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Thu, 08 Jun 2023 23:45:00 +0000 Rickards: The Coming Shock To The Global Monetary System
Rickards: The Coming Shock To The Global Monetary System
Rickards: The Coming Shock To The Global Monetary System
Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,
On Aug. 22, about 2½ months from today, the most significant development in international finance since 1971 will be unveiled.
It involves the rollout of a major new currency that could weaken the role of the dollar in global payments and ultimately displace the U.S. dollar as the leading payment currency and reserve currency.
It could happen in just a few years.
The process by which this will happen is unprecedented, and the world is unprepared for this geopolitical shock wave.
This monetary shock will be delivered by a group called the BRICS.
The acronym BRICS stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.
This play for global reserve currency status by the BRICS will affect world trade, direct foreign investment and investor portfolios in dramatic and unforeseen ways.
The most important development in the BRICS system concerns the expansion of BRICS membership. This has led to the informal adoption of the name BRICS+ for the expanded organization.
There are currently eight nations that have formally applied for membership and 17 others that have expressed interest in joining. The eight formal applicants are: Algeria, Argentina, Bahrain, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
The 17 countries that have expressed interest are: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Pakistan, Senegal, Sudan, Syria, Thailand, Tunisia, Turkey, Uruguay, Venezuela and Zimbabwe.
There’s more to this list than just increasing the headcount at future BRICS meetings.
If Saudi Arabia and Russia are both members, you have two of the three largest energy producers in the world under one tent (the U.S. is the other member of the energy Big Three).
If Russia, China, Brazil and India are all members, you have four of the seven largest countries in the world measured by landmass possessing 30% of the Earth’s dry surface and related natural resources.
Almost 50% of the world’s wheat and rice production as well as 15% of the world’s gold reserves are in the BRICS.
Meanwhile, China, India, Brazil and Russia are four of the nine highest-population countries on the planet with a combined population of 3.2 billion people or 40% of the Earth’s population.
China, India, Brazil, Russia and Saudi Arabia have a combined GDP of $29 trillion or 28% of nominal global GDP. If one uses purchasing power parity to measure GDP, then the BRICS share is over 54%. Russia and China have two of the three largest nuclear arsenals in the world (the other leader is the United States).
By every measure — population, landmass, energy output, GDP, food output and nuclear weapons — BRICS is not just another multilateral debating society. They are a substantial and credible alternative to Western hegemony.
BRICS acting together is one pole of a new multipolar or even bipolar world.
When the new currency launch is announced in August, the currency will not fall on an empty field. It will fall into a sophisticated network of capital and communications. This network will greatly enhance its chances of success.
The BRICS are also developing an optical fiber submarine telecommunications system that would connect its members. It is being developed under the name BRICS Cable. Part of the motivation for BRICS Cable is to foil spying by the U.S. National Security Agency on message traffic carried through existing cable networks.
What’s behind this quest to ditch the dollar? In no small part the answer is U.S. weaponization of the dollar through the use of sanctions.
On numerous occasions from 2007–2014, I warned U.S. officials from the Treasury, Pentagon and intelligence community that overuse or abuse of dollar sanctions would lead adversaries to abandon the dollar to avoid the impact of sanctions.
Such abandonment would lead to the diluted potency of sanctions, unforeseen costs imposed on the U.S. and eventually to the collapse of confidence in the dollar itself. These warnings were mostly ignored.
We have now reached the first and second stages of this forecast and are dangerously close to the third.
For years, the U.S. has used sanctions to punish nations like Iran. But the sanctions the U.S. and its allies imposed on Russia after it invaded Ukraine last year went far beyond previous sanctions regimes. They were unprecedented.
Many other nations began to conclude that they could be next if they run afoul of the U.S. on certain issues. And that fear has greatly accelerated the push to opt out of the dollar system entirely.
This desire is not limited to current targets such as Russia but is shared by potential targets including China, Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Argentina and many others.
The BRICS+ present a realistic effort to de-dollarize global payments and eventually global reserves.
For years, I’ve argued that the dollar would remain the world’s leading reserve currency for longer than most people think.
But below, I show you why a new BRICS+ currency could greatly accelerate the demise of the dollar as the world’s leading reserve currency.
How could it happen so much faster than I previously thought? Read on.
The Coming Shock to the Global Monetary System
The global desire to move away from the dollar as a medium of exchange for international trade in goods and services is hardly new. The difference today is that it’s gone from a discussion point to a novelty to a looming reality in a remarkably short period of time.
Dubai and China have recently concluded an arrangement whereby Dubai will accept Chinese yuan in payment for oil exports from Dubai. In turn, Dubai can use the yuan to buy semiconductors or manufactured goods from China.
Saudi Arabia and China have been discussing similar oil-for-yuan arrangements but nothing definitive has yet been put in place. These discussions are made complicated by Saudi Arabia’s long-standing petrodollar deal with the U.S. Still, some progress along these lines is widely expected.
China and Brazil have recently reached a broad-based bilateral currency deal where each country accepts the currency of the other in trade. Meanwhile, there’s a growing strategic relationship between China and Russia as the two superpowers jointly confront the United States. In the trading relationship between the two nations, Russia can pay in rubles for Chinese manufactured goods and other exports while China pays in yuan for Russian energy, strategic metals and weapons systems.
Yet all these arrangements may soon be superseded by a new BRICS+ currency, which will be announced in Durban, South Africa, at the annual BRICS Leaders’ Summit Conference on Aug. 22–24.
The currency will be pegged to a basket of commodities for use in trade among members. Initially, the BRICS+ commodity basket would include oil, wheat, copper and other essential goods traded globally in specified quantities.
In all likelihood, the new BRICS+ currency would not be available in the form of paper notes for use in everyday transactions. It would be a digital currency on a permissioned ledger maintained by a new BRICS+ financial institution with encrypted message traffic to record payments due or owing by participating parties. (This is not a cryptocurrency because it is not decentralized, not maintained on a blockchain and not open to all parties without approval.)
The latest information from the BRICS working groups is that this basket valuation methodology is encountering the same problems that John Maynard Keynes encountered at the Bretton Woods meetings in 1944.
Keynes initially suggested a basket of commodities approach for a world currency he called the bancor. The difficulty is that global commodities included in any basket are not entirely fungible (there are over 70 grades of crude oil distinguished by viscosity and sulfur content among other attributes).
In the end, Keynes saw that a basket of commodities is not necessary and that a single commodity — gold — would better serve the purpose of anchoring a currency for reasons of convenience and uniformity.
Based on the impracticality of commodity baskets as uniform stores of value, it appears likely that the new BRICS+ currency will be linked to a weight of gold.
This plays to the strengths of BRICS members Russia and China, who are the two largest gold producers in the world and are ranked sixth and seventh respectively among the 100 nations with gold reserves.
These and related developments are frequently touted as the “end of the dollar as a reserve currency.” Such comments reveal a lack of understanding as to how the international monetary and currency systems actually work.
The key mistake in almost all such analyses is a failure to distinguish between the respective roles of a payment currency and a reserve currency. Payment currencies are used in trade for goods and services. Nations can trade in whatever payment currency they want — it doesn’t have to be dollars.
Reserve currencies (so-called) are different. They’re essentially the savings accounts of sovereign nations that have earned them through trade surpluses. These balances are not held in currency form but in the form of securities.
When analysts say the dollar is the leading reserve currency, what they actually mean is that countries hold their reserves in securities denominated in a specific currency. For 60% of global reserves, those holdings are U.S. Treasury securities denominated in dollars. The reserves are not actually in dollars; they’re in securities.
As a result, you cannot be a reserve currency without a large, well-developed sovereign bond market. No country in the world comes close to the U.S. Treasury market in terms of size, variety of maturities, liquidity, settlement, derivatives and other necessary features.
So the real impediment to another currency as a reserve currency is the absence of a bond market where reserves are actually invested. That’s why it’s so difficult to displace Treasuries as reserve assets even if you wanted. Again, no country in the world can come close to the U.S. in that regard.
But here’s where it gets interesting, and why the dollar could lose its leading reserve status much faster than previously thought.
That’s because the BRICS+ currency offers the opportunity to leapfrog the Treasury market and create a deep, liquid bond market that could challenge Treasuries on the world stage almost from thin air.
The key is to create a BRICS+ currency bond market in 20 or more countries at once, relying on retail investors in each country to buy the bonds.
The BRICS+ bonds would be offered through banks and postal offices and other retail outlets. They would be denominated in BRICS+ currency but investors could purchase them in local currency at market-based exchange rates.
Since the currency is gold backed it would offer an attractive store of value compared with inflation- or default-prone local instruments in countries like Brazil or Argentina. The Chinese in particular would find such investments attractive since they are largely banned from foreign markets and are overinvested in real estate and domestic stocks.
It will take time for such a market to appeal to institutional investors, but the sheer volume of retail investing in BRICS+-denominated instruments in India, China, Brazil and Russia and other countries at the same time could absorb surpluses generated through world trade in the BRICS+ currency.
In short, the way to create an instant reserve currency is to create an instant bond market using your own citizens as willing buyers.
The U.S. did something similar in 1917. From 1790–1917, the U.S. bond market was for professionals only. There was no retail market. That changed during World War I when Woodrow Wilson authorized Liberty Bonds to help finance the war.
There were bond rallies and Liberty Bond parades in every major city. It became a patriotic duty to buy Liberty Bonds. The effort worked, and it also transformed finance. It was the beginning of a world where everyday Americans began to buy stocks, bonds and securities as retail investors.
If the BRICS+ use a kind of Liberty Bond patriotic model, they may well be able to create international reserve assets denominated in the BRICS+ currency even in the absence of developed market support.
This entire turn of events — introduction of a new gold-backed currency, rapid adoption as a payment currency and gradual use as a reserve asset currency — will begin on Aug. 22, 2023, after years of development.
Except for direct participants, the world has mostly ignored this prospect. The result will be an upheaval of the international monetary system coming in a matter of weeks.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/08/2023 - 19:45 Close
Thu, 08 Jun 2023 23:38:04 +0000 Trump: "I Have Been Indicted"
Trump: "I Have Been Indicted"
Former President Donald Trump on Thursday posted on Truth Social that he's been indicted, "seemingly over the Boxes Hoax," and that he's been summoned to appear at the Federal Courthouse in Miami on Tue
Read more.....
Trump: "I Have Been Indicted"
Former President Donald Trump on Thursday posted on Truth Social that he's been indicted, "seemingly over the Boxes Hoax," and that he's been summoned to appear at the Federal Courthouse in Miami on Tuesday at 3pm.
Donald Trump via Truth Social :
The corrupt Biden Administration has informed my attorneys that I have been Indicted, seemingly over the Boxes Hoax, even though Joe Biden has 1850 Boxes at the University of Delaware, additional Boxes in Chinatown, D.C., with even more Boxes at the University of Pennsylvania, and documents strewn all over his garage floor where he parks his Corvette, and which is “secured” by only a garage door that is paper thin, and open much of the time.
I have been summoned to appear at the Federal Courthouse in Miami on Tuesday, at 3 PM. I never thought it possible that such a thing could happen to a former President of the United States, who received far more votes than any sitting President in the History of our Country, and is currently leading, by far, all Candidates, both Democrat and Republican, in Polls of the 2024 Presidential Election. I AM AN INNOCENT MAN!
This is indeed a DARK DAY for the United States of America. We are a Country in serious and rapid Decline, but together we will Make America Great Again!
Developing...
Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/08/2023 - 19:38 Close
Thu, 08 Jun 2023 23:34:19 +0000 Tucker Talks Taboos After MSM Ignores Instagram Kiddie-Porn Bombshell
Tucker Talks Taboos After MSM Ignores Instagram Kiddie-Porn Bombshell
Tucker Talks Taboos After MSM Ignores Instagram Kiddie-Porn Bombshell
After his first episode topped 100 million views , Tucker Carlson is back with Episode 2, exploring how we, as a population, are controlled (or coerced) directly (through laws) or indirectly (through taboos).
Carlson observes the changing societal taboos in America, suggesting that they are being dictated from above rather than evolving organically, focusing explicitly on the shift in attitudes towards race-based attacks, adultery in politics, and child molestation.
"Let's say you wanted to control a country," the former Fox News man begins rather joltingly.
"Well," he explains "you'd want to make sure you had the complete obedience of everybody within your borders who was authorized to use deadly force ... you'd start with the military... [and other agencies] like the IRS."
"Controlling the guns would be a top priority for you if ever wanted to go dictatorial."
But, Carlson, asks, what if you wanted more, not simply to control people's behavior, "but to control how they think."
"In that case," he remarks, "you'd need to take charge of its taboos."
A taboo is something that by popular consensus is not allowed, it is not illegal, but it doesn't need to be.
"Over time, social prohibitions are more powerful and more enduring than laws."
Until fairly recently, Tucker points out that it was taboo in this country to attack people on the basis of their race, but he notes "apparently we no longer believe that - punishing people on the basis of their skin color is not only permitted in modern America, it is mandatory... as long as the victims are white."
He questions the definition and scope of white supremacy as described by President Joe Biden and expresses concerns about the blurred lines of crime, the erosion of defined legal codes, and the need to protect societal taboos as guiding moral principles.
Which brings Carlson to this week's horrific WSJ expose of Instagram's kiddie-porn rings which he notes has resulted in exactly nothing as "one of the largest circulation newspapers in the world reported that one of the world's most influential companies was promoting pedophilia and nobody in power did anything about it."
As Carlson notes, "The people who run this country no longer see child molesters as the worst among us"
In fact, he continues, "what we are allowed to dislike is being dictated to us from above, sometimes by force."
The trick, that has happened slowly and then all at one, is that "when a crime has no definition, anyone can be guilty of it"
"Don't let them rationalize away your intuitive moral sense."
"Cling to your taboos like you life depends on them... because it does."
Watch the full Tucker On Twitter episode below:
Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/08/2023 - 19:34 Close
Thu, 08 Jun 2023 23:25:00 +0000 "Family Man" Lionel Messi Snubs Saudis In Favor Of Miami To Usher In Twilight Of Legendary Career
"Family Man" Lionel Messi Snubs Saudis In Favor Of Miami To Usher In Twilight Of Legendary Career
While the Saudis may have notched a win this week with their tie-up between LIV Golf and the PGA Tour, legendary soccer star Lionel Me
Read more.....
"Family Man" Lionel Messi Snubs Saudis In Favor Of Miami To Usher In Twilight Of Legendary Career
While the Saudis may have notched a win this week with their tie-up between LIV Golf and the PGA Tour, legendary soccer star Lionel Messi quickly handed Riyadh a comeuppance when he chose to spend the twilight of his career in Miami instead of in Saudi Arabia.
It was rumored that Messi was going to be offered $1 billion to play in Saudi Arabia, a country where he has reportedly already worked as a tourist ambassador, Bloomberg wrote this week.
But the star turned down the payday to head to Major League Soccer's Inter Miami, where details of his agreement have not yet been made public, though there are rumors of profit sharing agreements with Apple Inc. and Adidas AG, the report notes.
“I made the decision that I am going to Miami. I still haven’t closed it one hundred percent. I’m missing some things but we decided to continue my journey there,” Messi said earlier this week, as was reported by CNN .
Major League Soccer stated: "We are pleased that Lionel Messi has stated that he intends to join Inter Miami and Major League Soccer this summer. Although work remains to finalize a formal agreement, we look forward to welcoming one of the greatest soccer players of all time to our League.”
Simon Chadwick, a professor of sport and geopolitical economy at Skema Business School in Paris told Bloomberg that Messi is “a family man, very stable in his personal life, so as a brand he is very different than Ronaldo’s.”
He said that in Miami, Messi will be “enjoying much more the day to day.”
Messi's foil, Cristiano Ronaldo, famously went on to play for Saudi Professional League club Al Nassr to end his career, reportedly reaping an ungodly €200 million per year in salary. Ronaldo reportedly turned down a move to Major League Soccer for the deal. Messi, naturally, has done the opposite.
Soccer mega-star David Beckham is part of Inter Miami's ownership team, which may have helped in Messi's decision making, multiple reports stated.
Barcelona club president Joan Laporta “understood and respected Messi’s decision to want to compete in a league with fewer demands, further away from the spotlight and the pressure he has been subject to in recent years,” a statement said.
Laporta and Messi's father have committed to working on a “tribute from Barça fans to honor a footballer who has been, is, and always will be beloved by Barça," CNN concluded.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/08/2023 - 19:25 Close
Thu, 08 Jun 2023 23:05:00 +0000 Inflation & Biden Regulations Are Making Life Hard; Small Business Owners Say
Inflation & Biden Regulations Are Making Life Hard; Small Business Owners Say
Inflation & Biden Regulations Are Making Life Hard; Small Business Owners Say
Authored by Michael Clements via The Epoch Times,
Small business owners are calling on Congress to address inflation by easing business regulations and taxes. They say Biden administration policies show disdain for small businesses.
Silvia Lee, executive vice president, and Chief Lending Officer for First Community Bank in Corpus Christi, Texas, said a commercial customer told her he felt targeted.
“He mentioned that he feels our government doesn’t want small businesses to succeed and only wants large companies in business,” she told the House Committee on Small Business at a June 7 hearing.
David Zittel, a vegetable farmer from New York, called on Congress to protect small businesses.
“The Zittels hope that vegetables will always be grown on our land for generations to come, and we look forward to carrying on the farming tradition but also look to Congress to ensure that laws and regulations do not put us out of business,” Zittel said.
Zittel and the other witnesses said regulation is raising the cost of doing business to the point that they are in danger of pricing their products out of the market.
Members of small business owners take part in a “Save Small Business” protest in Los Angeles, Calif., on Dec. 12, 2020. (Ringo Chiu/AFP via Getty Images)
Lee said that raising interest rates to control inflation forces many of her bank’s customers, home builders, to scale back their operations.
She told the committee that two builders in her area were forced to close with unfinished homes. This left their customers scrambling to find a builder to finish the jobs. She said she sees every day the impact government has on a business’s bottom line.
Lee said that all of her bank’s employees bear some responsibility for compliance; at least 30 workers are responsible for ensuring compliance with banking regulations. She pointed out that ensuring compliance doesn’t increase a business’s profit margin. Committee member Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer (R-Mo.) agreed that something should be done.
“That’s a dead investment,” he told Lee.
A letter signed by 66 business owners and submitted to the committee called on Congress to mitigate the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017.
A worker sits in an empty gift shop in New York City’s Chinatown on Feb. 13, 2020. (Spencer Platt/Getty Images)
That policy requires businesses to carry research and development costs on their books and depreciate them as an asset. The letter reads that in the past, business was allowed to expense research and development, which reduces the business’s tax burden and frees up money for more research, payroll, or other needs.
According to the letter, the tax regulation is tough on new businesses.
“Research, development, and experimentation costs can quickly eat away at a growing startup’s budget,” the letter reads.
“But immediate expensing for R&E expenditures helps to offset these costs, allowing startups to propel the U.S. as a leader in global innovation.”
But, at least one economist blames business for inflation.
Josh Bivens is Chief Economist and Research Director for the Economic Policy Institute in Washington. He said inflation is a complex issue, in this case, driven by businesses trying to deal with disruptions from the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. He said that inflation is a global issue and that the United States is faring better than other countries in its recovery.
‘Shocks and Ripples’
Bivens said the inflationary cycle began with “shocks and ripples” during the pandemic.
“These shocks were the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the ripples were mostly about jockeying by different economic actors—corporations, workers, and suppliers—to protect their real incomes from these shocks,” Bivens’ written testimony reads.
According to Bivens, the solution is more regulation. He said wealthier businesses could raise their prices while refusing to meet the increase in their suppliers’ prices. Some companies were forced to shut down. Others consolidated to survive. All this further disrupted the already tangled supply chain.
According to Bivens, whether those transactions were good or bad depends on which side of the deal you are on.
“One person’s income is another person’s cost,” he said.
Not Happening Fast Enough
Bivens said enacting and enforcing strong antitrust policies would “level the playing field.” This would hasten the reduction of inflation, which he said is already underway, although it is trending very slowly.
“It’s not happening fast enough for most of us,” he said.
Zittel pointed out that, as a farmer, he has practically no control over market prices, the weather, and other forces that impact his business. In addition, he said that the state and federal labor regulations, including minimum wage laws, control 50 percent of his business costs.
“Farmers are price takers, not price makers,” Zittel said.
Lee and Zittel disagreed with Bivens’ solution. They said a better plan is to reduce regulation and allow businesses to expand . Gordon Gray, of the American Action Forum agreed. He told the committee that the solution to inflation is basic.
“Increase the supply,” Gray said.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/08/2023 - 19:05 Close
Thu, 08 Jun 2023 22:55:00 +0000 "Chaos": McCarthy Throws Tantrum, Cancels Votes For Rest Of Week After Freedom Caucus Fracas
"Chaos": McCarthy Throws Tantrum, Cancels Votes For Rest Of Week After Freedom Caucus Fracas
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) canceled votes for the rest of the week and sent lawmakers home for the weekend, after
Read more.....
"Chaos": McCarthy Throws Tantrum, Cancels Votes For Rest Of Week After Freedom Caucus Fracas
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) canceled votes for the rest of the week and sent lawmakers home for the weekend, after a revolt by 11 members of the House Freedom Caucus banded together to grind proceedings to a halt in protest of the speaker caving to Democrats during last week's compromise to raise the debt ceiling.
"There’s a little chaos going on," McCarthy told reporters Wednesday evening at the Capitol, shortly after discussions with the hard-liners went nowhere.
"This is the difficulty," said McCarthy, adding "Some of these members don’t know what to ask for."
Tuesday marked the first time in more than two decades that a speaker had been unable to muster the votes for a procedural step to begin debate on a bill on the House floor, according to C-Span. With the 11 GOP defections, and Democrats also voting against the procedural measure to advance bills, it failed on a 206-220 vote.
McCarthy mostly projected his customary optimism, predicting that the two sides would resolve their differences soon. Yet he showed flashes of frustration during the day and admitted the protest took him by surprise . -Bloomberg
"I feel blindsided," McCarthy told reporters, apparently oblivious to the fact that breaking the very promises that got him elected Speaker might have consequences.
"Five people can create problems," he continued. "You’re not going to get 100% of what you want — so you can’t take hostages. "
The Epoch Times notes the GOP hardliners' grievances;
The conservative group’s grievances centered around what they claim are forceful tactics by the GOP leadership team and a failure to honor agreements made with them during McCarthy’s election as speaker.
McCarthy made concessions to the hardliners during his challenging 15-ballot election as speaker . Some of those hardliners later took part in the procedural revolt on Tuesday. They claim that McCarthy reneged on his commitments regarding the Fiscal Responsibility Act.
McCarthy expressed confidence in his speakership on Wednesday night, saying that he expected challenges from “a small majority” of outspoken members with “strong opinions” who understand media tactics. He emphasized the need for unity among Republicans while acknowledging the importance of listening to and respecting different perspectives.
“I will listen to them. I will respect them all. But at the end of the day, we’ve got to come together as one, ” he said.
When questioned about frustrations among other Republican lawmakers regarding the delay caused by the House Freedom Caucus members, McCarthy shifted the focus to his concerns about government interference in dictating Americans’ use of gas stoves.
He suggested that the situation wouldn’t have arisen without the Biden administration, saying, “It’s weird that you even have to have this [bill].”
He also expressed doubt that the 11 members, mostly from the House Freedom Caucus, truly wanted to align themselves with Biden’s approach of “dictat[ing] to the American public what type of stove they can have.”
As previously reported by The Epoch Times, there have been complaints from congressional lawmakers about alleged pressure tactics and threats of retaliation against members who voted against the debt limit bill, known as the Fiscal Responsibility Act.
Rep. Andrew Clyde (R-Ga.) claimed that GOP House leaders warned him that it would be challenging to advance a bill he sponsored if he voted against the act. However, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) denied that any such threat was made.
Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) claimed that Rep. Diana Harshbarger (R-Tenn.) faced “harassment” from multiple members in an effort to influence her vote.
A Capitol Hill staffer familiar with GOP leadership stated that no coercive tactics originated from McCarthy.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/08/2023 - 18:55 Close
Thu, 08 Jun 2023 22:45:00 +0000 CEO: "I Talked To 48 Lenders About Debt For A New Apartment Project. Zero Came Back With A Bid"
CEO: "I Talked To 48 Lenders About Debt For A New Apartment Project. Zero Came Back With A Bid"
CEO: "I Talked To 48 Lenders About Debt For A New Apartment Project. Zero Came Back With A Bid"
Less than two months ago, we conveyed an anecdote from One River Asset Management CIO Eric Peters, which showed just how challenging it has become to obtain debt funding, to wit:
“Credit started tightening six to nine months ago,” said the developer, a close friend, entrepreneur, with large residential projects across the nation. “It started with the money center banks,” he continued. “This pushed us to regional banks for our latest projects, but then SVB happened.” The market froze.
“The lender for our latest 30-story project in a tier-one city backed out, so we scrambled, and spoke with well over 100 banks. Not one will provide financing.” His firm is a leader in their market niche. A strong track record.
Confirming just how tight credit has become, and the dire observations from the Senior Loan Officers Survey that took place not long after and which showed that it is now next to impossible for even quality borrowers to obtain new credit, today Bloomberg writes that even Howard Hughes Corp., a Texas-based real estate developer that counts hedge fund manager Bill Ackman as its chairman, is struggling to find viable financing for new apartment projects as lenders pull back.
Chief Executive Officer David O’Reilly said he reached out to dozens of lenders with a pitch for a new project in The Woodlands, a master-planned community in the Houston area.
"Zero showed up and gave me a bid,” he said. “I talked to 48 of them."
Howard Hughes owns and develops various commercial real estate properties ranging from master-planned communities to offices and retail spaces. Its developments include condominiums in Hawaii and buildings in the Seaport area of Manhattan. Pershing Square Capital Management, the investment manager founded by Bill Ackman, owns about a third of Howard Hughes’s stock. Expect Bill to soon post an (unnecessarily wordy) tweet in which the billionaire cries (literally, most likely) about the (non-existent) state of CRE lending.
As we discussed in April , property developers and owners - but really everyone else too - are grappling with a financing market that’s freezing up as concerns mount about commercial real estate. Owners, particularly of office buildings, are struggling to pay debt as borrowing costs surged, leading to defaults and negotiations with lenders.
Other developers including billionaire Ross Perot Jr. have warned that it’s getting harder for real estate firms to get construction loans.
While the pressure has been most acute on the office sector, the pain is extending to apartment landlords, who have benefited from a surge in rent growth during the pandemic. Now, many owners are seeing high borrowing costs and a surge in expenses erase their profits. Meanwhile, prices for apartment buildings have dropped 21% over the past year, according to Green Street. And ironically, as developers remain credit-strapped, there is just not enough rental supply which means that rents across the country keep on rising in a time where nobody can afford a 7% mortgage.
Lenders are also focused on working out existing loans, while shying away from providing any new ones. That’s complicating apartment projects for developers such as Howard Hughes, even as the firm sees strong demand from renters. The already built part of its Woodlands community is more than 96% leased with double-digit rent growth.
The rent growth “sounds good, except I’m upset because it means I didn’t build the next building fast enough,” O’Reilly said.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/08/2023 - 18:45 Close
Thu, 08 Jun 2023 22:25:00 +0000 China's Persistent Gold Accumulation: A Seven-Month Surge In Holdings
China's Persistent Gold Accumulation: A Seven-Month Surge In Holdings
China's Persistent Gold Accumulation: A Seven-Month Surge In Holdings
Via GoldTelegraph.com,
In an unabated buying spree, China has continued to expand its gold reserves for a seventh consecutive month, reinforcing the sustained global demand for the precious metal among central banks.
As per Wednesday’s data from the People’s Bank of China, the nation’s gold holdings saw an approximately 16-ton increase in May.
This surge brings the total stockpile to roughly 2,092 tons, following an addition of 144 tons from November through the previous month.
In the wake of escalating geopolitical uncertainty and persistent global inflation, central banks worldwide set a record in gold purchases last year. Despite experiencing a significant drop in the first quarter of this year, according to the World Gold Council, market analysts expect the strong buying trend to persist.
A recent council survey disclosed that around a quarter of global central banks plan to bolster their holdings over the forthcoming year. This comes amidst mounting skepticism regarding the future role of the US dollar.
Ruth Crowell, the Chief Executive Officer of the London Bullion Market Association, in an interview with Bloomberg TV, predicted that this robust demand from central banks is set to continue through the year.
The collective purchases of central banks accounted for nearly one-fourth of the global gold demand last year.
This ongoing procurement is expected to provide support to gold prices, which hit an all-time high in May. In the first quarter of the year, only Singapore outpaced China in terms of gold purchases.
China’s intensified gold acquisition, which commenced in November, is the first since a 10-month rally that concluded in September 2019. The previous significant inflow ended in late 2016 (though many question the official data, suggesting China's gold holdings are considerably larger).
In the meantime, the People’s Bank of China reported a decrease in the country’s end-May foreign currency reserves, which dropped from $3.20 trillion to $3.18 trillion compared to the preceding month.
[ZH: China is not alone, Russia has also been accumulating Gold reserves... and at the same time, the level of Treasury holdings between the two nations has plummeted...
De-dollarization is accelerating in 2023.]
Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/08/2023 - 18:25 Close
Thu, 08 Jun 2023 22:05:00 +0000 Biden Calls Bribery Allegations "Bunch Of Malarkey" - Claims "I'm Honest"
Biden Calls Bribery Allegations "Bunch Of Malarkey" - Claims "I'm Honest"
During a Thursday joint press conference with UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, President Joe Biden called allegations by the House Oversight Committee of his in
Read more.....
Biden Calls Bribery Allegations "Bunch Of Malarkey" - Claims "I'm Honest"
During a Thursday joint press conference with UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, President Joe Biden called allegations by the House Oversight Committee of his involvement in an international bribery scheme are a "bunch of malarkey."
The comments mark the first time Biden has publicly commented on on GOP claims that he was directly involved in such a scheme, the Daily Caller reports, nothing that Republicans on the Committee have obtained access to an FBI document earlier in the day after threatening FBI Director Chris Wray with contempt for stonewalling on the material.
https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1666883364911972386?s=20 Republican Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, who sits on the committee, told the Daily Caller that the information in the document “implicates Joe Biden in a pay-to-play scheme bribery scheme to get a prosecutor fired that was investigating Burisma where Hunter Biden sat on the board.”
The FBI initially didn’t want to show the committee members the FD-1023 document in fears of exposing the identity of the source who made the allegations against Biden. Greene said committee members were not allowed to take notes and that the FBI informant is “extremely credible.” -Daily Caller
After NY Post journalist Steven Nelson asked Biden on Thursday for his response to the allegations, Biden replied:
"Where’s the money? I’m joking ," adding "It's a bunch of malarkey."
VIDEO
The document in question is part of a larger House Oversight investigation including Hunter Biden and his connections to foreign prostitutes, Greene told the Caller last month.
The House Oversight Committee published a report on May 10 alleging that the Biden family received $10 million from foreign assets in Romania and China while Joe Biden was vice president.
The White House has previously criticized the Republican investigation into the Biden family. White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said he had not read the report, but that he had “no” national security concerns about it. -Daily Caller
At another point in the Q&A, Biden claimed he has never directed the DOJ to charge anyone with anything.
Not a joke...
Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/08/2023 - 18:05 Close
Thu, 08 Jun 2023 21:44:00 +0000 "Worse Than Yesterday": Dense Wildfire Smoke Moving Over Nation's Capital
"Worse Than Yesterday": Dense Wildfire Smoke Moving Over Nation's Capital
Update (1130ET):
The good news: Mayor Eric Adams of New York said Thursday morning that "smo
Read more.....
"Worse Than Yesterday": Dense Wildfire Smoke Moving Over Nation's Capital
Update (1130ET):
The good news: Mayor Eric Adams of New York said Thursday morning that "smoke models are not indicating another large plume over the city," and there is a chance of "significant improvement" in air quality on Friday.
The bad news: Air quality indices in many Northeast and Mid-Atlantic cities are registering at "hazardous" levels.
The Mid-Atlantic states bear the brunt of the Canadian wildfire smoke today, while Northeast states may see relief as soon as Friday.
* * *
Update (0925ET):
Well, some major papers in the Northeast don't seem too enthusiastic about Canada right now. Here are a few of the front pages (courtesy of CNBC's Carl Quintanilla ):
* * *
Update (0710ET):
The FAA has reported this morning's first flight disruption at LaGuardia Airport due to the wildfire smoke-induced low visibility, which has resulted in the grounding of inbound flights.
* * *
As dawn broke on Thursday in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic areas, smoke from hundreds of Canadian wildfires cast a persistent haze and could last another day. The polluted air from our northern neighbors sent air quality in major metro areas to levels worse than in India, sending people with severe health issues such as asthma to the hospital, disrupting air travel, and even postponing professional sporting events. Video clips from New York City on Wednesday evening reminded us of scenes from the movie Blade Runner 2049 .
According to a New York Times analysis of weather models, the worst of the smoky air will last in NYC through Thursday morning. A dense haze is expected across a large swath of the Baltimore–Washington metropolitan area throughout the day.
Air quality website AirNow shows the level of particulate matter in the air from smoke is extremely "hazardous" for many metro areas across the Mid-Alantic to the Northeast.
Meteorologist Rob Guarino tweeted peak smoky air will be Thursday morning as "much better air quality" will be seen late afternoon.
There are still apocalyptic skies and hazardous air stinging eyes and causing dry coughs for millions this morning.
Earthcam footage of Midtown around 0622 ET.
East Coast folks are getting a dose of what it's like to live on the West Coast.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 06/08/2023 - 17:44 Close