely moves ($200 billion vs. $198 billion), 2028 EPS actually dips, because, as Yu admits, "there is concern by investors that pricing could normalize in 2028-29." The bank now assumes $/GW pricing "declines by 25% to about $30bn in 2028." In other words, the compute gets more expensive to build exactly when it gets cheaper to rent.

Line up DB's own EBITDA against DB's own capex, and the problem becomes obvious:

Napkin math: under Deutsche's bullish model, capex exceeds EBITDA by about $47 billion this year, $124 billion in 2027 and $81 billion in 2028, or roughly $250 billion across three years. SpaceX ended Q2 with $100 billion in cash and marketable securities, and DB expects about $13.5 billion of that to have been burned in Q3 alone. Which means the 2027 gap by itself is bigger than the cash pile... and that gap has to be filled by someone.

That someone, of course, is the bond market.

Meanwhile, In Credit...

Regular readers will recall that SpaceX slammed head first into the bond market less than two weeks after its record $86 billion IPO, selling $25 billion of investment grade bonds which were, depending on who you asked, "4x oversubscribed." Bondholders have been underwater pretty much since the break, and on Monday the 6.65% notes of 2056 hit a new all-time low of 83.345:

At that price, the 30-year paper of a BBB-rated company that is supposedly about to post $84 billion in EBITDA yields roughly 8.1%, which is the kind of number one usually associates with the junk bond market (as we put it back in August, "SPCX bonds skeptical about the $1 trillion in revenue"). The 5.875% notes due 2036 tell the same story: per Trace, their spread was 193bps earlier this month, vs. 140bps when they were sold in June.

What changed? The record chip-collateralized loan. On Oct 6, the FT reported that SpaceX wants to raise another $40 billion, about $10 billion in bank loans and $30 billion of IG debt, in a deal led by Apollo, to pay for Nvidia chips. Add the $25 billion from June, and SpaceX will have borrowed (or tried to borrow) $65 billion since June, on top of the $38.4 billion in debt it reported as of June 30. The next day, five-year CDS jumped as much as 16.7bps to about 197.6bps, the highest since the swaps started actively trading in June (when they were around 110bps):

Of course, we covered it at the time:

Barclays' credit analysts, led by Andrew Keches, argued that an SPV structure might be good for SpaceX in the long run by reducing the amount of debt at the parent company, but warned that in the near term the coming supply could put pressure on the company's existing bonds.

Well, they were right about the near term: less than two weeks later, the bonds are 1.4 points lower than where they were on Oct 7, and DB's revised capex forecast suggests $40 billion won't be the last ask. Or as Coherence Credit's Sal Naro told Bloomberg, speaking of AI debt in general: "This is unprecedented debt supply with no real ending in sight."

None of this will surprise those who have been reading us since last October, when we first warned that AI had quietly become a debt bubble too, and that the debt would sooner or later have to compete with everyone else (including Uncle Sam) for the same duration buyers. SpaceX, which Musk said in December had been cash-flow positive for years and didn't really need anyone's money, is now one of the biggest borrowers in that line.

What To Watch Today After The Close

Deutsche's own list of "other areas of focus" is a good checklist:

• AI: neocloud pricing and new contracts, the Cursor contribution, Grok Bot adoption, and the data center capex outlook (read: any hint that 2027 capex starts with a "2").
• Launch: timing of the next few launches after Flight 14; Flight 15 looks set for mid-/late November, though DB doesn't expect a second-stage catch.
• Connectivity: after the $8 billion Grain spectrum deal, "additional color on management's next move(s) in the US (build vs. buy)," which is something the wireless carriers will be listening to closely.
• Tesla merger: DB sees the timing as "mainly a function of valuation differentials and politics (may want to avoid a potential Democrat-led administration taking over post Trump)."

To that we'd add one more: anything on financing. Specifically, whether the $40 billion Apollo deal is done, how much of it sits in an SPV, and how much more is coming. And, after today's pledge of a SpaceX share to "every kid in America," maybe also how many shares that is.

Who Blinks First?

Deutsche's long-term thesis (as well as everyone else's for that matter) is straightforward: "the endgame is to build and possess the greatest amount of compute at the lowest cost on the ground and eventually in orbit," which should eventually let SpaceX "deliver leading intelligence/inference capabilities which we think investors generally are still quite skeptical about." Yu also concedes that "the stock has increasingly traded more in line with the AI cohort as opposed to Space." Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas, who has become the bank's resident in house SpaceX cheerleader and now covers only this company, thinks SpaceX "looks unusually cheap" on the forward (duh), recently described the skepticism even more vividly: asked who owned the stock, out of 40 clients "not a single hand went up." 

So who is right: the equity analysts who see 2027 EBITDA nearly 30% above consensus, or the bondholders who are demanding 8% for 30 years? Probably both, in their own way.

The upside case is real, but every dollar of DB's 2027 EBITDA comes with roughly two and a half dollars of capex attached, and that capex will be funded by the same creditors who just marked the 2056s to 83. If today's call brings a higher capex number and no clarity on financing, we suspect the bond market will be the one setting the tone, just as it did after Q2. Then again, Musk has never been shy about telling bears that he "tried to warn them," and as of Friday's close the stock was still 8% above its $135 IPO price. The bonds, meanwhile, are almost 16% below theirs.

Much more in the full Deutsche Bank "Compute-driven state of mind" note and Goldman's "SpaceX Q3'26 preview," both available to pro subs.

An 11 p.m. curfew took effect in parts of the Paris metro area on Monday, along with curfew restrictions in other cities, after the Macron government embarrassingly struggled for weeks to contain far-left social unrest and chaos that had spiraled out of control. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu said the measures helped restore calm overnight and will put new curfews in place where needed today. 

France Slaps 8PM Curfews On Cities As Interior Minister Admits Police 'Lost Control'; Macron Flees To The Gulf https://t.co/iWAcsHFtiy

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 19, 2026

Lefty corporate media continue to push the narrative that looting luxury stores, burning government buildings, torching vehicles, and clashing with police were merely the actions of a bunch of angry kids about the deteriorating state-funded education system. That narrative has largely gone bust as globalists lose control of their role as gatekeepers of "information."

There it fucking is. The BBC just called the France riots “mostly peaceful” https://t.co/XwhI4IGPZx

— Kosher (@koshercockney) October 19, 2026

In fact, Fox News' Asra Nomani published a new investigation into the far-left riot ecosystem behind the French turmoil, in which her team identified:

54 organizations and movements in France's October student protests and their wider network of supporters and international amplifiers, including communist parties, revolutionary socialist groups, labor unions, environmental activists, Muslim student advocates, Palestinian-solidarity organizations and international media outlets.

Of the 54 organizations identified in the October protest ecosystem, 16, or only about one in three, are student or youth organizations, including communist youth groups and a Muslim student association. The remaining 38 include adult-led communist groups, labor unions, political parties, revolutionary-left organizations, advocacy groups and international propaganda outlets.

In other words, some of the riot participants were part of highly coordinated far-left groups that seek to destroy the West and capitalism. The blowback has already begun as law-abiding citizens saw their cities and towns burn and mom-and-pop stores looted by radical revolutionaries. This has only provided tailwinds for National Rally leader Marine Le Pen, who is gaining in the polls ahead of next April's presidential election. Her Polymarket odds of winning the presidential election currently stand at 46%. 

Morningstar DBRS insurance analyst Marcos Alvarez said riot-related damage could reach 1.2 billion euros. Assuming violence does not escalate from here, losses should be manageable through major insurers' earnings without threatening their capital positions, he said.

"Assuming no further violence, we expect the latest French riots to be a manageable earnings event rather than a capital event for the country's major insurers," Alvarez wrote in a note.

French government bonds rallied, outperforming euro-area peers today. The 10-year yield fell two basis points, narrowing the premium over German debt to 147 basis points, though the spread remained near its widest levels in weeks.

The extra yield investors demand to hold French debt comes as the Macron government faces mounting crises, including a budget deficit, a failing welfare system, unfettered mass migration, social unrest, and overall economic gloom.

A second or third-generation migrant from Africa explains why Chinese businesses are targeted by looters: “The Chinese living in France have become too wealthy. It's unfair” https://t.co/Mzew480mLl

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) October 20, 2026

France's problem, with debt that exceeds its gross domestic product, is that in a high-rate environment, with a welfare system imploding and services degrading, throwing more money at voters in the form of handouts to keep them calm simply doesn't work. That's because bond investors will penalize the country with higher and higher rates - and good luck funding the progressive experiment. 

France has FREE health care, paid parental leave, paid family leave, FREE child care, FREE preschool, 5 weeks paid vacation, a 35 hour work week, generous unemployment and housing benefits, and heavily subsidized higher education. Everything the left says they want AND THEY'RE STILL PROTESTING AND BURNING SHIT DOWN.

— Rob Schneider ???? (@RobSchneider) October 19, 2026

And that's the point at which France has entered the endgame. One of the driving reasons behind the riots is that the socialist agenda of promising more and more handouts simply runs into a brick wall - and really that's why the left is rioting, because their days of free money and not working could come to an abrupt end under a Le Pen government if she wins next year. 

The unrest has already spread well beyond France and is absolutely embarrassing for lefty Brussels elites who have allowed the far left to fester and radicalize kids into useful purple-haired idiots. 

Meanwhile, in the US, the Trump administration's NGO task force in the Treasury Department, along with coordination with other agencies to ensure that far-left revolutionaries don't repeat the Marxist BLM riots of 2020, has likely been one of the main reasons there were no riots this past summer. Think about it: That's probably because the big family foundations were put on notice that their 501(c) tax-exempt status could be stripped. 

But House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., warned on Monday that France's "descending into chaos" at the hands of socialist lefty radicals is a wake-up call for America: "What we are witnessing is a chilling warning for all Americans of what happens if the radical Marxist insurgent left gets their way."

Apple shares are down about 1% in premarket trading in New York on renewed concerns about iPhone demand.

Loop Capital technology analyst Ananda Baruah downgraded Apple from "Buy" to "Hold," citing slumping expectations that the company will recover lost iPhone shipments next year and warning that skyrocketing memory chip costs could further squeeze profit margins.

Baruah lowered his 12-month price target to $330 from $370, nearly in line with Bloomberg-tracked analyst forecasts of around $334. The new target implies roughly 4% downside from the $343 share price cited in the note.

Baruah explained the reason for the rating downgrade:

We're downgrading AAPL to Hold from Buy and lowering our PT to $330 from $370 on new iPhone data from Loop Capital Supply Chain Analyst John Donovan (Latest AAPL ASP Tracker & Build Analysis – Reported Cuts Not True – Yet?) as our "normalized" EPS is reduced to $11.00 from $12.00 (and our new PT using an AAPL median P/E of 30x is $330.) 

The gist is that when AAPL previously reduced its Sep Q & Dec Q iPhone unit ships by 10% we believed they would be in a position to make up many (if not most) of these units through CY2027 as the reductions were supply related (memory & processors) & not demand related. 

This no longer appears to be the case. Further, while not the core aspect of our call today we acknowledge then potential for GM risk as memory costs continue to increase.

The revised forecasts also reflect much lower expectations for iPhone selling prices. For next year, the analyst slashed his average selling price estimate to $1,096 from $1,235 and reduced projected iPhone revenue to about $285 billion from $315 billion.

He expects total 2027 revenue to reach $539 billion, down from $569 billion, and earnings of $9.76 a share, compared with his previous $10.11 estimate.

For the December quarter, Baruah forecasts 79 million iPhone shipments, below the consensus estimate of 85 million. He forecasts iPhone revenue of about $88.7 billion for the quarter, below Wall Street expectations of roughly $93 billion.

Baruah's note, published on Monday, builds on soft iPhone demand cited by analysts at Jefferies and other desks. There was good news last week on Duo demand, as the flurry of preorders outstripped launch inventory, pushing some orders out until January 25. But premium handsets priced at $1,000-plus and $2,000-plus are still too expensive for mass adoption. Apple's Tim Cook learned that the hard way with the $3,000-plus, goofy-looking Vision Pro. 

Update(1117ET): The somewhat expected quick rejection is coming from the Iranians via newswires:

IRAN-US TALKS CONTINUE, REPORTS DEAL IS CLOSE ARE WRONG

And Israeli media: "At least once, the US Trump administration was 'very close' to approving an attack on Iran" i24 Stein's reports citing sources. Oil bouncing back on the Iranian rejection headlines, and despite...

RUBIO: OIL GOING THROUGH HORMUZ NEARLY EQUAL TO BEFORE WAR

*  *  *

Update(1035ET): This past weekend Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said that his country's offer to the United States to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days is still on the table. 

By Tuesday morning, we have a return of another round of 'deal imminent'-style headlines, which has gained more visibility over the last couple hours, resulting in oil prices tumbling:

• Mediation efforts said that "Qatar and Pakistan presented a 'compromise proposal' that meets the demands of both the American and Iranian sides", Al Araby Al Jadeed reports citing sources.
• Another bout of pressure in the crude complex as the earlier reports via Al Araby Al Jadeed related to a "compromise proposal" gets wider airing; a move which is lifting the ES

*  *  *

On Tuesday the UK Maritime Operations Centre has reported a new incident around 121 nautical miles east of the Omani coast.

The UKMTO announced the vessel was "subject to interaction as part of ongoing military activity in the region" at around 10am GMT. Regional reports say two tankers are on fire. But Tehran is boasting of a fresh sea mine attack, amid daily ramped-up assaults on international shipping as it tries to hold on to leverage over the United States and global oil transit.

The Iranian side filled in more information, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) describing that "Two violating oil tankers were set ablaze and halted due to the explosion of mines planted by the brave sailors of the IRGC Navy at an illegal crossing point in the southern part of the Strait of Hormuz," according to a statement published on their official Sepah News website.

Those conditions were first presented in mid-September. "Our situation is clear and based on ?the seven-days proposal presented to the US. They shared comments which we are reviewing, but our proposal is still on the table and if there is any honesty on the US part, which there isn't, the way to reopening the Strait of Hormuz is obvious," Araqchi stated Sunday.

For anyone who has lost track, these are the seven conditions Tehran presented in September:

1. lift the maritime blockade;
2. restore Iran's frozen assets;
3. lift sanctions on Iranian oil exports;
4. halt all US actions "under the pretext of threats and military operations";
5. end the war on Iran and its regional allies;
6. withdraw US forces from areas around Iran's borders;
7. pay compensation for war damage and commit not to interfere with Iran's nuclear and missile capabilities.

According to more of the latest from Bloomberg Tuesday morning:

Brent oil fluctuated near a five-month high as traders weighed the risk of further Iranian attacks in the Strait of Hormuz against robust crude flows from the Persian Gulf. The global benchmark was just below US$110 a barrel, near the highest since May, while the most-active West Texas Intermediate contract was close to US$99.

Iran has “no choice” but to assert control over Hormuz to safeguard the country’s security, First Vice-President Mohammad Reza Aref said on Oct 19, according to a report from state-run news agency IRNA.

Meanwhile, other Tehran officials have continued to warn that if active fighting resumes, Iran's military still has a lot of cards to play.

At the start of this week IRGC spokesperson Hossein Mohebi has threatened to target undersea communication cables in the Strait of Hormuz. He warned that "all of the world's internet and commercial data depend on them," according to Al Jazeera.

?????????? A tanker had an encounter with military forces off the coast of Oman yesterday... The vessel was subject to interaction as part of ongoing military activity in the region. Authorities are aware and investigations continue. Ships have been advised to stay alert to the evolving security situation, as always. Source: UKMTO / Writer: Samuel

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) October 20, 2026

He added: “We just want them to know that new targets and new weapons will be unveiled.”

Mohebi has also claimed that the US lacks the "technical and military”" capability to launch a new operation, which President Trump has lately threatened, likely to resume after the November midterm elections. So far the US military has remained surprisingly quiet amid daily Iranian assaults on international shipping.

More Latest Developments

via Newsquawk...

• US President Trump criticised Europe for failing to support the US over Iran and suggested Washington could reconsider its support for Europe.
• Iran's IRGC said it intercepted and destroyed a US MQ-9 drone over the Strait of Hormuz using its new advanced air defence system.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Baghaei said they have held several contacts and consultations and that if there is even the slightest chance that it may be able to prevent the escalation of tensions through diplomacy, they must definitely go this route. On talks with Russia, Baghaei said there was no discussion about nuclear negotiations with the US, and that Iran are not negotiating with the US in this regard.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry said the US' response to the proposal from Iran was incomplete and insufficient.
• Iranian President Pezeshkian said US bases in the region provide no benefits and only fuel insecurity, Press TV reported.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said Iran-Russia cooperation is closer than ever, with talks covering regional developments and expanding economic and nuclear cooperation, IRNA reported.
• Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson said "We are working with Washington and Tehran in partnership with other mediating countries to end the war in the region."
• Pakistan Army Chief Munir has arrived in Tehran to meet with senior officials of Iran.
• Russian Foreign Minister met Iran's President and Supreme National Security Council Secretary in Tehran, following earlier talks with his Iranian counterpart, Iran Nuances reported.
• An explosion was reportedly heard in Iran's southern city of Bandar Abbas, Sabereen News reported.
• Yemeni forces reportedly targeted Saudi Arabia's Dammam airport with missiles and drones, temporarily suspending operations, Tasnim reported, citing Al-Masirah.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu said there are indications that Iran and its proxies want to challenge Israel before the elections.
• US War Secretary Hegseth met Israeli PM Netanyahu during an unannounced visit to Israel on Monday, Axios reported.
• US President Trump's envoys Kushner and Witkoff plan to travel to Norway this week for Ukraine talks and Ukraine President Zelensky is expected to join talks.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said he talked with US Secretary of State Rubio on the topics of ballistic interceptors and Starlinks. He later said that Ukraine supports a mutual energy ceasefire.
• Ukraine's DTEK said a Russian attack struck three of its energy facilities in the Odessa region.
• The Trump administration has delayed approving transfers of Patriot interceptor missiles to Ukraine from partner countries, Washington Post reported.