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Wed, 02 Sep 2026 13:45:00 +0000 The 'Great Satan' Strikes, The 'Snake' Bites Back: Damage Assessed From Iran Flare-Up After Deadly US Attacks
The 'Great Satan' Strikes, The 'Snake' Bites Back: Damage Assessed From Iran Flare-Up After Deadly US Attacks
Iran is assessing the aftermath in terms of casualties and damage in the wake of the Read more.....
The 'Great Satan' Strikes, The 'Snake' Bites Back: Damage Assessed From Iran Flare-Up After Deadly US Attacks
Iran is assessing the aftermath in terms of casualties and damage in the wake of the new flare-up in fighting , after the US launched a series of deadly attacks on the Islamic Republic Tuesday, focused in the south and Hormuz Strait area, and Tehran in expected fashion retaliated with drone-and-missile strikes against Gulf nations and Jordan.
Iran says the total death toll from the new American assault has risen to 18 , especially following a an alleged mass casualty strike at a wedding celebration . It reportedly happened in happened Hormozgan province Tuesday night, with authorities having announced five were killed, including a child, and with at least 50 more wounded.
Aftermath of alleged American strike on a wedding in Sirik, Iran.
Regional media reports , "Six-year-old Amir Mohammad Karimi was among those killed, it said, adding that those wounded had been transferred to hospital in the nearby city of Minab."
"Earlier, Reza Shahidiyan, the governor of Sirik county, told the IRIB state broadcaster that 63 people had been injured, including 50 women and children ," the report continues. "Other Iranian reporting has cited as many as 68 wounded."
Tehran officials, as well as Iran's Red Crescent Society, have made formal requests to global bodies, including the International Criminal Court, to take legal action for the civilian deaths and alleged war crimes.
BBC has cited the Pentagon as saying it is aware of reports about the strike but that US forces never targeted civilians.
As for known targets from the Iranian response, which saw an initial ballistic missile wave target US bases in Jordan, some of the following has emerged:
Camp Titin & Prince Hassan Base (Jordan) : ballistic strikes.
Erbil Bases (Iraq) : Combined missile/drone.
Ali Al Salem (Kuwait) : HQs & drone ramps hit.
US Naval Base (Bahrain) : Casualties & destroyed aircraft reported.
Videos which purport to show some of these strikes, particularly against NSA Bahrain (certainly not for the first time, as it's already suffered significant damage ), have been widely circulating but remain unconfirmed.
In the Strait of Hormuz, the Revolutionary Guard has announced that two foreign ?oil ?tankers hit sea mines and are on fire after attempting to transit the waterway earlier in the day Wednesday. The IRGC said it occurred while the vessels used an "illegal route" through the the strait, state TV reports . Simultaneously Al Jazeera issued the following:
Bahri, a shipping company in Saudi Arabia, says two Filipino crew members were killed on board the SIDR vessel in an “incident” while transiting Hormuz.
As for the broader US naval blockade on Iranian ports, Reuters outlines that "Iran has gone about seven weeks without shipping meaningful crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz , as a U.S. naval blockade succeeds where years of sanctions failed by cutting off one of Tehran's main sources of foreign-currency earnings."
The commentary adds: "Unlike ?previous sanctions campaigns, when Iranian crude continued reaching buyers despite restrictions, the current blockade has stopped fresh crude cargoes reaching China, Tehran's only major remaining oil customer, increasing pressure on government finances and foreign-currency reserves."
The world is now witnessing the seventh month of a "3-4 week" war , and the White House is still pushing this 'the Iranian people will rise up' narrative. According to a late Tuesday Trump Truth Social Post:
I’m not trying to force Iran to the bargaining table, as ABC Fake News reported. I couldn’t care less if they sign a worthless, to them, agreement. I like our position now much better, with almost total control of the Hormuz Strait, and their economy totally collapsing. They are just playing out the inevitable. When are the Iranian people going to rise up and fight? President DJT
In the opening days of Operation Epic Fury it must be recalled that Trump claimed "help is on the way!" - and yet now amid a stalemated situation US bases across the region have been degraded and destroyed.
Where is Secretary of State Marco Rubio these days?...
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is meanwhile touting that the US is 'cutting off the head of the snake.'
"When I was a kid in South Carolina, we lived near a swamp, and as a result, we’d end up with a lot of poison snakes in our yard. And you would take either a rake or a machete, or a paddle from a boat, and you cut the head off," he said Tuesday.
"But the snake, the tail kept wiggling, and you had to bury the head of the snake because the head of the snake was still poisonous, and there was venom there. So we are burying the head of the Iranian snake," he continued. "The snake doesn't know it’s dead yet , but it will stop wiggling when the sun goes down." But as yet, there are no signs of a rapidly collapsing state system, and there are no masses rising up in the streets.
Iranian leadership is vowing not to back down, but to continue inflicting pain on Washington, on the military, economic, and political fronts.
Parliament speaker goes off...
Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf on Wednesday has declared Iran does not reject negotiations but views them as a tool in its broader confrontation with the US and Israel , Tasnim reports. He is reiterating US must fulfill its commitments before Iran "takes steps" to reopen Hormuz - which suggests Tehran has not altogether abandoned the possibility of getting back to the negotiating table.
More Latest Developments
US President Trump posted "I’m not trying to force Iran to the bargaining table, as ABC Fake News reported. I couldn’t care less if they sign a worthless, to them, agreement. I like our position now much better, with almost total control of the Hormuz Strait, and their economy totally collapsing. They are just playing out the inevitable."
US Treasury Secretary Bessent said Iran doesn't control the Strait of Hormuz and the US took out Iranian radar along the strait, as well as got 17mln bbls of crude out on Monday. Bessent said that China pays Iran in yuan and when yuan cannot be converted to dollars, Iran starves, while he said they are in an acceleration phase of Iran bankruptcy and maybe Iran will lash out more kinetically.
US Central Command said forces successfully completed a wave of strikes against Iranian military targets on September 1st in which they struck targets including air defence sites, radar systems, maritime assets and facilities, mine laying capabilities, and communications sites.
US strikes on Iranian targets on Tuesday included two Iranian government tankers under a new 'tanker for tanker' approved by US President Trump to deter Iranian attacks on tankers, according to Axios. Furthermore, US officials said around 100 targets were attacked during the strikes, while it was separately reported that the US assessed Iran was planning to expand attacks against commercial ships.
Pakistan's foreign ministry said Army Chief Munir visited Tehran and generated substantial momentum on the Strait of Hormuz issue and that Pakistan is positive about all parties returning to the negotiating table.
Iran's IRGC said two tankers were blown up and stopped a few hours ago after striking mines in the Strait of Hormuz. IRGC also warns of additional penalties for shipping companies.
IRGC said it targeted US bases in Erbil, Iraq with missiles and drones. Iran's army also launched drone attacks on the US base in Bahrain, while Kuwaiti air defences confronted attacks by hostile drones. Additionally, the IRGC said it attacked a US Marines base in Jordan known as Camp Tibtain with missiles and claimed that a large number of US forces were killed in the attack. However, US and Jordan officials reported no casualties.
Russia has been secretly helping Iran develop advanced supersonic cruise missiles, according to FT.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/02/2026 - 09:45 Close
Wed, 02 Sep 2026 13:35:22 +0000 Yen Suddenly Spikes Sparking Intervention Chatter
Yen Suddenly Spikes Sparking Intervention Chatter
Having broken hand held above 160/USD, this morning (as the G20 meeting comes to an end), the yen is suddenly spiking higher, prompting desk chatter of another intervention...
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Read more.....
Yen Suddenly Spikes Sparking Intervention Chatter
Having broken hand held above 160/USD, this morning (as the G20 meeting comes to an end), the yen is suddenly spiking higher, prompting desk chatter of another intervention...
There was no obvious news or macro catalyst for such a move, and for now, there is no follow through but it appears 160 is the new line in the sand for the Bessent/BoJ plunged protectors.
Some traders suggested it was a simple stop-hunt (which could still be instigated by 'authorities').
Developing...
Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/02/2026 - 09:35 Close
Wed, 02 Sep 2026 13:20:00 +0000 Tokenmaxxing Turns To Layoffmaxxing: Uber Slashes Thousands In "Significant" Overhaul
Tokenmaxxing Turns To Layoffmaxxing: Uber Slashes Thousands In "Significant" Overhaul
Tokenmaxxing Turns To Layoffmaxxing: Uber Slashes Thousands In "Significant" Overhaul
Bloomberg obtained a letter from Uber Technologies CEO Dara Khosrowshahi to employees announcing "significant organizational changes " across the company aimed at reallocating spending toward delivery, artificial intelligence, and an increasingly expensive robotaxi buildout.
"Today, we're making several significant organizational changes across Uber. We are removing layers, simplifying team structures, refining our global location strategy, and focusing our people and investments against the biggest opportunities ahead of us, " Khosrowshahi wrote in the letter.
The latest Bloomberg data show that, as of 2Q26, Uber employed 36,600 people across its global workforce, meaning a 10% cut equates to about 3,600 workers.
Uber will eliminate nearly half of its teams with only one or two members and reduce by 20% the number of employees positioned seven or more organizational layers below the CEO. In other words, the restructuring is impacting white-collar workers that AI agents can likely replace.
The company is also combining engineering and science teams while consolidating its separate restaurant, retail, and white-label delivery operations.
There was a report earlier this year that Uber had blown through its AI budget within the first few months of the year after encouraging employees to use frontier models as aggressively as possible.
We summed that up perfectly...
Savings from the restructuring will be reinvested in Uber's core ride-sharing and delivery platforms, as well as the company's effort to build what Khosrowshahi called an "autonomous future ."
Uber has pledged to invest more than $10 billion in robotaxi partnerships over the coming years as it seeks to become the dominant top player for summoning autonomous vehicles. The company has already invested in Avride, Lucid, Nuro and Rivian while reducing stakes elsewhere to free up capital.
Khosrowshahi's companywide email in full: Team,
Team,
Today, we're making a number of significant organizational changes across Uber. We are removing layers, simplifying team structures, refining our global location strategy, and focusing our people and investments against the biggest opportunities ahead of us. As a result, we will be reducing the size of our team by about 10%. Everyone whose role has been affected has already been notified, except in countries where we will follow the required local process.
This wasn't a decision we made lightly, because it will have a real impact on our teammates and friends who have worked hard for Uber. It's important to say that these changes are about how we're organized and what we're prioritizing, not about anyone's contributions to Uber, which we always value.
I'm sure you're asking, 'Why, and why now?'—particularly since our business is performing so well. Over the last 5+ years, Uber has grown by orders of magnitude, with our top line nearly tripling. We've built new products, expanded into new businesses, reached more consumers and supported more earners, and become a much larger and stronger company. But that growth has also brought complexity: more layers, more coordination, more fragmented ownership, and in some cases structures that made sense when businesses were smaller but no longer serve us well at our current scale.
Our opportunity from here is enormous: we have the chance to bring Uber to hundreds of millions more people; to invest even more in drivers, couriers and merchants; and to innovate across our core businesses and build the autonomous future.
To do those things, we need to make deliberate choices about where we put our people, our time, and our capital.
The changes we're making today are designed to do two things: make Uber simpler and faster, and create more capacity to invest in our future. A leaner organization will mean clearer ownership, faster decisions, and more time spent building rather than coordinating. It will also generate savings that we intend to reinvest in growth, innovation, and the capabilities that will matter most over the coming years.
It's our job as leaders to make these difficult calls, and to give you transparency into our thinking and our decision-making process. Here's what we are doing and why:
Organizational health: In Pulse surveys and conversations with many of you, we've heard that too much work requires coordination across teams, debates take too long, and decision-making rights are unclear. I'm sure many of you have felt that you spend too much time "aligning" rather than building, shipping, or serving customers. To improve this, we have reduced roles primarily focused on coordination, and have clarified the remit of the coordination roles that remain. We also cut down the number of management layers by broadening manager scopes, particularly where we had "micro-teams" of only 1-2 reports. In all, we've reduced the number of employees who sit 7+ layers from the CEO by 20% and the number of micro-teams by nearly 50%. The outcome is a simpler org chart geared toward building versus managing.
Team simplification: We brought together teams where fragmentation was creating duplication and slowing decisions. The most significant example of this is Mac's decision to combine our three current Delivery Ops teams (across Restaurants, Retail, and Direct) into single-threaded teams at the global, regional, and country levels. Running these three businesses separately made sense in their early days, but that structure is no longer serving us at scale. Bringing the P&Ls together under single owners will reduce overlap, clarify accountability, and allow GMs to allocate capital more efficiently and effectively based on their strategic imperatives. Another example of this: in Tech, we're combining our Core Services Engineering and Science teams, mirroring the structure we already have on Mobility and Delivery.
Location strategy: The benefits of sitting together, collaborating in person, and solving problems as a team are clearer than ever in our post-Covid world. With that in mind, we're establishing clearer principles for where roles and teams should be based, with the goal of concentrating teams in a smaller number of key hubs. Global teams will be concentrated in our largest global hubs, NY and SF; regional teams in designated regional hubs; local teams in country hubs; and tech teams in tech hubs. We'll prioritize co-location between managers and their teams wherever possible, particularly for earlier-career employees. We are also asking the vast majority of remote employees to move to an office, and going forward, only ~1% of employees will be remote. We'll also continue to reinforce compliance with our hybrid work policy, which requires three days a week in the office. You can read more about our location strategy here.
I realize this is a lot of change, but we decided it was better to make one big shift rather than multiple small ones. We also know organizational changes can be hugely distracting, and our job is to create an environment that allows you to focus and do your best work. With these decisions now made, our focus is on the future.
We have tremendous momentum, significant financial capacity, and opportunities in front of us that are larger than at any point since I joined the company. The decisions we're making today are difficult, but they will help us build an even stronger Uber for the years ahead.
You can read more about the changes across the company here, and please be sure to read specific follow-up information you'll receive from your leaders about what this means for your team, so we can all keep building together.
Uber on,
Dara
The restructuring follows a subdued stretch for Uber shares this year , which were down 8% year-to-date through Tuesday's close after trading largely range-bound between $70 and $80.
The market welcomed the cost-cutting measures, with shares gaining nearly 2% in premarket trading in New York.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/02/2026 - 09:20 Close
Wed, 02 Sep 2026 12:45:00 +0000 The Leipzig Incident Has All The Hallmarks Of A False Flag
The Leipzig Incident Has All The Hallmarks Of A False Flag
The Leipzig Incident Has All The Hallmarks Of A False Flag
Authored by Andrew Korybko,
It was carried out to justify the German economy’s evolution to war footing, distract from the resultant problems, and legitimize a future serious escalation against Russia.
Germany blamed Russia for last month’s incident in Leipzig when one explosives-laden drone was found on the tarmac in proximity to Ukrainian cargo planes, another reportedly collided with a separate cargo plane as it tried to land but failed to explode, and a third was later found close to the premises. Putin condemned their claim, shared his opinion that it was a false flag due to them planting evidence, and speculated that the motive was to distract from domestic problems by fearmongering about Russia .
While skeptics might roll their eyes, the Leipzig incident has all the hallmarks of a false flag.
For starters, Germany is implying cartoonish incompetence on the part of Russia. The public is supposed to believe that the most skilled drone operators in the world, who were tasked with what would have been the most sensational Hybrid War attack on NATO ever, left a drone on the tarmac, got unlucky when another failed to explode after it hit a landing cargo plane, and left another nearby. That’s difficult to believe.
The second point to make in support of Putin’s hypothesis is that something similar happened last fall when unknown drones forced major airports in Scandinavia to temporarily ground all flights. Zelensky predictably blamed Russia and called for closing the Danish Straits to its shipping. As with the Leipzig incident, no evidence was ever shared in support of that claim, but it served as the precedent to blame Russia for mysterious drone-related incidents in Europe in order to justify more escalations against it.
And finally, while Zelensky’s proposed escalation ultimately never came to fruition (most likely to avoid a hot NATO-Russian war), an escalation of some sort might follow the Leipzig incident. It was argued here in late August that NATO would expect to gain more from a serious escalation with Russia than the inverse, which could take the form of resuming summer’s failed drone campaign against Russia at scale indefinitely in pursuit of its deindustrialization and demilitarization. That might be attempted next year.
Observers should remember that Germany, which is now Ukraine’s second-most-important military patron behind the US, reached a deal in the spring to develop Ukraine’s deep-strike capabilities . Its economy is also getting on war footing as Germany rapidly remilitarizes in furtherance of its goal to command Europe’s largest army ahead of the EU’s prediction of a possible war with Russia around 2030 . This has proven unpopular with voters , however, ergo the need to justify it through the Leipzig incident.
To recap the explanation of Putin’s false flag hypothesis, last fall’s Russian drone scare in Scandinavia served as the pretext for blaming the Kremlin for future such incidents without evidence, which Germany has now done with the Leipzig one. The narrative of Russian drone operators’ incompetence is difficult to believe, however, but it’s still being pushed to justify the Germany economy’s evolution to war footing, distract from the resultant problems, and legitimize a future serious escalation against Russia.
As was written, this could take the form of resuming summer’s failed drone campaign against Russia at scale indefinitely in pursuit of its deindustrialization and demilitarization, but that risks crossing Russia’s nuclear threshold per its updated doctrine . At the very least, Putin would once again mildly “escalate to de-escalate” against Ukraine, but there’s always a chance that everything spirals out of control. It would therefore be best for Germany to eschew escalation just like the Scandinavian states ultimately did.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/02/2026 - 08:45 Close
Wed, 02 Sep 2026 12:35:00 +0000 Bloomberg Agri Index Posts Biggest Monthly Jump Since Arab Spring Riots As Food-Crisis Risks Mount
Bloomberg Agri Index Posts Biggest Monthly Jump Since Arab Spring Riots As Food-Crisis Risks Mount
The Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index (BCOMAGSP) posted its largest monthly gain since the chaotic days of the Arab Spring rio
Read more.....
Bloomberg Agri Index Posts Biggest Monthly Jump Since Arab Spring Riots As Food-Crisis Risks Mount
The Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index (BCOMAGSP) posted its largest monthly gain since the chaotic days of the Arab Spring riots and is nearing a breakout above its 2023 highs, signaling a broad-based acceleration in agricultural commodity prices. The upside momentum comes as Wall Street increasingly warns that a perfect storm of factors, from El Niño and higher fertilizer and diesel prices to disruptions in the Black Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, could push the global food system toward another crisis .
From veteran commodities strategist Jeff Currie turning bullish and UBS urging clients last week to "position for a commodity upcycle " to warnings from Barclays analyst Craig Rye and JPMorgan analyst Nora Szentivanyi, the message from Wall Street is becoming increasingly harder and harder to ignore: Agricultural prices are breaking out, raising the risk that today's physical commodity squeeze develops into a worldwide food crisis next year.
For August, BCOMAGSP logged an impressive 13.5% gain , its largest monthly increase since July 2012's 14.3% gain - around the time of Arab Spring spread across Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Syria, and Bahrain.
BCOMAGSP is up 39% from its 2024 low. If the upside momentum continues, the index, which tracks major crops and soft commodities, is poised to take out its 2023 highs.
Our latest coverage:
Snapshot of the broader commodity complex:
1. Hormuz tanker strikes send Brent above $92. Two oil tankers were struck in the Strait of Hormuz overnight. Brent traded around $92.20, up roughly 2%, while WTI traded between $87.80 and $88.00, up approximately 2.3% to 2.6%.
2. Gold falls below $4,400 as the 10-year yield approaches 4.79% . Spot and futures gold traded between approximately $4,370 and $4,400, down roughly 1.3% to 1.9% following Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks. Markets are pricing in approximately 60% odds of a September hike.
3. Silver breaks into the $65 range, while palladium fares worse . Silver traded between approximately $64.70 and $65.40, down 2.4% to 2.7%; palladium traded around $1,340, down roughly 2.8%; and platinum traded around $1,768, down approximately 1.5%. Gold and silver are selling off together with rising yields, suggesting this is not an isolated gold ETF liquidation.
4. Chinese refiners bid ESPO to a $7 premium over Brent .
6. Long-term uranium hits another all-time high at approximately $96.50 per pound. The blended UxC and TradeTech long-term U3O8 price reached $96.50, while the UxC long-term price rose $2 to $96. Spot uranium traded between approximately $89.60 and $89.75, up roughly $3.
7. Distillate tightness remains the underreported oil story. Heating oil traded around $4.46, up 1.1%, while gasoline gained only 0.4% to approximately $3.09. Older but still relevant research continues to circulate showing US distillate inventories at 23-year lows and 13% to 14% below seasonal norms. Crude inventories are 6% below the five-year average following an eight-week, 47.5-million-barrel draw.
8. US Henry Hub remains weak at $2.92, while TTF and UK gas surge. NYMEX natural gas traded around $2.92, down 0.3%; TTF traded around €71.50, up 2.4%; and UK gas surged approximately 7%. US natural gas remains the orphan of the energy complex.
10. Copper slips roughly 1% despite the oil shock , highlighting the split between growth concerns and physical tightness. COMEX copper traded between approximately $6.51 and $6.61, down roughly 1.2%. Prices remain near cycle highs, with an August peak of approximately $6.75 and LME copper near $14,400 per ton. The physical-tightness and US inventory-migration story from August is fading into a rates- and growth-driven market.
11. Long-term breakouts in wheat and soybeans remain in play . Chicago wheat gained approximately 1.5% to 2%, trading between roughly 772 and 785, while soybeans gained around 1%, trading between approximately 1,288 and 1,301. Soft-commodity commentary indicates that wheat, soybeans and sugar have made long-term bullish breakouts, while cotton remains offered.
12. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is today's key event risk for the entire commodity complex . Foreign-exchange and commodity desks have flagged the ISM report as the session's primary catalyst on top of Warsh and Hormuz. A strong print could increase the odds of another rate hike, inflicting further pain on gold and silver while producing a mixed response in copper. A weak print could trigger a risk-off move that still lifts oil if interpreted as stagflationary.
13. Trump's SPR-for-Venezuelan-oil proposal and the country’s 65 billion barrels of reserves.
14. UAE refinery returns to full capacity after sustaining wartime damage.
15. Ukraine strikes the Ust-Luga oil terminal on the Baltic Sea.
16. Retail investors continue buying the gold dip, while CTAs and broader positioning appear offered.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/02/2026 - 08:35 Close
Wed, 02 Sep 2026 12:25:25 +0000 ADP Reports August Saw Weakest Job Growth Since January, Wage Growth Dips
ADP Reports August Saw Weakest Job Growth Since January, Wage Growth Dips
Following a weak JOLTS report (and mixed manufacturing PMI employment reports), ADP was expected to report a modest 47k increase in American jobs in August.
Read more.....
ADP Reports August Saw Weakest Job Growth Since January, Wage Growth Dips
Following a weak JOLTS report (and mixed manufacturing PMI employment reports), ADP was expected to report a modest 47k increase in American jobs in August.
It disappointed with only 37K jobs added in August (while July's 44k addition was revised up modestly to 46k)...
This is the weakest monthly addition since January.
Goods Producers shed jobs at the fastest pace since October...
Manufacturing, professional services, and information shed jobs.
Education and health care, construction, and leisure and hospitality all showed solid hiring.
Base Pay growth for job-stayers was unchanged at 3 percent, while pay growth for job-changers edged down...
Gross Pay growth for job-stayers was unchanged at 4.4 percent, while pay growth for job-changers slowed from 7.5 percent to 7.3 percent .
"Pay can tell us a lot about today's choppy hiring," said Dr. Nela Richardson Chief Economist, ADP.
"To understand hiring patterns, you have to look deeply into where pay growth is accelerating, where it's slowing, and for whom."
Notably, Richardson concludes that "Once-predictable wage growth has been overtaken by the complexities of demographic change, persistent inflation, and AI's effects on jobs. "
This doesn't bode well for Friday's payrolls report, and raises the question of whether The Fed will really hike rates with such weak employment data? Or is it all about its inflation-fighting credibility now?
Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/02/2026 - 08:25 Close
Wed, 02 Sep 2026 12:18:28 +0000 Futures Swing As Global Bond Yields Follow Oil Tick For Tick
Futures Swing As Global Bond Yields Follow Oil Tick For Tick
US equity futures are lower with Tech underperforming as oil prices / bond yields move higher (although off session highs), both in response to an acceleration in "kinetic
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Futures Swing As Global Bond Yields Follow Oil Tick For Tick
US equity futures are lower with Tech underperforming as oil prices / bond yields move higher (although off session highs), both in response to an acceleration in "kinetic hostilities" in the Middle East. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.1%, off session lows, while Nasdaq futures rise 0.4% after Dell shares jumped after the company boosted its annual sales forecast by $25 billion. In premarket trading, Semis / Memory are weaker and AVGO is -53bp with earnings after the Close today. Mag7 are mostly lower as are Software names with Hardware buoyed by earnings. Defensives and Energy gain while Cyclicals drop. According to JPM's Market Intel team, which on Monday turned Neutral on stocks (from Bullish), equities will continue to struggle until crude / rates stabilize. Europe’s Stoxx 600 retreated 0.7%, while Asian stocks fell the most in two weeks. WTI trades around $90/bbl as the yield curve steepens, having erased gains from Bessent’s "Treasury Twist". The Dollar is also higher as the Debasement trade continues to struggle. Commodities are mostly lower with Energy the lone bright spot and Ags underperforming Metals; keep an eye on gold to see if $4,300 acts as support. Today’s macro data focus is on the August ADP employment change (8:15am) and July factory orders (10am). Fed calendar is blank apart from Beige Book release at 2pm
In premarket trading Mag 7 stocks are mixed (Alphabet +0.1%, Apple +0.2%, Tesla +0.1%, Nvidia -0.1%, Meta -0.2%, Amazon -0.2%, Microsoft -0.4%)
Credo Technology (CRDO) falls 9%, suggesting that the communications equipment company’s second-quarter revenue forecast beat was not good enough to impress investors after the stock’s 44% rally this year.
Dell Technologies (DELL) jumps 8% after the company boosted its annual sales forecast by $25 billion due to surging demand for servers to run artificial intelligence tasks.
EyePoint (EYPT) slips 3% after TD Cowen downgraded the drug developer to hold, citing a challenging regulatory path following a trial failure for an eye disease drug.
FuelCell (FCEL) tumbles 15% after the power plant builder reported revenue for the third quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
G-III Apparel (GIII) falls 10% after the clothing company posted disappointing second quarter sales and provided a third quarter revenue forecast that also missed expectations.
GitLab (GTLB) surges 21% after the software company boosted its revenue guidance for the full year, beating the average analyst estimate.
Knife River (KNF) falls 2% after JPMorgan analyst Adrian Huerta cut the recommendation on the building materials company to underweight, writing that he doesn’t expect a “meaningful change” in public funding in Oregon, its largest market.
MongoDB (MDB) is down 12%, with growth in the software company’s Atlas product seen coming in below elevated expectations. However, analysts are broadly positive on the results overall, which topped expectations, while the full-year forecast was raised.
Sprinklr (CXM) falls about 2% after reported second-quarter revenue that was slightly weaker than expected; the software company’s stock has soared about 55% off a June low, as of its last close.
In other corporate news, Nvidia is in advanced talks to acquire artificial intelligence startup Hugging Face in a transaction that may total about $14 billion. Artificial intelligence coding startup Cognition AI is set to close a new round of funding that would vault its valuation to about $47 billion. GitLab shares rally as much as 20% in premarket trading after the software company beat second-quarter expectations and boosted its full-year forecast.
Brent crude hovered near $94 a barrel and WTI traded around $90 (although it has since dipped below) after Washington carried out its second round of attacks against Iran in three days. US diesel prices hit the highest since April. Bonds fell in most major markets, with the 30-year Treasury yield trading at 5.28%, near the 19-year high hit before Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s recent intervention. Chipmakers were under pressure in premarket trading even after Dell surged on a strong revenue forecast.
The latest rally in energy prices is compounding worries about persistent inflation, pushing up the premium traders demand for bonds already straining under heavy government spending and corporate demand. Traders put the odds of rate hikes this month at more than 50% for three major central banks, including nearly 70% for the Fed.
“The new baseline seems to be that the Fed will, after all, hike rates in September,” wrote Chris Turner at ING Groep NV. “Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has made it reasonably clear that inflation is not falling quickly enough to target and, given a reasonably strong economy, the Fed will need to act.”
While the selloff in bonds is showing few signs of letting up, the relatively modest moves in yields have offered traders some assurance. The retreat has been orderly and broad-based, rather than driven by credit risks or liquidity stress, said Stephan Kemper at BNP Paribas Wealth Management Germany.
“It suggests the market is pricing a higher-for-longer rate path, not a credit event or recession,” Kemper said. The key to lower yields lies in inflation expectations, he said, adding that any relief on longer-dated rates could “trigger a strong move higher in equities as fundamentals remain very strong.”
Dell became the latest company to reinforce optimism around the AI trade. The company increased its annual sales forecast by $25 billion in a further sign of surging demand for servers to run AI tasks. The stock — already the third-biggest boost to the S&P 500 after a 240% rally this year — jumped another 9.3% in premarket. Shares of HP Enterprise, which reports earnings after the market close, also rose, advancing 5.2%.
Yet, there are signs that investors are addressing lingering worries about high AI-linked valuations by expanding exposure. Around 115 S&P 500 stocks are on Evercore ISI’s “negative beta” list, where the rolling six-month one-day percentage change is inverse to the benchmark. The share has crossed levels last seen in the dot-com bust in 2000-2001, suggesting that “investors have proactively sought diversification” rather than waiting for a “bubble burst,” strategist Julian Emanuel writes.
Robust signals from Corporate America are offering equities a measure of support. Corporate cash piles are back to record highs despite the surge in AI spending, according to analysis by Societe Generale SA. Investors have also continued to pour money into equities, with global stocks attracting about $1.1 trillion this year, the strongest inflows since 2021, according to data from HSBC Holdings Plc.
While stock markets have remained relatively resilient, “that’s likely going to change once Treasury yields and Japanese yields break through current resistance levels,” said Patrik Lang at Global Gate Asset Management. “Positioning is a bit stretched, and short-term indicators are at overbought levels,” he said. “All of that points, regardless of the fundamental situation, to consolidation in the coming weeks.”
Elsewhere, governing Council member Joachim Nagel indicated that the European Central Bank will raise borrowing costs next week, though he stayed wary on what comes after that. Bank of Japan Board Member Hajime Takata, one of the bank’s most hawkish members, also left the door open for an outsized interest-rate increase.
European stocks are heading for a third day of declines, while futures are also pointing to a lower open on Wall Street as rising bond yields continue to deter investors. Higher oil prices continue to play a role, with Brent crude futures at around $95 a barrel. European natural gas futures have risen close to 3%. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:
Deutsche Bank shares rise as much as 2.5% to trade at a new 15-year high after Goldman Sachs analysts upgraded the German lender to buy, predicting it to deliver faster earnings growth than the wider sector from 2027
InterContinental Hotels shares gain as much as 2.4% after UBS upgraded the hotelier to buy, to reflect an “attractive opportunity,” with the stock now trading at a discount or a lower-than-historical premium to certain peers
Syensqo rises as much as 3.7% as private equity firms including Blackstone and Apollo Global Management consider bids for the chemical company’s performance and care division, according to people familiar with the matter
TT Electronics jumps as much as 13% after the maker of electronic components for performance-critical applications posted stronger 1H profit growth than expected and said annual earnings are expected to be above current expectations
PGE rises as much as 2.8% after Poland’s largest utility posted strong preliminary 2Q earnings that confirmed it’s benefiting from rising power prices, and its large coal production is helping insulate it from gas supply risks
Lottomatica shares fall as much as 11.5%, the biggest intraday drop since May 2023, after the Italian gaming group announced an all-share deal to acquire Spanish rival Cirsa
GEA Group shares fall as much as 3.6% after the company’s biggest shareholder, Kuwait Investment Authority, offered part of its stake in the German firm at a discount to the previous close
GB Group shares tumble as much as 5.7%, briefly hitting their lowest level since 2014, after being downgraded at Berenberg in wake of the identity verification and fraud prevention company lowering its guidance last month
Asian stocks fell, following US peers lower as renewed concerns over rising oil prices and global bond yields fueled worries about the outlook for interest rates. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 2.1%, snapping a six-day rally, with technology driving broad-based declines. South Korea’s Kospi slid 4% and Japan’s Nikkei fell 2.9% while benchmarks fell 1% or more in Taiwan, China and Australia. New Zealand stocks bucked the region’s broader losses and rose after the nation’s central bank raised its key interest rate for a second straight meeting in an effort to head off inflation. A rate decision is due Thursday in Malaysia.
Nick Ferres, chief investment officer at Vantage Point Asset Management, sees reason for caution. “Our sense is that the level of rates is near the point where it starts to pressure public, private balance sheets and equity valuations,” he said. “There is downside risk to risk assets in the near term.”
In FX, The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up almost 0.1%. The yen is outperforming, rising 0.2% against the greenback after BOJ’s Hajime Takata left the door open for an outsized interest-rate increase.
Treasury futures edge higher in early US session, paring small declines that lifted 2- to 10-year yields to fresh YTD highs. US 10-year yield is little changed around 4.80%, earlier rising just shy of 4.82%, with German and UK counterparts higher by 4bp and 5bp respectively; US 2s10s spread is around 1bp steeper on the day, near middle of Tuesday’s range. Bunds and gilts remain under pressure following Treasuries’ late Tuesday slide: UK 10-year yields are up ~6 bps to 5.28%, the highest since 2007, and German 10-year yields are nearing 3.4%, having not topped that level since 2011. Muting Wednesday’s price action so far, oil’s advance stalled as investors weigh latest breakout of US-Iran hostilities. Japanese front-end yields climbed during Asia session after BOJ board member Hajime Takata left the door open for an outsized interest-rate increase as well as back-to-back hikes. IG dollar issuance slate includes several deals already; five offerings totaled $6 billion on Tuesday.
In commodities, WTI crude oil futures are down 0.5%, S&P 500 futures 0.2% as intensifying US-Iran hostilities support oil near top of recent ranges. Precious metals and Bitcoin are down.
US economic data calendar includes August ADP employment change (8:15am) and July factory orders (10am). Fed calendar is blank apart from Beige Book release at 2pm
Market Snapshot
Top Overnight News
Iran has gone about seven weeks without shipping meaningful crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz, as a U.S. naval blockade succeeds where years of sanctions failed by cutting off one of Tehran's main sources of foreign-currency earnings. Unlike ?previous sanctions campaigns, when Iranian crude continued reaching buyers despite restrictions, the current blockade has stopped fresh crude cargoes reaching China, Tehran's only major remaining oil customer, increasing pressure on government finances and foreign-currency reserves. Reuters
Fighting between the US and Iran over control of the Strait of Hormuz intensified after a period of relative calm, triggering a fresh jump in oil prices. The US military carried out strikes targeting radar systems and mine-laying capabilities along Iran’s southern coast, and Iran retaliated with drone and missile volleys on US bases across the Middle East: BBG
The U.S.-Canada trade standoff is threatening to stretch past the midterm elections. The White House is shrugging off the threat. With a week to go before Canada imposes its retaliatory tariffs, aimed at key industries in states like Ohio and Texas with competitive Senate elections, tensions between Washington and Ottawa are at a steady simmer, with no sign of de-escalation. Politico
Russia since 2023 has been helping Iran develop advanced supersonic cruise missiles, and Putin has vowed to continue to provide support to Iran. FT/Washington Post
Bank of Japan Board Member Hajime Takata, one of the central bank’s most hawkish members, left the door open for an outsized interest-rate increase as well as back-to-back hikes, indicating he might push for a faster pace of tightening. The BOJ has raised its benchmark interest rate in quarter-point increments in the most recent three moves, while spacing the moves roughly six months apart. The size and frequency may change as circumstances evolve. BBG
Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Tuesday that the Bank of Japan will debate raising interest rates including in ?September with a focus on whether inflationary risks were heightening, signaling a strong chance of a hike this month. Reuters
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised interest rates Wednesday, warning that risks for higher inflation remain in play for the economy. The central bank raised the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, in line with market expectations. BBG
A closely followed measure of artificial intelligence token prices touched fresh lows this week, the latest sign of deflating prices in an increasingly competitive landscape.
Anthropic is releasing a new version of its powerful Fable artificial intelligence model that it says is better at coding and science tasks, as well as more economical. BBG
OpenAI is to restrict Astra model after rating it a critical cyber risk: WSJ.
Dell became the latest company to reinforce optimism around the AI trade. The company increased its annual sales forecast by $25 billion in a further sign of surging demand for servers to run AI tasks. BBG
Iran News
US President Trump posted "I’m not trying to force Iran to the bargaining table, as ABC Fake News reported. I couldn’t care less if they sign a worthless, to them, agreement. I like our position now much better, with almost total control of the Hormuz Strait, and their economy totally collapsing. They are just playing out the inevitable."
US Treasury Secretary Bessent said Iran doesn't control the Strait of Hormuz and the US took out Iranian radar along the strait, as well as got 17mln bbls of crude out on Monday. Bessent said that China pays Iran in yuan and when yuan cannot be converted to dollars, Iran starves, while he said they are in an acceleration phase of Iran bankruptcy and maybe Iran will lash out more kinetically.
US Central Command said forces successfully completed a wave of strikes against Iranian military targets on September 1st in which they struck targets including air defence sites, radar systems, maritime assets and facilities, mine laying capabilities, and communications sites.
US strikes on Iranian targets on Tuesday included two Iranian government tankers under a new 'tanker for tanker' approved by US President Trump to deter Iranian attacks on tankers, according to Axios. Furthermore, US officials said around 100 targets were attacked during the strikes, while it was separately reported that the US assessed Iran was planning to expand attacks against commercial ships.
Pakistan's foreign ministry said Army Chief Munir visited Tehran and generated substantial momentum on the Strait of Hormuz issue and that Pakistan is positive about all parties returning to the negotiating table.
Iran's IRGC said two tankers were blown up and stopped a few hours ago after striking mines in the Strait of Hormuz. IRGC also warns of additional penalties for shipping companies.
IRGC said it targeted US bases in Erbil, Iraq with missiles and drones. Iran's army also launched drone attacks on the US base in Bahrain, while Kuwaiti air defences confronted attacks by hostile drones. Additionally, the IRGC said it attacked a US Marines base in Jordan known as Camp Tibtain with missiles and claimed that a large number of US forces were killed in the attack. However, US and Jordan officials reported no casualties.
Russia has been secretly helping Iran develop advanced supersonic cruise missiles, according to FT.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were pressured as the risk-off mood persisted following a surge in oil prices and upside in yields, triggered by the latest exchange of US-Iran strikes, while President Trump warned that the "biggest attack of them all... is waiting in the wings" and that there will be very little left of Iran. ASX 200 was dragged lower by underperformance in miners, materials, resources and tech stocks, while better-than-expected GDP data was overshadowed by the geopolitical escalation in the Middle East. Nikkei 225 fell amid pressure from mining and tech, while there were comments from US Treasury Secretary Bessent, who called on Japan to stop reflation and shift from Abenomics to Takaichi-nomics. KOSPI led the declines in the region with tech stocks hit alongside the higher yield environment. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the broad downbeat mood amid weakness in some auto names following monthly sales updates and with the mainland not helped after the PBoC's open market operations amount was at zero.
Top Asian News
US Treasury Secretary Bessent said he emphasised the importance of sound formulation and communication of monetary policy to anchor inflation expectations in a meeting with BoJ Governor Ueda. Furthermore, he expressed strong support for Japan's decisive market and monetary steps to address the substantial undervaluation of the yen, while he noted the role of yen weakness in contributing to domestic inflationary pressures in Japan.
US Treasury Secretary Bessent said Japan should stop the reflation now and that Abenomics is done, stating that Abenomics has worked and it is time for Takaichi-nomics. Bessent also commented that Japan is one of the most vibrant economies of the world now and that it succeeded in reflating, but now needs to shift.
European bourses trade lower again on Wednesday, as the US and Iran exchange strikes for a second consecutive night. US CENTCOM said forces successfully completed a wave of strikes against Iranian military targets, while Iran's IRGC said it targeted US bases in Iraq and launched drone attacks on the US base in Bahrain. Sectors have a slight negative tilt. Banks top the sector pile, with Travel & Leisure and Telecoms rounding out the sector outperformers. To the downside is Autos, followed by Media and Retail. An update from STOXX is lifting Nokia (+1.0%) this morning, after announcing that the Finnish telecom giant, alongside Engie (-0.3%), will join the Euro Stoxx 50. This will be effective September 21st, replacing Volkswagen (-2.7%) and Wolters Kluwer (-2.7%) in Europe's blue chip index.
Top European News
Spanish Unemployment Change (Aug) 44.419K vs. Exp. 15.4K (Prev. 19.517K).
FX
Mixed action in FX today with G10s continuing the bias seen throughout the week, USD is stronger against most peers as yields fail to moderate, NZD to the greatest extent but JPY outperforming (USD/JPY -0.4%).
JPY is stronger in all major crosses with performance pronounced in EUR/JPY after pressure in the early European morning. The cross fell to a 184.55 base before paring some of the move back above the 21 and 59 DMA. No specific headline driver but known hawk Takata implied that the BoJ could possibly hike 50bps in September or deliver back-to-back hikes “need to consider a broad range of options, not just a 25bps hike each time”. However, it is worth putting these remarks in the context of Takata being a hawkish dissenter and him wanting a policy rate of 2.00% at a rapid pace; such an outcome would be unlikely to sway the rest of the board. On top of this, Governor Ueda provided some remarks overnight. He more-or-less provided two-way commentary, and ultimately did not dissuade market bets of a hike in September.
RBNZ failed to impress hawkish expectations in its policy meeting where the OCR was raised by 25bps to 2.75% as expected. While flagging further tightening, the bank highlighted downside risks to the economy and rate projections showed less expected tightening than markets expect, with the OCR projection for December 2026 seen at 2.81% (OIS Implied Rate: 2.99%), September 2027 at 3.12% (OIS Implied Rate: 3.48%) and December 2027 3.15% (OIS Implied Rate 3.75%). As such, NZD was pressured against all G10 currencies, NZD/USD -1.1% to a 0.5825 base just below the 50DMA and will likely look to the 13th August low @0.5821, NZD could remain offered in this dim risk environment, especially if market pricing narrows compared to MPC rate projections.
AUD was lifted after stronger-than-expected Australian GDP data, albeit remains weaker against the stronger Buck. AUD/NZD +1% testing the 1.2258 June high at the time of writing.
Fixed Income
Global fixed benchmarks are mixed this morning. USTs (-1 tick) are mildly pressured, whilst Bunds (-52 ticks) and Gilts (-60 ticks) extend on recent pressure. Whilst USTs appear to be taking a breather following the recent downside, Bunds and Gilts continue to be subject to hefty selling, amidst higher energy prices and ongoing fears surrounding fiscal/debt sustainability.
USTs currently hold within a 107-09 to 107-14 range. For the short-end, focus will no doubt be on key domestic data which will help decide between whether the Fed opts to hold or hike at its September meeting. The US Jobs Report is due this Friday, and the CPI late next week; a hot report on both fronts will likely see money markets extend their bets of a hike this month (currently seen at 68%).
The US yield curve is ever-so-slightly steeper this morning. The US10yr (4.80%) remains at elevated levels, with focus on whether it can move towards the 5.00% mark. That would likely require a significant escalation on the geopolitical front and/or hawkish NFP/CPI reports to cement a September move. Even if that does not come to fruition, the 10yr may remain above the 4.75% mark until the geopolitical situation materially improves.
Bunds and Gilts are ultimately pressured by elevated European gas prices, which are the highest in three years. There has been a lack of material newsflow dictating price action this morning, with only ECB’s Makhlouf and Nagel on the wires. The former said that the ECB should be ready to lift rates further, adding that inflation and growth metrics make him “uneasy”.
For Gilts, the first PMQs under PM Burnham draws focus, for potential updates on the cost of living, fiscal space and other key themes.
Australia sells AUD 900mln in 1.25% May 2032 bonds: b/c 4.21x, avg. yield 4.8949%.
Commodities
WTI Oct and Brent Nov futures are flat/subdued following the prior day’s ~5% rise. WTI resides towards the bottom of a USD 89.92-92.29/bbl range (vs yesterday’s USD 86.13-90.97/bbl band), while Brent sits towards the lower end of a USD 94.53-97.04/bbl range (vs yesterday’s USD 90.70-95.45/bbl range). Aside from geopolitics (summarised below), data from the API also showed that US crude inventories reportedly drew down by 2.6mln bbls in the latest week (exp. -0.8mln), which would mark the first decline in five weeks.
Dutch TTF remains elevated as Europe continues stockpiling for winter against the backdrop of supply issues from the Middle East, with the front-month contract towards the lower end of a EUR 73.20-75.33/MWh range (vs yesterday’s EUR 69.69-74.40/MWh band). European gas storage is said to be about 65% full, the lowest seasonal level in records dating to 2009.
Metals feel no reprieve from the subdued intraday oil prices, which remain at elevated levels, whilst DXY also holds an upward bias. Gold has extended its decline as higher oil prices, bond yields and inflation concerns lifted Fed tightening bets. Spot gold is off lows as oil eases but remains under its 100 DMA (USD 4,361/oz) in a USD 4,283-4,336/oz range at the time of writing. Copper falls for a second day as higher oil prices and renewed geopolitical tensions raised global growth concerns. 3M LME copper remains above 14k/t in a current USD 14,098.55-14,226.00/t range.
In geopolitics, US-Iran tensions escalated sharply after the US launched a fresh wave of strikes on around 100 Iranian military targets near the Strait of Hormuz. Iran responded with missile and drone strikes against US bases across various regions. On diplomacy this morning, Pakistan's Foreign Ministry remains positive about all parties returning to the negotiating table. More recently, Iran's IRGC said two tankers were blown up and stopped a few hours ago after striking mines in the Strait of Hormuz - although this prompted no reaction at the time of writing.
US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -2.6mln (exp. -0.8mln), Gasoline +0.3mln (exp. -2.4mln), Distillate -0.3mln (exp. -1.3mln), Cushing +0.2mln.
US Energy Secretary Wright said 17mln bbls of oil transited through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday.
Russia reportedly suspended grain export duties through 2026, RIA reported.
Trade/Tariffs
US Treasury Secretary Bessent said at the G20 press conference that the days of settling for sub-par growth are over and he had hoped to announce a unanimous joint communique, although all but China reached a consensus. Furthermore, he said it is unsustainable to have a non-market economy export surge and that it is clear China was the dissenter at G20.
G20 Chair statement was issued after China opposed joint communique language on trade policy, while the statement noted that the global economy remained resilient in the face of multiple shocks, including ongoing wars and conflicts, while the G20 is concerned by continued disruptions to energy trade and stress-free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. It also stated that advancing growth is a key priority across G20 economies and working to address impediments to growth, including regulatory and administrative burdens, while G20 finance leaders urged countries to avoid unnecessary export restrictions to ensure supply chains function normally.
Central banks
BoJ Governor Ueda said he discussed with central banks the need to communicate for appropriate monetary policy to achieve price stability as the global environment changes, while he said he held talks with Bessent, but did not comment on the details of their meeting and stated they held productive discussions on various topics. Ueda also refrained from commenting on day-to-day market moves or on markets pricing a strong chance of a September rate hike, although he stated that data released since the July meeting has been broadly in line with the projections in the quarterly report and that their basic monetary policy stance is largely unchanged from July. Furthermore, he said monetary conditions remain accommodative, so we would like to continue increasing rates, and stated that they have raised the policy rate five times so far, so need to carefully assess how the cumulative impact could affect the economy, but will also take upside price risks into account when deliberating policy.
BoJ's Takata (hawkish dissenter) said he believes the BoJ needs to conduct rate hikes nimbly after gauging the degree of accommodation in domestic financial conditions, in addition to examining developments overseas. Takata also commented on the need to take a flexible approach to policy and that Middle East pressures could push inflation above target. Takata later stated that they need to consider a broad range of options, not just a 25bps hike each time while a different response is needed from the normal semi-annual pace of tightening.
RBNZ raised the OCR by 25bps to 2.75%, as expected, with the MPC reaching a consensus on the decision, while the Committee judged that gradually removing monetary stimulus is appropriate to return inflation to the 2% target mid-point while supporting growth and employment. RBNZ said the decision reduces the risk that the OCR needs to increase by more later and that future policy decisions will depend on the Committee’s judgement of the balance of risks to medium-term inflation. In terms of the projections, the OCR is seen at 2.81% in December 2026 (prev. 2.84%), 3.12% in September 2027 (prev. 3.11%), 3.15% in December 2027 (prev. 3.15%) and at 3.28% in September 2029. RBNZ Minutes stated that the future OCR path is not pre-determined and indicators of medium-term inflation are consistent with inflation returning to the target.
RBNZ Governor Breman said she expects economic growth to strengthen and broaden, while she noted that OCR projections are relatively in line with prior forecasts and that they are moving the OCR up towards neutral and it is still accommodative, but noted uncertainty regarding the neutral rate. Furthermore, she said they may need to take some time to assess the stance of policy and are not on a preset course, with the rate hike timing highly uncertain, although stated there will likely be a further OCR increase and will assess the impact of hikes already done.
ECB's Makhlouf said the central bank must be prepared to lift interest rates further and that the combination of eurozone inflation above 3% and robust growth makes him uneasy, according to FT.
ECB's Nagel said that markets see a more than 95% chance of a September rate hike and that markets understand rather well the ECB's way of reacting.
Geopolitics
Russian President Putin said Russia has blocked a large enemy force in eastern Ukraine and keeps striking Ukrainian ports and energy facilities, while it is preparing massive strikes on Ukraine's energy targets. Putin also commented that Ukrainian President Zelensky's threat to close Russian airspace is state terrorism and that Moscow will respond, as well as noted that Ukrainian strikes caused real damage, but it is not critical. Furthermore, he said rumours that Russia is planning a new mobilisation to expand the army for Ukraine are utter nonsense.
Russia attacked Ukraine's Odessa and damaged infrastructure, according to an official.
Russia's Deputy Security Council Chairman Medvedev said "Germany deserves a direct strike on military equipment production for Kyiv", RIA reported.
US Event calendar
7:00 am: United States Aug 28 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -1%
8:15 am: United States Aug ADP Employment Change, est. 47k, prior 44k
10:00 am: United States Jul Factory Orders, est. 0.7%, prior -0.3%
10:00 am: United States Jul F Durable Goods Orders, est. 1.1%, prior 1.1%
10:00 am: United States Jul F Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.4%, prior 0.4%
Central Bank Speakers
2:00 pm: United States Fed Releases Beige Book
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Hot days and light mornings have suddenly morphed into chilly and dark ones as I write the first EMR back from holidays. We had a lovely time hiking, zip-wiring, white water-rafting, golfing and abundantly eating. I'm not sure if the final activity has influenced the fact that none of the new school clothes we ordered for them fit. Ahead of tomorrow's back to school this is a problem I've left my wife to resolve today! As a stone-cold boast, the best news for me this summer happened the day before we went on holiday. After 42 years of playing golf, I finally became a scratch golfer with a 2 under par round at Wentworth! This was the culmination of a 17-year journey where I moved out of London specifically to get back into golf which had proved tough living in the centre of London. It's only cost me 2 serious back operations, a couple of shoulder ones, various neck injuries, plenty of arm nerve damage, near permanent golfers' elbow, and not to mention the stress its caused on knees that have had 7 operations in 12 years. The only thing that has miraculously survived this major obsession/mid-life crisis is my marriage... just. Fingers crossed I can maintain my new +0.2 handicap and marriage for as long as possible.
As meteorological autumn begun yesterday, a chill swept through markets as rising geopolitical risk, oil prices and bond yields created a risk off start to September. It's worth starting by running through some of the fresh multi-year bond yield highs seen around the world to start the month. We saw the 10yr bund yield (+1.9bps) hitting a post-2011 high of 3.34%, the 10yr OAT yield (+3.0bps) hitting a post-2008 high of 4.20%, and the 10yr gilt yield (+8.1bps) reaching a post-2008 high of 5.22%. Meanwhile in the US, the 10yr Treasury (+4.8bps) hit a post-2023 high of 4.80%, and in Japan 10yr yields have crossed 3% for the first time in 30 years. With nominal and real yields rising, that meant equities took a decent hit as well, with the S&P 500 (-0.71%) and Stoxx 600 (-0.56%) both falling yesterday. Asia has continued the declines with the Nikkei (-2.95%) and the Kospi (-3.79%) leading losses.
The fresh catalyst for the sell-off over the last 24 hours was the jump in energy prices. That follows the latest strikes at the start of the week between the US and Iran, and it meant Brent crude (+4.60%) was up to $94.65/bbl by the close, its highest level since July, whilst European natural gas futures (+3.30%) hit a 3-year high of €72.22/MWh. This morning, oil prices are further +0.67% higher trading at $95.28/bbl as we go to print.
In terms of the latest on Iran, we heard shortly after yesterday’s European close that US was carrying out strikes on Iranian targets around the Strait of Hormuz. The US had earlier warned of retaliation for Iranian missiles launched against a US military base in Jordan over the weekend and Trump posted that if “Iran retaliates for this very justified attack, they will be hit again at a much harder and higher level”. Iran then responded with what it called a “decisive operation” against US bases in the region, with local media reporting more missile interceptions in Jordan. As a reminder, the renewed escalation has come as Iran has tried to target ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by going dark, with the US in turn seeking to degrade Iran’s ability to disrupt these flows.
The latest commodity moves came despite Treasury Secretary Bessent yesterday saying during the G20 summit that the Strait of Hormuz will be “bypassed” in two years given that oil will be going on land pipelines, and not via Hormuz. Bessent also revealed more about his plans for economic sanctions, saying that the US knows which British Virgin accounts are tied to Iran, and that the administration will be looking at airline leasing companies in its efforts to economically isolate Iran. On Iran’s side, we heard from a foreign ministry spokesman yesterday, who said that current situation doesn’t allow for return to an MoU with the US, with the reason being that the US side had violated the agreement.
Amidst the latest developments in the Middle East, as discussed at the top, bond markets extended their losses from Monday. So in the US, the 10yr (+4.8bps to 4.80%) Treasury yield reached its highest level since October 2023, while 2yr (+5.8bps to 4.40%) reached its highest level since July 2024, shortly before the Fed began its easing cycle. And investors also priced in an increasingly hawkish Fed profile for the year ahead, with the number of hikes priced by the June 2027 meeting up +5.1bps on the day to 64bps and the pricing of a September hike up to 69%. We traded as low as 27% when I started my holiday on August 17th.
That hawkish newsflow was reinforced by Fed Governor Barr yesterday, who said the Fed should raise rates in September if “inflation appears not to be moderating sufficiently.” His comments suggested he could support a hike unless inflation showed clearer signs of easing. So on top of Chair Warsh’s comments at Jackson Hole, more centrist officials also appear to be moving towards a near-term hike.
The bond selloff did temporarily ease earlier yesterday thanks to the latest batch of US data. That included a weaker-than-expected ISM manufacturing print, which fell to 54.6 in August (vs. 55.2 expected). And the components softened also, with new orders down to 53.7 (from 56.7), and employment down to 51.2 (from a post-2022 high of 52.8). Moreover, the JOLTS report of job openings also showed a weaker picture than previously thought, with job openings only at 7.271m in July (vs. 7.313m expected). In addition, the quits rate of those voluntarily leaving their role unexpectedly fell to 1.9% (vs. 2.0% expected).
Back in Europe, worries of inflation and higher energy prices continued to dominate market moves. Gilts led the losses, but that was primarily a catch-up from the previous day’s bank holiday. So the 10yr gilt yield was up +8.1bps on the day to 5.22%. Meanwhile, the 30yr gilt yield (+7.6bps) hit a post-1998 high of 5.86% with lots of talk about the government's buffer against its own fiscal rules being slashed with the recent rise in yields. All ahead of the new leadership's first budget on October 28th.
Staying with fixed-income related themes, we also saw the Euro Area-wide flash CPI print for August yesterday. That came in at 3.3% as expected, though we already had the releases from the biggest member states except for Italy (+3.2% vs +3.4% expected) beforehand. However, Euro Area core CPI was slightly on the downside at +2.4% (vs. +2.5% expected). Interestingly, the ECB’s Simkus said in an interview that “this September hike is not going to be enough” based on the current data, suggesting that more of the ECB Governing Council members are open to keeping a hawkish signal following the hike that is fully priced for next week. Expectations of ECB hikes by December rose by +3.6bps to 49bps yesterday.
The combination of higher yields and commodities also meant that equities took a hit yesterday, with stocks falling on both sides of the Atlantic. In the US that was led by the Philadelphia Semiconductor Stock Exchange Index (-2.14%), followed by the Nasdaq (-1.03%) and Mag 7 (-0.72%). In Europe, markets closed before the news of new US strikes against Iran, so the Stoxx 600 (-0.56%), FTSE 100 (-0.32%) and CAC 40 (-0.39%) posted more moderate declines while the DAX (-1.10%) underperformed. Stoxx futures are down around half a percent as I type this morning.
In Asia, as mentioned at the top, the Nikkei and Kospi are sharply lower with the S&P/ASX 200 (-1.04%) also trading notably weaker, with stronger-than-expected GDP data reinforcing expectations of another RBA rate hike later this year. Additionally, the CSI 300 (-1.25%), the Shanghai Composite (-0.82%) and the Hang Seng (-0.96%) are also lower as I type. S&P (-0.10%) and Nasdaq (-0.26%) futures are lower following last night's sell-off.
On the monetary policy front, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised its official cash rate by 25bps to 2.75%, marking its second consecutive rate increase as it continues its efforts to curb inflation. The move was largely anticipated amid growing concerns over renewed energy-price-driven inflation pressures. Updated RBNZ projections suggest the possibility of one additional 25bp rate hike before year-end. The central bank now expects inflation to ease to 3.9% in Q3, higher than its previous estimate of 3.3%, and forecasts inflation will return to the 2% midpoint of its target range in early 2028, later than the previously expected Q3 2027.
In Australia, the economy expanded 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, surpassing expectations of 0.3% growth. On an annual basis, GDP rose 2.1%, ahead of the consensus estimate of 1.8%. Following the data release, the Australian dollar was little changed against the US dollar, while the yield on policy-sensitive three-year government bond is currently +7.5bps to 4.79%, as investors increased bets that the RBA's tightening cycle could extend into next year.
Yesterday, Japan borrowing costs remained in the spotlight when Bessent stated that he preferred the BoJ to raise interest rates to help the yen, rather than see repeated inventions in the market. Additionally, the BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda also indicated that the central bank would continue to consider rate increases and assess whether economic and price developments remained consistent with its outlook. 2yr JGBs are around +5bp higher this morning.
Finally, in terms of other Europe data, we did get final PMI figures, with the Euro Area manufacturing revised marginally lower (52.7 vs 52.8 prevs). A downward revision from the flash reading in France and somewhat weaker outcomes in Italy and Spain were mostly offset by an upward revision in Germany. The data further reinforces the view that recent improvement in Euro Area manufacturing remains primarily a German story, which registered the highest manufacturing output index in the region.
To the day ahead now, economic data include the US August ADP report, July factory orders, and Italy July PPI. Central Bank events include the BoC decision and Fed’s Beige Book. Broadcom and Hewlett Packard Enterprise are among the notable earnings events
Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/02/2026 - 08:18 Close
Wed, 02 Sep 2026 12:05:00 +0000 Utah Judge Rules Charlie Kirk's Alleged Assassin To Stand Trial
Utah Judge Rules Charlie Kirk's Alleged Assassin To Stand Trial
Utah Judge Rules Charlie Kirk's Alleged Assassin To Stand Trial
Authored by Darlene McCormick Sanchez and Janice Hisle via The Epoch Times ,
The man accused of assassinating conservative commentator Charlie Kirk with a bullet to the neck will stand trial for aggravated murder, a Utah judge ruled on Sept. 1, almost a year after the fatal shooting rocked the nation.
Defendant Tyler James Robinson, 23, potentially faces the death penalty if convicted.
Judge Tony Graf Jr. of Provo's Fourth District Court bound Robinson over to trial, noting the probable cause standard had been met by the state on all seven counts.
Robinson pleaded not guilty to all charges.
The attorney for the Kirk family requested that the judge set a trial date at the next court appearance scheduled for Oct. 23.
Robinson faces six other charges alongside aggravated murder: two counts of obstructing justice, two counts of witness tampering, along with causing serious bodily harm by discharging a firearm and committing violence in the presence of a child.
The judge explained that a probable cause hearing allows the admission of reliable hearsay in Utah, without violations to due process as argued by the defense.
Robinson had the "motive, means, and opportunity" to kill Kirk, the prosecution argued during the Sept. 1 preliminary hearing.
DNA evidence, eyewitness testimony, and surveillance videos all link Robinson to the shooting scene, they said.
"There is a mountain of evidence here. The evidence is overwhelming," Deputy Utah County Attorney Ryan McBride said. "We know what Charlie Kirk stood for, and those ideas were repugnant to the defendant who was in a homosexual relationship with a man who is considering transitioning genders."
Kirk's alleged shooter imperiled other lives, prosecutors said. They argued this met the "aggravating" circumstance requirement for their pursuing a death-penalty-level charge against the defendant.
The circumstances included the presence of bystanders and children near Kirk as he was shot, the prosecution argued at the preliminary hearing.
The judge had noted before making his ruling that a man within two steps was able to render assistance to Kirk after he was shot and that at least two children were in the crowd.
Defense lawyers argued that the law requires proof beyond a mere "possibility" that someone else could have been killed.
There was only one shot, one bullet, and one victim, according to the defense, as they urged the judge to reject the prosecution's aggravating factor argument.
"There were no actual threats by the assailant to the third party," defense attorney Staci Visser said. "There was no evidence that would suggest that anyone else was threatened."
Before the hearing, Graf denied the defense motions, in part, to prohibit broadcasting and photography. Graf allowed one television station to broadcast the proceedings, one still photographer, subject to restrictions, and denied a request for a second still photographer.
The judge also allowed oral arguments and filings surrounding the Sept. 1 hearing to be publicly accessible.
Notably, he denied media access to the Discord chat involving conversations between Robinson and gamers surrounding the shooting, along with graphic video and photos of Kirk's death.
Before the hearing, lawyers representing Kirk's widow, Erika Kirk, had urged Graf to rule by Sept. 1, arguing against any "undue delay" while preserving Robinson's right to a fair trial.
By law, the judge's sole task is to decide whether there is probable cause - a required step before the case can head to trial, prosecutors noted.
That legal standard "requires 'evidence sufficient to support a reasonable belief that an offense has been committed and that the defendant committed it,'" prosecutors explained in a statement to the press, citing state law.
On Sept. 10, 2025 - almost a year ago - Kirk was fatally shot as he debated and answered questions from an audience of about 3,000 people at Utah Valley University in Orem, Utah.
Kirk, a 31-year-old Christian father of two, was best known as a conservative speaker who, at 18, founded the political movement Turning Point USA for young voters. Prosecutors say evidence points to Robinson targeting Kirk over his "political expression."
Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/02/2026 - 08:05 Close
Wed, 02 Sep 2026 11:20:00 +0000 Bessent Blames China For Derailing G20 Joint Communiqué
Bessent Blames China For Derailing G20 Joint Communiqué
The Group of 20 finance meetings in Asheville, North Carolina, concluded on Tuesday after four days of discussions among finance ministers and central bank chiefs on global tra
Read more.....
Bessent Blames China For Derailing G20 Joint Communiqué
The Group of 20 finance meetings in Asheville, North Carolina, concluded on Tuesday after four days of discussions among finance ministers and central bank chiefs on global trade. The news late Tuesday was that China had derailed the group's efforts to issue a joint communiqué by refusing to endorse specific language targeting trade surpluses and export-dependent economic models.
"The country with the world's largest and unsustainable current account surplus, the People's Republic of China, was the dissenter ," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters.
Bessent added, "Non-market-based economies pushing out a never-ending spring of cheap exports is not sustainable ."
US and European officials told the Financial Times that Beijing objected to language intended to support the smooth functioning of global supply chains for energy, food, fertilizer and critical minerals .
Asked why China had opposed the language agreed upon by the group, a senior US official explained: "They are guilty. If we are worried about persistent distortions, they are the worst offenders. For the G20 to have something at 19-1 is unbelievable ."
The dispute over the communiqué, an official joint statement agreed to by all G20 members after a meeting that typically summarizes areas of agreement, economic concerns, policy commitments or priorities, and areas requiring further cooperation, offers another glimpse into the widening economic fracture between Beijing and the West . China's staggering $1.2 trillion trade surplus in 2025 was up 20% from the previous year, as its heavily subsidized exports flood the West, such as cheap EVs produced by BYD Motors.
What the breakdown suggests is that Beijing remains unwilling to rebalance an economic model built around industrial overcapacity, state-directed financing, weak household consumption and relentless exports. For the US and Europe, the concern is becoming a national security priority as industrial bases are hollowed out while governments attempt to rebuild domestic supply chains.
"It came down to a few words . As we have seen with the Chinese, they try to slow things down and methodically change the nomenclature. We're not going for that," a senior US official told the FT. "They need to seriously reconsider this . If they can't even agree on words, they certainly won't be able to deliver on any action."
China also objected to any mention of "critical minerals ," according to the officials.
Last year, Beijing introduced sweeping new global export controls on critical materials after Trump slapped tariffs on China. Two critical materials subject to export restrictions, tungsten and germanium, among others, have only led to severe tightening across global physical markets.
President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping are set to meet on Sept. 24 in Washington, DC, as increasing hostilities have already emerged over Bessent's economic campaign against Iran and sanctions against Chinese entities. A Politico report last week detailed how US lawmakers are pressing Bessent to target large Chinese banks over Iran . Any such effort could come after the Trump-Xi meeting.
If Bessent targeted Chinese banks over their involvement with Tehran, we would expect Beijing to further tighten supplies of critical materials to the West, which is why we launched our decoupling theme, focusing on the top ex-China miner .
Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/02/2026 - 07:20 Close
Wed, 02 Sep 2026 11:12:00 +0000 Iran Targets Marine Barracks In Jordan, Sends Drones On Bahrain & Kuwait, After Trump's New Strikes
Iran Targets Marine Barracks In Jordan, Sends Drones On Bahrain & Kuwait, After Trump's New Strikes
Summary
Explosions in Jordan reported amid initial Iranian retaliation, drones
Read more.....
Iran Targets Marine Barracks In Jordan, Sends Drones On Bahrain & Kuwait, After Trump's New Strikes
Summary
Explosions in Jordan reported amid initial Iranian retaliation, drones on Bahrain .
Reports of fresh US strike wave on southern Iran , oil soars
Bessent Says Hormuz Will Be "Worthless Piece of Water " In Two Years
Iran offers conditional ceasefire: Pezeshkian says Iran will return to talks if the US honors prior commitments, which Tehran says it has violated.
Tankers hit in Strait of Hormuz: Two supertankers struck exiting Hormuz, escalating energy-market risks.
Oil prices surge: Brent crude rose above $92/barrel .
Diesel supply squeezed: Refinery disruptions are driving diesel prices and margins sharply higher.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
Yes 12% · No 89%View full market & trade on Polymarket * * *
Iran Targets Marine Barracks in Jordan, Drones Sent on Bahrain, Kuwait
Iranian state media is saying that the military retaliation is ongoing, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Force announcing that it launched a heavy ballistic missile attack targeting the US Marine barracks at Camp Titin , located near the Gulf of Aqaba in Jordan - which is at a significant distance, in the country's far southwest corner. State media sources further detail :
According to the IRGC, the strike destroyed multiple military installations and attack helicopters, inflicting heavy casualties on U.S. forces. The operation was executed as the second wave of retaliatory actions under the code name “Ya Rasul Allah.”
And more via state WANA News Agency: "The IRGC stated that the action was carried out in retaliation for a U.S. strike on a residential home during a wedding ceremony in Sirik, which resulted in nearly 50 civilians killed or injured, including children." Iranian claims of US casualties will as usual be hard to verify, but CENTCOM has said no casualties have resulted, per news wires:
US officials says no US casualties from Iranian attack on facilities in Jordan so far
In the wake of the US CENTCOM campaign, which may still be ongoing, Iran's Hormozgan grid is under blackout. Further damage is likely to be assessed and publicized in the coming hours. Bahrain, Kuwait also targeted:
Iran's army launched drone attacks on the US base in Bahrain, according to Fars News Agency
Kuwait Army says air defenses are confronting attacks by hostile drones
Jordan intercepts 10 ballistic missiles from Iran , three fell in remote areas: army
Initial unconfirmed footage now widely circulating of alleged IRGC attack on Jordan base...
Iranian Retaliation on regional Bases Begins
Iran is already hitting back, according to some early reports of what looks to be their latest retaliation, despite President Trump having earlier warned the Islamic Republic will be hit harder if it responds.
"If the failed Nation of Iran retaliates for this very justified attack, they will be hit again at a much harder and higher level, but it will not be the biggest attack of them all, that is waiting in the wings and, when it is over, there will be very little left of the Islamic Republic of Iran!" he stated earlier.
The White House indicated it is focused on taking out IRGC targets. But this has triggered the expected reaction:
Fars: Some Arab sources report that an explosion was heard in Jordan ; several explosions were heard from American bases in Jordan
IRGC says US attacks will tighten the lock on the Strait of Hormuz
Explosion heard in Erbil , Iraq , reports Fars
The last tit-for-tat instances also saw US bases in Jordan targeted.
One Atlantic Council analyst points out the obvious - today's action is yet another indication that the administration still does not understand how the Iranian government and leadership thinks (unless the intent is actual runaway escalation). Danny Citrinowicz writes :
Threatening Tehran with even more devastating strikes if it retaliates is unlikely to prevent an Iranian response. In fact, it may do the opposite. From Tehran’s perspective, failing to respond to a direct U.S. attack would undermine the very deterrence equation Iran has spent months trying to establish . The Iranian leadership believes it must demonstrate that American military action carries a price. That means Iran is likely to retaliate and it may even conclude that a broader or more painful response is necessary precisely to rebuild deterrence against future U.S. attacks.
This is the fundamental problem with Washington’s approach: it assumes that sufficiently strong threats will convince Iran to back down . But Tehran may draw exactly the opposite conclusion, meaning that backing down under threat would invite additional American strikes . Threats will not solve this problem. If Washington wants to prevent another cycle of retaliation and counter-retaliation, it needs a political strategy for ending the confrontation. Otherwise, each side will continue using force to restore deterrence after the previous round — creating an escalation cycle that becomes increasingly difficult to control.
The latest Pentagon leaks to the Washington Post happened days ago, and now this:
More latest via AJ :
The United States military says it is striking targets in Iran over attempted attacks on shipping as Iranian media reports explosions in Asaluyeh, Jiroft, Bandar Abbas, Qeshm Island, Konarak, Chabahar, Jask, Sirik and Lavan .
Iran’s army and IRGC promise the US will regret and face “severe punishment” for the aggression .
US President Donald Trump says “if the failed Nation of Iran retaliates for this very justified attack, they will be hit again at a much harder and higher level ”.
Trump: 'Large & Powerful Strikes' in 'Retaliation' For Mining Hormuz Strait
Confirmation from the President, describing these new airstrikes as ongoing and "large and powerful"... He added that this is retaliation for the Iranians mining the Strait of Hormuz. The full Truth Social post:
Notably he is warning the Iranians will get hit again "much harder" if they don't cooperate with Washington demands.
Early reports of US Strikes on Southern Iran Send Oil Soaring
Rare US strikes against Iran in the middle of US trading hours? Bold move if so. Some breaking headlines:
REPORTS OF BLASTS ACROSS IRAN'S SOUTHERN REGIONS: STATE TV
PENTAGON UNLEASHES FRESH ATTACKS On SOUTHERN IRAN
Al Arabiya: ‘DEFENSIVE’ BOMBING — source to Faytuks
EXPLOSIONS REPORTED IN KONARAK IN SOUTHEASTERN IRAN: FARS
US FORCES BEGAN STRIKING IRGC TARGETS IN IRAN AT 12PM ET TODAY
And from Al Hadath: "Explosions heard east of Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island; Five explosions heard in Qeshm and four near the Strait of Hormuz." CENTCOM has confirmed:
Today at 12 p.m. ET, U.S. forces began striking Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targets in Iran. The strikes follow recent attempted attacks by the IRGC against commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and against American service members deployed to the region.
Confirmation of the attacks also from the Iranians :
The Deputy Governor for Security and Law Enforcement of Sistan and Baluchestan Province says four projectiles hit the counties of Chabahar and Konarak, Iranian news agency, IRNA, reports.
General Ali Khalil Abadi confirmed the attacks stating: “Expert investigations are underway to determine the details of the incident, potential damages, and further information.”
Oil prices shooting up on the new apparent 'shoot-up', which has been previewed in various reports this week. Trump is now pulling the trigger on Hegseth's plan, it seems:
WTI nears $90...
US attacks on Iran have almost always come in nighttime and overnight hours - and typically only after US market hours close, so a daytime attack is very rare indeed...
Bessent Says Hormuz Will Be "Worthless Piece of Water" In Two Years
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told the audience at the Group of 20 finance ministers' meeting in Asheville, North Carolina, that Iran's ability to weaponize the Strait of Hormuz will be reduced to zero because "oil will be going through pipelines across the land ."
"Iranians are trying to use the Strait of Hormuz as a chokepoint. It's not a chokepoint for the US, but it is for many other countries. That will be bypassed in 2 years. In 2 years, the Strait of Hormuz will be a worthless piece of water . The oil will be going through pipelines across the land," Bessent said.
Bessent's comments this morning should come as no surprise to readers, since we've detailed the existing pipelines that bypass Hormuz and the new pipeline projects planned by allied Gulf producers.
However, these new 'alternative energy route' initiatives are wrought with an array of unknowns - especially in terms of security and infrastructure/construction protection in an obviously volatile region, cooperation among transit states (in overland routes), as well as immense cost notwithstanding. For but one recent headline example:
Iraq-Syria Pipeline To 'Bypass' Hormuz Likely To Take Four Years, $15BN To Build
And with both these named countries coming out of recent decades-long 'forever wars', and with especially Syria still being largely destroyed and fragmented, efforts to bring to fruition Bessent's anticipated bypass system "across the land" - as he says - will more likely be something that drags on far longer than the Trump administration itself is in power.
Read the full note here.
Also read Goldman's latest energy flow data through the Hormuz (here ).
Pezeshkian: We'll Return to Ceasefire if US Does
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on Tuesday reiterated his country's willingness to return to talks with the US, but made clear that Washington must return to its prior commitments made.
"I state explicitly that if the United States returns to its commitments under the ... memorandum of understanding, the Islamic Republic of Iran will immediately take reciprocal action ," Pezeshkian said on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan.
It is significant that he's there at the Kyrgyzstan-hosted summit in person, receiving a welcome from the likes of Putin, Xi, Erdogan, the UN's Guterres, and others.
Pezeshkian still blasted the US for "reneging on its commitments" under the agreement, which unraveled in June - leading to various weeks of sporadic tit-for-tat attacks - the latest which occurred just at the start of this week.
President Trump yesterday told reporters in the Oval Office that there will be a "response" to the Iranian attacks, but also cautioned that this would not mean a return to full-scale war.
US officials have talked about "mowing the grass" with a series of indefinite strikes, while ironically having an aversion to anyone applying the label "forever war".
Two Supertankers Hit
Two oil supertankers were struck by unknown projectiles while transiting the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, signaling yet another sharp escalation in hostilities along the world's most critical energy chokepoint.
The attacks follow President Trump's warning Monday that additional strikes against Iran remain possible. Traders are pricing in a further war risk premium , pushing Brent crude futures above $92 a barrel, while US diesel crack spreads have breached the critical $100-a-barrel threshold.
Maritime security consultant Marisks reports that Saudi shipping giant Bahri's VLCC Sidr was hit northeast of Khasab, Oman . The Sinokor-operated Senegal Prosperity was reportedly struck by three projectiles farther east. Both tankers were exiting the maritime chokepoint.
UK Maritime Trade Operations separately confirmed that a tanker completing an outbound transit of Hormuz reported three projectile strikes but did not identify the vessel.
Brent crude futures ripped higher during Asian and European trading on the news, with the benchmark firmly above $92 as of 0600 ET.
More US Strikes on Table, Trump Warns
"President Donald Trump warned Monday that further strikes are possible, pushing Brent back above $91/bbl and driving another bear-steepening move across global bond markets ," UBS analyst George Redman wrote earlier.
US diesel crack spreads were above $100 as of 0600 ET.
As we've extensively detailed, the energy crisis is not necessarily in crude itself but in refined products . Gulf diesel and gasoline shipments have declined amid disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, while damage to Russian energy infrastructure from Ukrainian one-way attack drones has created a perfect storm in global refining markets in late summer.
'Diesel at Epicenter of Supply Squeeze'
Goldman's energy expert Daan Struyven warned in his most recent note that "diesel is at the epicenter of the supply squeeze ."
"Rising strikes on refineries in the Middle East and Russia have further constrained already-stretched global refining capacity, pushing refined-products margins to new highs ," Struyven and Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby wrote in the note, adding, "Diesel remains at the epicenter of the rally ."
Struyven and his team estimate that global refinery runs are down 7 million barrels per day from last year and have averaged nearly 6 million barrels per day below seasonal norms since March, around the time the US launched Operation Epic Fury and Ukraine ramped up one-way drone attacks against Russia's energy infrastructure .
Meanwhile, there may be some diplomatic traction in the Gulf area, with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian saying on state TV: "I state unequivocally that should the US return to its commitments under the aforementioned Memorandum of Understanding, the Islamic Republic of Iran will also take reciprocal action immediately."
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's "Operation Economic Outcast " is also ramping up as the Trump administration deploys sanctions to pressure Tehran into submission.
More Latest Developments
via Newsquawk...
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said Europe cannot claim strategic autonomy while following Washington's orders, stressing that true autonomy means making independent decisions.
Pakistan's Deputy PM and Foreign Minister met with Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi in an informal manner in Bishek at the holding room of the SCO Council of Head of States, according to journalist Anas Mallick.
Gulf Corporation Council condemned Iran's attacks on Jordan, saying they pose a direct threat to the security and stability of the region, according to Al Jazeera.
Yemeni armed forces targeted early on Tuesday the bases of Saudi and Emirati mercenaries in Al Makha and Al Khuwakh located in the southwest of the country, according to IRIB.
Hapag-Lloyd's (HLAG GY) CEO said it is reasonable to expect the Strait of Hormuz will remain blocked for the foreseeable future.
Tyler Durden
Wed, 09/02/2026 - 07:12 Close