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Brent crude slipped below $99 a barrel, falling as low as $97.77 in the overnight hours, as renewed US-Iran diplomacy and prospects for restored Saudi oil exports eased supply concerns. But as Goldman Sachs energy experts warned on Tuesday, the global refining nightmare will persist through next year.

The benchmark has slipped nearly 11% since mid-month after topping out around $109.65. Reports this week of a partial restart of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and Asian buyers being slated to resume cargo loadings at Yanbu offered some relief to a tight physical market. 

Full East-West pipeline repairs could take as long as two months, according to local reports. Even limited operations would ease the immediate supply squeeze.

President Trump said US officials held "very good" talks with Iranian representatives at the United Nations General Assembly in New York on Tuesday.

Special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner participated in the three-hour talks with their Iranian counterparts on the sidelines of UNGA.

"I feel very good right now," Witkoff said after the meeting. He wrote on X late Tuesday that the US hopes the talks "will prove constructive and promising" and the mediators will continue their work. 

UBS energy specialist Dominic Ellis provided clients with a full view of what's driving energy markets so far this week:

Brent is below $99/bbl, down about 3.8% from Tuesday's high and down under 10% from the $109/bbl hit early last week, as evidence emerged of debottlenecking of Middle East oil exports and of diplomatic progress between the US and Iran.

Saudi Arabia said that flows via the East-West pipeline could partially restart in coming days, and that exports from the port of Yanbu would also restart soon. Full repairs to the pipeline could take up to 8 weeks according to press reports, but even a partial restart would alleviate some of the immediate tightness in oil markets. 

Meanwhile, Iran acknowledged that there had been discussions with the US via intermediaries on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, and said it had shared conditions for a restart of transit via the Strait of Hormuz, which it said could happen in 7 days if conditions were met. President Trump called US talks with Iranian envoys "very good". 

Cynics will note that similar comments from the US in the recent past have not resulted in meaningful progress towards diplomatic goals, and that the US has already rejected calls for an immediate end to its blockade of Iran – one of Iran's preconditions for an easing of restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz. 

Still, the fact that talks are taking place at all is a development which cannot be ignored, and which is likely to keep downward pressure on oil prices until there is evidence that progress has stalled. On the other hand, a breakthrough in talks could push Brent back into the $80s fairly quickly. 

The desk's base case is that the US has a strong incentive to rely on the "carrot" rather than the "stick" in the period leading up to midterm elections in November. 

Reports on Tuesday that President Trump has made comments supportive of a US diesel export ban (despite Interior Secretary Burgum's statement last week that a ban would not likely have the desired effect) show he is growing concerned about elevated fuel prices in the US, and a focus on diplomacy with Iran may be the easiest way to bring oil and refined product prices down in the near term. 

In the medium term, however, Iranian conditions are not likely to be acceptable to the US, and we would not be surprised at a return to the low-level conflict we’ve seen over the last month.

Crude's retreat from triple digit territory is easing pressure at the pump, with AAA data showing the national average for regular gasoline slipping to $4.474 a gallon on Wednesday. But after a 9.3% surge this month, a modest pullback offers limited political relief for the Trump administration. Prices remain well above the politically sensitive $4 threshold, leaving the White House under pressure to turn diplomatic progress into a concrete deal.

Refer back to Goldman energy analyst Nikhil Bhandari's Tuesday note about the prolonged refining crisis and what it means for gas and diesel prices in 2027 (read here). 

Since the early days of the US-Iran conflict, we have tracked the rewiring of global energy flows. That theme continues today and is accelerating as LNG buyers seek supplies and shipping routes well beyond the Gulf. Before the conflict, roughly one-fifth of global LNG trade transited through the Strait of Hormuz, concentrating risk at a single chokepoint. That vulnerability is now driving buyers to rejigger supply networks. 

At last week's Gastech annual conference and exhibition for natural gas and LNG in Bangkok, Thailand, Reuters cited energy executives, government officials, buyers, traders and investors who discussed the urgency of securing new supplies from conflict-free areas, largely because the Hormuz chokepoint has become a major liability. 

Asian governments are pursuing longer-term supply security, while producers and trading houses are broadening their supply networks to include safer regions worldwide.

"A lot of governments are thinking not just diversification of the suppliers, but diversification of supply routes," Sue-Ern Tan, the head of the International Energy Agency's regional cooperation center in Singapore, said at Gastech.

Bangladesh, which previously relied on Qatar for most of its LNG imports, is searching for new supplies in Indonesia, Australia and China. Earlier this year, buyers including PetroChina and India's GAIL secured replacement cargoes outside the Gulf region.

The search for alternatives could support emerging producers including Argentina, East Timor and Tanzania, broadening investment beyond the US and Qatar, which dominate LNG exports. 

Thailand's state-controlled energy group, PTT, is now exploring supplies from Oman, North America and West Africa. Its trading arm recently signed a long-term deal with Norway's Equinor.

Also at Gastech, Shell executive Tom Summers said new capacity had largely offset the loss of 36 million metric tons of Gulf supply, leaving a net global shortfall this year of about 5 million tons, or 1% to 1.5% of supply.

Takayuki Ueda, CEO of Japanese energy firm Inpex, said that companies were focused on "portfolio resilience, portfolio diversification, diversification of supply sources, and also security for the entire supply chain."

Paul Marsden, president of engineering firm Bechtel, expects new supplies from East Africa, including projects involving companies such as ExxonMobil.

The latest EIA figures show that US LNG exports surged, averaging 17.4 billion cubic feet per day in the first half of 2026, up 23% from a year earlier. US exporters are helping replace disrupted Gulf supplies as the waters in the Gulf of America remain calm and commercial maritime traffic remains stable.

How do math skills compare around the world?

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Bruno Venditti, ranks participating countries and economies by the average mathematics scores of 15-year-old students in the most recent PISA 2025 study, published in September 2026.

PISA assesses students in mathematics, reading, and science. Its mathematics assessment goes beyond memorizing formulas or procedures, measuring whether students can apply mathematical knowledge and reasoning to real-world problems.

More than 760,000 students took part in PISA 2025 across 91 countries and economies, representing roughly 33 million 15-year-olds worldwide.

China in this ranking represents the participating jurisdictions of Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang. Uzbekistan is excluded because a comparable mathematics score was not reported.

Why East Asia Stands Out in Math Scores

China leads Singapore by 49 points, while Macao and Taiwan rank third and fourth with scores of 549 and 546, respectively.

Japan ranks fifth with 525 points, while Korea and Hong Kong are tied at 522. Estonia breaks up the concentration of East Asian education systems at the top, ranking eighth globally with a score of 508 and placing highest among European countries.

Where the U.S. and Canada Rank

The United States ranks 27th with a score of 463, exactly matching the OECD average.

Canada ranks 11th overall with an average mathematics score of 485, putting it 22 points above the OECD average. It also places ahead of several major European economies, including Germany, France, Spain, and Italy.

The United Kingdom ranks 10th with a score of 488. Australia comes in 17th at 478, while New Zealand ties for 14th at 480.

Math Scores Have Fallen Across the OECD

Across OECD countries, average mathematics scores fell by 22 points between 2015 and 2025, equivalent to just over one year of learning. Declines were also recorded among non-OECD participants.

PISA also found an association between heavy digital leisure use and student outcomes. Students spending more than four hours a day on digital leisure activities outside school tended to have lower mathematics scores and a weaker sense of belonging.

By contrast, moderate digital use was associated with better outcomes on both measures than either no use or very high use.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out Countries by Education Spending as % of GDP on Voronoi.

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

That Was a Short-Lived Boom.

After just a few weeks, the special economic effect of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has already evaporated, according to Germany’s Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs. In its monthly report, the ministry states that energy-intensive sectors and companies in German industry benefited from a massive disruption of supply chains in Asia following the closure — a one-time opportunity to temporarily offset the competitive disadvantages at home by shutting out the competition and moving into the business vacuum that had emerged.

Companies in the chemical and metals industries in particular benefited from this special situation, which generated robust growth in the second quarter, the ministry said.

Ultimately, the effect faded faster than expected. After just a few weeks, the German economic miracle was over — and the gray reality has returned. According to the ministry, the German economy continues to lack growth impulses. The stagnation is therefore continuing.

Bad news for the German government, and even worse news for Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who is desperately hoping for economic figures he can use as campaign ammunition rather than going into the next election with completely empty hands when voters hand him another political rebuke in just a few days. Pressure on the unpopular chancellor is also growing within his own party. Merz should actually be delivering something substantial by now — after more than a year of his debt orgy. He should be spreading hope of an impending upswing. Instead, his artificial economy, bloated with ever more debt, keeps collapsing like a soufflé.

The figures from the economy show that this soufflé will not rise again anytime soon. Industrial production is currently 3.3 percent below its level a year ago. Energy-intensive industries in particular, which are falling back into their old apathy after the Iranian special boom, reported a 1.7 percent decline in July. No stimulus can be expected from German consumers — real retail sales fell by 3.4 percent from the previous month in July. Inflation is eating into household purchasing power, and the weak labor market is showing its teeth.

Given the dramatic state of German industry, no one should expect an upswing in the German labor market. A total of 144,000 industrial jobs have been lost in the past twelve months alone. In August, the number of unemployed stood at 3.06 million — although statistical manipulation involving unregistered unemployed people in job-creation programs, short-time work or early retirement conceals the true state of the labor market. The naked truth about the German economy is also hidden in basic income support and other social programs — underemployment is a far greater problem than the statistics allow us to see.

Compared with the previous year, Germany’s job centers count 226,000 fewer people employed in the German economy. The German state’s reforestation program in the public sector will do little more than provide cosmetic relief. The decline is real, and it is reflected in corporate insolvencies, which this year are at their highest level since 2013.

More than 18,500 corporate failures over the past twelve months are now on the books. They are compelling evidence of the structural problems at Germany’s economic location, which could only be eliminated through a political U-turn of 180 degrees. Yet even following a political change, returning to a path of growth would probably be difficult. The collateral damage left behind by political ideologues has simply become too great.

Germany is trapped: cut off from Russian gas, caught in the grip of the emerging diesel-price crisis caused by the Hormuz closure, and dependent on the goodwill of the Americans, who have become its main supplier of fossil fuels — the German economy is stumbling toward a price shock with almost no alternatives.

Once this energy shock works its way through the economic chain and into consumer prices, many German households will be in trouble. They have already been suffering from rising prices for years. Among supporters of degrowth ideology, this fatal combination of circumstances may be cause for celebration. Everyone, however, should be aware that Germany’s deeply divided society needs a boost in prosperity more urgently than ever. And growth is only conceivable in an environment of secure and affordable energy.

Economics is the study of relationships and scarcity. Germany is competing with giants such as China and the United States. Energy prices there are now so significantly below German levels that the bleeding of domestic industry has become inevitable, regardless of how much subsidy money is pumped into the economic body through subsidized industrial electricity prices or direct aid.

Political action in these times appears bizarre. Berlin and Brussels are responding to their own interventionism, the regulatory shackles left behind by low interest rates, climate regulation and energy policy, with further regulation and strangulation of businesses. Are we really surprised by the zombification of large parts of the economy, which now has to compensate for the significant rise in borrowing costs? This policy is dangerous to society. It is destabilizing and could only be prevented by a radical return to the market economy, to a principle of limited government while mobilizing all the forces of society. Until that realization matures, it will be a long and very dangerous road for all supporters of a free society and the market economy.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a graduate economist, has worked for or over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

For the 17th consecutive time, the World Economic Forum has named Iceland the most gender-equal country in the world.

This is according to the Global Gender Gap Report 2026, which was released earlier this week.

Iceland is the only country to have closed its gender gap by more than 90 percent and one of only four economies that have consistently been in the top 10 since the index's inception in 2006.

As Statista's Felix Richter reports, aside from Iceland, these are Finland, Norway and Sweden, with the former two making the top three for the third consecutive year.

You will find more infographics at Statista

European economies have consistently filled most of the top 10 spots over the past two decades, with Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Ireland, Lithuania, Moldova, the Netherlands, Slovenia, Spain, Switzerland and the United Kingdom having each featured at least once in the past 20 years.

Several countries from Sub-Saharan Africa also made it into the top 10 over the years, including South Africa, ranked sixth in 2009, and Lesotho (2009, 2010 and 2011. Rwanda was in the top 10 for eight consecutive years between 2014 and 2022, partly due to the fact that it has achieved full parliamentary parity - a feat few nations worldwide have managed. Namibia first joined the top 10 in 2018, before it rose to sixth place in 2021 and climbed to a record fourth place this year.

New Zealand and the Philippines are the two countries in Eastern Asia and the Pacific to have appeared fairly consistently in the top 10 throughout the Gender Gap Report’s history, while in Latin America and the Caribbean, Nicaragua is the sole high performing country. Notably, the regions of Central Asia, Southern Asia, North America and the Middle East and Northern Africa are underrepresented at the top of the gender parity ranking.

The Gender Gap Index is a means to benchmark gender parity across four dimensions: economic opportunities, educational, health and political leadership. The level of progress toward gender parity is calculated as the ratio of the value of each indicator for women to the value for men, with a parity score of 1 indicating full parity. The index also expresses progress toward gender parity as a percentage.

Authored by News Desk via The Cradle,

Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi announced a June 2027 deadline for the disarmament of the country's resistance factions in comments released on 21 September, extending a previous deadline which had been set for the end of this month.

Iraq PM sets June 2027 deadline to disarm armed militias
——
Iraq’s Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi has pledged to disarm the country’s militias by June 2027, outlining the phased plan for the first time in an interview with The New York Times in Baghdad on Saturday.

“This is not… pic.twitter.com/nGNEtFQ9mp

— The Cradle (@TheCradleMedia) September 22, 2026

The announcement came in an interview with the New York Times (NYT), carried out on Saturday, during which Zaidi detailed the disarmament plan that Washington has been pushing so heavily for.

"This is not something that is optional. It is a necessity. Others who spoke of this then backtracked. They yielded to pressure or to other concerns. For me, this issue, along with that of corruption, is a matter of honor," the Iraqi premier told NYT.

"We wish to build bridges and economic ties between Iraq and the countries of the world. Under this government, Iraq will be a meeting point, not a point of hostility. Arms have to be confined first so you can build a solid economy," he added.

Zaidi had previously announced a 30 September deadline to disarm the Iraqi factions. Yet this deadline was firmly rejected by the resistance, leading to the extension.

"There would first be a 90-day period during which the militias would not launch any attacks and be assured that they would not be attacked by US forces," Zaidi said to NYT.

"After that, the [factions] would begin handing over their weapons, with disarmament ending by 30 June, 2027."

According to NYT, the resistance is "pushing" to have the deadline extended to the end of next year.

The newspaper refers to the new date as ambitious.

"The timeline is extremely precarious" and "impossible to meet during a time of war," regional diplomats and Iraqi security officials are quoted as saying by the outlet.

Zaidi claims the plan will ensure the resistance factions "cease to exist as independent entities."

"They will join the Popular Mobilization Units as individuals and integrate into them," he went on to say.

US President Donald Trump's administration has adopted a significantly more coercive approach than its predecessors to disarming the Iraqi resistance, stepping up pressure on Baghdad in recent months to dismantle the resistance factions swiftly.

Washington reportedly froze security programs with Baghdad and blocked dollar shipments to the country earlier this year to pressure Iraq into dismantling Iran-backed resistance groups.

Iraqi resistance groups have demanded a full US withdrawal, rather than the "transitional" pullout agreed on between the US and Iraq, which will see Washington shift from a "combat" to an "advisory" role, while still retaining a military presence in the country.

At the height of the illegal US-Israeli war on Iran, these resistance groups inflicted heavy damage on US assets in Iraq.

They have also supported Gaza militarily throughout the genocide and have carried out operations in response to Israeli war crimes in Lebanon.

North Korea has continued to try and instill fear into Washington and Seoul, on Sunday firing two short-range ballistic missiles toward the Sea of Japan.

However, these were apparently new military toys in the arsenal, with state media touting "a new type of weapon" - which Kim Jong Un later described as capable of giving "the enemy an incurable headache and a very cruel and unavoidable blow."

Kim further said the test, which was conducted by North Korea’s Missile Administration, showcased the armed forces' ability to fight and that "the enemy will know better what such progress means without any explanation."

As for what makes this a 'new' weapon which is special and out of the ordinary, Space.com details:

But photos suggest that it involved a short-range missile topped with a hypersonic warhead, according to NK News, a Seoul-based publication that focuses on happenings in the Hermit Kingdom.

Hypersonic vehicles travel at least five times faster than the speed of sound and are highly maneuverable. They are therefore much harder to track and intercept than ballistic missiles, which, though very fast, follow predictable trajectories.

Kim further hinted at this when talking about his country's possession of "ultra-modern defense technology."

The pace North Korean missile tests have been steadily ticking up.

During the first Trump administration, Kim met the US president on a series of occasions. While historic, it didn't lead to the kind of breakthrough on 'de-nuclearization' that Washington and Seoul were hoping for, and Pyongyang has gone back to being on the extreme defensive.

???? "An incurable headache for adversaries"

On September 20, Pyongyang conducted tests of a new hypersonic missile under the personal supervision of Kim Jong Un.

Released footage revealed, for the first time, flight data for a missile designated "Hwasong-11B-1." According to… pic.twitter.com/1HqDRJ0IeD

— dana (@dana916) September 22, 2026

The White House has lately signaled it would like to get back on a direct diplomacy track with Pyongyang, but North Korea has been blistering angry over recent US-South Korea military drills on the peninsula.